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2damnhype

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Posts posted by 2damnhype

    R.E.B.U.S.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: R.E.B.U.S. WFTE - 3 from 3 great start No reason why we can't post them up in a separate thread is there? The only thing with betting on these 'each of two' markets is that you have to get a high strike rate in order to get (and stay) in profit, but we will see how we go til the end of the regular season.

    R.E.B.U.S.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Overs WFTE no not tried it the other way, but no reason why we can't!! There is one game with both pitchers > 5 tonight SF @ PIT and the line is currently around 9.5 Will get a spreadsheet going and give it a couple of weeks to see, then might put a separate thread up.

    R.E.B.U.S.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: R.E.B.U.S. Cheers WFTE, started with a winner, just. As for shopping around for odds/lines, struggle for access on weekends and evenings, so whilst I will be shopping around I may not end up with the best line out there. Last nights odds were from Canbet, I will quote the bookie in future, although it is more than likely gonna be one of the 'British' books (+ probably Bet&Win). Another thing is that if there are different lines available I will always take the highest line, so that I have more chance of getting a winner. Will update the performance thing tomorrow. :ok

    R.E.B.U.S.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Really Easy Baseball Unders System Okay, as I have said in the sports forum, I have been having a few bets on the Baseball Run Totals, based upon the ERA of the listed pitchers. I have not yet tried to add any modifications (for which am I open to advice), so will use this thread to identify the qualifiers and see how we go. For a game to qualify both listed pitchers ERA for the last 5 starts must be less than 3.00. This information is available free each day from mlb.com. Obviously dependent upon the stats there may blanks days and other days on which several matches qualify. Will start off with a 100pt bank and will just stick to 5pt singles throughout. I will also try to complete all the required yield stuff etc after each day so I don't get :spank Edit: Sorry forgot to say, I am just trialling the system here, I shall not necessary be parting with any hard earned cash based on the selections the criteria churn out.

    Baseball Queries

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    I have noticed that there is more baseball being discussed here than before, so I was hoping that someone could give me any info on the following. I have had a few bets on the totals over the last few weeks, my bets have always been on the Under and I have only bet when both of the two pitchers ERA for the last 5 games is less than 3.00 This is probably not a sound basis for any sort of system, but I was hoping that with some refinement it might be of use. What scores do not contribute to the ERA? On average how many innings per game does the starting pitcher continue for? Is there any way of finding this information out before the start of a game? Can I find out who the replacement pitchers will be? and the biggie: Are the starting pitchers the most influential factor in determining the run totals? Any help (links or books) would be much appreciated cheers :ok

    133rd British Open Golf

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 133rd British Open Golf I love watching the golf, but as anyone who has ever read any of my golf posts knows I cannot pick a winner to save my life. So instead of giving the players I am betting on as a guide I will give the list so that you can safely pass them over, and hopefully save yourselves a few quid. Stephen Ames - having a tremendous season, just broke his duck on the PGA Tour after weeks of consistently high finishes. This is only his 6th start in the Open, spread over the last 12 years, but he has made the cut on each ocassion, and had his highest finish at Troon (tied 5th) in 1997. Best price 40/1 Sergio Garcia - another having a decent season, I have said before that he does not get in contention enough, but he is very consistent in Major championships. He has played in the open 7 times, and missed the cut just once as a professional, he has finished top 10 in the last three years. Best Price 18/1 I wish everyone the best of luck with their picks and am looking forward to some great telly watching over the weekend. :ok

    Tour de France

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    In-running For the first year I have noticed that there are a few bookies betting on the stages in-running, in no particular order: Stan James Bet365 Bet&Win Betfair. I have been watching these markets on and off during this year's tour (I have work to do during the day so cannot spend much time), and on numerous ocassions I have seen some pretty hefty differences of opinion between the bookies and on betfair. Take today's stage where there was a breakaway, Stan and Bet&win had the two riders covered in a 'field' option that was odds on, bet365 where just quoting those two riders (4/6 ,11/10) whilst at the same time on betfair each rider was available at about 5 or 6/1!!! Although earlier in the stage they had been traded much shorter. Today the breakaway failed (just) and the brave betfair layers kept the cash. but i think as bookmakers strive to cover more sports in-running there will me opportunities to take advantage. I don't have any knowledge to know how big a time gap a 2 two man breakaway needs before they can be considered '@#%$ & flown' but it would seem the betfair layers had a much better idea that the bookies traders. any thoughts?

    US Open Golf

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Thought I had better start a thread, was pretty of interest in The Masters, where everyone backed Mickelson except me :lol Just the one match bet for me Fred Jacobson to beat Adam Scott The last time I opposed Scott he went on to win the Tournament (Players Championship) but I am not scared to take him on again. Jacobsen has been a very consistent performer on the PGA Tour this year with several top 10 finishes, he has missed the cut just once (WD once). This is his second US Open after having finished 5th last year on his debut. He has dedicated himself to the PGA Tour and it is paying dividends – a definite European Star (and a very live prospect for Top European honours this week although Padraig may pip him) Adam Scott has had more success than the Swede, but has missed the cut on 2 of his 3 visits to the States since his (impressive) victory at Sawgrass. As I have said before he will be an absolute star, but even the best players go through leaner times. I also reckon he would benefit from committing to one Tour rather than trying to play both Europe and the States. Scott has played in the Open only twice, and he has missed the cut both times (admittedly by only 1 shot last year) Edit: 9/10 with Totesport

    Challenge Cup.......

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Challenge Cup....... Round 4 Bradford 10 v St Helens 30 Wigan 38 v Widnes 12 Round 5 St Helens 24 v Leeds 14 Limouxin 20 v Wigan 80 Quarters St Helens 31 v Hull 26 Wigan 20 v Wakefield 4 Semis St Helens 46 v Huddersfield 6 Wigan 30 v Warrington 18 As can be seen above St Helens have had by far the toughest route to Cardiff, they have had to beat all of the teams that currently occupy the top 5 in the Superleague table, and if they beat Wigan (currently 6th) they will complete a remarkable set. Saints have only lost once this season, when their youth team were rolled over by Bradford, Ian Millward played that by the book, but didn’t win many friends in or out of St Helens by his actions, but I don’t think that will bother him or his team, he is there to win trophies and if then win then he will see it as a job done. Love him or loath him (I used to fall into the latter camp, but am slowing moving the other way) Millward goes his own way and you have to respect the guy for that. In comparison Wigan have had it easy, their only trip away from the JJB proved to be a cakewalk in France. But, as will all sports, you can only beat what is put in front of you and that is precisely what Mike Gregory’s team have done. Wigan had an indifferent start to the season but are currently on a decent run, undefeated since the draw against Saints on Good Friday. Mike Gregory has been proved able to take the role he inherited from Stuart Raper. Final Teams: St Helens Paul Wellens, Ade Gardner, Martin Gleeson, Willie Talau, Darren Albert, Jason Hooper, Sean Long, Nick Fozzard, Keiron Cunningham, Keith Mason, Chris Joynt, Lee Gilmour, Paul Sculthorpe Subs: Jon Wilkin, Dominic Feaunati, Ricky Bibey, Mark Edmondson Wigan Kris Radlinski, David Hodgson, Sean O'Loughlin, Kevin Brown, Brett Dallas, Danny Orr, Adrian Lam, Craig Smith, Terry Newton, Quentin Pongia, Gareth Hock, Danny Tickle, Andy Farrell Subs:Terry O'Connor, Danny Sculthorpe, Mick Cassidy, Stephen Wild Looking back over the last few seasons, Wigan have definitely had the upper hand in meetings between the two sides, the won all four meetings last season. But I reckon that St Helens will come through this as winners, gaining revenge for their Final defeat of 2002 and will (just) cover the 6 points spread. Can get 10/11 with Paddy Power and Victor Chandler. Not sure whether the roof will be closed to blot out any rain. Looking forward to a cracking clash whichever way it goes :ok

    HP Classic of New Orleans

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Right will try again this week, gonna review my ‘strategy’ if I manage to post another loser. Jerry Kelly to beat David Toms Neither player has played since the Masters. Kelly has yet to miss a cut this season, and has had 4 top ten finishes from 9 starts. His record at English Turn is not bad either, in 5 visits he has missed the cut once, but finished top 20 on the other 4 occasions (fifth last year). David Toms looked to be recovering well from his off season surgery, a narrow loss to Padraig in the Matchplay was followed up with a 5th at Doral. But he has missed his last 3 cuts on the bounce. He has won around this course, but in his 11 visits has missed the cut 4 times and has only finished top 10 one other time. I would look to see Kelly extend his run of cuts made, and Toms time in the doldrums to last (hopefully) for at least another week. There is still a bit of 1.87 available on Betfair which works out as a shade below 5/6 after commission Good Luck!! :ok

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