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arsenalfh

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Posts posted by arsenalfh

    BBOTD 21st June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 21st June

    Royal Ascot 4:25 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes(Group 1) (1) 6f At the prices and after watching over a few videos, I am after having a bet on the French raider American Devil here who looks far too big at 22/1 in my own opinion. The horse has only been with French trainer Libaud a short space of time but he won his two races for him already, the most recent being a Group 3 success at Longchamp. That was over 7 furlongs but he has a high cruising speed and I certainly think he has enough ability to get involved here. Interestingly, Libaud has only ever had one runner at Ascot in the past and that horse, Vision D'Etat, won the Group 1 Prince of Wales Stakes so he clearly knows how to win a Group 1. American Devil WIN @ 22/1 Sky Bet!
    Into eights! Good luck Aidy!

    BBOTD 21st June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 21st June Ascot 3:45 I get the feeling Hillstar is being underrated here. Back at Ascot on good to firm ground we should see Hillstar at his best giving him a good chance of beating Stoute's other runner Telescope. Although Ryan Moore has gone with Telescope and he too should relish the conditions it's hard to pick a winner between the two. However at this price with Hillstar back at Ascot in his favoured conditions he's a far more attractive bet to me. Hillstar - 1pt Win 11/2 Coral

    BBOTD > Friday June 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday June 20th Ascot 2:30 Bazzana ran superbly last time out in Windsor where she won by 10L. The time was impressive and she looks like a promising filly although that run was on soft. Martyn Meade's Venezia put in a very credible effort yesterday afternoon and with Ryan Moore booked I can see Bazzana going very well here provided she takes to the ground. Bazzana - 1pt Win 10/1 Coral

    Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 1 Tuesday 17th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 1 Tuesday 17th 3:45 Ascot Hot Secret is being well backed after his win in the Temple Stakes but Pearl Secret deserves more attention running very well in behind losing by only half a length. That day Pearl Secret gave away 8lbs and looked to be closing in before Hot Streak held him off well in the dying stages. Pearl Secret finished third in this contest last year and the way he finishes races strongly should give him an advantage over Hot Streak coming up the hill to to the finish. Hot Secret looks a terrific prospect but he's up 2lbs after his win in the Temple Stakes and looking at the prices there looks to be some value in Pearl Secret in double figures. Sole Power is a decent shout as well but I just prefer Pearl Secret here at these prices. Pearl Secret - 1pt Win 10/1 BetVictor 16:25 Ascot Having seen numerous runners from the 2000 Guineas run blinders since it's worth looking at Toormore and War Command to continue the trend. Both had very impressive form as two year olds and will show more over the season but I'm tending to side with Toormore here. Connections were disappointed at his Guineas run and suggested his lightning quick performance in the Craven 16 days earlier may have effected him at Newmarket. Kingman went on and won the Irish Guineas in style but I can't take him at that price with Night of Thunder back and two colts open to so much improvement as the likes of Kingston Hill and The Grey Gatsby have shown. With the Ryan Moore back on Toormore as well I think there's some value here. Toormore - 1pt Win 9/1 BetVictor

    BBOTD ''Tuesday'' 17th June 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD ''Tuesday'' 17th June 2014 16:25 Ascot Having seen numerous runners from the 2000 Guineas run blinders since it's worth looking at Toormore and War Command to continue the trend. Both had very impressive form as two year olds and will show more over the season but I'm tending to side with Toormore here. Connections were disappointed at his Guineas run and suggested his lightning quick performance in the Craven 16 days earlier may have effected him at Newmarket. Kingman went on and won the Irish Guineas in style but I can't take him at that price with Night of Thunder back and two colts open to so much improvement as the likes of Kingston Hill and The Grey Gatsby have shown. With the Ryan Moore back on Toormore as well I think there's some value here. Toormore - 1pt Win 9/1 BetVictor

    BBOTD > Sunday June 15th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Sunday June 15th Chantilly 2:45 The favourite hasn't proven enough to be this short and Miss France might find the ground to soft here so I think it's worth taking a look at the French Guineas. Avenir Certain ran a stormer ahead of Veda who is heading for the Coronation Stakes later this month and kept both Xcellence and Bawina over 3 lengths behind at Longchamp. Although there are a few concerns about the longer trip this unbeaten filly is sired by a Group 1 winner over 1m 2f and avoided the shorter Coronation Stakes for this race so I think she can stay the distance. I've also had a small bet on Bawina who was hampered and finished strongly in the French Guineas but my selection here is Avenir Certain. Avenir Certain - 1pt Win 9/2 BetVictor

    BBOTD > Saturday June 14th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Saturday June 14th Going to give this a shot over the summer! Ambiance was promising early on last season before tailing off so the move to new trainer Roger Varian may be just what the colt needs. He raced at Grade 1 and 2 level last season showing the faith his former trainer had in his potential and if he can show that sort of level in this listed race tomorrow he should be hard to beat. His first run for his new yard was disappointing but with a race under his belt and blinkers attached for the first time tomorrow he could be set for a return to form. Favourite G Force and Strategical are stepping up in class here and may find it tough from wide draws as no one has won this race from outside stall 9 before. Wind Fire has also shown promise but again has an unfavourable draw and has had two disappointing runs this season already. Roger Varian's horses are running well and from stall 2 with blinkers fitted for the first time I think Ambiance has a chance here. Ambiance 1pt Win Coral

    Royal Ascot 2014 - discussion thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot 2014 - discussion thread Really looking forward to this race I have to say. The 2000 Guineas seems to be the key race in regards to form this season with a number of horses running blinders since so perhaps it's time for War Command or Toormore to run a big race? I backed Toormore in the Guineas where he disappointed but he was last years Champion 2 year old and still beat Kingston Hill and The Great Gatsby who impressed in the Derbies since. Still has another level to find I think but turning 4L on Night of Thunder and Kingman may be too tough.

    epsom derby

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: epsom derby I think Orchestra is a really interesting contender. Although Romsdal ran him very close and didn't get a clean run at Chester, Orchestra really couldn't have traveled better and quickened well while the former seemed to be pushing near his limits. He won't mind a bit of cut in the ground and is proven over the distance. Will be interesting to see who Ryan Moore picks out of the remaining O'Brien horses but I really think Orchestra has some potential.

    World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting

    in World Cup 2022 Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting

    I think there is some money to be made on backing teams at larger odds who can nick second in their group then cashing out when their equity increases. Like croatia and Bosnia for example.
    Portugal and Chile spring to mind. Both teams are solid and have two of the best if not the best players in their positions. Ronaldo and Vidal will be a handful.

    Europa League Final > Sevilla v Benfica > Wednesday May 14th

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Europa League Final > Sevilla v Benfica > Wednesday May 14th Sevilla had some great chances but Benfica really bottled it I thought. Enzo Perez was a big miss in midfield as Benfica lacked a bit of that composure particularly in the first half and Gaitan was surprisingly shakey on the ball. Andre Gomes again did well in the first half but is very raw and we saw him dwell on the ball and make poor decisions when fatigue set in. Benfica weren't at their best but they had the chances to finish Sevilla off and were perhaps unlucky the referee didn't allow Cardozo to retake his penalty but they really should have closed out the game earlier.

    Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st

    Also, Enzo might be out as UEFA might still apply him a ban due to a supposed hit in the face of Chiellini, in the first half. Without him, Benfica will be less likely do suceed. Thursday I'll say a bit more about this one, but I think Juventus will eventually scrape through this one.
    Enzo available as expected. Would have been ridiculous if he was banned for the incident with Chiellini and I don't know why Juve even bothered lodging a complaint. What are your thoughts regarding the team line up? Fejsa is out but Gaitan and amazingly Salvio are available after the latter broke his arm just two weeks ago. My guess is that Salvio will only be used if Benfica are behind and need a goal because even with his arm protected like Drogba's at the world cup there's some risk involved. Do you think Almeida should be brought into the midfield to add some physicality? Gaitan out wide or in a midfield three?

    Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday May 1st Benfica rested pretty much their whole team at the weekend and I read earlier in the week that Gaitan and Fejsa will be available for the second leg which is a huge boost for the away side. Despite making so many changes for the cup semi final away at Porto and going down to 10 men after 30 minutes they still managed to hold on and beat Porto in penalties which just shows the confidence they have in themselves. That's twice Benfica have beaten Porto with 10 men most of the game in the last few weeks and despite Jackson missing several good chances in the first half there just seems to be a certain belief in Benfica squad which makes them so hard to beat. In the first leg Benfica were fortunate to come away with the win as Juve took control of the second half with Pogba in particular drifting out to the touchline which caused the home side to become outnumbered out wide. Luisao and Garay mopped up everything in front of their own box but out wide Benfica struggled when the intensity dropped and in the end it was from the wide areas where Juve found their away goal. However, Benfica were extremely dangerous when they managed to isolate Juve's slow defence and because the home side have to push for a goal Benfica will likely get some great chances on the break. Getting a result in Turin is an extremely tough ask especially if Jesus sticks with his offensive 4-2-2-2 which Juve really exposed but with Vidal returning and a lead in their hands surely Benfica will go for a a more defensive 4-5-1 allowing a central player to cover the wide areas. I thought this in the first leg though and Jesus stuck with the 4-2-2-2. If Jesus makes the necessary changes I can see Benfica going through as Juventus haven't been all that convincing and are pretty predictable but if we don't see anything different I feel Vidal and Pogba will dominate the game from the wide areas with Juventus winning the tie in the process. It's a really tough game to call and I'll probably avoid betting here but when Benfica announce the squad for the game I'll take another look. I'll also keep an eye out for news in Portugal regarding Jesus' approach to the game which will will be crucial to the result of this semi final I think.

    FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th I don't think it's a coincidence that Bayern's only midfielder who looks completely comfortable with Pep's style Thiago is Spanish. Martinez is also Spanish but he was brought up playing the Basque style of play and when he was linked to Barca under Pep they wanted to play him as a centre half. These Germans have been brought up playing a different type of football and Pep will need time to make his Bayern side truly effective and may need to look at La Liga for players if they are to return to the top of European football. I backed Madrid in the first leg and already backed them on the +0.5 AH for the same reasons. Bayern will play the same way as they have done all season allowing Madrid to pack their own half making them tough to break down and this will give Ronaldo, Benzema and Bale plenty of chances on the counter. Real should have been a few goals up before Bayern looked threatening at all and I think Bayern to score their first goal in the second half at 9/4 WilliamHill looks a very nice price as well. We've seen Bayern struggle to score in this competition time and time again until relatively late in the second half as fatigue sets in which happened against Arsenal and United. Although they didn't score Gotze and Muller had good chances during the dieing stages in Madrid as well. It seems as if Bayern often struggle to score until the opposition gets tired so that could be a good be but I usually don't bet on the goals market so I may just stick with my bet on Madrid.

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