[La Liga > December 13th - 16th]

Re: La Liga > December 13th - 16th Barcelona haven't dropped points at home in the league excluding two games against Real for over two years so it's no wonder they're priced under 1.2 for nearly every game. However tomorrow they face Villarreal and I think there's some very good value on show. Villarreal will miss key holding midfielder Bruno Soriano who is suspended and other star performer Cani is doubtful. Barca's front three of Alexis, Fabregas and Neymar are on fire at the moment and Jordi Alba is fit again. At these unusually high odds I've got to take the Barcelona victory. 7pts Barcelona @ 1.33 StanJames

[Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th]

Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th

fantastic post arsenalfh, but do u think arsenal will take the game to them? why wont arsenal play the possession game and be defensive like so many other teams who had the defensive mindframe when coming to etihad? see what worries me is that Arsenal against the bigger teams they have been found out, and even against Everton last week they were outplayed in the first half Arsenal’s record against the rest of the top 7 for the whole of last season and this season so far: P16 W4 D6 L6 A win percentage of just 25%. Compared to their results against the rest of the league for the same time period: P37 W28 D6 L3 A win percentage of 75.68%.

I don't really like that stat because ten of those games came before we saw a big change in the way Wenger set up his side. After the defeat at White Hart Lane Wenger has built from the back up with a more counter attacking game and we've seen a massive change in Arsenal's results. Arsenal are now only 8th in the average possession table compared to years before when Arsenal topped the possession stats every season. Wenger used to focus on keeping the ball in the opposition half with a very high line at the back, something which didn't work and something we don't see often anymore. Since the change to a more balanced approach Arsenal have beaten Bayern, Napoli, Dortmund, Tottenham and Liverpool so I don't think beating the top sides is a problem, the problem is the lack of chances being created against the top sides. Arsenal's defence can keep them in any game really but you need to couple this with a well functioning attack to beat the best on a regular basis. Everton have been superb this season as well don't forget. They've played all the top 7 sides and only find themselves 7 points off the top. A real quality striker that can unlock a defence and provide that outlet for Ozil and Cazorla really prevents the Arsenal side from reaching the very top. Against the top sides you really have to be clinical and take your chances when you can but without any penetrating runs from the forwards Arsenal are struggling a bit at the moment and that's why I think Arsenal haven't shown their full potential against the top sides despite some good results. Walcott is key for me as well, he's not one of the best strikers around but he does provide a constant threat to the opposition goal through his pace and movement. If Walcott fires and strikes a partnership with Ozil Arsenal will be far more dangerous in attack and begin to create more opportunities against the top sides. I don't think Wenger has an option but to take the game to City. No one bust their gut to get forward against Napoli and result was pretty disastrous, the players and Wenger seemed to think a goal was unnecessary and just soaked up a ton of pressure. Against teams with players like Insigne and Higuain you're not going to keep a clean sheet against constant pressure, you've got to attack at some point and give your defence a break. The defence kept Arsenal in the game long enough for the attackers to take the game to Napoli but when you're playing a team of playmakers who's going to make those defence splitting runs to apply pressure on the opposition defence? Wenger is known for being stubborn but surely he realises that you won't get anything from City unless you test their shaky defence with pace and energy. If Walcott starts I think it's a big statement of intent from Wenger but if we see Ozil, Cazorla and Wilshere all at once Arsenal will likely be relying on Ramsey to provide the movement in attack and goalscoring threat which will make it easy for City. Keep in mind Arsenal didn't have Ramsey at this level and Ozil last season who have definitely lifted the team to a higher level. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the results against the big sides last season but concentrate on the lack of chances created against, United, Everton and Napoli recently. Walcott may not be fully match fit but he'll certainly help this chance creation problem.

[Ligue 2 > December 13th - 16th]

Re: Ligue 2 > December 13th - 16th Thanks for the tips meatman, seems like you were a bit unlucky with Troyes and Nancy picking up a red card in the first half. We all have poor days, unfortunately I took Brest and Nancy -0.5!

[Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th]

Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th Tomorrow the two favourites for the title go head to head at the Etihad following differing performances in the Champions League. City won away at European Champions Bayern while Arsenal produced their worst performance since the opening day defeat against Aston Villa. Problem with Arsenal recently has been the lack of goal threats which was highlighted on Wednesday night. With Ramsey and Wilshere rested Giroud had no one making runs in behind the defence to link up with leading to a completely blunt performance by the Arsenal attack. Giroud can't lead the line without runners making moves off him because he just isn't a proper goal threat and playmakers like Ozil and Cazorla need players making those threatening runs to perform at their top level. The good news for Arsenal fans is that last seasons top goalscorer Theo Walcott looks set to be involved after Wenger revealed he has regained his sharpness after two months out injured. Walcott will make those runs in behind which should give Ozil and Cazorla the option to thread the ball through to which should add another dimension to the Arsenal attack with Ramsey returning also helping in that regard. Cazorla hasn't hit last seasons form yet so I expect the in form Wilshere to regain his place in the starting line up and Flamini will likely partner Ramsey in the middle as I would expect Arteta to struggle against an athletic City midfield with his lack of pace and strength. Sagna may return pending a late fitness test with the rest of the defence unchanged. Big game for Gibbs as well whose form has dropped in recent weeks and I would actually prefer to see Monreal starting. -Predicted Line Up Szczesny, Gibbs, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Sagna, Ramsey, Flamini, Wilshere, Ozil, Walcott, Giroud City will be full of confidence after their midweek win over Bayern and will look to keep their 100% home record alive. City have looked pretty invincible at home but I do get the feeling Bayern were the only side who really took the game to them at the Etihad. Can a defence really look so solid at home and then so weak away, conceding more than six times the amount of goals? I don't think so, I believe they're still vulnerable at the back and sides like Tottenham and United played the game completely in their hands. Kompany's aggressive pressing of Rooney against United wasn't really taken advantage of until after 70 minutes when United started getting runners in the space left behind the City centre back and they could have scored more than once if they had done this earlier in the game. Kompany does like playing an aggressive role and if he pushes right on top of Giroud there will be space for Walcott to exploit. Fernandinho and Toure also like to push forward which should allow space for Ozil in between the defence and midfield where he can pick out Walcott. However City's attack has been superb and it's hard for any team to stop them in this form. If they can overload the flanks with Clichy and Zabaleta pushing forward Arsenal's fullbacks will be in for a really tough time and this is an area where City could get a lot joy, as Napoli did with Maggio and Armero bombing forward, and not to forget Everton where both Oviedo and Coleman had good games. Arsenal's wide men really don't offer the fullbacks a lot of protection and if Sagna misses out Arsenal will be dealt a huge blow. Silva started midweek but I think Pellegrini may stick with Navas there, rest of the side really picks itself. -Predicted Line Up Pantilimon, Clichy, Komapny, Demichelis, Zabaleta, Fernandinho, Toure, Nasri, Navas, Aguero, Negredo Tough game to predict as I think Arsenal can definitely get something from the game if they really take the game to City and attack their defence unlike so many sides who have come to the Etihad recently but on the other hand Arsenal do have weaknesses down the flank where City have some real quality plus Zabaleta who's probably the best attacking fullback in the league. City also have numerous players completely rested and have had an extra day since their Champions League game but at odds on I don't believe there's value there. Goal markets equally tough to predict as Arsenal have been very solid but also struggled with goals recently, then you have Walcott returning who will be a vital player for Arsenal and City's attack on top form. No bet for me, I'm going to sit back and enjoy the match hoping Arsenal can get a good result but I hope this preview helps the rest of you with your bets for the game.

[Ligue 2 > December 13th - 16th]

Re: Ligue 2 > December 13th - 16th Why do Lens never seem to play on Fridays?

[France Ligue 1 (6-8 Dec)]

Re: France Ligue 1 (6-8 Dec) Didn't see the whole game but for me Monaco were poor. Ajaccio's tactical set upe worked well as they continuously forced Monaco wide by crowding the middle part of the pitch but you would expect Monaco to be a little more imaginative with playmakers like Moutinho and Rodriguez in their ranks. Falcao's ability to get on the end of crosses was definitely missed as Riviere and Martial really struggled to get on the end of anything.

[Cardiff City v Arsenal > Saturday November 30th]

Re: Cardiff City v Arsenal > Saturday November 30th

Believe me any other ordinary striker would have scored more than Giroud' date=' having behind Özil - Cazorla - Ramsey and Wilshere! Also any other strikers would have keep opposition's defenders busy as much as Giroud does[/quote'] I don't think Giroud is brilliant but he's come a long way this season. Great hold up and link up play but his lack of pace is a problem for Arsenal who transfer the ball from defence to attack so well. He doesn't score enough to be considered up there with Aguero and Suarez as well but calling him awful is a bit mad to say the least. He's well above that level.

[CSKA Moscow v FC Bayern München > Wednesday November 27th]

Re: CSKA Moscow v FC Bayern München > Wednesday November 27th

4pts Bayern to win to nil 31/20 BetVictor Fringe players or not the personnel on the field for Bayern in this match will be top quality and I still expect them to win this match. It may not be the runaway win we would expect in what will be tricky conditions but I think they’ll have too much quality for the Russian side. How much they will win by is difficult to assess so perhaps the best bet is just for them to win without conceding at a shade over 6/4. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cska-moscow-vs-bayern-munich-betting-bayern-can-prove-too-strong-for-russians-even-with-stars-missing

Really like this especially now that Doumbia and Dzagoev are out. CSKA will struggle to create chances and without some key attacking players I'm not convinced they'll be clinical enough to take any of few they get. Bayern will keep the ball and shut out the opposition as they have done in most off their games this season where they boast a fantastic defensive record. Odds too high here so I'm on this as well. Good call kevshat. :ok

[World Cup Qualifiers European Play-Offs - Friday November 15th]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers European Play-Offs - Friday November 15th Sweden seem to concede a good few goals against the decent sides especially away from home and will find it tough to stop Ronaldo in this form. Even though he hasn't shown his best form in the qualifiers for Portugal his goal scoring record is remarkable this season and he looks unstoppable at the moment. At home Portugal will be looking to bring a lead to Sweden and with Ronaldo the main man in attack they'll be looking to him to provide the goals. 4pts Ronaldo anytime goalscorer at evens Bet365 (As short as 1.6 in many bookmakers!)

[Manchester United v Arsenal > Sunday November 10th]

Re: Manchester United v Arsenal > Sunday November 10th Lads Arsenal to win to nil was just a very small stakes suggestion considering the odds and Arsenal's defensive performances and results against the big sides in recent times. Watch any of our matches against the big sides since the defeat at White Hart Lane in February and a solid defence coupled with clinical counter attacking game is a reoccurring theme.

[La Liga > November 8th - 10th]

Re: La Liga > November 8th - 10th Anyone watched Villarreal this season? I've heard they have been very good but face an Atletico side who look like one of the best sides in Europe at the moment. The odds on Atletico look a little high but Villarreal have a great home record although they lost against Getafe last time out. Anyone have anymore thoughts on the game?

[Manchester United v Arsenal > Sunday November 10th]

Re: Manchester United v Arsenal > Sunday November 10th

Arsenal have a great midfield but IMO are well short in defence - BTTS is the way to go and Over 2.5 Adnan's trickery when running at a defence will trouble a very static Arsenal - especially Mertesacker - and worth a punt for first goal BTTS 1.62 @ Victor & Ladbrokes Over 2.5 1.8 @ Victor First goal Adnan @ 11 @ Ladbrokes

I really don't understand why I keep hearing this myth about Arsenal's weak defence. This is not the Arsenal side of 2011 who were shipping goals left right and centre. In 2013 our team has been solid and organised, especially in the big and important games as I mentioned earlier. We still concede when pushing forward looking for goals usually against the weaker sides, but can also comfortably sit back and soak up pressure when needed especially away from home where the pressure is on the home side to attack. We have conceded seven goals in our last 15 away games in all competitions which backs this up. Napoli, Tottenham and Liverpool (two good chances from sloppy passing though) barely got a sniff of our goal this season while Dortmund tested Szczesny twice on Wednesday and one was weak header. Secondly I can't really see how the Arsenal defence is static, yes Mertesacker is slow but he is flanked by Koscielny who is one of the most mobile CBs in the league. For all the criticism we hear about Mertesacker regarding his pace he is rarely exposed due to his excellent positioning and the pace of Kosciely, Sagna and Gibbs around him and in fact I think he has been superb this season. We always hear about how Arsenal are going to struggle facing tricky dribblers like Suarez, Reus and Sturridge but it never happens. Reus and Sturridge in particular looked completely average against us and Suarez was not much better. I expect Arsenal to go to Old Trafford and set up tightly as we have done in all our Champions League games as well as against Liverpool and Tottenham in the league. We'll certainly be a tough side to break down. Since the Tottenham game in February Wenger has altered our style and we're far more secure at the back. In fact all of our games against the so called "top" sides since then have been unders except one (Bayern 2-0, United 1-1, Tottenham 1-0, Napoli 2-0, Dormund 2-1, Liverpool 2-0 and Dortmund 1-0). I tend to stay away from the goal markets anyway but there is absolutely no value in overs here and backing unders is also dodgy with the firepower on show for me. Arsenal do not have a weak defence despite what goes around in the media and I expect a low scoring game.

[Manchester United v Arsenal > Sunday November 10th]

Re: Manchester United v Arsenal > Sunday November 10th As an Arsenal fan who watches every game what strikes me about this side now is not only the pace we play the ball around in the final third but the balance between defending and attacking we now have. Previously we would pile men forward in search of goals and always look to outscore the opposition but now we pick our moments to attack and defend and the results show significant improvement since the beginning of the year. For the first time in years we have a settled defence with some proper balance between aggressive pressing (Koscielny) and cover (Mertesacker) which are keeping even the best of forwards quiet. Attack remains the focus of this side but now when required we are comfortable soaking up the pressure and hitting sides on the break which we have seen in our big games since March, where we've won to nil at places such as Bayern and Dortmund. At home we have a similar record in recent times conceding against United and Dortmund but winning to nil against Tottenham, Napoli and Liverpool in games where the opposition created little if any real goalscoring chances. I think United will have trouble against our defence as a lot of the top European sides have had recently especially as Koscielny will play a similar role to Kompany's at the Etihad last month who kept the link between midfield and attack Rooney quiet most of the game. United failed to cope with this until late on when they got runners in behind Kompany but with the Mertesacker providing the cover this time things will be even tougher. The key for United will be the fullbacks pushing forward and the wide men overloading our fullbacks as I feel we have the advantage in the other areas. That's the problem with playing more central players out wide with Cazorla in particular leaving Gibbs exposed numerous times against Dortmund and when you have attacking fullbacks like Evra and Rafael they can cause damage. Evra has been excellent in attack this season and will be dangerous but if Rafael doesn't make it he'll be a huge blow as it's these areas where United can cause Arsenal problems. United have have shown signs of improvement but we've heard about Arsenal running out of steam for a month now and it just hasn't happened, in fact we look even more convincing now than before. Coming to old Trafford is a very tough ask but playing away seems to suit Arsenal more these days where the team can pick the moments to attack or sit back and use the the counter without the pressure of the home crowd pushing the team forward. Arsenal look really hard to beat away from home and will go to Old Trafford full of confidence after wins to nil over Liverpool and Dortmund. With 14 wins and a draw in Arsenal's last 15 away games and players like Flamini and Wilshere returning from injury I believe Arsenal will get a good result here. 2pts Arsenal to win to nil at 11/2 Coral 7pts Arsenal/Draw at 1.65 Betvictor Arsenal draw no bet is 5/4 at Coral for anyone interested.

[Atlético de Madrid v FK Austria Wien > Wednesday November 6th]

Re: Atlético de Madrid v FK Austria Wien > Wednesday November 6th I don't usually like betting on half time results but I'm going to make an exception today as I feel Atletico HT/FT at 1.45 BetVictor is far better value than 1.33 on the -1 handicap. As has been mentioned before Atletico have been winning at half time in all of their home games this season and I can't see them not doing the same today. Bilbao came flying out of the blocks at the weekend but Atletico still managed to be 2 nil up at the break and recorded another home win. Bilbao came back into the game in the second half when Atletico slowed down a bit possibly because they had their minds on the Champions League and should have scored as the game approached full time. I'm a bit wary of backing handicaps here after what happened yesterday and I wouldn't be surprised if Atletico turned their attention to the weekend in the second half like they seemed to do against Bilbao. Austria Wien showed a good account of themselves against Porto and Zenit from what I have heard as well so I don't think they'll be complete pushovers. Very confident of Atletico at HT/FT though and it looks like great combo material to take with either a Chelsea or Napoli win with all three as a treble paying 3.05 at Betvictor.

[Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday November 5th]

Re: Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday November 5th

If we talk about embarrassing away losses' date=' look at Leverkussens loss to Braunschweig this weekend. The latter being at best a mid table 2nd Bundesliga team who are getting beat left and right by mediocre Bundesliga sides. But none of you seems to take that in the equation whilst counting the loss to Volyn heavily? Think Shakthar are overpriced for a Bayer that is struggling with not only Braunschweig but was with Augsburg and Hoffenheim too. The Ukrainians have a score to settle and have the quality to give Leverkusen a very tough game. I feel like taking a small gamble tonight [b']2 points @ Shakthar to win @ 2.31 Pinnacle

I wouldn't say they struggled against Augsburg and Hoffenheim are a very good side. With a bit more luck Leverkusen would have scored a good few goals in the second half against Augsburg and won comfortably. The trio of Sam, Kiessling and Heung-Min is very dangerous with lots of pace and they will cause Shakthar problems who don't seem to be hitting top form yet with all these new signings. Leverkusen have been impressive this season and the the double chance on them looks very tempting to me.

[Olympiacos v Benfica > Tuesday November 5th]

Re: Olympiacos v Benfica > Tuesday November 5th I wouldn't be keen to put money on Benfica in their current shape. They may only be three points behind Porto but they haven't been playing well and with their CL record away from home I wouldn't be confident. Although Benfica won at the weekend the 3-0 their performance was less than convincing as Markovic looks like their only spark at the moment with others under performing and Salvio out injured. The first goal was a great long range strike from Cardozo, the second was an own goal and the third just a good piece of play from Markovic. They rarely looked like causing the Academica keeper trouble and if the opposition weren't so toothless in attack it would have been a close game. I don't really fancy anything in this game as I know little about Olympiakos but if you were looking at the win markets I wouldn't bet on Benfica in this form away from home.

[Manchester City v CSKA Moscow > Tuesday November 5th]

Re: Manchester City v CSKA Moscow > Tuesday November 5th City have been on fire at home so far this season with just the one defeat coming against a terrific Bayern side. Looking past that loss they've turned over everyone who's came to the Etihad comfortably including the 7-0 rout of Norwich at the weekend. City will be brimming with confidence after that result as seven different players got on the score sheet and Pellegrini has certainly got his attack playing some great football. Despite City's defensive weaknesses I can't see CSKA causing them too many problems as they've only managed just over four shots on target per game in the group and their league form hasn't been very convincing especially away from home. With City's attack in full flow and the midfield duo of Fernandinho and Toure who are more concerned with creating and scoring goals than providing adequate protection for the back four I can see City scoring a good few goals here. Unlike Bayern, CSKA do not have the quality to overrun the City midfield and make use of the space in there so I'm backing a comfortable victory for City. 5pts City -2.0 AH at 1.95 on Bet365

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Bet lost. Below par performance from Sporting. Martins and Adrien were poor and left William exposed continuously who had a brilliant game despite being isolated most of the time. Sporting were too slow and static up front but they could have scored another when Helton pulled of a fantastic save from Montero. Porto played well though and exposed Sporting especially down the left flank through Varela and deserved the victory. Porto's best performance so far this season from what I've seen.

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Sporting take on Porto for first place in the table tonight at the Dragao. Porto have a great home record but things haven't been plain sailing as the table suggests for them this season. They've needed late goals and penalties to win a few games this season whilst Sporting have been terrific dismantling most of the sides they have faced so far. They've also already faced the other big side Benfica and deserved to win the game. Led by possible signing of the season Fredy Montero there's always goals in this Sporting side and they'll prove very tough to beat tonight. Porto may sneak a win so I'm going to look on the Asian Lines but this is going to be a very close game and there's every chance Sporting can grab a great result in this form. I'm going to take the +0.75 AH on Sporting at 1.95 on Bet365 as my main bet with some smaller stakes on the goalscorers market. Montero has scored 12 goals in 8 competitive games for Sporting including one against Benfica and only missed the goal in one of those. The price of 3.5 for Montero to score anytime on Bet365 is great for some smaller stakes. Sporting will come here full of confidence and I'll back them to score which will likely come through in form Montero.

[Ligue 1 Orange > October 25th - 27th]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > October 25th - 27th Any thoughts on Bastia's game against Nice meatman? Some info would be greatly appreciated.

[World Cup South America Qualification > Wednesday October 16th]

Re: World Cup South America Qualification > Wednesday October 16th Anyone know anything about Peru or Bolivia? South America sides are usually poor away from home and Bolivia are no different with one draw and six away defeats. They haven't won away from home since beating South Africa in a friendly six years ago. Peru have won four games at home but the head to head record is very even. Anyone know anything about team news, the way they're playing or anything?

[World Cup South America Qualification > October 11th & 12th]

Re: World Cup South America Qualification > October 11th & 12th What do you lads think of Suarez anytime at 3.5? If Uruguay are improving and Ecuador have been going downhill recently surely with Suarez's form and record in these qualifiers this is a good bet. Only thing is Ecuador's defensive record at home and Uruguay's poor away record. Cavani is also 3.5 at PaddyPower. I like the look of Columbia to win as well. They have some real quality players who have been playing well recently and Chile have a bad away record.

[La Liga > October 4th - 6th]

Re: La Liga > October 4th - 6th Sevilla to win and BTTS at 3.1 William Hill Sevilla take on Almeria today in a game which goals look a given. The home side have seen 24 goals scored in their first 7 games while 27 goals have been scored in Almeria's league games so far this season. Sevilla haven't had a settled back four all season and with Juan Cala suspended more changes are needed and players like Rodri, Vidal and Suso will surely cause them problems. The hosts have played a number of very good teams already along with a number of Europa League games which has led to a tough start but things look on the up following the defeat against Valencia a couple of weeks back. I can't see win less Almeria getting anything out of the game today against the hosts who have a good record at home but their attack could cause a few problems for Sevilla and I can see goals. The match result and both teams to score at 3.1 is good value for me.

[Manchester City v FC Bayern München > Wednesday October 2nd]

Re: Manchester City v FC Bayern München > Wednesday October 2nd

Yes they could possibly score but I don't see any value on taking both Ribery and Robben to score' date=' if you want to bet I think you should only choose one, but who, that is the tricky question.[/quote'] Yeah, I don't see any value in taking Robben and Ribery to score, what I meant to say was Robben or Ribery.

[Manchester City v FC Bayern München > Wednesday October 2nd]

Re: Manchester City v FC Bayern München > Wednesday October 2nd What do people think of Aguero to score anytime at 3.5 on Skybet? He's scored two against United last week and got into the habit of scoring against big sides last season with goals against Real, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea and United again. I can see goals in this game with the way City have been playing recently so Aguero might be a good shout. Would be interested on people's thoughts on Robben and Ribery anytime as well as Bayern's wingers usually take a lot of shots. Ribery is at 4 on Betfred and has scored a good few goals this season while Robben is at 3.75 on Skybet and had a great goalscoring record in the CL last season.