arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th
Wouldn't say hot favourites because Benfica will certainly get chances to score as we saw when they got their quick forwards running at the Juve defence. If Juve get an early goal things will be very tough for Benfica but they will have to push for that second goal to even the tie and the longer it stays that way the more chances Benfica will get on the break. If Jesus approaches the game the same way as today I can't see them qualifying but a few changes to their system to nullify Juventus and I feel they can get to the final.Juve are surely hot favourites now with the away goal -
Re: Bundesliga > April 25th - 27th Schalke look great value to beat Monchengladbach at evens considering how good they have been at home. Any big players missing for Schalke or any other thoughts?
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th We saw the Benfica of old tonight playing a very attacking game but not surprisingly running out of steam just like last season. They started brilliantly ans were fantastic for most of the first half but Jorge Jesus also showed his tactical shortcomings which seemed to have disappeared over the season. I mentioned Juventus threat out wide with midfielders overloading the flanks but Jesus completely ignored this and allowed Pogba to boss the game in the second half. We saw the danger in the first half and nothing was done at half time. I was surprised Jesus stuck with his attacking 4-2-2-2 which should definitely have been ditched for a more defensive 4-5-1 especially after tiredness crept in to his side. Because of this two man midfield Benfica didn't have the extra man in midfield to cover the wide areas and left Pirlo in space to dictate play. Juventus looked very dodgy when Benfica managed to isolate their defence with their quick forwards and bringing a lead to Turin will be crucial because Juventus will have to attack. Juventus can be got at on the break and if you cover the flanks properly and prevent Pirlo dictating their attack they are very beatable. There's no way Jesus can ignore the 4-5-1 after seeing that second half performance and if they make some tactical changes to nullify Juventus I think they can win the tie with their threat on the counter.
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th Sevilla: Beto, Diogo, Pareja, Fazio, Navarro, Carriço, Mbia, Reyes, Rakitic, Vitolo, Bacca Valencia: Guaita, João Pereira, J. Fuego, Mathieu, Bernat, Feghouli, Keita, Parejo, Cartabia, Vargas, Alcácer Benfica: Artur, Maxi Pereira, Luisao, Garay, Siqueira, Markovic, André Gomes, Enzo Pérez, Sulejmani, Rodrigo, Cardozo Juventus: Buffon, Caceres, Bonucci, Chiellini, Lichtsteiner, Pogba, Pirlo, Marchisio, Asamoah, Tevez, Vucinic Would have preferred to see Amorim play in a flatter midfield because I don't think Sulejmani is good enough to play as a number 10 and he isn't as good defensively. Cardozo in for Lima possibly to add some physicality to Benfica's front line while Llorente is also on the bench for Juve.
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th You've conveniently ignored the 800 minutes Andre Gomes has played in cup competitions including the Europa League. He's done well when called upon in these games and has played a good bit recently. Silvio was a great signing by Jesus in the summer and has started a lot for Benfica in 2014. Agree about Maxi Pereira though, he's been excellent. Juventus will badly miss Vidal's energy in attack and defence I feel.
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Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th
Gaitan and Fejsa have been left out of the Benfica squad. Fejsa didn't play at the weekend but Gaitan has gone missing from no where and is a massive loss for Benfica. Andre Gomes has done well over the season and has good physical and technical attributes but can be a little slow around the pitch. He's solid back up for Fejsa but Gaitan on the other hand is irreplaceable. Ruben Amorim is decent all round player and will likely come in here but he lacks those game changing qualities we've seen in Gaitan over the season. The more defensive midfield may have its benefits but more pressure will be on Benfica's forwards to perform now.Juventus travel to Lisbon to face newly crowned Portuguese Champions Benfica and will be desperate to add another trophy to their cabinet in front of there own fans in Turin. Juventus rested a few key players such as Tevez and Vidal at the weekend but looked sluggish going forward even with Llorente, Pogba and Pirlo to name a few against a poor Bologna side. They will have to improve going forward if they're to win this tie no doubt. Juventus have disappointed me this season with a poor Champions League campaign and after a fantastic end to 2013 in the league they've become a bit unconvincing again in the past couple of months. They're grinding out the wins but performance wise they haven't pushed on and have looked for the taking by decent opposition. Tevez and Vidal will certainly need to be on their game as they tend to struggle a bit going forward when they're not at their best relying on Pirlo's set pieces for goals. I'm not sold by the 3-5-2 in Europe but Juventus are certainly flexible enough with Asamoah able to push forward into a front 3 while Lichsteiner drops into a back 4. Whether they are as effective this way I'm not sure but Conte will surely have to consider this against strong opposition. Juventus are a fairly balanced side but they do like to overload the flanks using their midfielders which can leave Pirlo and their relatively slow defenders exposed at times which is something Benfica's fluid front line will look to take advantage of. Everything has clicked for Benfica this season after years of near finishes. Manager Jorge Jesus has learned from past seasons where his offensive often "all-out" approach cost his team during the run in. The home side are now comfortable defending a lead but still have that attacking flair of Rodrigo, Lima, Gaitan and new man Markovic up front. The lack of rotation was also a problem in recent years but Jesus has used his squad well this season and Benfica's 3-1 win over Spurs showed their strength with several first team players rested. Benfica are flexible between a 4-2-2-2 and 4-3-3 formation but Gaitan will likely come inside to mark Pirlo allowing Markovic to push out wide. Either way Benfica's pace going forward will be tough to deal with especially for players like Bonucci, Barzaghli and Pirlo. Fullback Silvio will miss out although Maxi Pereira is a very strong replacement but tricky winger Salvio is a big loss. Salvio is a key player and really hit form in recent games after a long injury lay off but luckily again for Benfica Markovic is another solid replacement and will relish the chance to run at Juventus players mentioned above. Fejsa and Enzo Perez in particular have stepped up in Matic's absence and have formed a formidable partnership in midfield and the latter will surely attract interest from bigger clubs in the summer. People will dismiss Benfica because of the Portuguese league but I don't think it is that far off Serie A when it comes to quality. Benfica were unlucky not to win this competition last year and Portuguese sides have been very successful in Europe recently. Although the physicality throughout the Juventus team will cause problems for the home side Benfica are far more solid these days and have the attack to cause some real problems. After a slow start Benfica have dispatched any decent side with ease over recent months including a 3-1 win over Porto with 10 men most of the game. Juventus also have a woeful away record in Europe and go to the Luz where Benfica have kept 13 clean sheets in 15 matches during 2014. Benfica are the strongest they have been for years and there's some nice value on the home win. Benfica to Win @ 2.75 PaddyPower -
Re: Real Madrid v FC Bayern München > Wednesday April 23rd
Ronaldo has trained normally the last two days and Ancelotti is confident he'll pass the fitness test so I would expect him to start. Bale's chances seem up in the air as he missed training on Monday and there hasn't been much news since except his inclusion in the squad. Even if one of them misses out Di Maria is equally effective from the wing and Isco has been playing excellently in Ronaldo's absence so Madrid have some quality options.Bale and Ronaldo are both in the squad... Are they confirmed as definite absentees. That would sway me either way. If they both play I fancy Madrid strongly here as Bayern look weak at the back and haven't been playing well recently. If Ronaldo and / or Bale are out I might be tempted in backing Bayern but they look there for the taking if Madrid are up for it. -
Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th Juventus travel to Lisbon to face newly crowned Portuguese Champions Benfica and will be desperate to add another trophy to their cabinet in front of there own fans in Turin. Juventus rested a few key players such as Tevez and Vidal at the weekend but looked sluggish going forward even with Llorente, Pogba and Pirlo to name a few against a poor Bologna side. They will have to improve going forward if they're to win this tie no doubt. Juventus have disappointed me this season with a poor Champions League campaign and after a fantastic end to 2013 in the league they've become a bit unconvincing again in the past couple of months. They're grinding out the wins but performance wise they haven't pushed on and have looked for the taking by decent opposition. Tevez and Vidal will certainly need to be on their game as they tend to struggle a bit going forward when they're not at their best relying on Pirlo's set pieces for goals. I'm not sold by the 3-5-2 in Europe but Juventus are certainly flexible enough with Asamoah able to push forward into a front 3 while Lichsteiner drops into a back 4. Whether they are as effective this way I'm not sure but Conte will surely have to consider this against strong opposition. Juventus are a fairly balanced side but they do like to overload the flanks using their midfielders which can leave Pirlo and their relatively slow defenders exposed at times which is something Benfica's fluid front line will look to take advantage of. Everything has clicked for Benfica this season after years of near finishes. Manager Jorge Jesus has learned from past seasons where his offensive often "all-out" approach cost his team during the run in. The home side are now comfortable defending a lead but still have that attacking flair of Rodrigo, Lima, Gaitan and new man Markovic up front. The lack of rotation was also a problem in recent years but Jesus has used his squad well this season and Benfica's 3-1 win over Spurs showed their strength with several first team players rested. Benfica are flexible between a 4-2-2-2 and 4-3-3 formation but Gaitan will likely come inside to mark Pirlo allowing Markovic to push out wide. Either way Benfica's pace going forward will be tough to deal with especially for players like Bonucci, Barzaghli and Pirlo. Fullback Silvio will miss out although Maxi Pereira is a very strong replacement but tricky winger Salvio is a big loss. Salvio is a key player and really hit form in recent games after a long injury lay off but luckily again for Benfica Markovic is another solid replacement and will relish the chance to run at Juventus players mentioned above. Fejsa and Enzo Perez in particular have stepped up in Matic's absence and have formed a formidable partnership in midfield and the latter will surely attract interest from bigger clubs in the summer. People will dismiss Benfica because of the Portuguese league but I don't think it is that far off Serie A when it comes to quality. Benfica were unlucky not to win this competition last year and Portuguese sides have been very successful in Europe recently. Although the physicality throughout the Juventus team will cause problems for the home side Benfica are far more solid these days and have the attack to cause some real problems. After a slow start Benfica have dispatched any decent side with ease over recent months including a 3-1 win over Porto with 10 men most of the game. Juventus also have a woeful away record in Europe and go to the Luz where Benfica have kept 13 clean sheets in 15 matches during 2014. Benfica are the strongest they have been for years and there's some nice value on the home win. Benfica to Win @ 2.75 PaddyPower
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Chelsea > Tuesday April 22nd
Football is not all about possession. There are different ways to create goals and perhaps you don't like it but you can't deny that Atletico are not one of the best sides in Europe at the moment.Ok..now give me 10 games of atlético with 62% of possession under Simeone management! Said thi against milan, Barcelona and now chelsea..atlético is tottally overrated..Simeone is a good coach, atlético is a good team..they are not great imo -
Re: Real Madrid v FC Bayern München > Wednesday April 23rd I mentioned the problems Pep is having implementing his footballing philosophy on his Bayern squad after the United game and he is unlikely to change much for this game. Creating clear cut chances has been a problem for Bayern in recent games in this competition because they control so much of the ball allowing the opposition to maintain a strong defensive shape and without proper wide forwards things become congested and difficult for the players. Villa and Pedro were key to Guardiola's success at Barca with their movement on the flanks but at Bayern the likes of Ribery and Robben look are too selfish and like to receive the ball too deep which leaves not only less space for the central players but less attacking runners to pass to which in the end is how you usually score. The other obvious problem is the likes of Schweinsteiger, Kroos and Mandzukic play in crucial areas of this system and are a shadow of Xavi, Iniesta and Messi when it comes to technical play. Bayern's key player in this position Thiago is out injured which is a massive blow. Whilst Bayern don't match Pep's old Barca side going forward they are similarly vulnerable on the counter because of the numbers they get forward which suits Madrid perfectly. Real will be full of confidence after winning the Copa del Rey last week after a fantastic performance against Barcelona where they could have won convincingly. The home side will set up in similar fashion with Ronaldo returning to the side while Isco will likely drop to the bench. Madrid have been exposed defensively this season at times with Ronaldo and Bale guilty of not tracking back but with Bayern controlling possession this will be less of a problem and I thought they were excellent at the back against Barca last week when Messi in particular was kept surprisingly quiet. Ramos and Pepe are always vulnerable to an absolute howler but they will be confident of replicating that performance last week against a similar possession based side. The energetic Di Maria, Bale, Ronaldo and Benzema will relish this sort of counter attacking game and will get chances to score for sure. I think Bayern are more suited to Heynckes' powerful more counter attack orientated than Guardiola's tiki taka at the moment and are in transition despite storming the Bundesliga this season. I just don't think they are ready to play with Pep's style to good affect in Europe and Madrid have the tools up front to cause some real problems especially on the break. Thiago's injury is a huge blow for the Germans and at the Bernabeu I like the price on a home win. Real Madrid to Win @ 2.62 Bet365
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Chelsea > Tuesday April 22nd Atletico boast an incredible defensive record and with Hazard's injury affecting an already poor front line it looks unlikely Chelsea will get anything from Madrid. Chelsea can expect to have more of the ball than they would like due to the home side's counter attacking style and with Matic missing a midfield of Lampard, Ramires and Luiz will be liable to Atletico's aggressive pressing. As well as Hazard and Matic, Ivanovic is also suspended meaning Ashley Cole will likely come into the line up after little game time in recent times. Chelsea are solid at the back when playing deep but as we saw especially under Villas-Boas Terry and Cahill can be dodgy when caught up the field and with Luiz and Ramires coming up against Gabi and Tiago you would expect Atletico to be able to win the ball high up the pitch and allow the likes of Koke, Costa and Turan if available to really cause damage on the break. Rodriguez, Sosa, Adrian, Diego and Villa are no shabby replacements either. Chelsea will struggle to break down Atletico and the home side are one of the few sides who can expose Chelsea on the break so I would expect them to do well over the two legs. Simeone has built the best defence in Europe with a quick and clinical forward line and have beaten sides like Madrid and Barcelone convincingly on a couple of occasions over the past year showing their strength in big games. Odds have dropped on the home side from evens at the weekend but they still remain value. Atletico to win 1.95 PaddyPower
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Re: FC Bayern München v Manchester United > Wednesday April 9th
I'm kicking myself for not having the balls to go for Atletico outright back in February. There's no outstanding side in the competition this season as we saw in 2013 and 2011 for example so Chelsea and Atleticoin particular have a good chance. Simeone just has them playing out of their skins at the moment and they just look so hard to beat. Look at Tiago, he was finished 5 years ago but under Simeone he looks like a top player. Unbelievable job he's done there. Still have Benfica to cheer for in Europe but there's still some value in Atletico at 5/1 for me.I fully agree. I actually don't think they will win the Champions League after watching those 2 legs. Barca could get away with that system because they had Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, and two good centre backs in Puyol and Pique.. Even though Barca had two very good centre backs, the way they played meant they were vulnerable. I hope Bayern get Atletico or Chelsea, cos I can see Simeone or Mourinho doing a right job on them.. -
Re: FC Bayern München v Manchester United > Wednesday April 9th
That's another thing, Pep has brought that same defensive vulnerability of his Barca side to Bayern. Because they commit so many players forward once you get through that wave of pressure there's a ton of space in behind to take advantage of and pale in comparison to his Barca side going forward who could always score one more goal than the opposition. Bayern were a machine under Heynckes but as Guardiola doesn't have the right players to implement his system they look more beatable this time round.Full agree with all of that. Yes Toto, I know Lahm has played well there, but that is only because he has the players around him to get away with it. At the end of the day he is probably the best right back in the world, and he is now playing centre mid.. For me, that is just insane. Pep got away with it tonight, but let's face it, that Bayern side were very poor over the 2 legs, had bundles of the ball and for all they blitzed United in a 15 minute spell tonight, they won't get away with it against a team as well structured as Atletico. That Bayern side should have hammered United. And Bayern's centre backs are brutal too, United looked like scoring every time they got at them (which wasn't an awful lot). -
Re: FC Bayern München v Manchester United > Wednesday April 9th
Villa and Pedro were key to Barca's success which gets overlooked a lot. Ribery and Robben are too selfish and just don't offer that same movement not only providing outlets for the playmakers inside but creating space in the middle of the pitch. You see it in Barca today when they play Fabregas and move Iniesta out wide which makes them instantly half as effective as the middle of the pitch gets crowded. Iniesta just doesn't offer that movement out wide to create chances. The old Pedro, Messi and Villa front line was incredible and allowed Messi, Iniesta and Xavi to play at their maximum which was why Barca were so successful. Pep just doesn't have the players to replicate this system at Bayern.Has Guardiola lose his marbles? Lahm in the middle of the park, no structure at all, players roaming around where they want. Can't think of one good chance they created in the first half, there is hope yet for United (to my amazement). Pep has the team set up as if he is back playing kiddies football. United just sitting back, nick the ball and try break. Good luck to those who have United back, I will be shouting ye on! -
Re: Serie A > April 5th - 7th I saw Atalanta against Udinese and Inter and they were impressive. You can't win every bet though and I would take Atalanta at home to beat Sassuolo in this form every single time at those odds. It's all about whether the bet would win in the long run and I can't see how in this case the bet wouldn't.
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Re: FC Barcelona v Atlético de Madrid > Tuesday April 1st
Because he coaches as he used to play...very very agressive' date=' very defensive, and then he relis on such great strikers...Falcao last year, Diego Costa this year...Atletico gets dominated every single game...i just cant see Simeone being a top coach.[/quote'] There's no way you can deny that Simeone isn't a fantastic coach. Just look at the resources at his disposal and you have to wonder how Atletico are top of La Liga and managed to win the Copa del Rey last season. His transfer record is brilliant as well and just look at how he's managed to get the best out of players like Tiago who looked well past it over 5 years ago not to mention Costa who he has turned from an average striker to one of the world's best. Atletico don't play an expansive possession game but they still create a ton of chances through not only their intense pressing game but through technical players such as Turan, Koke and Diego which is good to watch for me. Another thing to consider is the mess Atletico were before Simeone took charge sitting in the bottom half of La Liga. -
Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14
Braga were very good in the middle disrupting Benfica but they lacked a real threat going forward. I haven't seen Benfica play so many loose passes in a long time but they still remained solid at the back and missed one or two great chances to put the game to bed. Poor game but it could have been different if Braga had any decent forwards playing, unlucky with your bet.2/4 for the day not bad. Could have been so much better if Academica avoided that stupid conceded goal and Braga took his chances. Nevertheless... -
Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14
I hear Braga are missing a ton of players' date=' is this correct?[/quote'] http://www.abola.pt/nnh/ver.aspx?id=468981 Rafa and Eder not in the squad along with Alan, Sasso, Kadu, Nuno Andre Coelho, Baiano and Custodio. Some big players out for Braga but Benfica are now 1.7 or even shorter in most places so the price is no longer attractive for me. -
Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Saturday March 29th
That's very harsh. Look at Silva and Mata who also had sharp dips in performance after Christmas during their first season before improving considerably the following season. Ozil was Madrid's second best player and at 40m Wenger got a great deal at that price. He's not been at his best but how can you expect a playmaker who thrives on spotting gaps through a defence to perform when he's got a lamppost ahead of him and another two playmakers playing either side? Who's making the runs? I agree that he doesn't know how to beat the top teams but I think it's more down to his tactical approach rather than money. He rarely adapts his approach and we're often too expansive against the top sides who just pick us off on the break and we've seen this for years. A better team would suit his philosophy more but even his best sides collapsed in certain games which probably explains Arsenal's poor record in European knock out ties. Wenger needed to adapt his team for these games but he stuck with his beliefs which is the weakness of a great manager.A club that continues to sell their best players is never going to win trophies, that is the point the others have been making. The Arsenal fans are fed up listening to people talk about the clubs finances, yes they are great, but they want silverware. When Nicholas Bendtner is your No. 2 striker, it shows how poorly Wenger has done with the money he has received from the sale of Van Persie, Clichy and Fabregas etc. He splashed the bank on Ozil and he has been a disaster. The fact of the matter is Wenger doesn't know how to beat the top teams in the league, he once was a great manager but it was easier in the old days when money did not control football, these days it does, you can't win trophies without investing in a lot of quality. My opinion means jack shit, but here is a man who knows his stuff and this short clip should be watched. -
Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Saturday March 29th Wenger just doesn't set his teams up correctly against the top sides which has been a huge problem for Arsenal this season. Arsenal were pretty much flawless against the weaker sides until recently but Wenger's been done tactically in the big games which is the bad side to a magnificent manager and I feel it's going to be a struggle tomorrow. If we see the same expansive approach from Arsenal again City will pick us off easily and although I would expect the players to play more cautiously with last weeks defeat at the back of their minds, City still have the quality to break down a weakened Arsenal side. Good luck, hope Arsenal some how sneak it. :ok
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14
They're not really though are they? Braga have historically been a top six side where as Estoril are relatively new to the upper echelons of Portuguese football. I'd personally suggest 1.9 is fairly respectable and wouldn't consider it "amazing" given both clubs respective league standings' date=' the home away factor, head to heads and league form. It looks like a 1-1 type of fixture, maybe both to score. Benfica are seven points clear and don't seem to have any strong favourites given Porto and Sporting are underperforming.[/quote'] I'm not saying Benfica should be 1.5 or 1.7 but given Braga's form this season I think the bookies are being generous on Benfica. Estoril have been the better than Braga this season with a terrific manager in charge and whilst Porto have been underperforming Benfica still have the stronger team and I would expect them to still be ahead in the league. I wouldn't say Sporting are underperforming though and with the quality Jardim has at his disposal he's doing a fantastic job. All in all I think Benfica have been brilliant since December and look a good price here. -
Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Benfica are massively overpriced this weekend away at Braga I feel. Although Braga are usually strong in front of their own fans they've had a rough season and there's just not the same quality in their side compared to what we've seen in the past. Both sides played midweek in the cup with Rio Ave holding Braga to a goalless draw whilst Benfica lost 1-0 to a rejuvenated Porto side although they rested several key players which could be key to this fixture. Braga have a number of injury problems including key men Eder and Rafa who are doubtful for the encounter while Benfica on the other hand will likely reintroduce Lima, Gaitan, Markovic, Perez and Siqueira to the starting line up providing a big boost to their chances. Porto were excellent midweek and I was particularly impressed with the energy and desire to win the ball back shown throughout the game which was often lacking under Fonseca so the midweek defeat isn't worrying for me. They've been excellent since December and with Jesus seemingly learning from past mistakes by adopting a successful rotation system I don't see any signs of Benfica slowing. Jesus has also been clear that the league is priority and the away side will be eager to wrap up the title as soon as possible after the implosion we saw at the end of last season. The odds for Benfica here are huge compared to the 1.7 they were to beat Estoril away who are better than Braga and the 1.43 they were to beat Guimaraes away who are at a similar level to the home side which emphasises the value for me. Benfica are on another level to the other Portuguese sides at the moment and they are great value for the win. 4pts Benfica @ 1.91 PaddyPower
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Re: irish lincoln sunday Cheval Rouge came 2nd is this race last year on similar ground and is running off a similar mark this time. He hasn't raced in 2014 which fits with the trends and his trainer has likely had an eye on this race for a long time so the price of 25/1 looks appealing to me. Haven't had a proper look at the race but this horse sticks out for me at the moment. Any other thoughts?
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Re: Europa League 2013/14 outright Valencia are too short now even at 10s in some places. I got on Benfica at 14/1 but did not have the time to write something on here unfortunately as they were a great price.
Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th