[TIM Cup > January 21st - 29th]

Re: TIM Cup > January 21st - 29th I understand rotation is needed to keep players happy and fit for when injuries hit but surely Juve will take the Coppa more seriously now that they're out of the CL.They're 8 points clear in Series A as well so I don't see why Conte can't save the rotation for the weaker league sides instead of a huge cup game where it's all or nothing. But yeah, let's wait for some more team news.

[TIM Cup > January 21st - 29th]

Re: TIM Cup > January 21st - 29th Conte wants to rest players in a big cup match with Juve so far ahead in Serie A, already out of the CL and a fully fit squad? What does he need to rest players for? Doesn't make sense to me but if that's what the Italian media are reporting I'll wait for team news before placing any bets. With a full team out I think Juve are a very nice price at 2.88 on BetVictor even if Roma have been performing very well especially at home. Roma were absolutely hammered and tactically out classed by Conte just a few weeks ago and I can't see how they'll be able to score if Juve set up the same way completely stopping Roma's main threat through counter attacking. Juve are on an incredible run of 12 straight wins and they're just a class above any other team in Italy at the moment so unless we see changes this price on Juve is really nice for me.

[Ligue 2 > January 17th - 20th]

Re: Ligue 2 > January 17th - 20th Ntep is an Auxerre player as far as I know although closing in on a move to Roma, not QPR. He may very well start tomorrow.

[Copa Del Rey > January 7th - 14th]

Re: Copa Del Rey > January 7th - 14th Lucky to get such a late goal but you have to say it was a fair result after a storming final 20 minutes from the home side. Valencia were only dangerous after the introduction of Feghouli and Canales who added some pace and directness to the attack, before that Atletico were very comfortable though. I thought we were going to see a carbon copy of Atletico's win in Malaga at the weekend when Garcia scored as it looked as Valencia were out of ideas in the final third but those changes in the last 20 minutes completely changed the game. It's a shame it took an Atletico goal to force the Valencia manager into changes as that pace and directness really caused Atletico problems and they could have won if we saw Feghouli and Canales earlier. With top scorer Jonas coming back into the attack things look on the up after two good performances under their new manager, definitely going to pay attention to them over the next couple of weeks. Atletico were also impressive in parts again with their solidity and counter attacking skill, they clearly were happy with the point but they just seem to create great chances from no where. Despite having far less possession and few counter attacking opportunities for once they still looked more likely to score most of the game. When you see Costa pull off a centre back and run down the channel on the counter you just know Atletico will score half the time. Valencia did a job on Costa today putting quick pressure on him but when Barca face Atletico at the weekend they'll have most of their players in the opposition half which will give Costa much more space. Huge game at the weekend for Barca but I wouldn't be surprised if Atletico nick it with Costa picking up the goal(s). I'm definitely going to keep an eye out on the draw/Atelico result away from home over the next few weeks too. Interesting tactical game today with an exciting last 20 minutes and a nice result too. :ok

[Copa Del Rey > January 7th - 14th]

Re: Copa Del Rey > January 7th - 14th I went against Valencia at the weekend and they beat my bet Levante quite comfortably but I still don't think they're anywhere close to Atletico when it comes to quality, especially with a few key players missing. Banega and Jonas miss out while Atletico start with a lot of the players people expected them to rest so Simeone clearly wants to win this despite their poor record in away legs of Copa Del Rey games. The thing is with Atletico is that they can win from anywhere, they could be defending the whole game and suddenly score because of their strength on the counter. Costa is may be the most clinical striker in football at the moment and their other players are also suited to this set up. I could see a draw here because the Atletico do tend to draw their away matches in the cup but I would be more inclined to side with an away win looking at the line ups. Costa and a couple of others may be subbed changing the game in Valencia's favour which is something else to consider. Just some thoughts, I've done well in play recently so I'll wait a bit and see if an opportunity arises during the game. Edit: Fixed a stat. Went for a draw in the end just before kick off as I just feel all the big sides tend to draw their away legs in the cup and get the job done at home. Simeone picked a very strong side but he'll take a few players off in the second half for the big weekend game and will probably be content with a draw. Atletico are a counter attacking side and they'll be happy to soak up the pressure as they are at the moment, 15 minutes in.

[Serie A > January 5th & 6th]

Re: Serie A > January 5th & 6th Yeah, fantastic performance from Juve. Vidal and Tevez again were excellent and Roma had no answers. Roma were poor but when you face a Juventus side in this sort of form most sides would struggle. Napoli will finish second for me while Roma scrap it out for the final CL spot with Fiorentina and possibly Inter if they can get one or two quality players in January. Rossi could be a huge blow for Fiorentina though.

[Serie A > January 5th & 6th]

Re: Serie A > January 5th & 6th Roma are unbeaten all season but they face a huge challenge when they face Juventus at their Turin fortress. Juventus have won every single home game this season and have conceded just once in their last 9 Serie A games reaching top form after a slow start. Their slow start cost them in the Champions League but they clawed back the deficit to Roma in the league and now lead by 5 points looking fairly unstoppable in Seria A as they have been during Conte's reign. Vidal and Tevez are playing at the top of their game at the moment and will be key if Juve are to continue their fantastic home record. Roma have been superb this season although they slowed a little while Totti was out injured. De Rossi and Strootman have been incredible in the middle and have raised the Roma to another level. They now have a fully fit squad to pick from but they'll come short against a Juve side in full flow I feel. Turin is a proper fortress for the home team and there's some nice value on a Juve win here. 4pts Juventus to win @ 1.7 PaddyPower

[FA Cup > January 4th & 5th]

Re: FA Cup > January 4th & 5th

Isnt it more likely that Cazorla plays as an false 9 instead of Özil since he is a better finisher then Özil and he is a player just as Özil that got much creativty in his body (ofc not as much' date=' but which CAM in the world has?)[/quote'] Ozil has played for Germany a few times as a false 9 as far as I know. Cazorla is best when picking up the ball in deeper positions and helping the ball make that transition from defence to attack using his long range passing and dribbling ability. He played pretty much as a double pivot against Real for Malaga one year and was fantastic really. Some highlights are here if you're interested -

Cazorla can't pick a pass through a packed defence like Ozil, Fabregas, Xavi and even someone like Mata, his work is done better in the deeper areas. Cazorla posted his best numbers last season and most of his goals before he joined Arsenal were long range efforts. Ozil is far more productive when you put goals and assists together and plays his best football in the final third. He can also hold up the ball and his movement brings others into play rather than coming short most of the time, a very underrated trait. I don't think Cazorla is suited to the false 9 role at all but it would certainly be interesting to see how Ozil would do up front with two wide forwards either side. With Bendtner out and Giroud most likely missing too it could be worth a shot after how poor Podolski was through the middle midweek. Walcott is another option but he's performing really well in that wide role where he does not need to be the main man in attack. It's going to be interesting to see who Wenger plays up front but it will certainly be a strong side.

[BBOTD Tuesday 31st December]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 31st December

Punchestown 2:45 The Oliver McKiernan trained Follow The Sign could outrun his big odds in this competitive affair tomorrow. The ground is forecast heavy tomorrow and the gelding has a record of 2-3 on heavy going so he should travel better than most on this ground. He won a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in February and then started life in handicap company off a mark of 114. He has not figured since but he is now down to a mark of 109 and the fact Robbie Colgan gets the mount once more is a positive as he was on board for all of the horses best runs. His sole win also came over this trip of 2m 4f and at 20/1 he is worth a bet for me. Follow The Sign WIN @ 20/1 Paddy Power

Got him at 39/1 on Betfair, definitely worth a punt with small stakes I feel. Light weight on heavy ground with Colgan back on board who knows what will happen.

[Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday December 29th]

Re: Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday December 29th

It's clear to see that Mourinho is going to set up his Chelsea side to sit deep and play on the counter against all the top sides. He did this against United, City and Arsenal with success as they didn't lose one of those games. Mourinho has built his success on lethal counter attacking sides but unfortunately for him this Chelsea side does not have the quality and consistency up front to really make this work for him. The defence remains extremely solid when sitting deep but Torres, Eto'o, Ba, Hazard, Oscar, Willian and Schurrle clearly aren't scoring the goals against the top sides and Mata remains on the fringes. Cahill and Terry love this deep set up and thrive under it making it tough for even the best strikers to make an impact unlike when Chelsea open up and push forward leaving the back line exposed. Cahill and Terry in the resulting high line look very dodgy and some of the weaker sides have taken advantage of this. I'm pretty much certain Chelsea will set up deep and look to hit on the counter in this game though and Liverpool will find it tough. Ramires is the only significant missing for Chelsea but in this deep set up his energy may not be missed so much. Liverpool will be missing Gerrard who could produce a piece of magic to unlock deep defences while Sturridge and Enrique also miss out. Liverpool haven't convinced me against the top sides. They'll take a lot of confidence from the performance at City but then again City are an open side which played into Liverpool's hands unlike Chelsea who will be a lot more difficult to play against. Liverpool are always a little dodgy for me at the back but I really can't see Chelsea being very threatening in attack in this counter attacking set up. The home side have drawn a good few games against the big teams and I believe this will be a tight game where the value again is in the draw. Chelsea will be strong defensively and weak going forward and unless Liverpool grab an early goal and force them to open up, this looks like a low scoring affair. 3pts Draw @ 3.5 Bet365

Bet lost. Only watched the second half where Liverpool certainly deserved a point but I heard Chelsea were well on top before the break. Suarez should have won a penalty with 10 minutes to go after a moment of madness from Eto'o.

[Newcastle United v Arsenal > Sunday December 29th]

Re: Newcastle United v Arsenal > Sunday December 29th

Arsenal out to 2.3 on Bet365 which is far too big. Arsenal have a good record against Newcastle and it's these type of games that Arsenal have been winning which has kept them top of the league most of the season. Ozil and Ramsey are out but this midfield of Flamini and Rosicky is perfect for counter attacking and the players who have come in are all real quality unlike the thin Arsenal squads before. Cazorla showed last seasons form against West Ham and I expect more improvement here in Ozil's absence where he will be the main man in attack. Newcastle have been quality this season but they'll find it tough against counter attacking set up, I wouldn't expect Arsenal to have a huge amount of possession here especially away from home. Sorry for the short preview but I wasn't going to bet on this game until I saw these prices. This counter attacking set up is exactly what Newcastle didn't want to face and this is the game players like Podolski and Walcott thrive in for Arsenal. Walcott has a good record against Newcastle recently and now that Arsenal are out to 2.3 there is a load of value here. 5pts Arsenal to win @ 2.3 Bet365

Bet won. In the end you've got to take Arsenal to win in these sort of matches at those sort of prices, sure winner in the long run.

[Newcastle United v Arsenal > Sunday December 29th]

Re: Newcastle United v Arsenal > Sunday December 29th Arsenal out to 2.3 on Bet365 which is far too big. Arsenal have a good record against Newcastle and it's these type of games that Arsenal have been winning which has kept them top of the league most of the season. Ozil and Ramsey are out but this midfield of Flamini and Rosicky is perfect for counter attacking and the players who have come in are all real quality unlike the thin Arsenal squads before. Cazorla showed last seasons form against West Ham and I expect more improvement here in Ozil's absence where he will be the main man in attack. Newcastle have been quality this season but they'll find it tough against counter attacking set up, I wouldn't expect Arsenal to have a huge amount of possession here especially away from home. Sorry for the short preview but I wasn't going to bet on this game until I saw these prices. This counter attacking set up is exactly what Newcastle didn't want to face and this is the game players like Podolski and Walcott thrive in for Arsenal. Walcott has a good record against Newcastle recently and now that Arsenal are out to 2.3 there is a load of value here. 5pts Arsenal to win @ 2.3 Bet365

[Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday December 29th]

Re: Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday December 29th It's clear to see that Mourinho is going to set up his Chelsea side to sit deep and play on the counter against all the top sides. He did this against United, City and Arsenal with success as they didn't lose one of those games. Mourinho has built his success on lethal counter attacking sides but unfortunately for him this Chelsea side does not have the quality and consistency up front to really make this work for him. The defence remains extremely solid when sitting deep but Torres, Eto'o, Ba, Hazard, Oscar, Willian and Schurrle clearly aren't scoring the goals against the top sides and Mata remains on the fringes. Cahill and Terry love this deep set up and thrive under it making it tough for even the best strikers to make an impact unlike when Chelsea open up and push forward leaving the back line exposed. Cahill and Terry in the resulting high line look very dodgy and some of the weaker sides have taken advantage of this. I'm pretty much certain Chelsea will set up deep and look to hit on the counter in this game though and Liverpool will find it tough. Ramires is the only significant missing for Chelsea but in this deep set up his energy may not be missed so much. Liverpool will be missing Gerrard who could produce a piece of magic to unlock deep defences while Sturridge and Enrique also miss out. Liverpool haven't convinced me against the top sides. They'll take a lot of confidence from the performance at City but then again City are an open side which played into Liverpool's hands unlike Chelsea who will be a lot more difficult to play against. Liverpool are always a little dodgy for me at the back but I really can't see Chelsea being very threatening in attack in this counter attacking set up. The home side have drawn a good few games against the big teams and I believe this will be a tight game where the value again is in the draw. Chelsea will be strong defensively and weak going forward and unless Liverpool grab an early goal and force them to open up, this looks like a low scoring affair. 3pts Draw @ 3.5 Bet365

[Everton v Southampton > Sunday December 29th]

Re: Everton v Southampton > Sunday December 29th Everton have been incredibly hard to beat under Roberto Martinez but they'll face a big challenge against Southampton who like to raise their game against the top sides. Southampton have been playing better than results suggest after going through a series of very tough games and I believe they can a point here. Howard, Deulofeu and Barry miss out for Everton whilst Boruc, Schneiderlin and Wanyama are the important missings for Southampton. Key defender Lovren should return for Southampton as could Clyne and Osvaldo so we may see the return of the Clyne, Lovren, Fonte and Shaw defence which was so solid and important during Southampton's early season form. Both these sides like to draw especially when they face sides nearby in the table. Everton have drawn with Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool while Southampton have drawn with City, Newcastle, United and can count themselves a little unlucky not to get a point off Tottenham last week. Everton will likely have more possession but we may see Southampton field a full strength back four and they will not find it easy to score if that's the case, especially without the spark Deulofeu brings to the side. Everton missed him off the bench last time out against Sunderland and he really is a special player who can skip through a few challenges and make something out of nothing when things aren't going your sides way. Rodriguez and Lallana have been excellent this season and will cause Everton problems on the break. I was tempted to take the Everton win earlier but now that there's a good chance some key players are returning for the away side and the tendency for these sides to have really close games against those around them in the table I'm going to go for the draw here. 3pts Draw @ 3.7 Bet365

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Good find cambroia. :ok Rio Ave and Estoril look like value to me this weekend. I've bet on Estoril away from home this season making a decent profit but I haven't watched or bet on Rio Ave, all I know is that they're a well organised solid side. Rio Ave have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 away from home this season including visits to Sporting and Braga with 7 goals scored, 2 against. They've won their last three away games by one goal though, have they been lucky? They face Pacos tomorrow who have only scored 3 goals at home this season and their results haven't picked up since Costinha's resignation. Rio Ave are at 3.5 to win and the win to nil is at 5.5 on Bet365. Pacos have been terrible when I've watched them this season and this looks like real value to me but I would like some feedback before placing any bets as I haven't seen Rio Ave this year. Estoril are a side I really like with a fantastic manager in Marco Silva. They lost some of their best players in the summer with Carlos Eduardo, Lica, Steven Vitoria and Jefferson all leaving for the big three but again Marco Silva has again brought the best out of his squad and they're challenging for Europe again. They're a good clinical counter attacking side which is probably why they like playing away, only Benfica have secured more points away from home and they've played two extra games. Again I haven't watched Belenenses this season and I think I overestimated them against Sporting because of this so some feedback would be appreciated. Estoril to win here at 2.4 on Bet365 looks like good value. Another thing to note is that their have been 43 home wins in the league this season with 41 away wins which suggests definite value betting on away sides.

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 I was on both teams to score as well because of these previews. Thanks for the tips. :ok

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

sorry mate, cant agree with you. i personally hate benfica and sporting as i am a fan of Porto. but the fact is that Sporting has been really good. if you were in portugal and you were a usual reader of the press you´d agree with me. the atmosphere is awesome in their group..after a period of darkness where sporting used to be mocked every single week because of their problems, both in the field and in the management team, they are finally putting things together and the future might be bright for them. leonardo jardim is an amazing coach, he gets the best from his players...we cant say they have extraordinary players, but in the field they seem they are programmed to do things the right way. im not saying they will win the title, cause i think they miss experience and against Benfica and Porto that handicap is noted, but they will definitely be on the top spots till the end of the season. cheers

Thanks for that, I just thought Sporting were poor against Rio Ave, Benfica, Porto and Guimaraes and would struggle a bit against Belenenses. I'm a bit of Porto fan myself actually, half my family are from the north of Portugal and are huge Porto fans. Then my brother is Sporting fan, so I'm well aware of the problems after giving him a good slagging last season :lol I'll take note of that.

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

Sporting has been fantastic lately. Following the defeat in Dragao, they had some trouble against Maritimo at home, trailing 1-2 at halftime but they managed to win in the second half. Since then 3 victories, 2 away from home with 7-0 in goals. Belenenses has a lot of problems scoring. Since their last victory on the 5th October they only scored once in 5 matches...that was against Porto after an incredible error from Mangala (look on youtube). Last 5 matches, 4 draws, 3 0-0, 1-1 against Porto and a loss by 1-0 away to Paços. Belenenses fights to avoid relegation, they keep it tight at the back and try the counters...thing is that they lack quality in the attack and all forwards hasnt scored a single goal yet. the best scorers are Joao Pedro, a winger, and Miguel Rosa their best player, the former benfica player, their playmaker that will miss the match tonight. I predict Belenenses to park the bus...however sporting has been super lately, a lot of quality and options in their squad. after getting the first place in the league, cant see them loosing in a home game against poor Belenenses. 2-0, 3-0 is my call here. Sporting -1.25 1.78 188bet 10/10

Wonder what your thoughts on Sporting are, every time I watch them they seem to struggle to break sides down. However I only tend to watch them against the better sides. William Carvalho has been an absolute revelation in midfield though, great player.

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Unlucky with Setubal Drac, 90th minute own goal costing us. Good call in the end cambroia. Currently nil all in the Sporting game after 20 minutes.

[Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th]

Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th

What a game - Arsenal playing well and getting hammered :cigar

This haha, no way we deserved to lose that game by such a big margin. Very sloppy defending from Arsenal today especially from Koscielny and Mertesacker who have been immense this season. Anyway when you take the game to City they are very beatable like Arsenal did today, but you've also got to be solid at the back where Arsenal were poor. Must have been a great game for the neutral but as an Arsenal fan you've got to be annoyed with that result.

[Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th]

Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th I said before the match City could get a lot of joy down the flank especially through Zabaleta and that is exactly what has happened. Wilshere just hasn't tracked him at all and they were always going to score eventually by playing down that right side. Another thing is the amount of space city are getting in between the Arsenal defence and midfield, the two Arsenal centre backs need to be more aggressive and close down this space. More goals in this definitely, City taking advantage of Arsenal's weaknesses down the flank while City look dodgy at the back when Arsenal get runners in behind. Linesman got a few offside decisions wrong and I'd expect Arsenal to make even more runs in behind the defence in the second half where they can cause trouble. Ozil needs to get involved and Arsenal need to patch up their defence if they want to get something from this game but the chances will be there for the taking.

[Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th]

Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th

what do u think the correct score will be now that arsenal are putting out an aggressive team? Personally' date=' i see lots of goals in this now. Maybe even some weird big correct score like 3:3[/quote'] Walcott still hasn't played a lot at all this season and be won't be fully match fit so we'll need to hope he hits form from the start. I still think this game is too hard to predict and if you want to bet on the game I'd wait and bet in play.

[Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th]

Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th City team: Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Kompany, Demichelis, Clichy, Fernandinho, Toure, Nasri, Silva, Aguero, Negrado Arsenal team: Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Flamini, Wilshere, Ramsey, Ozil, Walcott, Giroud The exact side I wanted to see from Arsenal. Even Monreal who has been doing very well when played recently comes in for Gibbs who hasn't performed in the last few weeks, didn't expect that at all.

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

BRAGA - SETÚBAL Despite looking a bit better than a few weeks back, Braga is still struggling to find the solidness and effectiveness that characterized them in the last seasons. Coach Jesualdo seems to have found finally a stable starting XI and he is now looking for continuity in favourable results. That is not happening as, after the home victory against Olhanense that broke a terrible series of 5 consecutive lost games for the Portuguese league, they couldn’t get nothing out of Do Dragao. In fact at Porto, Braga managed to control the game in the first half but without creating any danger. In the second half they completely disappear out of the field leaving a clear passage to victory for Porto who was in terrible condition. Also the fact that there is an ingoing President election with some new players being announced in the press is not helping to create a quiet and confident ambiance around the team. Late news of unavailability of Eder their best striker is a major blow for the team. Long term CB Paulo Vinicius is the another unavailable player. Home record so far is 3-0-3. Braga: Eduardo – Baiano, Santos, Coelho, Elderson – Mauro, Luis Carlos, Ruben Micael – Alan, Hugo Viera (Edinho), Rafa Setúbal has benefited a lot from the change of coaches they’ve made in the beginning of October. Since then they didn’t lose any of their 9 official matches with an impressive record of 6-3-0 in all competitions. They arrive after a difficult but deserved win against Académica which helped to increase their morale even higher. The defence is stable (4 clean sheets in the last 5 league games), the attack is dangerous and every player seems to know what to do in the field blindly confiding in the excellent direction of experienced coach Couceiro. Apart from the already injured for a few weeks midfielders Terroso and Tavares they have a full available squad. Away record is 2-2-2 Setúbal: Kieszek – Pedro Queirós, Vezo, Cohene, Pedroso – Dani, Tiba, Miguel Pedro – Horta, Cardozo, Rafael Martins I truly believe that the odds are inadequate and Braga is being really overestimated. The last home victory by 4:1 has a lot to do with that but Setúbal is much better than Olhanense and I don’t expect this match to be the walk in the park for Braga that the odds suggest. H2H is pretty much on favour of Braga but this year’s reality is completely different. Out of the 7 official home games Braga played this season only in 1 of them this handicap was beaten. Setúbal +1.5 AH 1,88@Bet365

Skipped over this post last night, thought this game was a few weeks ago. I watched Braga last week and I thought they were very poor, despite an excellent second half performance from Porto. Usually Jesualdo gets the best out of his teams but things haven't been going right at Braga. There's no way they deserve to be priced at 1.36 against any side, never mind an on form Setubal team without Eder. Nice preview, and I think I'll back it myself. Good luck.

[Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Sporting riding their luck a bit at the moment and I believe Belenenses may be able to sneak something from this game. Sporting top the league but they definitely struggle against the better defensive sides and unfortunately for them Belenenses are one of them. When they're given space Sporting can be devastating with their pace as we've seen against Pacos, Setubal, Academica and Arouca but they struggled against better sides like Guimaraes where they got a lucky goal in the 90th minute and I heard the 2-0 result against Gil Vicente flattered them. They also were pretty comprehensively beaten by Porto who didn't let them play in the final third and Benfica only conceded three against them because of some comical defending. Montero their top goalscorer has struggled against tight defences and Sporting's midfielders and wide players really don't have that creative spark to break these sides down. After a poor start on their return to the top league, Belenenses have picked up some great results recently based on a rock solid defence which includes draws away to Benfica and home to Porto. They've only conceded three goals in their last 8 league games but unfortunately they still struggle in front of goal which means they still lie near the bottom of the table. Another strong defensive side Rio Ave have already been to the Alvalade and picked up a point and Belenenses will be confident they can do the same after already taking points off Benfica and Porto. This is a city derby and Belenenses will be highly motivated to take at least a point here. They'll set up defensively and I believe this will be a low scoring game but I always find betting on unders dodgy. Sporting are full of confidence at the moment and may nick the game by a goal but they really do tend to struggle against solid defensive sides so I think there's some value here. Belenenses have also drawn 4 out of their last 5 league games so I'll take small stakes on the draw. 4pts Belenenses +1.25 @ Evens Bet365 1pt Draw @ 4.75 Bet365