arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > January 9th - 12th Barca vs Atletico Barca come in to this game with a fantastic home record scoring 29 goals while conceding just 3 in La Liga so far this season but they'll find it considerably harder to win all 3 points against Atletico tonight. Messi, Suarez and Neymar looked devastating when they beat Elche 5-0 just 3 days ago in the cup but they won't get that same space tonight and Atletico will disrupt their play by using their physicality and making fouls. Defensively Barca shouldn't find Atletico too threatening as they will have the majority of possession and Mandzukic won't cause as many problems as Costa did in the past. Barca are pretty much at full strength with only Vermaelen ruled out and Xavi doubtful. Simeone's side are in great form after they beat a strong Real side in the cup with a number of their stars rested for this big clash with Barcelona. The extra rest is an important advantage to have for a side like Atletico who play a tiring physical game with their aggressive pressing. Simeone gets his tactics spot on in these games and his record speaks for it's self as they've only lost 3 out of their last 15 games against Real and Barca. You can expect them to sit back remaining tight and compact throughout the game and I can't see Barca creating too many chances even with such a talented strike force. Atletico are also at full strength although young CB Gimenez is expected to start over Miranda at the back as he hasn't really put a foot wrong over the past month. These clashes are generally low scoring affairs with only 7 goals scored in their 6 meetings going back to the start of last season and 5 of those 6 games were draws with Atletico winning the other game 1-0. I can't see how things will be different tonight as Atletico won't let Barca get into a rhythm by making things scrappy and will be as tough as ever to break down at the back. Both sides will be keen not to lose here heading into the crucial part of the season and with a low scoring game expected I think there is some nice value is on a draw here. Barca vs Atletico - 2pts DRAW @ 10/3 Bet365
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday January 10th
Hawkes Point wins too' date=' oh my days! Cheeky 89/1 e/w double too.. :)[/quote'] Yet again Aidy robs the bookies on a Saturday. :lol -
Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell
All the low draws shortening except Alderaan who is out to 23 on Betfair. Think there's some value especially in a place as anyone in stall 2 has a good chance to hit the frame provided the horse is not completely useless.Be interesting to see the market now Pancake Day has halved in price and is now 5/2 second favourite Will it go off favourite ? If it does then I'd suggest that the market is now being formed primarily around the draw rather than the form -
Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell
I took Newton Bob for the exact same reasons last night. Hasn't shown much in the form book but like you said his running style should suit, possibly the straight track too as well as the drop in trip. Still looks a good bet to me at 18/1.Newton Bomb, stall 3, best price 20/1, is a 7 race maiden. I've got a sneaky feeling for this.....shows early speed, has been running over further but not getting home, reportedly didn't handle the bend at Lingfield last time so the straight track should suit. I think this one could be the one to bomb away from the low draws and should run all the way to the line over 5F My selections...... Pancake Day - WIN at 5/1 bog PP Newton Bomb - EW at 20/1 bog Bet365 the two 6 runner races haven't been priced up yet -
Re: Copa Del Rey > January 6th - 8th
Don't be so confident about it.There is still a plenty of time until the game and anything could happen.I am not writing off Messi transfer out' date='also i think if Barca fail today Enrique will get fired.Atletico are great but they are even better when they face Real Madrid because Barcelona are not great enemy as Real who are extremely lucky to play such an outsider on the weekend.They are totally out of form and if they keep going like this,Ancelotti wan't make it until the end of february,a month full of important games.[/quote'] I wouldn't say they are better when they play against Madrid. Just look how well they played against Barca in the CL last season. They're a group of players who thrive in the pressure of the big games with the specific instructions set by Simeone and will be up for the game at the weekend as much as any other big clash. I'll have to watch the game but the inexperienced line up put me off backing Atletico and I was surprised when I saw they won 2-0. I'm guessing it was another physical affair and that Madrid midfield without Alonso can easily be overpowered when the opposition gets tight and physical with them as we saw at the weekend when Valencia completely dominated them. Most of the time Madrid can use their pure talent to brush aside the opposition but when they play against talented individuals who aren't so easily beaten and also play a physical game they tend to struggle. Madrid will feel the loss of Alonso in the bigger games towards the end of the season I reckon and I'll probably be betting against them when they face talented sides who will also get tight and have the physicality to overpower them like Atletico, Sevilla, Valencia and perhaps Chelsea if they meet in the CL. -
Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Arkle Trophy Chase -Un de Sceaux (5/2) His aggressive attacking style is fantastic to watch but under the pressure of an Arkle over stiff Cheltenham fences I just get the feeling he could throw in a little mistake. Couple that with the fact he's never raced on anything better than soft I can't have him at this price. He's that type of horse who could make those who backed him or opposed him very stupid. -Vautour (8/1) I have a feeling Vautour could be Ricci's Gold Cup horse in the future as he jumps like someone who could do better over further. His Sire has produced the likes of Sir Des Champs and Quevega who were class acts over longer distances and I wouldn't be surprised to see Vautour follow suit. With stable companion Un de Sceaux for the Arkle I reckon Ricci will be happy to go for the JLT. -Josses Hill (10/1) Had a setback earlier in the season which is why we only saw Josses Hill over fences for the first time coming up to Christmas and he looked very inexperienced on his reappearance. He showed he will stay the JLT trip in that race but I reckon he'll go for the Arkle which looks less competitive and he was a very impressive 2m novice hurdler. He should come on a lot for that run but with not long left to Cheltenham now he's got some catching up to do against rivals who have three or four starts over fences already. Josses Hill kept Dunraven Storm 10L back who has form with Vibrato Valtat but with the way Dunraven Storm faded I would think that race was too soon for him and he would have hated the ground. -Clarcam (10/1) Clarcam is a good horse but I can't believe he's so short for an Arkle. Just days before his clash against Vautour bets were matched at nearly 200/1 for Gordon Elliot's charge to win the Arkle and I can't believe he's so short after winning a race which completely fell a part on heavy ground. I'm reading little into that race as Vautour smashed Clarcam on the bridle giving weight on his chasing debut. -Gilgamboa (12/1) Was mighty impressive in Limerick over 2m 3.5f so I see no reason why they would drop him back down in trip for the Arkle. He won on heavy over 2m 4f last season and on breeding he could be a 3m horse in time so it looks like he'll head for the JLT. -Ptit Zig (20/1) Has had a wonderful campaign so far but Nicholls has said he will head for the JLT unless the going gets soft. -Vibrato Valtat (20/1) Already a Grade 1 and 2 winner I feel this Nicholls horse is being underrated here. He's not an eye catching jumper with a big arcing leap like Vautour but he's quick and effective over his fences which is what you want in an Arkle. He travels strongly in his races and likes a good solid gallop which he will get in this contest especially with Un de Sceaux in the field. Irish Saint went into their Sandown clash as favourite but Nicholls admitted Vibrato Valtat had real ability after the race although he was also keen to stress the talent Irish Saint has over a longer trip. Vibrato Valtat has shown a really good attitude learning a great deal with each start and proved he's not just a bridle horse when he hit the front earlier than he would have liked, idled a bit before battling back to regain the lead over the smart Three Kingdoms. -The Rest Three Kingdoms was beaten fair and sqaure by Vibrato Valtat and I just feel the Nicholls horse has more scope for improvement so I can't really see him reversing the form. Sgt Reckless is a proper spring horse so I do think he's one to watch out for over the coming months but I don't think he has the class to win an Arkle and I thought Channon's decision to send him back over hurdles over Christmas was strange. Court Minstrel looks better over hurdles although Grumeti will relish the drier ground at Cheltenham and looks a little big at 40/1. He did well winning a decent novice chase a few days ago after being very weak in the betting and I reckon he'll be better when Cheltenham comes. -The Verdict With a few of these looking set for the JLT I can see Vibrato Valtat going off at least 3rd favourite with not much threatening from lower down in the betting. He reminds me a bit of Silviniaco Conti who like Vibrato Valtat doesn't win his races by much, can be a little suspect when in the lead, is not particularly striking over fences which has led him to be underrated. Nicholls has been a genius with headgear this season and he may be saving cheek pieces for a big Cheltenham run which will sharpen him up heading up the hill. He hasn't won at Cheltenham before but he's gone close twice, first when he found nothing off the bridle when looking the winner and secondly when understandably he was produced late and left with too much to do. Since then he has gone from strength to strength showing more versatility and just looks like a really progressive type who could find more even without headgear. If he was the horse he is now two months ago he would have won both those races at Cheltenham nicely and I don't think the hill will pose problems any more. Vibrato Valtat - Win @ 20/1 Ladbrokes
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Re: Trainer Form
Jonjo O'Neill has been on the cold list for a long time now but he had a 4/9 - 1/2 shot run today... Many would think a trainer on the cold list' date=' 4/9... Gotta be layed... And the horse was destroyed, well beat by the winner. Trainer form is very important, Nicholls at the start of this season said his horses might all need a run, and the majority did. The past few weeks he has been flying. No matter how good a horse is, if the trainer is cold you keep away unless the price is serious value.[/quote'] I agree about trainers who's horses are completely off the boil. Jonjo was being tipped as Champion Trainer earlier in the season but he hasn't done anything in the past couple of months and something really doesn't seem right in his yard so I would stay away. But just because Nicholls has been hitting great results it doesn't mean every single horse in his yard is going to find an extra lb on the racecourse. That's why I don't get trainer form as a factor when making a selection. For me you've got to look at the runner individually and ask yourself if he shaped as if he needed the run/will need the run, was there anything important the trainer/owners said, does he strip fitter in spring and so on. When a trainer has a number of horses in top condition he will generally hit good results and therefore be "in form" but it's not like all of a sudden his horses are all going to run better as they will be on different training regimes and have different targets. -
Re: Trainer Form I don't think many people here pay much attention to trainer form but I don't like the way it's constantly referred to on TV when it doesn't make much sense at all. I wonder how many times trainer form is referred to on a Saturday afternoon on C4 racing.
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Places at 10/1, 10/1 and now 16/1 but no wins. :wall Market told the story there and Harwoods Star wins easily. Draw bias still very much there with the winner in stall 2, second in 3, third in 1 and fourth in 4?
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell
Now out to 18.5 on Betfair, not the gamble it looked earlier in the morning. Harwoods Star very strong in the betting.Glad I took 16/1 ew last night on Steel City Boy which is as short as 15/2. Money has also come for new favourite Harwoods Star (7/2, 3/1) which is making his debut for new yard Stuart Williams, could be significant? -
Re: 2014 Review Treve winning the Arc was the highlight for me but I also thought The Grey Gatsby's win over Australia in the ICS was a fantastic moment in the racing year. Watching Vautour completely destroy the field in the Supreme was also special especially as it kicked off a great day punting wise with Jezki winning at 10/1 later. Belardo was my biggest priced winner at 16/1 in the Dewhurst but possibly the most satisfying winner I had was Bow Creek in the Boomerang Mile at Leopardstown when the race turned out exactly pretty much as I analysed it. I need to start asking myself whether the horse will win and not just outrun it's odds as I find my selections beat the Betfair SP a lot of the time and outrun their odds yet don't have enough to win. I bet to win most of the time so maybe introducing more each way betting would suit me better but I still need to look at my selection process. My discipline needs to improve as well if I want to be profitable. Overall I made a slight loss but a lot was learned and I'm looking forward to the new year.
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Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell
Me and my mate selected him earlier too. I backed Diamondsinthesky last time out when he was beaten by around a neck here and he may go better with a more experienced jockey on board but as top weight with no victory under his belt the 7/2 is unappealing. In the last 5f race here I backed Lucky Times over Divertimenti because I felt the latter was handicapped with a chance to place rather then win and I have the same concerns today like Trotter. Harwoods Star is dropping way back in trip and is an unknown on this surface so again the price is unappealing. That leaves Steel City Boy at 16/1 which looks a tasty price with a Bennett booked and a nice mark to race off.steel city boy 16/1!!.....im in !!.......i think divertimenti will be one to beat in.low draws and 5/1 looks cracking !! but 16/1 ?....thats just silly ....i think jockey crap thats why steel city boy hasnt really shown much ...much better one on now so no excuses ....lowest mark of 45 .... steel city boy 5pts ew 16/1 paddyp. -
There's a couple of threads about this on here but with a lot of new users it would be interesting to hear some different views. I've often struggled to get my head around trainer form as Alan King or David Pipe don't suddenly become better trainers coming up to Cheltenham it's just they campaign many of their horses for this time of the year and therefore have them in tip top shape. It would be hard to have certain horses at their peak from the start of the season right through to Cheltenham and you've got to ask yourself whether the horse is in top form, not whether the trainers horses are in form. You may get trainers who kick on through December and January as the ground gets heavy or in March and April as the ground improves but again this is the horses running in their conditions not the trainer suddenly getting things right. The only time I'm concerned with trainer form is when there's a problem in the yard or if their horses are running particularily bad like Jonjo O'Neill through November. So for me trainer form just makes you feel a little better about your selection as others have said before rather than being an important factor when making a pick. For me you've got to look at the horse individually and whether it will be in top form rather than if the trainer is in top form. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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Re: flat racing fri 2nd jan
I had Lucky Times at 10/1. :cryOh no........Incomparable was the 'other one' I considered in my Nap of the Day post......wins 10/1 -
Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 28th December 2014 1:20 Leopardstown I was very impressed with the way Un Atout battled back to get on terms with Mala Beach after a serious blunder. In the end he tired not surprisingly after smashing a fence early on and such a long lay off but it was a promising run against a talented opponent. He's lightly raced and will love the testing conditions over a trip which looks perfect given the ground. He was rated 151 over hurdles which included a 4th place behind Champagne Fever, MTOY and Jezki in the Supreme. I'm surprised to see 5/2 available. Un Atout - Win @ 5/2 Betvictor
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Re: Nap of the Day - Saturday 27th December 2014 1:35 Limerick Letter of Credit is running in handicap company for the first time since running in the Irish Grand National. He wore a hood for the first time that day and it's interesting that on his drop back to handicap company the hood goes back on suggesting his last two runs were a prep for a race like this. He's dropped down to his last winning mark and does his best work on heavy so he looks a player here. He made a bad mistake at the beginning of a grade 2 race last time out before recovering well and closing at the finish so he'll relish the step back up to 2m 4f and the price looks appealing. Letter of Credit - Win @ 20/1 PaddyPower
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Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 26th December 2014 1:25 Kempton Knock House flopped last time out at Cheltenham where the 3m on soft was too much for him. Back down to the trip of his eye catching Fakenham win over Top Totti who has won since on better ground should be right up his street. He jumped brilliantly that day and the way he quickened clear of the field around the final bend shows sharp tracks are no obstacle. AP is a great booking and while River Maigue and Katgary also have strong claims, this is a tough race to prove your jumping and Knock House really did look like a top class prospect before going to Cheltenham. Knock House - Win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 18th December 2014 7:15 Kempton Although he hasn't hit the heights of his form in Australia Linton is off the back of a decent run in a listed race and drops back in class here. He looks the main Botti hope here and should be right there if he takes to the surface with blinkers back on. The favourite is a progressive type but he's got a bit to find with his competitors and looks worth taking on at the prices. Linton - Win @ 9/2 Ladbrokes
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Re: The Jockey Thread I think Kevin Sexton deserves a mention here. He caught the eye when winning on Balbriggan for Gordon Elliot and has been riding for him in big Sunday handicaps in Ireland since losing out by 1/2 a length on Vasco du Mee at Fairyhouse before finishing 4th on Lord Scoundrel last Sunday at Navan. Both Balbriggan and Vasco du Mee were huge gambles so when 3lb claimer Sexton is booked to ride for Elliot in a big handicap it looks wise to pay special attention. Definitely looks like a jockey with some talent as he as shown particularly over the past month.
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Re: Flat Racing 18th December 3:00 Southwell
I always check out the 5F races at Southwell as I have a theory that 9 times out of 10 there is a huge advantage to being drawn low Any horse drawn in the 1, 2 or 3 stalls that is a CD winner and preferably a front runner is worth backing EW if it's a big price (Royal Bajan, stall 2, won at the last meeting at 33/1) So today I'm going for ....... Sou 2.30 - Shawkantango - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill Stall 1 he's not a front runner but that's not stopped him winning 7 times over CD. He's not particularly well handicapped as he's 3lbs above last winning mark in a hcap but has been running into form in two runs since a break and should be cherry ripe now. Usually wins in class 6 these days and this is class 5........but if the low draw gives him an edge then he could overcome these negatives (and of course without these negatives he wouldn't be 25/1 :lol )
From Trotter's theory I've picked one out for this 5f race at Southwell. Laughing Rock is in stall 1 and is now back under his last winning mark which was well over a year ago but he's only raced over 5f twice and probably wants a little further based on his last run over this distance. His record at Southwell isn't great although he go close on his only other start over 5f at this course when beaten by 1/2 a length. Saffire Song looks a real interesting one from stall 2. His bare form looks terrible but he's dropping in class here and has tumbled in the weights now running off a mark of 64. Another thing to note is that he won on his only start at Southwell over this distance despite being hampered and produced a personal best RPR which still stands. Tim Clarke takes a further 5lbs off and he looks a player below his last winning mark. Divertimenti runs from stall 3 and has won once here at Southwell while also finishing 2nd twice and third three times. He only lost out by 1/2 a length over course and distance 5 days ago from a high draw so he looks one to watch here. Not sure the trip will exactly suit Laughing Rock as well as the surface so I prefer to look at the other two. Divertimenti looks a player but at the bigger price I fancy Saffire Song who should relish the return to fibresand. Off a mark of 64, 2lbs below his last win here at Southwell with the jockey claiming a further 5lbs I fancy him to go well. Saffire Song - Win @ 10/1 PaddyPoweryeah.........if he hadn't given the field 6 or 7 lengths at the start he'd have won in a canter ! The horse in stall 2 was fatally injured during the race (when looking like being placed or finishing 4th) and the first 3 home came from stalls 1, 3 and 4 -
Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 16th December 2014
Price changed to 10/1 as I was writing the post.4:20 Kempton Bittern ran a promising race on debut but a lack of experience showed on his latest start at Lingfield when he hung right around the bend giving himself no chance when in a nice position. The experience will do him good and now going right handed with Kirby on board we may see some improvement. Interestingly one of the lads on Racing UK highlighted the fact that horses going from Lingfield to Kempton tend to win more often than the Betfair SP suggest so this Godolphin colt has a few things going for him at a biggish price. Bittern - Win @ 12/1 Betvictor -
Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 16th December 2014 4:20 Kempton Bittern ran a promising race on debut but a lack of experience showed on his latest start at Lingfield when he hung right around the bend giving himself no chance when in a nice position. The experience will do him good and now going right handed with Kirby on board we may see some improvement. Interestingly one of the lads on Racing UK highlighted the fact that horses going from Lingfield to Kempton tend to win more often than the Betfair SP suggest so this Godolphin colt has a few things going for him at a biggish price. Bittern - Win @ 12/1 Betvictor
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Re: Flat Racing 16th December
Recovered brilliantly to finish 3rd. Theory looks good indeed.I always check out the 5F races at Southwell as I have a theory that 9 times out of 10 there is a huge advantage to being drawn low Any horse drawn in the 1, 2 or 3 stalls that is a CD winner and preferably a front runner is worth backing EW if it's a big price (Royal Bajan, stall 2, won at the last meeting at 33/1) So today I'm going for ....... Sou 2.30 - Shawkantango - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill Stall 1 he's not a front runner but that's not stopped him winning 7 times over CD. He's not particularly well handicapped as he's 3lbs above last winning mark in a hcap but has been running into form in two runs since a break and should be cherry ripe now. Usually wins in class 6 these days and this is class 5........but if the low draw gives him an edge then he could overcome these negatives (and of course without these negatives he wouldn't be 25/1 :lol ) -
Re: Nap Of The Day > Sunday December 14th 2:35 Navan Aupcharlie never really fulfilled his potential after narrowly losing out in a Grade 1 Novice Chase at the Leopardstown and dodgy jumping has always been a problem for him. However since joining De Bromhead he's improved in that regard and has dropped to a workable mark of 143. He seems to like the proper winter conditions and the softer going at Navan should be right up his street as it is a course where it can get tough with some rain. JJ Burke has had a good season and he takes a further 3lbs off. De Bromhead is good at getting his horses right after a lay off and looks a decent play at these prices. Aupcharlie - Win @ 12/1 Ladbrokes
The Jockey Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: The Jockey Thread
To be honest I thought he was unlucky. The horse was travelling well and a gap was opening on the inside before a quickly weakening Silverware shut it closed. It would have been mad to start moving wide when it looked as if there was going to be a clear passage through into the home straight.