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arsenalfh

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Posts posted by arsenalfh

    Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Bob's Worth has become a bit of a forgotten horse for me. His reappearance in the Lexus was lacklustre much like his effort in the Betfair Chase the year before but I've no doubt he'll come on for the run and Henderson will have him spot on for Cheltenham. There are some nice improvers in the field but I don't know how he can go from a 6/4 shot in the last Gold Cup to a 16/1 chance this time with no obvious signs of regression. He had a massive chance of winning this race for the second year running before stumbling on landing at the last and I don't think anyone knows what happened to him and Silviniaco Conti after that. That run was just two starts ago and he's a gutsy performer who will gallop all the way up the hill. Like Lord Windermere I think his trainer has just one thing in mind and he has a really solid chance in an open contest. I can't have Silviniaco Conti at such a short price when Nicholls has clearly stated he's better on flat tracks and I really don't think he has much over some of his competitors. Many Clouds has been super impressive this season and confirmed himself as a big contender with a bold jumping display last time out. He's a horse I like however his record on quicker ground is poor and I'm not sure if I'd take a chance on him at 8/1. Djakadam who also has a progressive profile looks more like a contender for next year as he's only 6 and he didn't beat much in the Thyestes but has obvious scope for improvement, just this race looks a little too soon. Sam Winner is an interesting one as he doesn't seem to have the talent of some of the others but he's a real battler and was only beaten 8L in the RSA last year. He's much improved since then under Nicholls only beaten just over 3L by Road to Riches in the Lexus so on his return to Cheltenham he might be able to hit the frame at 33/1. I don't think Carlingford Lough jumps well enough to win a hot contest like this and I much prefer Road to Riches to him and of course you have to consider Lord Windermere at 14/1 with his record at Cheltenham. At 16/1 I'm liking the look of Bob's Worth although I haven't placed any bets yet.

    Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15

    in Portugal Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Have to say Porto have been very disappointing under Lopetegui. I thought they would be an exciting team to watch this year but they struggle to create chances and many of their signings have been disappointing. I think Sporting have a a good chance of getting something from the Dragao at the weekend but a Europa League tie just 3 days before the game is hardly ideal.

    Breaking News - AP to retire !

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Breaking News - AP to retire ! I reckon Townend will wait to take over from Ruby and unless Geraghty wants a shot at being Champion jockey I don't think he'll fancy riding weekdays at Uttoxeter and Towcester throughout the year. He lives in Ireland as doesn't he so he'd have to move to the UK. Mark Walsh will get the job it looks like.

    National Hunt Racing > Sunday February 8th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: National Hunt Racing > Sunday February 8th Leopardstown 2:15 Cracking renewal of this race and I think it's worth looking at a couple at bigger prices. Alvisio Ville has been smashed in for the Neptune and this is reflected in his price. He won his maiden nicely but is well too short in such a competitive race with so many classy unexposed horses. Ruby has gone with Nichols Canyon over Sempre Medici but the latter ran a fine race behind Jollyallen who went ever so close to beating 154 rated Garde La Victoire next time out so that looks a very good novice hurdle. Sempre Medici made good progress entering the home straight and would have gone very close if he jumped better throughout and not clattered the last. He would be my pick out of the Mullins pair at the prices. Weld's first string Windsor Park is another interesting runner who disappointed last time here in a grade 2. He was held up that day which didn't suit and since he's dropping back in trip I reckon they'll revert to front running tactics as he stays well but also has speed as he showed in his maiden hurdle win. Second string Silver Concorde won the Champion Bumper last year but has been a bit disappointing away from Cheltenham and Windsor Park looks more appealing. Cooper said that he would have picked Tell Us More who was beaten by Mckinley over Identity Thief if he ran and the latter is very short with a few who have stronger form. Sandra Hughes' runner is a half brother to Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere but I reckon Sub Lieutenant will be much better over further and is one to keep an eye on in the future. Mckinley battled really well the last time to win a grade 1 but he's more exposed than some really talented novices and I would be surprised if he wins tomorrow. The first three in the market are well worth taking on in my eyes and Sempre Medici should go very close to winning this if he's learned from his trip to Kempton over Christmas. He may still be untidy over his hurdles as Ruby's gone with Nichols Canyon but the price takes this into account and sometimes you never know how much they've improved until they're sent to the racecourse. Windsor Park was really impressive winning here in December and I think we'll see a big improvement with a change of tactics. Sempre Medici - 2pts each-way @ 16/1 Ladbrokes Windsor Park - 2pts each way @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

    National Hunt Racing > Sunday February 8th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: National Hunt Racing > Sunday February 8th Leopardstown 1:15 Kalkir was a bit keen over Christmas and may jump better in drier ground but it's hard to find excuses for him and his Fairyhouse win doesn't look like very strong form. Vercingetorix looks another top class French recruit for Simon Munir and he was very impressive on his first start over jumps but the horse I like at the prices is Officieux. This horse absolutely bolted up at Fairyhouse after a change in tactics in a decent looking maiden and Meade reckons he'll be even better on this drier ground. He set a strong pace, settled well and didn't look like stopping at all. He'll likely get some competition up front this time from Chatham House Rule who beat stable mate Petite Parisienne but he went off 66/1 the time before that and connections don't seem to rate him listening to Elliot. Cooper wasn't happy with the ride he gave Petite Parisienne that day and I fancy her to reverse the form with her stable mate but Officieux looks like he could be a lot better than his price suggests. Officieux - 1pt Win @ 10/1 Coral

    Nap of the Day - Saturday February 7th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Newbury 3:35 Wicklow Brave doesn't look the most straightforward to train but he's a classy horse who went off 8/1 for the Supreme and after a break I'm hoping Mullins can get him right. I don't think Mullins would send him over with Ruby on board if he didn't feel he had a chance and if he can return to the form he showed this time last year he would have huge claims. There's been some money for him today and at such a big price I'll take a chance on him returning to form. Wicklow Brave - 0.5pts each-way @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

    The Betting Lab

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Betting Lab Have a few questions for those who make or have made tissues in the past. This punting advice thread here is also a great read for any newer users as there's some good discussion on the concept of value and betting tissues. Would you have to have an edge of say 5% on the best odds available before placing a bet? Does the market affect your bets? If a horse drifts out giving you a bigger edge would you place a bigger bet? Or would a big drift put you off backing a horse even if it is value in your book? Do you bet each way, win only or both? On a more general note does anyone feel that horses well beaten in maiden and novice hurdles can be massively overpriced next time out? I don't have any data to back this up and I know making a tissue for these races can be very difficult but it's something I may look at over the coming months. Any answers or other tips on betting tissues would be greatly appreciated. :ok

    NAP of the day | Sunday 1st Feb

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NAP of the day | Sunday 1st Feb 2:50 Chelmsford With the backing of Russian millionaires John Best has better facilities to work with including a new 5f AW gallop. Stone of Folca was a classy horse in the past and is now racing off a very low mark of 78. I'm hoping with the new gallop and Kirby booked this we will see a return to form here and I reckon he should go very close in a class 4 event. Stone of Folca - Win @ 7/1 StanJames

    Flat Racing - Tuesday 27th Janaury

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Southwell 2:10 Abi Scarlet - Loves it at Southwell but is a very unappealing favourite stepping up from wins in a claimer then seller. Doesn't look particularly well handicapped based on her last few runs in handicap company and you have to wonder if the trainer thinks the same with Morris switching over to stable mate Six Wives allowing claimer David Parkes to take 7lbs off. Barbs Princess - Up 3lbs after battling to win last time out and this lightly raced filly could progress further. She was held up that day and it remains to be seen if she takes to the fibresand and to the style of racing at Southwell. Musical Molly - Has been off form in recent starts here and is only down 1lb. Not sure she is well treated here and the 4/1 looks too short. Six Wives - Goes well at Southwell and front runs which is a plus. Recent form has been poor but she has been running in better company from high draws on the 5f course here and we all know how big a disadvantage that is. Now down 8lbs from her last win with Morris booked she can put in a better performance. The big question is if the longer trip will suit. Verdict: The decision to put a claimer on the favourite rather than Morris has to raise the question whether Dixon really believes Abi Scarlet can win off this mark. She carried 9-1 the last day and was given top weight of 9-7 here so perhaps the trainer can't see her winning with so much weight on her back. The second favourite has to prove she can perform at Southwell and the third in the betting has questions to answer off this mark after two poor runs with no excuses. With not much pace in this affair Morris may be able to dictate from the front and hold the lead on Six Wives. The trip is a bit of an unknown but this has been well and truly incorporated into her price and she has a lot going in her favour off a very low mark. With the others vulnerable Six Wives looks a good bet at a nice price. Six Wives - 2pts Win @ 12/1 Bet365

    Arsenal v Aston Villa > Sunday February 1st

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Arsenal v Aston Villa > Sunday February 1st

    I certainly agree that Arsenal will win this game but return of Ozil' date=' I think, is till a question mark. Spending over £40M and not generating even 20 goals or assists...I think Alexis justified the money he has been getting paid.[/quote'] He has 9 goals and 16 assists in probably less than a season's games which is pretty good when you think about it. He's not the most versatile player like Sanchez who can play out wide or up front in pretty much any system as he really needs some pacey forwards and two solid midfielders behind him but there's no doubt he is a player of immense quality. He gets a lot of unnecessary stick as he started last season so well before hitting a rough patch in the new year as so many La Liga recruits do while settling in (eg. Silva, Cazorla). Arsenal are certainly looking good at the moment with Sanchez, Rosicky and Cazorla in such good form, the emergence of Coquelin and the return of Walcott and Ozil as well. Hoping this form continues but we haven't put a good run of games together all season.

    Five Furlong Races at Southwell

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Southwell 2:30 Zac Brown (5/2): This is a favourite I'm really keen to take on. He runs from stall 8 and tends to be held up in his races so I can see him struggling to get involved in his first run on fibresand. He won well the last day and looks a good prospect but I don't think this race is set up to suit at all and the price is well too short. Scarborough (11/4): Won pretty comfortably last time here and looks like a horse who can progress further. He has everything you want in a horse at Southwell and the higher draw probably won't be too much of an inconvenience since there's only 8 runners and he gets out of the stalls quickly. He was well backed the last day and he'll probably go off a good deal shorter than 11/4. Woolfall Sovereign (6/1): This is another runner who won last time beating the useful Dungannon off level weights. He's up 6lbs and is exposed as a 9 yo but he loves it here at Southwell and from a good draw he'll probably go well. 6/1 looks a fair enough price. Royal Bajan (12/1): Beaten 5L by Zac Brown at Chelmsford and 3.75L by Woolfall Sovereign the time before as an exposed 7 yo doesn't fill you with confidence but he has a 6lbs swing in the weights to the favourite and a massive 10lbs swing to Woolfall Sovereign. He goes well at Southwell and shows early speed which he'll put to good use from stall 5. Verdict: The runners in stall 1 and 3 have no experience at Southwell and aren't too appealing although Perfect Pasture has only had two runs this winter after progressing nicely during 2013. He could have more to give if he takes to the surface but Royal Bajan looks set to run a big race with his past competitors giving him weight. He'll relish these conditions unlike Zac Brown who is giving weight and in receipt of 10lbs the handicapper has given him a decent chance to reverse the form with Woolfull Sovereign. Scarborough looks the pick of the runners but at 12/1 I'll take him on with one of the outsiders. Royal Bajan - 1pt each way @ 12/1 BetVictor/Betfair Sportsbook

    Copa Del Rey > January 13th - 15th

    in Spanish Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Copa Del Rey > January 13th - 15th

    I'm not sure about Real v Atletico. Games between these two are often tight and Atletico are often priced too long (as in the first leg). I do like Barcelona's odds in their second leg at Elche though. Barcelona lead 5-0 from the first leg. Although Barcelona are apparently fielding mainly B players, I think Barcelona B may well prove too good for Elche and win by a few goals.
    I agree, can't have Real at such a short price but I'm reluctant to play against them considering a one goal defeat is good enough for Atletico and they were really poor against Barca at the weekend. Not sure what was going on at the weekend but the amount of space Atletico gave Barca between the lines was far too big. Something was off with their shape and pressing that day and they didn't look threatening going forward at all. No bet for me.

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

    Some fantastic news from continental Europe's oldest racetrack Bad Doberan! After it looked likely that the track would have to stop racing this year due to financial difficulties, news emerged today that the track is saved - largely through a new bookies deal with German Racing, which enables Bad Doberan races to be made available for betting worldwide - including live stream! Before that it was only possible to bet into the local tote. Bad Doberan, that is a small little track on the Baltic coast in east Germany. It's my local track, since I am from that area, born and living there until moving to Ireland, but family is still there - and have been at the track as a child and through my teens basically every summer gambling away my pocket money. It was only a 25min bike ride from home. The track holds one annual "Ostsee Meeting" - a four day bonanza which attracts huge crowds of up to 10.000 on any given day during the week. It's a small track, with only a temporary stand, build always for the meeting. But now, there may build a permanent one, which would absolutely fantastic! My dream is to have one day a really good horse that wins a couple of Group 1's in Ireland and Europe and to bring the horse then over to Bad Doberan to contest in the main race of the meeting...
    That's fantastic news. Like yourself I think, I'm a massive fan of big international meetings like the Arc weekend and the Breeders Cup which attract runners from abroad. It's always great to hear good news about racing around Europe.
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