arsenalfh
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Posts posted by arsenalfh
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 26th March 2015 3:05 Newbury I like backing horses who have shown promise but disappointed over the winter and Flying Eagle fits that profile for Peter Bowen. He was a good 4th in a class 2 event last April when he appeared to not quite get the 3m trip weakening after the last and also showed promise when winning a hurdle at Ffos Las easily. He disappointed twice as favourite twice this season but ground wouldn't have suited the first time and he lost his action the second time according to the RP. He looks well treated based on his form from last season and by Oscar he should relish the good ground. Cheekpieces and a tongue tie go on for the first time which should also help him recapture last seasons form. Flying Eagle - 0.5pts each-way @ 16/1 William Hill, Bet365
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Re: Nap of the Day Competition - Tuesday 24th March 2015 4:35 Wolverhampton Bute Hall was running credibly in some competitive Class 2 handicaps last season including at York when he was 4th behind Arab Spring who later went off evens favourite in a Group 2. He had Amralah (probably didn't quite run his race) a length behind him that day who went on to win a Group 3 and the form of the other races he competed have held up well. He ran a decent race on his reappearance considering he was blocked off coming into the straight when favourite but was a little disappointing in Class 2 company next time. Interestingly the shortest he's ever won over is an extended 1m 4f and he's 2 from 4 over 1m 6f so the step back up to this trip should be right in his favour. He's down to 78, 1lb above his last win which was over C&D and if first time cheek pieces and step back up in trip help him regain his form from last spring he should be right there. Bute Hall - 1pt Win @ 20/1 Bet365
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 23rd March 2015 2:50 Taunton She's da One ran really well before weakening in heavy conditions on his first start over jumps. Sam Twiston Davies had her well wide of the field and since she's by Presenting we should see significant improvement. She cost 100k for connection after winning a point to point easily and might have too much for these on her preferred surface. She's de One - 1pt Win @ 5/2 Bet365
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Re: Nap of the day 22nd March 2015 4:10 Market Rasen This is a contest full of exposed horses giving If It Be Your Will a great chance to get off the mark. He caught the eye on his first start over fences jumping well to finish only 2L back in third over a trip far too sharp for him. That was a decent looking contest and the step up to 2m 4f will be massively in his favour. It doesn't look a race that will take a lot of winning and off the same mark he has a massive chance. If It Be Your Will - 1pt Win @ 11/8 PaddyPower
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Re: Nap of the day Saturday 21st march 2015 4:05 Gowran Park It's easy to dismiss a horse who makes all to win for a tiny yard at a big price as a fluke but I thought Scooping was super impressive when winning on her debut over hurdles. She was a decent flat horse who started off with Richard Hannon before moving to Ireland and really took to the jumps game. She jumped nicely on her first start and had a lot of her rivals in trouble from a fair bit out which was a decent race with a couple of subsequent winners and a few who travelled to Cheltenham for the Fred Winter. One of those horses was the 137 rated Dai Bando who caught her on the home straight but she impressively brushed him off with ease and went 3 or 4 lengths on the flat. She hasn't raced since and may find these geldings too tough for her but she's a mature performer and looks a tough nut to crack receiving all the allowances. Scooping - 1pt Win @ 10/1 PaddyPower
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Re: nap of the day - friday 20th 2:10 Newbury Rock the Kasbah hasn't lived up to the promise he showed in his first three starts being beaten at odds on twice since. The smart Vago Collonges and subsequent winner Remiluc were ahead of him that day but he was even more disappointing next time when beaten at 2/7. Conditions were really testing that day though which is a possible excuse and the good ground today should bring the best out of him looking at his pedigree. Champagne Express is well too short on what he has done in my view beating 131, 130 and 128 rated rivals and Inner Drive is a bit of an unknown after winning easily last time. Those two now have penalties and receiving weight Rock the Kasbah looks a big price to get back on track in conditions more in his favour. Rock the Kasbah - 1pt Win @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 19th Wolfsburg went to Sporting with a two goal advantage in the last round and were happy to defend the whole game. They barely created any chances at all and with a two goal advantage tonight I'm sure they'll be happy to do the same. I don't rate Inter and I can see them struggling to break the away side down. I can see why the odds on the draw are high as Inter need to win and Wolfsburg have a fantastic record of 9 wins in 12 but they'll set up completely differently tonight and the draw has a much higher chance of happening than the odds suggest. 1pt Draw @ 3.75 Bet365
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 19th
Wolfsburg were very defensive when they carried a lead to the Alvalade in the last round against Sporting. That match finished 0-0 and although both teams hit the post (if I remember correctly) Wolfsburg rarely threatened. If Wolfsburg turn up today with the same game plan I could easily see a low scoring game or even another 0-0 draw.Inter - Wolfsburg The goal difference gives Wolfsburg safety and the Germans won't have the urge to play offensive. On the other hand Inter has to press from the first moment but they are not in the best shape lately and especially after the latest result against Cesena. Another difficult game follows against Samdoria at Sunday and the nerazzurri have to manage all these. Since Inter has to be carefull in the defense as if they concede a goal then game is over and since Wolfsburg won't rush as they have the result of the first game on their side, i don't expect this game to end over 2.5 goals. Under 2.5 @ 2.50 Marathonbet -
Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 19th 8:10 Chelmsford I like the chances of the Charlie Appleby trained Monein here. The stable has a really strong team for the all weather and boast an incredible strike rate. Monein is 2-2 and overcame trouble in running to win the last day so with his polytrack experience may have too much for the Qatari owned Rocky Rider. Monein - 1pt Win @ 13/8 PaddyPower
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Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 18th March 2015 2:55 Chelmsford The Third Man ran on well to finish 3rd at Kempton last time but the steady gallop and the trip around the inner track wouldn't have played to his strengths. Although he's up a 1lb for that the form has worked out well and he's related to some horses rated 3 figures so he should be winning a contest like this very soon. Watersmeet has received support off a break but he won't get his own way up front with a couple of prominent runners and this could set things up perfectly for The Third Man. The Third Man - 1pt Win @ 11/4 Betvictor
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 16th March 2015 4:40 Southwell Sea Pride has drifted out quite badly this morning which is a slight concern but the 7/2 now available looks a lovely price for a Sea the Stars filly who has gone close on her only 2 starts. She was only beaten a nose last time and her experience gives her a nice advantage over her competitors here. Drift a bit of a concern but on what she has shown the 7/2 looks a very big price. Sea Pride - 1pt Win @ 7/2 Betvictor
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Re: Nap of the day 14th March 2015 Kempton 5:15 Midnight Cowboy ran well on his first start finishing second and should come on for that on ground which will suit him more. Alan King won this last year and saddled the second the year before so I suspect this race has been the target for Midnight Cowboy for a while. Also gets a 4 yo allowance so he must have a big chance. Midnight Cowboy - 1pt Win @ 9/4
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Re: Up,Down,Level First two days were horrible without any winners but Thursday and Friday couldn't have gone any better. Thursday started well with an each-way double of Apache Stronghold and Monetaire which yielded a small return and Aqalim placed for me at 33/1 after a great ride by STD in the Pertemps. Then Uxizandre won for me at 25/1 and Toast's great pick At Fishers Cross was beaten a neck into a place at 40/1. Edeymi, Double Ross and Un Temps Pour Tout were a bit disappointing. Peace and Co set up today nicely before Killultagh Vic won at 10/1 and Eastlake placed for me in the last. Not sure what happened to my big fancy Shantou Bob who really ran in snatches. Still maintain he's very talented but it will be interesting to hear what Warren Greatrex had to say as he seemed quietly confident. My other bets were Bobs Worth who looks finished, Many Clouds, Waxies Dargle and Paint The Clouds. Next year I probably won't do as many ante post bets as although most of them went off a lot shorter I wouldn't have backed Vibrato Valtat or Un Temps Pour Tout on the day. I also wouldn't have backed Paint The Clouds in these conditions while Bobs Worth and Double Ross were available at bigger prices. At Fishers Cross was the only ante post bet I was really happy with. In the few days around the declaration stages there seemed to be some decent value available though and that's when I got Uxizandre at 25/1 for the Ryanair. Still not disciplined enough as I threw on Jezki even though I didn't fancy him at all and there were probably a couple of other bets I shouldn't have placed which is something to work on. Delighted to make a profit though and what a week of racing. Un de Sceaux, Vautour, Uxizandre and Coneygree were a joy to watch as there's nothing better than seeing a chaser jump and gallop their rivals into the ground.
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Re: Cheltenham Tipsters Competition ~ Final Table Thanks very much again BH.
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Re: Tipsters Comp ~ Day 4 (Friday) Selections 1.30: Peace and Co 2.05: Waxies Dargle 2.40: Shantou Bob 3.20: Many Clouds 4.00: Caronstown Boy 4.40: Killultagh Vic 5.15: Eastlake
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Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm
I backed Bob's Worth at 16/1 but I'm a bit worried about the rain as Henderson seems to think he needs quick ground even though he won this on soft two years ago. Still considering one of Many Clouds, Coneygree and Lord Windermere depending on the ground.I'm struggling here. Looking at the field, they're gonna go off bloody hard I'd imagine. I'm concerned it could fall apart at the business end and a strong stayer from off the pace could pick up the pieces like last year. My problem is Holywell and Carlingford Lough's jumping, and the well-being of Bob's Worth and Lord Windermere as they are my fancies off a strong gallop. Hmmm. Many Clouds and Coneygree could grind it out but unless the rain really comes they might not be able to do that. I'd say 10 horses have a decent chance in this. Nightmare! -
Re: Nap of the Day - Friday March 13th
2:40 CheltenhamShantou Bob has shown a lot of promise this season for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex but was a beaten odds on favourite last time. However the time before that he stayed on well up the hill at Sandown while hanging and was only beaten a nose by Vyta du Roc which caught my attention. He has a bit of guts about him which is what you want in an Albert Bartlett and Vyta du Roc franked the form when running a cracker in the Neptune before blundering at the last. He hasn’t travelled well through his last two races and it’s interesting what Warren Greatrex had to say after his last run: "There was a trace of blood in his nostril after the race, but after scoping him it's clear it hasn't come from his lungs and he has just burst a blood vessel in his nostril, which isn't anything serious. "I haven't had chance to have him checked out yet, but I have a feeling that he may have a small wind issue. "He only ran on Saturday, so we'll give him a few days to get over it and then get him looked at, but I just have it in the back of my mind there is a minor problem there. "He was struggling a long way from home on Saturday, which just isn't him. He's a horse who should travel well in his races. "His jumping wasn't as good as it can be either, which gives me the impression that maybe he was thinking about something else. "He did a similar thing at Sandown the time before - hitting a flat spot before running on. I put a tongue-tie on him that day, which was more precautionary than anything, but maybe his wind has got worse since. "It's a weird thing to say, but it's almost a good thing, as we know that wasn't his running on Saturday and hopefully it's something we can put right. "It's not as though he ran terribly, but I do think he's better than he showed on Saturday." So this gelding has had its problems yet still has produced some top class novice form. Not only did Vyta du Roc frank the form but Tara Point won a listed contest comfortably and Ordo Ab Chao went on to beat Value at Risk in a Grade 2 who is generally a 10/1 shot for this. The step up to 3m looks exactly what this he wants on breeding and looking at way he rallied back against Vyta du Roc up the Sandown hill. The vet alleviated concerns about the burst blood vessel and he had a wind op with Cole Harden who ran away with the World Hurdle today. He’s the gutsy type of horse who I would want to back in a race like this and after the improvement Warren got out of Cole Harden it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him show considerable improvement. The 40/1 available on Skybet is absolutely massive for a horse who has shown this level of form. Shantou Bob - 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Skybet -
Shantou Bob has shown a lot of promise this season for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex but was a beaten odds on favourite last time. However the time before that he stayed on well up the hill at Sandown while hanging and was only beaten a nose by Vyta du Roc which caught my attention. He has a bit of guts about him which is what you want in an Albert Bartlett and Vyta du Roc franked the form when running a cracker in the Neptune before blundering at the last. He hasn’t travelled well through his last two races and it’s interesting what Warren Greatrex had to say after his last run: "There was a trace of blood in his nostril after the race, but after scoping him it's clear it hasn't come from his lungs and he has just burst a blood vessel in his nostril, which isn't anything serious. "I haven't had chance to have him checked out yet, but I have a feeling that he may have a small wind issue. "He only ran on Saturday, so we'll give him a few days to get over it and then get him looked at, but I just have it in the back of my mind there is a minor problem there. "He was struggling a long way from home on Saturday, which just isn't him. He's a horse who should travel well in his races. "His jumping wasn't as good as it can be either, which gives me the impression that maybe he was thinking about something else. "He did a similar thing at Sandown the time before - hitting a flat spot before running on. I put a tongue-tie on him that day, which was more precautionary than anything, but maybe his wind has got worse since. "It's a weird thing to say, but it's almost a good thing, as we know that wasn't his running on Saturday and hopefully it's something we can put right. "It's not as though he ran terribly, but I do think he's better than he showed on Saturday." So this gelding has had its problems yet still has produced some top class novice form. Not only did Vyta du Roc frank the form but Tara Point won a listed contest comfortably and Ordo Ab Chao went on to beat Value at Risk in a Grade 2 who is generally a 10/1 shot for this. The step up to 3m looks exactly what this he wants on breeding and looking at way he rallied back against Vyta du Roc up the Sandown hill. The vet alleviated concerns about the burst blood vessel and he had a wind op with Cole Harden who ran away with the World Hurdle today. He’s the gutsy type of horse who I would want to back in a race like this and after the improvement Warren got out of Cole Harden it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him show considerable improvement. The 40/1 available on Skybet is absolutely massive for a horse who has shown this level of form. Shantou Bob - 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Skybet
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Re: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle > Friday March 13th @ 2:40pm Shantou Bob has shown a lot of promise this season for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex but was a beaten odds on favourite last time. However the time before that he stayed on well up the hill at Sandown while hanging and was only beaten a nose by Vyta du Roc which caught my attention. He has a bit of guts about him which is what you want in an Albert Bartlett and Vyta du Roc franked the form when running a cracker in the Neptune before blundering at the last. He hasn’t travelled well through his last two races and it’s interesting what Warren Greatrex had to say after his last run: "There was a trace of blood in his nostril after the race, but after scoping him it's clear it hasn't come from his lungs and he has just burst a blood vessel in his nostril, which isn't anything serious. "I haven't had chance to have him checked out yet, but I have a feeling that he may have a small wind issue. "He only ran on Saturday, so we'll give him a few days to get over it and then get him looked at, but I just have it in the back of my mind there is a minor problem there. "He was struggling a long way from home on Saturday, which just isn't him. He's a horse who should travel well in his races. "His jumping wasn't as good as it can be either, which gives me the impression that maybe he was thinking about something else. "He did a similar thing at Sandown the time before - hitting a flat spot before running on. I put a tongue-tie on him that day, which was more precautionary than anything, but maybe his wind has got worse since. "It's a weird thing to say, but it's almost a good thing, as we know that wasn't his running on Saturday and hopefully it's something we can put right. "It's not as though he ran terribly, but I do think he's better than he showed on Saturday." So this gelding has had its problems yet still has produced some top class novice form. Not only did Vyta du Roc frank the form but Tara Point won a listed contest comfortably and Ordo Ab Chao went on to beat Value at Risk in a Grade 2 who is generally a 10/1 shot for this. The step up to 3m looks exactly what this he wants on breeding and looking at way he rallied back against Vyta du Roc up the Sandown hill. The vet alleviated concerns about the burst blood vessel and he had a wind op with Cole Harden who ran away with the World Hurdle today. He’s the gutsy type of horse who I would want to back in a race like this and after the improvement Warren got out of Cole Harden it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him show considerable improvement. The 40/1 available on Skybet is absolutely massive for a horse who has shown this level of form. Shantou Bob - 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Skybet
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Re: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate > Thursday March 12th @ 4:00pm Champion Court was a classy competitor at his best and is now 16lbs lower than when 7th in this last year. He ran an ok race in the Paddy Power hitting 8.0 in running from 20/1 so I don't think he's completely gone at the game. He's certainly been given a chance by the handicapper and has received a bit of support so I'll take a chance on him returning to form at a big price. Champion Court - 1pt each way @ 25/1 Bet365
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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 12th March 2015 2:05 Cheltenham Last time at Musselbrugh I felt Edeymi's jockey was borderline not trying. This race is clearly the plan and I would have to think he comes here with a big chance off this mark. Horses at the bottom of the weights tend to run well in this which is another positive. Edeymi - 1pt Win @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
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Re: Tipsters Comp ~ Day 3 (Thursday) Selections 1.30: Vautour 2.05: Edeymi 2.40: Uxizandre 3.20: At Fishers Cross 4.00: Champion Court 4.40: Grand Vision
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Re: Pertemps Network Final > Thursday March 12th @ 2:05pm Last time at Musselbrugh I felt Edeymi's jockey was borderline not trying. This race is clearly the plan and I would have to think he comes here with a big chance off this mark. Horses at the bottom of the weights tend to run well in this which is another positive. Aqalim was beaten by Bygones Sovereign who should give a good account of himself from the front again last time but it was an encouraging first attempt at 3 miles. He's lightly raced and like Edeymi is running off 10-9 so we should expect some improvement from this 5 yo. Twiston Davies is a great booking and although he runs a little lazily he seems to stay well and the first time visor may help him travel better through the race. The 33/1 available looks too big especially with many bookies paying out 5 places. Edeymi - 1pt each-way @ 8/1 PaddyPower Aqalim - 1pt each-way @ 33/1 StanJames
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Re: Tipsters Comp ~ Day 2 (Wednesday) Selections 1.30: Nichols Canyon 2.05: Don Poli 2.40: Dell Arca 3.20: Sire de Grugy 4.00: Toutancarmont 4.40: Unanimite 5.15: Supasundae
Nap of the Day - Friday 27th March 2015
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 27th March 2015 5:15 Lingfield Subversive runs here with a penalty after winning last time but isn't very appealing at 11/8 with Joe Fanning deciding not to ride at Lingfield and against a field of improvers. Hills and Dales just held on to win last month after heading off too quickly in a race which hasn't worked out well. He should improve but Culloden finished just 1L behind him that day and comes here with a huge 16lb swing in the weights. Culloden clearly didn't stay the extended mile last time and the shorter trip should be more up his street off a mark of 59 which looks very generous. He's better than that and Richard Hannon and connections have booked Cam Hardie who takes off a further 3. I can't believe Hills and Dales is currently 15/8 with Culloden available at 9/1. Culloden - 1pt Win @ 9/1 Ladbrokes