clubgowi
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Posts posted by clubgowi
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Serie A: Roma - Inter
Sit back and enjoy !
Roma's ten competitive starts this season have averaged 3.3 goals with six producing four or more. In Serie A, since the start of last season they have a 16-5-1 record since the start of last season, a 73% win rate, but they have conceded in 15 (68%) and a whopping 50% of all starts have produced four or more goals . They will look to push forward against anyone, but look terribly vulnerable to any quality counter attacking team.
Inter have featured a lot in my notes this season ,they were disappointed by their 1-1 home draw with Bologna last week and rested key players for this, in their Europa League trip to Prague in midweek, where they lost 3-1 to Sparta and they have kept just a single clean sheet in eight competitive starts this season and in only 4 of 25 Serie A games. They have big offensive potential, but we have yet to really see it, but they are back under pressure for a result and that might well help them to produce one. They probably need to score twice to get a result and Mauro Icardi and Ivan Perisic have eight goals between them and Icardi has scored four in his last two road outings and Inter have the potential to score a couple.
"Sick note" Thomas Vermalen is missing again and Roma have conceded nine goals in the five league and Champions League games he has missed and the back up options are just not good enough.
"over" 3 goals 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket
Inter to score two or more goals ("over" 1.5) 2.875-3.0 general quote
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England Championship: Brentford - Wigan Athletic
Brentford are still not the finished article and will be a better team in six weeks than they are today, they still have two players getting up to speed with Championship pace who already look better than most at this level, two to come back from injury and as a group .they are only just realizing how good they can be.
I wasn't going to back them today, but odds are too big and my hands are tied, they are unbeaten at home since March, have scored nine in their last two here at Griffin Park and some of the passing in the 4-1 defeat of Reading on Tuesday , was unbelievable. But it is not a 90 minute performance at present and Wigan will get chances, but visiting top scorer Will Grigg was deemed surplus to requirements at Brentford , the hosts will know all about him and (knock loudly on wood !) very few former players have returned and done well in recent campaigns. John Swift on Tuesday was an example , he got a LOT of undeserved abuse and GP is a ground where the crowd can almost touch you and every word from the stands can be heard . Bees get key midfielder Ryan Woods back from suspension today and he will freshen up a team where competition for starting places is fierce at present.
Brentford -0.75 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket
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MLS: Seattle Sounders - Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire did finally break that dismal road record last month winning 3-0 in Montreal, their first away win in 37 attempts and more than 25 months, you might think that would have kick started a sequence, but no, they have lost their two subsequent road games by a combined 10-3 ! They sit bottom of the East, a win tonight would not change that and you suspect rebuilding for next season will be well underway and any remaining energies saved for their last two home starts, not a game 4,000km away from home, against an in form, motivated opponent.
Sounders appear to have found some form just in time , they have taken heart from 7 points in their last three starts and huge confidence from a 4-2 win in LA over Galaxy on Sunday. That took them to within three points of a playoff spot, with two games in hand on all the clubs directly above them, they host Real Salt Lake (currently 4th) on the final day of the season (October 23rd) and it is not impossible that Seattle could still snatch that 4th place and that is a huge incentive. It would give them a HOME one leg playoff first round game and the last eight hosting teams have progressed ! Fire don't concede just one, they have two clean sheets in 11 starts, but once allowing a first goal, they have always given up at least two at an average of 2.89 per game and three or more in 6 of 9 away starts.
Seattle Sounders -1.25 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket
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Champions League: Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen
We sided with the hosts for their opening group game at Wembley against Tottenham ........"Monaco are top of Ligue 1 and were certainly no less impressive than Spurs in a 4-1 away win at Lille on Saturday, they played with great pace and width, so Wembley should suit, they will be stronger today with a couple of regulars returning and arrive full of confidence. ASM upgraded in the summer and feel they are very different from the side who lost 4-1 at White Hart Lane last December in the Europa League. That was a half hearted performance from the visitors who were already on their way out of a competition they were not committed to and they were at the time still playing catch up in Ligue 1 for a Champions League place, their target for the season. Already competition battle hardened through playoff games with Villarreal where they won both legs, I favour them to take a point this evening in what could be a very entertaining contest."
They won that 2-1 and have taken both home games since, with their "blip", a 4-0 loss at rivals Nice sandwiched in between. It was key that they got back on track on Saturday after that heavy loss and this is a very different ASM to the one we have seen in recent campaigns, they are certainly more vulnerable defensively, but are on a different level at the other end of the pitch. 17 of their last 22 starts have gone "over", including 4 of 5 Champions League games and those 22 matches averaged 3.41 per game.
Bayer Leverkusen started with a 2-2 home draw with CSKA Moscow and like most German teams are used to playing an offensive style, their last seven group starts have averaged 4.14 goals and were far more open than even that suggests, they scored at Barcelona and Roma (twice) last season and can play their part in another open contest.
"over" 2.75 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket
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England Championship: Norwich - Burton
Briefly, I expect both teams to score and probably Norwich to edge home 2-1/3-2/3-1, something like that. Burton have adapted quite well to life in the Championship, have 9 points on board and only five teams have scored more goals. They are not afraid to take the game to teams and have scored in all four road games and conceded in all nine competitive starts. They are not really operating on a level Championship playing field, with a low budget and determined to stay within their means, they will need as many points as they can collect early season. They were playing non league football seven yeras ago and they have come a very long way in a short time and that almost always catches up with teams, unless they have the backing and that almost always means finances, to stay one step ahead of the game. This is a tough unrelenting league and it will be difficult for the Brewers to survive. That is for another day, for now, this is all still new and wonderful and they will enjoy their trip to Carrow Road.
I discussed Norwich and their game with Wigan in the Friday notes and how they allowed the Latics back into a game they should have run away with. The Canaries are amongst the favourites for promotion and will be there or thereabouts, but have conceded in their last three home starts and in 6 of their last 7 home starts in their Championship promotion camapign, the season before last. They can be devastating at this level when things click, but the crowd here urges them forward a little too often at times and they can lose their way in games and Albion will get opportunities, both to score @ 2.0-2.05 looks good, but easier to back is ............
"over" 2.75 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket
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England Championship: Preston - Wigan
Having opposed Preston at Brentford last Saturday (L5-0) and at Bournemouth on Tuesday ( won 3-2 in extra time), I have to take them on again today in their third start inside seven days, against a better rested/prepared local rival. Wigan have been at home for ten days and preparing for this for seven, a period through which North End will have spent 17-18 hours on the team bus. They did rotate heavily for the midweek game, but seven played some part in both, the extra time meant most had more game time than would have been viewed as ideal, both games were draining, other players made the journey to the South Coast anyway and preparation for tonight, would have been severly hampered. Of course, they will have been buoyed by the win at Bournemouth, but the events of the last week seem sure to take a toll at some stage this evening and positive thoughts can quickly disappear and memories of the late capitulation at Griffin Park come to the fore, if things do not go their way early.
No cup game for Wigan, they have made priorities clear and this season is all about re-establishing themselves in the Championship and avoiding a relegation battle. They have not made a great job of things so far and sit below Preston in the table, with just five points, but they have goals in them, only eight teams have scored more and last season's League 1 joint top scorer and former Brentford striker Will Grigg has hit the ground running again with four goals at the higher level. They have , or had been putting themselves in good positions and not taking advantage and have dropped 7 points already from winning positions, conceding four goals in the last 12 minutes. They have ended the last two games much better and played promisingly in each, two down at highflying Norwich City inside 11 minutes, they dominated much of the next 75 , pulled a goal back and were close to an equaliser time and time again, with the Canaries on the back foot and under severe pressure. A City supporter described the closing stage thus : "You could tell how the balance had swung when the added time board showed 5 minutes and a groan went up from the City faithful. "From total control we were now hanging on for dear life and McGovern again had to be alert to push a close range header away for a corner. "City struggled to clear it and a Wigan forward looked bound to score but muffed his shot at the City goal only for McGovern to spill it. "Fortunately Olsson, my MOM was alert enough to shepherd the ball away from danger. "The cheers at the final whistle were of relief more than anything else."
They then failed to make the most of several really good chances in a 0-0 draw with Fulham, but there were positives to take from both performances.
The Latics should be fresher of the two today and the free midweek will have given Gary Caldwell more time to work on what he knows has been their shortcomings, he told the club website...........
“I think we are always learning; last year right throughout the season we learned and we improved and got better as the season went on. This year, we have started from a better platform than the one we had the previous season and I think we are improving all of the time. "It is now about turning that into results and that is the most important thing. “Apart from Sheffield Wednesday, I don’t think we have been outplayed in any game, but for a little bit of luck or better concentration defensively, I have no doubt we would have got more points on the board.“We have worked a lot on trying to stop goals because we believe we are a threat going forwards to score goals. "The main focus in training has been on defending but not just from defence, but as a whole team."I thought on Saturday we were excellent against a very good football team and we stopped them doing what they wanted to do by pressing high up the pitch and the forward and midfield players really putting in a high-effort defensive performance in."
I doubt Preston will have been too pleased to see Oliver Langford as referee, they are 0-1-4 in games when he has been in charge and have not scored a single goal in the last four. 2X game for me.
Wigan Athletic level ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket
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England League Cup: AFC Bournemouth - Preston North End
I got a very close up look at Preston North End on Saturday, I have to be honest and say that they did not deserve to lose 5-0 to the mighty, mighty Bees, but overall, they played just about where I ranked them ahead of the game, which is definitely below last season's 11th place finish . They have some very big clubs (by Championship standards) below and immediately above them in the table, they could quickly get into real trouble and this is not a league in which it is easy to play catch up, games being ultra competitive, with no easy fixtures and they have a vital "bottom six" clash with local rivals Wigan Athletic (stadiums are just 30 minutes apart) on FRIDAY night and that surely has to take priority.
So, PNE played at Griffin Park on Saturday, where they were eventually run ragged, now make an even longer trip down to the South Coast on Tuesday on face a Premier League side and play a game in front of the television cameras that they dare not lose in three days time !
I spoke about the pressure that Simon Grayson was under last week, but he knows that it has to be all about the league and he made 11 changes for the last EFL cup tie and is very likely to go down a similar route this evening. His team started both halves strongly on Saturday and if they had equalised at 0-1 (huge save from Bentley in the Brentford goal, it could have been a different story..... see, I can be unbiased !) but collapsed once the second goal was conceded and the Bees ran riot.
I assume Bournemouth will rotate too, but they have a very strong squad and can field two largely similar first teams IMO. Easy home win !
Bournemouth -1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket
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France Ligue2: Bourg - Le Havre
Bourg-en-Bresse are back to their free and easy ways, play a very open style, are comfortable on the ball when in possession, quite pleasing on the eye and look vulnerable when defending, in other words, they are fun to watch ! Last season their games produced an average 2.79 goals and only relegated Creteil conceded more. They met a pair of teams with a defend first, ask questions later approach in their two opening games and it took a while to return to normal service, but their last five starts have seen 20 goals with both scoring in each and any time they face a team who will not sit back, we should see goals and plenty of them. The two league meetings with Le Havre last season produced nine goals with eight for HAC and it is hard to see the visitors coming with just a point in mind. They have lost their way after a great start to their season and they are now five league and cup games without a win, through which they have conceded 10 goals in three home starts (!) and we are talking about the pre season promotion favourites here.
There is no doubt that Le Havre are the stronger squad, but BEBP probably have a little more confidence right now and do play with a bit of a swagger, both to score........1-3 feels about right, but best value has to be ........
over 2.5 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket
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- StevieDay1983 and immortal--
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Champions League: Manchester City - Borussia Monchengladbach
Few coaches in this competition have as much Champions League experience as Pep Guardiola, in seven years as head coach, he is a perfect seven time semi finalist and two time winner. City made the semis last season and anything less this time round is likely to be seen as failure. Guardiola is not afraid to make the big decisions and Yaya Toure and Joe Hart were quickly made aware that their time had passed, John Stones, Leroy Sane, Gabriel Jesus, Ilkay Gundogan, Claudio Brava and Nolito were signed for a collective 200m € and the club have had a major make over. However, his biggest influence has been on the training pitch, where the work is said to have been on another level and it is easy to see that on the pitch, we are only four games in, but at times and in each, although perhaps not yet for 90 minutes, they have played football the like of which we have not seen before in the Premier League. It might seem very early to say that, but you only had to watch the opening 45 minutes of the Manchester derby on Saturday, through which they totally outclassed United, to realise how good they are, or rather, can be and this is only just the very beginning. The effect he has had on Raheem Sterling and John Stones is already apparent and tonight they will have a hungry and in form Sergio Aguero, who is serving a domestic ban, back in the line up.
BMG are two weeks behind in terms of real match fitness, a light year away with the respective squads and whilst they will have learned plenty from a group stage appearance, they will not take much confidence from the two games with City last season, both of which they lost , conceding six goals and the Manchester side look on a higher plane right now. BMG are coming off a 3-1 defeat at newly promoted Freiburg at the weekend, they went "full strength" there, with 10 of the 11 starters who faced Leverkusen on opening day and started well enough, led at the break, but fell apart late with some shambolic defending and this has the potential to get ugly tonight.
Manchester City -1.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket
4.0 for City to score four or more, something they did here at the Etihad in this fixture last season feels too big, given the offensive firepower of the hosts and how qucikly BMG crumbled on Saturday
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- four-leaf and StevieDay1983
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Serie A: AC Milan - Udinese
Milan won 3-2 their last game on home ground, should have been 3-1-/4-1, but could easily have ended 3-3 with Torino missing a late penalty, they then lost 4-2 at Napoli and giving up six goals and a mised penalty is hardly the dream defensive start and whilst they have had 15 days to work on solutions, they clearly need it. Suspensions today to Mbaye Niang and Juraj Kucka are hardly ideal and combined with the injury to Andrea Bertolacci and knocks to others, that leaves them very shorthanded in the middle of the park. Upfront, Niang has been very influential since breaking into the team with six goals and six assists in 18 starts and Milan won just two from 11 when he picked up an injury and was sidelined at the end of last season.
Udinese have avoided defeat in half of their last ten league and cup visits to the San Siro to play Milan and that alone suggest value in the quote for the visitors, they will travel a little nervously after an opening day mauling at Roma, but have steadied the ship with three points and a cleansheet at home to Empoli and can take a point and a goal or two today (3.75 to score 2+ feels big).
Udinese +0.75 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket
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PGA Tour: 2016 FedEx Cup Playoffs: BMW Championship
You should all know the format by now, top 30 in the FedEx standings come Sunday evening, will advance to the Tour Championship in two weeks time.
The BMW Championship returns to Crooked Stick GC, Carmel, Indiana for the first time since 2012, it is a long course, which will play longer because of heavy rain and the greens will be very receptive and only someone hitting the ball a long way is likely to win. I think that will be Rory McIlroy, it is not a very original choice, but there are doubts about all the other big name players IMO and the Ulsterman showed he is in terrific form, not just on Monday, but over the last three days at the Deutsche Bank, shooting 67-66-65 to win the tournament going away .
Rory won here in that last running, posting a -20 finish to beat Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood by two, he had finished 24th at the Barclays and won at TPC Boston in build up, this year he was 31st and 1st, it is another Ryder Cup year like 2012 and the similarities are remarkable.
Key for us is that when Rory wins, he doesn't then just disappear off the leaderboard for several months like most golfers, far from it and once he finds his form, he likes to milk it ! Rory posted three wins in four starts in 2012, 3 in 3 in 2014 and he won twice in three outings last year, it just seems inconceivable he will not feature late here on Sunday, in a reduced field, in form and on a course where he is a proven winner and which plays to his strengths.
McIlroy ranked high in all main categories last week, but key was finishing 7th in "strokes gained putting", he has struggled with the flat stick little all year and was ranked #130 coming into the event, but it all came together with an average improvement of six strokes over four rounds and as Rory said after winning on Monday "things can fall into place very quickly." In terms of number of birdies, he had his 5th best week ever and the golf he played on Sunday was just on another level to anyone else and 5.6 strokes better than the "field" and in poor conditions, that was incredibly impressive.
Rory McIlroy to win outright 6.0- 6.50 general quote
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US Open Tennis: Agnieszka Radwanska - Ana Konjuh
Ana Konjuh bacame the youngest player in almost a decade to win a main tour event last year, she was a great junior, winning both the Australian and US Opens, that title here in New York was hard earned and she had to beat Ostapenko, Bellis and Chirico , three players who have made a huge impact in the seniors recently, just to make the semis. She has already faced today's opponent, the world number 4, Agnieszka Radwanska, at Wimbledon in the summer, losing 9-7 in the 3rd, even that scoreline doesn't quite tell the full story, Konjuh would have won had she not picked up an injury during the match and even then had match points, including one which hit the net and hung in the air for (seemingly) seconds before deciding to drop on the "wrong" side for the young Croatian.
We have not seen much of her since, but she won four matches in New Haven in build up and has looked good here and has been serving big, pretty much almost on a par with Naomi Broady who had Radwanska in trouble early in their second round match up, winning 30 of 40 points on first serve despite losing the second set 6-3. I have nothing but admiration for Radwanska who is the most intelligent of players and has an incredible defence and always plays to her strengths, but she is never going to blast anyone off court and I think there will be a few cheap points for Konjuh, who will mix things up and come to the net and she is not without a chance if she just does a little better with her second serve than she did at the All England Club. Agnie in three again would not surprise, but this total line could easily be covered in two and has to be the way to go.
over 19.5 games 1.943 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro
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- four-leaf, nickel1 and CzechPunter
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England League 2: Luton - Wycombe
I was surprised that Luton Town managed to keep hold of all their promising youngsters in the transfer window, that shows great ambition , infact, they strengthened with the good looking additions of winger Alex Gilliead (Newcastle United) and left-back Jack Senior (Huddersfield Town), Gilliead played a full season at L2 last season and should hit the ground running, adding goals and assists. The Hatters now look a very strong squad and anything less than a serious promotion push is going to be viewed as failure. They are a big club at this level and I spoke about that ahead of a trip to Dagenham last season under old boss John Still .........
"Town are a very big club in League 2 terms and simply have to be, at the very least, challenging for promotion, a run of four games without a win ( five in all competitions) has left them down in 15th place and whilst that is "only" six points adrift of the play off spots, this feels very much like draw a line in the sand time and a match the Hatters have to find a way to win.
In comparison, Daggers are tiny, operate on small crowds and a similar sized budget and the fact that they have been a Football League club for nine years and even enjoyed one single season in League 1 is almost solely down to one man and that is Luton boss John Still, who vitually single handedly overhauled the club from top to bottom, saved them from relegation out of the Conference, took them into the FL and then even L1 and did so on a playing budget most managers would have looked at and thought it was the expenses for the ball boys and tea ladies ! Daggers have always stayed within budget, which meant even by Conference standards it is small and they have to sell to even stick to that and what Still did at the club was simply amazing. He knows everyone at Dagenham and I am talking about everyone, including probably half the supporters by name, actually Still knows almost everyove in football, but his heart, or at least a large part of it remains in this corner of East London and speaking about returning this week, it has been almost too painful and he said he just wants to go, play and leave as soon as possible. I guess it is like seeing an old girlfriend you still have feelings for .
It is not his first return, Town took four points from the h2h meetings last year, drawing 0-0 here, where they played an hour with ten men following a hotly disputed sending off and were later denied what looked a stonewall penalty, that and Town's need for all three points will ensure that there is not too much sympathy, at least on the pitch and the visiting supporters who are going to form at least 50% (1,200 advance tickets sold) of the crowd, can make the trip home happy. Team news is not overly important, the Town squad is on another level, but it is worth noting that Craig Mackail-Smith has busted a gut to get fit for this, he was more or less the first signing that Still made at Dagenham, joining from what was basically 8th tier football (!), he went on to make two big money moves and a good living from football and turned down the offer of League 1 football from at least two clubs to play for his former boss once more. CMS is desperate to play one more time at tiny Victoria Road.
Town have been getting into good positions, but not seeing out games well, they have led in two of the last three and were level entering injury time in the other and yet only took one point from those games and that has to stop, a free midweek and the extra day to prepare solely for this will have helped after six games inside 21 days previously and I feel we will see a very focused performance from the visitors today."
Town won that 2-0 ,but Still didn't see the season out and is now back at Daggers, his replacement Nathan Jones had the second half of 15-16 to sort things out and has had plenty of time to build, he has two years left on his contract, but probably knows it has to be this season he makes his mark and he has been given big support by the board.
Wycombe are struggling financially and have not been done andy favours by a massive injury crisis, despite winning in the EPL Trophy in midweek, the squad named highlighted their issues, they could not fill the bench, it included two players they dare not risk and their 43 yo head coach Gareth Ainsworth, who was one of two substituions made.They have around a third of their squad unavailable and they will struggle to take anything from this fixture.
Luton Town -0.5 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket
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Serie A: Sassuolo - Pescara
Sassuolo have been playing Europa League games and were in Serbia on Thursday for their second leg with Crvena Zvezda,which they drew 1-1, they could largely go through the motions there having won the home tie 3-0.
It will definitely not be advantage later in the campaign, but having played extra competitive games at this stage of the season, gives the hosts a significant edge IMO and after five very competitive fixture, Sassuolo will be very close to full fitness and looking to build on last week's opening day win at Palermo in front of their own supporters. Newly promoted Pescara are three games behind and would also have returned to pre season a litlle later, or with a shortened break, after their playoff win was not settled until June 9th, 25 days after Serie A ended. The visitors will be fairly pleased with a Matchday 1 draw (2-2) with Napoli, they started strongly there against a very passive opponent and led by two at the break, but tired/got sloppy afterwards and the visitors awoke from their slumber. At the end, Pescara were clinging on for dear life and they will have to save more energy for the second half exchanges today. Pescara have been quite adventurous in the transfer window, but are still getting some of those additions up to speed and today, I feel the hosts will be a little too far ahead in terms of prepardness and fitness levels and they will be very hungry for the points with a trip to Juventus immediately after the international break.
Sassuolo -1 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket
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La Liga: Espanyol - Malaga
Malaga are in the Ajaccio mode and rarely cut loose on the road, however, Juande Ramos is back in charge and got them playing some attractive football in pre season, when they scored a lot of goals, they struggled to break down an Osasuna side who came with only a point in mind last week and had to settle for 1-1, but the overall performance certainly offered promise and I do expect to see a more adventurous approach from them this season. That will go double and treble for Espanyol who opened with a 6-4 loss (!) at Sevilla, tough to score four on the road and not get a point, but I doubt they will abandon their attacking principles and will instead take heart from their offensive performance. The signings of Leo Baptistao, Pablo Piatti, José Manuel Jurado and José Antonio Reyes hardly hinted at a team who were going to sit back in any game, they are looking to strengthen defensively before the window closes, but right now look full of goals at one end and leaky at the other, I suspect they will be fun to watch all season and odds for this to provide some of that entertainment look on the big side.
The first round of games saw 40 goals , there were only 32 on opening day in the previous two seasons combined, the increased and more equal distribution of television money in Spain has meant increased pressure on teams to entertain and I feel that last week might not just be a blip, but an ongoing trend. There could mean value for us in early season if that is the case and before the oddsmakers fully catch up.
over 2.5 goals 2.38 asian line/Sportmarket
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UEFA Champions League: Hapoel Beer Sheva - Celtic FC
Celtic won the first leg 5-2 and looked out of sight at one stage at 3-0 early in that tie and on another night could have won by five, however and equally, they could have crumbled at 3-2 and again when the Israeli side were denied a penalty later in the game. We have seen them do so before and Brendan Rodgers, the head coach of the Scottish champions, said yesterday that those involved in last season's surrender to Malmo at this stage of the competition will not be unnerved by that disappointment. Adding:"I think a lot has been made of what's happened in the past and I've always said you have to embrace failure." He spent half the interview talking about this and for me,the loss in Sweden, and some other big collapses in the Champions League in recent campaigns, are clearly playing on his mind.
I think that this will be a very different game, Celtic were very fortunate not to lose at Astana, where they fought a rearguard action for most of the 90 minutes and they have won just 9 of 62 , including 2 of their last 14, away starts in Europe and have kept just two clean sheets in the last 20 ( in Azerbaijan and Iceland).Hapoel Beer Sheva have great confidence from their first domestic title in 40 years last season and head coach Barak Bakhar feels there is still life in this and rested key players for tonight in their league opener on Saturday.
HBS are a special team and have very much a them against us mentality domestically, Beersheba being in the "wilderness " of the South and their title win last season was described as "doing a Leicester City", which is a phrase we are going to hear far too much of ! Celtic can lose by 2 and still progress and I think they will look to keep this tight, which they are ill equipped and unused to doing and I expect the host to edge this narrowly and both teams to celebrate come the end of 90 minutes. The visitors also conceded two goals quickly from three up against St Johnstone at the weekend and sitting on a lead is not their forte.
Hapoel Beer Sheva -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket
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J League: Gamba Osaka - Vissel Kobe
Gamba posted a fine 2-0 win at Jubilo Iwata last week, the breakthrough and then second goal took a while to come, but they were well on top and could have won by at least two more goals and it feels like someone is in for a bit of a hiding soon.
My notes on last week's game can be read in full below the "good luck", Gamba have got a little swagger back and have been talking all week about their Stage 2 title "charge", they trail leaders Urawa by five points, which is very do-able with the pair due to meet on Matchday 14, but there can be no let up now. Vissel Kobe might argue that they are still in with a slim chance too , being four behind Gamba , but that is a little far fetched and despite me talking a lot about Kobe as a potential challenger for honours in the future, that is more likely to be in the cup(s) or next season in league terms and they need to pick up a little on the road. They will not lack for motivation in the Kansai derby, but Gamba have won 4 of five meetings in Osaka and the last three wins have all been by 2+ goals.
Kobe are a very offensive minded team and are a team full of goals on a going day, which is good for us, as they are unlikely to come and park the bus and they do like, so do Gamba for that matter, to make things difficult for themselves and Vissel have conceded first in three of their last four and conceded six without reply in their last 213 minutes on the road. They arrive without suspended central defender Masahiko Inoha and they will miss him with Gamba starting to fire.
Gamba -0.5 ball 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket
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Spain Super Cup: Sevilla - Barcelona
We discussed Sevilla in midweek ahead of their UEFA Super Cup match up with Real Madrid, where they led 2-1, but lost 3-2 in extra time. That came at a cost and the entire three man backline of Timothee Kolodziejczak ,Daniel Carrico and Nicolas Pareja miss out through a combination of injury and suspension. There was already a lot of space in behind that trio at times in midweek and Real frequently broke the offside trap and Sevilla will be pushing forward a lot tonight in the first real home debut for the new coach. Barce have been very hit and miss in pre season and are only slowly re-introducing their star names into the squad after a busy summer, but Messi and Suarez definitely play tonight and the one constant in pre season has been goals and their four high profile warm up games have all produced at least four and Leicester City, Liverpool and Sampdoria all scored two or more against the Catalan giants. The 2.80-3.0 for Sevilla to score two or more goals (over 1.5) feels big and is very tempting, but I will opt for the easier to back ...........
Sevilla: Sergio Rico, José Antonio, Mariano, Mercado, Rami, Diego González, Escudero, Kranevitter, Nzonzi, Iborra, Sarabia, Kiyotake, Konoplyanka, Vitolo, Ganso, Correa, Franco Vázquez, Ben Yedder , Vietto.
Barcelona: Bravo, Masip, Piqué, Rakitic, Sergio, Denis, Arda, Iniesta, Suárez, Messi, Mascherano, Munir, Digne, Sergi Roberto, André Gomes, Aleix Vidal, Umtiti , Mathieu.
over 3.25 goals 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket
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France Ligue2: Clermont Foot - Sochaux
Clermont got back to goalscoring ways in midweek, scoring twice against Amiens in the cup after drawing blank in consecutive Ligue 2 games, ahead of the first a 2-0 loss at Valenciennes, I spoke about the open nature of their matches over the last 12 months ......
"Clermont were fun to watch last season, their fixtures produced a Ligue 2 high 109 goals and away starts averaged 2.95 per game. They finished 7th, seven points shy of a promotion spot, were in the mix most of the campaign and I doubt we will see too much difference in their approach, the six main "defensive" starters remain, are all in the squad and seem likely to start this evening, which kind of bears that out. They have lost two big offensive threats in top scorer Famara Diedhiou and Adrien Hunou, but winger Remy Dugimont had seven goals and three assists after the end of November and Corinne Diacre , who is in her third season in charge, believes in attacking football and has added a number of young strikers to the squad and to be honest, they have looked very similar to the Clermont of old in pre season, conceding and scoring freely."
They went into their shell a little at home to Red Star to steady the ship, but beat Amiens 2-1 even without Remy Dugimont (see above) who returns, with goals from Salze and Ajorque and I expect them to play their usual style today. They will be without midfielder Thomas Guerbert who cannot play under the terms of his transfer from Sochaux.
Sochaux have played one road game, a 3-1 win at Troyes and my notes on that are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. They have struggled for goals in two home games, when teams went to Sochaux looking to sit back and frustrate, they meet a team with a similar approach to Troyes today and one who will look for three points having only taken one from two starts and facing a tough looking trip to Auxerre up next. Sochaux will freshen up with the return of Werner, Teikeu, Bérenguer, Ramaré and Andriatsima , who all sat out the cup game in midweek and all four will start, I favour Sochaux, but feel this time there is better value with ..............
over 2.25 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket
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UEFA Super Cup: Real Madrid VS Sevilla
Sevilla are now Super Cup regulars and are appearing in this European football season "opener" for the 5th time in the last 11 seasons. The previous four have produced 17 goals, including a 4-4 draw with Barcelona in 90 minutes last year, Sevilla have scored eight of those goals and are certainly not afraid to take the game the Champions League winner. La Liga games between Real and Los Rojiblancos offer even more promise of goals, with the last ten h2h meetings producing 47 goals with five going "over" the 4.5 goal line. The two most recent (last season) saw four goals in the capital and five in Seville and draws are incredibly rare, none in the last 20, 15 wins for Real, 5 for Sevilla.
There is no Cristiano Ronaldo , Gareth Bale, Pepe or Toni Kroos in the Real squad (see below) , but Real have wins and goals in their absence in pre season with victories over Bayern Munich and Chelsea and three goals inside the opening 38 minutes in the latter and there are plenty of players looking to impress and showcase their talents in the absence of the two big offensive stars. Sevilla are much changed since winning the Europa League , head coach Unai Emery has moved on to PSG and been replaced by Copa America winner Jorge Sampaoli , top scorer Kévin Gameiro has joined Atletico Madrid , Éver Banega has moved to Inter and Grzegorz Krychowiak has joined Emery in Paris. That is a lot of talent to lose, but Sevilla have been here before and are usually in a rebuilding process of some sort. They have spent some 60€m on new players and got a couple more on loan from Atletico as part of the Gameiro deal, one of whom, Luciano Vietto looked very lively in a friendly with Granada last week, that was Sevilla's sixth win in six warm up games and they looked good, really pressing hard and from the front, looking well ahead in terms of preparation and they played their first friendly, eleven days before Real. Sampaoli says his team needs time and that is true of course, but they look set to do themselves justice and give Real a very close game, the Argentine coach spoke about wanting to win this game, but about about it having to be in "the right way" and not at any cost and regardless of who is on the pitch, it is easy to see this game getting very stretched at times and the new head coach added: 'I want my team to focus more on the goal in front of them than the one behind them "
When Sevilla were pressing hard from the front against Granada they did get caught out once or twice and they will be vulnerable on the break. So it is easy to see goals, but Real are weakened today, their 20 man squad contains three keepers and four of the goals in warm up came from full backs, several of the 17 outfield players are said to be well short of up to 90 minutes currently and whilst we seem sure to see goals, I favour Sevilla with a new coach to impress and he the media, I feel they are a week or so ahead of Real and that the best value is with the "underdog".
Sevilla +0.25 at 2.33 asian line /Sportmarket
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France Ligue 2: Le Havre - Nimes
I previewed Nimes home game with Laval last weekend .............
"I wrote a lengthy preview of Nimes' trip to then leaders Nancy, who went on to win Ligue 2 by four points, back in late January, in that I spoke about Nimes great goalscoring form and how they had made a habit of running into form through the second half of recent campaigns. They collected 34 points from 18 starts from the end of November, which is more or less top 3 shape for half a season , add in their 8 point deduction and they would have finished 9th and given all that the players had to deal with in early season ( confidence was shot from how the previous campaign ended and they took until October 23rd to get to +1 point !), that was a fantastic achievement. They got great support through this improved run, fans bought into the great escape/ them against us attitude and five figure crowds (big numbers for them and L2) were turning up and really getting behind the team. What could have been a disaster, actually turned into a campaign full of promise and hope for the future.
Head coach Bernard Blaquart has been busy over the summer and looks to have upgraded the backline and the addition of two experienced full backs in Gael Angoula and Zie Diabate looks good business. Up front, the signing of Rachid Alioui is promising, he was top scorer for Laval last season, which. additionally weakens the visitors, the striker hit the ground running this time last year, with five goals and two assists in the first 11 games and he was playing for a team who do not score many (just 12 in total through that sequence).
Laval just do not win enough games and are too timid at times, drawing 50% of all games in the last two seasons, averaging exactly one goal per game (less last season) and too often settling for one point, when, with a little more enterprise, three could have been there for the taking. In addition to Alioui, they have also lost playmaker playmaker Romain Habran and Anthony Goncalves, their two top assist makers, that is a lot of goal threat from a team who do not pose much ! The solid defence has been split up with two players leaving and three of those remaining are getting pretty long in the tooth now ( in their 33rd-38th years) and this could be a tough season for the visitors.
Nimes took a lot of confidence from a 1-0 pre season loss to Marseille, where they attracted a big crowd and dominated much of the play and were denined by the woodwork and some late ditch callenges/saves, they have low price admission deals to get as many people into the stadium tonight as possible and are targeting a fast start this time round and to continue where they left off last season. They have been away at a training centre all week to prepare for today and "bond" and I favour them to start with a win."
Like many games last weekend that was a largely uninspiring affair, but Nimes were the better side and not helped by a poor playing surface , or referee Florent Batta ,who gave up 105 yellow and five reds in 21 Ligue 2 games last season and started as he means to go on in his one man crusade to ruin second tier football, by producing 10 yellow and two red here, the Laval dismissal came late in injury time, Nimes played 40 minutes a man short and probably saw a draw as respectable at that stage. I will be doing my best to avoid any games where Batta is in charge in future. I have spoken many times previously about Nimes being very offensive minded, especially when facing an opponent with a similar mindset and I expect, Le Havre, who are amongst the title favourites and who were one of those teams (see above) to open with a win last week, to be all out guns blazing for three points today. The two teams played out a pair of wide open encounters last season, which both produced four goals and something along the same lines is expected today.
HAC came up a goal short of promotion last season and that, allied to just two automatic promotion spots, should ensure they will always be looking for maximum points. Nimes are without suspended left back (but has now been converted to left sided central defender) Fethi Harek, the 11 games he has missed in the last 12 months have averaged 2.91 goals. His absence will have got the attention of Le Havre new signing Algerian winger Zinedine Ferhat, who could go down the same route as HAC's last "name" Algerian signing Rihad Mahrez, Ferhat has every trick in the book and then some and there will be plenty of entertainment in watching him this season.
over 2.25 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket
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Champions League: Dundalk - BATE Borisov (0-1 first leg)
We have discussed BATE many times previously in Champions League qualification and they are probably the most experienced of all the non "elite" teams and have made the group stage of the competition five times since 2008-09, including the last two and in four of the last five seasons. They know how to work their way through these games and having won their domestic league for ten straight years and often easily, their whole season is usually planned and built around these games. They also have the advantage over most that, come early August, they are battle hardened and halfway through their league and at what should be peak fitness levels, they are currently heading for an 11th title and are 10 points clear after 13 rounds. This will not be a step into the unknown for them, last season they saw off Dundalk in Q2, winning 2-1 at home before drawing 0-0 in Ireland, now they arrive with another single goal lead, albeit this time with a clean sheet, to play in the Tallaght Stadium, the home of Shamrock Rovers, where this match will be held.
Dundalk are without the injured Brian Gartland and captain Stephen O’Donnell and midfielder Ronan Finn are doubtful and will face late tests. The hosts look on course for a third straight Premier Division title, but are novices at this level and were comprehensively outplayed in Borisov, despite holding out for 70 minutes. However, BATE barely do too much above the minimum and have drawn four of five qualification games after winning the home leg, they will be happy with 0-0 and if they score, will sit back for sure and that will give Dundalk a chance to equalise, maybe even edge to a win, as they would need three to progress, but a repeat of last year's 0-0 feels the most likely scoreline. Dundalk boss Stephen Kenny was in charge of Bohemians when they overturned a 1-0 first leg loss to beat BATE in 2003 and whilst that was a very long time ago and the Belarus giants are a completely different club nowadays, that will give him some belief and he will be trying to transmit that to his players, who are much improved in the last two years. Despite thir incredible achievements ,BATE have played 17 European away games without a win and although they have played a lot of big clubs in that sequence, there are more than a handful against minnows and as already outlined, they rarely do more than they need.
Dundalk +0.25 ball 2.44 asian line/Sportmarket or, +0.5 2.03 as an alternative
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Ligue 2: Valenciennes - Clermont
We had very few goals on opening day last season and also no home wins, that was a little odd of course, but the previous two campaigns had produced an average of 2.7 goals, so I will see the start of 15-16 as simply a blip. Clermont were fun to watch last season, they produced a Ligue 2 high 109 goals and away starts averaged 2.95 per game. They finished 7th, seven points shy of a promotion spot, were in the mix most of the campaign and I doubt we will see too much difference in their approach, the six main "defensive" starters remain, are all in the squad and seem likely to start this evening, which kind of bears that out. They have lost two big offensive threats in top scorer Famara Diedhiou and Adrien Hunou, but winger Remy Dugimont had seven goals and three assists after the end of November and Corinne Diacre , who is in her third season in charge, believes in attacking football and has added a number of young strikers to the squad and to be honest, they have looked very similar to the Clermont of old in pre season, conceding and scoring freely.
Valenciennes were wildly unpredictable last season, as highlighted by a 5-1 win at high flying Red Star being followed by a 3-1 home defeat. They earned 24 of 44 points on the road and with a home record of 3-11-5 , it is clear where their issues lie, they lost 2-1 and 3-1 to Clermont (league and cup), winger Wesley Jobello scored twice in the latter and given that Diacre opted to leave him out of squad which travelled, she must be reasonably confident about her team's offensive options. Gambling and winning half of those home darws would have taken Valenciennes into the top 8 (they were 12th) and that is the aim this season (to take a few more chances) and they have named an offensive looking group for this evening, with little defensive cover (18 yo Kyle Duncan has only ever played three games for the B team).
Valenciennes: Kocik, Perquis - Duncan, Kantari, Nery, Nestor, Niakhaté - Azbague, Dabo, Diarra, Enza-Yamissi, Fulgini, Roudet, Tameze - Da Costa, Faustin, Ndao.
Clermont: Jeannin, Caillard ; Avinel, Djellabi, Fontaine, Rivieyran, Salze ; Busin, Ekobo, Espinosa, Guerbert, Lopy, Pereira-Lage ; Ajorque, Dugimont, Thiam.
I expect both to score and each to press for a winner, so it has to be ......
over 2.25 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket
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Club Friendly: MK Dons - Everton
New head coach Ronald Koeman will be very keen to get the supporters on his side, he has won his first two pre season games by a combined 4-0 and well over 2, 000 Evertonians travelled to watch the three goal win at Barnsley at the weekend and will be at Stadium MK in good numbers again this evening. They are a little restless at present as, whilst there has been plenty of talk about big name signings, none have yet to put pen to paper and the promised £100m + transfer kitty from billionaire owner Farhad Moshiri , is still earning interest in his bank account ! In that linked preview, I spoke about how much better the Toffees were on the road last year and I doubt too much will change in that regard until the squad does, they will play to their strengths and Koeman will want to build momentum and he won his first five friendly starts, all on the road after taking charge at Southampton and by an aggregate 15-1. He seems sure to go with a strongish line up today and Ross Barkley, Seamus Coleman, Aiden McGeady and Tom Cleverly, will surely see more game time after just 30-45 minutes off the bench at Oakwell.
Dons were a very poor championship team last season and rightly got relegated after just one season in the top flight, last August, and after they had just scored four on the road at Rotherham, I spoke about what I saw as a major weakness in the squad .....
"Newly promoted Dons scored four at Rotherham on opening day, but I have my doubts about them at present in terms of goals, they lost 20 goal top scorer Will Grigg and hugely influential 16 goal Dele Alli in the summer and with them, a lot of their offensive threat. I just do not see where the ten goal, let alone 15-20 goal Championship level striker is in this squad, maybe they will sign one, but IMO, he is not on the books right now. They play nice football and are comfortable on the ball, but goals will be hard to come , the four against the Millers papered over the cracks, just one in three starts against Preston, Reading and Bolton who are not the best teams they will face this season by any stretch of the imagination, give a better indication of the problems they face. At the other end of the pitch, David Martin has so far made the most saves in the Championship and and is keeping his team in games, but that can only go on so long."
They only scored 35 in 45 starts after that and ended as the lowest goal scorers in the Championship, have they adreesed that problem/issue ? No, have they strengthened in any department ? Again, the answer is in the negative, they are preparing for lower level football, but they look significantly weaker to my eyes and putting nine goals past a 5th-6th tier Irish team in early pre season hasn't changed anything and they were given the run around at times by a very average Conference team on Saturday, despite fielding a "strong" team. Their squad looks thin to me, several of the senior players are injured and I doubt will be risked and any team that Everton field should be up to winning this with a degree of comfort. Dons like to play out from the back, Everton will press high far more under Koeman and this looks a decent match up for the Premier League team.
Everton -1.25 ball 1.95 asian line/Sportmarket
Brazil Serie A > Oct 5th - 9th
in Brazilian Football Predictions
Posted
Brazil Serie A: Atletico Paranaense - Chapecoense
Atletico are 6th, six points behind Santos in fourth place, but with 4th and 5th meeting ( see above) they will close up on one or both with all three points this evening and given that they are 11-2-1 at home, where they have conceded only five goals and with 54% +home wins in the league, it is difficult not to see them as value to do so at close to even money ! They actually have very good fixtures remaining and their next eight starts come against teams with an average league placing of 12.62.
Chapecoense have performed much better on the road than we have come to expect from them in recent campaigns, but such is the way of these things, that their usually very solid home form has suffered ! However, their are safe(ish) in mid table, have a Copa Sudamerican two legged semi final this month and I would expect them to be selective about which matches they really focus on from here on in, basically the Copa and home games, where they owe supporters a performance or two.
Atletico are a fantastic 7-0-0 at home when level at half time and waiting for the break is definitely an option, but I will officially go with...........
Atletico Paranaense -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket
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