four-leaf

No problem, too many matches to sift through today, not going crazy though.
Back Quentin Halys to beat Egor Gerasimov at 1.50 with Bet365
Too many matches to choose from in the US Open quallies, but only this one caught my eye in all honesty. Why? Well, although Halys has been in a fairly dreadful form recently, I still can't but fancy his chances against Gerasimov, who hasn't played a competitive match since the French Open, where he apparently suffered an injury. He wasn't having an excellent season before that either and coming back from an injury is always tough, so I'm happy to chance the Frenchman at 1.50 here.

Back Karolina Pliskova (+4.5) to beat Angelique Kerber at 1.67 with Paddy Power
These two have met on six occasions and Pliskova has covered the 4.5 games line on five of them, with the very first meeting - back in 2011 - being the only exceptions. She's been playing really well so far in Cincinnati and she hasn't played in Rio, so she should be fresh and ready to go, while Kerber has to face two obstacles here - not only will there be a lot of pressure, as she can gain the #1 spot with a win here, but she also might be a bit tired after losing in Rio and then playing quite a few matches here. The German is still the favourite, but I fancy Pliskova to cover the handicap.

Karolina Pliskova to beat Garbiñe Muguruza for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with bet365
Karolina has beaten Garbiñe on hard twice last season in Dubai and Indian Wells and lost once on clay in Roland Garros, Garbiñes best surface is by far clay and hard seems as her worst since she is constantly unable to get any better results on it except last season when she won Beijing. However, she went out to Monica Puig in the olympics in straight sets 6-1 6-1, horrible and that was on hard. I have no doubts that Karolina who's been serving well this week can serve her way to her third big final here.

Karolina Pliskova to beat Garbiñe Muguruza for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with bet365
Karolina has beaten Garbiñe on hard twice last season in Dubai and Indian Wells and lost once on clay in Roland Garros, Garbiñes best surface is by far clay and hard seems as her worst since she is constantly unable to get any better results on it except last season when she won Beijing. However, she went out to Monica Puig in the olympics in straight sets 6-1 6-1, horrible and that was on hard. I have no doubts that Karolina who's been serving well this week can serve her way to her third big final here.

Back Marin Cilic to beat Borna Coric at 1.44 with Skybet
Decent enough price for Cilic to take this outright in my opinion, Coric a bit over-rated just because he's won against Rafa. A great result, but Nadal just ran out of energy in that one, so don't take it too seriously. Cilic, on the other hand, had to play and win a really competitive match against Berdych, so he's in a good form at the moment. When the two met last year, Cilic won 6-1 6-2 - it's probably going to be tighter this time around, but I wouldn't classify the youngster's chances as solid.

Back Taro Daniel to beat Gianluigi Quinzi at 1.40 with Bet365
Daniel for me as the pick for Saturday, as he should be able to take advantage of the free day to recover and get himself ready for the Quinzi challenge. Quinzi has already upset Leonardo Mayer and Elias Ymer here, but, from what I've seen, it's been more about those players performing poorly and choking at crucial points than about him playing so well. In any case, Daniel is better than both those players at the moment and he should have no acclimatization issues after so many days, so he should get the job done without much fuss imo

Daria Gavrilova to beat Elina Svitolina for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with bet365
Gavrilova has beaten Svitolina twice by 2-0 in sets on hard court in the Hopman Cup at the beginning of the year and on clay in Madrid with and last year Svitolina won by 2-1 and 6- 4 in the decider so then it was even also and now another match between the two.
Svitolina is not as good as the results against Serena at the Olympics says. Serena had one of her poorer days only. It wasn't Svitolina who played the tennis of her life. Match after she was outclassed by Petra Kvitova to come down to earth. Now maybe she did not play for very long in Rio so it is not likely to affect very much but to go to Cincinnati and meet Gavrilova who played just fine yesterday does not bode well. Gavrilova had not a single break point against her during the game against Carolina Garcia. Maybe Svitolina can create more chances than Garcia did but it is ridiculus how good Gavrilova played yesterday.
Feels clearly worth investing in Gavrilova who already recorded a win on the surface of Cincinnati.
 
 

Daria Gavrilova to beat Elina Svitolina for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with bet365
Gavrilova has beaten Svitolina twice by 2-0 in sets on hard court in the Hopman Cup at the beginning of the year and on clay in Madrid with and last year Svitolina won by 2-1 and 6- 4 in the decider so then it was even also and now another match between the two.
Svitolina is not as good as the results against Serena at the Olympics says. Serena had one of her poorer days only. It wasn't Svitolina who played the tennis of her life. Match after she was outclassed by Petra Kvitova to come down to earth. Now maybe she did not play for very long in Rio so it is not likely to affect very much but to go to Cincinnati and meet Gavrilova who played just fine yesterday does not bode well. Gavrilova had not a single break point against her during the game against Carolina Garcia. Maybe Svitolina can create more chances than Garcia did but it is ridiculus how good Gavrilova played yesterday.
Feels clearly worth investing in Gavrilova who already recorded a win on the surface of Cincinnati.
 
 

Louisa Chirico to beat Timea Babos for a 7/10 stake at 4.00 with bet365
I'll take Louisa any day here against this out of form Timea who just does'nt play very good nowadays. She's doing unforced errors for fun and the only thing she does good is her slicing and it isn't enough to win matches. I'm taking Louisa here because of her decent level and she's got the home advantage and it's not smart to go for a big favourite like Timea here when she's making so many unforced errors. When Timea played Jelena Ostapenko in Florianopolis quarter there where 9 straight breaks of serve before Jelena Ostapenko finally won the first set and the only thing taking Timea through was her slice and Jelena Ostapenkos huge number of unforced errors.

Louisa Chirico to beat Timea Babos for a 7/10 stake at 4.00 with bet365
I'll take Louisa any day here against this out of form Timea who just does'nt play very good nowadays. She's doing unforced errors for fun and the only thing she does good is her slicing and it isn't enough to win matches. I'm taking Louisa here because of her decent level and she's got the home advantage and it's not smart to go for a big favourite like Timea here when she's making so many unforced errors. When Timea played Jelena Ostapenko in Florianopolis quarter there where 9 straight breaks of serve before Jelena Ostapenko finally won the first set and the only thing taking Timea through was her slice and Jelena Ostapenkos huge number of unforced errors.

M.Zverev - F.Lopez 3.0
Zverev has good wins against dangerous opponents in Cincy in Q (Mannarino, Marchenko). He played with lefty Mannarino sho he's prepared for another lefty.  Lopez was last week in final and it could be worse for him to prepare for Cincy. Their last match was not so clear as result shows. For me is fair odd about 2.5 for Zverev

Back Kateryna Bondarenko to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 2.50 with Ladbrokes
Mladenovic is in such a mess at the moment form-wise and her Olympics were shambles from the mental point of view, so I'm not sure that she'll be able to deliver a good performance against Bondarenko, who's had no Rio duties to worry about. Instead, she's travelled to Cincinnati early for the qualifiers, played two decent matches and is ready to go - and that alone makes her a very live underdog in my opinion. With Mladenovic losing against Kudryavtseva in a similar situation before the Olympics, she could easily lose against Bondarenko after them.

Back Nicolas Mahut (+4.5) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.85 with BetVictor
Too big a line in my opinion, even though Bautista-Agut is the much more complex player and all that jazz. That said, Mahut has been superb in the singles lately and he's covered this line in all 6 of their previous matches (!), so backing him on the games handicap looks like the bet to me. Bautista-Agut also spent slightly more time than Mahut in the Olympics and that's obviously hardly an advantage for him.

Back Andrea Petkovic to beat Lucie Safarova at 1.80 with Coral
There's a decent chance that this isn't even going to happen, but I'd fancy Petkovic big time if it does. She's already practised and played in Cincinnati, while Safarova was still in Rio on Sunday, celebrating her bronze medal in the women's doubles. That should have a positive effect on her in the long term, but I think that fatigue will prevail in the shorter term, especially since she was a bit ill during the Olympics. Petko also leads the H2H 4-3 - it's not particularly important, but it does show that the match-up doesn't have any hidden demons for her.

Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Taylor Fritz at 2.20 with BetVictor
Fritz might be a great prospect for the future, but to have him as the favourite here looks odd to me considering that Youzhny has done little wrong lately. He's also already played a few matches in Cincinnati, while Fritz is yet to make an appearance in the event - and, well, he really hasn't done all that much since the mid-point of the season. Youzhny is hungry for success at the moment and I don't see him as the underdog here at all.

Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Caroline Garcia at 1.91 with Coral
First of all, I think that there's a very small difference between the two quality-wise, but what makes me like this bet a lot is Garcia's current status. She's just losing everywhere she goes and the poor Olympics performance won't do her any good either in my opinion, as she went 1-3 across three disciplines, with her lone win coming against the out-of-form Pereira. Gavrilova, on the other hand, is performing on a fairly consistent level, so I'd give her some sort of an edge here.

Back Elias Ymer to beat Zdenek Kolar at 1.72 with Bet365
Can't pass these odds now that they're out to 1.72, as I rate Ymer as the more promising player of the two. He's had a slump this year, no doubts about that, but he's still better than Kolar, who hasn't beaten anyone as good as Ymer outside home tournaments. This is far from a home tournament for him and Ymer should like the conditions given that he won two good matches here last year, so I'm happy to back him.

Steve Darcis (-4.5) to beat Jordi Samper Montana for a 7/10 stake at evens with Bet365
I can't miss this bet. It has to be good since Steve has covered this line two out of two times winning twice by 6-2 6-2 on clay in France this season not to long ago. Steve loves clay and will most likely be able to cover a -4.5 games handicap. Steve in his current form should cover this easily.

Back Janko Tipsarevic to beat Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo at 1.44 with Betfred
Shorter odds than usual, but worth backing imo after what happened on Saturday. Tipsarevic crushed Riba despite being only a small favourite, while RRH should've lost against Jung really, winning only by the tightest of margins in the end. The veteran has been playing for two weeks straight now with a long match against Jung and he'll now be playing against someone much stronger and with no less motivation to win, so Tipsa looks more like a 1.20 shot to me here in all honesty.

Back Grega Zemlja to beat Marko Tepavac at 1.95 with BetVictor
To be honest, I'm not sure what makes Zemlja the underdog here. Not only is he the better player of the two, but he's also playing at home and this is arguably his best chance to get a Challenger title this year, with a fairly soft draw and good conditions. He won this thing in 2013 and he was the finalist in 2015 (his only two appearances), so I fancy him to beat Tepavac - who's never been a top 100 player - at these odds.

Back Angelique Kerber to beat Johanna Konta at 1.44 with Paddy Power
Konta might have made a lot of progress in this season, but it's still miles below Kerber, who's in a very splendid form at the moment and who's arguably the biggest favourite for the Gold Medal now that Serena is out. Konta also had a very long match against Kuznetsova, which is bound to take its toll. Last match went 7-5 6-2 to Kerber and that was when Konta was peaking, so this shouldn't be too hard for the German.

Rio Olympics :
5pts G.Muller to beat B.Agut 9/5 Marathon
6pts D.Goffin to beat T.Bellucci 2-0 4/6 Betvictor

ATP Los Cabos :
2.5pts H.Zeballos to beat J.Benneteau 2-0 9/5 32red
3pts S.Querrey to beat S.Giraldo 2-0 Evens Paddypower
3pts R.Opelka to beat F.Lopez 3/1 Bet365
Muller looks a good price to beat Agut considering the form differences. Muller is serving well which is key for him and he beat Tsonga quite easily in the previous round. Agut seems to be struggling alittle and has been quite fortunate against lowly ranked players. Goffin looks in top form right now and I fancy him to make light work of Bellucci who doesn't have a very good hard court record this year.
I'll keep the stakes low at Los Cabos. Benneteau hasn't played very well on the hard since 2014 and Zeballos beat Dolgo with ease which bodes well for his motivation here. He's had decent form for a while now Zeb after a very good clay court season and the Argentine can beat Benneteau 2-0. Querrey is a much better hardcourt player than Giraldo and I'm taking him to win 2-0 also. Giraldo has been poor on the hardcourts this year losing more than he has won. Querrey has won the last 3 head-2-heads. Finally, I'm going to take a punt on Opelka again as we do not know how Lopez will play after a abit of time away from the hardcourts. Opelka 1st set may also be a wise punt.

Sara Errani to beat Barbora Strycova for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365
Hell I'll take Sara any day here against Barbora. She's got 6-1 head to head and I played hard on Sara in the Dubai final when she met Barbora. And I'll do it again today. Sara was good when taking out Kiki Bertens and it will have given her some confidence and she knows she can beat Barbora.

Sara Errani to beat Barbora Strycova for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365
Hell I'll take Sara any day here against Barbora. She's got 6-1 head to head and I played hard on Sara in the Dubai final when she met Barbora. And I'll do it again today. Sara was good when taking out Kiki Bertens and it will have given her some confidence and she knows she can beat Barbora.

Rio Olympics : 
5pts G.Monfils Vs R.Silva - Under 19.5 Games Evens Boylesports
4pts J.Millman Vs K.Nishikori - Under 19.5 Games Evens Bet365

Both these two (Gael & Nish) would of been happy seeing Novak go out. It just means if either of them can beat Murray they have a great chance of a Gold medal this year. Both are the kind of player to take a weaker player to the sword and get it "over and done with" Silva is a clay courter who will not be able to cope with Monfils. I'd be very, very surprised if that goes over 20 games. Millman has no form whatsoever and injury concerns and Nishikori is in fine form after getting to an ATP Semi-final.