vicsuna
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Posts posted by vicsuna
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Lazio vs Inter: 1:1
Lazio (18) and Inter (16) own the two current longest unbeaten runs in Serie A across the Top 5 European leagues, only Liverpool (42) are currently on a longer run without defeat. I do not expect either team to lose and the only 2 away games that Inter did not win this season ended 1:1.
28 out of 76 games between Lazio and Inter at Stadio Olimpico ended as ties making it the most frequent outcome of those matches. However, the last time they drew at Lazio's stadium in Serie A was more than 10 years ago - back in 2008 a 1:1 match. I think a draw is a risky bet but like the odds of +6 for correct score 1:1.
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Lazio vs Juventus: HT/FT Draw/Juve
Inter lost points vs Roma and Juve now have the opportunity to go back at the top of the table with a win in Rome.
Lazio are on a run of 9 games without a loss since the game vs Inter, winning 7 and the last 6. However, Lazio have lost 20 out of 31 Serie A games vs teams above them in the table since Inzaghi's appointment in 2016. Their habit of losing vs the best Italian teams was particularly evident last year when they lost 10 out of 14 games vs the top 7.
Juve has the highest % of games half time/ full time draw/win in Europe with 8 such wins from 14 matches(4/7 away). Only the Egyptian Al Mokawloon Al Arab has higher % of such games in the whole world ?, according to stats from fctables.com. Juve has drawn 11 out of 14 games and 6 out of 7 away matches this season in the first 45 minutes - the highest number for both in Serie A.
The last four matches between Lazio and Juve at Stadio Olimpico all ended as HT/FT Draw/Juve win.
I like the odds around 6 for late Juve win.
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Atalanta vs Dinamo Zagreb: Atalanta & BTTS
This is a must win game for Atalanta if they want to progress in Europe. Atalanta's problem is that they concede too many goals. They have conceded a goal in 15 out of 17 games since start of the season & 13 of those matches saw both teams scoring. 5 out of 6 wins for Atalanta also had goals in both ends.
Dinamo Zagreb had 2 thrilling high scoring draws in the last 2 rounds of the Champions League season vs Shakhtar (3:3 & 2:2). The team is more experienced than Atalanta in Europe after going to the round of 16 in Europa League last year. 2 of their 3 losses in Europa League last season had both teams scoring.
Question is if Atalanta can beat Dinamo after losing 4:0 in Zagreb. If they do win, then most likely both teams are going to score and the odds near 3 seem worth it.
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I am trying a 4 game combo Half time or full time draw in the Segunda Division games between Extremadura vs Deportivo, Elche vs Almeria, Numancia vs Rayo, Zaragoza vs Albacete. Odds of +6
Extremadura and Deportivo have both led at half time just 1 time out of 15 games so far. La Coruna also have 7 full time draws from 15 matches.
Almeria have drawn 7 games so far and 5 out of 8 away matches. The appointment of Guti as manager resulted in another draw. Almeria are on a 3 away games streak of draws and 5 of their last 6 Segunda Division matches ended level.
Rayo have drawn 8 games so far this season while 9 of Numancia's matches in the league were stalemates at half time. The last four matches between Numancia and Rayo were draws as well.
Albacete have drawn at half time a league high of 11 times. They have just 1 full time draw, which is the lowest in the division. However, 7 out of 12 Segunda Division matches between Zaragoza and Albacete were level. Albacete's manager Luis Miguel Ramis has drawn all 3 games when he faced Zaragoza, including both matches between these teams last season
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Udinese vs SPAL: Udinese -1 Draw
The new manager effect boosted Udine as they won away vs Genoa in the first game since Tudor got fired, which was a rather harsh decision but goes to show that Udine simply do not want to be in the relegation mix and have high standards. SPAL on the other hand seem to be destined for Serie B next season as they used to draw at home vs bottom side teams but now are losing those 6-pointers without the attacking threat of Lazzari that was sold to Lazio.
Rodrigo de Paul scored his first goal of the season vs Genoa and should help the low scoring Udine snatch a narrow victory. Udinese have won 3 games at home from 6 and all were with 1 goal difference. 6 out of 8 wins for Udine last season at home were by 1 goal margin, including a 3:2 game vs SPAL.
SPAL are the Serie A team with most games lost with 1 goal difference since start of last season 15 out of 49 and tied with Bologna for most away losses in a similar fashion 9 out of 24. It is worth noting that SPAL have played 2 less away games than Bologna so far this season and have also lost every single one of their 5 away matches.
Odds above 3.5 seem a bit generous and should be closer to 3 in my opinion.
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Athletic Bilbao vs Levante: Athletic Bilbao-1 Draw
Only 3 rounds in the last two seasons there was not a La Liga match when at least one home team won by 1 goal difference. Already this season there were two rounds dominated by 0:0 stalemates without a home side winning with 1 goal margin.
Out of the 5 remaining games Levante are the team with the highest % of away losses by just 1 goal margin last season (70% or 7 out of 10 away losses). 3 out of 4 their away losses this season were also by 1 goal difference. I know Levante won at home vs Barca in the last round but they lost the very next game even after the last time they won on their own turf vs Barcelona in a thrilling 5:4 game 2 seasons ago.
Athletic Bilbao had the second highest % of home wins by just 1 goal difference last season(66% or 6 out of 9 home wins) from remaining home sides this round after Betis. They have just one such win out of 4 home wins so far this season and the coincidence is that it was against Barca in the first round.
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Parma vs Torino: Draw
Parma had 5 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses at home last season, but didn't manage to beat one of the top 10 sides at home - losing 6 games and 4 matches ended level. Parma lost all 4 matches at home vs top 4 teams(Juve, Napoli, Inter, Atalanta), so Gialloblu had 4 draws out of 6 games at home vs top half teams outside of top 4 like Torino.
Meanwhile, Torino drew 13, won 4 and lost just 2 away games last season. That record will most probably not be repeated as Torino had its first away loss last season in mid January and the team already lost away vs Sampdoria 1:0. Anyway, it is worth noting that il Toro drew all 7 away games last season vs teams from 10th to 16th place, including a goalless tie vs Parma.
Both Parma and Torino are coming off narrow home wins in last round and both teams are yet to have a single draw after 5 games. Expected goals data shows that Torino should have been second from bottom, but that just points out how difficult it is to score past Sirigu and how clinical il Toro are at the front. Torino lost their last 2 games vs not so open teams from bottom half of the table and I suspect they will be happy with a point from the visit to Parma.
- sajtion and StevieDay1983
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Everton vs Sheffield United: HT/FT Draw/Everton
Everton are the team with most Half Time/Full Time Draw/Wins at home in the each of the last 2 seasons 7 in 17/18 and 6 in 18/19.
Everton had the most draws at half time at home (10) from all Premiership teams last season. They are on 6 games win streak at home in the league and none of their matches so far this season at home were half time/full time draw/win. Everton had 5 such games out of 6 home matches vs newly promoted sides in the last 2 seasons. Sheffield United have drawn both of their away games so far this season and seem to be tough to crack, so I like the odds above 4 and a late win for Everton.
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I also fancy Parma to win vs Cagliari. Cagliari have lost 37 out of 57 away games since coming back in Serie A, winning 10 and drawing another 10 times. Pavolleti is out for 7 months and he is a huge miss for Cagliari as he was their top scorer with 16 Serie A goals and their second most prolific scorer Joao Pedro had 7. Pedro has scored the only goal for Cagliari so far this season. I also believe Barella's move to Inter and bringing Radja Nainggolan has not improved the team.
I would be looking for a draw in the game between Brescia and Bologna. 7 out of 10 games between Brescia and Bologna since the start of new millennium when Brescia were hosts ended as draws and 4 out of 6 in Serie A. Bologna have not won away vs Brescia since 1998. Bologna already drew away vs one newly promoted team. They lost once and had 2 away ties vs newly promoted sides last season.
Brescia have 1 win vs Cagliari and 1 loss vs Milan from the first 2 rounds that they played away from home. Bologna are unbeaten so far after late win vs Spal and 1 draw vs Verona. 16 out of 27 newly promoted teams had at least one draw after 3 Serie A matches since the Juve reign started in 2011/12 and 38 out of 64 since the start of new millennium.
Bologna are on a 5 game unbeaten streak in Serie A but they have also not won in their last 5 Serie A away games, drawing last 2 matches.
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Eibar vs Espanyol: Eibar to win
Eibar’s performance since the start of the season has been gradually improving after 3 away games even though they only won 1 point so far. Eibar lost 2:1 the first game as they missed a lot of chances vs Mallorca, drew 0:0 vs Osasuna and the team almost managed to take a point from last season’s best home side - Atletico Madrid scoring twice in a thrilling 3:2 game.
Meanwhile, Espanyol are yet to score a goal in La Liga this season losing twice at home 0:2 vs Sevilla/0:3 vs Granada in last game and drawing 0:0 away vs Alaves. Espanyol have a hard time replacing Borja Inglesias’s 17 goals from last season (35% of all their La Liga goals) as their second most prolific scorer last season scored just 4 goals.
Eibar have won 5 out of 10 games vs Espanyol in La Liga and 3 out of 5 at home, including the most recent 3:0 win at the start of 2019. Eibar’s coach Jose Luis Mendilibar has won 10 out of 18 games vs Espanyol and 6 out of 9 at home. Espanyol is actually Mendilibar’s favorite team to play against as he has the most wins in his managerial career exactly against the Catalan team.
- StevieDay1983 and AndreBR
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Brighton vs Burnley: Draw
Burnley won both games vs Brighton last season after a run of 5 draws between the two teams. Burnley’s coach Sean Dyche has faced Brighton 11 times, drawing 6 games or more than 50%. Last season’s win at the AMEX stadium was actually Dyche’s first there after 3 draws and 2 losses. 2 out of 4 games between Brighton and Burnley in the Premiership ended as draws.
Brighton have won 80 points in 80 Premiership games since coming back to the elite level of English football. Brighton are the only team in the last 2 seasons besides Southampton whose home matches are more likely to end as a draw than any other outcome. I generally see a little less than 50% chance for a draw in this game so odds above 3 look like value to me.
P.s.: As a Manchester United fan I hope we win vs Leicester. Saw a graph showing that based on expected goals Manchester United should have been second after City this season but maybe this is because of those missed penalties. I just do not think we are as bad as 8-9 place as some say. May bet on Maguire to score anytime as often players score against their former teams.
- MaliMisko12, StevieDay1983 and AndreBR
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Bologna always scores goals in the second half ?
anyway, my pick from Serie A this weekend is a draw between Atalanta and Torino. The game is played at a neutral stadium of Parma as Atalanta is reconstructing its stadium, so there shouldn’t be huge home advantage.
Atalanta has the best Serie A record in 2019(44 points), second is Juve(40) third is Torino(39). Atalanta was also the highest scoring Serie A side last season, but this all-out attack strategy doesn’t work against the top sides.
Atalanta did not win 70% of their games vs top 8(Juve, Napoli, Inter, Roma, Lazio, Milan and Torino) and drew 50% of those games or 7 ties out of 14 matches last season. Even when you take out the two best sides Juve and Napoli out of top 8, Atalanta drew 5 out of 10 games vs rest of top 8.
Torino won 4, drew 4 and lost only 2 games vs the best of the rest(Inter, Roma, Lazio, Milan and Atalanta). Torino conceded the least amount of goals in those games and did not let one goal in two games vs Atalanta last season(2:0 at home and 0:0 away). Torino had 2 draws and 2 losses vs Napoli and Juve fwiw.
Torino drew 13 out of 19 away games last season and they are the team with the most draws in Serie A since they returned to the top tier in 2012. Their record is 92 wins, 94 draws, 82 losses in all Serie A games since 2012/13 season and 33 wins, 53 draws and 48 losses from the away games during that period.
I understand that Torino may be a bit tired after losing vs Wolves in Europa League but odds above 4 are too high in my opinion.
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This post from @Tiffy few months ago made me think I do not want to bet against Brighton this season as Tony Bloom - one of the most successful UK punters surrounded with computers has made a calculated bet to sack Chris Hughton and appoint Graham Porter. So far his bet is paying off. I reckon Brighton will not lose vs Southampton at home and will win a lot more points than most would expect.
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Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Correct score 2:0
Last season the most common correct score in the Premiership was 2:0 and so far this season there has not been one such match after 2 rounds.
4 out of 10 Premiership games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford have finished 2:0 for the Red Devils. The average Premier League match at Old Trafford had 2.2 goals for Manchester United and 0.2 goals for Crystal Palace.
The only PL goals for Palace at the Theatre of Dreams came 15 years ago when they lost 5:2 and sir Alex was still in charge. Actually since Ferguson retired, 3 out of 6 games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford ended 2:0 with the most recent being a 0:0 stalemate.
Manchester United had 7 2:1 wins last season (5 at home) and only 2 2:0 wins(none at home), but clearly the team has improved defensively and should concede less goals this season so those 2:1s may become 2:0s.
Expected goals data since start of the season shows 1.76 expected goals for Manchester United and 0.7 against them on average. Crystal Palace's average match had 0.555 expected goals for them (lowest in the league) and 1.535 expected goals against them.
- freddie01, BobEire and StevieDay1983
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Everton vs Watford: HT/FT Draw/Everton
Burned my fingers last week with Everton but willing to try my luck again. Everton are the team with most Half Time/Full Time Draw/Wins at home in the each of the last 2 seasons 7 in 17/18 and 6 in 18/19. This means 13 out of their last 20 wins at home in the Premiership ended in such a fashion or more than a third out of 38 games.
Everton had the most draws at half time both at home (10) and in all games (21) from all Premiership teams last season. They also won more than 50% of their home games last season and 10 out of 12 games vs Watford at home.
Odds for that bet are generous above 4.5, so implied probability is less than 25% and I see value here. A slow start and Everton win is what I am looking for in this tight match.
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Mallorca vs Eibar: Draw
- 8 out of 19 away games last season ended as a draw for Eibar.
- Mallorca had 3 friendlies vs La Liga sides in the last month and did not win any of those games - ties vs Getafe & Real Valladolid, losing vs Levante.
- Eibar’s coach Jose Luis Mendilibar has faced Mallorca 9 times in La Liga before, recording 5 draws vs that team, including ties in last 4 matches.
- Since Mendilibar’s appointment in July 2015 Eibar are the team with most away draws in La Liga - 24 out of 76.
- The promoted sides have drawn 7 out of last 12 opening La Liga matches.
- This is going to be the first game between Mallorca and Eibar in La Liga.
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Charlton vs Stoke: Draw
The first round of Championship matches ended with just 1 draw out of 12 games. Looking at last season's 3.5 draws per round and 17/18's +3.2 draws per round, I expect reversion to the mean and some draws this round.
Stoke had the most draws last season with 22 ties out of 46 games and 57% draw rate from away games or 13 out of 23. Stoke's away games vs bottom 7 last season all ended as draws, including ties with newly promoted Wigan and Rotherham. In fact Stoke drew 50% of their games vs newly promoted sides(+ Blackburn) last season.
Stoke are the favourites in this match but they only managed 3 wins out of 22 games in the Championship this calendar year. Stoke had 11 draws out of those 22 matches and 8 losses. No wonder that bet365 are giving lowest odds (3.2) for a draw from whole round exactly on this match.
Charlton may have won in first round as they were more clinical with more shots on target from less shots and less possession than Blackburn, but no newly promoted side has won their first two matches in Championship since 11/12 season when Brighton and Southampton achieved that(Southampton even managed to qualify to the Premiership in that season).
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Crystal Palace vs Everton: Everton to win
Selhurst Park is the smallest Premiership stadium in London and typically teams visiting Crystal Palace have a walk in the park. Last season Palace didn’t score a goal in front of their own fans until the end of October and they didn’t win at home until December. They only scored 19 goals in their own ground all season and five of them (26%) came in their 5-3 win over Bournemouth on the final day of the season.
Crystal Palace have won only 1 game out of 10 matches at home in the Premiership vs Everton and that happened 25 years ago. Everton won 5 games and the other 4 matches at Selhurst Park ended as ties.
Roy Hodgson is the current favourite to be the first sacked manager in the Premiership and he is facing one of his least favourite opponents in the first round of the season as Everton have beaten teams led by Hodgson 10 out of 17 times.
Palace's player of 18/19 season - Wan Bissaka went to Manchester United, Michy Batshuayi returned to Chelsea and their star upfront Zaha wanted to force a move out of the club till deadline day. Lack of incoming quality transfers with only 7.6 million EUR spent and Gary Cahill coming for free suggests Palace may fall short of last year's results.
Meanwhile, Everton reinforced almost all positions of their squad and only lost 1 key player - Idrissa Guye, who may have been very good defensively but some pundits reckon he did not add anything to the team's attacking play. Everton did manage to replace Guye with the defensive midfielder Gbambin from Mainz that can even score goals and added one of Europe's hottest young talents - Moise Kean from Juventus.
All in all it seems justified that the odds for Everton have shortened from 2.6 to 2.37 on bet365 since @StevieDay1983 opened this topic few weeks ago and I am happy to back them as well.
- sajtion, StevieDay1983 and i1_principe
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Senegal vs Algeria
Since the start of the new millennium there have been 10 African cup of nations finals 5 ended as draws & decided by penalties and 5 ended with a win with just 1 goal difference. Basically it is 50/50 whether game ends as draw in full time or one of the teams wins with a margin of 1 goal. It is difficult to pick a side in this game. Senegal are generally the better team but Koulibaly won't play and they already lost vs Algeria 1:0 in the group stage. This was the only goal Senegal conceded so far in the tournament while Algeria have only conceded a goal in the quarterfinal and the semifinal. I will bet that one of the teams wins on penalties and draw/draw first half/second half.
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Madagascar vs DR Congo: Draw
DR Congo are the bookies' favourites but they face the unbeaten side of Madagascar making their debut at the tournament. DR Congo hold an all-time African Cup of Nations record of 20 wins, 23 draws and 29 losses from 72 matches. They had one 4:0 win and two 2:0 losses in the group stage of the cup. Law of averages calls for a draw in this one.
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I truly believe Manchester United will finish in top 4 this season and the odds of 6/5 seem worth a punt. Ole is doing smart transfers of hungry players that have the potential to grow and enhance the team. I don't like the fact that Manchester United is giving away contract renewals so easily... for example recently awarded Phil Jones with contract extension till 2023 but I guess they do not want to lose players for free. Even if Pogba goes to Juve or Real, I see the team better off this year as football is a weak link sport and Man United have already improved two of their weakest spots - RB and RW. Tuanzebe may play as CB alongside Lindeloff if no one else is signed but most probably there will be some quality central defender signing with the funds from the almost certain sale of Lukaku. Arsenal and Chelsea look like a shadow of themselves, so unless there is some surprise team challenging the top 6 teams I reckon Manchester United will have just enough to edge in Champions League football again.
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As a Manchester United fan I am hoping Aaron Wan Bissaka's transfer gets finalized given the need for quality right back. Ashley Young is too old and the whole defence needs a refresh but AWB's transfer from Crystal Palace seems as a done deal and the bookies give odds of 7/20 tops.
Premier League Predictions > Sep 12th - 14th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
I am also backing the draw in this match as Wolves are the draw specialists in the league from the last 2 seasons and there has not been one draw so far in this round. Sheffield are strong when playing on their own turf but Wolves are generally the better side.