** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **
robilaruk
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Posts posted by robilaruk
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Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
I said insta-call, then I realised that migrita is UTG, so BB next hand. Hmm I might just fold this and hope that someone else busts/I get to shove something better (it depends on how aggressive and bullying rulin & BRstud are really) Right, off to crunch! DamoOk what about this one? Think it would be interesting if you give your thoughts before the analysis and after the analysis - it will be interesting to see what you think when the maths are different from your gut feel :ok -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers you got another one please? Damo
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Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ
spot on play:ok DamoA call here was off the agenda, so i pushed in an attempt to get MikePyp out of the pot and go heads up agaisnt the shorter stack. -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
probably the antes - caused me all sorts of problems trying to work out who got what! DamoNot a huge difference, but I dont agree with your "Equity if we call and win" number.... -
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Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Bah, how do you get the nice fancy easy to read post that looks like the spreadsheet you have in excel! rather than that nonsense above! :eyes Damo
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Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
without crunching I insta-fold here I will now go and make myself some coffee syrup to ensure my tired brain is buzzing and do some maths BRB DamoWorth emphasizing - we've so far only looked at how to analyse the situation where someone has shoved, you are last to act and need to call or fold. Next will be looking at whether you shove or fold when everyone folds to you in the small blind.... -
Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ
you cannot just call here and let the big stack in for 'free', so shove to isolate the shortie and :hope he has AK or you suck out against his AA/KK DamoAll i want is the blinds and antes, don't want to see a flop and have a K or Ace hit. asjohnstone: ??? -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
A-HA - thank you for the clarification - so once you get to the 100/200 stage most players at the table fall under ICM - so all we need to know then is their potential shove range and pick our BB hands and see if we should call - so its not blinds we need to know but shove ranges. Thanks :ok DamoYes and that is probably one of the biuggest weaknesses of ICM. ICM is only used when you are short stacked - It compares shoving/calling a shove with folding - it doesnt consider other options - calling/raising etc. In general you should not be using ICM until the effective stack size is less than about 10xBB. -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
if we can build in some calc's to take in what the blinds are/going to be, it makes the ICM model more relevant as to what is exactly happening in the game at that precise point. At the moment the you get the same result if the blinds are 10/20 or 10K/20K yes? I am not saying it would work, but asking whether it is possible? For instance when do we call (or shove) with our cards - to use your 22 post earlier, if we can put our opponent on playing top 30%, and we hold 22 should we call the AI if the blinds are 10/20, 75/150, 300/600 etc - that way we can (hopefully) put multiple blinds into the sheet with the appropriate calc's and see straight away at what blind point we should call with 22 by it showing as a positive expectation (does that make sense?). DamoYes - the calculations are in the public domain......problem is that by the time you fifth place, it's getting reasonably complicated - it's beyond my excel skills (will need scripting I think :unsure) but imagine it'll be pretty straightforward for someone who can do it :unsure Having said that, not sure what advantage you would get by having available in Excel as opposed to the website :unsure -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
Dows anyone know how it actually is calculated (the 2-5), not the first? Am wondering if this can be transposed to excel and then other calc's added (blinds/M etc) to keep all the maths in one place rather than many? Just wondering DamoEach chip is considered a "lottery ticket" with an equal chance of winning. etc..... (though it's probably not too important to fully understand how this is calculated - -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA I dunno my first night off in a week and he expects me to do some maths:eyes..... (bloody slavedriver..........:spank:tongue2:spank) Harken? is that my poorly child awake again? oh dear I must run..... honest...... Damo ps reckon I got away with that - he wont notice I was fibbing......:eek pps post it up, no guarentees I will do it tonight or Saturday (we are entertaining!) but I will do it. Most effective way of learning - by doing!Make sure you understand this Damo - because at the end I'll give you a hand to analyse and ask you to come up with the numbers to check it makes sense :ok -
Re: Tournament - AKo - reraised - M=8.5ish
Call then, I would agree that he is probably bullying and is prepared to gamble to knock you out and pick up a decent stack to add to his own. You might be a very large fav here 70/30, and in much better shape 'later' when you are AI with shite hoping for a fold etc. I hadn't noticed the stats, never used PT/PO et al as I don't play cash and though i understand their limited value in tourney re the ever increasing blinds, I think they do give some indication of how LAAG the villian is. Cheers DamoIt's far enough from the money that that isn't a consideration - my only concern is tournament chips. The stats on screen are Pokeroffice - of 25 hands I've seen, his VPIP is 28%, his PFR is 12% and his aggression is 7. So he's not afraid to be getting involved. -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
yes thank you - was interested in comparing before and after and what happens Obviously the shover's equity increases a lot if you fold, by 13%; Your equity decreases by 10%, but the only other player radically affected by the change is the other short to middle stack in the SB who drops 3% (loss of SB) - it doesn't affect any others significantly, so they dont seem to gain if you fold. (question: if the SB was the biggest stack, would their equity drop by 3% as well) However everyone gains if you call and win and most by about 3-4 % (you gain alot 26%), however I can't understand why player 6 and player 10 who have similar stacks have a wide difference in +equity - player 6 has 0.3% increase yet player 10's increase is over 4% - I realise player 6 has payed the SB and 'lost' it but their overal equity is now Player 6 61.26 Player 10 59.81 yet before the hand they were Player 6 60.96 Player 10 55.68 Thats a massive swing even though player 6 is now 'safe' from the blinds for an orbit, and player 10 is soon to pay them. So ICM does not take upcoming blinds into the equation then. Damo (I think I have answered my own question!)Ok - the equity before any cards are dealt, and before any blinds are paid is as below. Our stack of 1305 chips holds 54.252% tournament equity - so our seat before the hand is worth €5.43. Is that what you meant? -
Re: Tournament - AKo - reraised - M=8.5ish
any other info? TAG/LAG/doing this alot? how far to the money? how are the other players playing? are you comfortable folding and getting your chips back later? do you need to go for a pee/walk/take the dog for a walk etc so you want it over and done with one way or the other? ta DamoCall or fold? -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
quick request - can you post the ICM at the start of the hand please - am wondering what the stats are and how much they differ before we fold and shover wins. ta DamoLets use the hand here - 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 We are last to act, so that simplifies the situation enormously. -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
the questions are more about game play than the software/figs - as in who best to target and why And I have a feeling the EV bit will answer the question of when to get involved (i.e if +ev over tourney % then play, otherwise fold) Damo ps hang on - BRB, poorly child just awoken, a couple of stories and she will be asleep again! :)If you have questions on this - best to ask them now I think :ok -
Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers BTW can this be stickied for a bit please? Ta Damo
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Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers
Are you still with me' date=' and any questions on this aspect?[/quote'] EXCELLENT - this is just what I was asking for:clap:clap:clap Thank you:ok Damo looking forward to the next bit and saving his questions until the end -
Re: Coolers - lets discuss strategy
are you asking me or slapdash? :unsure In both cases we are calling! we are trying to figure out a way to win the chips with as few as players as possible in the pot to better our chances of that win. In Slap's example he min-raises, hoping that someone might reraise to isolate and so he calls HU, or everyone folds and he takes the blinds. In my examples, I had a variety of scenarios that might happen and what I would do. Hope this helps:ok DamoSo you're attempting to keep people out of the pot ? Let's assume you get flat called here. What do you do when someone bets the flop ? Fold with 30 chips and be forced in with your 30 chips from the small blind ? I think not. -
Re: Coolers - lets discuss strategy
excellent:ok - please can we start with "what all these numbers mean on the big tables I keep posting in my analysis posts" Cheers:ok DamoMore than happy to go step by step through the process I do and explain what I can - however anyone who wishes to interpret the results properly must understand at least basically, concepts of ev and ICM first. -
Re: Coolers - lets discuss strategy
is this a good way to do it? pick a hand and post an ICM table like you have used before with tags showing us what each column means and a basic if it is above this figure it is positive to play, if it is below that figure it is negative to play then post another table showing the next hand and do the same again then post a third table showing the next hand showing the same again that way we can see small changes to the tables and the ICM calcs. This I think would aid us to see a series of hands evolve and show the steps on the tables to give us a better understanding of what the numbers are showing. What I am particularly interested in is how we could use the info in a 'live' game and make a snap decision based on findings. I think that post game analysis with pokerstove and opinions is vital, but something that aids you in your 15 sec decision time in a hand is critical. Would the ICM calculator do that for you? I am prepared to wait and let the maths guru's among you sit and discuss first rather than expecting you to do it all this weekend:ok It is a tall order and most appreciated, so take you time and do the basics first (like posting the table and telling us what each column and figures are showing!) DamoSo what I'd propose is finding external sources to understand the common aspects and then I will try and put some explanation into how I'm applying that to coolers - how does that sound? I'll look around for information to reference over the weekend - the way I see it is that there are 3 steps to ensure you understand pretty well (and each is a prerequisite to the next): 1) Expected Value (ev) 2) STT ICM 3) ICM theory applied to coolers I suggest we work through 1 and 2 together (ensuring everyone understands 1 before moving on to 2) from external sources and then work through 3 creating our own reference material. Does that sound reasonable?
Separate Cash Poker Strategy Forum?
in Poker
Posted
Re: Separate Cash Poker Strategy Forum? can I change my mind please? I think a no vote is in order. I don't think I want strategy split now, I don't often read the cash threads, but I imagine a lot of folks here do read both and they need to be switching back and forth between forums if its split. I agree with Slap and Avon - better thread titles would help to distinguish what form of poker the question is about. Strategy is strategy and should remain so, lets make it as user friendly as possible for all. Sorry to be a pain Damo