Pirate53

Value bet Rockesbury 2nd.

Lingfield 12.45
Pour La Victoire   18.75      8/1       9/2    No value  
Heptathlete           17.7      17/2     15/8   No value
De Little Engine    16.8       9/1       9/1   About right
Para Mio               16.45     9/1      28/1   Some value
Rockesbury           16.1     19/2      11/1  Value

Lingfield 12.45
Pour La Victoire   18.75      8/1       9/2    No value  
Heptathlete           17.7      17/2     15/8   No value
De Little Engine    16.8       9/1       9/1   About right
Para Mio               16.45     9/1      28/1   Some value
Rockesbury           16.1     19/2      11/1  Value

Very close on all runners bar Game of life. I had %age chance of winning for 11 runners between 7% and 9.5%!

Can u think of any less from Ur all weather master lol off tomorrow may post some picks!

Well you had that one right ?..well rated 

6.00 newc
First response 8.4  7/1 8/1 value 
Curfewed 8.2 15/2 20.0 very good value 
Both are value bets ...especially curfewed who looks a  very good price 
First response 5pts ew 8/1 betv
Curfewed 5pts win 20.0 ..5pts place 5.3 betfair 
 

I have pholas great colci and first response, with first response my bets pick then Pholas

Newcastle 18.00
Very close ratings here.
Mossbawn     13.25     My odds  9/1          11/2   No value
Jewel Maker   12.7      My odds  17/2        11/2   No value       
First Response 12.6    My odds  17/2        9/1     About right
Baronial Pride   12.35  My odds  10/1        5/1    No value
Traveller       12.2        My odds  10/1       12/1   Some value
Boma Green  11.3      My odds   11/1       11/2    No value
Great Colaci  11.15     My odds  11/1        14/1   Some value
Curfewed      10.55     My odds   11.5/1    14/1   Some value
Mossbawn the Hugh Taylor selection so price has been depressed. Will try a small ew on Traveller.
If pushed to give a winner I'd say Jewel Maker.
 

Skybet are offering evens (only to £10) for frankie to have 1+ winners at meydan today
not bad considering he is on 4/6 shot soft whisper in the 16.50

Newcastle 18.00
Very close ratings here.
Mossbawn     13.25     My odds  9/1          11/2   No value
Jewel Maker   12.7      My odds  17/2        11/2   No value       
First Response 12.6    My odds  17/2        9/1     About right
Baronial Pride   12.35  My odds  10/1        5/1    No value
Traveller       12.2        My odds  10/1       12/1   Some value
Boma Green  11.3      My odds   11/1       11/2    No value
Great Colaci  11.15     My odds  11/1        14/1   Some value
Curfewed      10.55     My odds   11.5/1    14/1   Some value
Mossbawn the Hugh Taylor selection so price has been depressed. Will try a small ew on Traveller.
If pushed to give a winner I'd say Jewel Maker.
 

No luck with this one. The hot favourite didn’t win though.

2nd and 5th ...both ew 

I'll re rate the race in the morning ....knew it would cut up 

I wondered why I couldn't find my posts! Lol, dickhead.

I agree with favouring the higher rated. One thing to remember is that it's the difference between one rating and another that counts, rather than the rating in itself. If you start with the lowest (say its 165 as your example) and knock off 150 so the rating is 15 then carry on up to 180 which becomes 30. I have tried this method in my handicap ratings and it works. (the 150 is just an example, it may work better with 120 or whatever) Then you can adjust this new rating with whatever you want, say add 10 for a top trainer or similar. You can also then add things like apprentice allowances etc. Adding 3pts to a rating of 165 makes little difference but adding 3 to 15 does actually do something! Just my thoughts.

I wondered why I couldn't find my posts! Lol, dickhead.

1st and 2nd but wrong way round! Pleased with that.

I can understand why hes fav ......cap du Nords collateral form looks top draw .....the winner...4th  and 7th all came out and ran fantastic and he does fit the profile of usual winner .....only concern I can see is distance and ground if its heavy .....I think the race will cut up badly so I'm holding back 

Is rating handicaps any different to rating a graded race? Better chance of value in handicaps , but just wondering what people’s thoughts are on ratings for graded races. I’ve had a go at Thurles today (12.45) . At work so don’t have ratings at hand but I have Allaho as a very weak favourite. He’s 10/11 but way down on ratings. Balko Des Flos (25/1)ended up top rated, but I weren’t happy with that and had to adjust his current mark rating to what I think is a realistic score . He looks about right now, and is behind 3-4 on ratings. If I remember right I had Elimay or Easy Game top rated with Battleofdoyen and Annamix just behind. Back on to Balko Des Flos. He drops back to a trip he’s ran very well at in past, but no win since that very classy RyanAir win at Cheltenham (2018). Ran well lto considering he got badly hampered. Runs off 155 so potentially well  treated. Anyway we’ll see and I’ll post up how I rated race once I get back from work. I’m hoping it’s pretty accurate as I’d love to be able to use ratings on graded races at the festival 

Dr Churchill my 5th rated at 18.62 one of 4 horses on 10/1. Would've been value too at 12/1 SP

Wolves 19.10
Major J    21.4                   My odds 8/1       2/1 No value
The Good Ting 19.43        My odds 17/2     5/1 No value
Lady Of Desire  19.37       My odds 17/2    10/1 some value
Desert Mist   19.34            My odds 17/2    22/1 value.

Dr Churchill my 5th rated at 18.62 one of 4 horses on 10/1. Would've been value too at 12/1 SP

2nd .....didn't get run on until too late ....finished like a train... unlucky 

Wolves 19.10
Major J    21.4                   My odds 8/1       2/1 No value
The Good Ting 19.43        My odds 17/2     5/1 No value
Lady Of Desire  19.37       My odds 17/2    10/1 some value
Desert Mist   19.34            My odds 17/2    22/1 value.