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Kanga

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Posts posted by Kanga

    LOGISTIC RATINGS.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Do you have a fixed cut-off point for top sides in all leagues or have you found they vary. For example in the Premiership you may remove the top 4 teams in the SPL just the top 2, another way of doing this could be looking at past odds where you remove any results against teams at say

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs Andy, Your table means very little in reality until you compare them against actual bookies odds, only that way can you see if your efforts have been profitable. I'd suggest checking the profitability of each of your ratings separately, and then in various combinations e.g where system 1 and 3 both pick the same outcome, this should give you 6 columns of interest.

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 327 bets, 170% return / corner sta If I can interject a little here with some ramblings .... I tend to think of Yield (or ROI) as basically an efficiency rating ..... I know it's a useful number for comparison .... but at the end of the day it's the profit that's the nice number to have. So on that basis could you not say after say 30 matches the spread bet account made XXX profit and the fixed odds made XXX return .... and try your best to correlate the amount risked ???

    How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

    to summarize, there are two basic school of thoughts/practices: 1. Keep looking for exceptional winners (be it favorites or underdogs), & "value" will take care of itself. 2. Keep looking for value (mispriced bets), & the "winner" will take care of itself. i think both are valid.
    Well Put :clap ... and i speak as somebody who tries to find miss-prices. At the risk of trying to simplify such an interesting thread into a few words can i try and summarise this all by saying that ........ Finding the best price possible is as important as the selection method itself ..... and vice versa :lol It's my belief that you need both to be profitable.

    4 Systems are better than 1 ?? (EXTINCT)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ??

    Let me try to clarify my point of view. There are two points that are absolute essential for me in sports betting: 1. I do not just want to make profit. I want to maximize my profit. 2. For every possible outcome in every possible market there is an absolute probability for it to come true. This probability is defined as the frequency of the specific outcome to come in if the particular match is played under identic circumstances many times. We will never be able to compute this probability of an outcome exactly, because a match will not be played under identic circumstances many times. But the fact that we are not able to measure it does not contradict the fact that this absolute probability exists. If you follow these two points (and it would need really really stunning arguments to convince me that one of it is wrong), the immediate conclusion is that going with two contradicting systems can not be the right way.
    Bexxs ... I totally agree with what you are saying, and I think we have been talking a little at cross purposes but it's a great debate :ok It's a can of worms, this efficiency vs profit debate .... some would rather fewer bets with a higher yield ... others would prefer the profit in the bank account with a larger number of bets but no so efficient. You can follow profitable systems where they both cross and still profit (as i was trying to show) ... if you were to then remove the "conflicting events" from each of the systems and tally up, I'm sure the overall difference would be negligible yet still profitable.

    4 Systems are better than 1 ?? (EXTINCT)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ??

    Yes' date= but you will never get lay odds less than back odds at the same time.... what you are referring to is "trading" at two separate points in time following a shift in the market. I don't think that "trading" has anything to do with system predictions.... or perhaps I am misunderstanding your point.
    Hi Grex, Slightly :loon I was trying to use a simple example to confirm that following separate systems even on the same match and even when they seem to totally conflict can still return a profit. Another example is where system 1 says back liverpool to win ... system 2 says back the draw in the same match ..... it maybe that both systems have highlighted that the away team is overated. K:ok

    4 Systems are better than 1 ?? (EXTINCT)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ??

    do not agree with you here. I think you cannot bet with independent systems on the same market without forfeiting a part of the profit.
    Imagine you have 2 systems both profitable .... one is a back system one is a lay system .... system 1 says back Liverpool at 2.20 .... system 2 says lay Liverpool at 2.00. If both bets are matched on betfair (or wherever, but I chose betfair for the ease of a visual example) you will see that you have still made a profit even by following 2 totally independent and apparently contradicting systems.
    But you definitely need to combine your systems to maximize your profit.
    As long as whatever systems you are following have sound reasoning and make longterm gains, then you need to follow them even if they seem to conflict.

    Pullein Power

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Pullein Power

    As I have hinted previously I dont think you can just back the ones with the biggest value because once you are getting value of over + or - 20% the results are not good...usually this just means your ratings are wrong or havent accounted for something like the situation' date=' team news etc.[/quote'] I started a thread somewhere called "inverse value" sorry can't find the link it's very interesting that whatever rating system is used the bigger the value rating the worse they seem to perform and going against them is usually more profitable. How about checking value bands ? Say 0-10% 11-20% 21-30% ... etc...etc or you could try 0-15% ... 16-30% ...etc ...etc Same with negative value. This way you may see a band that is "intune" with results.

    Pullein Power

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Pullein Power Don't lose faith just yet bud :ok. The sample size is still small as yet .... If it helps a "value" method I follow hasn't been performing well lately, the expected strike rate is lower than it should be. Try this as a test - take the average odds of all the value selections lets say 4.26 decimal as an example ..... the formula is (1/(odds-1)) = 1/3.26 = 0.3067 = 30.67% compare that to the strike rate you are actually achieving for the value picks.

    away favor!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: away favor!

    Chanced upon this thread.. I do admit that I was a victim of Martingale. In my opinion, I do not think that Martingale is suicidal IF you starting stake is a small small small portion of the bank. For example, you have 1,000,000 points and your stake is 1 point (followed by 2, 4, 8...), it would be able to last for 19 times. If you are going for odds that are around evens, I don't think it's easy to have a run of 19 losses. The main problem lies in that nobody with the right mind will spend $1 betting on a match when you have $1 million sitting your bank earning interest. To the person who is that rich, it's probably a waste a time. To me, punters' failure with Martingale is more due to human nature or the way humans think.
    That's true to a large degree but there are other not so obvious factors to consider :- Are the bets you take true evens chances ? .... if it's worse than that, it makes a nasty losing run even more likely, and it's amazing how long a losing run you can expect mathematically ... then there's the liquidity problem as the bets get larger are you certain to get covered ... even if you do the price you will get will almost certainly be a bad price ... and the price you take on bets is equal in importance at the very least to the selection method by which they are chosen. Martingale in whatever form is best to be avoided for numerous reasons.

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

    Speaking to Kanga a while back and something he said hit home. Went along the lines of better to sell 100 widgets regularly at £5 than 5 widgets rarely for £100 or something like that! He can explain it better than me but its about turnover.
    That's a nice compliment A1e, Thanks ..... Just to clarify for the thread all I said was based on the principle shops use in there sales strategy ..... a shop owner would rather the profits from the turnover of sales of 50 widgets at £10 than .... 20 widgets at £20. BUT (and just to complicate things a little now) in muppets system the stake amounts aren't equal ....... the staking can also be seen as a confidence indicator, in the sense that it shows how close the spreads are to the corners he predicts. What is impressive is that there seems to be a very close correlation between the difference predicted and the profits shown which is exactly how it should be and confidence boosting :ok I guess it's each to there own regarding wether to back the 1 pointers or not as a profit is still shown, but personally speaking I would rather this proves to work over double the amount of leagues then i'd stick to 3 pointers and over for the same amount of bets :loon

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 192 bets +20% yield M ... if you look at your graph and look at peak to trough runs you'll notice that back at around 48 bets the roi was 26% and then around 64 bets you were down to 9% roi ..... by about 75 bets you were back up to 31% roi. The current poor run is within a previous peak to trough and you've recovered from that before ..... keep the faith :ok

    Making Money on Betfair

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Making Money on Betfair For UK racing the longest winning streak for favourites is 10. This happened at the Catterick meeting in October 2001 when 8 winning favs won on the trot. The last race fav won at Windsor the day before, and the first race fav won at Wolverhampton (evening racing) the same day as Catterick making 10 winning favs on the trot.

    away favor!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: away favor! Be careful with any FA Cup matches .... because the nature of the competition brings in other factors .... underdogs playing for glory or the chance to play on TV .... cash strapped teams playing for a draw to get a rematch at a lucrative venue .... etc etc etc.

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