richard-westwood

3.00 hay 
Aztec empire  8.9 9/2 
Forza  orta   8.8 15/2 
5pt wins both 

335 hay 
Very Very classy and interesting race ....obviously shaquille will be hard to beat but no horse is unbeatable in these 6f sprints ....blow the start and lose 2 lengths or draw bias and it can all be over so no value in shaquille price ....this is how I picture the race 
Shaquille   118 + 
Run to freedom  116 gs 
Khaddeem   116 gf 
Run to freedom would probably love just a drop of rain but is still capable on good ...khaddem is 7 yo and only seems to run his best once or twice a,season now but very Very capable when he plays his ace .....bet 365 are offering 18/1 khaddem and 8/1 Run to freedom (3 places without shaquille and spycatcher ) .... that sounds like an interesting bet now ....5pt ew both khaddem and Run to freedom 

3.00 hay 
Aztec empire  8.9 9/2 
Forza  orta   8.8 15/2 
5pt wins both 

335 hay 
Very Very classy and interesting race ....obviously shaquille will be hard to beat but no horse is unbeatable in these 6f sprints ....blow the start and lose 2 lengths or draw bias and it can all be over so no value in shaquille price ....this is how I picture the race 
Shaquille   118 + 
Run to freedom  116 gs 
Khaddeem   116 gf 
Run to freedom would probably love just a drop of rain but is still capable on good ...khaddem is 7 yo and only seems to run his best once or twice a,season now but very Very capable when he plays his ace .....bet 365 are offering 18/1 khaddem and 8/1 Run to freedom (3 places without shaquille and spycatcher ) .... that sounds like an interesting bet now ....5pt ew both khaddem and Run to freedom 

Khaadem                                      3 35 Hay/       1/40th of a pt ew      33/1          5th
Forza Orta                                    3 00 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew      14/1
Believing                                       3 35 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew      40/1          3rd
Cadeau Bella                                2 45 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew      50/1
Carrytheone                                 5 40 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew      28/1
Ice Cold In Alex                            5 40 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew      66/1
Arecibo                                          4 10 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew      16/1          3rd
Nordic Empire                              4 25 Tsk/        1/40th of a pt win      9/1
Ropry Guest                                  2 35 Asc/        1/40th of a pt ew       20/1
Escobar                                          2 35 Asc/        1/40th of a pt ew       36/1
Nibiru                                             5 05 Lep/        1/40th of a pt ew       40/1

A bumper afternoon’s racing with ITV showing ten races. I’m quite keen on First View (2.10 kempton) and Caius Chorister (3.00 Haydock) and recommend an each way double. I’m away for the next week so I’m afraid there will be no analysis for Doncaster. Good luck this afternoon everyone.     Kempton 1.35 A decent renewal on the cards here for the 1M 4F Group 3 September Stakes. Israr has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his latest win and has never raced on a synthetic surface on the racecourse and this may fall to the Sir Michael Stoute trained Bay Bridge who is the best in here by 11lb and more. The only issue with him is the trip as he’s never raced at 12F. If he stays he wins it’s as simple as that in my opinion and expect Richard Kingscote to hold on to him for a late dash in the Kempton straight.   BAY BRIDGE 1 point win @ 5/4 William Hill   Haydock 1.50 Eight go to post for this Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes and with the ground likely to be riding on the fast side looks ideal for the Richard Hannon trained Chindit. One mile on fast ground are his optimum conditions as he showed when chasing home Modern Games in the Lockinge at Newwe bury back in May when he tried to take a chunk out of William Buick’s arm when the winner came past! 7F on easy ground at Newbury last time was never going to suit and back with ideal conditions he looks the pick with current favourite Light Infantry preferring some juice in the ground.   CHINDIT 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   Kempton 2.10 The series final of the London Mile Handicap features a full field of fourteen and although the race has an open look about it I feel theres a decent each way bet here in last year’s victor First View. He loves this track with form figures of 12112 and actually races here off of a 2lb lower mark than when winning this last year under useful apprentice Christian Howarth who’s back in the plate today. He teed up for this with a slightly unlucky runner up over course and distance to Baltimore Boy 17 days ago. He’s drawn out in stall 11 which hopefully will give young Howarth a chance to take a nice position behind the leaders before striking inside the final furlong.   FIRST VIEW 2 points each way @ 6/1 Coral 1/5th 1234   Haydock 2.25 A valuable 1M 6F three year old handicap features five horses that contested the Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting a fortnight ago and despite the turnaround in the weight’s it’s the Irish challenger Denmark that catches the eye. Still holding St Leger, Arc De Triomphe and even Melbourne Cup entries this Aiden O’Brien trained son of Camelot ran a screamer to chase home the smart winner Middle Earth, finishing just 1 3/4L behind the Gosden winner. He’s up 5lb for that effort but can go one one better here with the Haggas runner Naqeeb the big danger.   DENMARK 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365   Ascot 2.35 A valuable 7F class 2 handicap has an open look about it although interestingly the stalls are to be positioned on the stands side which may give the higher drawn horses an advantage on the near side rail. James Fanshawe’s lightly raced five year old Hickory ran a blinder in a first time visor in the International Stakes when runner up to Baradar in a first time visor under Saffie Osborne. Hopefully well drawn on the rail in fourteen and with Osborne in the saddle again he can go one better today.   HICKORY 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral 1/5th 1234   Leopardstown 2.45 An excellent renewal of the Group 1 Matron Stakes with thirteen fillies and mares attending. The favourite and the one they all have to beat is Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra who’s only defeat in her five run career came when just touched off by Mawj in the English 1000 Guineas first time out this season on soft ground. She’s gone on from there to take the Irish 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and will be hard to beat today.   TAHIYRA 2 points win @ Evens William Hill   Haydock 3.00 A bumper field for the valuable 1M 6F handicap Old Borough Cup with fifteen lining up. A tricky race but anyone that saw David Menuisier’s Caius Chorister run an eye-catching sixth in the Ebor will want to be with him today. He found trouble in running but finished to some effect affect to be nearest at the finish. Off of the same handicap mark and with conditions today ideal he looks sure to run a big race for the likeable Frenchman Menuisier. Aztec Empire is dropped in trip and is the one I fear the most.   CAIUS CHORISTER 2 points each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 3.10 An interesting valuable 12F three year old only handicap that features nine promising types where the Charlie Appleby trained top weight Victory Dance may be too classy for his rivals. Thought to be a classic contender last season he’s not made that grade but in his first handicap he can take this off off of a mark of 102 now stepping up in trip in first time blinkers with William Buick doing the steering . Outsider Perfect Play can outrun his odds and chase him home.   VICTORY DANCE 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 123   Leopardstown 3.20 A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes features the enigmatic Auguste Rodin who flopped badly at Ascot and last year’s one-two in Luxembourg and French traveller Onesto. They all have chances but it’s the Roger Varian trained King Of Steel that catches my eye. Runner up in the Epsom Derby prior to an emphatic victory at Royal Ascot he ran well in third place in the King George at Ascot when last seen. This is only his sixth career start and he is the selection with the drop to 10F looking to suit as he is not short of speed.   KING OF STEEL 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365   Haydock 3.35 Shaquille will be hard to beat here in this Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup run over 6F but has been priced accordingly and a bit of each way value may lie with Karl Burke’s Showalong, who has conditions to suit and may well be very well drawn in stall 18 of 18. With the stalls in the centre it’s quite possible that Clifford Lee may drift over to the near side fence which was so beneficial in the Sandy Lane Stakes earlier in the year when Little Big Bear bagged the rail. He was only a couple of lengths behind Shaquille in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and has shown his well being with a win at York since.   SHOWALONG 1 point each way @ 25/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234      

If you have a 50-60 rated horse that runs in class 6's then as an owner / trainer you expect 1 win & 3 placed runs from every 10 & for every £100 you put into it then a maximum £20 return over those 10 runs & if you've been on yard visits & chatted with trainers they know every trick in the book but for punters , by God it's frustrating when you feel / know you've been done .

335 hay 
Very Very classy and interesting race ....obviously shaquille will be hard to beat but no horse is unbeatable in these 6f sprints ....blow the start and lose 2 lengths or draw bias and it can all be over so no value in shaquille price ....this is how I picture the race 
Shaquille   118 + 
Run to freedom  116 gs 
Khaddeem   116 gf 
Run to freedom would probably love just a drop of rain but is still capable on good ...khaddem is 7 yo and only seems to run his best once or twice a,season now but very Very capable when he plays his ace .....bet 365 are offering 18/1 khaddem and 8/1 Run to freedom (3 places without shaquille and spycatcher ) .... that sounds like an interesting bet now ....5pt ew both khaddem and Run to freedom 

345 hay 
Persuasion  8.4 4/1 
Riot      8.2 8/1 
These 2 are a little ahead ....5pt win both 

@Zilzalian   @Sporting Sam     Got me started now lol 😆  ......all makes perfect sense really .....if you run the race from a physics aspect in your head...lets take a simple analogy...if an athletics track they all started level that's what's happening in racing !!!!.....the rail horse has a big advantage if it has enough form to win (important) .....  people have done numerous studies on this over years 
One study came up with the figure 1.89 length further if you ran 2 wide 🤔....and 2.83 lengths if you ran 3 wide 
Another study said a horse than ran 2 wide ran ...2 pi(RAD +4) =12.6 FEET or an average of 1.5 lengths 8f .......3 wide ran ...2 pi (rad +8) 25.1 feet or 3 lengths at 8f ......which all seems to back up the first study ...... you lose 1.5 lengths at 8f running 2 wide .....3 lengths running 3 wide . .......obviously if the horse is 3 lengths superior to the rail horse in form to begin with it can cancel this out but very interesting 🤔 
I mean expanding it .if 2 runners ran on an athletics track in lanes 1 and 2 from an equal start then a comparison with racetime plus dist ran using formula above would give you a rating that would obviously say the horse in lane 2 is much stronger even if lost by half length etc (you could adjust this)  and adjust for weight next time  .....food for thought 

I'm fascinated by the physics of racing....sections of my ratings incorporate this and I've based speed ratings on it in past with really good success........I just find it fascinating and enjoyable ...after all if equations govern moving objects ...a horse is just a moving object 🤣

@Zilzalian   @Sporting Sam     Got me started now lol 😆  ......all makes perfect sense really .....if you run the race from a physics aspect in your head...lets take a simple analogy...if an athletics track they all started level that's what's happening in racing !!!!.....the rail horse has a big advantage if it has enough form to win (important) .....  people have done numerous studies on this over years 
One study came up with the figure 1.89 length further if you ran 2 wide 🤔....and 2.83 lengths if you ran 3 wide 
Another study said a horse than ran 2 wide ran ...2 pi(RAD +4) =12.6 FEET or an average of 1.5 lengths 8f .......3 wide ran ...2 pi (rad +8) 25.1 feet or 3 lengths at 8f ......which all seems to back up the first study ...... you lose 1.5 lengths at 8f running 2 wide .....3 lengths running 3 wide . .......obviously if the horse is 3 lengths superior to the rail horse in form to begin with it can cancel this out but very interesting 🤔 
I mean expanding it .if 2 runners ran on an athletics track in lanes 1 and 2 from an equal start then a comparison with racetime plus dist ran using formula above would give you a rating that would obviously say the horse in lane 2 is much stronger even if lost by half length etc (you could adjust this)  and adjust for weight next time  .....food for thought 

3.00 hay 
Aztec empire  8.9 9/2 
Forza  orta   8.8 15/2 
5pt wins both 

335 hay 
Very Very classy and interesting race ....obviously shaquille will be hard to beat but no horse is unbeatable in these 6f sprints ....blow the start and lose 2 lengths or draw bias and it can all be over so no value in shaquille price ....this is how I picture the race 
Shaquille   118 + 
Run to freedom  116 gs 
Khaddeem   116 gf 
Run to freedom would probably love just a drop of rain but is still capable on good ...khaddem is 7 yo and only seems to run his best once or twice a,season now but very Very capable when he plays his ace .....bet 365 are offering 18/1 khaddem and 8/1 Run to freedom (3 places without shaquille and spycatcher ) .... that sounds like an interesting bet now ....5pt ew both khaddem and Run to freedom 

Orbaan 16/1 PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 Win or Each Way / 14:35 Ascot Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   First View 6/1 PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 Win or Each Way / 14:10 Kempton Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   Euchen Glen 10/1 PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 Win or Each Way / 15:00 Haydock Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   Run To Freedom 14/1    Win or Each Way / 15:35 Haydock Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3   0.2pts e/w lucky 15  BOG 6pts invested

Lyndon B                                                         4 10 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew    12/1
Draco Pulchrac                                               6 40 Dy/                1/40 th of a pt win  101
Drakensberg                                                   7 10 Dy/                1/40th of a pt ew    33/1

Definitely an underrated physics fact .......if a horse is running 2 wide he's probably running 4 lengths further....3 wide maybe even 6 lengths further so that's like an 8 to 12 pound hcap ....that's why these horses fail more often than not .....would be interesting to find out stats for horses running 3 wide during race how often they fail to win because I bet there's a fab lay system in there somewhere 

I'm fascinated by the physics of racing....sections of my ratings incorporate this and I've based speed ratings on it in past with really good success........I just find it fascinating and enjoyable ...after all if equations govern moving objects ...a horse is just a moving object 🤣

345 hay 
Persuasion  8.4 4/1 
Riot      8.2 8/1 
These 2 are a little ahead ....5pt win both 

I'm fascinated by the physics of racing....sections of my ratings incorporate this and I've based speed ratings on it in past with really good success........I just find it fascinating and enjoyable ...after all if equations govern moving objects ...a horse is just a moving object 🤣

@richard westwood 
I’ve said this in conversation to several people including a retired jockey.
The effect is always instantaneous, the eyes start to wander, and roll and it is pointless they don’t get it and don’t want to know. You watch the results and realise “I’ve got something here.” It is just a case of putting it all together.
The Athletics analogy is spot on plus with draw bias and turning tracks the draw means related stalls can be multiple and two apart.
 
anyway
1:50
Give it up.
each way
This race has been won for the last three years by stall 4,5,6.
Jim Crowley won it two years ago from stall 4 where he is today.
He is assisted by the absence of stall six due to have been ridden by Ryan Moore for Sir Clive Cox ( deserves a knighthood).  Likely to go close.
Nemov the most likely winner would have got this on the seven year draw data he headed the several weight bands here, the next weight down and the next stall down is occupied by Give it up. There is also a mill reef entrant in the race which may change everything, but the physics point to Jim Crowley and stall 4.
***********************
I love it when people respond with laughing emojis. When Bob Monkhouse declared he wanted to be a comedian, everyone laughed….
Well……
they are not laughing now!!

@Zilzalian   @Sporting Sam     Got me started now lol 😆  ......all makes perfect sense really .....if you run the race from a physics aspect in your head...lets take a simple analogy...if an athletics track they all started level that's what's happening in racing !!!!.....the rail horse has a big advantage if it has enough form to win (important) .....  people have done numerous studies on this over years 
One study came up with the figure 1.89 length further if you ran 2 wide 🤔....and 2.83 lengths if you ran 3 wide 
Another study said a horse than ran 2 wide ran ...2 pi(RAD +4) =12.6 FEET or an average of 1.5 lengths 8f .......3 wide ran ...2 pi (rad +8) 25.1 feet or 3 lengths at 8f ......which all seems to back up the first study ...... you lose 1.5 lengths at 8f running 2 wide .....3 lengths running 3 wide . .......obviously if the horse is 3 lengths superior to the rail horse in form to begin with it can cancel this out but very interesting 🤔 
I mean expanding it .if 2 runners ran on an athletics track in lanes 1 and 2 from an equal start then a comparison with racetime plus dist ran using formula above would give you a rating that would obviously say the horse in lane 2 is much stronger even if lost by half length etc (you could adjust this)  and adjust for weight next time  .....food for thought 

I'm fascinated by the physics of racing....sections of my ratings incorporate this and I've based speed ratings on it in past with really good success........I just find it fascinating and enjoyable ...after all if equations govern moving objects ...a horse is just a moving object 🤣

Some interesting results yesterday many of which confirmed my belief surrounding the physics of racing. Hopefully based on some of yesterday’s results particularly at Salisbury and Carlisle. I can go forward and work out the odd forecast, the odd winner and maybe even the odd tricast.
I hope so anyway.

345 hay 
Persuasion  8.4 4/1 
Riot      8.2 8/1 
These 2 are a little ahead ....5pt win both