infinity

Sometimes I used to try and select horses using stats as average prize money, win rate and place rate and after searching the net about such stats I found a complete system which looked interesting so I though of sharing it. Here it is:
 
"Average prize money won per race can often be an easy and quick indication of a horse's class. This horse racing betting system makes use of that factor.

Here are the rules.

1. Look for races where every runner has had at least six starts.

2. Your candidates are the four horses with the highest average prize money won per race. Find these horses then eliminate some using the following rules.

3. The horse must be no worse than 16/1 in a reliable prepost market.

4. The horse must have run in the first four or no worse than three lengths from the winner at its last start.

5. Ignore 4. if the horse is first up. But it then must have won or run second first up.

6. Eliminate if the horse has a win strike rate lower than 20%.

7. The horse must be starting from no worse than barrier eight after scratchings. (Ignore for straight races.)

8. The horse must have won or placed at the distance of the race or within 200 metres either side.

9. The horse must have won or placed in the day's track conditions. If it is a heavy track the horse must have at least placed on a heavy track.

10. After these elimination rules if there is more than one qualifier in a race back the two qualifiers at biggest odds. If there are three or more qualifiers consider using for quinellas, trifectas, doubles. "
 
1, 2 almost identical to my approach
3  I sometimes look at horses that are between 8/1 and 16/1 as well if they fit the profile and if there aren't any others at bigger odds.
4 Interesting rule, but I don't think I will be using it.
5 I like the idea and I will be using it (Don't know if "first up" jargon is used in UK as well. This is from an Australian website)
6 I like it but I sometimes like to make exceptions, especially when the horse has had less than 15 starts.
7 Could be a good idea but I really don't know, so I will be ignoring it
8,9,10 I like them and I will be using them, except the exotic bets when having more than 3 qualifiers. In such a case, I might check out other stats as well, to help me eliminate some of them. For example I might check for the SP in previous races for the horse to get an idea if he makes good runs when he is not expected to. I also look at the average win  SP for horse, trainer and jockey and look for the same thing: if they have more wins when not expected to, in contrast to when the horse is favorite or anything below 7/1 SP. In other words I might ignore a horse that even though qualifies for all the rules, has had all wins at SP below 7/1.

Good luck guys!

B2.00 Golden Rosanna 33/1 William Hill
This is a speculative choice in a maiden, but there's been a little money for it which is always a good place to start. The main reasons why it might be overpriced though are based around the trainer and the breeding. The trainers runners usually need a run so the horses 7th of 7 on its debut doesn't worry me too much. The trainer has had 3 winners in their last 9 runners (0 for 51 prior to that) and this is only her 2nd runner at this course (the first was placed). Also the horses sire (Equiano) has progeny with a 5/16 (31%) record at this tricky course and backing them blindly would have more than doubled your money.
 

4.25 Carl - By The Boardwalk - win at 7/4 bog wm hill
Handicap chase
My selection is very much a chaser on the upgrade having won 3 of his last 4 outings and would probably have won the other one if he hadn't have fallen
They gave him a break after that spill and he appears to have gotten over it as he reappeared with an effortless 9L win at Ayr
Up 34lbs since his winning run began but I don't think the handicapper has got him yet
Best RH, has won on stiff tracks, good going and class 3
Second favourite, Enchanted Garden, looks a doubtful stayer to me and is stepping up in trip on a stiff track
Loose Chips comes here after a break and usually needs a run to put him straight
Straidnahanna could be the main danger as he doesn't look badly weighted on his novice form but he also returns from a break having been well beaten on previous seasonal debuts and he might be best going LH on soft ground
I'd be surprised if my horse doesn't go off much shorter than the currently available 7/4
 
 
 
 
 

Chep 3.55 - Present View - win at 7/2 bog wm hill
Handicap chase
My selection looked an exciting prospect last season and went off favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Ran OK finished 3rd of 18 beaten 2 lengths. The ground was against him that day as they feel he's a better horse on better ground which he gets today
Ran well on seasonal debut last season so not worried about him needing a run
My main worry is that they're using this as a prep for this years Paddy Power and he might not be given a hard ride.
 
 

Tuesday 06/10/2015
NO SELECTION
there was a selection today but it's a Non-Runner
MEDICINE HAT @‌ Catterick 04:00
 

Nottingham 2.30  TRIBESMAN  10/1  Bet365

N4.10 Roayh 40/1 Coral
This horse has shown nothing for its current yard but there's really strong evidence before that for the horse to be really well handicapped here. The current trainer wouldn't be booking the likes of S De Souza if the horse was regressive and he didn't fancy it so it's worth giving one more chance to with SDS riding out of his skin and the horse having its ideal conditions. Indeed the horse won off this trip and ground as recently as this May off a mark 3lb higher than todays under Jason Hart. The horse was heavily eased down that day and hacked up by 6 lengths. The horse has the high draw today which is usually favoured in soft ground. Providing the current stable hasn't ruined the horse (which is a leap of faith, hence the price), then it could go very close, otherwise it'll finish out the back like most of its recent runs for the stable - at 40/1 I'll take the chance.

Kempton 19.40 Dakota City 20/1 Coral
One win and a second place in 9 runs for Dakota City. Besides the positive return on level stakes and high average winnings per race due to the 16/1 priced win at Lingfield in July, nothing really stands out for this horse, but I am still not convinced the win was a lucky random thing. This might be the type of horse that only shows what it can when the odds are "conveniant" and nobody is expecting it... if you know what I mean...

7.40 Kempton
Really interesting handicap with a couple of interesting runners who are potentially better than this grade if they can get there act together.
Muhtaris previously comes from top connections, having won on the flat for Godolphin when last seen on the flat off a mark of 77 at Wolves , then made the switch to Ferguson for a career over hurdles winning on debut before running 2 very below par efforts when last seen in Feb 2014, not seen since then but switches back to flat after such alengthy absence running offlast winning mark. Yard not exactly renowned for turning fortunes around and havnt had a runner for 14 days so yard form very much an unknown, very risky.
Geordie Man is similar in that he won his maiden on debut in Oct 2012 and not seen since until 2 weeks ago when running down the field, left with something to prove now despite being completly unexposed.
Lisamour ran well latest start perhaps flattened by that result and a further 2lb rise wont make life easier.
Mikandy comes from a yard in hot form at present and he has been largely consistent all summer, handicapper being rather kind leavng his mark unchanged. Wide draw wont help today and skinny price considering he has become a regular bridesmaid.
There doesnt appear a huge amount of pace in this race and that may not suit the current favourite Magical Thomas who probably ran his best race to date when held up off the pace finishing well over CD a repeat of that would see him go close but a 3lb rise in handicap again makes things tougher.
Dakota City looks massively overpriced in my opinion. He can be his own worst enemy starting slowly which is never going to help on courses like bath and epsom where the emphasis is on speed, so his last 2 runs can be excused and prior to that he ran 2 brilliant races on the AW at Lingfield, winning impressively off 62 before running a good 2nd off 69, a return to the AW could be the key to him and only 3lb higher from that 2nd when last seen on the surface.

 
0.5pt e/w Dakota City 25/1 bet365
 

Advocaat was gone first.. Have a feeling Mourinho may walk next!

Thanks, Aidymac, for posting the odds in understandable format 

Watch out for that dreaded Europa League knock on effect with Spurs mate!

I'll take WBA, West Ham, Arsenal, Tottenham and maybe Norwich, thank you very much (for the ratings).
 
Not sure yet if I should try asian handicap as well.

Premier League Ratings ~ Top Rated Manchester City
03/10/2015Aston Villa24.3333.00 - 16.5028.67Stoke-4.3303/10/2015Bournemouth27.3331.50 - 23.5028.67Watford-1.3303/10/2015Chelsea47.0057.50 - 35.5039.33Southampton+7.6703/10/2015Crystal Palace29.3331.00 - 47.0034.67West Brom-5.3303/10/2015Manchester City59.3358.00 - 21.5017.67Newcastle+41.6703/10/2015Norwich40.0045.50 - 30.5036.33Leicester+3.6703/10/2015Sunderland17.0020.00 - 43.5042.33West Ham-25.3304/10/2015Arsenal55.3364.50 - 33.5031.67Manchester Utd+23.6704/10/2015Everton35.6736.00 - 40.0037.00Liverpool-1.3304/10/2015Swansea33.6725.00 - 49.0040.67Tottenham-7.00

Odds with Bet365

1 winner so far; Woody 10/1
Laters
 

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18:40 Wolverhampton **** Berlusca 25/1 Paddy Power

**This week will be the last weekly competition. From next week we will be reverting back to the monthly format. Details to follow tomorrow.
 
Day 1
Only one winner today.

Final Table
Infinity holds on despite lots of attempts on his lead today! Well done mate!!
Bymatrix nicks second spot with a fine winner today and Sirspread takes third place.
Can all winners send their Skrill details to Aidy also PL name and prize being claimed.
[email protected]
Prizes:
£25: Infinity
£15: Bymatrix
£10: Sirspread
 

 
 

well done Infinity !
cheers BH

Well done Infinity, Bymatrix and Sirspread for finding some great winners this week, thanks BH....

Cracking stuff Infinity, excellent!
 
Thanks again BH for doing all the Math   

Winners so far;
Bymatrix 25/1
Steve75 7/1
 
Later runners;