DanV89

Well done again Richard, you're on a roll my friend 

430 bev
Tanawar   98.71
Sovereign bounty 98.70
Qaafaal  98.65
Very difficult race and not too much confidence but qaafal has been installed favourite at 7/2 but the other two are 5 and 6/1 so rate value bets against this fav ...small stakes in a difficult race
Tanawar  2 pts win 5/1 wh
Sovereign bounty 2 pts win 6/1 bv

430 Ayr
Royal duchess   98.77
Gold flash   98,74
Avenueofstars 98,73
Tricky little race ..only nine runners and five of them have good chances but royal duchess has some decent form at this distance and claimer could be a distinct advantage today ....Gold flash is 5/1 ..,avenue 8/1....Royal duchess is priced 20/1..so far to big for such a small race ....layoff a disadvantage 60 days but still good value 
Royal duchess 5 pts ew 20/1 bet365 

No No
I was on a Mission from God Brother Billy, I was Chosen
Hallelujah !

They have let you out

Fairy 235
Blairmayne  98.86
Pillar 98.85 
Mo wonder  98.82
China eyes  98,81
Interesting big hcap ....China eyes looks nicely treated but 254 day layoff a big negative so looked over ...likewise no wonder who has decent form but poor jockey so I'm overlooking which leaves the top two who ran against each other last time in which blairmayne won easily ....top rated could be ahead of the hcapper based on that but pillar is no forlorn hope ....gets a 5lb pull and drop in distance will suit so 11/1 price tag makes him the value bet of the race but I'll go tag team to be safe 
Blairmayne  4 Pts win 7/2bet365
Pillar 2 pts win 11/1 betfred 

4.40 Haydock - Asama Blue @ 9/2 Paddy Power
Neither Gosden's or Varian's fillies set a high standard so this is within reach of a newcomer and Haggas has a nicely bred type who should go well first time up for some powerful connections. At the bigger prices nothing stands out and with the two non runners Asama Blue should go well.

6.00 Gowran Park - Reckless Endeavor @ 7/1 Bet365
Mizaah won a maiden well but has to step up to catch up with a few of these who are also open to progress. The Moore Factor flopped on better ground the last time and has questions answer now in similar conditions. Mulligatawny was 3/4L ahead of Reckless Endeavor last time but dropping back to 7f should suit my selection as he ran quite free that day and at the prices he looks the play.

630 gowran
Great wide open  98.77
The eyes have it  98.74
Espresso brasilero  98.70
Extremely open hcap ....ordinarily I'd probably avoid it but there's a lot of value in top two horses here ....the fab espresso brasilero has fair form and sets a decent standard to aim at but great wide open has conditions to suit and could run a big race also the eyes have it might prefer slightly faster ground but this is a poor race so He has a good level of form which if he holds he could run a good race ....at 14/1 and 25/1 they look fab value bets in a very open race 
Great wide open 5 pts ew14/1 bet365
The eyes have it  5 Pts ew 25/1 lads 

Great stuff Richard. 
Thought we were done when Expreso Brasileiro came but he found more to hang on. The low draw at Gowran is a big advantage.
Now lets see if we can get the treble up with Knockmaole Boy. He's halved in price so I'm hoping for a good run...

Looked at all the at Gowran races except the last two. Nothing I like in the maidens. 6.00 Reckless Endeavor looks overpriced at 7/1. Mizaah won a maiden well but has to step up to catch up with a few of these who are also open to progress. The Moore Factor flopped on better ground the last time and has questions answer now in similar conditions. Not sure he's that good. Mulligatawny was 3/4L ahead of Reckless Endeavor last time but dropping back to 7f should suit my selection as he ran quite free that day.

In the 6.30 race Expreso Brasileiro is short enough with only one win under his belt although his last race is working out well. The next few in the betting have really bad draws which are really hard to win from at Gowran. I like Great Wide Open in stall 1 who looks like he can be competitive off 77 when the remainder look poor enough. Hopefully back over 7f he'll settle better.

I liked Granny May before being made a non runner last time but the price in the 7.00 race looks short enough. Beechmount has got a bad draw and they finished on top of each other in Storm Ranger's last race so Knockmaole Boy looks the value at 10/1. 3rd in a race working out well and might improve for the run. Looks like he should be better than 68 and nothing sticks out at the bigger prices.
The conditions event at 7.30 looks tough. Not a fan of what Shamreen has done on the track and Siamsaiocht doesn't look great either. Both have Group 1 entries though. Ballybacka Queen has some good pieces of form but is too inconsistent to recommend as a bet. No fancy here.

Duffield also has a newcomer at 16/1 who has to be a bet for me in the 2.00 race at Hamilton. Ben Haslam never seems to win 2 year old races and he saddles the favourite while a few of these don't look sprinters on paper and might be better in time as a result. Might been in with a squeak here.
6.00 Gowran Park - Reckless Endeavor @ 7/1 Bet365
6.30 Gowran Park - Great Wide Open @ 14/1 Bet365
7.00 Gowran Park - Knockmaole Boy @ 10/1 Betfair
2.00 Hamilton - Uncle Charlie @ 16/1 Betfair
 

1.30 Ayr - Danielsflyer @ 14/1 Bet365

Eagle Top looks very short. He needs a strong gallop which he won't get and I'm not sure he's an easy ride at all as he doesn't look entirely straight forward as his inconsistent profile suggests. He was beaten as favourite last season and at odds on here at Newbury too and I could easily see him running 10lbs below form. I'll be siding with Carnachy who looks really progressive and should come on for that effort at Goodwood.
The only potential Group 1 horses in the Lockinge are Limato and Endless Drama and Lyons has been quite bullish about the latter so he's the bet. Not sure how Toormore isn't favourite after his first run of the season when he would have needed the run and Dutch Connection is worse off at the weights after losing this time. Kodi Bear has his first run of the season and still needs to improve to win this I would think and surely Buick turning down Belardo is a negative for him and the ground is drying fast. Limato has run well in 2 slowly run 7f races so he's not a certain stayer in what will be a strongly run contest and might come on from this so he can also be taken on. Mahsoob looks like he's finally filling his potential but although the Lockinge has been the target he looks sure to be better at 10f. Arod looks big on the best of his form but you couldn't like his attitude last time and it will be interesting to see if GM Hopkins can build on his good run. Very competitive but the one potential star miler in this is Endless Drama.

4.10 at Newmarket doesn't look great to me. There are two unexposed horses in the race one of which is the favourite who is first time out for Hannon the other is Venturous who is 2nd time out for Appleby who tend to come on a fair bit for the run. That race looked pretty strong with progressive types finishing up the order so I think he should be favourite.
2.45 Newbury - Carnachy @ 9/2 Betway
3.55 Newbury - Endless Drama @ 12/1 William Hill
4.10 Newmarket - Venturous @ 5/1 Ladbrokes (Pricewise), 4/1 Generally

5.25 Chepstow - Nazik @ 3/1 Betfair
There were some decent looking types in here that looked like they would improve for the run but the rain has brought 4 non runners including what I thought was the main danger. Nazik appeared to be outpaced early on last time probably because of greeness rather than a lack of speed. You can't get much quicker bred than this one so he might come on a fair bit from that and David Evans is a trainer I would like to keep on side rather than take on in these races.

7.10 Roscommon - Synopsis @ 10/1 Betvictor
I don't think many are well handicapped and the Lyons trained Synopsis could be by far the best horse in this. He's going to encounter much softer ground than he has previously and may not be streetwise enough for a 16 runner handicap with only 2 starts under his belt but if he handles conditions he could be hard to stop. Jockey bookings not a concern as Keane has to ride the Murtagh horse owned by Qatar. Happy with a double figure price.

Went to Chester yesterday and took a few photos from the behind the Walls on the roadside.
Its not that i'm a tight git but they won't let you in with 'pro' cameras anymore.
more on flickr and Facebook - https://www.flickr.com/photos/141528574@N02/?
 
1. View from the bridge

 
2. Chester Cup Stalls

 
3. Chester Cup , a furlong out

4. Chester Cup (winner in Pink)

5. Oaks trial, Somehow with work to do

6. Sprint race, Kimberella poised in 3rd spot

 
7. Finish of Chester Cup

 

First one was a let down but kimbrella does the business ....around 105pts returned ...nice when a plan comes together 

Slightly different tact on this one ...we are all aware of the draw bias at Chester so as this is 5f I'll rate just the bottom 6 draws as there's around an 83% probability the winner will come from one of those draws ......the ratings come out as follows 345 chester
Stall 
1  99.12
2 99.16
3 99.25
4 99.02
5 99.06
6 99.19
Looks as though this is between kimbrella and Avon breeze and as the statistics favour and improve the closer to the rail you get then it's obvious the horse I want to be on is Nicholls ..kimbrella ...he was behind the fav last time but I think that was a warm up and he's much better than that and I'd be hopeful he can turn that form around with perfect conditions.....bookies aren't taking any chances only offering best price 7/1 at the mo ...I had thought he would be bigger but still a good bet so lets see what happens ..
Kimbrella 10pts ew 7/1 will hill 
 

5.25 Bath - Indira - 13/2 -Hills

2.20 Beverley - Twizell @ 8/1 Bet365
Love taking on these Mark Johnston unraced 2 year olds in maidens. They are so overrated and you can find value by backing smaller yards who find success in these races. Twizell cost 50k and has a nice speedy pedigree for Ann Duffield who had a 2 year old winner on Friday and does well with these types. Not much else to like so hopefully this one comes in for some support.

Some massive moves for the Lyons horses today with Psychedelic Funk and Elusive Heights winning at 7/2. Couldn't have gone much better today!

Lyons' blog from earlier in the year completely through me off backing his first time out. He said he didn't have turf gallops and all his horses need the run and for some reason I never checked out his first time record (which is exceptional as is his record as a trainer in general) or if I did I completely misread something. He's massively in profit with both 2 year olds and seasonal debutantes and he has a couple of nice debutantes here at Naas after his yard really hit their stride yesterday at Gowran. He has his first 2 year old runner tomorrow in the opener at Naas and I would be keen to take on the first three in the betting who are AOB, JB and DW trained so Psychedelic Funk and Thomas O'Malley (JOB trained who is 2-2 with 2 yos) look interesting at bigger prices. That Bean Feasa is going to have her fans as a half sister to Teofilo but he's by Dubawi who's hardly known for precocious two year olds and the dam has produced nothing except Teofilo. Bit of a concern with the JOB runner is that she's bred for middle distances. So Psychedelic Funk has the right trainer, speedily bred, yard won this last year looks the bet at double figures. I just managed to squeeze Psychedelic Funk in as my Nap of the day when I woke up with a sly pick as Betway were considerably larger than the other firms and actually had drifted his price to compensate for the Bean Fheasa gamble so apologies if anyone wants to get on. I would still say 8/1 is value though as you really want to be taking on AOB and DW 2 year olds first time out.
In the 5.40 Mr Right did me a huge favour at the Curragh a few weeks ago in a handicap sprint and I think he should be favourite over Master Speaker who he beat that day. Yes Master Speaker ran into trouble in running and is just about weighted to reverse the form Mr Right is progressive and was actually eased down at the finish. It looked a strong race at the time as I mentioned that day so these two could be the pair to focus on. Master Speaker also always seems to find trouble and has only managed 2 wins under rules so I like Mr Right again.
6.10 is another 2 year old race full of potentially very good horses. It's a bit strange that AOB puts full sisters to Hit It A Bomb, Minding and Ballydoyle into the same race but I guess staying unbeaten is not really important as fillies. Blue Bahia ran pretty well on his debut and can be expected to improve for Weld while there's also been money for the Harrington horse so it's hard to have a fancy. If I did have a bet Velveteen for Lyons would be my pick but I'll watch this one. The next race looks better than Listed class on paper and I think Fort Del Oro is going to progress significantly through the sprinting ranks this season and will be the best of these. I couldn't really back one of Lynam's first time out though so I'll sit and watch.

I liked Credit The Giver in the 7.40 but preferred Maincin at the prices. Seems on a handy mark on some of his early season form from last year and is still lightly raced so more should come at a big price. In the concluding maiden Footbridge is the obvious one and will probably be very hard to beat but Freeman looks decent and Lyons has to newcomers with Keane turning down a pretty expensive yearling. Lyons says Keane's pick Elusive Heights is sharper than the same owner's Ex Patriot who ran well on debut at Gowran yesterday so I'll take a chance on that one.
4.35 Naas - Psychedelic Funk e/w @ 8/1 Paddy Power
5.40 Naas - Mr Right @ 5/1 Betfred
7.40 Naas - Maincin e/w @ 18/1 SkyBet
8.10 Naas - Elusive Heights e/w @ 11/1 SkyBet
 

For whats its worth my 2 selections at Haydock in the Scoop6 were;
2.10 Right Touch EW
3.20 Birdman EW
 
Have a good day
 
 

Well pleased with that ...yesterday only 4 qualified and accesion joint 3rd rated won 25/1 ......today 14/1 3rd from 2 picks ....and 20/1 3rd from one pick ....definately no fluke about that !!!!...very pleased ....dont forget its just been designed to pick horses that are mispriced so its obviously working perfectly 

Even though that didn't look brill I actually learned a lot from that ...,on my hcap system accession was rated 2nd ......still it spotted the value and only those 4 qualified so onto the next race !!