neilovan

I think Zheng is just as good an athlete as Gauff. For me it's what forehand Gauff brings on the day, because if it is off it is a stinker.

Day to day the performances of these players is just so inconsistent. Gauff was awful againt Krejcikova, but she was trying. A day later she plays much better, but Sabalenka plays reallys badly. For Sabalenka to lose her serve 6 times is really bad (for her level of serving). SHe won 22 of 50 1st serve points. Had a crazy number of unforced errors (47) in 22 games or more than 2 a game. That is awful tennis. The top players are so much better than the also rans, so even on their bad days they win, but against equal opponents it just seems like whoever gets out on the right side of the bed wins. For me this type of tournament feels like an absolute lottery.

Sorry, Michelsen to beat Bonzi

With the season drawing to a close, it is interesting to see those (not involved in Masters top 8), that are still playing and giving it max effort. For Shapovalov to still be in Europe shows me that he is committed and playing well. If he had checked out he would have been gone a week ago. I think similar applies to Bonzi and Norrie, who have been injured/had weird or poorish seasons. They are putting the effort in here, but will also want to keep the level for the next 5 weeks. Even if the level drops slightly, keeping your fitness is NB. The Aussie Open swing warms up in late Dec/Jan and is around the corner. Shapovalov to beat Lehechka. I think Norrie has the court craft to handle Moutet, who is just such a baby on court. It is a good match-up for him. Give Moutet 30 minutes and he will throw a strop and have a tantrum. Moutet is always playing the victim, and I'm hope Norrie victimizes him. I also like Djere to win and Michelsen to beat Medjedovic. The way Gauff played yesterday, I would give her no chance to beat Sabalenka. Just the expression on her face, and furrowed aggrevated brow, says it all. She is not enjoying her tennis. Her movement on the court was awful (looked like she was ice skating), and the body position on the forehand ... just terrible. The number of easy 2nd serves returns she hit long yesterday was insane. She must have missed 8 or 10 forehands on the 2nd serve return yesterday (she lost 11 of the 12 break points she had). It was a really poor match where 1 player was just worse than the other. I would also think that Zheng beats Krejcikova. Krejcikova moves really badly for a top athlete. Zheng will not make 45 unforced errors in 20 games. I play cross court 10's with my mates and we can hit 18 shot rallies easily ( and relatively we are useless). Yesterday every 3rd ball went 2 meters long, or in the bottom of the net, or 8 feet wide on the tram line. Some serves were 3 meters out (claose to the base line). It was absolute rubbish, and coupled with Kasatkina being flattened was an awful days viewing for the paying public.

Gotta say that Gauff v Krejicova match was just awful. One player slightly less bad than the other. Gauff must have made 35 unforced errors (simple rally balls and powder puff 2nd serve returns) that left the building. SHe was 2.4 to 10. One of the worst matches I have ever seen. Imagine paying money to watch that rubbish...

This season has just been strange. Having the Olympics is a big deal. The tennis season is already beyond hectic, and an extra tournament with a return to clay is brutal. The travel is insane, and it has just exhausted people. They have 6 weeks off now, and then it is off to Australia. Some players are hardly showing up. Kvitova, Pliskova, Garcia, Vondrousova, Stephens. And the results are totally inconsistent and very difficult to predict. It's not like football where you have 10 players to carry you when you have an off day. In addition, footballer quality is so subjective and difficult to quantify. Tennis it is easy. You don't perform ... you lose. Marcus Rashford, shows no form, plays poorly most weeks and collects 300K every monday. For me most WTA matches (ranking 25-80) are a complete lottery. Anything can happen. There has also been a momumental swing in top 100 WTA players. Tatjana Maria, Yulia Starodubtseva, Zeynep Sonmez, Olivia Gadecki, Sonay Kartal, Suzan Lamens, Camila Osorio, Kamilla Rakhimova, Renata Zarazua to name a few. Who are these people? . Thery are all relatively new, inexperienced and inconsistent. Difficult to bet on these people with any consistency. It is literally win 1 lose 1 which is just brutal for bettting. Personally I find football much easier to bet on. Liverpool are excellent, and you can oppose Man United most weeks, and the 3 teams at the bottom of the EPL are consistently poor. It is way more difficult in tennis and the odds are atrocious.

Impossible for him to lose to Moutet ... was nearly mission impossible 7. Had a close game facing breakpoints at 2-2 3rd set. Some low priced favorites that I like today Humbert to beat Giron. Giron has played well last few weeks but Humbert is solid, and at 'home' . Rune to beat Bublik. Rune has this wierd annoying style on the court but he is talented. Bublik just too inconsistent and hit and miss for me. Shelton to beat Cazaux just a weird court that Shelton played on yesterday. Small and cramped, not an ideal venue for an ATP 1000 masters event. Both players hit the roof with a lob yesterday. Good for the Paris Masters to be moving to la Defense next year. I think both him and Ruud are looking at their games and thinking 'can this game beat Alcaraz or Sinner'? And thus, they are experimenting and trying to add to their skills. Hence their inconsistent results. You look at other players who's games have peaked (Medvedev, Zverev, Hurkacz) who cannot beat SInner at their current levels. They are not even trying other stuff, so you have to give Ruud and Rune some credit. Two medium bets I like is Fritz to beat Draper. Fritz not spectacular, but solid and consistent in quite a narrow game plan (that works). Mpetshi Perricard to beat Khachanov. Perricard is serving bullets, and looks full of energy. I expect at least 1 tie breaker in this match, so 21+ games is also good. As a longer shot, I think Griekspoor will run Zverev very close. Lost in 3 the last time they met, losing 2 tie breakers. Odds of 3.6 are good.

A few things to consider. Players are at the end of the season. Most are running on fumes. Paris courts are quick, so the big servers should get plenty of free points. Players still in with a chance of making the year end finals will be motivated. 2 upsets for later today. I think Casper Ruud could lose to Thompson. He is not playing well. Thompson seems to have overcome his desire to beat himself to pieces and if he keeps his cool will have a solid chance. I'm not a Tsitsipas fan. He has such a weak backhand (at high pro level), and a solid game plan by Tabilo will test it. The margins between winning and losing are so small. A couple of points here or there, or playing the big points well. As for the Moutet v Shelon match I would take the 18 to 100 on Shelton. Impossible for him to lose to Moutet. Shelton has a canon and Moutet has a spud gun. It will take Moutet 20 minutes to implode. Draper may also be a little vulnerable against Lehecka. Maybe some fatigue both mentally and physically, with a possible letdown after last weeks win. It gets into a 3rd set I'm 100% on Lehecka.

And it is not that difficult. If you can throw a ball, you can serve. These are/ or are meant to be athletic people. Gotta laugh at the Fernazez v Zheng match, Fernadez finally getting on the board after being flattened 6-0 inside 25 minutes in the 1st set. She's the 35 best player in the world, and sometimes she just plays like she's ranked 230. Probably get drilled 6-1 in the 2nd. Imagine paying money to watch that rubbish, and arriving 20 minutes late. Zheng will probably fall asleep in the 2nd set.

These low quality matches are not worth betting on IMO. All they have is inconsistent performance. These players are playing at this level, because relatively, they are not very good. Danilovic v Sawankaew case in point. 6-4 6-4 scoreline. Sawankaew up 4-2 in both sets. Manages to blow her serve 4 times at the business end of the set/s. Its a joke. Get on the practice court and hit 600 serves a day for a month. Hit so many that you can serve half asleep and not looking at the ball. Building up your shoulder strength , muscle memory and confidence ... and you only get that from practice. And serving is like sitting on the golf range and practicing. You don't need anyone else to hit the ball back. As much as I don't like Sabalenka with her ridic grunting on the court, I have to give her credit for sorting out her 12-15 double fault a match serving, and turning that part of her game around. But it is a weird year. An already long season feels longer. Players look out on their feet.

Some weird stuff on the court at the moment. Danilovic playing Parry odds around 1.8 and 1.9 for both. Should be a close match, with two equal players, yet the scoreline is 6-1 6-0. This is just one of many bizarre results. Been watching a lot of Basel and Vienna. Is it just the sound from the indoor court, or are players hitting the ball harder? Tiafoe and Berrettini hit the cover off the ball in an excellent match. Tiafoe had him, serving at 1-0 3rd set with a break, drifted off and handed him the match. I thought Mensik was very very good against Popyrin in his previous match. He returned the ball incredibly well. I think he beats Kecemanovic quite easily. Some of the shot he hit against Popyrin where outstanding, and his return of serve was excellent. Dimitrov v Machac is an interesting one, that should be less serve dominated. I think a very close match probably going 3 sets. Still not convinced regarding De Minaur. I think he will struggle with Cobolli, who also hit the skin off the ball in his previous match. When players are hitting the ball so hard, it makes for a herky jerky match, with no rhythm (maybe the intention). I don't think that this helps De Minaur, who wants to dominate by grinding an opponent down. Rune v Stricker is interesting. Rune is not playing great IMO. All over the place, slightly inconsistent and not focused. Stricker played very well against Griekspoor. He has talent, and the crowd on his side may just annoy Rune (who looks brittle to me). Add the sneaky left hander angles and this could be a tough afternoon for Rune. Stricker worth a bet for the win here. Wawrinka just gets run over by a superior force against Shelton. Just too much Shelton serving power, which let's him have a free swing on his opponents serve. Also Stan had a difficult match yesterday against Mannarino, and at his age the recovery is not that quick and his legs could be slightly heavy. As a low priced "banker" 😗 this would be my pick. I thought Baustista Agut was super solid against Ruud yesterday. His unforced error count was very low, and this combined with mental strength and fitness makes him a very tough opponent. I think he may just grind Shapovalov down, even though Shapovalov may start fast. Just growing up and playing on clay at sea level, gives a player incredible conditioning and mental patience. I think Bautista Agut wins here in a war of attrition. As for the WTA, at this moment I would not touch it with a barge pole. Super inconsistent and anything could happen.

Finally Parks gets the ball rolling with a win. For me an interesting matchup today is De Minaur v Struff. Struff coming back from a bad hip injury. But he can play. Great athlete, tall, big serve, excellent movement for a big person. He was on a roll last season. I think de Minaur is playing with a slight tweak. Does not look 100% injury free to me. Did not play in the far East (which indicates recovery and injury). Struggled with Carbellos Beana and Gaston in Antwerp, and I think he might lose again today. Maybe the safer bet is the over games here. Generally when rusty the serve stays OK and the returns drop off, so you get longer sets. Which Franscesco Cerundolo shows up today v Tsitsipas? I quite like to oppose Tsitsipas as he has some glaring weaknesses. A relentless server pounding his backhand return into the dust will be rewarded. I think this is quite a good match to bet in-play, especially if Cerundolo makes a good start (it will motivate him) . If he starts badly he may just "check-out". Def interesting and a wait and see.

Mensik playing incredibly. Hardly made a mistake, returning really well, and hitting the cover off it. Not saying that every tiebreak needs to be won, but 40% would be a fair return in relatively close matches. My runners must be around 20% which just kills it, especially in a sprint. At least watching the tennis beats the heck outta Crystal Palace and Notts forest. Those 2 teams could play for a year and it would be nil nil.

If you are taking perricard to win at this stage it makes way more sense to take the under 26.5 games

Not surprising, but when both guys can't return the ball it is quite a big lead.