neilovan

For the Top 100 players these ATP and WTA 1000 events and the majors are where it is at. Think of it like this 4 X Major 1st round is $300K. 10x $35K is another $350. SO in 14 tournaments (14 weeks of travel) you walk away with a minimum of $650 000. SO motivation is high, monetary rewards big. Players will bring th best version of themselves to these events (fitness, focus and preparation). I expect favorites to do well as the stakes are high. All favs to win Miami Pavlychenkova Linette M. 1.6 2.3 Linette lost 1st round last year in both Indian Wells and Miami ( Townsend and Tsurenko). You would expect her to beat both those players. She lost 2nd round in Toronto and Cincinnati and 1st round at US Open (Jovic). So on her 2024 USA swing she won 2 matches and lost 5, which is not great. Miami Cirstea C. Cocciaretto E. 1.45 2.7 Miami Minnen G. Masarova R. 1.4 2.9 Miami Lui C. Fruhvirtova L. 1.72 2.1 Lui is playing to her highest level in the last 18 months and looks a very good price. The one I can't pull the trigger on (price too low is Siniakova to beat Yuan. Yuan losing 8 of her last 9 matches on hard court. For whatever reason she is way off her peak. 1 DOg to win in qualifying. Miami Q Atmane T. vs. Blockx A. 1.85 1.90

It is just a slight knee jerk reaction to a small losing streak, in a system that has been winning. The counter intuitive thing is this. If you expect your system to return 15% and it is slumping to 8%, you need to be betting more, as it will revert to the norm. The opposite is also true. If you have been winning and returning 22%, you should be betting less as the correction occurs In Miami Quali there were 8 picks, 6 of which lost. My gut instinct is that favorites should not be backed in qualifying or at the challenger level. Players are there because the quality of their tennis dictates it. Either on the way up, the way down, coming back from injury, inconsistent or just not good enough to break into the top 100. Qualifying and Challenger level probably leans towards betting on underdogs. So my feeling is that I have been swimming against the current.

Not losing (favs is winning 8% but it was winning 20%), just in the short term it seems to be super odd. Will continue my system but just not post, as I don't want others losing.

Simply not possible to see to see 5 out of 7 favorites, under odds of 1.55 lose, in 7 bets. You could try and pick 5 winners in 7 at odds greater than even, and you would fail 10 times in 10. Taking a break. Something just not working here. Too bizarre.

Miami Prize Money Winner $1,124,380 | Runner-up $597,890 Semifinal $332,160 | Quarterfinal $189,075 | Round 4 $103,225 | Round 3 $60,440 Round 2 $35,260 | Round 1 $23,760 | Q2 $13,795 | Q1 $7,155 So to get 2 qualifying wins is a big deal, as it is worth $16K . Players should be motivated. -------------------------------------------------------- Miami courts resurfaced before the start of the tournament ... court surface (Laykold). These courts should be slightly faster than Indian Wells. Favs to win Miami Q Klein L. vs. Shevchenko A. 1.5 Miami Q Begu I. vs. Bondar A. 1.5 Miami Q Birrell K. vs. Dart H. 1.57 Miami Q Nardi L. vs. Atmane T. 1.4

Just terrible results. 4 selectioins win 1st set and lose in 3 which is odd.

Miami Q Inglis vs. Bondar A. 1.67 Miami Q Marino R. vs. Fruhvirtova L. 1.57 Miami Q Birrell K. vs. Sasnovich 1.57 Miami Q Sawangkaew vs. Masarova 1.45 All favorites to win ------------------------------------ Two dogs to win Miami Q Stardodubtseva J. vs. Lepchenko V. 2.15 Miami Q Pera B. vs. Stakusic M. 2.20

Easy afterwards.

For me, it is not often that you see the 4 best players in the world (on form), in the semi-finals of a tournament. Normally at this point, two/more of the top 6 seeds has had a bad match and is gone (so Gauff and Pegula). But on current form it is very difficult to go against any of the 4 semi-finalists. Aussie Open champ | Aussie open runner-up | Swiatek who can be incredible | Andreeva who is playing the best tennis of her life. Swiatek in her last 17 matches on hard, won 14 lost 3 (Andreeva, Keys, Ostapenko) Keys has won 17 of her last 18 matches (won Adelaide, Aussie Open ... 1 loss to Tauson) . Highest level. Andreeva with 14 wins in 17 also playing at her highest level (2 losses to Sabalenka, 1 to Sramkova). Bad losses to Sabalenka. Sabalenka also 14 of 17 wins (3 loses Tauson, Alexandrova,Keys) . Tauson with 2 wins here which is eye opening. I wish you the best with your bet, but for me these 2 matches are far from the 'low hanging fruit'. These are very difficult to predict, and it would be easy to get both wrong. In addition, Andreeva beat Swiatek the last time they played. Ithink if Andreeva was playing Keys and Swiatek v Sabalenka the bet may be easier to win.

Two bets, both favorites to win. Just taking as a double which is around 1.80 Indian wells Andreeva M. vs. Svitolina E. 1.4 3 Phoenix challenger Fonseca vs. Struff JL. 1.33 3.1

The dessert sounds Tasty !🍦🍉 but I know what you mean 😁 Would just like to get away from the butt-kicking 🤢 I am getting at Indian Wells. Indian wells Draper J. vs. Fritz T. 1.78 2.0 (Draper to win)

Indian Wells been a tricky few days. I'll rather just revert back to system picks as they seem to be more reliable. 6 FAVORITES to win Cap Cana challenger Schoolkate vs. Fognini F. 1.6 2.2 Cap Cana challenger Altmaier D. vs. Lajovic D. 1.7 2.2 Phoenix challenger Safiullin R. vs. Eubanks C. 1.45 2.55 Phoenix challenger Fearnley J. vs. Duckworth J. 1.4 2.7 Phoenix challenger Holt B. vs. Hijikata R. 1.5 2.4 Phoenix challenger Walton A. vs. Gaston H. 1.57 2.25 2 UNDERDOGS to WIN 3/11/2025 Indian Wells Medvedev D. vs. Paul T. 1.75 2.05 3/11/2025 Phoenix challenger Bublik A. vs. Vukic A. 1.72 2.00

Wow. Awake to a trainsmash. Nice write up but the predictions were rubbish. Nobody wins. Such a bad day of results. Kasatkina and Navarro 😗 At least you can only lose a bet once. I expected players to struggle with their serves. But my expectation was that the better, mentally tougher players would handle it and prevail. Arnaldi to win was a good price, but he got destroyed, in conditions that should suite him. He won 8 return points in 45, or less than 1 point every return game (9). WTA no 8, Navarro loses her serve 7 times in 10 tries. Goes to pieces after losing 1st set breaker, getting hammered 6-1 2nd set. Kasatkina plays a solid 1st set and is 3-2 with a break in the 2nd. Then loses her serve 5 times in a row and disintegrates. Paolini and Cristian 4-4 3rd set playing a 9th game that has had 24 points in it. Bizarre. Paolini just falls over the line to win it. I just cannot get a grasp of what is going on in this tournament.

Amazingly Keys butchers the 2nd set. What's that, 5 match points to win in straight sets? She is 5-2 up in the breaker and loses 6 of the next 8 points. Some of this stuff is hard to digest. But she wins at the end so it's OK.😄

It is interesting that the resurface of the courts has actually made them slower. Normally there are fine grains of sand added to the final paint of the surface. Certain events affect it. Rain, lots of play and feet on the court, how it is cleaned and how often. But these courts are grainy, new and relatively slow and bouncy. A few things happen. The balls get fluffed up much quicker, and go through the air slower. I think balls are changed every 9 games (first change is 7 because of warm up), so this normally happens later (in the series of 9 games). But this happens earlier on outdoor, slower grainy courts. So in the WTA where matches are not generally serve dominated, the server finds it even harder to hold serve. And players that rely on a stream of free'ish serving points, get a helluva shock when the opponent starts making more and more returns. And the more balls that are in play, with longer rallies, the quicker the balls fluff up, and the worse it gets for the server. So betting in-play on serve breaks, as the balls get older, there are increasing returns (more chance to be broken). What also happens (to those very good servers) is that some are just not 100% fit. They are so used to a stream of soft points, that they don't need exceptional fitness levels. They can't grind out a string of long points, because they don't have the fitness to do it (Rybakina, Mertens). And somebody who is a grinder knows this, and will use it to their own advantage. Indian wells Arnaldi vs. Nakashima 1.85 1.91 Indian wells Keys vs. Mertens 1.36 3.1 I give Mertens almost no chance of winning her match against Keys. She is heavily dependent on her serve effectiveness and it is nullified here. The rest of her game can't make up the slack. The 2:0 Keys (1.91) is the bet for me here. I think similar of Vekic v Navarro. Again, Vekic over reliant on serve freebies, and she won't get many v Navarro, who is in very good form. Navarro who is a really good athlete/competitor will love these conditions and should win easily. Another that I expect to win is Kasatkina over Samsonova. Kasatkina has quite a strange game style, but she has fantastic hand-eye coordination. You can see that she played from a very young age, and developed her own game, before being coached. She likes to hit a looping topspin, that clears the net by 4 foot. It is a brutal ball to deal with on these courts. Ball is gripping and bouncing and is heavy, and difficult. These conditions are made for Kasatkina. Last match is Paolini to beat Cristain. No-contest for me. Paolini just too athletic for her opponent, in conditions that will suite her well. No dominant serves here, in a clash of similar game styles. Paolini is just miles better at doing it. I am just going 1 unit of Navaro, Paolini, Kasatkina all to win, and 1/2 unit on each as individual bets. Keys and Arnaldi seperate bets for me but 2.5 units each.