Bobby Vegas
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Posts posted by Bobby Vegas
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Doncaster seem to have been priced up based on their 3-0 win at struggling Plymouth as I think they are far too short at 2.1 against league leaders Shrewsbury. That win was only their 2nd league of the season. Their home form is worse with no wins in 4 including 3 draws.
I’m still waiting for Shrewsbury to fall away but they managed another decent result with a draw at home to Blackburn on Saturday. Given they conceded in the 85th minute they’ll probably be disappointed with that result.
Marathons 3.88 seems too big for a team in such good form.
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Surprised to see Mansfield as big as 2.6 (Bet Victor and Bet365) away to a struggling Cheltenham team who have lost 5 of their 9 games so far. Mansfields results so far haven’t quite justified their status as pre-season favourites but performances have still been good and they’re now starting to get their rewards with decent victories over Lincoln and Cambridge in the last week. They actually find themselves in 5th and I think they’ll be too strong here.
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Scnuthorpe to win @ 2.55
Blackburn to win @ 2.4
QPR to win @ 1.67
30pt treble please
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That Wrexham price is interesting. Looking back over their previous games I see they've had 5 clean sheets in their last 6 games. Seems like a solid bet which should be much shorter than the 6.7 that's currently on offer with Marathon. Only pain is that I can't get any more than £40 on it!
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Brentford seem too short for me being priced at a best priced 2.14 to beat Bolton away. Both teams are winless so far in the league so I’m not sure how Brentford can be priced so short. A lack of confidence for both teams has to be a factor here and Brentford are in a completely different situation to Middlesbrough who turned Bolton over a fortnight ago at a best priced 2.2. Whilst that result would have impacted on the odds offered now I don’t feel comfortable backing a team at 2.14 who have yet to win in 8.
Admittedly Brentford’s performances have probably warranted a win so far whereas Bolton’s winless run is probably a fairly true reflection of their performances. They’ve failed to score in 5 of their 8 games and have only scored 2 in their last 7. In terms of shots it’s 81 vs 86 against them so the fact they’ve conceded 16 and only scored 4 shows that they’ve got problems at both ends of the pitch.
I think Brentford have still got a better side and would still make them favourites but with home advantage I think the odds should be a bit closer together. I fully expect Brentford’s form to change soon but just think they are a bit too short here. Bolton are 3.6 to win with Marathon Bet but probably a more sensible bet would be to cover them with DNB @ 2.64, again with Marathon Bet.
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Shrewsbury continued their impressive early season form with another narrow victory, this time bottom team Oldham last weekend. They were somewhat fortune to nick a 2-1 win against an improving Oldham side and Oldham’s 18 shots to Shrewsbury’s 11 pays homage to this. Oldham hitting the post when it was easier to score at 1-1 meant Shrewsbury were able to hold on for their 7th win in 8 games. Interesting every single or of those wins has been by 1 goal. They’ve also conceded as many shots on their goal as they’ve had on the oppositions so whilst they are converting their chances at the moment, you have to wonder when this will catch up with them. Those stats certainly lead me to thinking that their dominance of teams isn't typical of a team with 22 points from their first 8 games. It must be noted that they’ve won all 4 at home this season with three of those being 1-0’s – the most impressive being against a strongly fancied Wigan side.
Shrewsbury come up against a Blackburn team that has yet to get fully up and going this season. A surprising home defeat at the weekend to AFC Wimbledon saw them lose their third game in seven and end a run of 4 consecutive wins. Their away form has been good since defeat in their first game of the season at Southend and they've gone on to record impressive wins at Bradford, Rochdale and Scnuthorpe – all of which have been achieved with clean sheets – so they shouldn’t feel daunted by taking on a team with such impressive early season form. When you look behind the actual results you’d be surprised to see Shrewsbury keep up their current form and I think they’ll face a tough test against a Blackburn team that has been impressive on the road.
Whilst I strongly fancy Blackburn to win this one, the 2.44 on offer from Marathon is probably a fair price given Shrewsbury’s very good start and good home record. I will however still be backing Blackburn to take the 3 points here in what will probably be a tight, low scoring affair.
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If ever there was a team that could make hard work of a game where they're priced 1.3 then it is West Ham. They've got a history of struggling through these kind of games (look no further than Accrington at home last season), even at home so I wouldn't be touching them at that price - not even against the hapless Bolton. Ahead of a big derby game against Tottenham at the weekend, I'm not sure they will even field their strongest side, so at 11/1, backing Bolton at 11/1 (Bet365) could give you a run for your money despite their terrible league form.
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Exeter win @ 1.83
Blackburn win @ 1.67
Fulham win @ 1.83
40pt treble please
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Fulham have had an unbelievably hard start to the season. Their first 4 games saw them up against, excluding themselves and the promoted teams, the top four teams from the previous season. The next two games weren’t much easier against in form teams Ipswich and Cardiff. These were then followed by Hull’s visit last night. So it’s hardly surprising that they’re not currently sat in the play-off places. Whilst they’ve drawn four games so far, they’ve only lost one and performances have been good. Their fixtures now get a bit easier so I think we’ll start to see them move up the table in the next few weeks. I think that surge up the table begins this weekend with a visit to a struggling Burton side.
Burton sit just outside the relegation zone largely because of their home victory over Birmingham. They did brilliantly last season to survive but just seem to have lost something this year. A good example of this is the amount of shots they’ve had and conceded. After 7 games this season they’ve had 44 shots but have had a hefty 134 on their own goal. Compare this to the same stage last season, they’d had 96 shots and only conceded 89.
I like to root for the underdog but it seems as if Burton may well find themselves this season’s Rotherham. They found themselves well adrift from anyone last year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same happen here to Burton. So with that comparison in mind, I look at the kind of odds that were offered for teams away to Rotherham last season. When Fulham played them in April, you could only get them at a best priced 1.44. Rotherham were well and truly gone by then but I think it gives a good indication that the 1.91 on offer for Fulham won’t hang around for long.
I’m not a hug fan of backing away teams at quite so short odds but think there is still value in this price at the moment.
6pts Fulham to win @ 1.91 with Betway, Sporting Bet and Ladbrokes (boosted)
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Last year’s National League Champions Lincoln have adapted a lot better to life in league 2 than Forest Green have. They currently see themselves sitting fifth in the division with 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat. Other than their 4-1 win over Carlisle, every game has been close with no more than a goal between all the sides. Early season favourites Mansfield haven’t been able to have everything their own way so far but their performances have been good. Whilst they’ve only won 2 matches so far, they have drawn 4. A lot of those they could have gone on to win on another day. I see this to be a very competitive fixture between two evenly matched teams and I can’t pick a winner. So given I expect it to be tight, it makes sense to go down the middle and plump for the draw although I think at 3.3 there’s probably not a huge amount of value to be had.
Wycombe are overpriced for me at 3.3 (Bet365) at home to Luton. They’ve suffered 1 defeat in 7 and come into this game off the back of two consecutive away 0-0’s to Newport and Mansfield. Luton haven’t been able to carry on the form of their opening day 8-2 win against Yeovil and come into this game still without an away victory. The draws against Lincoln and Mansfield are nothing to be ashamed of and it was only a very late goal that saw them defeated at Barnet. They are however too short for me at 2.37. I expect this one to be another very tight game and think the 3.6 with Betfair for the draw definitely offers value.
Swindon are perhaps a bit too short for me at a best priced 2.3. They sit mid table and are only there virtue of their good away record. Whilst they’ve won 3 games already this season, their home form has been the complete opposite. The early season draw at home to Exeter now looks good but this was followed up with a 3-0 defeat to Crawley and a 4-1 defeat to Barnet. Stevenage come into the game sitting seventh in the table and undefeated away from home so far this season. I’m not sure they’ve played the toughest of opponents so far but their undeafted away form has seen them come away with 2 wins and a draw. Swindon are too good to go much longer without a home win but I think Stevenage could make this another difficult game and could be a bit shorter than the current best price of 3.34 with Marathon.
I can’t believe that Exeter will go off at anything longer than the evens they are currently at - they should be significantly shorter than this. They’ve carried their impressive form from last season into this season and a late winner at Barnet on Tuesday night saw them to their sixth win in seven and 3 points clear at the top. Crewe currently sit outside the play offs in tenth place but have been helped by 5 of their 7 games being at home so far. On the road they did manage a 1-0 victory at rivals Port Vale but were on the other end of the same score line against Grimsby. A win here for Crewe would put them in with the early pace setters and I’m not quite sure performances have merited that. Therefore I think Exeter are good value here at evens with SkyBet and Betfair.
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I like the look of Celtic at 14/1. I have to admit though I can remember them beating Barcelona a few years back and somehow had it in my head that they had a few other notable scalps as well. They don't really though other than a 3-3 last year against Man City.
There is no comparison between these teams so in reality this should be a walk over for PSG similar to most of their league games. The difference here though is that they don't experience the atmosphere of a Champions League night at Celtic Park every week. They definitely act as the 12th man.
Celtic have confidence from an impressive period under Brendan Rogers. Don't get me wrong I expect PSG to win here but if they don't perform to their best they might find this tie more difficult than the odds suggest.
2pts Celtic win @ 14/1 Bet365
- Sir Puntalot and JJG
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Sorry, just seen I've missed the kick off of the Mansfield game. Please swap them for Fleetwood to win @ 1.8.
Thanks
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Middlesbrough to win @ 2.00
Mansfield to win @ 1.67
Exeter to win @ 2.4
30pt treble please
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There’s quite a lot I like the look of this weekend in the EFL so will try and narrow my bets down later tonight. I’ll start with Championship and will try and add my comments on the other divisions if I get time.Just one win so far, in five games, and 12 goals conceded has meant it’s not been the easiest of starts for Daniel Farke at Norwich. It can only be the fact that they are playing Birmingham that they are 1.91 to win this one. Birmingham’s performances have probably been a bit better than their results though and they will be thinking they could have had a few more points on the board. They’ve made a few new singings including the impressive Jota from Brentford and with Redknapp in charge I like the look of them at 4.5 with Bet365.QPR have had tough fixtures so far and have pitted themselves well taking 7 points from their 5 games. Ipswich stormed out of the blocks winning 4 of their first 5 games. They had their pants pulled down last time out against Fulham but have goals in them. They’re currently carrying a few injuries but I like them at odds of 4.2 with Bet365.Bolton are winless in 5 games and in truth, probably haven’t deserved much better. Early season favourites Middlesbrough haven’t had everything their own way so far but should have too much for Bolton here. I don’t think I like them quite as short away from home so may leave them at a best price of 2.1 with BetVictor.Wolves have impressed so far this season and good wins against Middlesbrough, Derby, Hull (and Southampton in the cup) have seen them storm up the table. I’d probably expect them to continue the good form in front of their home fans. Opponents Millwall have only had 1 win so far (an impressive 4-0 win vs Norwich) but this disguises the fact that performances have been good. They should probably have more points on the board and I’ll watch this one with interest for future betting opportunities on them.Final potential one for me in the Championship sees the impressive attacking talent of Sheffield Wednesday take on Nottm Forest in the late kick off. Despite an embarrassment of riches up front, they haven’t scored more than once in any of their five games. This will no doubt change here against a Forest outfit whose performances probably haven’t been as good as their 3 wins would probably suggest. Despite this though, Forest are 4.85 to win this one with Marathon Bet and I could be tempted because of Wednesday’s early struggles in front of goal and the fact Forest have still managed 3 wins without playing particularly brilliantly.
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Derby vs Hull
Two clubs that I would certainly expect to be around the top half and probably flirting with the play offs come the end of the season. Both clubs, after 5 games, sit on 7 points – Derby with a goal difference of -2 and Hull’s +5. The reason for the big difference has been Hull’s ability to score goals. I don’t think there will be an awful lot between these two teams so it’s Hull’s ability, so far, to score goals that makes me fancy them more at 4.2 rather than 2.02 for Derby, who I think are far too short.
3pts Hull to win @ 4.2 (Marathon Bet)
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Not a great deal I fancy this week so will have a go at a small treble instead.
I fancy Charlton to beat an Oldham side that are still struggling to score goals but 2.1 doesn't represent value IMO so won't do it as a single.
Morecambe tend to get off to good starts to the season then fade off badly. They're already looking like they are playing as if it's the second half of the season so I think I'll back an Accrington team that I fancy to do well this season. Difficult to judge whether 2.25 is value after so few games so won't be doing this as a single either.
Lastly I'm backing my own team which means this accumulator is doomed to fail. Gillingham have yet to win in the league but all 4 games so far have been close. I expect that win to come soon and I like the 2.8 on offer for a Gills win against a Shrewsbury team I think is over performing.
Using Betfairs Acca Edge so having 2pts on a treble at 9.13.
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Accrington to win @ 2.25
Charlton to win @ 2.1
Gillingham to win @ 2.8
20pt treble please
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Oxford to win @ 1.91
Watford to win @ 1.90
30 point double please
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Ipswich vs Fulham
Whilst I’m not going to read too much into both teams midweek cup games due to both teams making wholesale changes, Fulham’s home defeat at the hands of Bristol Rovers won’t have helped the confidence of a team still without a win this season.
In all fairness to Fulham, they haven’t actually had the easiest starts to the season. Home games against Norwich (1-1) and Sheffield Wednesday (0-1) and away games against Reading (1-1) and Leeds (0-0) pitted them against 4 teams that finished in the top 8 last year.
Fulham finished last season strongly and the 2.25 best price for them to beat Ipswich seems to have been largely based on this form. They’ve played 5 games so far this season and whilst they haven’t conceded more than a goal in any game, they have failed to find the net in 3 of their 5 games and only netted 1 in the other two. That’s not the kind of form that would see me backing them at those prices.
Personally I wouldn’t have them any shorter than 7/4 for this one. So with that in mind I think there is value on the other side. I’m surprised to see how this one has been priced up. It’s hard to imagine that Fulham would be much shorter had they actually won a few of their games this season.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one finished as a draw so the 3/1 on the draw looks a bit on the high side to me and the 13/2 for a 1-1 has appeal as well.
However I still think Ipswich are overpriced, especially given this fixture is being played at Portman Road. To me, they’ve got one of the best forward lines in the division and already this has helped them win a few tight games. They are certainly finding goals easier to come by than Fulham have done so far.
I think this will be a tight fixture so will cover myself with an Ipswich win and 1-1 draw
Ipswich to win (3pts) @ 3.34 Marathon Bet
1-1 draw (1pt) @ 7.5 William Hill / Bet Victor
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Oxford vs Shrewsbury
Early top of the table clash between Oxford, sitting in 5th after 2 wins and a defeat, and Shrewsbury, who currently sit 3rd in the league with a 100% record.
I had Shrewsbury down for relegation at the start of this season so am somewhat surprised to see them start the season so well. On closer inspection though, their 3 wins came in games where I’m not actually surprised to see them win – even relegated teams will win games. All 3 opponents so far sit in the relegation places and whilst it’s still early, and Shrewsbury’s wins are actually a reason for these teams being down there, I don’t think the opposition has been that testing. Their opening day win against Northampton actually only came in the 90th minute and all victories have been by 1 goal.
Saturday will definitely be Shrewsbury’s toughest game so far. Oxford were expected to do well at the beginning of the season and have started off well. They would have been expected to beat Oldham (24th) in the opening game but followed it up with an impressive 3-0 defeat of Portsmouth. In their last outing, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat at Scnuthorpe and there is certainly no shame in that given Scnuthorpe’s home record last season. By all accounts, Oxford put up a good fight and should have nicked a draw right at the death.
I see a big difference in the quality of both squads and with home advantage I strongly fancy Oxford to take this one.
Oxford’s price has pushed up past evens and I think that’s a very good price for a team I expect to be challenging for promotion come the end of the season.
Oxford to win 5pts @ 2.02 MarathonBet
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Fleetwood win @ 2.00
Ipswich win @ 2.80
Cambridge win @ 2.30
15pt treble please
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Surprised to see Accrington at 3.1 with Bet365. The next best odds in the market are 2.9 and I think that's probably a better reflection of where they should be. Possibly out to those odds because of an away defeat to Yeovil last time out, who had themselves suffered an embarrassing 8-2 defeat on the opening game of the season.
At home though, I think Accrington will be a tougher proposition. Already this season, they've beaten Colchester and Preston. Whilst I expect Mansfield to do well this season, I think they'll find this one of their tougher away days.
I'll have a small bet of Accrington winning @ 3.1 with Bet365 (1pt )
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2 hours ago, PokerWolf1 said:
Liking the look of the Ipswich price. I don't expect them to keep up their good start and be in the running come the end of the season but they are scoring goals and Brentford have got off to a pretty torrid start. Can't understand them being favorites. Bit of value in that IMO.
Looking forward to the big one this weekend @StevieDay1983!
Completely agree with this. Can't see why Brentford are the favourites here. Admittedly Ipswich haven't played that well in any of their wins but they have that winning habit having won 4 out of 4 so far this season. They've also got in form strikers in Waghorn, Garner and McGoldrick which is priceless.
This same fixture was played in early March last season and Bet365 had it was priced up as;
Ipswich - 2.38
Draw - 3.4
Brentford - 3.2
Now I'm not sure of the form going into that game but you can bet Ipswich didn't have the form they currently do. Massive value in this one IMO.
So with that in mind I fancy Ipswich again @ 2.88 Marathon Bet (3pts)
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Another game where I don't think there is a lot between the teams is Birmingham vs Bolton.
Surprisingly it's been a fairly quiet transfer window so far for Harry Redknapp. He's made no secret that he hasn't been able to do as much wheeling and dealing as he would have liked. Without these signings I'm still unsure how they will fare this season.
I expect Bolton to be towards the lower end of the table come May but given Birmingham haven't greatly strengthened from last season, manager aside, I'll be on the 37/10 available with Marathon bet.
2pts Bolton to win @ 37/10 with Marathon bet
UK Football Predictions > Sep 26th & 27th
in Championship Predictions
Posted
There’s a few others I fancy but have done them in an accumulator.
Cambridge were unlucky in conceding a late goal at Mansfield on Saturday that saw them leave with nothing. I think they’ll be around he play offs come the end of the season and should have too much for a Forest Green team that have looked poor defensively this year.
Luton have snuck up the table without performances matching their opening day thrashing of Yeovil. Morecambe look a poor team though and I expect Luton to come away with the three points.
Mansfield - as mentioned above.
Under Gareth Ainsworth, Wycombe look a solid team at this level. I expect them to be around the play offs come the end of the season. They led Luton last week going into injury time but amazingly managed to lose it. I think that kind of performance should be good enough to beat a Crewe side that see, to be struggling. Their confidence won’t have been helped by a 5-0 home thrashing to Carlisle.
Finally in league 1, Bradford look good to beat a Fleetwood team that don’t seem to be doing as well as last season. They’ve won 4 of their 8 games but have lost 3, the most recent at home to Southend on Saturday. If they won their game in hand they’d be a point outside the play offs but they don’t seem to have found last years consistency yet. Bradford on he other hand have carried on last seasons form and stand 3rd with just the one loss to Blackburn - there’s no shame in that.
All 5 in an accumulator pays back 30.1 with Bet Victor