Ashtee
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Posts posted by Ashtee
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Sydney @ 2.25 & +2.5 @ 1.99
Thought I was looking at odds wrong way around because was prepared to take some odds-on. Rangers have lost just the one at home (Towns) and knocked over Sydney (20) & Perth in consecutive weeks but both had off nights IMO. They back up on no rest and are prone to run out of fizz . As we know, Sydney are good at coming from behind and also the better team IMO.
Bendigo -6.5 @ 1.90
Have had a couple of players hampered by injury but seem a better outfit (than had been) of late and I think they'll be ready for Boomers this time. Penaluna doubtful to play and Madgen still battling (by reports) injury, so I suspect Boomers could find it hard to maintain the fight they've showed of late.
Canberra - Perth OVER 150 @ 1.90
Canberra are deceptively higher than they might seem IMO. They are 10-6, Perth 9-8 and both have played a decent share of low teams and usually go over in similar company. Hopefully Lynx will get their act together off a couple of poor shooting nights (Canberra's defence can be awful). Probably won't be helped out by any OT, however!
Added Dandenong - Sydney UNDER 150 @ 1.91
Drifted to a number I couldn't resist.
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Tried Adelaide at odds, 4.50 & +8.5 @ 1.90
Signs they came out of the break with reset focus, winning by ten over United, who showed signs on the night also. Vukona in doubt and Webster hampered by a back complaint during the week. Perhaps they will bounce back to form but they've been scratchy of late regardless of the travel. Trying 36ers at some odds!
New Zealand - Adelaide UNDER 176.5 @ 1.94
Neither go this high too often, particuarly in similar company, although Breakers have been higher (4-5) at home. Had to take the under!
Added, Townsville @ 3.20 & +6.5 @ 1.90
Fourth game in eight days for Cairns, while I doubt Townsville won't put up a response to a poor game.
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New they were gone once jumped to 0-7 lead!
![:\](/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
Tonight, Adelaide-Dandenong UNDER 148.5 @ 1.90
Adelaide #3 is perhaps skewed by who the've played, while lowest ranked Rangers are 2-8 after the opening month, depicting the smothering defence they play.
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Watched Canberra live last week and much of the team were forever in two minds about what they should do, rather than just going bang with obvious plays. The good thing for me was they have that much talent that they magically cover anyway.
Tonight, Perth @ 2.20 & +2.5 @ 1.91
Bit of weighing up to do with Sydney's tenacious spirit yielding a 3-0 run over wounded opposition in each. They should be keen to get off to a better start tonight but I've a lot of respect for Perth program. They've been strong on the road and I've marked them a slight favorite.
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Tonight, Perth @ 1.70 & -2.5 @ 1.90
Two Cairns players still face fitness test to be back from injury but, regardless, Perth travel early on better preparation and motivation than last meeting.
Tomorrow, Illawarra +1.0 @ 1.90
Have developed into a serious title contender, so no point jumping off, at the deal. United should be tough at home but still appear to have deficiencies.
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Sydney Kings @ 2.09
Drop in grade, at home and extra day break makes for an excellent opportunity to sniff out the win.
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Canberra +12.5 @ 2.00
Have lost just one in last six games by more than seven points. The break should do Canberra no harm and with Bendigo still hampered by injuries the margin is at least a strong chance to be within single digits again.
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Jumped on the price drift in this one tonight, backed the well drilled home team. Perth @ 1.79
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A few plays tonight;
Illawarra -3.5 @ 1.90
Can be dangerous taking on Townsville at the spread at home and hopefully Hawks will be up for it off the triumph in NZ. However, I kept coming back to the run-home form & momentum Hawks are in and and look through the depth of their squad to what the likes of Martin, Weeks, etc. bring if they do get in trouble.
NZ @ 1.67
NZ got through on sheer firepower last game, while their intensity possibly is a little off at present. No Starks should prove a factor and I expect Breakers to have too much talent.
Cairns - New Zealand UNDER 169.5 @ 1.93
Rank #5 & #6 and both usually end under in similar company. Cairns are 6-10 despite playing a lot of high teams. The absence of Starks hurts Taipans firepower. This number has gone but I certainly would have taken a couple of points less.
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Tonight, Melbourne -4.5 @ 1.90
Jumped in a little soon but United carry forward refound confidence, while Kings look too undermanned. Childress surely will need games under his belt.
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Sydney - New Zealand UNDER 171.5 @ 1.92
Seams some trend for higher scores in the short time under Connolly and recent are 9-2 but have played a lot of high teams. More often than not the likes of NZ have kept them low. NZ are 5-11, although 5-7 since Webster, who played all three meetings for 1-2. Sydney needing to perform without Kazzouth and NZ wanting to respond from a loss. I still suspect a defensive game is more likely.
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Oz BB, I was up eight units (one unit is usual outlay on a game) by about the end of October, then steadily set fire to ten. Now I'm +5 all of a sudden.
I guess that's where money management fundementals are so highly important and the experience of knowing that good and bad runs are just part of the caper.
It's interesting regards the eveneness. If I just woke from a three month sleep and had a stab guessing the ladder based on rosters, I'd surely have Canberra somewhere in the hunt, even with the news Jackson was down. Four of the five starters are WNBA players or draftees.
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That'd be a win for anyone on the later h'cap, right?
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Do you have action on this?
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Today, Illawarra @ 4.00 & +7.5 @ 1.90
Cruised against Sydney Friday, with one eye on this and are looking a really strong unit at present. I'm expecting much better intesity than previously road fixtures.
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Don't tell me she won't do fouling, for the first time ever!
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That about sums it uop because Caps defence is usually non existant.
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30 minutes ago, Dog&Under said:
Watch these mental midgets roll over and lose by 25 to this two-man Melbourne team...
Thank you, again! The messiah .
I could seriously do with OT in Adelaide to get this Total over.
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She's made her free throws but I don't know what's up now!
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Oh, I see how I've worded that. I'm not 1000% sure but I expect it's doubtful given the prognosis that she needed complete rest for at least the couple of rounds. I meant it in the sense that her absence is maybe due to be felt across a weekend.
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Yes, the one thing that's tipped me away from taking Under 154.5 @ Melbourne is the history between these two.
Bit slow to snaffle some of the early offers and wasn't sure when exactly to jump on Adelaide but;
Sydney @ 2.28
Madgen factor could proove decive considering they seem to be having just a par form weekend. Kunek just going too, so Sydney edge them for quality IMO. Marked Sydney 1pt favorite.
Adelaide -6.5 @ 2.00
Should be keen to atone for slack start last week. Face a weary, dispirited opp who, at the same time, could also bring extra fight but am happy with the offer.
Adelaide - Canberra OVER 148.5 @ 1.91
Air conditioned venue and total too low for both of these IMO
Got some play on the market later in the day & 6.0 would have given me a half unit win on the 'cap. But, hey, I'll take seven! 
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Hmm, probably Townsville 3.20 was OK to try but not certain I assessed the 6.5 bit too well, given Cairns present form and the fact it wasn't a great shock that Townsville were poor again.
Tonight, Sydney - Illawarra OVER 179.5 @ 1.90
#1 & 2 ranked, who are more likely to have no problem reaching 180. Three meetings this season were 186,186 & 185. 181.5 currently available which I was prepared to take.