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Ashtee

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Posts posted by Ashtee

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Yes, agree, I often like to apply a factor in favour of home team when weather is rough, despite that often some blowhard will point out that stadium is air conditioned. 

    Was not sure I should have passed up the 2.04 Pinnacle this morning but just got set Adelaide @ 2.25 TAB :loon. Doubt it will last too long given there's a sizable arb.

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    You must have a great mind! ;)

    Canberra @ 4.30 & +8.5 @ 1.91

    Angry but tired opp, however Caps, in lucky venue, have been getting closer to breaking through. Stallworth could be up for a special effort and helps height problems, despite doesn't know teamates.

    Melbourne +4.5 @ 1.90

    Was actually a high standard defensive performance from Rangers last night but Perth looked flat in the warm up to me and a little down on mojo during game. Showed their quality in last term and are clearly better than Rangers IMO. Angry opponent on no travel for Boomers to deal with but obviously Boomers well rested and hopefully won't get ahead of selves off couple wins. Just made them marginal fave and thought Perth would more likely be the play before I looked. Lynx win over SEQ has possibly driven that.

     

     

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, binomial said:

    must feel a little ripped off that the $11 shot didn't even provide a sweat. nice call, wish i'd seen your play before the game i probably would have tailed.

    Yes, really did want the whole last minute thing where every update is one horrid :loon. Maybe it's just me but it's amazing how 27pts up & 0:03 remaining you still hang out for 'Game Complete' to come through.

    Was close to trying Bendigo too, had they drifted to >5.50, or did I miss that?

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    For similar reasons:

    Adelaide +16.5 @ 1.90 and some @ 11.00

    Do catch Sydney angry and better rested than previous times they met but themselves reportably have been up & about at practice off a loss they were unhappy with. Are competitive enough to keep within sixteen of most teams. Bowen seems to be playing, from what I've gleaned.

    Perth @ 2.68 & +3.5 @ 1.90

    I've marked them 1.90 fave despite fatique concerns but they do have a strong recovery program in place. NB. Game is being streamed.

     

     

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Even with losing the height of Stallworth it was an out of character result from a team I'd emarked as dependable.

    Hate to get philosophical when we should be busy smashing up the furniture but times I've been to a casino sooner or later you see a table with twelve blacks in a row. Doesn't mean someone playing red is choosing badly. Wiping say eight units (standard match bet = 1u) in three rounds (I've torched six in 1.5 rounds) is nothing new to me over the years. Probably a couple regret bets that maybe didn't feel so right but I know to just keep doing what works.

    The fact is that when I've got a decent result from a season sometimes it's consistant monthly wins but more often it is like four of the six months just treading water or losing some but it's the other two random months all of a sudden that the damage is done.

    Having said that I'm still four units up on the back of bumper October. Just that NBL is giving me strife.

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Yeah, I'll often go straight to TopSport for what I couldn't get on at Pinnacle. They were just prepared to lose $500 1.5hrs before the Perth game last night.

    Sportsbet set low limits but will invariably oblige requests for a higher stake but I don't try to push it. They might be displaying a limit of say $46 on an early line but so long as I just ask a couple of hundred they'll nearly always accept. I know from AFL that they will usually be quite welcoming when requesting late bets over their displayed limit.

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    I was up four units with them this season, although dropped a couple during AFL, so was starting to wonder but obviously an early limits policy has come in. Not sure if they still take sizable late bets, do you know? It was only 1.5hrs before the game yesterday that they limited my Perth @3.80 bet (they risked $500 but just risked $100 on another that was an early line).

    TAB (NSW/Vic) have got mean all of a sudden too. They have such a huge market share, yet a few times this season have FULLY rejected my bets, then used the information to move their lines. Perhaps I should send them a bill.

    Traditionaly Australian bookmakers have welcomed winners as a way of honing correct odds. I actully don't mind books having an early limits policy, providing they'll let you have a dip later, unlike the dothering farts running some of the Euro books. Thumbs up to bookmakers like Pinnacle and Sportsbet in this regard. Pinnacle limits on WNBL are now double what they were a couple of years ago.

     

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Dog&Under said:

    Heh, I should create a meme about that: "I don't always stay up late to get the best line, but when I do my bet only gets partially accepted"

    got a bit less than half my standard stake at the -2, had to grab the remainder at -4

    Is that TopSport? They limited a couple of my bets this round which they didn't seem to do previously.

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Just from live scores, obviously, but why, in a defence game when they've got a roll on and succesfully getting stop after stop, in a one basket game would Graf direct that they foul for the entire last 50secs??? Someone let me know the day when (prob hasn't got many gigs left) it finally achieves her something :$:eyes!!

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Biggest test so far for Perth considering only top-4 opponent has been a downstrength Sydney in Rd1

    Sydney -3.5 @ 1.93

    Dandenong still experiencing a few injury problems. Providing the well coached Sydney hold their motivation they should proove the superior team.

    Canberra @ 3.81 & +7 @ 1.93

    Melbourne have some injury concerns too and an improved effort last week could carry forward but I give Canberra a more than sneaky chance off better intensity last week.

     

    NBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Just sat there and laughed last night! When your having a rough trot and Khazzouh is close to nailing the 3pt shot the night before, it was a given that steindl hits on a second chance attempt. Never safe taking on Townsville at the spread - well done, binomial!

    I took NZ Beakers, also. 2.45 is a big price about the best team in the comp at present. If Webster is subdued or can't live up to 39pts then others are ready to step up.

    NBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Yeah, it feels like Illawarra are due and possibility Kings could be slightly flat off after some strong efforts and also adjusting to Childress back. However, I couldn't ignore that Illawarra have been due every week, yet continually prove to be too soft. The form Sydney are in was enough for me to take 2.79 on them.

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