Ashtee
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Posts posted by Ashtee
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Involved both games today too;
Townsville -13.5 @ 1.90
Flogged on the track after they only showed up to unfurl the pennant last week. Should take Canberra's very best to stop the bet covering.
Bendigo -5.5 @ 1.92
Hopefully they've got the bad season opener out of the system for now and they should be strong at home. Tough for Perth to travel and back up on a short turnaround.
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In my punting career I'm dead set 0-45 for bets decided with 4.6secs to come up with some sort of hail mary beyond the arc play that decides the bet. William Hill was the only bookmaker on the planet offering 7.5, otherwise I would'nt have been on.
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Illawarra @ 2.70 & +4 @ 1.98
Could expect a responce form Sydney despite less rest but this is still an even money game IMO.
Cairns -7.5 @ 1.90
Not interested in taking anything less than this deal but I'd expect a strong response from Taipans, while Townsville are bound to be a little weary from their schedule.
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Sydney -4.5 @ 1.91
Are doing a bit of galavanting about the country but impress and should have too much firepower.
Perth @ 4.5 & +8.5 @ 1.94
Veal a last minute call up for Melbourne after a couple of medium quality players are out for this. Maybe cannot expect her in the peak of her game and in sync with a team already adjusting to squad changes. Perth are finding their feet as unit themselves as evidenced by nothing special in the preseason and helped out by an understrength opp last week. Quality import Laney was hampered by illness in that. There deep bench looks an asset and I give them a strong chance as just the slight underdog.
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Sydney bet didn't feel altogether right, despite it looked good on paper.
![:\](/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
Tonight, Perth -6.5 @ 1.90
Unlike Townsville, Breakers form doesn't apppear to be heading anywhere.
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Tonight, SEQ @ 3.25
Give impression are well drilled team and must be better chance than this IMO.
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Sydney -6.5 @ 1.91
Form line doesn't look good for Townsville after the breakers result and they are doing all the travelling. Sydney were super impressive without Childress and 6.5 doesn't seem a lot providing they produce an honest home effort.
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I did see somewhere (Twitter/FB?) this morning that Lisch is confirmed out, Vukona travelled for NZ but is still proppy and sounds doubtful. Still fancy the line of thought that Breakers form is fairly dodgy.
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Marc, the Sportsbet employee dropping in on us, I notice.
Swords just touched down a few days ago, so I'm not getting too carried away despite Sydney's strong Perth effort short on depth. The trip could take the edge off hem too. Odds are around where they should be, with Sydney the one who is a little too short IMO. No bet.
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Pulled a one unit profit out of the first week.
I've taken Illawarra @ 2.00 tonight. Demonstated the talent in a couple of tough road assignments last week, albeit losing both, so will be a lot more comfortable at home. Breakers haven't looked like they deserve to be a 2-1 team as yet and the early market seems based somewhat on reputation.
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Finding things a little difficult to get a handle on things when half the teams have 10 new players who i have never heard of.
Dandenong +2.5
Dandenong under 149 2u
From what I have read Bishop has a max of 10 minutes and Jackson montgomery and zavecs are out.
Dandenong have about 10 new players so hard to see the chemistry being there.
Lat 30secs a bummer for you. Hang in.
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Cayla George/Francis having a letdown game off her stella WNBA season. Needing someone to step up for us in the last.
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Market looks about right on the Perth game after Perth backed in from 1.90. No bet.
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Dog&Under will think they've graded the bet wrong when he logs into his account tomorrow.
I knew she was an improver but when I was talking about Rangers deep bench a factor I wasn't really thinking about Tenaya Phillips, let alone that she'd be the actual match winner.
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Thanks for that Binomial. I did note how you helped me out.
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My thinking is Adelaide could be ok with Mitchell, Ruef and Bowen shouldering most of the load.
Looks like they are going tire as games goes on due to no bench, unless they can recruit someone.
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And again, its dead by quarter time..
Not sure why I bother with this league anymore
It seems like they've fallen for the trap of banking the opp's outs.
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Dandenong @ 2.20 & +2.5 @ 1.92
Dandenong won all three preseason games and the chemistry is reportably a strong point relative to a half rebuilt team. Will be interesting to see what a couple of Canberra's mid-thirties players have got left, while the immediate upside of Dandenong's youngs appears to counteract that of Canberra. Dandenong with a deep bench and this is where the Caps task gets most difficult. I'm expecting a Dandenong win.
Melbourne -13.5 @ 1.97
The well coached Boomers look much too strong at home, despite a few players missing final preseason game with minor injury niggles and Cole out. Adelaide's roster runs seriously thin quickly. Appears to be big problems for Adelaide to stay competitive tonight.
Townsville -8.5 @ 1.90
Could expect a fight from Bendigo tonight - Snell usually has a 13 from 15 night off a bad one but they're equally likely to make it a complete road disaster off no rest and with two of their best underdone. More than likely Townsville's firepower will still be good enough to cover.
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Seems a sloppy effort to go with all the off season drama. Still, had to take them at the odds.
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Got on early Bendigo @ 2.65 & +4.5 (now into 2.20)
Musn't get too carried away with Bendigo's apparent advantage on paper, with couple of best slightly underdone but I still believe they are no worse than evens.
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Re: WNBL 2014/15 Yeah, as I said, 6.5 was my cutoff. Was kicking myself last week for not taking an in-play under at HT. 103 in a Bendigo game was always going to come to a screaching halt. Been somewhat tempted by the under today but the thought of perhaps some late fouling is just enough to tell me to leave it alone.
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Re: WNBL 2014/15 Grand Final: Townsville -6.5 @ 1.90 One where I'd probably expect a better showing from Bendigo but another blowout is possible too. Bendigo, despite a big build up, perhaps lose to Sydney had they got anything less from Kelly Wilson. Big difference between the two in season motivation. 6.5 @ 1.90 is on my limit and hopefully, if it is tight, fouling can help the bet cover.
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Re: WNBL 2014/15 Preliminary Final: Sydney 4.50 & +9.5 @ 1.90 Obviously I'm either lying or took it early but I do believe this is around an even money game. Bendigo's scrappy season has been evident the last three, which includes the Melbourne win they pinched. Not the lead-in you usually see from a team destined for anything and I'm not convinced a big build up for this will necessarily do the trick. Sydney virtually haven't had the full side together since early season when they topped the table - Cox & Reuf make a huge difference. I'm anticipating momentum rather than a letdown from Sydney and are still great value at 3.75 & +7.5.
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Re: WNBL 2014/15 Who's back between Macleod and Reuf is probably relevant too. Both were forecast to be back this week. I'd think Sydney are probably the one vulnerable to getting smashed off a high?? Got on today's OVER @ 161 before it blew out (mindful that I'm -8 units on TOTALS :spank). Not enough in tomorrows h'cap for me but did take Townsville straight up at odds from 1.56 to 1.45.
NBL 2015/16
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Cairns could be ok if Tragargh, Worthington and Laughton start playing well but they look pretty terrible at the moment to me.
Yeah, agree. They come up well on paper, looked quite promising in the opening game but haven't impressed overall. Townsville probably fatigued late that may explain some of the bumbles.