Xtc12

Day 17
Staking Plan  3, 2. NR, 1, 4, 5,   for a total outlay of  15 Pts
We had 2 winners
Paradwys 1 Pt @ 9\4 returned 3.25
Major Valentine 5 Pts @ 2\1 returned 15
Total Returns for the day 18.25. for a day 17 profit of 3.25 Pts
Total Loss for month: 322.61 Pts
Total Loss since start of June: 236.73 Pts
Total Profit since tips started August '16 :  5261.21 Pts

7 losing Naps on the bounce, I don't think that has happened before, ever!
Apologies
PS: We are having lots of other winners, honest (about 7 or 8 today)

Amazing statistics everyone!
I have downloaded the results published here ( in the tisps page) from August 1, 2016 to 30 June,2017.
Its a big spreadsheet but i have worked myself around it and here are my findings:-
There were a total of 11350 races in the aforementioned period.
Following my method suggested in another thread above, I have excluded the E/W suggestions, and all suggestions priced less than evens.
Therefore, i avoid odds which are too short or too long.
i then calculated what would have happened if i had placed a 20 pt bet on each of the remainder selections.
Out of 11350 races i found 7235 "qualifiers".
5378 bets lost BUT there were 1855 Winners, a percentage of almost 35%!
This leaves us with an amazing 57030 PROFIT!
This in a period of ten months means an average of 5700 monthly.....
wow!

19.30 Killarney - Lucca - 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Bet365

19.30 Killarney - Lucca - 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Bet365

Day 11
Staking Plan  3,    for a total outlay of 3 Pts
We had 1 winner
Bogsnog 3 Pts @ 5\1 returned 18
Total Returns for the day 18 for a day 11 profit of 15Pts
Total Loss for month: 341.96 Pts
Total Loss since start of June: 256.08 Pts
Total Profit since tips started August '16 :  5241.86 Pts

Yesterdays Result: 21 Bets, 4 wins, + £30.96, + 15.5 pts.
MTD: + £79.20, + 39.6 pts.
Todays Sels:
Wolverhampton
16.25
Mezmaar
  1
21.00
Wolverhampton
15.25
Keenes Point
  1
17.00
Brighton
20.45
Whiteley
  1
15.00
Uttoxeter
19.35
Avidity
  1
8.00
Pontefract
16.10
Broadway Dreams
  1
4.00
Uttoxeter
20.05
Wintour Leap
  1
5.00
Uttoxeter
20.35
Dawn Missile
  1
10.00
Pontefract
16.40
Mont Royal
  1
6.00
Wolverhampton
14.25
Noah Amour
  1
13.00
Pontefract
14.40
Dapper Man
  1
7.00
Wolverhampton
17.25
Our Boy
  1
26.00
Uttoxeter
20.35
Moidore
  1
11.00
Pontefract
16.40
Golconda Prince
  1
5.00
Brighton
18.45
Sparkle
  1
7.50
Pontefract
15.40
Tavener
  1
8.00
Wolverhampton
15.25
Cryptonite
  1
8.00
Wolverhampton
14.25
Arctic Angel
  1
5.50
Brighton
18.45
Robins Purse
  1
13.00
Wolverhampton
14.25
Favourite Treat
  1
5.00
Wolverhampton
14.55
Oswald
  1
8.00
Uttoxeter
19.05
Bere Haven
  1
8.00
Pontefract
17.10
Exclusive Waters
  1
7.50

1st - Mostly jumped well but often jumped right, made all, soon clear, hit 9th, very easily, unchallenged
29\06\2017    1    3    Muhajjal    Lost    
30\06\2017    2    2    Londinium    Lost    
01\07\2017    3    1    Justanotherbottle    Won    2.5
02\07\2017    4    4    Wicklow Brave    Lost    
03\07\2017    5    5    Bruny Island    Lost    
04\07\2017    6    6    Barraquero    Won    2.75
05\07\2017    7    5    Dawerann    Lost    
06\07\2017    8    6    Ivan Grozny    Lost    
07\07\2017    9    7    Braqueur Dor    Won     1.28
08\07\2017    10    7    Character Onesie    Lost    
09\07\2017    11    8    Work In Progress    Won @ 1.73  Returned 13.82
 
Total Stake 54 ..... Total Returns 41.57    
Total Running Stake/Profit
Total Stake: 62 / Total Returns 69.71 / Running Profit 7.71

14.45 Ayr - Regal Mirage - 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 WHill

14.45 Ayr - Regal Mirage - 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 WHill

14.45 Ayr - Regal Mirage - 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 WHill

14.45 Ayr - Regal Mirage - 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 WHill

Day 7
Staking Plan  3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9  for a total outlay of 51 Pts
We had 3 winners
Buble  1  Pt @ 11\10 returned 2.10
Braqueur 6 Pts @ 1\4 returned 7.50
Spark Plug 9 Pts @ 4\1 returned 45
Total Returns for the day 54.60 for a day 7 profit of 3.60 Pts.
Total Profit for month: 118.11 Pts
Total Profit since start of June: 203.99 Pts
Total Profit since tips started August '16 :  5701.93 Pts

20.40 Beverley - Dandilion - 1 Pt Win @ 13\2 Bet365

June/July
Bet 1
25\06\2017    1    Free Bet (3)    Back to Baloo    Won     5\1    Returns 15  Profit 15
                                
Bet 2           Bet  Stake              
26\06\2017    1     3           Patanjali    Lost                    
27\06\2017    2     2        Av A Word    Won @ 2\1  Returned  6
Total Stake 5 ..... Total Returns 6       Profit 1     Total Profit 16
                        
Bet 3                                   
28\06\2017    1    3    Pixeleen    Won @  2.38       Returned  7.14      
                               
Total Stake 3 ..... Total Returns 7.14      Profit 4.14     Total Profit 20.14                                    
Bet 4
29\06\2017    1    3    Muhajjal    Lost                
30\06\2017    2    2    Londinium    Lost                 
01\07\2017    3    1    Justanotherbottle    Won  @ 2.5     Returned 2.50    
02\07\2017    4    4    Wicklow Brave    Lost                  
03\07\2017    5    5    Bruny Island    Lost                  
04\07\2017    6    6    Barraquero    Won @ 2.75    Returned 16.5    
05\07\2017    7    5    Dawerann    Lost                  
06\07\2017    8    6    Ivan Grozny    Lost                  
07\07\2017    9    7    Braqueur Dor    
Total Stake 39 ..... Total Returns 19    
Total Running Stake/Profit
Total Stake: 47 / Total Returns 47.14 / Running Profit 0.14
This is where we stand so far. I tried taking a screenshot of bets but it just doesn't seem to work for me. Yes I know that people will say Oh he started with a 5\1 winner, that was why I used the free bet. I will take early prices whenever possible from Boylesports so that will be never probably. Last day of the month will be a stop loss. Other than that the rules will be as in other topic  "Making a living out of  Punters Lounge". The start bank was 100 Euro which I will extend  to a maximum of 496 whenever required. If a profit of 496 is made I will withdraw it and start over again until 496 is made and I will then double the stake.
Oh just see how it works ?           

Bet 4
29\06\2017    1    3    Muhajjal    Lost                
30\06\2017    2    2    Londinium    Lost                 
01\07\2017    3    1    Justanotherbottle    Won  @ 2.5     Returned 2.50    
02\07\2017    4    4    Wicklow Brave    Lost                  
03\07\2017    5    5    Bruny Island    Lost                  
04\07\2017    6    6    Barraquero    Won @ 2.75    Returned 16.5    
05\07\2017    7    5    Dawerann    Lost                  
06\07\2017    8    6    Ivan Grozny    Lost                  
07\07\2017    9    7    Braqueur Dor  Won @ 1\4   Returned 8.75  
Total Stake 39 ..... Total Returns 27.75    
Total Running Stake/Profit
Total Stake: 47 / Total Returns 55.89 / Running Profit 8.89

I think for the time being I will stick with the Naps as it is only one bet a day. A bank of 496 will cover me for having no winners in any month. Probably two accounts should cover me even though the highest bet will be 31 Pts. If a bookmaker cannot take a bet of £31 he should not be a bookie. . As BH says :
the stakes are not that high really. Doing the naps using the last day as a stop-loss is the way to go.
The thing about placing the bets manually is that you would need to get over the fear of losing and trust the system (probably easier said than done when we had a loss of 408 pts in a day).
These losses can come at any time and the danger is when you start a system, will we come in at one of these rare loss days, which would also be a disaster for the confidence. 
I will continue to log the stats for each day here and will start a new thread for the Naps, back dated to the 25th June.
My profit depends on you BH, keep them coming. 
 
 

No pressure then?
My selections are purely down to a ratings method I use which without giving too much away does bias towards class more than anything. The Nap is a selection that is well ahead of the other runners in certain criteria and still represents a bit of value when the market is formed at around 6pm the day before.

Answering the second part of your query first; The stake are not that high really and I reckon you would get the bets on with Betfair, minus a bit of commission. Its not like some loss recovery systems where your putting 4 figures on.
I tend to agree with you about actually being brave enough to keep going during a long losing run. I personally would find this difficult hence why most of my staking plans have a stop loss. Maybe this could be implemented? I'm sure some punters would have no problem in splitting the emotion side from their punting lives.

I find this really interesting. Only problems I can see is that a) placing the bets manually would be impossible as your psyche wouldn't allow you to! and b) you'd have no bookie accounts left after a couple of months.
The only way (imo) that this can work is if its automated on Betfair. Any Excel buffs out there that can write a trigger spreadsheet for Gruss?
The other thing is bank size. If a set of circumstances can happen in theory, then one day it surely will. With that in mind I think a bank of 3000 pts would be required. Having said that, I'd give it a go.

Ok I have finished the naps going back to the start of March. I have used the same staking strategy but I have calculated over the full time of the naps and also monthly. The difference is that if I treat it as a complete bet there is a chance that we could break the bank while if I treat it as a monthly bet the last day could be used as a stop gap reducing our losses. 
To use the system as complete we would be sitting on a 166.65 Pt profit from March 1st until Dawerann running in Perth today. At one stage it took us from the 24th May until the 13th June to make a profit of 2.55 Pts. (Don't forget when you make a profit you start again).
If we take it monthly and use the last day as a stop gap, in case we are on a losing run we would have a profit of 161.73 Pts. This would have included a loss in May of 6.52.
The monthly totals were as follows:
March : 51.76
April : 51.10
May : -6.52  (This includes a loss over the last 8 days of 21.7 Pts)
June : 65.39
I have actually started backing the naps since the 25th June and will continue doing it monthly. I will take the last 6 days of June into July. Thanks BH and Punters Lounge Horse Racing Tips, keep picking the winners - onwards and upwards. Hope you won't mind if I start a thread for the naps backdating to the 25th.
 
 
 

Day 5
Staking Plan  3, 2, 1, 4,  5, 5, 6, 7, 8,  for a total outlay of 41 Pts
We had 2 winners
Welcome Ben  5  Pts @ 6\4 returned 12.50
Spice Girl  8 Pts @ 9\2 returned 44
Total Returns for the day 56.50 for a day 5 profit of 15.50 Pts.
Total Profit for month: 98.61 Pts
Total Profit: 184.49 Pts

No probs mate, it makes interesting reading.
...and i'm sure plenty of members find it useful.

Day 5
Staking Plan  3, 2, 1, 4,  5, 5, 6, 7, 8,  for a total outlay of 41 Pts
We had 2 winners
Welcome Ben  5  Pts @ 6\4 returned 12.50
Spice Girl  8 Pts @ 9\2 returned 44
Total Returns for the day 56.50 for a day 5 profit of 15.50 Pts.
Total Profit for month: 98.61 Pts
Total Profit: 184.49 Pts

Day 4
Staking Plan  3, 2, 1, 4,  5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 13, 13, 14, 15, for a total outlay of 151 Pts
We had 5 winners
Another Eclipse  6  Pts @ 2\5 returned 8.40
Sharp Defence  10 Pts @ 7\2 returned 45
Barraquero  15 Pts @ 7\4 returned 41.25
Vosne Romance  13 Pts @ 2\7 returned 16.71
Degooch  15 Pts @ 9\2 returned 82.50
Total Returns for the day 193.86 for a day 4 profit of 42.86 Pts.
Total Profit for month: 83.11 Pts
Total Profit: 168.99 Pts