Dylan
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Posts posted by Dylan
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Kim Clijsters vs Victoria Azarenka – Clijsters to win 2.05 at Bet365 (1 unit) Odds are understandably tight and whilst it was hard to pick a winner in this one I have plumped for Clijsters. Since coming back into the game Clijsters has met Azarenka on 6 occasions winning 4 of them, and on hard courts specifically it is 4-1 to Clijsters. Whilst the most recent winner in a match between these pair was Azarenka, I think the H2H record tells us that Clijsters is the better player and if’s she fit and in form then she should be able to beat her opponent. She clearly is in form and having seen off Li Na and Wozniaki I have no concerns about her injury either, however bad it is she can clearly manages it well whilst on court. I think the pressure on Azarenka to reach WTA #1, and her lack of experience in getting past a semi at any major event could be telling here as well as her occasional lapses in concentration. I read she made 38 unforced errors in her qtr final match and even if Radwanska couldn’t take full advantage I think Kim can. Maria Sharapova vs Petra Kvitova - over 21.5 games 1.80 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) I think this one is even tougher to call than the first semi, and so think this one could go on for a while until either lady can grind the other down. I reckon both will have been a little surprised to have got this far with relatively little concerns but now they have got there both have a good fighting mentality and will not want to let a place in a grand slam final go. Whilst both are playing well neither have shown anything that makes me think that they will be able to blast the other off the court, and the least we can expect in my opinion is 2 very tight sets. :hope
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012
Another decent night +1.65 units.Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrrer – Djokovic 3-0 1.75 at Bwin (1 unit) :ok Andy Murray vs Kei Nishikori – First set under 9.5 games 1.90 at Sporting Bet (1 unit) :ok -
Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Tonight I’m going to take; Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrrer – Djokovic 3-0 1.75 at Bwin (1 unit) In all but one of the six matches these two have played on hard courts Novak has won in straight sets and as he is playing well this tournament I see no reason why that won’t happen today. The only match that didn’t was the match in London last November, a tournament where Djokovic was struggling with his shoulder injury and he was quick to set the record straight easily beating Ferrer 6-2 6-1 in Abu Dhabi at the turn of the year. I also think that Djokovic will also be looking to be a bit more clinical having dropped his first set of the tournament against Hewitt in the last round. Andy Murray vs Kei Nishikori – First set under 9.5 games 1.90 at Sporting Bet (1 unit) When I was looking at Nishikori’s record against the big name players he almost always has lost and at times struggled in first set. He’s played Tsonga twice this year and lost both opening sets with scorelines of 1-6 and 2-6. In the past few months he has also has lost opening sets to Roddick (3-6), Federer (1-6), Djokovic (2-6) and against Murray in October 2011 he lost the opener 6-3, and also the second set 6-0. I haven’t seen enough of Nishikori to say whether this is an accurate reflection of how he’s played or is a problem that he has, but I’m going to go for it anyway and hope for the best. Murray has been playing some excellent tennis this tournament. In the last two sets vs Llodra and the first two vs Kukushkin he was so dominant and if he can keep that momentum going into the starting of this game, Kei might be in for a shock early on. :hope Could see nothing to interest me in the two womens matches.
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Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 24-26 January LE needs to do something quickly, otherwise I've had a mare here. Doubt he can though. EDIT - Terrible pick from me :wall. Roma got nowhere near them. I think the approach would have been to go and try and control the game , but the early goal put pay to that and Roma were completely out of ideas from then onwards. Having a look at the other games, can see nothing that jumps out to me. Both Inter and Napoli have taken strong squads and so that match will be hard to call. In the other match up, Chievo have made a few changes (no Sorrentino and no Cesar I believe, not sure who else) so could be worth keeping an eye on Siena's prices. However wont be around tomorrow night to check team news etc so there will be no bets from me, which is probably just as well considering tonights selection. Good luck to anyone who take a punt on them.
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Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 24-26 January Line ups are on the below link. http://soccernet.espn.go.com/match?id=336404&cc=5739 Looks like Juve will stay with the usual formation, just different players. I would say they look a lot weaker up front than they do in defence, although a midfield of Pirlo, Giaccherini and Marrone (although I don't know too much about him) does look a little light weight defensivly and may allow Roma the majority of possession. What they do with it is another matter, but if they can control the game then they have a great chance of getting the win. With that in mind I will so for Juve vs Roma - Roma DNB 3.0 at bet365 (1 unit) :hope
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012
So close with Rafa, wasn't expecting Berdych to keep it as close as he did for those opening two sets. Still a small profit overall last night so not all bad. Well done all other winners.Rafa Nadal vs Tomas Berdych – Nadal -5.5 games 1.85 at Bwin (1 unit):\ Victoria Azarenka vs Agnieska Radwanska – over 20.5 games 1.83 at Ladbrokes(1 unit):ok Caroline Wozniaki vs Kim Clijsters – over 21.5 games 1.91 at Coral (1 unit):ok -
Re: Upgrade - Oustanding Problems/Issues? First can I say that I'm liking the new look. Think it looks a lot more modern and fresher in appearance than the old forum did. Well done to all involved. Having said that.....I have found one slight bug so far, which seems to be an issue in both Safari and IE, so maybe on all browsers as well. Its just that on the links that run across the top of each thread, the link for forum never seems to work and when clicked just opens up a failure page with the web address being http://pl-worker3/ or something similar. Hopefully the attached image highlights what I'm on about. I've tried it from numerous threads and sections and always have the problem. The home icon still works so can be used instead I guess. [ATTACH]1892[/ATTACH]
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012
Caroline Wozniacki vs Kim Clijsters- Under 22.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10)
Ha, we did it again. :loonCaroline Wozniaki vs Kim Clijsters – over 21.5 games 1.91 at Coral (1 unit) -
Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 24-26 January 4 quite interesting ties this midweek in the Coppa Italia, starting with the Juve vs Roma match tomorrow night where I feel there could be some potential with the away team Conte has a few injury problems and hasn’t been able to call up Pepe or Marchisio for this match. As those are 2 out of perhaps there best 4 players so far this season these will be a big loss for them in this match. Buffon and Vucinic are also rested for this match, and these are another two first team regulars. On top of this Conte has said today that regardless of the injury situation he will look to shuffle things around and give opportunites for those who haven’t had many this season. Given that they also have a huge game vs Udinese at the weekend could also mean that some other key men, like Pirlo and Matri could be rested. Juve’s performances have been heavily dependent on all of these all season and without them I doubt they will be at their imperious best and this could give hope for Roma. Roma have taken a very strong squad. De Rossi is still injured and whilst that is a big miss, I think Gago is beginning to show that he a decent replacement and if Juve do mess around with their midfield line up, then Gago would have a better chance of handling things in there. Other than that I expect a strong line up from Luis Enrique. The Roma squad is; Goalkeepers - Stekelenburg, Lobont, Curci Defenders- Heinze, Juan, Kjaer, Rosi, Taddei, José Angel Midfielders - Gago, Greco, Perrotta, Pjanic, Simplicio, Viviani Strikers- Borini, Bojan, Lamela, Totti Roma were able to manage a draw with Juve earlier in the season, despite the fact that at the time they had multiple injuries, poor form and were under extreme pressure. So if Juve play what would be a considerably weakened side then I see no reason why Roma couldn’t do the same here. Obviously I will wait for starting lineups to be released but if I’m convinced that’s Juve’s line up is weak enough then be looking to back Roma (with some draw cover, maybe +0.5 which is at 1.85 currently) or I might have a look at the goal market. Roma to score over 1.5 is also at a tempting 3.40.
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Tuesday 24 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP 
Juventus v AS Roma (19:45 GMT) 2.1 3.5 4.2 100.00 % Wednesday 25 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP Chievo v Siena (16:30 GMT) 2.42 3.2 3.4 101.98 % Napoli v Internazionale (19:45 GMT) 2.5 3.35 3.3 100.15 % Thursday 26 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP AC Milan v Lazio (19:45 GMT) 1.9 3.5 5 100.95 % -
Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Some cracking calls in here again last night. :clap As for tonight i'm taking; Rafa Nadal vs Tomas Berdych – Nadal -5.5 games 1.85 at Bwin (1 unit) As pointed out above Nadal has a great record against Berdych , winning 10 in a row, with 9 of these being in straight sets. With the way Rafa has been playing so far this tournament, with 4 convincing wins I can see no way in which Berdych can put a dent in this run and it should be a relatively routine win for the Spaniard. In doing so he should be able to beat this handicap. Victoria Azarenka vs Agnieska Radwanska – over 20.5 games 1.83 at Ladbrokes(1 unit) I’m no oracle on womens tennis but I was expecting this games line to be maybe one or two games higher, given the past matches these two have played on hard courts. In the five matches they have played they have averaged 25 games and I suspect a similarly tight affair today. Both women are playing impressive tennis here, and it might be a long slog until someone can force a few mistakes. Azarenka has had quite an easy tournament but it has at least enabled her to continue the run of form that brought her the title in Sydney 10 days ago. Whilst it has be plain sailing here for her so far, it must be said that in the last three rounds at Sydney against better players she was taken over this game line in all those rounds. Radwanska was a bit sloppy at the start of the tournament against Mattek Sands but since then has recorded comprehensive wins over decent competitors inc that 6-1 6-1 against the 22nd seed Georges so seemingly has also found her form, and so should be able to compete perhaps more than the outright odds suggest. Caroline Wozniaki vs Kim Clijsters – over 21.5 games 1.91 at Coral (1 unit) Have given this match up a lot of consideration and whilst I do still fancy Kim to win, that ankle injury is a concern so will have a punt on this instead. Clijsters has a solid 3-0 H2H record versus Woz, but in all of those games the Dane has been able to keep things relatively close, forcing 21 matches in two of them and 30 in the other. With the ankle injury you would have to think that Wozniaki could push Clijsters a little bit more here and given how close the previous matches have been to passing this games line I think there is a good chance of a positive result here. . Clijsters of course is a fighter and will not back down easily. She won 2 tight sets even when injured against Li Na, so doubt she will succumb easily, if indeed she is to succumb. :hope
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Nothing for me for todays matches. Did feel that the games line is set a little low in the Murray game (26.5 in some places) but don't have complete confidence to take the overs. Good luck to all getting involved. Looking forward to Tuesday's matches I would be very interested in backing Clijsters, however it seems she rolled her ankle in the match against Li Na. Did anyone see this match, and if so would anyone have any concerns about her fitness for this one. It appears that the injury happened in the first set and Kim still managed to win the next two, so doesn't seem that bad.
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Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January
:ok +1.2 units for the day and +1.3 units for the weekend Quite a few on here on the overs in this match. Good stuff guys.Arsenal vs United – over 2.5 goals 1.80 at bet365 (1.5 units) -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 21-22 January
Well 2/3 for the day and 3/4 for the weekend with +2.63 units profit. Could have been so much better if Cavani had converted that penalty, although to be fair I saw a bit of that game and Napoli probably didn't deserve the win. Please that the Palermo overs bet came in for everyone on here. It was a popular pick.Siena vs Napoli – Napoli to win 2.15 at Victor Chandler (2 units) :wall Udinese vs Catania – Udinese to win 1.70 at Ladbrokes (2 units):ok Lecce vs Chievo - over 2.5 goals 2.35 at Bet365 (1 unit):ok -
Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January I was waiting for the outcome of the City game before taking this, but now they have taken the three points from Spurs I will take a punt on... Arsenal vs United – over 2.5 goals 1.80 at bet365 (1.5 units) Man Utd now need the win to ensure that they keep tracks on City and I think that’s the mentality that Fergie will be putting in his players’ minds in the dressing room now. If they do go out and attack Arsenal then of course we know that the Gunners are still vulnerable with players out of position and personally I still have doubts over Mertesacker. With Nani, Rooney and co running at him I think he could flounder at times. With these issues I would fancy United to get on the score sheet once or twice. Up the other end Arsenal still possess a threat with Van Persie and the pace of Walcott and Chamberlin on the flanks. United are still without Vidic and no Ferdinand either, so it could be a tricky match for them with a defence of Smalling , Jones, Evans and Evra. There has perhaps rightly been a lot of positive talk about Jones and Smalling this season but they are still inexperienced and capable of making mistakes as we have seen this season. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 21-22 January Regarding the Fiorentina match, its been put back to a 3:30pm (2:30 UK time), but is def going ahead. Its been put back to show solidarity / cause a bit of disruption on behalf of local workers. Anyway i've just taken one more, been weighing it up all morning and couldn't believe the odds when I saw them Lecce vs Chievo - over 2.5 goals 2.35 at Bet365 (1 unit) Not much time for a write up but Lecce are still perservering with the attacking outlook under Cosmi. Although the last two games have been 1-0 there were a lot more chances for both sides than the scorelines suggest. Lecce have a good attacking threat with Muriel, Di Michele and Cuardrado. However with Mesbah moving on and no Strasser as well they do look much weaker than normal defensivly, especailly with Obodo still on the bench. Cheivo should then be able to cut through the Leece quite easiliy if they try and they have a decent enough strike force to take their chances, especially with Pellisier motivated to get his 100th team goal. :hope
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012
Again a bit more profit for the evening so all good. Well done all other winners.Kim Clijsters vs Li Na – over 20.5 games 1.83 at Victor Chandler (1 unit):ok Thomas Berdych vs Nic Almagro – under 37.5 games 1.85 at Victor Chandler (1 unit):\ Rafa Nadal vs Feliciano Lopez – under 31.5 games 1.91 at Skybet(1 unit):ok -
Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Excellent start to the evening for you Fishy with Azarenka easily covering the handicap. Rafa Nadal vs Feliciano Lopez – under 31.5 games 1.91 at SkyBet(1 unit) Have gone for a last minute punt on this. As its been pointed out Nadal has a strong record vs Lopez and I can see no reason why that would change here. In all the 7 completed matches Nadal has won against his opponent all have been done with ease in straight sets and with an average of just over 9 games per set in each of these matches. Maybe Lopez could match that here but I honestly think that could be a struggle for him, and even if he did this bet would still be a winner.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 21-22 January
Honestly i'm not really a value punter so can't really comment on what would class as value and what doesn't. For me this match is almost certainly going to be a no bet. What i would say is that Lazio are too dependent on two players (Klose and Hernanes) and they will struggle against the top teams who have the quality to keep these players reasonably quiet. As you point out Inter are looking defensively solid at the moment and they now defend much better as a unit unlike earlier in the season and you would imagine that they have enough to contain Lazio. Going forward Inter are not as strong and they have really missed Sneijder but as we saw against Milan, they will take their chances if they get handed to them and with the way the Lazio defence has been playing at the moment (unfortunatly there has been a lot of changing of the back 4 due to injuries over the last month or so) you wouldn't rule out Lazio gifting something. DNB / +0.5 could be an option but that would depend on your own confidence of this Lazio back line.Thanks. Latest odds are: Inter 1.73 Draw 3.65 Lazio 5.8 Do you see any value from Lazio there? (I have seen Lazio a few times, and they seem talented but inconsistent away from home. I've seen Inter and they seem very solid and defensive). -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 21-22 January
:ok + 1.82 units. I think Juve deserved the win as they created more and better opportunities than the hosts. However they were fortunate not to concede a couple of pens given how Chiellini was man-handling Denis from set pieces. I know that pushing and pulling happens on all set plays but what the Juve defender was allowed to get away with was ridiculous. Will be interesting to see what the ref does in the next Juve game, and may be worth backing Juve to concede a penalty, Chiellini to get booked etc, as i'm sure the Italian FA will be looking to make a stand about this kind of stuff. Anyway on to todays action... I do think this weekend looks like one for backing the big teams. Juve have already come through and I’m also going to take; Siena vs Napoli – Napoli to win 2.15 at Victor Chandler (2 units) I would suggest that the price on Siena is slightly exaggerated due to the emphatic win over Lazio in their last home games. It was a good performance by Siena in that match but Lazio were hopeless and gifted them three goals through penalties & comedy defending. Prior to that result Siena had faced 4 pretty decent teams at home (Atalanta, Genoa, Inter and Fiorentina) and failed to win any so I would suggest that another win is unlikely here. This is made even more unlikely by a couple of important absentees here. Rossettini almost an ever present in defence this season is suspended , and the biggest miss will be Gazzi who has done a very well this season for them acting as the defensive shield for what is otherwise not a particularly defensive midfield . Gazzi certainly would have been useful in trying to stop Napoli’s counter attacks and Hamsik in particular. First choice GK Brkic is also out. It has been mentioned in the Italian media that Siena might move to 3-5-2 to compensate these loses and match Napoli’s tactics. Whilst doing this worked for Bologna on Monday, I’m not convinced that its going to work for Siena. It might make them more competitive but ultimately the players unfamiliarity with the tactic is likely to guarantee that a team of Napoli’s calibre will get a couple of chances to bag a win. The suggestion would be that Pessoli, Contini, Vergassola & Parravincini would come in at CB and CM. Given that these 4 have only got 10 starts between them this season it would clearly be a big gamble, and I’ll be even more confident in this bet if Sannino did go ahead with it. As for Napoli, they are at full strength with the returning Lavezzi being a big boost for them. There seems to be no indication that Mazzarri will do any of his rotating , and so I fancy them to get the win whatever tactic Siena utilise. Udinese vs Catania – Udinese to win 1.70 at Ladbrokes (2 units) Not the best odds admittedly but I’m pretty confident of Udinese getting the win in this one that I’m willing to take a chance. Udinese have been on a little bit of a bad run recently losing their last two in the cup vs Chievo and last weekend in the 2-3 defeat to Genoa. Some might pinpoint that this has been down to them losing 2 out of their 3 best players to the ACN in Benatia and Asamoah, and whilst that will obviously have had some impact I still think they can cope without them. The bigger issue particularly against Genoa was the loss of Dommizzi as well, which meant they had to field a back three of Ekstrand, Ferroneti and Danilo and I wasn’t surprised that Genoa were able to capitalise on that. For this match however they have a full squad (less the African players) to choose from and being able to bring Dommizzi back in for Ekstrand will improve that defence considerably. This should then provide them with a decent base to build and even without Asamoah I would fancy the trio of Isla, Pinzi and Fernandes to be in complete control of the midfield. This should then mean that they have enough of the ball to fashion some opportunities for Di Natalie, and given that he is still scoring goals for fun after the winter break ( 4 in 3 games) you would fancy him to take advantage of the domination the home team should have in this game. Catania are a decent team but the fall out over Maxi Lopez transfer move has hindered them, as he was without doubt their best attacking player. Without him they are a mid table side at best, so with the quality that Udinese still have I expect them to win. :hope Would have liked to have backed Milan as well on the handicap, but I've just noticed that Boateng is suspended for this one. He's really been the one thats made them tick so far this season (especially against weaker opposition, like Leece and Bologna) and without him I think they could struggle to get that many goals. Also still weighing up a couple of other bets, looking at goals in both the Bologna vs Parma game and Leece vs Chievo.Atalanta vs Juve - Juve to win 1.91 at bet365 (2 units) -
Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January
Felt the card today was a little tricky, with quite a few difficult to call games, so i'm happy to have come out with profit, no matter how small. Well done to other winners today.Norwich vs Chelsea – Chelsea to score over 2.5 goals 2.88 at Coral (1 unit):\ Everton vs Blackburn – Blackburn over 0.5 goals 1.73 at BoyleSports (1.5 units):ok -
Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Have already taken a punt on these; Kim Clijsters vs Li Na – over 20.5 games 1.83 at Victor Chandler (1 unit) Would think this is going to be a tight one, and I’m happy to take this overs line. These two met twice in 2011, both times in Australia (inc the final here) last year and both of those games were tight ones with 24 and 22 games. 3 of the other 5 games these two have played have also gone well over 20.5 games. Both ladies have been in excellent form at this event cruising through all their rounds in straight sets and it’s hard to see any major weaknesses in eithers armour which could be exploited. These two may have to grind it out until one of them makes a rare mistake. Thomas Berdych vs Nic Almagro – under 37.5 games 1.85 at Victor Chandler (1 unit) Berdych should have too much for Almagro here, as he did when these two had there only ever hard court encounter at Cinnicinati last year when the Czech won 6-2 6-2. After a mixed couple of weeks coming into this event Berdych has found his feet and have won in straight sets in his two previous rounds, and in doing so both of those matches also went under this game line. Almagro’s win over Wawrinka was admirable, but in general I don’t think he has the ability on this surface to really challenge the top players and he’s come unstuck at this round in the last three Aussie Opens. I expect a routine win for Berdych but I think this game line is generous enough to cover the possibility of a couple of tight sets, or maybe even a four setter. Can't see anything else on the womens side that interest me tonight, but might be back with a couple of others in the mens event. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 21-22 January
Neither team are struggling that much. Inter have Thaigo Motta suspended, and as Stankovic is also out they may have to line up with with the youngster Faraoni in midfield. However he has been excellent in the matches i've seen him this season so that shouldn't be too much of a concern for Ranieri. Other than that Inter are fine, but have a bit of a selection dilemma in regards to Sneijder. He is more or less fully back to fitness but having played 80+ mins in midweek another start here could be a bit too much to ask so all signs at the moment point to him starting from the bench with Alvarez in the first 11 but thats obviously just a guess rather than anything definite. Lazio have all the main players back in the squad, including a full complement of defenders to choose from. The only doubt is Rocchi who has a bit of a knock I believe, so Cisse may well have to come into replace him. That would be a blow for Lazio as Cisse has been woeful so far this season and I would fancy the Inter defence to easily handle him. Rocchi would offer a bit more fight.Dylan - do you know of any team news for Inter v Lazio tomorrow? -
Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Everton vs Blackburn – Blackburn over 0.5 goals 1.73 at BoyleSports (1.5 units) Not much time for a write up but I think this is worth ago. Everton are still missing Distin and Jagielka from centre back so Duffy and Heitinga are partners in central defence again. That’s not a pairing I would be particulalry keen on and Blackburn will be sure to pressure them, especially aerially from set pieces and long balls and they should be able to force something. In terms of the stats they favour this bet. Everton have conceded in all back one game at home this season whilst Blackburn have an impressive scoring record on the road scoring in every away league game so far this season. :hope
Italy - Coppa Italia - 24-26 January
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 24-26 January I feel the price on Lazio for tomorrow nights game is very interesting. Could be a number of options but +0.5 at evens stands out. Reja has called up a full strength squad for the trip to Milan and all signs point to a full strength starting 11 as well. Think this could cause some problems to Milan, who could well field a weakened team as they did in the last round vs Novara. However I can't see any confirmation of Milans squad yet although i'm sure something official must be out there. Will probs just leave it until team news is announced. Over 2.5 another option maybe. The league match between these two sides was a cracker, ending 2-2.