Dylan
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Posts posted by Dylan
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December I think the Genoa vs Bologna game is also an interesting one. Bologna seem to have found their best attacking selection recently with Diamanti and Ramirez playing behind Di Vaio. The first two are players who always want the ball and will run at defenders / midfielders all day. Genoa to me are a bit like Fiorentina, very fickle and with only Rossi who really shows much passion and I don't think they will enjoy playing against Bologna. With Palacio and most likely Danielli out they will miss two key lynchpins of their side, and with Antonini and Bovo also both out as well, defence wise there could be a little bit of a crisis. I'm still weighing up the +0.5 or DNB on Bologna.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December
Thanks man. Unfortunatly it wasn't to be but I take great solace that they were so close to coming in, at least it means I was barking up the right trees. -0.3 units for the day. I do feel i might have gone a little goal crazy in todays match ups as i've gone for; Parma vs Leece – over 2.5 goals 2.10 at bet265 (2 Units) I agree with ultravires earlier post that this game see’s two teams with pretty awful defences and goals are surely likely. Let’s start with Leece who have conceded 7 in their last 2 games, and in a bid shore up defensively their mad cap manger Sergi Cosmi has decided the best thing to do is to player more attackers in a 4-3-3 formation (usually 4-1-3-2 I think). Not sure whether this is a good idea as it leaves Obodo out of the team who is a work horse and contributes well to both attack and defence, and so it leaves their defence looking even more exposed. They have however scored 4 in their last two games as well, and Muriel is beginning to highlight his promise and with Di Michele back fit they have got a partnership that is seemingly working well with Di Michele's calmness and experience allowing Muriel to fully unleash all his youthful exuberance. These two will definitely be a threat and with Cuardrado who is a pacy and direct runner likely to join them upfront it’s actually quite an exciting prospect. Parma for their part have a decent home record (4-1-2), and even without Giovinco won’t go down without a fight. Losing Gio is a huge loss but they do still do have a couple of decent attackers on the park and if there is any defence they could break open it’s probably this Leece one. Leece are indeed very tempting, but as we saw against Lazio they can easily undo all their hard work with lazy defending so I hope goals are the better option. Cesena vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.25 at bet365 (2 units) I really don’t think that Inter have turned any corners yet, and they should certainly be made to work for any points against Cesena this afternoon. Although they have recorded 4 wins in the last 5 league, I think they have got away with it slightly due to the oppositions negative tactics, both Genoa and Fiorentina didn’t even try to worry them and Siena rarely gave 100% either. I can’t see Cesena doing the same, they are a spirited team and will want to get the win. Cesena’s form has been excellent recently, three wins in four including decent scalps in Palermo and Genoa has left morale very high and Mutu has really come into his own with three goals in these matches. Attacking wise they have no major issues for this game, and whilst the captian Colluci is still out he has been for a while and played no part in this mini revival. They have quite an attacking formation as well with 3 attack minded midfielders and one up top. Defensively they are fine too but I still think they are susceptible to attacks when the ball is kept on the floor. If Inter want to win I feel they will need to step their game up and score at least twice here. They are certainly capable of that and hopefully recent results has improved confidence. It’s unfortunate Sneijder is still out but it’s clear that they still have players of great quality who should really be able to out think Cesena’s today. I think there will also be some pressure from the fans and the board to put in a better attacking performance as the forwards haven’t exactly shone in recent weeks. :hopeUnlucky tonight Dylan - it could have been a great night for you. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December Its interesting, but their hasn't actually been any movement in outright odds since I last looked.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December Quite an interesting set of fixtures betting wise this weekend, and there is something I like in all three of todays games; Chievo vs Cagliari – Chievo to win 2.10 at bet365 (2 units) Despite generally being a bit stop and start in their form so far this season Chievo are strong at home and I make them favourites to get a win against a depleted Cagliari. Cagliairi’s biggest issues are in midfield where they will miss Conti and Cossu and to a lesser extent Ekdal as well. That leaves them with very little options and there is some talk the manager might have to adjust formations to cope, something that is always difficult to do at short notice during a season. Nene is also missing, as is pivotal defender Astori who has been out for a few games now, and whilst their defence hasn’t collapsed as some might have expected after he picked up his injury, it’s still a loss that Chievo could exploit. Whilst Chievo are without a win in three games now, they played well against Udinese and in parts against Atalanta and have worked hard to regain some confidence after their embarrassing performance against Milan. At home this season they have a 3-3-1 record, and with an almost full strength side to pick from they should be able to pick off Cagliari tonight. Milan vs Siena – over 2.5 goals 1.73 at bet365 (2.5 units) Have decided to play it safe and go with the over 2.5 rather than the 3.5 in this match which should see goals I feel. Milans attacking threat is by far the best in the league and so far this season they are top scorers both at home and away and already averaging more than 2.5 a game at home in the league. It’s very possible that Milan themselves could get three goals in this match. They will certainly be highly motivated as a win would take them top of the league. However Milan do have a bit of a defensive crisis on their hands, with Abate and Antonini picking up injuries late this week, and Yepes injuring himself in last weekends match. It means Bonera will come in at CB and the full backs will be Taiwo and De Sciglio who is a youngster who would be starting his first Milan game if he was to get selected. The fact that this is a untested and a bit of a last minute back four means they could be susceptible especially on set pieces where D’Agostino is an excellent deliverer (and Brienza isn’t too shabby either), and their two inform strikers Destro and Calaio may be able to exploit any lack of communication the new look defence has. Fiorentina vs Atalanta – Atalanta DNB 3.25 at bet365 (1 unit) Just a small one on Atalanta here as I really don’t like the look of this Fiorentina team from what I’ve seen this season. I’m expecting a dour game with Atalanta perhaps the most likely to grab the win as they have a bit more cohesion in their play and the more in form players. Some of Fiorentina’s play this season has been unbelievably negative and for me they are getting a little to reliant on Jovetic, which makes there play quite predictable and relatively easy for opposing teams to combat. I’ve just looked at the stats and ignoring the Roma game where they were helped by 2 penalties and 3 red cards they have had only 14 shots on target in the last 5 league games. Having watched three of these matches I can understand why the figures are so low. Midfield is the biggest problem, as they are quite lazy (perhaps with the exception of Behrami) and other than Montolivo (who is out for this game) they have very little creativity. I think Atalanta will be able to soak up any pressure and then look to break quickly to exploit the midfield. If Scheletto or Moralez can get on the ball enough then they are likely to create something. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December Goals certainly look likely in the Milan match. We all know about Milans attacking ability but defensive wise they could be in a bit of a mess with the two full backs Abate and Antonini both out, as well as Nesta and his replacement Yepes. This means back four may well be; De Sciglio - Bonera - Silva - Taiwo I don't expect Siena to go all out and attack this weakened defence but they will be a massive threat from set pieces with the delivery D'Agostino. I'm going to look into to over 2.5 / 3.5 prices.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 14th December Lazio vs Sporting – over 2.5 goals 1.83 at Stan James (2.5 units) It’s more or less a must win game for Lazio, as I don’t think they’ll take any chances on the Vaslui result, so they must go looking for goals in this match. To do so it’s likely the Edy Reja may use a slightly more attacking formation than his norm, with just two rather than three in CM and then a front four of Hernanes, Cisse, Sculli and Rocchi, with the later three all being strikers. Add to this the fact they can call Klose off the bench if things are not going well, and its clear Lazio will have plenty of attacking threat in this match. The problems for Lazio at the moment are in defence, where Konko, Dias, the goalkeeper Marchetti, Radu and Stankevicius are all injured, meaning options are limited. It’s looking likely the youngster Luis Cavanda will start in defence, which would be only his 3rd ever start for Lazio, and Reja may also use Lulic at left back where I don't think he's played for a while. Sporting have taken a weakened squad and whilst it’s true that they don’t need any kind of result, the clubs / managers philosophy and the fact that any youngsters / back up players will no doubt want to try and impress should mean that they will still be trying to put in a good performance, and they probably won’t have to try too hard to score against a side that conceded twice to bottom of the table Leece at the weekend. I won’t be taking it personally, but over 3.5 goals may well be worth some consideration as well. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Crikey! Really didn't expect Juve to not turn up -3.7 units for the week in Serie A. Thank god for a good weekend in the Premier League for me.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December
Another mixed day in Serie A, -1.2 units for the week now. Don't now what Mazzari is thinking with his constant changes and tweaks to the team, they really missed Inler & Gargano in the middle, where Hamsik was wasted. Pandev was anonymous in the second half, and it was a strange one to take Cavani off so early in the game. Still will look to turn a profit tomorrow in taking; Roma vs Juve – Juve to win 2.10 at betfred (2.5 units) I’m also going to be on the Juve win tomorrow night, to be honest I think Juve could rack up any score they want, so certainly potential on the handicaps as well, however as the outright odds are decent I won’t be too greedy and will stick with this. Ultravires has already done a brilliant write up on this game / bet so haven’t got too much else to add. Roma’s defence is in a complete mess at the moment with Juan suspended and injuries to Cassetti, Kjaer and Burdisso, meaning that the only centre back options for this match are De Rossi and Heinze. The fact that this is a new pairing is worry enough, but added to fact that De Rossi is not a natural defender and Heinze is ridiculously slow it really doesn’t look good for Roma. Juve play great attacking football, with constant movement, quick passing, late runs and with no co-ordination between the two and very little speed they might be chasing shadows all evening. They also have issues at full back with Perotta, Angel and Taddai all with slight niggles if Gazzetta is to be believed. Oh and Gago, their most defensive midfielder is also out following a red card picked up against Fiorentina last weekend. Also Luis Enrique also wants them to play a high pressure game, defending from the front and this will be vital against a team like Juve who love to keep hold of the ball, however I can’t really see Totti or Lamela working too hard to win possession of defenders or deep lying Pirlo / Vidal and its likely to just be wave after wave of Juve pressure. As for Juve, the only issue for them is the loss of Vucinic, but I don’t actually think this is too much of a loss for this match as player likely to come in for him (Estigarribia) is more mobile and another whose runs could upset the Roma defence. :hopeNovara vs Napoli - Napoli to win 1.95 at Boyle Sports (3 units) :\ Bologna vs Milan - over 2.5 goals 1.91 at William Hill (2 units) :ok -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Just quickly; Bologna vs Milan - over 2.5 goals 1.91 at William Hill (2 units) Have already touched on this game in a previous post and as team news is as expected, i'll have a go with this bet. Milan are the top scorers in this league and have looked strong in attack over the last month or so. The team should be looking for a convincing win here after the mistakes in the CL in midweek led to public criticism from the manager, on top of that the strikers should be looking to the news that Tevez may be very close to joining as motivation to get even more goals, and I think Pato may be a real threat today. The only concern I have for Milan in midfield where I feel that without the hard working Nocerino they may be a bit defensivly light, with only really Van Bommell who could be classed as a defensive midfielder. Arguably Bologna's best players in Ramirez, Diamanti and perhaps Kone all operate in the middle of the park and I think they may find a bit of space to exploit and hopefully for this bet they can put the ball in the net once or twice. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December
Mixed bag, tiny tiny loss. Guess Palermo screwed quite a few over yesterday. Well done to Inter backers, i'm still of the opinion that they are are still a bit of a mess, but they took advantage of a Fiorentina side with absolutely zero ambition. As for today definitely one I like, and still looking at possible options in Bologna and Udinese matches. Novara vs Napoli - Napoli to win 1.95 at Boyle Sports (3 units) A lot of the points dropped by Napoli this season can be attributed to their focus on the Champions League rather than the domestic league. But with the group stages now over and a mid season break coming up shortly, Mazzari shouldn't be worrying about rotation or injuries for the next few months and this should allow Napoli to regain focus on climbing higher up the league. There is already a 7 point gap between them a Champions League spot that they need to recover and for them it would be unforgivable to not come away from Novra without the three points. Napoli have no major injury or suspension worries, and with a full complement of players and the style of play they have this should really suit them against Novara, who at home can be quite an attacking side. They don't however have the quality upfront (or indeed in any area of the pitch) especially with the two main strikers Jeda and Meggorini out to trouble Napoli and the away side should just be able to pick them off with counter attacks throughout the game. :hope I'm thinking goals, either over 2.5 or both to score in the Bologna vs Milan game. Milan we know are good going forward, and with speculaltion about Tevez, i think both Robinho and to more extent Pato (2.5 anytime goal scorer???) will have a point to prove. However with Yepes in CB and no Nocerino, Milan are defensivly weakened for this game. It seems like Bologna will play Diamanti and Ramirez both behind the striker, and i'm not sure Milan have enough in that area of the park to counteract this so they could get over run there. Anyone have any thoughts on this?Leece vs Lazio - over 2.5 goals 2.15 at Stan James (2 units) Palermo vs Cesena – Palermo -1AH 2.10 at Victor Chandler (2.5 units) -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Klose starts for Lazio, very optimistic for goals now. Danielli also starts for Genoa, so defensive issues not as bad as they could have been for Genoa. Thats a no bet game for me now. Good luck all in Serie A today.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Whilst I wish the best of luck on those backing Inter tonight, it does surprise me that people are still confident at backing an Inter win at below evens considering how awful they have been all season and that the early team news suggested that Maicon and Lucio would miss out. I cant see why this is anymore of a must win for Inter than any of their previous games and they haven't played emphatically in any of those ones to be honest. It now seems likely that those two will be fit to start but still considering the likely team it still looks decidedly average and one that Fiorentina should have no trouble competing against. There is very little creativity in midfield with Sneijder, Obi and Stankovic all out and Alvarez not yet finding his feet, and they will of course miss the influence of Zanetti as well. Without Montolivo, Fiorentina may be a little more conservative than usual, and I suspect they would be happy with a point away at the San Siro. They wont push many players forward unless necessary and will probably rely on Jovetic to find space around and behind Nagatomo as a sole attacking outlet. Its a no bet game for me, but I think Ultravires is right in highlighting Fiorentina +0.5 as a possible option, and I think unders may also be likely.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Does anybody have anymore insight on the Genoa match, particularly how the players might respond to speculation that this may be Malesani's last match (if he doesn't win) and that the owner has already been in contact with Lippi and Gigi Di Canio. Will they want to fight for their manager? This will no doubt be a tough game against decent opposition, made tougher for Genoa as they have issues at centre back with no Kaladze, Bovo and a doubtful Danielli, which a confident pairing of Destro and Calaio could take advantage of. Odds not overly exciting but Siena are on my list of maybe's at the moment. I will however be taking; Palermo vs Cesena – Palermo -1AH 2.10 at Victor Chandler (2.5 units) I’ll be on the Palermo win here as well but will have a little flutter on this also. Palermo’s home record is sensational and has been for a while. They’ve won every game at home this season and in their last four home matches this bet would have come in. Whilst they have one or two injury / suspension problems I don’t think it should matter against a side like Cesena. In fact the players returning for Palermo (both Miccoli and Munoz) should improve the solidity of the team and should mean a routine win at the Renzo Barbera. Whilst they have shown good spirit and better performances recently Cesena are always going to struggle against better opponents. To make matters even more difficult for them here they will be with Antoniolli through suspension and still have Commotto and now Lauro out with injuries, which means three of the first choice back five are now missing. Cesena offer very little going forward and have relied on good defensive performances for the most part this season. They, like many do against Palermo, will try to defend for most of the game but with those key defensive losses it will be a tough job for them and ultimately not one I think they will do successfully. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Well Klose has been named in the squad to go to Leece, but Konko hasn't. Doesn't necessary mean that Klose will play of course, as they may want to ensure he's fit for the match with Sporting on Wednesday. Still i'm going to take the following for this match; Leece vs Lazio - over 2.5 goals 2.15 at Stan James (2 units) Even with Klose out for me a lot of the signs seem to be pointing to goals in this one. Leece have a new manager who may come in and adjust things tactically. Azzurini1976 has pointed out that they have been doing a lot of work in training on a 5 man defence and whilst I don't think this is necessarily a bad idea as Leece have been pretty poor defensivly this season, as with all new systems it takes time for players to adapt and there is likely to be a few issues with it in early games, which Lazio can easily exploit. Another defensive issue is the suspension of Strasser who is a solid and committed player and one who they will miss badly particularly when trying to stop Hernanes controlling the match. On the plus side for Leece it looks like Di Michele is going to be back and he will partner Muriel up front. For this first time this season it looks like Leece might posses a decent goal scoring threat, which they have lacked this season. Other than putting the ball in the net i've been impressed by Leece attacking play, they have alot of pace and directness which can always upset teams. For Lazio, their injuries problems are well documented and although their defensive record is very impressive so far this season, with 2 of the first choice defenders out (Dias and Konko) this is always likely to cause problems, especially with Scaloni the likely replacement at right back (who I don't rate, especially when match fitness is low). They still however great attacking threats regardless of whether Klose plays, in the aforementioned Hernanes and in form Rocchi, so they should be confident of netting against the bottom placed team, who have conceded the second largest amount of goals this season. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December
Its being reported (by both Gazetta and Corriere dello sport) that Klose and Konko both missed training today, so may be worth waiting to hear more news on this before backing Lazio. Still think Lazio should win this but with some injury doubts and an important match in the Europa League on Wednesday, Reja might not want to risk any players he has concerns with. I think all the 4 players mentioned in the above post should be ok to play (maybe with the exception of Mesbah) but the really big loss for Leece not mentioned yet is Strasser who is suspended having picked up 4 yellow cards so far. He's a solid defensive player in what is a leaky Leece team and would have been an important player in attempting to shackle Hernanes.Lazio have been one of Serie A's most progressive sides,and im taking them to carry that on against Leece,who have just appointed a new manager.Leece could find the task of beating Lazio even harder,as midfielders Grossmuller and Cuadrado could be out,as could Giacomazzi and Mesbah Bet - Lazio 3pts @ Evens - Betfair. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 November Not had the best results in Serie A lately, but here's hoping for a change in fortunes today. Siena vs Inter - over 2.5 goals 2.10 at bet365 (2 units) Siena are a very strong team at home and other than the loss against Juve in the second round of matches they have had 3 convincing home wins by 2 or 3 goals and played out an exciting 2-2 draw against an Atalanta team last weekend. Indeed overall a good run of only 1 defeat in the last 6 games has given Siena a solid platform so early in the season and I think with the comfort of that behind them they may have the confidence to go out and try to win this one against what is still a vulnerable and also depleted Inter side. Siena are likely to be missing Destro but Calaio will be back apparently which is a big boost for the home team. D'Agostino's set pieces could cause Inter some problems today as well. Inter on the other hand are still playing catch up and when you look at their next three fixtures (tricky ones vs Udinese, Fiorentina and Genoa) you would feel that they certainly need to get the three points here, and I expect them to play accordingly. Sniedjer is out and thats a big miss, but they have enough attacking talent to muddle through and having scored in all of their last 8 games (all comps) you have to fancy them to get on the score sheet here. The biggest worry will again be the defence and with Lucio & Maicon injured and Chivu and Jonathan not travelling with the squad either it means more changes to the back line and more worryingly a start for Nagatomo. Palermo vs Fiorentina - over 2.5 goals 2.10 at Paddy Power (2 units) The idea that Ultravires touched on that Fiorentina will have to fight fire with fire here is one that I agree with and should see an open games with goals I feel. At times under Siniša Mihajlović Fiorentina seemed to lack passion and desire in their matches (such as in the 0-0 against 10 men Cesena), and so Delio Rossi will know that the fans want more from the team under his reign, and after another quiet performance against Milan last week he will know that the fans are yet to see this change. It wont be good enough for them to sit back and try to prevent Palermo scoring because a) they are not good enough defensive wise to do this and b) its almost impossible for any team to stop them scoring at home. Palermo only failed to net three times at home last season and so far this season they have been in excellent form with 5 wins from 5 and an average of almost 3 goals a game. Cagliari vs Bologna - Bologna 0AH 3.70 at Bet365 (1.5 units) Maybe i'm crazy after watching Bologna's piss poor performance vs Cesena last weekend, but I just can't see Bologna losing this one in what should be a tight game. If anything Bologna have the player in Ramirez who is capable to unlocking such tight matches. Cagliari are in terrible form, having not won in six and are missing some key players with Astori, Nene, and Biondini all out, and I think things might get worse for them before they can start to get better. Other than the injuries I think its likely that 4 or 5 of the starting 11 today would have played in the cup match on Thursday which doesn't bode well fitness wise. Bologna on the other hand rested pretty much the full 11 midweek and so will be fresh to put right the wrongs of last weekend. Prior to that game things had been looking better for them under the new manager with back to back wins vs Chievo and Atalanta and a decent enough display in a defeat to Palermo. They might miss Perez who is a tough competitor, but the loss of Di Vaio could help Bologna as I personally don't feel he's been that impressive this season, and with Diamanti doing well in midweek he should get the chance to carry on that form. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 November Might have a little flutter on Udinese match tomorrow; Udinese vs Roma - over 2.5 goals 2.0 at bet365 (2 units) Personally I think Udinese could have a field day against this Roma defence, who play quite high up the pitch (particularly the full backs), and when they do get caught out don't really have much great pace to recover. As always Udinese will look to get runners forward when they break so their should be a lot of space for them to run into. Just like Barca, Roma look to defend by simply not giving away the ball and they generally have 60-65% possesion in their matches. This has shown signs of working in their recent performances with decent enough performances against Novara and Leece, but this Udinese team is a few steps up from those two and Roma have so far this season generally struggled against better teams (losses to Milan, Lazio and Genoa). This Udinese midfield is the ideal combination of defensive solidity which should allow them to break up Roma's possesion game and speed and directness in attack which will allow space to be exploited on the break. I fancy Udinese to score at least twice here, and am hopeful of at least one other coming from elsewhere. Can't rule out this Roma team scoring either, as they have been getting slowly better in recent games, and with Totti and Boriello out injured in recent weeks Enrique has found himself playing a more settled line up who are gradually getting use to each other. Pjanic in particular is looking much more of a threat, and Bojan despite missing a couple of excellent chances vs Leece is getting himself into good goal scoring positions. It took them a while to get going but 5 from Roma's last 7 games have been overs. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 19-20 November Siena vs Atalanta – over 2.5 goals 2.3 at bet365 (2 units) I’ve been really impressed by Siena at home this season. Other than an opening home defeat against Juve they have been very strong, winning 3-0, 2-0 and 4-1. Today they are without Calaio which is a blow given his scoring record this season, but they still have enough creativity (with the excellent D’Agostino and Brienza) and firepower in Destro to get amongst the goals today, against a Atalanta side who have conceded 13 goals already in their 5 away games. Atalanta are also missing key defender Massielo who has been an ever present so far so that should weaken their defensive line. Despite conceding a fair few away from home, Atalanta still posses an excellent attacking threat, with Moralez and Denis in fine form this season with another Argentinian Scheletto backing them up from midfield, and I would fancy them to score at least once this afternoon. Indeed they have scored in all away games this season, showing that they have relatively positive tactics when playing away. In fact all of their way games have gone over the 2.5 goal line this season, which is very encouraging for this bet. Parma vs Udinese – Udinese 0AH 1.98 at bet365 (3 units) Have to agree with others in that Udinese should get the win today, but will take draw cover just in case. I’m never too confident about backing teams away from home in this league. Udinese have a great mix of defensive solidity and strong attacking intent and this should spell problems for Parma, who I think may struggle to find a balance in their play today. At home they will want to attack, and its likely that Biabiany will start as well of Giovinco and Pelle. This could well leave them a man or two light in midfield and against a team who have possibly the best midfield in the league its likely they could get over run. However if Biabiany doesn’t play then they may struggle to bring the ball out of their own half and this just will just invite Udinese pressure, and we have seen this season that Udinese are capable of taking games to teams rather than just relying on counter attacks which may have been the case last year. Losing the experienced Modesto will also weaken Parma today. Genoa vs Novara – Genoa -1 2.5 at Paddy Power (2 units) Should be a routine win for Genoa here and will probably take the outright Genoa win along with this bet. Genoa are a strong home team, unbeaten so far at home this season, and will look to take the game to a depleted Novara team in poor form, and they should have enough quality to beat this handicap. For Novara, they are definitely missing key midfielder Porcari who is suspended for this match and having played all 10 games for them so far this season he will be missed, and the likes of Merkel and Veloso in the Genoa midfield will be looking to take advantage of this. Morimoto and the goal keeper Ukjani are also out, and Paci I believe is a doubt and will be another big loss if he doesn’t start or indeed isn’t 100% fit. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 19-20 November Whilst I probably would have liked a bit more on the Bologna odds as well i'm still going to have a punt on them; Bologna vs Cesena - Bologna to win 2.10 at Bet365 (2.5 units) Bologna have done really well since Stefano Pioli took over, winning 3 out of 5 games, and all of these games are ones where they would have expected to win, and this will be the same again today at home vs Cesena. Bologna really are a solid mid table side and their recent results reflect this, even if the league table is yet to do so. With Gaston Ramirez in the side they have a player who I feel is capable of winning games single handedly, and he should have enough to unlock this Cesena defence, who are solid and can handle aerial challenges but flounder a bit when the balls on the floor. Cesena despite a new coach still looked as poor as ever against Leece a couple of weeks ago. With the expection of Mutu (who himself hasnt shone yet this season) they have very little creativity and should pose little threat especially away from home. Additionally Colluci isn't in the match day squad and Candreva only makes the becnh which is a big loss to the stability of team in midfield and makes it even more likely that Ramirez could cause a bit of havoc. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November
Good start to weekend in Serie A, +2.1 units. For today; Udinese vs Siena – Udinese -1AH 2.20 at Victor Chandler (2.5 units) I’m with Ultravires on this one, we should see a win for Udinese today. I don’t have any concerns about the big midweek defeat as the team that day was mainly made up of 8 / 9 back up players who will be back on the bench today. The usual first eleven is a lot stronger, and this season have shown that they can take the game to the opposition rather than wait for counter attacking opportunities. They are 4 wins out of 4 at home including impressive displays against Fiorentina and Palermo. Siena will probably set up just like all the other 4 teams who have faced Udinese away this season and in all likelihood they will get picked off as well. Indeed on the Gazetta and Goal.com websites they seem to be indicating that Siena will pick the same team as won 4-1 last weekend. Whilst that was an impressive performance, I think you take a big gamble playing a 4 in midfield against Udinese. I guess either Destro or Calaio could drop deeper but that’s not really their game, and I would also have concerns with both Brienza and D’Agostino in midfield as albeit very good creatively, neither are overly known for defensive qualities. If Siena do try to take the game to Udinese then things could get even worse for them. Milan vs Catania – under 2.5 goals 2.20 at Coral (1.5 units) More injuries and suspensions for Milan, and as we saw earlier in the season, they could toil with some key players missing. Nesta will miss this game and they have long term injury issues with Pato, Flamini, Gattuso, Mexes and sadly now Cassano. Also banned for this match are Nocerino and Boateng. Those two being huge losses in my eyes. The midfield is therefore likely to include Seedorf, Ambrosini and Van Bommell and whilst these are still steady players, they are not overly creative and could tire as the game goes on. It’s also unlikely that Robino or Zlatan will step back into midfield to help them out if Catania do have any spells of pressure in the game. Catania are a decent away side and have scored a number of goals on the road this season so I’m sure they will have such spells.However I’m not sure whether they have enough quality in midfield and upfront to really trouble Milan, but they could frustrate them and prevent them from running away with this game. Chievo vs Fiorentina – Fiorentina to win 2.6 at Coral (2 units) Cheivo are missing 3 of the first choice back four, and Fiorentina should surely be looking to take advantage of this. For Cheivo, Bostan Cesar is banned, and Sardo and Morero are both still injured. Having conceded 4 against Siena its clear the loss of these players has had a major effect on Chievo’s defensive capability and Fiorentina should be looking to get the win. For Mihajlovic the pressure is off a little after a win vs Genoa last week and an apology from the Fiorentina fans for jeering him over the last few weeks, and this could allow them to play with a bit more freedom and really unlock the creative skills that they have in abundance. No really injuries concerns for Mihajlovics team either with the exception of Koldrup. Its probably worth noting that the weather is likely to be pretty shitty in Verona for this match and the pitch is likely to be affected somewhat. May limit what Fiorentina can do, but with 3 key defenders out I still think they can force the win. Cesena vs Leece – both teams to score 2.0 at Coral (2 units) Could be an open game this one, with both teams wanting / needing the win and so I think both will be going for it. Over 2.5 is a good option too but given the lack of striking quality both teams have perhaps it is too optimistic to expect either to score more than once. Cesena have a new manager and he will want to start with a win, and also could spring one or two tactical surprises on Leece. With Mutu back and the Cesena crowd always producing a good atmosphere I think they will somehow be able to force a goal. Leece have conceded in all but two games this season. For Leece, without Di Michele they rely on the speed and directness of players like Cuadrado when attacking and I think this could cause Cesena problems, especially with key midfielder Colucci out for Cesena. The Cesena defence have shown themselves to be quite solid against any aerial threats but if Leece can get the ball to Grossmuller and Cuadrado then they have enough trickery to get past the defence a fair few times I feel. :hope Still weighing up Napoli vs Juve, but I'm thinking goals. Just need to see what's availiable.Novara vs Roma – Roma to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (2 units) :hope -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November
I'm fancying goals more than any win / handicap in the Cesena vs Leece match. Cesena have a new man in charge and combine that with this being a home game and Mutu being back and I think Cesena could nick this. Both sides will probably see this as a should win and I feel both will be going for the win. Haven't really seen enough of Cagliari this season to comment but against Cesena and Lazio it sounds like they were really poor, but then again Atalanta only have 1 win in 5 and their good run seems to have come to an end. Two very even teams so could be something in the +0.5 handicap here.I'm looking at Lecce and Cagliari on positive handicaps so I'd appreciate any views. Also overs in Palermo-Bologna. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November The Genoa vs Inter game has been postponed due to bad weather in the region. Genoa has so far been the worst affected place, but a lot of Northern Italy has had and will continue to pretty dodgy weather this weekend, worth considering for Chievo and Milan matches possibly??? Novara vs Roma – Roma to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (2 units) Whilst Novara may also be hit by the bad weather, they have a synthetic pitch which shouldn’t I believe be affected by rain, and if this is the case then it should allow Roma to play the brand of possession football they are trying to implement under Luis Enrique. Personally I’ve been a bit surprised with the criticism that Enrique has been getting as I don’t think Roma have been that bad and the players have shown plenty of signs that they are buying into his philosophy and trying to make it work. The main problem has been upfront, were the attacking players are not making the runs to take advantage of the amount of the ball the midfielders are getting, however that should come with time and in Bojan and Borini I feel they have the right players who are capable of doing this. As long as they keep plugging away then they should have enough to break through this Novara defence once or twice in this match. In many of their matches this season Roma have had the majority of possession (between 60-65% a lot of the time) and without the ball Novara may well struggle. They don’t really have any exceptional ball winners and no-one who is capable of creating something from nothing. First choice goalkeeper Ujkani and defender Lizuzzo are both still out having pick up injuries and these are still big losses for Novara. :hope
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Re: UEFA Europa League > 3rd November
Lovely stuff, +2 units. :ok Congrats to other winners tonight, seemed a few on the Fulham handicap.Just a small one for tonight. Fulham vs Wisla - Fulham -1 2.0 at Ladbrokes (2 units) -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 3rd November Just a small one for tonight. Fulham vs Wisla - Fulham -1 2.0 at Ladbrokes (2 units) All the talk coming from the Fulham camp this week is that they will field a strong side in this match, and want to make amends for the events in the reverse fixture a couple of weeks ago. In that game Fulham looked reasonably comfortable before the sending off, and weren't overly troubled after it, going down by just the one goal. There will be no Senderos for Fulham tonight which is a bonus, and although they have a couple of other injuries, all of their key attacking players are likely to feature, with the exception of the suspended Dembele. Sounds like Wisla are struggling a bit with form lately and have a couple of key injuries so I feel it should be a relativly simple game for the hosts tonight. :hope
Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December
in Italian Football Predictions
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December
For all the above reasons I'm taking a last minute punt on; Genoa vs Bologna - Bologna DNB 3.4 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) :hope