[Fulham v WBA > September 15th]

Re: Fulham v WBA > September 15th To be honest, I’m not sure how you could back a team that has just lost their two best players in Dempsey and Dembele. Sure Dempsey hadn’t featured this season, but both were key to any success they had last season, I think they scored something like 36 of Fulhams 48 goals that they registered last season. Cleary as the West Ham (and to an extent the Sheffied Wednesday cup game as well)result shows that this is a team in transition. I certainly don’t think they’ve brought any like for like replacements for those two, so we will need to see players like Kaciniklic step up and be more consistent, and perhaps the likes of Ruiz or Berbatov adjust there styles a little bit to replace the holes left by Dempsey and Dembele. I’m not convinced that this will work particulalry well and certainly in the short term I can see things being a little disjointed attacking wise . West Brom are solid enough to soak up whatever Fulham try to throw at them. Having kept much of the same team over the summer, they look a very strong outfit and away from home with two defensive midfielders they look a tough team to break down, and I’m not sure that Fulham have enough about them to overcome this. Upfront they have some quality, but whilst they are generally more reserved on the road, they didn’t have a terrible scoring record away from home last season, and in the likes of Gera and Morrison they have people who can score something out of nothing or provide dangerous set pieces. So I will take a small punt on West Brom +0.5AH 1.80 at BetFred ( 2 /10 units)

[Serie A > September 16]

Re: Serie A > September 16

Udinese look a nice price away to Siena. Whilst I have been critical of them so far this season, and have had a number of bets against them already, it must be said that I don’t think they are that bad! With the players, the tactics and the manager they have, they are still a solid mid table side, they still won’t concede many goals and with Di Natalie upfront they will always be able to get a goal or two out of pretty much nothing. Whilst international breaks don’t always come at the right time for teams, this one did for Udinese. A couple of weeks away will have allowed them to forget about the early season disappointments and re focus as a team, for them it’s almost as if the season is starting again on Sunday, as the league had taken back seat to the Champions League exploits up until now. Siena haven’t had the best of starts, with just the one point for 2 games against newly promoted teams. I feel that they would have wanted to get a couple more points on the board given these opponents and with the points deduction on top of this I don’t think Siena’s fans and players are that optimistic about their chances at the moment. Cosmi teams usually need a lot of pace, athleticsm and spirit to succeed and looking at this squad I don’t see much of that in it. If they did have such qualities then maybe they could challenge Udinese, but given that they don’t and that they will line up in more or less the same formations I think Udinese should be able to keep this match under control. The draw no bet / 0AH is around 2.1 here and surely is worth considering as Das Phantom suggests.

Will be getting on this early as well, as i'm not sure the price is going to stay this high as we head into the weekend. I've also gone for the draw cover, as there are a couple of issues with Udinese that need consideration. One is the the GK position, with Brkic suspended and the other is upfront. With Muriel still out, its likely that Barreto, who hasn't featured for Udinese in 5 years may now get his chance to link up with Di Natalie, which makes it about the 4th striking partnership they've tried so far this season. Udinese 0AH 2.15 at Bet365 (4.5 / 10 units) Just to touch on some of the others games mentioned above; Genoa vs Juve - personally I feel this could be a tricky one for Juve, certainly not as easy as the odds suggest. Genoa have started the season playing some really good football, particularly going forward. They look very well balanced in midfield with the technically very good Merkel and Kucka, complementing well with the defensive qualities of Seymour, and up top Immobile and Jankovic have started the season in excellent form. Add to that Borriello coming in for his first start, against a team he may well want to make a point against, then I see a good mix of players who won't be overawed by this Juve team. They still look a bit dodgy at the back, and Juve will get chances but with fitness issues to Giovinco & Bendtner then its looks like we'll see a partnership of Matri and Vucinic. As I say they will get chances but those two will waste a fair few of them. I can see this being a high scoring match with Genoa attacking threats just as potent as Juve. Goals is still something i'm considering but it is priced accordingly at 1.70 ish. Palermo vs Cagliari - I did have Palermo on my shortlist for a while, but the signs coming out of the club are not great at the moment. The two performances so far this season have been dreadful, especially in defence where they lost a couple of key players during the summer. I have confidence that Sannino given time can turn it around, but they do need time to get some confidence, sprit and a couple of key players back before they look worthy of bet. Miccoli hasn't helped this week by having a little moan at the chairman and the quality of the squad which hasn't improved the atmosphere around the club. Cagliari are not a great team, but they have enough about them to frustrate Palermo here. Anyone looking at Atalanta might need to get on quickly, looks like the price has fallen from 9's to just over 8's overnight.

[Serie A > September 16]

Re: Serie A > September 16 Well time to get back to business after the international break. Not taken anything yet, but there are as always a few things under consideration. Udinese look a nice price away to Siena. Whilst I have been critical of them so far this season, and have had a number of bets against them already, it must be said that I don’t think they are that bad! With the players, the tactics and the manager they have, they are still a solid mid table side, they still won’t concede many goals and with Di Natalie upfront they will always be able to get a goal or two out of pretty much nothing. Whilst international breaks don’t always come at the right time for teams, this one did for Udinese. A couple of weeks away will have allowed them to forget about the early season disappointments and re focus as a team, for them it’s almost as if the season is starting again on Sunday, as the league had taken back seat to the Champions League exploits up until now. Siena haven’t had the best of starts, with just the one point for 2 games against newly promoted teams. I feel that they would have wanted to get a couple more points on the board given these opponents and with the points deduction on top of this I don’t think Siena’s fans and players are that optimistic about their chances at the moment. Cosmi teams usually need a lot of pace, athleticsm and spirit to succeed and looking at this squad I don’t see much of that in it. If they did have such qualities then maybe they could challenge Udinese, but given that they don’t and that they will line up in more or less the same formations I think Udinese should be able to keep this match under control. The draw no bet / 0AH is around 2.1 here and surely is worth considering as Das Phantom suggests. Sampdoria at Pescara also interests me. These two teams have had completely differing starts, with Samp picking up maximum points, whilst Pescara have been beaten twice. It’s been spoken on these boards before that Pescara are a much changed and much more inexperienced side than last season, and do seem at the moment to be struggling to adapt to the difficulties of playing at this level. They will also have to make a few changes at the weekend, which looks likely to deplete their team even further, with the suspended Terlizzi and injured Romagnoli definitely out. They also have doubts for Weiss, Jonathas, Vukusic, and Balzano. With these two changes in defence and others possible in attack, they could be exposed at both ends of the pitch here. Samp are the team that have impressed me the most so far this season. When you look at the team on paper, its looks pretty good and they’ve been able to gel the new players, the returning players from loan, and a number of those who helped gain promotion very quickly to produce what is already looking to be a very stable side. They are well organised and combative in defence and midfield as you would expect from a Ciro Ferrera team, and whilst I do worry that they may be over relient on Maxi Lopez during the course of the season to get them goals, he should be able to find space within a makeshift Pescara back line to get chances in this one. The only downside is that Romero, the excellent GK is out for this match but they have a couple of adequate replacements in Berni or Da Costa so I’m not overly worried here. At 2.6 for the win and 1.85 for the 0AH I think they are worth a look. Elsewhere, I have some interest in another away team Inter vs Torino. First thing to say is that the price seems quite generous, given that when they played another newly promoted team Pescara away on opening day they were priced at just 1.85, whilst at the moment you can get them at 2.35. I guess this is a reaction to Inter’s defeat against Roma, but I don’t think that they played terribly in that match and particularly in the first half it was a pretty even affair. In the end, Roma were able to lull Inter and Stramaccioni into creating a more open game and that played into Roma’s hands. I do think over the season that Inter will struggle to get a CL’ spot, with their main undoing being the managers inexperience in the big games domestically as well as in European competitions this season. Whilst that was true vs Roma I don’t think that an away match vs Torino is likely to cause the same difficulties. They did the job comfortably vs Pescara winning 3-0 in that first game of the season, and they don’t have any new injuries to contend with. Indeed the goalkeeper Handanovic is back, and they may also have Ricky Alverez available for selection. I’ve not seen much of Torino yet this season, but they employ a 4-2-4 formation I believe. Having 2 in the middle of the park, against 4 or five top quality Inter players in the same area (we’re looking at Guarin, Cambiasso, Sniejder and Gargano vs Brighi and Gazzi) looks to be a recipe for disaster and I would fancy Inter to control this game and get a relatively comfortable win. Elsewhere, Atalanta are temptingly high vs Milan at 9.0 but as we saw against Bologna, even when Milan play poorly, they have one or two players that can get them out of jail. For goals, the Juve vs Genoa game stands out, but is priced accordingly.

[US Open 2012]

Re: US Open 2012 A couple of excellent picks there bubblepower. Good work

G Ana Ivanovic vs Serena Williams Over 17.5 Games 1.80 at Bet Victor (1 / 10 units)

This one fell a couple of games short, with Serena winning 6-1 6-3. -1 units for the match.

[US Open 2012]

Re: US Open 2012

Janko Tipsarevic vs Phillip Kohlschreiber Tipsarevic -3.5 games 1.83 at Stan James (1.5 / 10 units)

Good start on my return to the tennis +1.25 units profit. For tonight i'm taking; Ana Ivanovic vs Serena Williams Over 17.5 Games 1.80 at Bet Victor (1 / 10 units) This line looks a little bit low for me, and I’ll take a chance on it. Slowly this year Ivanovic has been getting back to form, it started at the Aussie Open and she been able to continue the momentum for most of the year, particularly performing so much better at the slams than we’ve seen from her in the last couple of years. From what I’ve seen of her throughout the year, she’s seems a lot more confident in herself, and not struggling as much mentally on court, both things which have given her renewed energy for this push back up the rankings. Today she also has the bonus of being a huge underdog against Serena, no one is really expecting much and I think she’ll be looking at this as an opportunity to show the tennis world that she can still cut it at the highest level. Serena has had an easy run here, and she may be surprised by how improved Ana is at the moment. She still should win but I don’t think it will be as comfortable as the odds are suggesting. Ivanovic has been able to take 6 games or more of Serena on all the 3 previous occasions they’ve met, all on hard courts and twice at the US Open.

[US Open 2012]

Re: US Open 2012 With the Federer vs Fish bet voided due to the American's illness, lets try again with; Janko Tipsarevic vs Phillip Kohlschreiber Tipsarevic -3.5 games 1.83 at Stan James (1.5 / 10 units) I don’t think Tipsarevic is the type of player that you would want to play coming off the back of two very long 5 set matches that Kohlschrieber has done, especially Sunday nights gruelling match which didn’t finish until 2am local time. Tipsarevic has an aggressive game and will be looking to take the match to the German straight from the first serve. I can’t imagine a weary Kohlschreiber will be able to contain him for that long and I’m expecting a 4 set win for Tipsarevic at worst, which should hopefully cover this handicap. :hope

[US Open 2012]

Re: US Open 2012 With all the football in the last week, i've not had time to focus on the US Open until now. Will take my first bet tonight as; Roger Federer vs Mardy Fish Over 30.5 games in the match 1.73 at Paddy Power (2 /10 units) I believe Fish is in good enough form and fitness to give Roger a test here. In the 3 previous meetings between these two since Fish’s push up rankings in 2010, the American has been able to either take a set off Federer or push him to at least one tie break. Indeed he was able to do that just a couple of weeks ago at the Cinnincati event, and given Fish’s decent showing so far, coming back from 2 sets down to beat Davydenko and also taking out the 16^th seed Simon, the American will have a bit more confidence and momentum going into this clash and I can see no reason why he can’t do something similar tonight. This line is set a couple of games lower than elsewhere as well, which also caught my eye. :hope

[Serie A > September 1/2]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Some incredible picks on this and the Serie B thread this weekend. Everyone's on fire at the moment.

Genoa +0.75 1.79 at Bet Victor (2 /10 units) :\ Sampdoria to win 1.85 at William Hills (4 / 10 units) :ok Juventus to win 1.85 at William Hill (3.5 / 10 units) :ok

Happy with this. Shame Genoa couldn't hold on to the draw at the end, but think it was a bet with decent value non the less, and only a half loss anyway. Overall a +5.38 unit profit, to cap a good week for me.

[Serie A > September 1/2]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

Despite all the acclaim for Montella, Catania did finish last season poorly, winning just once in 11 games I believe loosing to the likes of Bologna and Leece at home. Whilst Montella went during the off season, most of the players remain and I’m not sure the quality is there. Upfront, they have a bit of skill but lack a goal scoring touch. Gomez has just 8 goals in 2 seasons at Catania, Bergessio has never been prolific since moving to Europe and Barrientos is more of a creator. The rest of the team is solid if uninspiring with perhaps the exception of Lodi, who I quite like as a player. In defence, they have Alvarez and Andular back from loans and have just sold Llama as well, so there are some defensive changes to consider as well. Watching the highlights and reading the match reports, it sounds like Genoa were really impressive in attack in their opening game. They created plenty of changes, scoring twice, but it should have been more and they missed a penalty as well. Immobile looked good, and a more than adequate replacement to the now departed Gilardino. Jankovic had a good game as well causing Cagliari plenty of problems. They’ve also boosted their attacking options with Borriello coming in, whilst he’s not been settled in the last couple of years, I fancy that his return to Genoa could produce a return to the kind of form that he made his name with five years ago. I feel that they can get goals against most teams with the attacking ability they have, and I would fancy them to score once or twice against Catania. If they can then it would make it very hard to Catania to get anything more than a draw out of this game. Whilst it must be said they Genoa did allow Cagliari plenty of opportunities to score themselves in that opening match, but Frey was in inspired form and a bit like with Cagliari I can’t see who is going to take the chances for Catania.

Well, another change in the odds in the Catania vs Genoa match, with the away team up to 4/1 at certain places. Genoa have been in my thoughts all week, and at these prices I think its worth a go to take them on the handicap. I can't see any immediate reason for the change in these odds. Genoa have a couple of injury doubts, but so do Catania. Genoa +0.75 1.79 at Bet Victor (2 /10 units)

[Serie B > September 1-3]

Re: Serie B > September 1-3 Yeah incredible stuff guys. Almost all winners on here last night. Given that 3 people went for Modena on the + handicap, I followed and wasn't disappointed. Thanks

[Serie A > September 1/2]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Did anyone see Catania last weekend? If so any thoughts? I'm still very interested in their match with Genoa on Sunday, either on the Genoa +0.5 at around 1.90, or maybe goals with the Genoa over 1.5 goals being priced at 3.5. The over 2.5 at evens is another one to consider as Kumanovac points out. Despite all the acclaim for Montella, Catania did finish last season poorly, winning just once in 11 games I believe loosing to the likes of Bologna and Leece at home. Whilst Montella went during the off season, most of the players remain and I’m not sure the quality is there. Upfront, they have a bit of skill but lack a goal scoring touch. Gomez has just 8 goals in 2 seasons at Catania, Bergessio has never been prolific since moving to Europe and Barrientos is more of a creator. The rest of the team is solid if uninspiring with perhaps the exception of Lodi, who I quite like as a player. In defence, they have Alvarez and Andular back from loans and have just sold Llama as well, so there are some defensive changes to consider as well. Watching the highlights and reading the match reports, it sounds like Genoa were really impressive in attack in their opening game. They created plenty of changes, scoring twice, but it should have been more and they missed a penalty as well. Immobile looked good, and a more than adequate replacement to the now departed Gilardino. Jankovic had a good game as well causing Cagliari plenty of problems. They’ve also boosted their attacking options with Borriello coming in, whilst he’s not been settled in the last couple of years, I fancy that his return to Genoa could produce a return to the kind of form that he made his name with five years ago. I feel that they can get goals against most teams with the attacking ability they have, and I would fancy them to score once or twice against Catania. If they can then it would make it very hard to Catania to get anything more than a draw out of this game. Whilst it must be said they Genoa did allow Cagliari plenty of opportunities to score themselves in that opening match, but Frey was in inspired form and a bit like with Cagliari I can’t see who is going to take the chances for Catania.

[Serie A > September 1/2]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 Well I think I’m going to take the chance on Juve. I’m a bit surprised that the price hasn’t dropped further, following that Champions League match and the fall out, especially with Guidolin missing training. The latest is that he appears to be staying on, but it has been a crazy week for them and with the focus up until Tuesday night being on Braga, I don’t know how prepared they will be for this match, especially with the manager not taking training. Fitness wise might be the biggest problem, they’ve struggled in the second halves of all their matches this season, and having had 120 hard minutes on Tuesday, it’s likely that a number of players may be rested for this one. The early info we’re getting indicates that its possible that Domizzi, Benatia, Pinzi, Fabbrini & Armero may not start. When you look at the team that could start and the situation around the club at the moment I just can’t see any hope for Udinese in this match. Juve on the other hand have got off to a good start this season, with a couple of wins in the league and the Supper Coppa. Whilst the still remain on the lookout for a new striker, they more or less still have the same strike force that were the second highest scorers in Serie A last season and Giovinco has been added into the mix as well. Defensive wise they perhaps haven’t been as impressive so far, they conceded twice to Napoli and whilst they kept a clean sheet vs Parma, the away side did cause them a few troubles. However Buffon and Cheillini, two stalwarts should be back for this game and Udinese are not the most offensive team anyway. It will also be interesting to see how Udinese cope with Lichtstiener. He was marshalled well by Armero in this fixture last season, but if the Colombian doesn’t start then I think he may cause them a lot of problems. He’s started the season on fire against Parma, winning a penalty and scoring and he’s the type of player who is key in exploiting the space on wings left by a 3 man defence. Domizzi may not start either and he also plays on that side of defence. Juventus to win 1.85 at William Hill (3.5 / 10 units)

[Serie A > September 1/2]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2

I also agree with Azzurini’s and Ultravires thoughts on Samp. Siena looked really poor vs Torino and they allowed a pretty mediocre side to dominate them and were probably lucky they didn’t have enough creativity / firepower to get a win. Samp looked strong in midfield vs Milan, Poli is a classy player and Obiang and Tissone look combative and I would expect them to get a hold of this game, just like Torino did. If they can then they have players with a bit of quality upfront who should be able to get goals. The home win is around 1.85 now, not great odds but something that looks very likely.

Have just taken Sampdoria to win 1.85 at William Hills (4 / 10 units). For all the reasons stated above and by others in this thread. Having watched Udinese again tonight they were no better than in the first leg vs Braga and i've got huge concerns for them this season. The whole of the last month / pre season has been focused on CL qualification, but they've failed to get that and you wonder how they will be able to pick themselves up from that. Could we see more players going before the window shuts (Armero has been in the rumor mill all summer, so could go I guess. It may be best after tonight misses, he looked distraught at the end), could we see the manager go? It may sound over the top but Guidolin has stated previously that he finds the stress of the job hard and you imagine he may have stayed around to have a go in the Champions League, but again they've missed the boat and if they keep selling his best players then he's unlikely to get another chance anytime soon you would feel. Even of none of that happens they will be at least be physically and emotionally knackered for the Juve game, and its not a team you want to be playing in that state as you'll always be chasing the ball. In normal circumstances I wouldn't have bothered with Juve at such low odds, but after seeing what Udinese are offering this season I might go back for a second look at what's available.

[England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30]

Re: England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30

Ipswich to qualify 1.73 at Bet 365 (3.5 /10 units) :( West Brom to win 1.83 at Ladbrokes (3.5 / 10 units) :ok Villa -0.5AH 1.53 at Bet365 (5 /10 units):ok

Ipswich spoiling the card a little by giving away a injury time equaliser and then going on to lose in extra time. However still +2.1 units profits for the evenings League Cup action. Well done other winners. Some good calls on overs and on Sunderland in here. Need to have a look at team news but Wolves still look a decent price for Thursday.

[Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August]

Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August

I have decided to back Braga here as despite the result Braga did control the game in the first leg. In the first half they probed but struggled to create chances but in the second half they were much better in doing this, got the goal and perhaps should have got more. To control the play and create as many chances as they did against Udinese is pretty impressive, as they are one of the most organised teams in Serie A, with a combative midfield, and a great backline, and this bodes well for the return leg. I can’t see Udinese’s tactics being that different than they were in Braga, they played for the draw there and with that away goal will probably play for the (0-0) draw here. With the lack of offensive options they have its unlikely they’ll be that attacking anyway. If Pinzi regains his fitness (he’s been included in the squad) then we are likely to see the same team as the first leg, with Fabbrini supporting Di Natalie as well. If they do play and line up like this then the first leg showed us that Braga are capable of causing them problems and in all honesty I expect them to have most of the ball again (was 60% in the first leg) and create chances. If they do score then this is when Udinese will have to react but you can argue that a more open Udinese side will allow Braga even more chances if they have to lose the defensive discipline. Another concern I would have for Udinese is the match fitness of the players, the performance tailed off in both the first leg and against Fiorentina at the weekend and on both occasions this allowed the opposition to get back into the game. It’s going to be another warm evening in Udine tomorrow and there is potential for this to happen again. Many of the first 11 have only played one competitive match this season (the first leg of this one) compared to Braga who have a couple more matches to get back up to fitness. Braga to win or draw 1.80 at Skybet (3.5 /10 units)

A fully deserved qualification for Braga, who were so much better over the two legs. 1-1 after 90 mins means bet won and +2.8 units profit. :ok

[Serie A > September 1/2]

Re: Serie A > September 1/2 I’ve not had much time to ponder these but my early thoughts are;

• Pescara look a little over priced in the battle of the two newly promoted teams. I saw most of there match with Inter and they played ok in the opening stages. The two quick goals took the drive out of them, but they stayed focused and forced a number of decent saves from Castallezzi throughout the match. Torino dominated against Siena, but looked a little toothless in front of goal, not creating too many clear cut chances. I feel this game could be tight, and don’t see the reason for such a big difference in odds. The +0.5 or maybe +1 AH on Pescara could be worth a look depending on price.

• I also agree with Azzurini’s and Ultravires thoughts on Samp. Siena looked really poor vs Torino and they allowed a pretty mediocre side to dominate them and were probably lucky they didn’t have enough creativity / firepower to get a win. Samp looked strong in midfield vs Milan, Poli is a classy player and Obiang and Tissone look combative and I would expect them to get a hold of this game, just like Torino did. If they can then they have players with a bit of quality upfront who should be able to get goals. The home win is around 1.85 now, not great odds but something that looks very likely.

• Also might have a further look at both Atalanta and Genoa in there away games. Atalanta were decent on the road last season, before there campaign ran out of steam. However they have managed to keep most of their key players and have a tactical style which is ideal for away matches. Cagliari are normally quite slow starters and only won one of their first 8 home matches last season. They didn’t impress last weekend either and it looks as if Larrivey might be on his way to Udinese as well. So I might have a look at Atalanta on the handicap here.

• Genoa attacking wise looked very impressive against Cagliari last Sunday. Jankovic and Immobile creating lots of chances and they really should have scored more than they did. If they keep putting in attacking performances like that then they will cause a lot of problems to teams on the road. They also have Gilardino to come back into the fold as well. Again handicaps may be worth a look, but also goals. Despite creating many chances last week, they let Cagliairi have a fair few opportunities themselves and some good saves from Frey kept them in it. Catania played out that 2-2 draw with Roma , and whilst I didn’t see the game I doubt they will be as well organised as a team as they were with Montella at the helm.

Again overall there does seem to be quite a lot that interest this weekend. I’ve ruled out Napoli at the moment but if Fiorentina were to lose Jovetic and Nastastic his week then it may be worth looking at at Napoli again. I do also feel that Palermo may also be a bit too high, but Azzurini is right to point out the iffy looking defence. However if they could get Illicic and Brienza back fit for the weekend then they could cause Lazio’s defence some problems. I’m not sure what the fitness of those two is at the moment but the overs might be worth a look if they are available. Milan is an interesting one too. On paper the odds look high against a lower mid table team without 2 key players, but I’m worried that Allegri has lost the plot / patience with the board. His team selection and tactical decisions were pretty poor in that Sampdoria game. Who knows what he might do next.

[Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August]

Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August I have decided to back Braga here as despite the result Braga did control the game in the first leg. In the first half they probed but struggled to create chances but in the second half they were much better in doing this, got the goal and perhaps should have got more. To control the play and create as many chances as they did against Udinese is pretty impressive, as they are one of the most organised teams in Serie A, with a combative midfield, and a great backline, and this bodes well for the return leg. I can’t see Udinese’s tactics being that different than they were in Braga, they played for the draw there and with that away goal will probably play for the (0-0) draw here. With the lack of offensive options they have its unlikely they’ll be that attacking anyway. If Pinzi regains his fitness (he’s been included in the squad) then we are likely to see the same team as the first leg, with Fabbrini supporting Di Natalie as well. If they do play and line up like this then the first leg showed us that Braga are capable of causing them problems and in all honesty I expect them to have most of the ball again (was 60% in the first leg) and create chances. If they do score then this is when Udinese will have to react but you can argue that a more open Udinese side will allow Braga even more chances if they have to lose the defensive discipline. Another concern I would have for Udinese is the match fitness of the players, the performance tailed off in both the first leg and against Fiorentina at the weekend and on both occasions this allowed the opposition to get back into the game. It’s going to be another warm evening in Udine tomorrow and there is potential for this to happen again. Many of the first 11 have only played one competitive match this season (the first leg of this one) compared to Braga who have a couple more matches to get back up to fitness. Braga to win or draw 1.80 at Skybet (3.5 /10 units)

[England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30]

Re: England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30 Totally agree on West Brom. The price has dropped a tiny bit from when I mentioned them earlier in the thread but they still look good value at 5/6. Clarke may make a few changes but I doubt he will do anything drastic, and there should be 5 or so of the first 11 from Saturday still in the team. As RedDevil points out both the manager Clarke and James Morrison have spoke this week about wanting to have a good cup run and similar to my thoughts on Fulham they look well placed to do so. They have a good squad and early performances in the league would suggest that they will be comfortable enough to not have any major worries this season. West Brom to win 1.83 at Ladbrokes (3.5 / 10 units) Will also take Villa as well, give the rise in price to 5/9 now. There is no suggestion that Lambert will make major changes other than for the suspended Clark. He doesn’t have the squad capable of rotating anyway, and I think his first 11 need a lot more practice together after that performance on the weekend. They did play a little better in the last 30 minutes or so and I’m sure he’ll put out a similar team to try and regain that impetus. It will also be important to get a win and a decent performance in front of the home fans. Villa -0.5AH 1.53 at Bet365 (5 /10 units)

[England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30]

Re: England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30 Ok, so I’ve just taken Ipswich to qualify against Carlisle. All the reports I’ve read regards this match seem to indicate that Jewell will go with a strong side with the aim to bounce back from that weekend defeat vs Blackpool. Prior to that things had been going ok for Ipswich, and on paper to me they look a decent enough outfit. They have no new injury worries from the weekend so Jewell does have a full squad to pick from. Carlisle have a few more issues with two of the first eleven from Saturdays win over Pompey unlikely to play. Cadamarteri has picked up a knock, and Jake Jervis a young winger from Birmingham won’t play as per the terms of his loan agreement. Ipswich to qualify 1.73 at Bet 365 (3.5 /10 units) Still mulling over Villa and West Brom bets as well.

[Italy - Serie A > August 25-26]

Re: Italy - Serie A > August 25-26 Well the two most effective players in pre season in terms of creating and getting the ball forward were Illicic and Brienza and both were injured. Illicic never started and Brienza went off after about 25 minutes I recall.

[Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August]

Re: Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August I still think Braga have just as good a chance of qualifying for this match as Udinese do, so a bit surprised to see such a difference in odds between the two. Udinese played well in the first leg, but with that away goal there is a good chance that Guidolin's team may just sit back and try and hold on to that advantage. Its a dangerous game, and whilst they looked a solid enough team in that first leg, I still have doubts about the central midfield. Pinzi is doubtful at the moment and didn't train today, which leaves it looking likely that two or maybe three of the new summer signings will all start. That central mid position is probably the most important in the Udinese team, in terms of breaking up play and having an understanding about who commits themselves forward at anyone time. Whilst the new guys will develop i'm sure, its a tough ask for them to come in play at the standard of Asamoah & Pinzi etc immediatly. If they make mistakes, and leave space even just a few times this skillful Braga team could take advantage. The Braga +0.5 at around 1.83 is something to consider I feel.

[Champions League Qualifiers - 28-29 August]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Tuesday 28 August 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Anderlecht v AEL Limassol (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.48[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Hapoel Ironi Kiryat-Shmona v FC BATE Borisov (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.58[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]NK Maribor v Dinamo Zagreb (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.87[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.36 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Panathinaikos v Málaga (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.94[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.05 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Udinese v Sporting de Braga (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.03[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Wednesday 29 August 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Celtic v Helsingborgs IF (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.56[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.69 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]CFR Cluj v FC Basel (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Dynamo Kyiv v Borussia Mönchengladbach (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.92[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.62 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Fenerbahçe SK v Spartak Moscow (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.37[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.13 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Lille OSC v FC København (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.46[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.11 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Italy - Serie A > August 25-26]

Re: Italy - Serie A > August 25-26 Great start Azzurini, more excellent picks from you. As for me a bit of a mixed bag, but still minimal profit & extra beer money for the bank holiday. Can't believe the Siena match ended 0-0!

Siena vs Torino – over 2.5 goals 2.38 at William Hills (3 / 10 units) :\ Inter to win 1.91 at William Hill (4 / 10 units) :ok

+0.64 units

[England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30]

Re: Capital One Cup > 28th August Looking at the actual fixtures there are few things that jump out immediately, that I’ll be investigating further. The first is Villa vs Tranmere with Villa priced at 1.50 now. Not great odds, but despite the troubled start to the season I expect Villa to prevail here. After those performances there is a good chance that Lambert will put out his best team, as they clearly need more time together to gel. They looked a bit better in the second half vs Everton and it’s not unlikely that Lambert will stick with that team to keep the momentum of that performance going. I also quite like the look of Fulham at 2.50 . Fulham have got themselves a good squad and I think the two performances we’ve seen from Jol’s side already have signalled that they will be more than comfortable in the league this season. That might then give them a bit of freedom to have a cup run, as that’s something they’ve not done domestically in a while. Even if they do decide to mix things up a little they have decent players like Rodagella, Kasami, Frei etc to come in. I’m not underestimating Wednesday here but Fulham look a team well placed for a run in this competition. There are some decent prices on a few other Premiership teams to that are worth looking at. On paper Southampton (2.2) & West Brom (1.91) seem nicely priced. Even with a few changes I would fancy these two team to have too much form lower league opposition, especially West Brom, who will probably start Lukaku, Brunt, Rosenborg etc. I also think Ipswich at 2.6 might be a decent shout. Despite the 6-0 at the weekend, they are not a bad side and should assuming they put out a strong team be able to beat Carlisle. Again like with Villa its not unlikely that Jewell will field a strong team in this one to try and regain some form & confidence. Wolves (2.30) away at league two Northampton also is worth looking at and whilst the odds are not great on Leeds (1.50), they normally take cups quite seriously and have quite an easyish tie vs Oxford at home. In terms of upsets, I don’t see too much. Maybe Swindon at 6.5’s to beat Stoke, but even then that’s probably not as high as I would have liked for a League 1 vs Prem clash. Obviously these are just early thoughts, and i'll take a day or to mull them over. Any info from lower league punters would be greatly appreciated.

[Liverpool v Man City > Sun 26 August]

Re: Liverpool v Man City > Sun 26 August

Man City 0AH 1.83 at Bet365 ( 6.5 / 10 units)

BET VOID Phew, Mancini's tactical changes and selection almost screwed me over but thankfully Skertel and Tevez saved the day. Well done to Liverpool and the overs backers.