[Italy - Serie A > August 25-26]

Re: Italy - Serie A > August 25-26 Great stuff Das Phantom and Azzurini in getting on early and backing Samp. They didn't look great, but very organised which was all that was required against a very poor Milan. I agree that Obiang was the stand out, comparing his performances to Flamini's doesnt reflect well on the Frenchman. Lets hope for more profit in here tonight.

[Italian Antepost - 2012-13]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Well as Napoli were still at 9/1 yesterday to finish best of the rest excluding Juve, I took a small bet on them. It’s only a small stake as the competition is very tight this season, but it will be exciting to follow throughout the season. I’ll also have little flutter on the top goalscorer market, with money going on Napoli again with Cavani. I know Napoli lost Gargano this week, which is a blow but I do feel that they still strong enough to challenge. They’ve brought Behrami who can put himself about and Dzemeli is also competent enough to fit into the team. Its also likely that we may be seeing a bit more of a defensive Napoli team this season, with just 2 upfront and 5 in midfield (Hamsik likely to drop back)and the fit again Britos coming in to defence to replace the error prone Aronica. Whilst they weren’t awful in defence last season, they did concede a lot more than their other title challengers (46 goals compared 20 from Juve, 35 from Milan and 33 from Udinese) and they do need to see some improvements there. This may come at the detriment of the attack, but they still have great attacking threats with Hamsik from midfield and Cavani up top. He will be well supported by Pandev and exciting Insigne, who will create and contribute goals. However without Lavezzi’s goals (9 last season) and with Hamsik (also 9 last season) further back its obvious the focal point will almost all of the time have to be Cavani, even more so than previous years. With 24 goals to his name last season, he could get similar figures this season I feel. Napoli to finish best of the rest (exc Juve) 10.0 at Bet Victor (1.5 / 10 units) Cavani to be top goal scorer 8.0 at Skybet (1.5 / 10 units) Just to go through some of the other teams / players I ruled out; Ultravires write up re Milan is excellent and my thoughts are very similar. I can’t see any way in which they can challenge for the title with the defensive areas the way they are. They may be fine against the lesser teams but could struggle to pick points up against top 7-8 teams. Their attack still on paper does look good and I think Pazzini will get goals, but he’s never got over 19 in the league so it might be tough to ask him to better than in his first season with a new club. With Pato and El Shaawary on the bench there could be a bit of rotation as well. Inter are looking very good, much better than last season. Whilst they could do with one or two new faces particularly in defence / midfield, my main concern is with the manager. He seems to be doing a great job at the moment and has the players on side but he is very inexperienced at this level and it will be a difficult learning curve particularly when we get well into the season for him to manage 3 competitions, players not happy being on the bench etc. Upfront they have some excellent players, and all 4 key men (Sniejder, Cassano, Milito, Palacio) will get goals but they will probably share the load more so than Napoli I feel. Juve look good for the title, but they are still obviously unhappy with the striking options they have and remain keen to get another man in. At the moment Llorente seems to be the likely candidate, and with any new signing, especially one from a different league it will always be tough to ask them to make an immediate impact. Looking at the line up Fiorentina have, especially in midfield with Valero, Aquilani, Llajic, Jovetic & Pizzaro all being able to pass well and inter-change with each other I expect a more controlled possesion game from Fiorentina this season. This should make them hard to beat, but despite two goals last night I can’t see them or any of their players being prolific this season. How Roma will perform this season is still anyones guess. With Zemen in charge it promises goals, but whilst it might make them the most fun team to watch, I’m not sure it necessary guarantees success. I also feel, a bit like with Inter that they have a number of players that can get goals, not just Destro and Osvaldo but Totti, Lamel & Bojan off the bench and so I can’t see one individual who would be getting 20+ goals. I also don’t expect Udinese to be as good this year and that should have an affect on the number of goals Di Natalie gets. Note - I've just checked before posting and the exc Juve market has disappeared from Victor's website for the time being. Hopefully they put it back up for as the odds were decent for a number of sides.

[Liverpool v Man City > Sun 26 August]

Re: Liverpool v Man City > Sun 26 August Totally agree with those backing City today. I can’t see much point in looking at past results and stats because Liverpool are (or are at least trying to be) a completely changed outfit in personnel and in tactics from previous seasons. I’m a big fan of Rodgers and I admire his pluck to take on this challenge and I hope he succeeds but at the moments there are very few encouraging signs. They were poor in mid week vs Hearts, and probably even worse the weekend before against West Brom. Sure they had some decent spells in that game, but at other times in the second half they looked awful, the players making stupid mistakes and clearly many of them were not on the same wavelength yet. In this league if you have spells like that then you will get punished even against average teams like West Brom. I can’t see things being any different today, and perhaps the added pressure of playing at home will be just as likely a detriment to some of the players than a help, especially if the crowd start to get on their backs if a few passes go astray etc. To make matters worse they’ve got a problem in defence with Agger out. Carragher is the likely replacement apparently, but I feel that maybe Coates may be the better options. Either way both aren’t a patch on Agger. Johnson may well have to continue at left back as well in the absence of Jose Enrique. Don’t need to talk much about City, even with Aguero out they will carry a huge attacking threat. They were able to score 4 without him last weekend, so I’m not overly concerned about his loss for this game. I also expect Mancini to tighten the defence a little after conceding twice last weekend. If they play to anywhere near there what they are capable of then they’ll have this in the bag. The odds on the 0AH is tasty enough to me to take, as I see this as being a completely no risk option. Man City 0AH 1.83 at Bet365 ( 6.5 / 10 units)

[Italy - Serie A > August 25-26]

Re: Italy - Serie A > August 25-26 The price on Samp has fallen to 8.0 now, and the +1.5AH has also dropped to the point where it doesn’t interest me anymore. Milans problems this season are all going to be in defence, and whilst I’m sure many teams will be able to get at them, I have doubts as to whether Sampdoria will. Lopez at the time of writing is a doubt for this game with a back issue, I also believe there are question marks of Estigarribia’s fitness, and Eder (who was pretty poor for Cesena) has only just returned from an injury himself. Defensively they are a bit stronger, but Milans attacking options are still good (Boateng, Robinho, Pazzini) so for me Samp would need a goal to be comfortable with a +1.5, and I’m not that optimistic about that, so it’s a no bet for me. From what’s left, Cagliairi +0.5AH and Udinese +0.5AH still interest me, but at the moment I’m mainly drawn to Inter. The price has risen to 1.91 which looks decent for a team who have in both their away Europa League ties displayed professional performances, without having to over exert themselves. Given the early stage of the season I’m not too concerned about fatigue from a mid week game, and with the new additions of Cassano and Gargano especially they can come in and with the knowledge and experience of the league they have I imagine they should be able to settle in almost immediately. Neither Sneijder or Milito played a full game midweek either, and there are also decent players in reserve like Perierra, Coutinho & Samuel who can come in and do a job against lesser quality opposition like Pescara. Maybe it’s a bit of a risk betting against Pescara as they are pretty much an unknown quantity to me. The manager and a lot of key players have gone over the summer, replaced by younger faces and like with any example of a complete squad overhaul it may take Pescara some time to gel as a team whereas Inter to me have grown as a team over the summer and look very capable of mounting a good challenge this season. A front 6 of Guarin, Cambiasso, Gargano, Sneijder, Cassano, Milito looks much too strong for Pescara. Inter to win 1.91 at William Hill (4 / 10 units)

[Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23]

Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23 Excellent work H1, a fantastic profit there

Inter to win 1.80 at Stan James ( 4.5 / 10 units)

:ok Got a win for myself +3.6 units for my first PL bet of the season. Well done all other winners tonight.

[Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23]

Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23 Just a word on Lazio, the starting line up is likely to be a reasonably attacking 4-3-3 for tonights match, something that the new manager Petkovic has been working on in pre season. Klose should start, flanked by Mauri and apparently Candreva. The also have the creative Hernandes and the set piece ablity of Ledesma likely to start in midfield. Whilst i'm not convinced that Candreva should be playing as wide as seems likely, its still a good bunch of players and should they click together then goals will come. The only problem is that so far in pre-season, in all but the last friendly game vs Malmo they have struggled to score when faced with better quality opposition. They haven't scored (and lost) against Siena, Torino, Galatasary or Getafe. Its hard to gage that much from friendly matches, but it does seem that things are understandably still a work in progress under the new manager, and for me at these odds its not worth taking the risk, especially on the handicap. I think there are better options in other matches tonight. Defensivly i've never rated Lazio either, and whilst i'm not sure Mura will test them that much, the likes of Dias do have mistakes in them, and on top of this we are likely to see a couple of youngsters starting. Cavanda at left back will make only his 5th appearance for the club and the midfielder Onazi likely to make his starting debut.

[Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23]

Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23 As I expected the Inter squad is a strong one, they have a couple of new injuries with Chivu and Handanovic out but its only really the GK thats a loss. Goalkeepers: 12 Castellazzi, 27 Belec, 32 Cincilla; Defenders: 4 Zanetti, 6 Silvestre, 13 Maicon, 23 Ranocchia, 25 Samuel, 40 Juan Jesus, 42 Jonathan, 44 Bianchetti, 55 Nagatomo; Midfielders: 10 Sneijder, 14 Guarin, 16 Mudingayi, 19 Cambiasso; Forwards: 7 Coutinho, 8 Palacio, 22 Milito, 88 Livaja. From this I would expect a line up similar to this; Castellazzi, Zannetti or Maicon - Samuel - Silvestre or Ranocchia - Nagatomo Guarin - Cambiasso - Mudingayi or Zannetti Sneijder Palacio - Milito That will be pretty similar to the one that won 3-0 in Split, and would give them a couple of decent options on the bench if things weren't going there way. However I don't expect that to happen, Inter I feel will do a professional job here, get as comfortable of a scoreline as possible which will give them a little bit of lee-way to rotate in the second leg, prior to that Roma game. Vaslui, were well beaten at home (4-1) to Fenerbache in the return leg of there Champions League tie, and that result combined with a sluggish start to the season for them doesn't suggest that they'll be able to match Inter in this one. Inter to win 1.80 at Stan James ( 4.5 / 10 units)

[Champions League Qualifiers > August 21-22]

Re: Champions League Qualifiers > August 21-22 Some excellent calls in here tonight guys, well done. Still undecided about whether or not to take Braga. I'm sure Udinese will be playing for the draw, as they've left one of there only 'flair' players Muriel back at home. They'll either go to a straight 4-5-1 with the extra man in midfield, or use Fabbrini as the support striker. He's a hard worker but not known for this goal threat. The big question is whether Braga have enough to break through, and i'm going to take more time to dwell on that. At 2.30 its certainly tempting.

[Italy - Serie A > August 25-26]

Re: Italy - Serie A > August 25-26 Right, I’ve taken the overs in the Siena match for all the reasons stated previously. Siena vs Torino – over 2.5 goals 2.38 at William Hills (3 / 10 units) Will probably just take one more before the weekend is out. Napoli did interest me, but I quite like Sannino as a coach and I think he’ll have Palermo well organised, working hard and a much better defensive unit despite the players they’ve lost this summer. I’ve followed them reasonably closely in pre season and they’ve had some good results and performances particularly in their last friendly when they beat Parma 4-1. From what I’ve heard Sannino has been working on a couple of tactical options, a 4-4-2 and a flexible 3-5-2 which impressed vs Parma. With both formations the defence has looked well organised, and with the 3-5-2 they were able to make it a 5-3-2 when defending and Parma struggled to find space. Going forward they’ve passd the ball well, looked functional and Illicic has been impressive by all accounts. If they can get him anywhere near the form of a couple of seasons ago that’ll be a huge boost for them and the signs are good at the moment. Brienza has also settled in easily. Anyway I think we’ll see a different Palermo this season, much more pragmatic and well organised and Napoli could be the first of many teams who struggle to break them down.

[Italy - Serie A > August 25-26]

Re: Serie A - 25-26 August Probably won’t end up taking much on this first weekend, but there are a few things that do jump out; The main game taking my fancy, perhaps a little surprisingly is the Siena vs Torino game. Serse Cosmi is now at Siena, after getting relegated with Leece last season. It’s a real contrast of styles with Cosmi coming in and Sannino going out. Sannino’s team was composed and well organised whilst Cosmi has quite the madcap style. It will be interesting to see if his methods fit with the players Sannino left him (there is not much money to go out and buy anyone) and I imagine we could see a few sketchy performances in the opening set of games whilst the players get used to the style. Cosmi’s also had to bring in a number of new defenders, to replace those lost following the match fixing trials. Pre season has actually gone ok for Siena, but the mad cap style has been evident, in the friendly vs Perugia (3-1 win) and in last nights Coppa Itallia tie with Vicenzia (4-2) where they allowed the third tier team to take the lead and then fell asleep after taking a 2-1 lead allowing Vicenzia to equalise almost immediately. At the very least I’m expecting some higher scoring matches early on for Siena, so the odds of 2.39 on over 2.5 goals, I may take a punt on that. Torino, whilst not particularly high scorers in Serie B last year has brought in some creative players over the summer in Santana and Verdi, and are likely to line up relatively attacking, with Gazzetta suggesting a 4-2-4 formation. Bianchi will always be able to get goals as well. They’ve banged in the goals in pre season, and also had a 4-2 win vs Leece in the cup at the weekend. I don't personally think the odds on Torino are big enough to tempt either on the outright or handicaps. Elsewhere I agree that Samp are a bit too high vs Milan. I’m really worried about Milan for this season, the fact that Cassano has asked for a move (is is looking likely to get one) is also a concern given the big names they’ve lost this summer (either sold or retired). I don’t think Allegri is happy at the moment, and the sale of all these players is likely to have a demoralising impact on the players. Will Samp be able to get a win, that’s probably unlikely but with at odds of 10.2, there may be some options on handicaps. I also feel Bologna and Cagliari look a bit long in there away games. Even with the potential loss of Ramirez, Bologna still look an organised unit. The finished the season strongly last year, ending up in 9^th and Pioli looks a good fit for the club. Chievo are similarly well organised but will certainly miss Bradley who was excellent for them last year. I’m not anticipating an exciting game, a draw may be likely, but you could also look at Bologna +0.5 for instance. The same applies for Cagliari, who have kept all the core of their team and could trouble a changed Genoa side who don’t look to me that much better than last season despite the changes. They certainly were made to toil against Verona in the cup last weekend, losing on penalties and I think that could be a sign to come for them Atalanta are also a possibility, but thats more the fact that i don't rate this Lazio team at all. But with a new manager it may be worth holding fire to see if he can offer them a bit more stability.

[Italy - Serie A > August 25-26]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 25 August 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Fiorentina v Udinese (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Juventus v Parma (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 26 August 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]AC Milan v Sampdoria (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.78 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]AS Roma v Catania (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.44[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Atalanta v Lazio (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Chievo v Bologna (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.22[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.77 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Genoa v Cagliari (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.28 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Palermo v Napoli (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Pescara v Internazionale (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.95 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Siena v Torino (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.32[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.25 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23]

Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23 Its always worth waiting for squad news, but a couple of matches stand out here; Vaslui vs Inter - Inter took a strong squad to Split for there away leg in the previous round and I would expect something similar. If they did then a comprehensive victory seems likely. I'm pretty sure that they will want a good margin to take into the second leg, as that game comes before a match against Roma and I'm sure they would want to rest a few players with that game in mind. Given the size of the squad Inter have and the opportunity it gives Stramaccioni to blood some of the youngster that brought him success as a youth team manager, I expect that Inter will be wanting to have a good run in this competition and so reaching the group stages is important to ensure thats possible. Whilst I await squad news the 1.75 for an Inter win looks nice and it may be worth looking at the handicap market as well. Vaslui have had a stuttering start to their league campaign and were dumped out of the CL 5-2 on aggregate to Fenerbahce. Atromitos vs Newcastle - it would be good to hear Newcastle fans views on how seriously they will be taking this Europa League campaign, but similar to Inter I think they should have enough depth to give a good account of themselves even if a few players are rested. There are plenty of experienced players like Ryan Taylor, Gosling, Anita, Obertan,and Williamson etc that can come in and do well enough to at least be beating a team at the level of Atromitos. Also with the injury doubts upfront I would expect to see atleast one of Ba or Cisse starting in this first leg. Newcastle are currently at 2.25 to win this one.

[Coppa Italia 3rd round]

Re: Coppa Italia 3rd round Great call on Cesena, Azzurini. Had a small punt on Cagliairi myself, which paid off thanks to stoppage time strike by Larrivey.

[Champions League Qualifiers > August 21-22]

Re: Champions League Qualifiers > August 21-22 For those that don't know Udinese have lost another 3 key players this summer, with midfielders Asamoah and Isla moving to Juventus and the excellent keeper Handanovic moving to Inter. Whilst I have no doubt that the replacements that manager Guidolin has brought (with a couple of others also returning from loans) will in time be able to replace those losses, its likely that they may struggle in the early stages of the season. I think realistically they will be a top 6-10 team in Serie A this season, and I would fancy Braga to have enough over the tie to make it through. Any insight from Portuguese league followers would be appreciated but at the moment, with odds of 2.2 to qualify and 2.3 to win this first leg, Braga do tempt me.

[Newcastle v Spurs Saturday 18th August 2012]

Re: Newcastle v Spurs Saturday 18th August 2012 This looks a no bet now. Newcastle have got everyone back fit.

[Newcastle v Spurs Saturday 18th August 2012]

Re: Newcastle v Spurs Saturday 18th August 2012 Always need to be mindful betting on the first weekends action but given the current injury doubts that Newcastle have, I do feel Spurs are nicely priced here. If Ba and Cisse are out, and with Cabeye and Ben Arfa also doubtful then RedDevil is right, it will be very tough for Newcastle to make a breakthrough here. With Vertonghan brought in over the summer, Spurs do look in better defensive shape, and they are likely to continue with 2 deeper lying midfielders (Sandro and Livermore probably for this one) to offer protection to the defence. This I would suggest should be enough to keep a weakened Newcastle under control. Going forward Spurs do have questions over them. It will be interesting to see how they adapt without the guile of Modric, and I don't believe that Defoe and possibly even Lennon are the type of player that AVB wants in the long run but they still have enough raw pace and quality of trouble Newcastle and they for me are the more likely victors here. I will wait for more team news, but at 2.0 the Spurs DNB option is tempting.

[Coppa Italia 3rd round]

Re: Coppa Italia 3rd round Only had a quick read of the odds, but Cagliari seem decent value here. At the moment they've around 1.78 best price. They are taking a strong squad up to Trieste for this match, and the likely starting eleven is probably going to be something like; Agazzi; Pisano, Rossettini, Astori, Avelar; Dessena, Nainggolan, Ekdal; Cossu, Pinilla, Thiago Ribeiro. With the exception of the suspended Conti and maybe the returning Sau that is arguably the team thats going to start as first choice this season, so looks decent enough to overcome Spezia you would feel. Have to admit to not knowing too much about Spezia. Topped LP1 last season, but looking at the squad there does seem to have been a number of new faces (mainly loanees brought in) which may suggest that they may need seem time to gel again as a team. It would be interesting to hear Azzurini or indeed anyone else's views on Spezia / this match? I also feel that Perugia might be a little over priced as well, and it could be worth looking at double chance / +0.5 markets to see what prices are around.

[Italian Antepost - 2012-13]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Have just seen that BetVictor have Napoli at 9/1 to be the best of the rest (excluding Juve). Its way too early to take anything but that will be something i'll consider if its still at the price nearer the time and Cavani is still there. I imagine you'll be able to get around 3/1 on a top 3 finish as well.

[Italian Antepost - 2012-13]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Thats an interesting point, and they still have Pandev and the winter buy Vargas as well who can come in. Whether anyone of them individually are able to step up into Lavezzi role is a big question but at least they have options to mix it up. The more I think about it the more I do fancy Napoli as the best of the rest. The additions of Behrami and Gamberini from Fiorentina should help strengthen the squad a little bit more defensively . Hopefully it means we may see less of Aronica this season. Its a shame that Pescara haven't been able to keep any of Immobile, Insigne, Veratti or there manager Zemen. They provided plenty of entertainment in Serie B last year but with 46 goals between them Immobile and Insigne will be missed. Wiess is a decent signing for them but I don't think its enough at the moment and they are likely to struggle. Had they kept the same team I would have fancied them to keep out of a relegation battle but that seems unlikely now.

[Italian Antepost - 2012-13]

Re: Italian Antepost - 2012-13 Really looking forward to another season in Serie A. Its good to see a bit of discussion on here already, so here are my thoughts for whatever they are worth. Its a bit long so apologies in advance. The big news from yesterday is that Conte has been given a 10 month ban, so is out of match day management for this season. Whilst Conte will appeal I don’t think the Italian FA are going to budge too much on this decision, and it’s a blow for Juve. How big of one it is I’m still not sure and I’ll guess that we’ll have to wait to find out. Juve certainly looked strong against Napoli in the Super Coppa on Friday, and from what the club and players are saying they are determined to succeed in honour of Conte. They have strengthened extremely well in the summer, moving quickly to secure the hard working Asamoah and Isla from Udinese, and have since added a couple more faces to bring even more depth to what was already the best squad in the league. Don’t forget as well that the atomic ant himself Giovinco is also back and in this team should be able to at least match his goal scoring records from his time at Parma. So overall I think Juve will still be too strong for everyone else in this league, but I don’t expect the dominance to be as strong as it was last year without Conte. However at best price 2.38, I’m not sure whether these are tasty enough for an antepost bet. After Juve , the rest of the league is as always tough to predict with a lot of big teams fighting out for only a couple of other Champions League spots. Last season Milan and Udinese grabbed the last two spots but I think both will struggle to do something similar this year. Milan are screwed at the moment unless they can use some of the PSG money to get immediate replacements for Silva and Ibra. Given that both are more less the best in the world at their positions that’s going to be a tough task. Zapata has come in to the defence but I never rated him all that much when he was at Udinese and they certainly never missed him last season. Their current back line and defensive midfielders are so poor when compared to Milan teams of the past and I’m pretty sure they will unable mount the same challenge as last season. They’ve also lost 28 goals with Ibra moving and whilst I remain in hope that Pato finds his goal scoring touch it’s a big ask. Udinese have again this summer cemented there place as a feeder team to Serie A’s big boys. As mentioned earlier they have lost Asamoah & Isla to Juve and the keeper Handanovic has also moved onto Inter . That’s another 3 key men gone to join the three they lost the summer before and whilst Guidolin did an amazing job to cope last year I think this might finally be too much to deal with. I expect a reasonable campaign, Guidolins outfights are always hard working and defensively sound but Champions League qualification is unlikely for me. So who does that leave? Lazio, last seasons surprise package will hopefully struggle to match their achievements this season . They put in some absolutely shocking performances in the second half of last season, and became a complete mess in the last few weeks and they only held onto forth due to everyone’s elses mishaps. Reja is eventually gone, with Bosnian coach Vladamir Petkovic coming in with an underwhelming CV. I’m thinking that its back to mid table for Lazio this season. Napoli have lost Lavezzi, who for me was the most important of their three ‘tenors’, but at the time of writing I’m quite impressed that they have held onto to all other key men. Without the distractions of the Champions League and if Mazzarri can get a grip of himself at times then they still look like a good shout for a top 2-4 position in my eyes, and I think they may be worth considering in e/w or top 3 / 4 markets although I haven’t looked at the odds yet. Another team which I’m surprised haven’t been mentioned so far on this thread is Inter. Last season despite the mid season run of wins was a forgettable one but they did show some signs of life against the likes of Udinese and Milan towards the end of the season. The defence is still poor, but what I do like about this Inter team is the movement and creativity in midfield particularly evident since Stramaconi took over. They still have Sneidjer who hopefully will find form again, and with Obi, Guarin, Alverez and players supporting in wide positions it certainly looks a little bit fresher. They should be able to create chances and the line up of Palacio, Milito and Pazzini is arguably as strong as any. I can see Inter scoring plenty this season and I imagine the same might happen with Roma under Zemen. He has an attacking philosophy which should work with the players he has at the club. However whilst it will be very exciting to watch and we all hope Zemen has success I do think its probably too early to be mentioning them as title challengers. The defence is usually exposed in a Zemen team and as we saw last year Roma can almost be as calamitous as their neighbours Lazio when it comes to defending. The signing of Bradley is astute, and whilst he and De Rossi will form a midfield shield it remains to be seen whether this will be enough. As Ultravires says, a decent addition to defence may make them a more interesting betting prospect. However even with the current squad I wouldn’t say a top 4 finish is not out the question, with the same applying to Inter. I also hope that Montella does well at Fiorentina but I don’t think anything above a top 7-8 is likely. I will try and take a look at odds for both the top and bottom of the table nearer the start of the season as more things are available.

[Ireland v Croatia > June 10]

Re: Ireland v Croatia > June 10 This looks to be a very interesting tactical battle. Ireland under Trappatoni, are very conservative, will get players behind the ball and defend in solid lines. He wasn’t too happy with the performance against Hungary and this week he’s kept mentioning the need for one of the strikers to ensure they drop back into midfield when Croatia have the ball. The emphasis is very much on not losing here rather than going for the win. It’s a dangerous plan, it always is whatever the teams are but I do think Ireland have enough about them to make it happen. Whilst Croatia are a relatively attacking unit, with the absence of the hard working Olic and with Krancjar likely to start on the bench, I can’t see too many threats outside of Modric in the starting 11. Srna and Perisic are decent wide men and will get balls into the box but Ireland are well drilled with all of the back 4 possessing good aerial ability to snuff out the threats. With the central areas likely to be well packed I think Modric will also struggle to create chances. Ireland +0.5AH 1.78 at Victor Chandler (2.5 /10 units) :hope

[Spain v Italy > June 10]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Very interesting news coming out of the Italian press this morning, as it looks like Prandelli is going to go with his 3-5-2 formation that has been mooted. To be honest whilst in the long term its probably a good change (if he sticks with it) as the large proportion of Serie A clubs do use a similar formation the idea of suddenly changing our defensive shape against one of the great offensive teams like Spain is more than a little concerning. Its looks likely that De Rossi will be played at CB alongside Chellini and Bonnuci and whilst he played a couple of matches for Roma there this season that was out of desperation rather than any ability he has as a centre back. He did ok in those matches but this is a tougher stage and I fear that he may be found out. However, despite the fact that we do have a number of issues in defence, for me the main issue that the Azzurri have is actually defending from the front and as a team against Spain. You really need to have 10 or all 11 men behind the ball to stop them breaking through, and all need to have a good work rate, some degree of defensive nous and the ablity to make challenges and blocks. Looking at the likely attack and midfield I not sure how many of them with the exception of Maggio, Motta and possibly Marchisio (although he is an attack minded midfielder) are disciplined enough to do this. Certainly losing De Rossi from centre mid weakens us quite a bit. Cassano and Balloteli whilst enthusatstic are not particularly well known for defensive work rate, normally at their club sides they are allowed to prance around upfront without too much responsibility. I can see both of them starting off well but after 30 or so minutes getting bored of defending. Pirlo does sit deeper but he is as we know more useful for his passing than his defensive work. I can see him getting tired quite early in the game having to chase shadows around the pitch. Balzaretti of Palermo is likely to play on the left, who I don’t rate particularly and was part of the 3^rd worst defence in Serie A this season. I think we’ll try as hard as we can but I don’t think that team is good enough to hold Spain at bay for the full 90 minutes. The ref for this one is everyone’s favourite Viktor Kassai, someone who can be extremely card happy so I think it’s worth a look at the card markets. I’ve picked a couple that seem a decent price to me anyway. Spain to win – 1.85 at Bet365 (3.5 / 10 units) Italy over 2.5 team cards – 1.80 at bet365 (2 /10 units) Pirlo to be carded 4.0 at Paddy Power (0.5 / 10 units) Thiago Motta to be carded 4.5 at Paddy Power (0.5 / 10 units) :hope

[French Open 2012]

Re: French Open 2012 Don't knock yourself mate, you've been on a roll this tournament. Would have liked to have a further look at a few of the lesser markets but with the Euro's as well i've struggled to find the time to cover everything. I just want to stick a couple of quid on something to keep things interesting, these finals can go on for bloody ages.

[French Open 2012]

Re: French Open 2012 Yeah well done to those backing Sharapova. Being Italian (well half and only when I feel like it) I just wanted to sit back and watch the final without having to worry about bets as well as Sara herself. As for the final tomorrow, I'm finding it pretty difficult to find a reasonably price bet. :( I know I mentioned earlier about Novaks price and the fact that he might have added motivation because of the history he could make holding all the slams but i'm now not sure how much importance should be placed on that. If this was a goal that he was really focused on achieving then I imagine he would have had that motivation all the way through the tournament as he wouldn't get the chance to do it if he lost in the 4th round. However his performances against Seppi and Tsonga were really poor (lets not forget against Tsonga he was down numerous match points) and when you get a player particularly like Seppi pushing you that hard then its quite clear that he's nowhere near those 2011 levels. That 2011 unbeaten run was the only time that Novak has beaten Rafa on clay, all the other 10 times has seen Rafa come out as victor, predominantly in straight sets so the -2.5 set pick that Czech posted might be worth another look. I do feel the overs and the handicaps particularly on Rafa are just a game or two too high for me. It is the final after all and I cant imagine Djokovic getting bullied of court. In a tight occasion like this he could well take a set. I do however expect Rafa to win. I think in the end I might just follow Fishy in whatever he picks ;)

[Germany v Portugal > June 9]

Re: Germany v Portugal > June 9 Good work again Kavkaz

Germany to win 2.2 at Victor Chandler ( 3.5 / 10 units) :ok Germany over 1.5 goals 2.10 at bet365 ( 2 / 10 units) :\ Germany over 2.5 goals 5.0 at Bet365 (0.5 / 10 units) :\

Well a small +1.7 units profit for the game. I was surprised how defensive Portugal played, when I've seen them or read about the recently they always appeared to be a slighty more offenise unit. Thought the dull days of Carlos Queiroz had gone. -0.15 units for the tournament.