Dylan
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Posts posted by Dylan
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Re: Reading v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 12th January Reading DNB 2.10 at Ladbrokes ( 2 /10 units) I can’t see much value around this weekend but there does seem a little bit on Reading, so I’ll take them with full draw protection. Reading’s home form has not been that bad this season, and they’ve lost just the three times to Arsenal, Man Utd and Spurs, and for the most part they’ve shown enough desire in their home games to trouble teams and pick up points. Indeed confidence should be higher now give that they’ve picked up 4 points in the last two games at the Madjeski and kept clean sheets in both of these as well. Reading will know that these are the types of games that they need to win if they stand any chance of staying up and based on what I’ve seen of them in these last two home fixtures they players are responding to this challenge. West Brom are a solid outfit, but will suffer without Yacob and Mulumbu in that centre mid position. With those two available they could have got a strong grip on this game, but in their absence they do look a little bit lightweight in the middle of the park and Reading now have a good chance to dominate play, get the upper hand and for me are the team that’s going to be threatening much more. :hope
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Re: Norwich City v Newcastle United > Sat 12th January Newcastle +0.5AH 1.78 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) I’m with Jase here in thinking that the price on Newcastle is a little too high. Sure they are in a bit of a bad run, but they’ve had some tough matches and a number of players out, but looking ahead both of these issues are starting to ease. With Collocini back for the time being, and Debuchy coming in at right back, they look quite strong again defensively and as we’ve seen over the last few games they still show a great attacking spirit and always look capable of getting goals whoever the opposition. With Cisse, Guttierez and Cabaye back in the squad this is only going to help matters going forward. Norwich are by no means a terrible team, but they are on a similarly bad run and have looked a bit sloppier defensively in recent matches, the West Ham game being an example of this as they were pretty poor and out the game within the first 25 minutes. Newcastle are strong enough in attack to take advantage of any possible Norwich mishaps and with the quality they have I would expect them get a goal or two and with Grant Holt still a doubt I’m not sure whether the home team have enough to outscore their opponents. :hope
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January I’ve pulled the trigger on the following for this weekends games; Lazio -1AH 2.09 at Bet Victor (6 / 10 units) The more I thought about this one the happier I was with Lazio’s price. They’re having a great run at the moment, unbeaten in 12 games in all comps and for the most part their performances have been consistently strong, which is quite an achievement for Lazio having watched them over the last few seasons. Ok they were quite poor against Cagliari last weekend but redeemed themselves with a comprehensive win mid week.. They are defensively more solid now helped by the return of Radu and whilst Dias is out of this match, Ciani will come in to partner Biava and that’s a duo that have performed well together already this season so Dias’s injury news isn’t a massive concern for me. They’ve always over the last couple of seasons been much better going forward than they have defending and they remain strong in attack, the midifield has a good mix of everything, and in Hernanes and Klose they have two players who can win a match in the blink of an eye. For much of last season and the first half of this season it would have been difficult to back anyone on a handicap against Atalanta because of the defensive set up but as I mentioned previously injuries and transfers out seem to be taking its toll and I’m seeing plenty of gaps at the moment which a confident and dangerous Lazio team have the ability to exploit. Siena +0.25AH 1.98 at Bet365 (3 / 10 units) I’ve slighty reduced the amount I was going to stake on this one because of Calaio’s transfer to Napoli but I still think this match provides Siena with a great opportunity to pick up points. Whilst its right to question where the goal threat is coming from, given the complete overhaul of Torino’s defence for this match I think it’s likely that they will make mistakes and leave spaces and it’s not going to require too much attacking nous to get opportunities and I’m hopeful that even Siena will be able to bumble one in. In regard to Ze Eduardo, he announced in December that he was homesick and wanted to move back to Brazil. There’s definitively a deal in place for him to sign for Vasco de Gama but not sure whether its official yet? Genoa +0.5AH 1.88 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) The price has risen again over the last couple of days and stands out this weekend from a value perspective. Cagliari having a tough time of late, whilst Genoa fortunes seem to be turning. I did consider the draw here but the momentum is all with the away side at the moment and it wouldn’t surprise me if they sneaked the win. Udinese vs Fiorentina Draw 3.30 at Bet Victor (2 / 10 units) Udinese are unsurprisingly draw specialists this season with their hardworking defensive set up being able to shut out a lot of teams, whilst up the other end they are still rather too reliant on one man and despite his quality it’s a lot to ask for him to win matches on his own. I think Udinese will be relatively happy to sit deep and allow Fiorentina to pass the ball in front of them and so this will be a real test for Fiorentina’s creative players as to whether they have the quality to unlock such a set up. I’m not sure that they do just yet and it could be a frustrating afternoon for them. The draw to me seems a lot more likely than the odds are suggesting I’ve just got round to looking at the Milan and Juve games, and would have to agree that it may be worth going against Milan in some way, and for the draw represents the best value so that’s on my shortlist as well now. I will ponder that one over the next day or so. Good luck to everyone having a bet this weekend in Serie A. :hope
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January Well I thought they were quite lucky to not concede against Fiorentina, even from the very first whistle they were under pressure but some poor finishing from the home side plus an inspired performance from Perrin meant they somehow failed to score. Prior to this they had lost 5-1, 4-1 and 4-2 on the road with all of these being under the current manager. They may try and park the bus but defensively they are just not good enough and will be exposed by most teams if they keep trying to do that. I understand your point re Inter but I don’t think they are that bad in front of goal, they do lack some creativity but the strike rate of the front 3 (all of whom may well start this match) isn’t that bad. If nothing else they should be able to bully their way through Pescara and that probably suits the players they have rather than try anything to technical. I would agree on your point re Pescara’s attack though, and it’s a good question to raise about whether they have enough to exploit even this weakened Inter back line.
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Re: Serie A > 12th / 13th January Haven’t looked into either the Juve or Milan game as they were playing tonight, but here are my early thoughts for the rest of this weekend’s matches. - Siena seem a very good price away to Torino, but with prices falling from as high as 3.90’s to 3.50 already I may need to move quickly. Torino are suffering a bit with suspensions for this match, particularly at the back, where defensive midfielder Gazzi and defenders Gilk, Darmien, and Masiello are all suspended and Ogbonna continues to be injured. This all means that we’ll see 4 changes to Torino’s defensive unit, and whilst Siena are not the most offensive of teams they should still be testing the makeshift backline with Calaio back fit and plenty of deliveries into the box for him and Rosina from the two full backs and D’Agostino. I certainly see Siena being able to grab at least one goal and if they can then it’ll be pretty difficult for Torino to outscore them, given their rather limited and one dimensional attack they have. I don’t quite think that Siena’s position and form is as reflective of their ability, they’ve had 5 tough matches on the go against Europe chasing teams and when you look at results against similar strength teams they’ve done ok, picking up a fair few points. The +0.25 at 1.95 is of most interest to me here. - Another away team that I think is offering value as well is Genoa. Over the last few years Genoa have been a tricky team to predict and bet on but I do see a bit of consistency with Del Neri’s team over the last three games where they’ve put in decent performances and picked up 5 points from 9. They’ve had some of their more creative / attacking midfielders missing over the course of these matches, with Jankovic, Jorquera and Bertolacci being unavailable for some if not all and Merkel moving to Udinese, so the lineup has been more defensive and that’s certainly been the key for them in steadying things up. It looks like they are going to with the 4-5-1 again which they did with good affect against Inter in their last away match and this should prove reasonably resilient against a struggling Cagliari team, with no win in 9 matches and lacking a goal threat with just one scored in the last 4 home games. This is probably then going to be a pretty dour and even match but I don’t quite think the odds reflect this so for me there is a fair bit of value on Genoa currently priced at 4.0. The +0.5 would probably interest more than the outright though. I’ll be interested to hear other thoughts on this game. - The draw at 4.0 in the Udinese vs Fiorentina match stands out as well. Udinese are such a tough team to beat at home that there is no way Fiorentina deserve to be favourites, particularly as Udinese started the second half of the season so strongly against Inter last weekend and are boosted by the return on Pinzi. They have however not quite had enough about them to see off teams at the Fruli this season, with 4 draws already compared to just 5 in the whole of last season. I see Fiorentina’s loss to Pescara as a bit of a fluke results and wouldn’t read too much into it, so would expect the away side to carry on playing there neat possession football but I would ask whether they quite good enough yet to break down those teams with the strongest defences of which Udinese certainly are one of these. They did put two past them earlier in the season but that was on the eve of Udine’s big Champions League qualifier against Braga and I remember that Guidolin pretty much sent out his reserves that day. -The price on Lazio seems about right at the moment so I’ll monitor that with the hope that it may rise a little bit. I’ve a few concerns for Atalanta now, their defence which has been key for them over the last 18 months is slowly falling apart, they’ve lost Peluso to Juve and Manfredini to Genoa and have a few injuries in defence at the moment as well. Lazio are in a great run of form and should be confident of taking advantage of Atalanta’s defensive problems. -Their certainly seems to be a shortage of defenders in Serie A for this weekend as Inter are struggling too with suspensions to Juan and Rannochia and Samuel injured. That’s the first choice back three out and will more than likely mean Cambiasso starting in defence again, alongside the returning Chivu and Silvestre. I still think Inter will get the win as they should be too strong physically in other areas of the pitch, but goals look likely at both ends. The over 2.5 isn't a great price, so maybe both to score or the Pescara +0.5 goals may offer better opportunities. As always the thoughts of others would be appreciated. Lets hope this thread is as busy as last weekend.
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Re: Italian Cup > 8th Jan - 16th Jan Small profit tonight :ok Tomorrow’s match is looking like a no bet for me. The Juve manager Conte confirmed in his press conference today that he’ll be rotating his squad for this one to give a few others a chance. It’s highly unlikely that we’ll see Pirlo or Buffon, Cheillini and Marchisio are injured as is Vucinic (who should make the bench), but despite all this Juve have such a great squad that they can bring in some excellent replacements as well as keeping a few core players like Vidal & most of the back 3. It makes them hard to bet against but on the other hand I don’t see their current price of around 1.80 as offering any value given the changes. If it can drift a bit further then maybe I might take a second look. Anything around evens I’ll be happy with. Milan have got numerous injuries, and whilst they have taken a strong squad and may well field the strongest team possible, I just don’t think they are good enough to back even at these high odds. We didn’t get much in terms of team selection from Allegri at his press conference so always a risk that he might rotate as well.
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Re: Italian Cup > 8th Jan - 16th Jan First 11's here; http://www.gazzetta.it/trsport/tempo-reale/tabellino.shtml?match_config=483657.json&comp=259&day= Its a very similar lineup by Lazio to the one that faced Siena in the last round. Hernanes & Lulic are in but most of the other key men, the likes of Klose, Candreva & Ledesma are sat on the bench. Catania have gone pretty strong in midfield and attack but that defence isn't ideal, with Spolli and Alverez both injured and Marchese and Andular on the bench, there is question marks in my mind over that back 5. You can certainly argue for value on Catania but with that defence maybe not as much as I would have liked. I'm now moving towards the goal markets, as with second choice defensive lineups for both teams but some decent attack minded players still on the pitch, goals are pretty likely. Certainly both teams generally see goals in their league matches, Lazio have had 7 from 10 home games go over this season and on the road Catania have seen 6 from 9 games go over. Over 2.5 goals 1.93 at Bet Victor (2 /10 units) Over 3.5 goals 3.25 at Bet365 (1 / 10 unit) :hope
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan
:\ -1 units on this one, its shame that most of Roma's best chances in the second half particularly fell to Bradley. He missed an absolute sitter just before Napoli scored the third and the match pretty much swung on that. Still i'm happy with a positive return over the weekend.This price on the draw is just too tempting to avoid so i'll take; Napoli vs Roma Draw 4.0 at Paddy Power (1 / 10 units) -
Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan
This price on the draw is just too tempting to avoid so i'll take; Napoli vs Roma Draw 4.0 at Paddy Power (1 / 10 units) :hopeAt the San Paulo on Sunday night the 4.0 looks a bit high for the draw, and indeed there is a tiny bit of value on the Roma win too in my opinion. Roma have been looking a lot steadier in recent matches and it’s likely to stay that way for this one with De Rossi & Bradley both again starting in this match. There will always be questions about the Roma defence but with these guys in front of them they offer such a great shield that it’s quite rare now for the Rome defence to get caught in 1 on 1 or 2 on 1 etc positions as there is cover all the time. Insigne is a doubt for this match and with the often frustrating Pandev not quite firing this season there will be more pressure on Cavani to lead the line. Whilst of course he is capable of pieces of magic, I doubt he’ll be able to dominate and exploit the Roma defence as well as he could have earlier in the season, now that Bradley and De Rossi are paired together to help out. Up the other end Napoli haven’t really looked at their best in defence all season with just two clean sheets at home and they’ve often allowed teams back into games when they should have been well clear as we’ve seen against the likes of Torino, Milan and Bologna, all teams that came back into games to pick up points. On paper I would agree that Napoli deserve to be favourites but their tendency to become complacent could create issues again against a hard working Roma team with great spirit. -
Re: Italian Cup > 8th Jan - 16th Jan Its still a couple of days away and as always with cup ties I’d like to wait for more team news, but given the prices it does look like it could be worth going against Lazio here. The price is up to 3.70 on the draw and 5.0 on the away win. I’m not convinced that this competition is Lazio’s priority at the moment, given that after todays results they somehow still find themselves in touch with Juve and sitting comfortably in one of the Champions League places. Remaining in the top three has got to be the main aim now and with the Biancocelesti still in the Europa League as well, I’d be surprised if the manager doesn’t take an opportunity to drop a few for this one. He fielded a weakened team with the exception of Hernanes & Lulic in the last round and there were just able to scrape through with a 90+ minute equaliser before eventually seeing of Siena on penalties. Obviously we have just come out of a winter break so fatigue isn’t going to be that much of an issue but Petkovic may well want to prevent any injuries to key men that could derail what is currently a strong season. Catania have fielded slighty more full strength teams in the previous rounds and its already been indicated that both Lodi (suspended for the next league match) and Gomez will more than likely start this match. Catania are in a comfortable mid table position at the moment, well clear of relegation but also 8 points of Europe so this competition offers them a better opportunity to reach the Europa League in my opinion, a goal the coach has said is worth going for. Lets not forget either than Catania thumped Lazio in the league 4-0 earlier this season, and the gulf between these two even considering Catania's relatively poor away form clearly isn’t as wide as the odds suggest.
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan
Some interesting results today, its a shame that Juve or Fiorentina matches didn't go as expected for some on here but some decent picks on here none the less. Good call by jenspm on the BTS at the San Siro and a brave call by guerzy on Samp paid off. Decent return to action for me as well +3.66 units so far. Still undecided on whether its worth taking anything in the Napoli vs Roma game, the draw is the only thing that is standing out value wise for me.So this is what I’ve gone with so far; Udinese +0.25AH 1.83 at Bet365 (6 / 10 units) :ok Genoa vs Bologna Draw 3.30 at Bet Victor ( 3 / 10 units) :\ Siena +1.25AH 2.12 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) :ok -
Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan So this is what I’ve gone with so far; Udinese +0.25AH 1.83 at Bet365 (6 / 10 units) Genoa vs Bologna Draw 3.30 at Bet Victor ( 3 / 10 units) Siena +1.25AH 2.12 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) I’m still mulling over the Napoli vs Roma game. There were a couple of movers on the market last night, with big rises on Palermo and to a lesser extent Atalanta. Obviously these caught my eye but a further look at team news makes the moves more understandable. Atalanta are without Manfredini as well as Luchinni and the recently sold Peluso, which makes there normally strong defence look decidedly average. Palermo also have changes in the back line which will include a debut for Aronica! Miccoli is injured again and looks unlikely to have anything more than a cameo appearance off the bench. The draw does seem to offer a bit of value in both of these matches but not enough to take given the team news.
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Re: Serie A > 5th Jan - 6th Jan It’s good to see plenty of discussion in this thread for this weekend’s games, and some interesting picks so far. Lazio got a bit lucky tonight, but I hope kulikTS took that punt on the 2-1 scoreline . Good pick on the Catania vs Torino draw as well in the post above. Personally I’m with the guys on here who don’t see much value on either the Fiorentina or Juve game, although both are obviously deserved favourites. There are however a few games that I’ve shortlisted at the moment; Udinese vs Inter – I’m quite the surprised that Inter are such clear favourites for this one against Udinese, a team beaten just once at home in the league this season (and that was against Juve). Whilst there has been much turnover in Guidolin’s squad from last season and doubts remain in my mind about whether he knows his favoured centre mid and attack partnerships they remain a very resolute outfit, still hard to beat with 9 draws already this season. Like many before them this season I think Inter will also find it tough to get a win so for me there is a bit of value on both the Udinese win or the draw (the +0.25 might be the best priced compromise). Inter are still lacking a creative threat, Cassano may be back but this isn’t 100% guaranteed I believe, and beyond him there is very little to get excited about, with other options limited with Coutinho, Alaverz and obviously Sniejder not in the squad. Perriera and Guarin are good runners with the ball but Udinese will snuff out space well and so there won’t be many gaps for them to exploit. Pinzi is suspended and Benatia is at the ACON now but even with these absences the home side still are worth backing. There are also a couple of draws where the price seems a little generous, these being Genoa vs Bologna and the big Sunday night match Napoli vs Roma. Genoa have some of their key creative players out with no Jankovic, Jorquera or Bertolacci making the squad for this match. This has been a problem for Del Neri ever since he took over and as we’ve seen in the games since they’ve struggled to create chances and get wins. In their last two matches before the break against Inter and Torino they had tightened up in defence but were short of ideas up top and even with Rossi coming back into the team at the end of November I don’t think there is enough spark in midfield to really trouble a decent side like Bologna. The away team had a good end to 2012 with 10 points from the last 6 matches and two wins over Napoli in league and cup as well. They’ll want to carry that momentum into the new year and with their away form being so poor for the most part this season I think they’ll be happy to set up for a point here. Diamanti is a big doubt for this one at the time of writing and without him Bologna will also find their attacking threats limited, so this one could be a bit of a midfield battle, and I don’t think either has a particular edge if this occurs. At the San Paulo on Sunday night the 4.0 looks a bit high for the draw, and indeed there is a tiny bit of value on the Roma win too in my opinion. Roma have been looking a lot steadier in recent matches and it’s likely to stay that way for this one with De Rossi & Bradley both again starting in this match. There will always be questions about the Roma defence but with these guys in front of them they offer such a great shield that it’s quite rare now for the Rome defence to get caught in 1 on 1 or 2 on 1 etc positions as there is cover all the time. Insigne is a doubt for this match and with the often frustrating Pandev not quite firing this season there will be more pressure on Cavani to lead the line. Whilst of course he is capable of pieces of magic, I doubt he’ll be able to dominate and exploit the Roma defence as well as he could have earlier in the season, now that Bradley and De Rossi are paired together to help out. Up the other end Napoli haven’t really looked at their best in defence all season with just two clean sheets at home and they’ve often allowed teams back into games when they should have been well clear as we’ve seen against the likes of Torino, Milan and Bologna, all teams that came back into games to pick up points. On paper I would agree that Napoli deserve to be favourites but their tendency to become complacent could create issues again against a hard working Roma team with great spirit. There are a few big prices knocking about as well this weekend, we saw Cagliari at 8’s tonight, as well as Pescara and Samp at 15’s and 19’s. I don’t think any of these team deserve such high odds but the one that stands out the most for me Milan vs Siena with the away side priced at 11.0. Milan are having a few problems this season and they never seem to be abating. For this weekend, they’ve got huge central defensive issues, with Zapata, Mexes, Bonera and Yepes out so we’ll see fifth choice centre back Acerbi come in and partner probably De Sciglio or maybe even Ambrosini neither of whom have any real experience of playing in that position. Constant is still technically filling in at left back as well, and although Allegri obviously likes him there I’m yet to be convinced. De Jong is also out of central midfield and Ambrosini doesn’t have the legs anymore to be dominant as he once could and Milan do look a little light in the middle of the park. Up front the home side have more or less sold both Pato and Robinho and with Boateng said to be considering his future, options are certainly limited and they still look to be over reliant on El Sha. Whilst Siena are no great shakes, Cosmi will have them working hard and playing without fear and as they showed when beating Inter at the San Siro earlier in the season (and away at Parma recently as well) that when they get things right they can frustrate bigger teams. I certainly think it’s worth taking a look at +’ve handicap options on Siena here. I’ll mull these over and post picks later. Good luck to everyone having a bet in Serie A this weekend and happy New Year to you all.
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Re: Serie A > 8th December - 10th December Just to update on team news, Montolivo doesn't make the trip to Turin, so its likely that a Milan midifield without him or Boateng will lack creativity and will find it more difficult to breakdown a stubborn Torino side. Another issue is that Constant is also out and as I mentioned in my earlier, Cerci's powerful runs from the right sided of midfield for Torino are probably there biggest threat. The speculation is that De Sciglio will move over to the left hand side of defence and whilst the lad has played well so far this season, he lacks the physicality of Constant and Cerci may be able to get the better of him over the course of the game. With there being very little movement on Milan odds to reflect this team news can't see any value on them. Indeed the draw or the Torino +'ve handicaps may present a better opportunity here. As for the big game in Rome tonight, Jovetic has made the squad although its unclear whether he'll start, indeed its quite tough at the moment to decipher who is going to be joining Toni as the second striker. Whether thats Jovetic or not its excellent for the Viola to have there key man back even if he plays just part of the match he has the quality to undo this Roma defensive. Das Phantom makes a good point about set pieces too, as Fiorentina are excellent from these. I don't think Roma are terrible at defending them and will have a slighty more confident keeper with Steklenberg back for this match, but they did gift Siena a goal from a corner in the previous game when Neto was allowed to jump between 3 defenders and i'm sure Fiorentina will test them. I'm going to wait to see the team Montella puts out, particularly who he goes for upfront but at the moment the positive handicaps on the Viola do still interest, the +0.5 at 1.90 especially. Not much else catching my eye this weekend.
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Re: Serie A > 8th December - 10th December Torino vs Milan Milan away to Torino does look appealing, but with Milan being without Boateng and possibly the injured Montolivio, it may be worth waiting for a clearer picture on the laters injury as the week goes on. Milan still have their issues, particularly in defence where they are still playing patched up slighty, with Constant at left back and Yepes in at centre back, but Torino are for me not the team to expose these weaknesses. They may play a 4-2-4 formation but it’s got more defensive as the season has gone on and whilst they are solid enough in all areas they are a little too one dimensional in attack to really worry Milan. Goals have generally been quite difficult to come by for Torino, they’ve got a record of 15 in 15 games which seems ok but 8 of these came in 2 games (against Atalanta and Pescara), which distorts the figures. They’ve only really got one plan which is to get Cerci to carry the ball forward and then look to get it into to Bianchi in the box and so I’d fancy Milan to deal with this reasonably well. Yepes & Mexes are certainly better in the air than they are when players are running at and past them and Constant is strong enough to not be out fought by Cerci’s runs. At the other end of the pitch, Milan are getting stronger by the game. They have a lot more confidence and the improvement in Montolivio’s performances have been key. I do think they can cope without Boatang as any of El Sha, Robinho or even Bojan if he came in are happy to drop deeper and carry the ball forward in his absence, but Montolivo would be a bigger miss, as they’ve not really got anyone in reserves that offers much of the same qualities. Torino will however be without the suspended Gilk which breaks up the partnership between the Pole and Ogbonna which has been a positive one and it’ll be interesting to see how they cope. Di Cesare certainly looked a bit rusty against Juve when he had to come on. The – 0.25AH at 1.86 is certainly one to consider. Roma vs Fiorentina This is another one where the away team look a little long but there is again some injury news to consider. It was discussed in last weekend’s thread that Fiorentina were missing a number of key attacking players and the current situation is that Aquilani is fully fit as is Toni but Jovetic is still touch and go. They’ll love to have him back for this game which will be a real test of their Champions League credentials but they are far from desperate and unless there is some drastic improvement with the Serbians injury in the next few days, the best the Viola can hope for is for Jovetic to make the bench. They are weaker without him but are still strong and can still get goals as recent games have shown. There’s been a lot of talk about how Zeman has tweaked his philosophy slighty to a more defensive one after that run of games earlier in the season when they were shipping goals and to extent this is true but they’ve only done this against poorer opposition with limited attacking threat (Torino, Pescara and Siena) and when they’ve already had a lead in games. It’s worked well for them as they’ve picked up 3 wins in a row but we shouldn’t get carried away as the defence for me still has plenty of questions marks hanging over them against the better teams. Even without Jovetic, Fiorentina are still a very clever attacking team, with Aquilani and Valero offering good movement and eye for a pass, support from wide areas and in Toni and El Hamadoui offering a physical threat which should on paper be troubling a lightweight central defence partnership of Castan and the young Brazilian Marquinhos. Mati-Goal Fernandez could also come in as a more like for like replacement for Jovetic. Pizzaro sadly misses this game, having returned home to Chile, but this may actually give Montella an excuse to bring in a more defensive minded midfielder (Miglicalio or Romulo) who will provide a better physical presence against the hard working Roma team, whilst allowing Valero and Aquilani to concentrate more on going forward . Roma will of course still offer a tough test and their high pressure game will mean they get chances and force mistakes but without Lamela and with a midfield that looks strong but with without much spark (Bradley, De Rossi, and that Greek guy is what Gazzetta suggest) they may rely heavily on Totti to create and with this quality of opposition it’s going to be tough for him and Roma to get their opponents on the back foot. Roncaglia will be back in defence for Fiorentina as well in this match. Both the +0.5 or 0.75AH on Fiorentina are worth a look in my opinion. Elsewhere, Napoli do look a tad long against Inter but with both teams in Europa League action tonight I’m yet to give that one much though. Chievo also seem worth a look but it’s perhaps worth waiting a couple of games to get a better feel on how Cheivo are playing. The 4 goal performance against Genoa was in complete contrast to the toothless performances of previous weeks.
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Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec
Well Samp save the day a little, so just -2.72 for the day. Good work Das Phantom def need to be a bit more selective with my picks like you appear to be. I'll still post thoughts / team news etc in the next few weeks but might not make any bets public. Didn't see any of the Genoa game so will have to watch highlights / read the match reports to see if Chievo have had a massive tactical change or whether Genoa just messed things up agai . I know having checked the stats at half time that Cheivo had three shots and scored three goals. Clinical.I'm also going to get on this early, as I can't see these excellent price hanging around for much longer once Fiorentina's striker problems get more widely known. I'm also taking a small punt on the DNB simply as the prices are so tasty. Sampdoria +1.25 1.82 at BetVictor (4 / 10 units) Sampdoria DNB 6.0 at Bet365 (1 / 10 units) -
Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec Yep. Awful day so far for me, apologies to anyone who followed or were influenced by my completly wide of the mark write ups. Will refrain from posting picks for Serie A until after the xmas break I think. It is possible to make money on Serie A but I think i'll need to revisit my strategies again, i've gone right of the boil after a decent start to the season. Well done any winners today and lets hope Samp come through with the goods tonight, to stop this day getting any worse. :puke
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Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec :zzz Just to confirm what I’ve taken for today on top of Samp; Inter vs Palermo Both teams to score – 1.83 at BetVictor (3 / 10 units) Palermo over 1.5 team goals – 4.50 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) The more I think about this one the more I feel this game has got goals written all over it. Both sides are defensively poor, and both in need of wins, with Inter playing catch up for the CL spots and Palermo eager to pull away from relegation zone. Perhaps under normal circumstances we could have expected Palermo to go quite defensive minded for this one, but such a mentality is made difficult given the absence of Donati from defence and the fact that Palermo’s next 5/6 fixtures are incredibly difficult and they are going to need to be brave and try and pick up points from somewhere. This match against an out of form Inter may just be there best opportunity for a win until the end of January! Whilst Donati has only this season made the move into defence he has become a useful part of the Palermo back line and whilst they are still pretty average with him there it will be a lot tougher without him as the 4-1 defeat away at Roma a few weeks ago proved. He offers good leadership and organisation in their as well as being much better on the ball than most defenders are. The likely back three Munoz, Von Bergen and Garcia would be a cause for concern, and if Nagatomo and Zannetti can exploit the wide areas and get balls into the box then Milito and Palacio will give these three the run around all day. They won’t enjoy Coutinho running at them either. For me there is no point in Palermo being defensive as it simply doesn’t suit the players they have, and if they try to do this then Inter will have no problems scoring against them. The best thing for Palermo to do then is try to attack Inter, a team that hasn’t kept a clean sheet for 8 games now (6 of these in the league) something which is leading to plenty of questions about the defensive set up, and whether in the long term a back three is right for Inter. I’m certainly surprised that Nagatomo still appears to be the first choice as left full back, as whilst he’s a nippy player he gets out of position pretty often something which Morganella especially could exploit to find himself space down the right. Rannochia remains a liability in a back three and to be honest neither Samuel or Juan Jesus have really excelled themselves in recent weeks. Palermo’s front three of Dybala, Illicic and Brienza will all offer good movement and inter changing of positions and I’m not convinced that the Inter defence will be able to cope with particularly well with this movement. We’ve seen in recent weeks Cagliari and Atalanta exploit Inters defensive weaknesses and if they play at the top of their game then Palermo are much stronger going forward than either of those two teams. Genoa vs Cheivo Genoa -0.25 2.0 at Bet365 ( 2 /10 units) Not much more to add to my previous post as well as what Das Phantom has already commented on. Cheivo offer little attacking threat and so Genoa at home, buoyed by the win last week should be looking to get the upper hand. Cheivo wont buckle easily but the home side have a little bit of quality in Immobile and Jankovic and should be able to nick a goal. The price rise over night has made this an even more enticing prospect as has the news that both Sardo and Cesar have injury doubts and it would appear unlikely that both will make the team meaning more defensive changes for Cheivo. I did briefly flirt with backing Roma as well but having read Azzurini's excellent preview I've decided against. I don't particularly rate this Siena team at all but have to give them credit for recent home performances. Good luck to everyone having a punt on todays matches. :hope
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Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec
I'm also going to get on this early, as I can't see these excellent price hanging around for much longer once Fiorentina's striker problems get more widely known. I'm also taking a small punt on the DNB simply as the prices are so tasty. Sampdoria +1.25 1.82 at BetVictor (4 / 10 units) Sampdoria DNB 6.0 at Bet365 (1 / 10 units) Regarding Lazio I wouldn't necessary say that they are a team that prospers against back 3's and whilst the attacking performance against Udinese was the best i've seen Lazio play in a long time, I wouldn't be expecting them to suddenly play like this every match. Having a quick look through the fixtures they've failed to score against all of Juve, Napoli and Fiorentina who have 3 man defences and won by just the one goal against a poor Siena side too. Despite away results this year, Parma should be tough to beat on the road. I recall that Donadoni only lost twice in his 11 away games after he took over last season and whilst performances haven't been as solid so far this season (loosing to Pescara was a big surprise for me) they have got a bit of momentum with just one defeat in 7 which has carried them to a deserved 7th place in the league. Now that both are fit again Biabiany and Amauri have continued developing their good relationship, and the defence and mid are solid and organised enough to make life difficult for Lazio. Udinese were all over the place on Tuesday night and it's unlikey we'll see Parma offering as much space to Lazio's attackers. The price is just a little short for me to consider backing Lazio as this wont be easy for them.Samp away at Fiorentina. Like Das Phantom has mentioned Samp have started to turn things around recently results wise something which has coincided with the return of key men in defence and midfield and they should with the exception of the suspended Costa be strong and compact again for this trip to Florence. They would been a tough team to break down for a full strength Fiorentina outfit but given the absences they have up front with Jovetic, Llajic, Luca Toni and Aquilani all out its going to be even harder for the Viola to find a way past Samp here. With Obiang, Maresca and Munari the away side also have some excellent combative midfielders and its going to be difficult for Fiorentina’s midfield to control possession as much as they usually would. All in all a tough night for Fiorentina can be expected so any plus handicap on Samp is well worth a look. The +1.25 at 1.82 offers a decent price and mimimal risk. -
Re: Serie A > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec
Ha! Well after a couple of weeks of wild orgies I'm back with a few tips that may or may not have been provided by a stripper going by the name of Ruby the Heart Stealer. Completely agree with Genoa and for me the -0.25 at 1.93 is currently the only bet that’s made it from my long list onto my shortlist so far. Chievo are just so poor right now. They’ve based their game over the past couple of seasons on defence and last season they had an excellent record conceding just 45 goals which I recall put them as the 7th best defence in the league, stronger than the likes of Napoli and Lazio. For a team that is pretty weak offensively that defence was crucial to them but unfortunately this season they lost a few key players from prior seasons (Bradley & Acerbi), whilst chopping and changing those who are left which has meant that the likes Cesar, Jokic and Sardo have rarely been on the field together and other than Danielli those been very little consistency to the back line. It’s likely that this may be the first game for some time that the back four is the same as in the previous league match which may help a little but with Jokic and Cesar still excluded from the line up, the Cheivo defence is still in my opinion in need of some improvement. All this isn’t helped by the fact that they are still toothless up front. Genoa have had a slow start under life with Del Neri but the win over Atalanta last weekend should give the players a bit more confidence going into to this tie. It always amazes me how Genoa do so poorly with the players they’ve got as they have a number of real quality and skill but too often they have lacked back bone and willingness to fight for the cause, an issue that certainly came to the fore last season and up until last weekend wasn’t particularly evident this season either. However that match against Atalanta has changed my perception of them a little bit, and of course they’ve been helped by Del Neri opting to go a little bit more defensive with his tactics, playing just the one striker these days. Honestly with this set up and with how poor Chievo are certainly in attack I just can’t see how even Genoa can contrive to lose this match (all though Vargas at left back might be fun to watch), they should have plenty of the ball with limited pressure on their defence and this should enable the likes of Jankovic, Bertolacci and Immobile to make use of that quality that they do have in attacking areas. Cheivo will try to contain but not convinced the defence is strong enough to hold out I’ve not had much time to look that deeply at this set of fixtures but I’m considering; - Samp away at Fiorentina. Like Das Phantom has mentioned Samp have started to turn things around recently results wise something which has coincided with the return of key men in defence and midfield and they should with the exception of the suspended Costa be strong and compact again for this trip to Florence. They would been a tough team to break down for a full strength Fiorentina outfit but given the absences they have up front with Jovetic, Llajic, Luca Toni and Aquilani all out its going to be even harder for the Viola to find a way past Samp here. With Obiang, Maresca and Munari the away side also have some excellent combative midfielders and its going to be difficult for Fiorentina’s midfield to control possession as much as they usually would. All in all a tough night for Fiorentina can be expected so any plus handicap on Samp is well worth a look. The +1.25 at 1.82 offers a decent price and mimimal risk. - I also feel Palermo like Samp are a bit long away to Inter. Inter are going through a tough spell at the moment, the first really slip up of Stramacionni’s reign and it be interesting to see what he tries to do to turn things around. At the moment I feel that they are becoming a little bit too predictable and lack any real dynamism which has given recent opposition much more confidence to attack them and take a few more risks. Palermo should be full of confidence going into this one then, fresh from that impressive derby performance against Catania last weekend and Gasperini I’m sure will be eager to prove a point to his past employers. It’s a shame that both Donati and Miccoli are suspended for this one, and certainly without the former in defence, Palermo do look a little weak defensively. I would however fancy them to have the edge in midfield certainly when it comes to keeping hold on to the ball and Dybala will be looking to feed off this. The jury is still out on the youngster but he was incredible against Sampdoria when I last saw him and this is a great opportunity for add to the hype. For me Palermo certainly have enough to trouble Inter and they may well be able to sneak something so again any + handicaps could be worth a look, with prices similar to those for Samp. I also like the look of goals, and whilst the over 2.5 is priced accordingly, the BTS at 1.83 or even total Palermo goals (over 0.5 at 1.67 or over 1.5 at 4.33) might be worth a look. The BTS is probably my most likely punt here. I’ll hopefully spot one or two other possibilities once I have a better look at the odds and team news. Thoughts are as always appreciated.If Dylan and Ultravires can tear themselves away from Berlusconi’s Bunga Bunga parties for 5 minutes and get back to some solid graft that would be great. -
Re: Group F > 8 November (AIK Solna, Dnipro, Napoli, PSV) Dnipro do stand out here. Napoli really don’t care about this competition, we’ve seen that from the teams they put out in previous rounds and all reports at the moment seem to be suggesting that Mazzari will be utilising the squad again for this one, with the likes of Insigne, Donadel, Britos, Aronica, Fernadez and Mesto all getting a game. On paper it doesn’t look a bad team but it hasn’t really worked from them in the Europa League this season and there were no real signs of improvement in the 3-1 defeat against Dnipro last time out. There is talk that Cavani may start, which would improve matters going forward but given the defensive messes they got themselves into against Dnipro in that previous match they will still be very leaky at the back, particularly on long balls and set plays and I’m sure as the away team Dnipro will be looking to make the most of these situations again. I’m not sure what the team news is for the Ukranian side but if its pretty positive then I may well look to take the away team on the + handicaps. Cards could be another options as the early match had one or two tense moments and 5 cards overall.
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Re: Group J > 8 November (Lazio, NK Maribor, Panathinaikos, Tottenham) Can’t help but think that Panathanikos might be a little long here against Lazio, but would like to get the views of anyone who watches the Greek leagues more than I do. With the Rome derby at the weekend and with a couple of injuries the Lazio manager Petkovic is likely to rotate quite heavily for this one. Hernanes is definitely out injured and of the usual first 11 it’s been suggested in the Italian press that only Marchetti, Ledesma, Gonzalez and Mauri will start. Whether it turns out to be that drastic who knows but potentially they could be playing with a completely different back 4, and attack line-up. It’s only the midfield that will stay relatively consistent but even then without Hernanes and Candreva they will miss the two main goal threats from this area. Lazio haven’t really set the competition alight just yet, but three mediocre performances have still given them a good footing in the group and more or less whatever happens on Thursday they will still be in a top 2 qualifying position at the end of the evening. I think they’ll be very happy with that and with the focus being 100% on the derby at the weekend they won’t be that concerned if they didn’t pick up maximum points in this match. Panathanikos drew with Lazio at home just a couple of weeks ago in what was judging by the reports a pretty even game, against a Lazio team that’s likely to be stronger than the one we see on Thursday. That result followed a draw against Spurs and looking at these results and the squad they have to do appear to be a decent and well organised team that will frustrate opponents and I would suggest they could do just that to Lazio. With odds of 1.83 on the +1.25 that has to be on my shortlist.
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Re: Group C > Nov 6 (Malaga, AC Milan, Anderlecht, Zenit SP) Unlike Mustafa i'm not convinced with Milan just yet and to me the price on Malaga seems a little high so it could be worth looking for opportunities on the handicaps / double chance markets. Despite Milans big win on the weekend, there are still a lot of concerns for me about them defensively and if Malaga can match the quality of performance from the earlier match in this one then they will no doubt be able to trouble Milan. Milan will be fine in matches such as this weekend where the opposition sit back and so have no pressure on the defence but in any game this season where a team has tried to attack they will struggle and always look ropey. The Palermo match in midweek was the most recent example of that , where they went down 2-0 and couldn’t cope with the movement of 33 year old Franco Brienza. Isco, Joaquin, Iturra and Saviola will all produce good movement and are very good in possession and these are the kind of things Milan have trouble dealing with. The likes of Bonera, Yepes and Mexes in central defence are nowhere near as good when opponents keep the ball on the ground than when it’s in the air. Abate is still defensively weak and will leave huge amounts of space in behind him, as does Antonini on the other flank. In fact he’s been out the last couple of games and we’ve seen Constant playing out of position on the left to cover. He’s more defensively minded but has looked sluggish and not overly comfortable in this role. With a four pronged attack that Allegri now employs it does leave the central midfield position pretty light as well. Montolivo can hold his position but is no great tackler, so it often leaves just the one man (either De Jong or Ambrosini) protecting defence. Given how Malaga play and the amount of players in midfield who are happy to join in with forward moves they could be out numbered in midfield and out thought in defence. Malaga were pretty impressive in the previous tie, better in possession than Milan and missed a number of chances to improve on their lead. There away results are pretty good this season with just one defeat in 5, and that was courtesy of a 90th min own goal away against Athletico Madrid.
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Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4
:( Oh dear. A couple of bad calls today, leaves me at -4.6 units for the weekend. Thats two consecutive losses for me now in the last two rounds. Think I might have to keep a watching brief for the next set of fixtures. Congrats to any other winners today. A good call by JR23 on the Fiorentina handicap.Milan -0.75AH 1.60 at Betvictor (4 / 10 units) Napoli -0.75 AH 1.81 at Bet Victor (5 / 10 units) Genoa +0.25AH 2.08 at Bet Victor (2 / 10 units)
Reading v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 12th January
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Reading v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 12th January
Fair play to Reading, they never gave up and the Baggies crumbled towards the end. +2.2 units