Jump to content

Dylan

New Members
  • Posts

    569
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Dylan

  1. Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Hi all I used to enjoy following and having a little flutter on the tennis but lost a bit of interest in the middle of last season due to time constraints and admittedly a bit of a hit and miss run. However I decided to try and get back into it this season and see no better place to start than this great grand slam. Having not followed the sport much since the middle of last year I do feel i'm a little out of touch so will take it easy for the first few rounds and see what happens. I usually stick to the WTA as thats where i've had the more successes in the past. My first picks of the slam are below, maybe not the most exciting selections but want to see if I can build a bit of profit early on. Stephanie Foretz Gacon vs Elena Baltacha – Baltacha to win 1.50 at Coral (2 units) Not the most exciting of odds or picks but have to fancy the Brit to come thorough this tie. Having followed Baltacha’s career it’s likely that she may not make it easy for herself, but she has developed a lot more consistency and mental strength in the last year. She has a decent record here as well having progressed to round 2 in all the last 3 years. The same can’t be said for her opponent. Casey Dellacqua vs Bojana Jovanovski – Jovanovski to win 1.50 at Coral (2 Units) Think this one has already been mentioned at least once in this thread, but Jovanovksi should have too much strength for Dellacqua in this one. Certainly if the H2H are anything to go by this should be the case with the Serb winning them both with considerable ease. Did think the handicap was an option but Jovanovski has had a so-so start to the season and may take a bit of time to warm up here. I remember last season she came into this slam having reached the semi’s in Sydney. Polona Hercog vs Julia Georges – First Set Total Games = over 9.5 1.91 at bet365 (1 unit) Every single one of the sets that these two have played against each other (5 in total) have gone over this games line and I see no reason why the first set here couldn’t either. Although Hercog had a decent year in 2011 I still think Georges is ultimately the better player, but she has been suffering from a sickness bug in recent weeks and has only been able to train in the last few days. Hercog and her trainers will no doubt be encouraging her to test Georges in the opening stages of this match to see how well she has recovered. Irena Pavlovic vs Marina Erakovic – over 20.5 games 1.92 at Bwin (1 unit) Despite the difference in rankings I fancy a tight and perhaps long match between these two. The H2H reads 1-1, and although Erakovic won the only game between these two on these same hard courts in the Aussie Open qualifiers last year that was a three setter with 32 games. There is no doubt that Erakovic is ultimately the better player but she has had a difficult first couple of games of the season and hasn’t got any momentum going yet. The same can’t be said for Pavlovic who has performed admirably through qualifying beating two higher ranked opponents, and getting an easy ride in the final round as her opponent picked up an injury. I feel there is chance that Pavlovic could take a set or atleast keep Erakovic on her toes for most the match. :hope Also i'll use my unit values as a gage of confidence but its unlikely that 1 unit here will be the same value as my 1 unit in my football bets, a tleast not until I feel my way back in. Good luck to everyone else getting involved. Some of the write ups so far in this thread have been excellent and very informative. :clap

  2. Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

    Roma - over 1.5 team goals 2.63 at Stan James (1.5 units) VOID Lazio vs Atalanta – over 2.5 goals 2.2 at Stan James (1.5 units) :\ Fiorentina vs Lecce – Lecce over 0.5 goals 1.91 at Coral (1.5 units) :ok Cesena vs Novara – Cesena to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (1.5 units) :ok
    Not bad, 2 winners, 1 loss and a void. Shame the conditions got the better of the pitch at Catania, as from what I've read Roma were the better side in the first half and may have been able to go on and get more goals. +1.44 units
  3. Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Swansea vs Arsenal – Swansea over 1.5 goals 3.75 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) Maybe a bit of a speculative one, but I do think that this Swansea team has the tools to discomfort this makeshift Arsenal defence today. Swansea are very controlled in possession playing it around well in defence and midfield, and with the exception of Song and maybe Ramsey in that Arsenal midfield I can’t see anyone else working that hard or having the defensive ability to break up Swansea’s play. If Swansea can keep the ball then they will be looking to get it wide to Dyer and Sinclair two very pacy wingers. With Djourou still playing as a makeshift right back and the inexperienced youngster Miquel at left back, I think the wingers can upset these two and if they can break past those two then Mertesacker particularly looks vulnerable to pace. Looking at the stats Swansea have scored twice or more at home in four games this season, and have scored in all 3 last home games. Arsenal do concede a few on the road, and have only kept 2 clean sheets on the road, and have conceded twice or more in 5 away games including their most recent one against Fulham. :hope

  4. Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Cesena vs Novara – Cesena to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (1.5 units) Going to have to write this one up quickly, but in general I think that Cesena are the better team and recent result don’t offer a true reflection of how they have been performing recently, and against a weaker team like Novara I think things should even themselves out. Since the win against Palermo, they have face Inter and were unfortunate to lose by one set piece goal having match them for most of the game. Against Atalanta they took the lead, and against Udinese last weekend they were really impressive before the sending off of Lauro, scoring once and creating a few other great opportunities against what is generally a fantastic Udinese defence. Cesena now have a very set and solid formation, the defence is very good aerially and the midfield will battle and they have a little bit of creativity and drive and they are always willing to take long range shots which has paid off for them a few times this season. Mutu is still a decent player and will give poorer teams like Novara the run around and Eder should be getting some more confidence back having scored his first goal for the club vs Udinese after his big money move. What I’ve seen of Novara this season, particularly on the road has been poor, which is why they have picked up only 2 points away all season, with another 6 losses. :hope

  5. Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Fiorentina vs Lecce – Lecce over 0.5 goals 1.91 at Coral (1.5 units) Given that Lecce have scored one or more against Parma, Napoli, Lazio and Inter in recent weeks I don’t think its too unrealistic to expect Lecce to score again here. Under Cosmi, they do play nice attacking football and have some pretty decent players going forward in Cuadrado, Muriel and the experienced Di Michele. Due to defensive injuries Leece will also be forced to go 3 at the back, and putting another body in midfield which again makes them look slightly more attacking. In the two matches following the winter break Fiorentina have been experimenting with a back 5 (3 CB’s & 2 wing backs). It didn’t look too bad against Novara but they are a poor attacking side and in midweek against Roma the back line was exposed a bit more. There were a number of mistakes by younger players in that match, but as two of these Nastasic and Salifu are both starting this match, there is potential for mistakes to creep in again. Nastasic particularly struggled against Borini’s directness and running in the Roma game and these are qualities that both Muriel and Cuadrado offer for Lecce and so I feel the young Serb is in for another difficult match, especially the left wing back is Vargas and I’m not convinced how much he’ll be tracking back to help. With Mesbah out for Lecce, you would certainly imagine most of their attacks will come down that right hand side and this could prove fruitful :hope

  6. Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Seeing as Lazio are quite a positive attacking team and Atalanta are strong on the counter attack I see this game as being a real end to end one and expect a few goals. It’s hard to predict a winner as these are two very evenly matched teams, but as they are at home and have in Hernanes & Klose probably the best two forward players on the pitch I’m sure you could make a strong argument for Lazio snatching this one, and so for me personally I wouldn’t fancy backing Atalanta on the +0.5 / DNB etc. So I will go for goals and take; Lazio vs Atalanta – over 2.5 goals 2.2 at Stan James (1.5 units) As I say Lazio play decent attacking football and a front three of Hernanes, Klose and Rocchi will always cause problems both from open play and set pieces. The biggest problems for Lazio are in defence. For this match their defensive options do admittedly look stronger with Dias and Marchetti both back to full fitness, however due to injuries Reja has had to constantly swap his back 4 around recently and this has meant that they have struggled to build relationships in defence and also really prevents getting any consistency going. The defensive line up that Gazetta seem to be predicting of Marchetti, Zauri, Dias, Biava and Radu would have 3 changes from the last league game in Siena and 4 from the midweek cup tie, and should be cause for some concern. I would be surprised if he Biava does play though because he was terrible against Siena. Atalanta certainly have the players who could exploit any weakness in the Lazio backline with the in form Denis, Moralez or Marilungo in just behind Denis and Schelleto on the wing. As a rule Atalanta are generally quite a positive team and love a quick counter attack. This is a style that doesn’t change when playing away from home. The fact that 7 from 8 away games for Atalanta this season have gone over the 2.5 goals demonstrates this and make these odds look quite nice I feel. :hope I may be back with more picks for tomorrow, still going through team news etc. I did fancy the same bet as Ultravires in backing Udinese on the DNB, but the latest news is that Domizzi is also out for Udinese having picked up an injury. Both defences now look spectacularly average and I worry that Udinese’s could be just a likely to make mistake as Genoa’s. Normally in this situation I would consider goals but as Palacio / Gilardino is a new partnership and Udinese are too relient on one man I probably steer clear from of this match.

  7. Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January West Brom have managed to get a number of their players back fit so I dont fancy backing Norwich too much here, however I will have a small bet on; Norwich - over 1.5 team goals 3.1 at Sporting Bet (1 unit) Despite getting a number of key midfielders back fit for this one, West Brom still have issues in defence meaning that both Jara and Dawson are forced to start. Neither of these have played much football this season, and with the other two defenders being Shorey and McCauley, the back 4 for West Brom looks extremly unconvincing. Norwich play good quick attacking football and that should trouble this defence. They have scored in all but one of their away games this season, and have registered on the scoresheet twice against Wolves, Villa, Bolton and QPR, all of whom you would class as similar quality to West Brom. :hope

  8. Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

    West Bromwich-Norwich AH+0' date=5 2 @1,85 4/10 188bet WBA bad at home, just 2-2-6 and 7:12 goals at home. WBA will miss defender Reid (1 goal), midfielder Gera and captain Brunt (1 goal). Furthermore defenders McAuley (1 goal) and Olsson (1 goal), winger Thomas (1 goal), midfielders Scharner (2 goals) and Morrison (2 goals) and striker Long (5 goals) are all doubts. Although I expect 2-3 players being available. Norwich will get back keeper Ruddy after he missed last week's Cup match because of the birth of his daugher. Defender de Laet (1 goals) and Ward and striker Vaughan will miss with injuries. Ward and Vaughan are long-term absentees. Those players scored 14 out of 19 goals so far. Norwich is able to take something. They concede in almost every match therefore I expect a 1-1 or 1-2. GL
    I'll wait for the starting lineups as its unclear which of West Broms doubtful players will have the best chance to make it, but the +0.5 on Norwich is currently the only thing interesting me for today's games. I think all six doubts are important players for West Brom and would be sorely missed if unavailable, and with Reid and Brunt also out, all these losses could be a bit too much for Albion to cope with.
  9. Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January I do fancy Roma to win today, and the odds on that are decent enough but I will try my luck with this instead. Roma - over 1.5 team goals 2.63 at Stan James (1.5 units) I really can’t see this Catania team threating Roma too much here and so this should allow Roma to get their passing and possession (70% possession against both Cheivo and Bologna recently!) game going and with a few defensive issues that Catania have I don’t think the away side should have too many problems breaking through. Catania’s defence (and indeed the team as a whole) has shown signs that they are struggling in recent performances. The last match before the break saw them concede 3 first half goals to Parma, and they lost 2-0 in Bologna last weekend, offering very little and allowing Bologna to score twice even without their best creative threat Ramirez. On top of this regular left back Marchese is suspended for this match having picked up a few too many yellow cards. Part of Catania’s problem in putting together any consistency this season is Montella’s constant swapping between playing a back 4 or a back 5. I suspect that he would have gone for a back 5 in this match to counteract the runners that Roma get from midfield and full back, but with Marchese out and Capuano also injured, the options in defence are limited and that is likely to force Montella’s hand into going with four in defence which I don’t feel will be ideal for Catania in this match. As for Roma, they have been getting some good results and good performances recently , with four wins on the bounce if you include the impressive mid week win vs Fiorentina. It feels a long time since their early season struggles which saw player bust ups and Enrique allegedly under a lot of pressure. They are now creating a lot of chances and being much more clinical in front of goal. With Totti, Lamela, Bojan and now Borini all fit and with goals to their names this season, I’ll be confident of Roma scoring with whichever three the manager goes for in attack. They have scored 2 or more in all of their last 4 games, and even when things were tough early in the season they were still getting goals. Enrique isn’t really the type of manager to sit back on leads either so not too worried about Roma parking the bus if they do take the lead. The Roma win / handicap win were both considered here, but Catania do offer some attacking threat. If they have 4 not 5 at the back, this should see an extra striker deployed in a 4-3-3 which is obviously quite attacking and they could get some joy against this Roma defence which is the most suspect area of the team still. :hope

  10. Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January I would agree with you Ultravires that goals are likely in the Lecce game, you would always have to expect them when Lecce play at the moment. You can also get Lecce over 0.5 goals for the same price which is also very much worth a look I feel. Lecce have scored in all five last away games and look even more of an attacking threat under Cosmi. Whilst Lecce have a pretty awful defence as it is, with a few defenders out as well (Oddo & Mesbah are both out I think), I do worry about Fiorentina's goal scoring ability with Jovetic and Ljalic upfront as neither are out and out strikers. Other bets i'm considering at the moment are; - backing Roma in some way. They have been quietly improving with a very good run of results recently and look too strong for this Catania team. - Overs in the Lazio vs Atalanta game. - Udinese to win or maybe DNB. Genoa have a few injury problems in defence which makes backing Udinese an interesting prospect. - Siena +0.5. Parma look awful at the moment, very disjointed and there is talk they may switch up the tactics, which could have an either positive or negative effect. Siena have no such issues with a solid and set first 11, and should be in buoyont mood after that win vs Lazio. - Cesena to win. Think that Cesena have more quality in their squad than this Novara team and over the course of the season stand a better chance at avoiding relegation that Novara do, and so there is a good chance this will manifest itself in this match. Will ponder these for the next couple of days, whilst awaiting more up to date squad selections and team news .

  11. Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 10-12 January Cesena have named quite a weak squad for this one, so for me anything other than a Napoli win is highly unlikely. Odds not overly exciting on the home win , so will take a chance on a handicap. Napoli vs Cesena - Napoli -1 1.91 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units) The Napoli team is; Rosati, Colombo, Aronica, Britos, Cannavaro, Fernandez, Fideleff, Grava, Donadel, Dossena, Dzemaili, Inler, Maggio, Zuniga, Cavani, Chavez, Hamsik, Pandev, Vargas. The main players left out are the GK De Sanctis, Campagnaro, Gargano and Lavezzi who presumably is still injured. However they should still be fielding a strong starting 11, especially in midfield and attack with all the main men with the exception of Gargano called up. I don’t have the same confidence in defence but Cesena are pretty impotent upfront anyway and both Mutu and Eder haven’t even travelled to Napoli. That Cesena team in full is; Calderoni; Ravaglia. Lauro; Rossi; Vesi; Benalouane; L. Arrigoni; Popescu. Candreva; Colucci; Parolo; Cica; T. Arrigoni Rennella; Ghezzal; Martinez; Lolli; Bogdani. On first glance it looks like they are missing Antoniolli (first choice GK), Rodriguez, Commotto and Von Bergen (all first choice defenders), Cecerrelli and Guana in midfield (again 2 of usual first 11) and Mutu and Eder from attack. With so many first choice players out you can see that they have prioritised avoiding relegation way above any kind of cup run. Whatever defence they pick (Lauro + 3 others) has the potential to be a mess especially against a strong Napoli attack, whilst Cesena themselves will struggle for creativity upfront without Mutu. The midfield might be ok as Candreva, Colucci and Parolo are all solid pro’s, but they may only help Cesena to keep the scoreline down rather than anything else. However I don’t expect them to prevent Napoli getting at least 2 or maybe 3 here. Would have liked to wait for starting lineups but won't be around tomorrow evening to take anything at the last minute so will have to take now and hope for the best. :hope

  12. Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 10-12 January Team news for tonight; ROMA: Stekelenburg, Cicinho, Henze, Kjaer, Taddei, Gago, Viviani, Greco, Totti, Lamela, Bojan. A disp. Curci, Juan, Jose Angel, Perrotta, Pjanic, Caprari, Borini. All. Luis Enrique FIORENTINA: Neto, Camporese, Natali, Nastasic, Cassani, Montolivo, Salifu, Behrami, Pasqual, Ljajic, Jovetic. A disp. Pazzagli, Gamberini, De Silvestri,Munari, Vargas Cerci. All. Rossi Did think that Fiorentina odds were nice but can't back them with that team. Roma have put out a very strong one whilst Fiorentina have rested a few and gone with the likes of Salifu, Camparese and Nastatic. Also not sure where goals are going to come from for Fiorentina so don't want to back the overs either. Lljaic and Jovetic both like to play quite from deep, and with Roma's high line and Viviani likely to stay defensive as well, things could be quite tight from Fiorentina's front two and they should be well shackled. They could do with someone with a bit of pace to exploit the space behind Roma's defence but they don't really have many options to do this. Good luck to those betting on this game.

  13. Re: England > Midweek > Carling Cup > 10-11 January City vs Liverpool – City -0.5 AH 2.14 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units) To be honest these odds are just too nice on City to not have a little punt on them. I know a lot has been said about City missing Toure and Silva in the middle of the park for this game but I really can’t see a midfield consisting of Henderson, Spearing and an out of from Downing being able to take advantage of that. Savic at the back doesn’t overly worry me either.He’s a great prospect for City and has already this season been used a number of times so is not an unknown to his team mates and shouldn't find integrating into the team too difficult. With Liverpool playing only the one out and out striker in Carrol, City’s two centre backs should be able to cope I feel. Going forward City will miss Toure and Silva no doubt, but they still have so much quality its crazy, and I can see no reason why they can’t get a goal with Aguero, Ballotelli and co on the pitch. Thanks for the team news Kiddo :hope

  14. Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 10-12 January Well despite the players out, I do feel that Udinese still have the advantage in terms of player quality and of course they are the home team and have a great record at the Stadio Friuli this season. Most of the players likely to start would have appeared in the Europa League this season so wont be completely out of touch and will understand the style that Guidolin asks of them, although it is worth noting that the Europa League results were hit and miss. Anyway I don't think odds are big enough to take Udinese on the outright, especially as it only covers 90 mins and it wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this will go to extra time. In terms of importance of this competition, Guidolin has hardly been convincing in his desire to win, using terms such as 'we will try" and "we will do are best" rather than we "want" to win, and i'm sure that the league title / CL qualification remain by far the biggest aim this season. So it doesn't look like the manager is 100% committed to winning, which I guess is reflected in his squad selection but obviously this doesn't mean the players coming in won't give 100% themselves.

  15. Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 10-12 January

    Lazio to win - 1.57 at Bet365 (2.5 units)
    ;) Almost lived to regret that but a smashing freekick at the end saves the bet. +1.43 units. The two games tomorrow are certainly interesting ones. In the early kick off in Udine, both teams have named slighty under strength teams; Udinese have called up.... Handanovic, Padelli, Romo ; Basta, Danilo, Ekstrand, Fanchone, Ferronetti, Neuton, Pasquale, Pereyra.; Abdi, Doubai, Fernandes, Pinzi, Sissoko.; Di Natale, Fabbrini, Floro Flores, Torje. So no Isla, Armero and Dommizzi, or the three players called up to the forthcoming African Cup - Asamoah, Badu and Benatia Chievo have gone for….Puggioni, Squizzi, Coletta, Acerbi, Kirilov, Dramè, Frey, Mandelli, Morero, Sardo, Grippo, Gallozzi, Sammarco, Cruzado, Rigoni, Vacek, Moscardelli, Paloschi, Théréau, Grandolfo So for them there is no Sorrentino, Cesar, Jokic, Bradley, Hetemaj or Pellisier. Looking at the list of players left behind, I’m thinking that this could be a more open game, and like the recent league fixture between these two which ended 2-1, goals may be likely. Without Benatia, Dommizzi and Armero the Udinese defence is drastically weakened in my eyes, and that is compounded further by not having the excellent Asamoah and Isla who work hard in midfield to protect the defence behind them. Danilo, Ekstrand and Ferronetti are not the same defence that has been so lauded this season and could be susceptible in this match. The manager tried rotating the defence in the Europa League group stages last year but I wouldn’t say this is something that particularly worked. Cheivo are missing 5 or 6 core players, which should overall make them weaker as well. The most full strength area for Udinese is upfront were Adbi will break forward from midfield and support any two of the strikers. I do however suspect that Di Natalie will start from the bench and it’s hard to bet on goals in an Udinese game without him on the pitch. So with that in mind I will go for; Chievo to score over 0.5 goals 1.73 at Stan James (2 units) Even with the players they have missing I think Chievo will be able to put out a decent attacking line up (maybe Thereau, Paloschi and Moscerdelli all together), and a strong and experienced enough midfield (Sammarco, Rigoni, Vacek?) to compete here, and if they can do that they I fancy them to force something against a weakened Udinese. :hope
  16. Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 10-12 January Well I was thinking unders if Hernanes didn't play as Lazio have zero creativity without him, but he is selected in what us otherwise a bit of a mixed selection from Reja. Verona I reckon will sit back for a fair chunk of the game and see if Lazio can break them down. It wont be easy i'm sure as Verona seem a decent enough team but if Lazio are patience and get Hernanes on the ball then they should be able to create something whether from open play or a set piece. They can also bring Klose and the returning Matuzalem on if need be, which are two excellent subs to have. So i'll be going for the Lazio win. Not the most exciting of bets but i've decided to take a few more safe bets this year as long as the odds seem decent, and these do for a top 6 Serie A team vs a Serie B team. Lazio to win - 1.57 at Bet365 (2.5 units)

  17. Re: Italy - Coppa Italia - 10-12 January Here's the teams; Lazio: Bizzarri, Cavanda, Diakitè, Dias, Lulic, Gonzalez, Ledesma, Sculli, Hernanes, Cisse, Rocchi. A disposizione: Carrizo, Biava, Zauri, Garrido, Matuzalem, Del Nero, Klose. All: Reja Hellas Verona: Rafael, Abbate, Ceccarelli, Mareco, Esposito, Pugliese, Russo, Galli, Hallfredsson, Lepiller, Bjelanovic. A disposizione: Hu, Scaglia, Jorginho, Tachtsidis, D'Alessandro, Berrettoni, Pichlmann. All: Mandorlini

  18. Re: England > Midweek > Carling Cup > 10-11 January Well I think you're right that Cardiff are likely to exercise a degree of caution (indeed they have a lot of draws away from home this season in the league) , but surely it would be foolish for them to miss a chance to capitilise on a possibly under strength Palace team. I really think it would be beneficial to wait for team news or even starting line ups on this one but if it is the case that these Palace players do miss out then I think its likely that odds on Cardiff will fall beyond something that i'll be happy to take.

×
×
  • Create New...