Dylan
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Posts posted by Dylan
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Does anybody have anymore insight on the Genoa match, particularly how the players might respond to speculation that this may be Malesani's last match (if he doesn't win) and that the owner has already been in contact with Lippi and Gigi Di Canio. Will they want to fight for their manager? This will no doubt be a tough game against decent opposition, made tougher for Genoa as they have issues at centre back with no Kaladze, Bovo and a doubtful Danielli, which a confident pairing of Destro and Calaio could take advantage of. Odds not overly exciting but Siena are on my list of maybe's at the moment. I will however be taking; Palermo vs Cesena – Palermo -1AH 2.10 at Victor Chandler (2.5 units) I’ll be on the Palermo win here as well but will have a little flutter on this also. Palermo’s home record is sensational and has been for a while. They’ve won every game at home this season and in their last four home matches this bet would have come in. Whilst they have one or two injury / suspension problems I don’t think it should matter against a side like Cesena. In fact the players returning for Palermo (both Miccoli and Munoz) should improve the solidity of the team and should mean a routine win at the Renzo Barbera. Whilst they have shown good spirit and better performances recently Cesena are always going to struggle against better opponents. To make matters even more difficult for them here they will be with Antoniolli through suspension and still have Commotto and now Lauro out with injuries, which means three of the first choice back five are now missing. Cesena offer very little going forward and have relied on good defensive performances for the most part this season. They, like many do against Palermo, will try to defend for most of the game but with those key defensive losses it will be a tough job for them and ultimately not one I think they will do successfully. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December Well Klose has been named in the squad to go to Leece, but Konko hasn't. Doesn't necessary mean that Klose will play of course, as they may want to ensure he's fit for the match with Sporting on Wednesday. Still i'm going to take the following for this match; Leece vs Lazio - over 2.5 goals 2.15 at Stan James (2 units) Even with Klose out for me a lot of the signs seem to be pointing to goals in this one. Leece have a new manager who may come in and adjust things tactically. Azzurini1976 has pointed out that they have been doing a lot of work in training on a 5 man defence and whilst I don't think this is necessarily a bad idea as Leece have been pretty poor defensivly this season, as with all new systems it takes time for players to adapt and there is likely to be a few issues with it in early games, which Lazio can easily exploit. Another defensive issue is the suspension of Strasser who is a solid and committed player and one who they will miss badly particularly when trying to stop Hernanes controlling the match. On the plus side for Leece it looks like Di Michele is going to be back and he will partner Muriel up front. For this first time this season it looks like Leece might posses a decent goal scoring threat, which they have lacked this season. Other than putting the ball in the net i've been impressed by Leece attacking play, they have alot of pace and directness which can always upset teams. For Lazio, their injuries problems are well documented and although their defensive record is very impressive so far this season, with 2 of the first choice defenders out (Dias and Konko) this is always likely to cause problems, especially with Scaloni the likely replacement at right back (who I don't rate, especially when match fitness is low). They still however great attacking threats regardless of whether Klose plays, in the aforementioned Hernanes and in form Rocchi, so they should be confident of netting against the bottom placed team, who have conceded the second largest amount of goals this season. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 10-12 December
Its being reported (by both Gazetta and Corriere dello sport) that Klose and Konko both missed training today, so may be worth waiting to hear more news on this before backing Lazio. Still think Lazio should win this but with some injury doubts and an important match in the Europa League on Wednesday, Reja might not want to risk any players he has concerns with. I think all the 4 players mentioned in the above post should be ok to play (maybe with the exception of Mesbah) but the really big loss for Leece not mentioned yet is Strasser who is suspended having picked up 4 yellow cards so far. He's a solid defensive player in what is a leaky Leece team and would have been an important player in attempting to shackle Hernanes.Lazio have been one of Serie A's most progressive sides,and im taking them to carry that on against Leece,who have just appointed a new manager.Leece could find the task of beating Lazio even harder,as midfielders Grossmuller and Cuadrado could be out,as could Giacomazzi and Mesbah Bet - Lazio 3pts @ Evens - Betfair. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 November Not had the best results in Serie A lately, but here's hoping for a change in fortunes today. Siena vs Inter - over 2.5 goals 2.10 at bet365 (2 units) Siena are a very strong team at home and other than the loss against Juve in the second round of matches they have had 3 convincing home wins by 2 or 3 goals and played out an exciting 2-2 draw against an Atalanta team last weekend. Indeed overall a good run of only 1 defeat in the last 6 games has given Siena a solid platform so early in the season and I think with the comfort of that behind them they may have the confidence to go out and try to win this one against what is still a vulnerable and also depleted Inter side. Siena are likely to be missing Destro but Calaio will be back apparently which is a big boost for the home team. D'Agostino's set pieces could cause Inter some problems today as well. Inter on the other hand are still playing catch up and when you look at their next three fixtures (tricky ones vs Udinese, Fiorentina and Genoa) you would feel that they certainly need to get the three points here, and I expect them to play accordingly. Sniedjer is out and thats a big miss, but they have enough attacking talent to muddle through and having scored in all of their last 8 games (all comps) you have to fancy them to get on the score sheet here. The biggest worry will again be the defence and with Lucio & Maicon injured and Chivu and Jonathan not travelling with the squad either it means more changes to the back line and more worryingly a start for Nagatomo. Palermo vs Fiorentina - over 2.5 goals 2.10 at Paddy Power (2 units) The idea that Ultravires touched on that Fiorentina will have to fight fire with fire here is one that I agree with and should see an open games with goals I feel. At times under Siniša Mihajlović Fiorentina seemed to lack passion and desire in their matches (such as in the 0-0 against 10 men Cesena), and so Delio Rossi will know that the fans want more from the team under his reign, and after another quiet performance against Milan last week he will know that the fans are yet to see this change. It wont be good enough for them to sit back and try to prevent Palermo scoring because a) they are not good enough defensive wise to do this and b) its almost impossible for any team to stop them scoring at home. Palermo only failed to net three times at home last season and so far this season they have been in excellent form with 5 wins from 5 and an average of almost 3 goals a game. Cagliari vs Bologna - Bologna 0AH 3.70 at Bet365 (1.5 units) Maybe i'm crazy after watching Bologna's piss poor performance vs Cesena last weekend, but I just can't see Bologna losing this one in what should be a tight game. If anything Bologna have the player in Ramirez who is capable to unlocking such tight matches. Cagliari are in terrible form, having not won in six and are missing some key players with Astori, Nene, and Biondini all out, and I think things might get worse for them before they can start to get better. Other than the injuries I think its likely that 4 or 5 of the starting 11 today would have played in the cup match on Thursday which doesn't bode well fitness wise. Bologna on the other hand rested pretty much the full 11 midweek and so will be fresh to put right the wrongs of last weekend. Prior to that game things had been looking better for them under the new manager with back to back wins vs Chievo and Atalanta and a decent enough display in a defeat to Palermo. They might miss Perez who is a tough competitor, but the loss of Di Vaio could help Bologna as I personally don't feel he's been that impressive this season, and with Diamanti doing well in midweek he should get the chance to carry on that form. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 November Might have a little flutter on Udinese match tomorrow; Udinese vs Roma - over 2.5 goals 2.0 at bet365 (2 units) Personally I think Udinese could have a field day against this Roma defence, who play quite high up the pitch (particularly the full backs), and when they do get caught out don't really have much great pace to recover. As always Udinese will look to get runners forward when they break so their should be a lot of space for them to run into. Just like Barca, Roma look to defend by simply not giving away the ball and they generally have 60-65% possesion in their matches. This has shown signs of working in their recent performances with decent enough performances against Novara and Leece, but this Udinese team is a few steps up from those two and Roma have so far this season generally struggled against better teams (losses to Milan, Lazio and Genoa). This Udinese midfield is the ideal combination of defensive solidity which should allow them to break up Roma's possesion game and speed and directness in attack which will allow space to be exploited on the break. I fancy Udinese to score at least twice here, and am hopeful of at least one other coming from elsewhere. Can't rule out this Roma team scoring either, as they have been getting slowly better in recent games, and with Totti and Boriello out injured in recent weeks Enrique has found himself playing a more settled line up who are gradually getting use to each other. Pjanic in particular is looking much more of a threat, and Bojan despite missing a couple of excellent chances vs Leece is getting himself into good goal scoring positions. It took them a while to get going but 5 from Roma's last 7 games have been overs. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 19-20 November Siena vs Atalanta – over 2.5 goals 2.3 at bet365 (2 units) I’ve been really impressed by Siena at home this season. Other than an opening home defeat against Juve they have been very strong, winning 3-0, 2-0 and 4-1. Today they are without Calaio which is a blow given his scoring record this season, but they still have enough creativity (with the excellent D’Agostino and Brienza) and firepower in Destro to get amongst the goals today, against a Atalanta side who have conceded 13 goals already in their 5 away games. Atalanta are also missing key defender Massielo who has been an ever present so far so that should weaken their defensive line. Despite conceding a fair few away from home, Atalanta still posses an excellent attacking threat, with Moralez and Denis in fine form this season with another Argentinian Scheletto backing them up from midfield, and I would fancy them to score at least once this afternoon. Indeed they have scored in all away games this season, showing that they have relatively positive tactics when playing away. In fact all of their way games have gone over the 2.5 goal line this season, which is very encouraging for this bet. Parma vs Udinese – Udinese 0AH 1.98 at bet365 (3 units) Have to agree with others in that Udinese should get the win today, but will take draw cover just in case. I’m never too confident about backing teams away from home in this league. Udinese have a great mix of defensive solidity and strong attacking intent and this should spell problems for Parma, who I think may struggle to find a balance in their play today. At home they will want to attack, and its likely that Biabiany will start as well of Giovinco and Pelle. This could well leave them a man or two light in midfield and against a team who have possibly the best midfield in the league its likely they could get over run. However if Biabiany doesn’t play then they may struggle to bring the ball out of their own half and this just will just invite Udinese pressure, and we have seen this season that Udinese are capable of taking games to teams rather than just relying on counter attacks which may have been the case last year. Losing the experienced Modesto will also weaken Parma today. Genoa vs Novara – Genoa -1 2.5 at Paddy Power (2 units) Should be a routine win for Genoa here and will probably take the outright Genoa win along with this bet. Genoa are a strong home team, unbeaten so far at home this season, and will look to take the game to a depleted Novara team in poor form, and they should have enough quality to beat this handicap. For Novara, they are definitely missing key midfielder Porcari who is suspended for this match and having played all 10 games for them so far this season he will be missed, and the likes of Merkel and Veloso in the Genoa midfield will be looking to take advantage of this. Morimoto and the goal keeper Ukjani are also out, and Paci I believe is a doubt and will be another big loss if he doesn’t start or indeed isn’t 100% fit. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 19-20 November Whilst I probably would have liked a bit more on the Bologna odds as well i'm still going to have a punt on them; Bologna vs Cesena - Bologna to win 2.10 at Bet365 (2.5 units) Bologna have done really well since Stefano Pioli took over, winning 3 out of 5 games, and all of these games are ones where they would have expected to win, and this will be the same again today at home vs Cesena. Bologna really are a solid mid table side and their recent results reflect this, even if the league table is yet to do so. With Gaston Ramirez in the side they have a player who I feel is capable of winning games single handedly, and he should have enough to unlock this Cesena defence, who are solid and can handle aerial challenges but flounder a bit when the balls on the floor. Cesena despite a new coach still looked as poor as ever against Leece a couple of weeks ago. With the expection of Mutu (who himself hasnt shone yet this season) they have very little creativity and should pose little threat especially away from home. Additionally Colluci isn't in the match day squad and Candreva only makes the becnh which is a big loss to the stability of team in midfield and makes it even more likely that Ramirez could cause a bit of havoc. :hope
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Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 5 - 6
Oh well, not a great Saturday in Premier League for me -2.6 units. For today I was thinking of going in on the Wolves win, however didn't realise odds were as low are they are for it. Might wait for some in play action, and hope no-one scores in the first 20 or so minutes.Arsenal vs West Brom – Arsenal -1.5AH 2.20 at Victor Chandler (2 units:ok Newcastle vs Everton – Draw 3.30 at Victor Chandler ( 1 unit):\ Liverpool vs Swansea – both teams to score 2.10 at William Hill (2 units:\ QPR vs Man City – Man City -1.5AH 2.1 at Victor Chandler (2 units):\ -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November
Good start to weekend in Serie A, +2.1 units. For today; Udinese vs Siena – Udinese -1AH 2.20 at Victor Chandler (2.5 units) I’m with Ultravires on this one, we should see a win for Udinese today. I don’t have any concerns about the big midweek defeat as the team that day was mainly made up of 8 / 9 back up players who will be back on the bench today. The usual first eleven is a lot stronger, and this season have shown that they can take the game to the opposition rather than wait for counter attacking opportunities. They are 4 wins out of 4 at home including impressive displays against Fiorentina and Palermo. Siena will probably set up just like all the other 4 teams who have faced Udinese away this season and in all likelihood they will get picked off as well. Indeed on the Gazetta and Goal.com websites they seem to be indicating that Siena will pick the same team as won 4-1 last weekend. Whilst that was an impressive performance, I think you take a big gamble playing a 4 in midfield against Udinese. I guess either Destro or Calaio could drop deeper but that’s not really their game, and I would also have concerns with both Brienza and D’Agostino in midfield as albeit very good creatively, neither are overly known for defensive qualities. If Siena do try to take the game to Udinese then things could get even worse for them. Milan vs Catania – under 2.5 goals 2.20 at Coral (1.5 units) More injuries and suspensions for Milan, and as we saw earlier in the season, they could toil with some key players missing. Nesta will miss this game and they have long term injury issues with Pato, Flamini, Gattuso, Mexes and sadly now Cassano. Also banned for this match are Nocerino and Boateng. Those two being huge losses in my eyes. The midfield is therefore likely to include Seedorf, Ambrosini and Van Bommell and whilst these are still steady players, they are not overly creative and could tire as the game goes on. It’s also unlikely that Robino or Zlatan will step back into midfield to help them out if Catania do have any spells of pressure in the game. Catania are a decent away side and have scored a number of goals on the road this season so I’m sure they will have such spells.However I’m not sure whether they have enough quality in midfield and upfront to really trouble Milan, but they could frustrate them and prevent them from running away with this game. Chievo vs Fiorentina – Fiorentina to win 2.6 at Coral (2 units) Cheivo are missing 3 of the first choice back four, and Fiorentina should surely be looking to take advantage of this. For Cheivo, Bostan Cesar is banned, and Sardo and Morero are both still injured. Having conceded 4 against Siena its clear the loss of these players has had a major effect on Chievo’s defensive capability and Fiorentina should be looking to get the win. For Mihajlovic the pressure is off a little after a win vs Genoa last week and an apology from the Fiorentina fans for jeering him over the last few weeks, and this could allow them to play with a bit more freedom and really unlock the creative skills that they have in abundance. No really injuries concerns for Mihajlovics team either with the exception of Koldrup. Its probably worth noting that the weather is likely to be pretty shitty in Verona for this match and the pitch is likely to be affected somewhat. May limit what Fiorentina can do, but with 3 key defenders out I still think they can force the win. Cesena vs Leece – both teams to score 2.0 at Coral (2 units) Could be an open game this one, with both teams wanting / needing the win and so I think both will be going for it. Over 2.5 is a good option too but given the lack of striking quality both teams have perhaps it is too optimistic to expect either to score more than once. Cesena have a new manager and he will want to start with a win, and also could spring one or two tactical surprises on Leece. With Mutu back and the Cesena crowd always producing a good atmosphere I think they will somehow be able to force a goal. Leece have conceded in all but two games this season. For Leece, without Di Michele they rely on the speed and directness of players like Cuadrado when attacking and I think this could cause Cesena problems, especially with key midfielder Colucci out for Cesena. The Cesena defence have shown themselves to be quite solid against any aerial threats but if Leece can get the ball to Grossmuller and Cuadrado then they have enough trickery to get past the defence a fair few times I feel. :hope Still weighing up Napoli vs Juve, but I'm thinking goals. Just need to see what's availiable.Novara vs Roma – Roma to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (2 units) :hope -
Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 5 - 6 One more for today; QPR vs Man City – Man City -1.5AH 2.1 at Victor Chandler (2 units) City as we know are looking exceptional at the moment and 8 from their first ten games have beaten this handicap. There is talk that they might rest Silva and Balotelli but this may mean that they score only 2 or 3 goals rather than 5 or 6. Aguero and Nasri are pretty damn good replacements. QPR have been shaky of late, there was the 6-0 defeat to Fulham, they could have easily lost against a 9 man Chelsea team and it was easy for Spurs last weekend to bag the win. That Spurs game is probably the best benchmark we have for this match and finishing 3-1 it also beat this handicap. Additionally QPR are without Derry and Taraabt who have both started pretty much all of QPR’s games this season so that will unsettle them. Derry might have been useful in this match to help rough up the likes of Nasri and Aguero. :hope
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Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 5 - 6 Arsenal vs West Brom – Arsenal -1.5AH 2.20 at Victor Chandler (2 units) Going into a game against Arsenal with Mulumbu and most likely Dorrans in the middle of the pitch is unlikely to turn out well for Albion. Sharner’s competiveness and defensive nous would have been crucial in this game but with him out, I can see Ramsey and Arteta having a lot of the ball and plenty of time to pick the right pass to three in form strikers, and Arsenal may rack up two or three goals here. Defensively Arsenal are still a bit of a mess but it’s not as bad as it was with Vermalen back and he should be a great help to Santos. Without Long and potentially Odenwinge as well, don’t think Albion will offer much going forward to trouble any remaining weaknesses in Arsenal’s back line. Arsenal over 2.5 team goals is available at 2.5 which might also be of interest to some. Newcastle vs Everton – Draw 3.30 at Victor Chandler ( 1 unit) Everton are always a tough team to break down and will get men behind the ball here and put in plenty of hard work. Whilst you have to respect what Newcastle have done so far this season, they didn’t look particularly great against Wigan in their last home game and they toiled to get the winning goal. Pardew has already said he will be happy with a draw and I think that if Everton can keep it tight for 60/70 minutes then I’m not sure how much effort the Newcastle players will put in to get the win if they know there manager will be happy with a point. Liverpool vs Swansea – both teams to score 2.10 at William Hill (2 units) Given that both teams have scored in all of Liverpool’s home PL games to date, I’ll take a shot at this. I don’t have any concerns about Liverpool not scoring, Suarez has been fantastic this season and is capable of individual brilliance at any time, but he also has some decent creative players in Adam and Downing around him who will create chances. They also offer a good aerial threat from set pieces. So the question is whether Swansea can get a goal themselves, and I think they could. The defence for Liverpool still has some flaws for me and a solid display against a woeful West Brom didn’t really give us any more insight. Swansea will test them more as they play quick attacking football and get a lot of players forward when they do. I think a problem for Liverpool might come when any of Swansea’s central midfield three break forward. Lucas may be able to track one, but I’ll be dubious about who else in the Liverpool team might be disciplined enough to always track back. This could mean Swansea over load them on the break and could help them get the goal. Swansea themselves have scored in all six of their last league matches. Still weighing up a Man City handicap as well :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November
I'm fancying goals more than any win / handicap in the Cesena vs Leece match. Cesena have a new man in charge and combine that with this being a home game and Mutu being back and I think Cesena could nick this. Both sides will probably see this as a should win and I feel both will be going for the win. Haven't really seen enough of Cagliari this season to comment but against Cesena and Lazio it sounds like they were really poor, but then again Atalanta only have 1 win in 5 and their good run seems to have come to an end. Two very even teams so could be something in the +0.5 handicap here.I'm looking at Lecce and Cagliari on positive handicaps so I'd appreciate any views. Also overs in Palermo-Bologna. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November The Genoa vs Inter game has been postponed due to bad weather in the region. Genoa has so far been the worst affected place, but a lot of Northern Italy has had and will continue to pretty dodgy weather this weekend, worth considering for Chievo and Milan matches possibly??? Novara vs Roma – Roma to win 2.05 at Victor Chandler (2 units) Whilst Novara may also be hit by the bad weather, they have a synthetic pitch which shouldn’t I believe be affected by rain, and if this is the case then it should allow Roma to play the brand of possession football they are trying to implement under Luis Enrique. Personally I’ve been a bit surprised with the criticism that Enrique has been getting as I don’t think Roma have been that bad and the players have shown plenty of signs that they are buying into his philosophy and trying to make it work. The main problem has been upfront, were the attacking players are not making the runs to take advantage of the amount of the ball the midfielders are getting, however that should come with time and in Bojan and Borini I feel they have the right players who are capable of doing this. As long as they keep plugging away then they should have enough to break through this Novara defence once or twice in this match. In many of their matches this season Roma have had the majority of possession (between 60-65% a lot of the time) and without the ball Novara may well struggle. They don’t really have any exceptional ball winners and no-one who is capable of creating something from nothing. First choice goalkeeper Ujkani and defender Lizuzzo are both still out having pick up injuries and these are still big losses for Novara. :hope
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Re: UEFA Europa League > 3rd November
Lovely stuff, +2 units. :ok Congrats to other winners tonight, seemed a few on the Fulham handicap.Just a small one for tonight. Fulham vs Wisla - Fulham -1 2.0 at Ladbrokes (2 units) -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 3rd November Just a small one for tonight. Fulham vs Wisla - Fulham -1 2.0 at Ladbrokes (2 units) All the talk coming from the Fulham camp this week is that they will field a strong side in this match, and want to make amends for the events in the reverse fixture a couple of weeks ago. In that game Fulham looked reasonably comfortable before the sending off, and weren't overly troubled after it, going down by just the one goal. There will be no Senderos for Fulham tonight which is a bonus, and although they have a couple of other injuries, all of their key attacking players are likely to feature, with the exception of the suspended Dembele. Sounds like Wisla are struggling a bit with form lately and have a couple of key injuries so I feel it should be a relativly simple game for the hosts tonight. :hope
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Re: UEFA Europa League > 3rd November
As they have so far in this tournament Udinese have taken a bit of weaker team Madrid. There is no Domizzi, Pinzi or Di Natalie all of whom are first choice players normally. Torje is also not in the Europa League squad so will also miss out. The big concern for me with this Udinese tam would be if they go a goal down, as they just don't have enough attacking intent to chase the game. There is likely to be very few options to come off the bench and indeed Guidolin might have a few untested youngsters on there. We saw this against a really poor Celtic side, where they went a goal down and were fortunate to get a lucky penalty to take a point. However if they can hold on for long enough you never know they might sneak the win as they did in the reverse fixture scoring in the 88 and 90th minutes, and the winner vs Rennes was also a late one I recall. Personally I don't see anything worth betting on in this match but hopefully this info helps. :okAnyone knows if Udinese will be playing full team? Atl Madrid are a bit struggling at the moment altough they lost last match. But Udinese @6 B365 is a great price!! -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 2nd November
Good night for me, 2/2 and +5.5 units profit. Well done to all other winners tonight, seems like there is a fair few.Inter vs Lille – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at bet365 (2 units) :ok Villarreal vs Man City – Man City -1 2.63 at Bet Fred (2 units) :ok -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 2nd November Can see nothing to tempt me in CL tonight, but a couple for Wednesday Inter vs Lille – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at bet365 (2 units) Been on the overs with Inter quite a lot this season and going to give it another go here. Defensively Inter are so poor it’s unbelievable, and they now have another blow in losing Maicon for a few weeks at least. That means it’s likely the full backs will be 2 from either Jonathan, Nagatomo or Chivu which is awful news for them defensively. In the first match a couple of weeks ago between these two teams I thought Lille looked decent going forward especially down the right hand side against Nagaomo and if they can continue that and get something going on the other side of the pitch as well they should be able to get behind this Inter defence and create chances quite easily. Julio Cesar is also still out. With only 2 points from 9 so far Lille will also have to push for the win (which I think is very viable) if they want to keep themselves in this competition. Regardless Inter still possess much talent going forward with the likes of Milito, Pazzini and of course Sneijder and they’ve netted in all 5 of their last matches. Whilst Lille’s defence seems ok, they have conceded in all but one of their away games this season so there is hope for Inter. Villarreal vs Man City – Man City -1 2.63 at Bet Fred (2 units) Villarreal have a major problem attacking wise in this match with all their main strikers (Rossi, Ruben, Nilmar) injured. It should be pretty easy then for City to soak up any pressure and quickly get on the front foot in this match, and with the attacking talent they have you really expect them to get a couple at least a couple of goals here. Other than the attackers, midfielders Senna and Cani and full back Zapata are all missing, and all of whom have featured heavily so far for Villarreal this season. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A, 29-30th October
Not great in Serie A this weekend -2 units profit. Fiorentina match didn't sound like it was the goal fest we were expecting. I was following text commentry on that match and nothing happened for 20 minutes in the first half! Leece match sounds like it should of been an over but its the gamble you take when there is a lack of quality in both attacks. Tempted to go in on the Lazio game tonight, but will probs give it a miss. Think there is something in this game for Cagliari, as I feel Lazio will struggle to get the ball to their attackers with Hernanes and Matuzelum missing from the middle of the park. That should allow Cagliari to get on the front foot and maybe they could nick the win. DNB is at evens.Fiorentina vs Genoa – Over 2.5 2.1 at Paddy Power (2.5 units) :\ Leece vs Novara – over 2.5 goals 2.0 at Paddy Power (2.5 units):\ Parma vs Cesena – Parma -1AH 2.5 at bet365 (2 units) :ok -
Re: Italy - Serie A, 29-30th October
Mixed bag this evening, tiny loss overall in Serie A today. Inter were awful again, how anyone can consider backing them against any half decent team is beyond me. Probably got unlucky with Napoli's sending off but thats football I guess. Anyway for tomorrow; Fiorentina vs Genoa – Over 2.5 2.1 at Paddy Power (2.5 units) Just like ultravires I think there will be a few goals in this match. The Fiorentina manager Sinisa Mihajlovic is under a lot of pressure now with his side not having won in the league for 5 games as well as their being a little bit of unrest with a couple of his players. Failing to put in an impressive performance in this match could spell the beginning of the end for Mihajlovic so no doubt he’ll be going for the win. A lot of Fiorentina’s problems have come after Gilardino got injured a month or so ago, however he is back fully fit and Montolivo will also return for this match which will improve them attacking wise. However Fiorentina do have some problems defending particularly due to their weak midfield which can often be bypassed quite easily. Genoa have some decent players in that area of the park in Merkel and Veloso especially who could easily pass the ball around Fiorentina’s midfield three. If they do then they have a striker in great form in Palacio who will take his chances. In general Genoa do not play particularly defensively in their away games unlike a fair few other Serie A teams, and indeed all of Genoa’s away games this season have gone over. Leece vs Novara – over 2.5 goals 2.0 at Paddy Power (2.5 units) Two of the bottom four teams meet here both looking to arrest a run of poor defeats and performances and because of this I think both teams will be looking for the win to help them climb away from the danger zone. There have certainly been signs of improvement within this Leece side of late which should encourage them. They picked up a draw away to Genoa, before having an excellent first 45 minutes against Milan, and against Palermo they finished strongly creating a few chances and worrying Palermo with their directness. I think things will start to come together for them soon and indeed if they can put three past Milan there’s no reason they can’t do the same against Novara who have a pretty suspect defence. The only positive thing I’ve seen in Novara’s displays this season is that they do keep plugging away trying to get a goal. There’s no-one particularly who has that much class but they have a good spirit both at home and away. They’ve scored in all but two of their games this season which is evidence of this. Parma vs Cesena – Parma -1AH 2.5 at bet365 (2 units) Cesena just don’t have the quality at the moment to trouble even the most average of teams, and Parma should be able to record a relatively simple win here. Cesena who are still missing their main attacking threat Mutu through suspension, have scored just once in five games and this attack shouldn’t trouble Parma tomorrow. Defence wise they are well organised but Parma have enough creative skill from Giovinco and Biabiany to unlock them once or twice. :hopeFor tonights games; Catania vs Napoli – Napoli 0AH 1.98 at bet365 (3 units) :@ Inter vs Juve – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Paddy Power (2.5 units) :ok -
Re: England » Barclays Premier League » Oct 29-31 Great picks today dazzhfc.
2/3, and 3.2 units profit. Probably too optimistic on the Wigan game but the home side had a few good chances and hit the post I believe, so wasn't too far away.For today; Chelsea vs Arsenal - over 3.5 goals 2.8 at sportingbet (1.5 units) :ok West Brom vs Liverpool - Liverpool to win 2.2 at William Hills (2.5 units):ok Wigan vs Fulham - over 2.5 goals 2.2 at William Hills (2.5 units):\ -
Re: Italy - Serie A, 29-30th October Good luck to the Milan backers. I'm not convinced myself that they can pull of the win. Roma will still have a lot of the ball and although they never seem to really do much with it I think Milan might lack a little in midfield to win possesion that often. Can't see Ibra, Cassano, Boetang or Aquilani helping out by defending from the front too often.
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Re: Italy - Serie A, 29-30th October For tonights games; Catania vs Napoli – Napoli 0AH 1.98 at bet365 (3 units) Catania are really struggling to pick up wins at the moment and I doubt they’ll be picking one up tonight. Catania’s (who have 4 draws in the last 5) problems are mainly due to the number of injuries they’ve had throughout the season and a number of players are still out including Alejandro Gomez, Marco Biagianti and Pablo Alverez. Until they can get a bit of consistency I think Catania will still struggle for wins and I’m happy to essentially take Napoli DNB here. They looked strong in midweek and any concerns about the loss of Gargano were put aside after Dzemelli’s strong performance against Udinese. I also don’t think that Mazzarri will make the same mistakes as he’s made against Chievo and Cagliari this season and rest too many players. I expect all of the front three to feature in this match. Inter vs Juve – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Paddy Power (2.5 units) There were a number of bets I like for this match but this seemed the most sensible option. If I was an Inter fan I’ll be concerned about Juve’s attacking ability in this game. Juve will have most of the ball (think they are still averaging around 60% in most matches this season) and they have the players that can really make that possession count in Pirlo, Vidal and Pepe. They are helped by plenty of running off the ball and Matri in particular is looking in great form lately. Whilst Inter’s defence is slighty improving they are still a bit haphazard and I think that Juve can really capitilize on that tonight. Nagatomo isn’t the best defender and he may struggle against Pepe and the right back Lichtstiener, and Chivu isn’t the most intelligent of defenders and could be caught out by Juve’s clever plays. Inter are still missing Samuel and Julio Cesar as well which only weakens the defence. However despite all there prowess in midfield and upfront, Juve can turn off in games and we’ve seen that against both Genoa where they surrendered the lead twice and against Fiorentina were they turned off at 2-0 up and could have let Fiorentina back into the game (ended 2-1). With the likes of Pazzini and Sneijder in attack Inter will be able to take advantage when Juve do have some lapses. The straight Juve win and Juve to score over 1.5 are both availiable at 3.0 and I gave serious consideration to both. :hope
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Re: England » Barclays Premier League » Oct 29-31 For today; Chelsea vs Arsenal - over 3.5 goals 2.8 at sportingbet (1.5 units) Just a small bet on this one, but I do feel this game has got a lot of goals in it. Both teams are slighty defensivly suspect in my eyes and there are enough attacking threat in either side to cause defenders problems. Chelsea have been so strong at home this season, they've scored 3 or more in their last three games most impressively against Everton a couple of weeks ago. Mata and Sturridge have both been excellent this season, Torres is finding his form and Ramieres, Meireles and Lampard can all get goals from midfield. Personally I think they may have a bit of a field day against this Arsenal defence who do not convince me in the slightest. Djourou at right back is a worry, Vermalen wont start and Santos and Mertesacker are taking there time to settle and have looked a bit hit and miss in the matches i've seen them. As for Chelsea's defence they were troubled in parts by QPR with David Luiz looking woeful in that match, I would also have doubts about John Terry's mindset given everything thats going on with him at the moment. Whilst not as classy as Chelsea's attack, Arsenal still have al lot of pace in attack and in Van Persie an extreamly confident and on form striker. I'm expecting something like a 3-1 or a 2-2 here. West Brom vs Liverpool - Liverpool to win 2.2 at William Hills (2.5 units) I feel this will be a tight match but when you look at the two teams its Liverpool who have the players who are likely to create that bit of magic to get a goal. For me West Brom are probably more suited to playing away as I don't personally feel they have enough guile to really take the game to opposition when at home. They have good ball winners in midfield and a couple of direct and pacy attackers put not much else. As long as Liverpool don't over commit in attack too early in the game (which is unlikely given that they play with 5 in midfield) then they should be able to stay with West Brom. It will then be up to the likes of Gerrard and Suarez to pick off the West Brom defence, and i'm confident they'll be able to do just that. Wigan vs Fulham - over 2.5 goals 2.2 at William Hills (2.5 units) Going to go a little bit against the grain here and go for goals in this match. Whilst not being a must win for either side its one that they both feel they should win and if they carry that onto the pitch then theres a good chance of goals I feel. Indeed there is normally goals in most of Wigans home games (2 or more in all this season) and plenty last season and you can rely on Martinez to keep playing the same sort of football when at home. They have Rodallega back fully fit and potentially McCarthy and Di Santo as well which will be an attacking boost for them. If the probable line ups i've seen are true then with Fulhams right side of defence consisting of Baird and Senderos they could really be tested by Wigan today. Defensivly however Wigan are still as suspect as ever. Whilst Fulham are not the normally the most exciting of away teams, form this season hasnt been good (especially at home) and they sit in 17th place and another draw isnt really going to help them. I reckon that Jol will be instructing them to push for a very viable win today and they may play a bit more open and attacking than we usually see. :hope
England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 10-12 December
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 10-12 December For todays Premier League action i'm taking; Arsenal vs Everton – under 2.5 goals 2.10 at Stan James (2 units) Arsenal will be starting this match with 4 centre backs playing in defence. Whilst that will help at set pieces both attacking and defensive wise, it will also limit them going forward in normal play and whilst I think Arsenal will get the win I think they will really struggle in doing so. Everton are a solid team and always willing to battle in every game. Arsenal’s return to form has been great to see but I think it’s a match like this were you will see how big losses of Nasri & Fabregas were to them as well the injury to Wilshire as you’ll need a bit of creativity to break down Everton. Ramsey and Arteta are capable of this, but Everton will of course know Arteta’s game inside out and this could disadvantage Arsenal today. I can’t see the pace of Walcott being too much threat against the excellent Baines, and whilst Gervinho may have the beating of Hibbert, he is still lacking confidence in front of goals and will miss Santos who offers great support down that left flank. Everton not offering too much attacking threat at the moment, they are always a danger from set pieces but with 4 CB’s Arsenal look more adept at defending these than they would normally. Liverpool vs QPR – QPR to score over 0.5 goals 1.91 at Boyle Sports (2 units) I think this should be a game with a few goals, and it’s surely not unrealistic to expect QPR to net once. Liverpool are likely to put out a quite an attacking team, with Carroll, Suarez, Kuyt and Bellamy all predicted to start. Add this to central midfield containing Adam and Henderson and its looks a team that is quite attack minded and whilst this may benefit over the course of the game, it may prevent Liverpool from keeping a clean sheet. QPR have a good attitude as could be expected from a Neil Warnock side and always give their all and with some decent attacking talents themselves have been able to find the net quite a lot recently, scoring in all of their last 7 league games including 3 vs Stoke, 2 against Man City and goals against Spurs and Chelsea. With that record they will be confident of getting one against this Liverpool team. Norwich vs Newcastle – over 2.5 goals 1.80 at Coral (3 units) I very nearly took Norwich over 1.5 team goals at 2.2, but am playing it a little more cautiously with this one, and I’m confident it will come in. Kiddo112 has already done an excellent write up on this match / bet and I can only echo his thoughts. We will see a really depleted Newcastle defence today, definitively no Steven Taylor and almost certainly no Collocini. With Mike Williamson also out there is a real lack of central defensive cover, so James Perch and one other may have to cover CB which would be a huge worry for me as he’s always looked a little out of his depth in recent performances. They will also miss the fight of Tiote and Guthrie in the centre midfield. With all these issues you would imagine that Norwich will be able to exploit them and they are generally good goal scorers at home as it is, with goals scored in all but one home game this season. Despite their defensive frailties today, Newcastle have proved themselves as an strong attacking force this season and still have a fully fit set of attacking players to choose from as Guttierez is now back availiable. Norwich have a pretty average at best defence and have conceded in all home games this season, so you would fancy this Newcastle attack to cause them problems. :hope