Dylan
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Posts posted by Dylan
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 1-2 October
Excellent picks H1.Blackburn - Man City My selections: Man City -1 ah @2 9/10 City goals >2.5 @2.75 10/10 City goals >3.5 @6 2/10 City & >2.5 @2.25 5/10 with bet365 -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 1-2 October
:ok Thought the third goal was never going to come but thankfully in the end it did. +3.3 units profit.I'm going to join a few others in going for; Wolves vs Newcastle – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Ladbrokes (3/10 units) -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 1-2 October I'm going to join a few others in going for; Wolves vs Newcastle – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Ladbrokes (3/10 units) Previously I used to think that under McCarthy Wolves were a solid defensive side, but at the moment they're not looking great at the back. Johnson is yet to really impress, and Stearman looks dodgy at right back. With only one clean sheet in the 7 league games so far (and that was against a poor Villa side in a tight derby game) Newcastle will fancy their chances and have the speed and strength with the likes of Guttierez, Ba and Oberton combined with the passing ability of Cabeye to cause Newcastle a lot of problems I feel. Equally the front four of Wolves (Doyle, Jarvis, Keightly and Fletcher) have played together for a while now and will know each others games . Being the home side and being in such bad form I’m sure there will be an impetus to push forward and attack maybe more than usual and that front four will be able to create chances for each other. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 1-2 October On to my bets for Saturday, not betting much but enough to keep me interested. Roma vs Atalanta – under 2.5 goals 2.0 at Ladbrokes (3 units) Had the overs in Roma’s last game which was far from coming in and having seen them again I fancy a lot of their matches to go under this season. It was a much improved performance by Roma against Parma especially second half, but I still don’t think that the strikers they have are working with the system they play at the moment, so can’t see Roma scoring that many goals at the moment. Boriello and Osvaldo are too static, Borini lacks experience (he can turn his man, but then will do something wasteful) and whilst I personally think that Bojan should be starting every game as he has experience of this style of play with Barca, Luis Enrique has only given him 80 minutes on the pitch all season so obviously remains unconvinced of something. Atalanta I think will be happy with the draw, and having seen Siena get one a couple of weeks ago they will fancy their chances of doing just that. It should therefore be a tight game and I can see another close victory for Roma on the cards. For Atalanta I think an in form German Denis is good enough to lead the line for them on his own. This should allow them to adopt a 5 man midfield in an attempt to nullify Roma’s possession football (Roma have had more possession than all there opponents in Serie A so far this season) and so with most of the play in the middle of the park, can’t see too much happening in either penalty box. Inter vs Napoli – Napoli DNB 3.0 at Coral (1.5 units) Was thinking about this before the news of Cavani’s injury was made public but even without him, I still think the teams are quite evenly matched which is something not overly reflected in the odds, so I will have a very small flutter on the Napoli DNB Firstly I think the two wins that Ranieri has got have masked what have been pretty hit and miss performances with a fair few defensive lapses, by a defence that Napoli will be looking to expose. I though the defence struggled at times against Bologna’s Marco Di Vaio last weekend and they gave away a silly penalty to let Bologna back into the game at the time. In midweek vs CSKA they let their level slip after going 2-0 up and almost threw away the three points as CSKA came from 2-0 to draw level, if only for a couple of minutes. Still this points to a defence that is vulnerable and with the speed on counter that Napoli possess I think they could easily be undone even without Cavani. Going forward (and i’m assuming that Pazzini will be fit to play) I feel that Inter play quite narrow, and this could play into Napoli’s hands. Forlan may move around a little and Nagatomo provides some good runs from right back, but that’s the only width they have and Napoli will as always have a very solid core to team with three centre backs and the excellent Inler and Gargano in centre midfield. If Inter don’t find and use the space between the wing backs and the centre backs then Napoli should be able to subdue most of their attacks. Its also worth thinking about how well Napoli have done in their big game so far this season, getting a draw and a win in the Champions League and thumping Milan. Last season they didn’t always take their chances in these types of games but there does seem to be a belief and a will around the team at the moment that they are more than capable of beating the best opponents. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 1-2 October Regarding Palermo vs Siena, for me it’s hard to say how well Siena will cope against such an attack minded team especially on the road. The Siena defence has performed admirably in their previous games only conceding twice all season, however they are yet to face a team who play like Palermo. Against the likes of Juve and Roma, they play slower patience possession game which allowed Siena to get numbers back to defend and they seemed very well drilled and all knew their positions and all were up for the battle. Palermo are a lot quicker in turning defence to attack and without the help of the midfield in defending then its probably a defence that could be exposed. However, from what I’ve seen Siena may well be able to get a goal or two which could peg Palermo back. I’ve been impressed by the striker Calaio, he’s a good runner will always look for and find space. Sometimes the timing of runs lets him down but having scored twice at the weekend he will be confident and we know there will be holes in this Palermo defence to exploit. Calaio also has a good relationship with Brienza and is forming one with new signing D’Agostino. These are Siena two best attacking midfielders and if Calaio can get the space they these two have the ablity to get the ball to him. Given the threat that Siena could pose going forward I’ll be reluctant to back Palermo outright. I do think they probably will win, but in this match the better bet looks like the overs (available around 2.0), which is good I feel and is something I’m giving much consideration to myself. Not sure how much help this has been perhaps someone with a bit more knowledge of Siena from Serie B last year or there previous time in Serie A may give us a better view on how they feel the Siena defence will do when faced with relentless Palermo attacking.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > 29 September
2/3 and +6.25 units profits. Overall a good midweek for me. Gutted about the late Udinese penalty as well. Match was going more or less as expected but a more than dubious penalty decision gave Udinese the chance to score an equaliserCeltic vs Udinese – Only one team to score 2.35 at Coral (2 units) :@ Sporting vs Lazio – over 2.5 goals 2.0 at Coral (3 units) :ok Odense vs Fulham – Fulham to win 2.5 at Coral (3.5 units) :ok -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 29 September Apologies for the length of this post in advance, but have gone for three picks in this round of games; Celtic vs Udinese – Only one team to score 2.35 at Coral (2 units) Not a market I usually play in, but odds are decent and given everything we know about this match, might have a very good chance of coming in. Udinese are a reasonably defensive team as it is, but with the two main strikers not travelling it points to an additional midfielder coming in and an even more defensive focus. Celtic will huff and puff all night and Udinese will let them have the ball and they will either be able to nick a goal or over attack and allow Udinese to score on the counter. I fancy whoever scores first will them be able to see out the game. If Celtic lead and Udinese have to come out and attack for an equaliser this will not suit them especially with a lack of attacking options, and if Udinese are leading then they will have more defensive options on the bench and may happily play with no striker to see out the game. Sporting vs Lazio – over 2.5 goals 2.0 at Coral (3 units) Quite surpised to see the overs at better odds than the unders here.Both teams have attacking philosophies (Sporting a little more so than Lazio), and both will be taking this game seriously. We could see a real cracking match with a few goals. Lazio were a little lacklustre in front of goal against Palermo on the weekend, they had a number of chances but were unable to score. Most of Lazio’s hopes this season are going to be pinned on Cisse and Klose working well together and getting plenty of goals and Edy Reja will want to give them as much playing time together so they can work on their partnership and I reckon both will start tomorrow. Hernanes also offers a good attacking threat, and the rest of the team a good solid base for them to work from. Having dropped points in the first round of games it will be a strong team that the manager puts out. Its worth noting as well that before the result against Palermo all of Lazio’s other games this season (in all comps) had gone over, something which reflects the attacking philosophy. They are decent going forward but can sometimes lack concentration at the back. Cant speak much for Sporting but Portugese teams we now take this competition very seriously (Braga, Benfica and Porto were all in the semi’s last year), and they have shown goal scoring form in the league so far this season, so lets hope its replicated in Europe tonight! Odense vs Fulham – Fulham to win 2.5 at Coral (3.5 units) Fulham are going through a bit of a bad run at the moment, with no win in seven games. They haven’t played too badly in many of their games but it will obviously be a concern that they are not getting the wins. Therefore Jol will need to take every opportunity to get a win and get some belief and confidence back in his team and this match is a great chance for the team to do just that. I don’t think it will be an easy game at all, but Fulham have a solid defence and I’ll be surprised if Odense can test them that much. Upfront they are missing Zamora and Dembele, but Johnson and Dempsey are more than adequate attacking replacements and with Sidwell supporting and Murphy set pieces they should be able be able to score once or twice against a defence that has conceded 8 goals in its last two league games. :hope
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September
With the exception of Zlatan starting the game went pretty much as expected. Bet won & another 3.13 units profits to add to some winnings yesterday. A good midweek for me. Well done to other winners tonight.AC Milan vs Plzen – under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 at Stan James (2.5 units) -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Just the one I think for tomorrow; AC Milan vs Plzen – under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 at Stan James (2.5 units) I’ve reasonably confident that Milan will win this game but I don’t think they need or indeed will do it in style. With the number of players they have out they just need to muddle through and pick up points when and where they can. The players that they have out are some of their more creative ones as well (Pato, Robinho & Boateng) so they lack the creativity to play as quick and dynamically as they were at times last season. At the moment they are relying on set pieces or pot shots from the edge of the area to get their goals. Against Catania (1-0 win) these tactics were evident and I expect to see the same again here. El Shaarawy, a more enterprising forward is not even in the squad, and I don’t expect Ibra to start so Cassano is likely to be the focal point of the attack and he likes to come deep, leaving nobody to lead the line. Additionally with a Serie A match against Juventus at the weekend I’m sure Allegri will have an eye on that if and assuming they can get a goal in the first hour of this match, I think he might look to make a couple of changes and see out the game without any new injuries. Despite plenty of injuries in attack, they still remain strong in defence, with Van Bommel infront of the likes of Silva & Nesta I would hope they will see off any threats Plzen have to offer, but I’m not expecting Plzen to do that much attacking anyway. There were actually quite a few bets I liked the look of for this game. You can get odds of 1.91 for only Milan to score, and odds of around 4.0 for Milan to win by 1 goal and the odds are similar for a 2 goal win. Went with this one though as it covers the chance of a 0-0 :hope
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September
2/2 in the Champions League tonight and +6.54 units profit. Well done to all other winners tonight. :clapCSKA vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.20 at Ladbrokes (3/10) Napoli vs Villarreal – Napoli -0.5AH 1.98 at bet365 (3/10 units) -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 29 September Just a little Udinese team news; No Di Natalie, Domizzi or Torje (not in the Europa league squad anyway) in the squad. Di Natalie and Torje have been the prefered front two for Udinese so far this season and Domizzi is one of the first choice defenders. They may be able to cover Domizzi's absence ok, especially with not much threat in Celtic's attack. I would guess that Fabbrini will play up front on his own and they will replace Torje with a midfielder and go for a more straigthforward 3-5-1 (its normally a 3-4-1-1). From what Sprit of 67 said Celtic best players are the midfielders and with Udinese likely to pack that area of the park can see these two cancelling each other out, with a draw and unders likely. Yet to decide what bet's i'll be taking on Thursday but these are on the shortlist.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September
I'm going to avoid this game myself but surely there is goals in this one. If I was braver with my money I would take over 3.5. Both great attacking sides with defensive weaknesses in my mind. I still remain unconvinced by Richards and Clichy's defensive ablity, and with Toure lacking match practice I would fancy the likes of Ribery, Gomez, Muller and Robben off the bench to cause them a fair few problems. Barry as the defensive shield with those guys running at him doesn't bode much confidence either. I'm also not sure about Rafinha for Bayern and whether he can cut it at this level and as for Van Buyten, he is poor and is in for a tough night with Nasri, Silva and Aguero running rings around him.Like the look of the City team: Hart, Richards, K.Toure, Kompany, Clichy; Barry, Y.Toure; Nasri, Aguero, Silva; Dzeko. On paper if that team isn't worth a go at 3.7 DNB, I don't know what is.. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September
:ok Always good when a bet is won by half time. I've just put one more bet on for tonight and it's; Napoli vs Villarreal – Napoli -0.5AH 1.98 at bet365 (3/10 units) Odds have risen a bit on Napoli today by the looks of things and that has swayed me to have a little flutter here. Napoli are such a strong home team and have an style of play which can at times lull opponents into a false sense of dominance making them push for the goal and then they will just counter attack with one of the better front threes in European football and snatch goals. A prime example of this was against Milan two weeks ago, in a match that Milan had 60% position but still ended up losing 3-1. They will again look to do this tonight and I’m sure it will pay off for them (and me!) I’m yet to see Villarreal in action this season, but have seen plenty of them over the last few seasons. From what I’ve heard / read they still adopt a similar philosophy tactics wise, playing possession football like Barca do with plenty of tricky players making runs and space for themselves. However Napoli are quite strong defensively (with the exception of Fideleff who has been terrible so far this season and is likely to be dropped for this game, with Aronica coming in) and will not succumb easily to Villarreal’s pressure. Indeed their attacking ability is weakened at the moment, Carzola arguably their outstanding player for the last few years has gone, Ruben is out injured and Rossi is not 100% fit it seems. Napoli should be able to soak up whatever Villarreal throw at them and then get atleast one goal on the break to win the match. It is important for them to ensure they build on the point against City. :hopeCSKA vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.20 at Ladbrokes (3/10) -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September CSKA vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.20 at Ladbrokes (3/10) Have to fancy the overs in this match. Inter need to win this match to get their Champions League campaign up and running as well as to help to build on the momentum that came with the win over Bologna at the weekend, so will have to have an attacking mindset. Whilst it wasn’t an excellent performance against Bologna it was much improved and they were able to sustain periods of attacking pressure in the game despite missing the likes of Sneijder and Maicon. The only enforced change from that match will be Forlan but he’s struggling to settle in and Milito may have been Ranieri’s preffered option in this match anyway, so I think as they did at the weekend they will be able to create chances for themselves. However Inters worse area is defence, and for all their attacking pressure against Bologna they still looked shaky in defence. Nagotomo, Chivu and Samuel were all caused problems by Di Vaio in the match and he was often able to find space in behind them. I don’t know much about CSKA but with the likes of Doumbia and Love in the team they should be able to exploit these weaknesses in Inters defence. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 24-25 September
Udinese bet void and Parma bet lost. +4.25 units for the weekend. I'm disappointed as I thought there were enough good chances for three goals in the Parma vs Roma game, but well done to the unders backers. Have to worry for Parma though they looked pretty useless last night.Cagliari vs Udinese - Udinese DNB 2.1 at Bet365 (3/10 units) Parma vs Roma - over 2.5 goals 2.0 at bet365 (2.5/10 units) -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 24-25 September Also going to go against the thoughts of a couple of people on here and take Parma vs Roma - over 2.5 goals 2.0 at bet365 (2.5/10 units) First lets consider Parma, who I think have enough attacking ablity with Giovinco ,Crespo and Biabiany (now back from injury I understand) to exploit what are quite big holes in this Roma defence. With the two full backs pushing on, there should be space down the flanks and in the middle Burdisso and Kjaer looked very shaky when put under pressure by Siena in midweek. Even the likes of Briaza and Calaio of Siena were able to always find space against this Roma back line which will be promising to the Parma forwards. For Roma, they should look to take hope from Parma's opening day thrasing by Juve. In that match Juve's passing around midfield was neat and tidy and they were able to get runners from all over the pitch to exploit the Parma defence. This is a part of the philosophy that Luis Enrique is trying to install in the way Roma play and although they haven't had much success with this so far they should gradually get better at doing this. Even now though I still feel that if they can get Pizzaro,Totti or Pjanic on the ball then there will be runners for them to pass to and this will trouble Parma a little. The two full backs have shown they are willing to run at defences and hopefully if he starts with either or both of Borini & Bojan they will always be looking to turn and find space behind the defence. Considering this I think its a good possibility that there will be plenty of opportunities tonight so hopefully 3 of them can be taken. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 24-25 September Today i'm taking; Cagliari vs Udinese - Udinese DNB 2.1 at bet365 (3/10 units) Udinese still sit top of the league even after last nights matches and this is a good chance for them to consolidate that position. Udinese are an ideal away side to back, they will always play the same way, letting the home have the ball, soaking up the pressure and then looking to spring a counter when the times right. Attacking wise I don't think Cagliari will worry Udinese, they may have scored 6 goals already, but 2 of these came after Palermo had mentally stopped playing on Wednesday and against Roma they were able to capitalise on the Romans having a defender sent off. Udinese have a strong defence as well, so think the home side will have a real struggle to score. Against Milan in midweek Udinese were a bit more restrained going forward but I expect them to be more positive in their counter attacks today and with the speed of their midfield and Di Natalie upfront they should be able to create chances against an average at best Caglairi midfield and defence. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 24-25 September
2/2 today, very happy with that and +6.75 units profit. Well done to azzurini1976 as well who had similar bets this evening.One for Saturday; Bologna vs Inter - Inter to win 2.0 at Coral (4/10 units) :ok AC Milan vs Cesena – under 2.5 goals 2.10 at Ladbrokes (2.5/10 units) :ok -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Just the one Premier League bet for today. Newcastle vs Blackburn - Blackburn +0.5AH 2.05 at Bet365 (3/10 units) No reason why Blackburn can't draw or sneak a win here. Their last three results have been very positive for them and they are showing some signs of life now under Steve Kean. Defence wise they are looking a bit better with Dann settling in and Samba now back fit. They kept a clean sheet vs Fulham and were unfortunate with a last minute penalty against Everton other wise that would have been a clean sheet too. Arsenal was a strange game, but credit the fact that they tried to take the game to them rather than sitting back and absorbing the pressure. As demostrated in that game, upfront I think they have a goal or two in them, Rochina is capable of a bit of skill now and then and Hoilett speed and trickery will always be a threat. Yakubu as he did vs Arsenal will get them goals if they can supply him. So there is plenty there to trouble Newcastle, along with their own concerns concerns over fitness having played 120 minutes midweek. Simpson and Collacini in defence played all of those minutes as did Marveux and Obertan clocked up an hour also. All of these are likely to start in this match, so they may labour in the second half, and with a higher proportion of draws then any other result at home last season I think Pardew may settle for the point after their mid week exertions. I think overs or both teams to score would also be worth taking here. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 24-25 September One more from me AC Milan vs Cesena – under 2.5 goals 2.10 at Ladbrokes (2.5/10 units) Milan are looking so toothless in attack at the moment and are now without Pato as well, so as long as they can keep their discipline in defence Cesena should be able to keep this match tight. Despite not picking up many points I think Cesena have played ok in the first three games. An early lapse in concentration against Napoli was disappointing, but they pegged them back quickly and it wasn’t until Benalouane was sent off that Napoli were able to get the winning goals. It was a poor game against Catania on the second weekend, neither side covered themselves in glory but its worth noting that Catania’s only goal in that game came from the penalty spot. Again against Lazio midweek, they were more than equals for the first half and another penalty conceded gave Lazio the chance to get back in the game. As long as they don’t give Milan anything silly like in their previous games Milan may toil to get goals. At the moment Milans best area is defence so can’t see Cesena being able to trouble them too much. Mutu still has great quality but not much support around him and an experienced back four should be able to handle that. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 24-25 September One for Saturday; Bologna vs Inter - Inter to win 2.0 at Coral (4/10 units) I feel Inters current predicament is down to Gasparini's tactics only and not any other ingrained problems with the squad. So with Gasparini now gone, I expect Ranieri will at least in the short term revert back to a formation that will suit the players he's got and one which they are use to. A core of this team has played together for many years now so get them back to something they know and will instantly look a strong team again, strong enough to beat this Bologna side. Bologna will struggle this year if the start of this season and end of last season is anything to go by, having now not won in 13 Serie A games. With Di Vaio not scoring in 10 games now, Diamanti out injured and Acquafresca still settling in can't see where goals are going to come from in this match. This should allow Inter to focus on attacking and even though there are without Sneider, they should have enough of the ball to create a few opportunities to score and I think converting just one of these will be enough. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-22 September
:\ The sending off of Vucinic pretty much ruined this one with Juve 1-0 up at the time.Juventus vs Bologna - Juve -1.5AH 2.30 at Victor Chandler (4/10)
Bet void, probably should have taken Udinese on the + handicap like Ultravires did, so well done to him. Still thought it was a really disappointing performance by Udinese, before the game had fancied their counter attacks to hurt Milan, but in fact these attacks generally consisted of running up to the half way line before giving the ball straight back to Milan. They certainly missed Sanchez ability to run with the ball in this match. They only really started playing to their best in the last 10 minutes and in that time had 2/3 opportunities that brought saves from Abbiati, so was very annoying that they didn't play like that earlier.AC Milan vs Udinese - Udinese DNB 4.0 at Coral (3/10) -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-22 September Not entirly sure what that article says but he's fit according to the official Juve site, who has Pirlo listed in Conte's 21 man squad for this game as at the end of training today. We shall see how it plays out, but personally not too worried if he does start or is on the bench as like I say they have a number of other options to use. The likes of Del Piero or Krasic could come in a be a very capable play maker for them in this game.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-22 September One more for Wednesdays games is; Juventus vs Bologna - Juve -1.5AH 2.30 at Victor Chandler (4/10) I'm loving the look of this Juve team so far this season and have high hopes that they can keep it up and get a title challenge going. Didn't see the Siena game, but against Parma in the first game of the season they were fantastic in parts, great movement and passing all over the pitch with Pirlo pulling the strings. The fans will want many more games like that to grace the new stadium, and against a Bologna side who have had a troubled start to the season they will expect a similar score and performance. Bologna for there part will probably come with a defensive mindset dropping either Diamenti or Aquafrescha for an extra midfielder as they did away to Fiorentina in the first match of the season. However the great thing about this Juve team now is that they have great depth of squad and could bring the likes of Elia or Toni off the bench offering decent back up plans if they are struggling to break a more defensive Bologna down and because of that I cant see them not being able to win this match. The extra goal required for this bet just comes more out of optimism that with the attacking talents on the pitch and with Pirlo getting back to his best they should create a few opportunities and this Bologna defence is pretty poor and don't think they will be able to cope with 90 minutes of pressure and trickery from the Juve attackers. :hope
Italy - Serie A - 1-2 October
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Italy - Serie A - 1-2 October
One win, one loss meaning I break even in Serie A today.