Darran

It was one way traffic in the end and the result was never in doubt after Three Faces West decided he had had enough going out on the final circuit. The two of them went pretty hard up until that point and Southfield Vic was already struggling as well. In an ideal world he would have had an easier race and he wasn't going that fast up the straight, but it could be that he was just getting lonely at this stage given he was by himself for so long. He is in single figures for the Foxhunter now and I can see why because his record at Cheltenham is really strong and he has clearly improved from the Warwick run in his next two starts. He has 22L to make up on Hazel Hill based on that Warwick run and he might be up to it. I do think he deserves to be one of the leading contenders although I do think he is at his best on soft ground. One of his Cheltenham wins did come on good ground in 2015, but he clearly likes to get his foot in and if he did get some rain his chance would be increased for me.
Who knows what level Southfield Vic is at now, but it would have to be a very weak contest next time for me to want to back him. God knows what Three Faces West was doing and I thought he might have bled, but he didn't so maybe he had just had enough. 
It is a busy week of Hunter Chases coming up. There are two on Leicester's card on Tuesday including one of the most profitable ones of the season. Wednesday we have two more at Musselburgh and Wincanton and it is the same again on Thursday this time at Ludlow and Taunton. Will be hard to keep up the current strike rate of 9 out of 11 winning races, but hopefully it can be a profitable week ahead.

This is a key race for David Maxwell as he will be hoping he can get Shantou Flyer qualified for the Cheltenham Foxhunters. It is the last chance for him to do so with entries closing on Tuesday and he has to finish 1st or 2nd. I opposed him at Kelso on the back of what I thought was a shocking run at Warwick. At the time I didn't think a lack of a run was to blame, but he was certainly much better at Kelso. It was a strange race though because if you remember he hit 3 figures in running having led as he dropped to 3rd place and looked beat. He then stayed on again and was also helped by the fact Mr Mercurial dogged it in front. Even so beating Mr Mercurial is really solid Hunter Chase form and like I say it was a big improvement on what he showed at Warwick. I would imagine David will use similar tactics tomorrow and make the running with him and just try to out stay the others. We know he handles Cheltenham really well so it is understandable why they want to get him there. He has also ridden the last 3 winners of this race.
Paul Nicholls supplied the last two of those and he has what should be his main opponent Southfield Vic. Now the chances are he will be fit because of who trains him and he has run well fresh in the past. He won a handicap at Newton Abbot off 140 in May 2017 which was only 5 starts ago. The problem is the following 4 runs weren't great although granted they were decent races, but his last start was pretty poor. He has been entered a few times so I guess Nicholls was originally trying to qualify him for Cheltenham, but the weather and flu got in the way. I think he is capable of giving the favourite a test, but I think he will have to be at his very best to beat him.
I can't fancy the two outsiders, but you can give half a chance to Three Faces West. He was useful for Philip Hobbs and rating wise was around the same as Southfield Vic. He fell on his last two chase starts though at Haydock and that has to be a worry as Fontwell is a tougher jumping test in my opinion. Also you have to think there is every chance he will come on for his first run especially against two decent rivals.
I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much but I do think even money is value about Shantou Flyer. He needs to win this for me to be serious Cheltenham contender and he had to put in a serious effort to win at Kelso so he should be capable of winning this. Based on that the other two main rivals will have to be at their best to beat him and you couldn't be certain of that.
Shantou Flyer 2pts @ evens with Bet365

If only all races were as simple as that! The most surprising aspect was the drift. I can only think when the rain came people decided to lay it, but it was never going to have got into the ground that much and it was such a weak race it was unlikely to matter anyway. It went off odds against on Betfair which really was a gift for those that took it. There was never a moments worry as he sauntered to a 55L success. It was interesting to read that Sam is set to ride Road To Milan over Wonderful Charm in the Foxhunter so that obviously means he thinks that one holds the stronger claims, but as I said in the preview if we got good ground in 3 weeks time I can see Wonderful Charm not being far away. He reminds me a lot of Paint The Clouds who used to use this race for a Cheltenham prep as well. 
There isn't really a great deal you can say about the rest and I'm not sure any of them look like future winners. God knows who was backing Upswing which was the on the course gamble as he should never have been a 4/1 shot and he duly finished last of the 4 finishers.
It really has been a superb start to the season and to have made a profit on 8 of the first 10 races is very pleasing. I'm sure it won't go this smoothly the whole season, but the good run has set things up nicely for the remainder of it.
The next race is at Fontwell on Sunday which is likely to see Shantou Flyer bid to qualify for Cheltenham.

If only all races were as simple as that! The most surprising aspect was the drift. I can only think when the rain came people decided to lay it, but it was never going to have got into the ground that much and it was such a weak race it was unlikely to matter anyway. It went off odds against on Betfair which really was a gift for those that took it. There was never a moments worry as he sauntered to a 55L success. It was interesting to read that Sam is set to ride Road To Milan over Wonderful Charm in the Foxhunter so that obviously means he thinks that one holds the stronger claims, but as I said in the preview if we got good ground in 3 weeks time I can see Wonderful Charm not being far away. He reminds me a lot of Paint The Clouds who used to use this race for a Cheltenham prep as well. 
There isn't really a great deal you can say about the rest and I'm not sure any of them look like future winners. God knows who was backing Upswing which was the on the course gamble as he should never have been a 4/1 shot and he duly finished last of the 4 finishers.
It really has been a superb start to the season and to have made a profit on 8 of the first 10 races is very pleasing. I'm sure it won't go this smoothly the whole season, but the good run has set things up nicely for the remainder of it.
The next race is at Fontwell on Sunday which is likely to see Shantou Flyer bid to qualify for Cheltenham.

Im a new member I backed your tip on Monday  at lingfield and wonderful charm today I took 4/6 both won easily you obviously know your stuff thanks and keep em coming 

Nice one Darran, wish every winner was so easy 
 
Wow didn't notice the SP, because of the rain I guess.

Yep, thanks also, turned a losing day in to a winning one.

I was pretty annoyed that Musselburgh lost their big Cheltenham trials meeting not because it meant we lost a Hunter Chase, but because I really fancied Wonderful Charm for the Edinburgh National. The race looked perfect for him and I think he is a well handicapped horse at the moment. That wasn't to be and he now turns his attention to Hunter Chases again and I think he should win this race fairly comfortably. Last season might look a bit disappointing at first glance as he was well beaten at Cheltenham and Aintree, but you can ignore those efforts because the ground was way too soft for him. Indeed Paul Nicholls in a question and answer session on Twitter tonight said he will only go to Cheltenham this year if it is good ground. The ground was over watered at Stratford and I think he showed in 2017 that Stratford isn't his track, but to be fair he ran pretty well in the circumstances to finish 3rd as he did in the race the year before. The Fontwell win in May came in a pretty weak race, but he won without coming out of first gear and it showed that when he gets his ground he still has plenty of ability. He will certainly get his ground here and you can be pretty certain that he will be fit given Nicholls was keen on his chances at Musselburgh before it got called off.
Most of the opposition is nothing to write home about. Upswing followed his 4th at Warwick up with a stinker of a run at Ludlow and clearly isn't a 127 horse at the moment. Boa Island has been 3rd in 3 Mens Opens this term but that is miles away from being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm and Flugzeug wouldn't win if he started now. That leaves the only serious rival as Forgotten Gold. He is actually rated 9lbs higher in the handicap and has to only carry 11-7 including his jockey's claim compared with Wonderful Charm's 12-4. On that of course he should be a good thing himself, but he is 13 now and hasn't run since October 2017. That day at Wincanton he was a good 2nd to Mr Mix who I saw win at Charing on Sunday. At the age of 13 though off such a long lay-off I struggle to believe he is going to be anywhere near up to running to that mark and for me I can't see him being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm.
If it did come up good at Cheltenham next month Wonderful Charm probably wouldn't be without a chance and I am not surprised he has been backed into 8/11 for this race. I actually think that is still value because he only has one other horse to beat and I am pretty confident he will do so.
Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 8/11 with Bet365 and most other bookies

I was pretty annoyed that Musselburgh lost their big Cheltenham trials meeting not because it meant we lost a Hunter Chase, but because I really fancied Wonderful Charm for the Edinburgh National. The race looked perfect for him and I think he is a well handicapped horse at the moment. That wasn't to be and he now turns his attention to Hunter Chases again and I think he should win this race fairly comfortably. Last season might look a bit disappointing at first glance as he was well beaten at Cheltenham and Aintree, but you can ignore those efforts because the ground was way too soft for him. Indeed Paul Nicholls in a question and answer session on Twitter tonight said he will only go to Cheltenham this year if it is good ground. The ground was over watered at Stratford and I think he showed in 2017 that Stratford isn't his track, but to be fair he ran pretty well in the circumstances to finish 3rd as he did in the race the year before. The Fontwell win in May came in a pretty weak race, but he won without coming out of first gear and it showed that when he gets his ground he still has plenty of ability. He will certainly get his ground here and you can be pretty certain that he will be fit given Nicholls was keen on his chances at Musselburgh before it got called off.
Most of the opposition is nothing to write home about. Upswing followed his 4th at Warwick up with a stinker of a run at Ludlow and clearly isn't a 127 horse at the moment. Boa Island has been 3rd in 3 Mens Opens this term but that is miles away from being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm and Flugzeug wouldn't win if he started now. That leaves the only serious rival as Forgotten Gold. He is actually rated 9lbs higher in the handicap and has to only carry 11-7 including his jockey's claim compared with Wonderful Charm's 12-4. On that of course he should be a good thing himself, but he is 13 now and hasn't run since October 2017. That day at Wincanton he was a good 2nd to Mr Mix who I saw win at Charing on Sunday. At the age of 13 though off such a long lay-off I struggle to believe he is going to be anywhere near up to running to that mark and for me I can't see him being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm.
If it did come up good at Cheltenham next month Wonderful Charm probably wouldn't be without a chance and I am not surprised he has been backed into 8/11 for this race. I actually think that is still value because he only has one other horse to beat and I am pretty confident he will do so.
Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 8/11 with Bet365 and most other bookies

I was pretty annoyed that Musselburgh lost their big Cheltenham trials meeting not because it meant we lost a Hunter Chase, but because I really fancied Wonderful Charm for the Edinburgh National. The race looked perfect for him and I think he is a well handicapped horse at the moment. That wasn't to be and he now turns his attention to Hunter Chases again and I think he should win this race fairly comfortably. Last season might look a bit disappointing at first glance as he was well beaten at Cheltenham and Aintree, but you can ignore those efforts because the ground was way too soft for him. Indeed Paul Nicholls in a question and answer session on Twitter tonight said he will only go to Cheltenham this year if it is good ground. The ground was over watered at Stratford and I think he showed in 2017 that Stratford isn't his track, but to be fair he ran pretty well in the circumstances to finish 3rd as he did in the race the year before. The Fontwell win in May came in a pretty weak race, but he won without coming out of first gear and it showed that when he gets his ground he still has plenty of ability. He will certainly get his ground here and you can be pretty certain that he will be fit given Nicholls was keen on his chances at Musselburgh before it got called off.
Most of the opposition is nothing to write home about. Upswing followed his 4th at Warwick up with a stinker of a run at Ludlow and clearly isn't a 127 horse at the moment. Boa Island has been 3rd in 3 Mens Opens this term but that is miles away from being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm and Flugzeug wouldn't win if he started now. That leaves the only serious rival as Forgotten Gold. He is actually rated 9lbs higher in the handicap and has to only carry 11-7 including his jockey's claim compared with Wonderful Charm's 12-4. On that of course he should be a good thing himself, but he is 13 now and hasn't run since October 2017. That day at Wincanton he was a good 2nd to Mr Mix who I saw win at Charing on Sunday. At the age of 13 though off such a long lay-off I struggle to believe he is going to be anywhere near up to running to that mark and for me I can't see him being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm.
If it did come up good at Cheltenham next month Wonderful Charm probably wouldn't be without a chance and I am not surprised he has been backed into 8/11 for this race. I actually think that is still value because he only has one other horse to beat and I am pretty confident he will do so.
Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 8/11 with Bet365 and most other bookies

I was pretty annoyed that Musselburgh lost their big Cheltenham trials meeting not because it meant we lost a Hunter Chase, but because I really fancied Wonderful Charm for the Edinburgh National. The race looked perfect for him and I think he is a well handicapped horse at the moment. That wasn't to be and he now turns his attention to Hunter Chases again and I think he should win this race fairly comfortably. Last season might look a bit disappointing at first glance as he was well beaten at Cheltenham and Aintree, but you can ignore those efforts because the ground was way too soft for him. Indeed Paul Nicholls in a question and answer session on Twitter tonight said he will only go to Cheltenham this year if it is good ground. The ground was over watered at Stratford and I think he showed in 2017 that Stratford isn't his track, but to be fair he ran pretty well in the circumstances to finish 3rd as he did in the race the year before. The Fontwell win in May came in a pretty weak race, but he won without coming out of first gear and it showed that when he gets his ground he still has plenty of ability. He will certainly get his ground here and you can be pretty certain that he will be fit given Nicholls was keen on his chances at Musselburgh before it got called off.
Most of the opposition is nothing to write home about. Upswing followed his 4th at Warwick up with a stinker of a run at Ludlow and clearly isn't a 127 horse at the moment. Boa Island has been 3rd in 3 Mens Opens this term but that is miles away from being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm and Flugzeug wouldn't win if he started now. That leaves the only serious rival as Forgotten Gold. He is actually rated 9lbs higher in the handicap and has to only carry 11-7 including his jockey's claim compared with Wonderful Charm's 12-4. On that of course he should be a good thing himself, but he is 13 now and hasn't run since October 2017. That day at Wincanton he was a good 2nd to Mr Mix who I saw win at Charing on Sunday. At the age of 13 though off such a long lay-off I struggle to believe he is going to be anywhere near up to running to that mark and for me I can't see him being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm.
If it did come up good at Cheltenham next month Wonderful Charm probably wouldn't be without a chance and I am not surprised he has been backed into 8/11 for this race. I actually think that is still value because he only has one other horse to beat and I am pretty confident he will do so.
Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 8/11 with Bet365 and most other bookies

I was pretty annoyed that Musselburgh lost their big Cheltenham trials meeting not because it meant we lost a Hunter Chase, but because I really fancied Wonderful Charm for the Edinburgh National. The race looked perfect for him and I think he is a well handicapped horse at the moment. That wasn't to be and he now turns his attention to Hunter Chases again and I think he should win this race fairly comfortably. Last season might look a bit disappointing at first glance as he was well beaten at Cheltenham and Aintree, but you can ignore those efforts because the ground was way too soft for him. Indeed Paul Nicholls in a question and answer session on Twitter tonight said he will only go to Cheltenham this year if it is good ground. The ground was over watered at Stratford and I think he showed in 2017 that Stratford isn't his track, but to be fair he ran pretty well in the circumstances to finish 3rd as he did in the race the year before. The Fontwell win in May came in a pretty weak race, but he won without coming out of first gear and it showed that when he gets his ground he still has plenty of ability. He will certainly get his ground here and you can be pretty certain that he will be fit given Nicholls was keen on his chances at Musselburgh before it got called off.
Most of the opposition is nothing to write home about. Upswing followed his 4th at Warwick up with a stinker of a run at Ludlow and clearly isn't a 127 horse at the moment. Boa Island has been 3rd in 3 Mens Opens this term but that is miles away from being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm and Flugzeug wouldn't win if he started now. That leaves the only serious rival as Forgotten Gold. He is actually rated 9lbs higher in the handicap and has to only carry 11-7 including his jockey's claim compared with Wonderful Charm's 12-4. On that of course he should be a good thing himself, but he is 13 now and hasn't run since October 2017. That day at Wincanton he was a good 2nd to Mr Mix who I saw win at Charing on Sunday. At the age of 13 though off such a long lay-off I struggle to believe he is going to be anywhere near up to running to that mark and for me I can't see him being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm.
If it did come up good at Cheltenham next month Wonderful Charm probably wouldn't be without a chance and I am not surprised he has been backed into 8/11 for this race. I actually think that is still value because he only has one other horse to beat and I am pretty confident he will do so.
Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 8/11 with Bet365 and most other bookies

An interesting Hunter Chase this afternoon at Lingfield and the Full Trottle fully deserves his place at the head of the market. If you read my Hereford preview then you will know I am a big fan of this horse. He is so consistent and is a good solid horse and is one of my favourite horses running in Hunter Chases at the moment. He only won once last year when showing the benefit of a wind op at Ludlow, but his 2nds to Shotavodka at Hereford and Mr Mercurial at Cheltenham were top performances as well. I think he does have the best form in the race, but I'm not so sure that he is as far clear as the odds suggest. He was punted early on last night and has drifted out slightly to 10/11 this morning, but I still think that is on the short side. There is every chance this is going to be a strongly run race in what is likely to be holding ground and that could just see his fitness levels tested. He might well win and I am loathed to take him on, but I just don't see any value in his current price.
Excitable Island is the horse who was given the 4 miler on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night after Battle Dust lost his saddle cloth. He then did well to finish 4th at Stratford in the John Corbet Cup given he wasn't travelling from a fair way out. The problem is this race is over 2m4f and it isn't hard to think that connections have been forced to run here as I think this trip will be too sharp for him.
Net D'Ecosse was stuffed at Warwick behind Hazel Hill, but it is interesting he has been given a wind op since then so clearly connections thought there was a breathing issue. He retains the tongue-tie as well just to make sure. His last win came back in May at Kilbeggan over this trip in soft ground off a mark of 128. That form is obviously good enough to see him run a big race here, but there are two things that concern me. First of all his former trainer Noel Meade didn't think he wanted soft ground so this holding ground today might not suit. Also his form since coming over isn't the strongest. Now he was 2nd to Road To Rome's stablemate Irish Anthem at Clifton in December and his trainer is off the belief that Irish Anthem is better than Road To Rome, so if you take that at face value then it probably wasn't a bad run, but I am not so sure myself. Maybe the drop back to this trip will help, but if there is still a wind issue concern this race will test that.
Newsworthy is the other one in single figures. As I wrote in my review of the Taunton race I thought he ran better than his distance behind the winner suggests. Obviously we now know that he had no chance of beating Road To Rome, but I thought he traveled really in the race despite his jumping not being the best after he made a mistake early on which seemed to knock his confidence. Trip and ground look ideal and he clearly didn't stay 3m6f back in a point at Cocklebarrow, but he also made mistakes that day so that concern remains here. I do though think he still has a chance because if I am right about his running at Taunton then he would have a fair chance of hitting the frame here.
The only other one I think is worth talking about is the horse I am going to make the main bet in the race, Bally River Boy. Those who read my Ffos Las preview will know I had a small bet on him ahead of that race which of course didn't happen because of EI. Granted he pulled up at Warwick, but he couldn't make the running that day and I think he sulked. He should have a much better chance of making the running in this lesser race. He did well to win at Fontwell last season and he ran pretty well in the John Corbet Cup despite pulling up because he didn't stay that night. His reappearance run saw him win by 20L at Ffos Las. Now that wasn't the strongest race in the world, but that was still an impressive performance to win in testing ground. I don't think he will have any issues with the drop in trip here and I hope that he might be able to put the others under pressure with his front running tactics and we know he will just keep going as well. The final plus is that James King is back in the saddle after he rode him in that Ffos Las race. 
I think Full Trottle is the best horse in the race, but he could be vulnerable this afternoon especially at the price, and Bally River Boy is likely to make this a test in the ground and I think he has a good chance of being capable of making all. I certainly don't think he should be a double figure price. I am also going to have a small saver on Newsworthy because I thought the Taunton run was better than it looks on paper and hopefully he can jump better than he has done on both his starts this season.
Bally River Boy 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway
Newsworthy 0.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Betway

An interesting Hunter Chase this afternoon at Lingfield and the Full Trottle fully deserves his place at the head of the market. If you read my Hereford preview then you will know I am a big fan of this horse. He is so consistent and is a good solid horse and is one of my favourite horses running in Hunter Chases at the moment. He only won once last year when showing the benefit of a wind op at Ludlow, but his 2nds to Shotavodka at Hereford and Mr Mercurial at Cheltenham were top performances as well. I think he does have the best form in the race, but I'm not so sure that he is as far clear as the odds suggest. He was punted early on last night and has drifted out slightly to 10/11 this morning, but I still think that is on the short side. There is every chance this is going to be a strongly run race in what is likely to be holding ground and that could just see his fitness levels tested. He might well win and I am loathed to take him on, but I just don't see any value in his current price.
Excitable Island is the horse who was given the 4 miler on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night after Battle Dust lost his saddle cloth. He then did well to finish 4th at Stratford in the John Corbet Cup given he wasn't travelling from a fair way out. The problem is this race is over 2m4f and it isn't hard to think that connections have been forced to run here as I think this trip will be too sharp for him.
Net D'Ecosse was stuffed at Warwick behind Hazel Hill, but it is interesting he has been given a wind op since then so clearly connections thought there was a breathing issue. He retains the tongue-tie as well just to make sure. His last win came back in May at Kilbeggan over this trip in soft ground off a mark of 128. That form is obviously good enough to see him run a big race here, but there are two things that concern me. First of all his former trainer Noel Meade didn't think he wanted soft ground so this holding ground today might not suit. Also his form since coming over isn't the strongest. Now he was 2nd to Road To Rome's stablemate Irish Anthem at Clifton in December and his trainer is off the belief that Irish Anthem is better than Road To Rome, so if you take that at face value then it probably wasn't a bad run, but I am not so sure myself. Maybe the drop back to this trip will help, but if there is still a wind issue concern this race will test that.
Newsworthy is the other one in single figures. As I wrote in my review of the Taunton race I thought he ran better than his distance behind the winner suggests. Obviously we now know that he had no chance of beating Road To Rome, but I thought he traveled really in the race despite his jumping not being the best after he made a mistake early on which seemed to knock his confidence. Trip and ground look ideal and he clearly didn't stay 3m6f back in a point at Cocklebarrow, but he also made mistakes that day so that concern remains here. I do though think he still has a chance because if I am right about his running at Taunton then he would have a fair chance of hitting the frame here.
The only other one I think is worth talking about is the horse I am going to make the main bet in the race, Bally River Boy. Those who read my Ffos Las preview will know I had a small bet on him ahead of that race which of course didn't happen because of EI. Granted he pulled up at Warwick, but he couldn't make the running that day and I think he sulked. He should have a much better chance of making the running in this lesser race. He did well to win at Fontwell last season and he ran pretty well in the John Corbet Cup despite pulling up because he didn't stay that night. His reappearance run saw him win by 20L at Ffos Las. Now that wasn't the strongest race in the world, but that was still an impressive performance to win in testing ground. I don't think he will have any issues with the drop in trip here and I hope that he might be able to put the others under pressure with his front running tactics and we know he will just keep going as well. The final plus is that James King is back in the saddle after he rode him in that Ffos Las race. 
I think Full Trottle is the best horse in the race, but he could be vulnerable this afternoon especially at the price, and Bally River Boy is likely to make this a test in the ground and I think he has a good chance of being capable of making all. I certainly don't think he should be a double figure price. I am also going to have a small saver on Newsworthy because I thought the Taunton run was better than it looks on paper and hopefully he can jump better than he has done on both his starts this season.
Bally River Boy 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway
Newsworthy 0.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Betway

Wow that was some performance. Continues the very profitable start to the season as well mainly thanks to road to Rome.

I thought Risk A Fine won despite not having things in his favour on Friday. Having the best jockey in the race was a big help and he rode him superbly especially to take full advantage of the situation. Makes it easier when you are on the best horse in the race, but even so you need the right man on top. The track didn't suit him and a trip just over 3m was as far as he wants to go, but even though the 2nd ended up 2L behind he was always being held. I think he is much better than he showed today and I fully expect him to win more races this season. Good to take advantage of another drift as well and that makes it 5/7 so far this season. 
Onto one of the bigger Hunter Chases of the season, The Walrus at Haydock. Annoyingly it gets underway at 4.45 just as the football is about to finish and if you read my Non-League tips on here you will know I am at a game tomorrow. It is a fascinating race and having been on Road To Rome 3 times already I have to be on him again tomorrow. The ground is a slight concern as I don't think he wants it too soft, but it will continue to dry out so hopefully it will be fine. No doubt he will be making the running the again and I think he can take advantage out of being fit compared to the others who seem to be using this as a prep.
Pacha Du Polder will be bidding for a hat-trick next month and this is clearly a run to get him straight for Cheltenham. He was woeful in his prep race at Doncaster last season although he had a rushed preparation heading into that race and Nicholls has said he is further forward this time around. He has gone well fresh in the past so he might be up to winning this, but he is 12 now and it isn't hard to think he will come on for the run. He also seems to need a stamina test nowadays. I'm still not a big fan of the jockey either despite the fact she won at Cheltenham.
On ratings Ballotin has a chance here and we know the trainers horses are running better this season. His last start last season was terrible so he would certainly need to improve on that. He clearly handles all sorts of ground and I imagine this might well be Maxwell's Aintree horse. If he is fit he could be the biggest danger to the favourite.
Dineur won the Aintree Foxhunters the last time we saw him in 2017, but as I wrote ahead of the Ffos Las race he was due to run in last week, I think he will need this with Aintree very much the target.
Apart from when Ardea unseated on his Hunter Chase debut he has finished 1st or 2nd on every start under rules. That is some effort and he is a consistent sort. He finished just in front of Pacha Du Polder at Doncaster last year and as much as Pacha clearly needed it, this trip is probably more in Ardea's favour. I'm not sure he is up to winning this, but I can see him running well and he probably shouldn't be as big as he is. It would be surprising if any other the others got involved.
Road To Rome has already been well backed, but I still think the price is fair given he has race fitness on his side given the other main rivals are all making their seasonal return ahead of bigger targets. I am going to a save on Ballotin though. This trip and ground look ideal for him based on his French form and I can imagine he will be in better shape than his last run of last season. He also won on his seasonal/trainer debut last season off a mark of 139 and if he repeats that here he has to be involved at the finish.
Road To Rome 2pts @ 7/4 with Unibet
Ballotin 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and pretty much every other bookie.

Great to continue the great start to the season and that is now 5/7. Preview for Haydock will be up later.

Been a really strong start to the season with Ascokastar making it 4/6 so far. 

Over a month of the Hunter Chase season gone and we have only had 4 races which is crazy really. Hopefully the flu has been contained and the weather will play ball for the rest of the season. Having said that of course the flu is still playing apart and we are left with just 4 runners apiece in the two races on Thursday.
I will start at Kelso where Shantou Flyer is bidding to try and get one of his qualifying runs in for Cheltenham. Just to remind you he has to finish 1st or 2nd in two Hunter Chases by a week on Sunday. I am sure they thought he would be qualified by now and they might be regretting the decision not to run at Taunton where he would have likely finished 2nd. I thought his Warwick run was really disappointing though. It was nowhere near the levels he had shown last season and I don't even think you can say he might have needed the run. It goes without saying if he shows the form of last season then he will win this, but at long odds on I am happy to take him on. There has to be a bit of a question mark on the ground as well. He has won on good ground in the past, but not for sometime and it might just be that he needs to get his toe in nowadays.
Mr Mercurial has been a really solid Hunter Chaser for a few seasons now and arguably he was as good as ever last season as he landed a hat-trick of wins including a really good one at Cheltenham. His new owner/trainer/jockey paid £36k for him at the sales and it was probably enough money for a horse who is now 11. What concerns me more though is the fact he is a horse who has taken some knowing the past and he hasn't always been the easiest of rides. Having said that his form gives him a leading chance.
Sir Jack Yeats won this race last year and it was already his 3rd Hunter Chase run of the season although their hand was forced as they wanted to qualify him for Cheltenham. I thought he ran respectably enough at Cheltenham and Aintree and his 3 previous runs in Hunter Chases look's decent.
Purcell's Bridge's form doesn't look good enough although he did post a good time when winning on pointing debut last month, but his handicap form prior isn't good enough to win this.
Shantou Flyer might well win this, but I didn't like his Warwick run and he comes up against 2 useful performers here who I would rate higher than all the horses who finished in front of him that day bar the winner. If Mr Mercurial's new jockey can get him to put his best foot forward he has a strong chance and Sir Jack Yeats also has an obvious chance with the best jockey in the race. I think it is worth backing them both to small stakes.
Sir Jack Yeats 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Unibet
Mr Mercurial 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Unibet
As the betting suggests the Leicester race should be between Just Cause and Ascockastar. The latter was a surprise 2nd at Cheltenham to Barel Of Laughs and then in the Stratford Foxhunter when 2nd to Chosen Dream. The problem is those two runs were way above the form he had shown previously. I do think the Stratford form is suspect given the heavily watered ground, but you have to say he ran really well in both and he certainly has the best Hunter Chase form in this race.
Just Cause's Hunter Chase form is a fair way below what Ascokastar has shown. He was well beaten at Catterick last March and he ought to have won at Fontwell but his owner/jockey was probably to blame for him not wining. I'm not sure of the reason why, but Tim isn't riding his horses this season so that is certainly a plus for the horses chances. He ended last season with an easy win at Dingley. This year he has run at Cottenham twice. He was picked up by Now Ben in the first which is good form and every chance he needed that as he won later in the month beating Warwick 2nd Mr Mix by a neck.
The betting has gone for Just Cause, but I don't think there is much between the two of them at all and Asockastar looks the value now. He is likely to make the running and that could be beneficial in a small field. He won first time last season so you would hope that he would be fit enough here even though his main rival has had two starts so might have the advantage in fitness. For now I am prepared to take those 2 2nds at face value and his trainer is aiming him at Cheltenham next month. Like I say I don't think there is a great deal between them so will take Asockastar at the prices.
Asockastar 1pt @ 11/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Over a month of the Hunter Chase season gone and we have only had 4 races which is crazy really. Hopefully the flu has been contained and the weather will play ball for the rest of the season. Having said that of course the flu is still playing apart and we are left with just 4 runners apiece in the two races on Thursday.
I will start at Kelso where Shantou Flyer is bidding to try and get one of his qualifying runs in for Cheltenham. Just to remind you he has to finish 1st or 2nd in two Hunter Chases by a week on Sunday. I am sure they thought he would be qualified by now and they might be regretting the decision not to run at Taunton where he would have likely finished 2nd. I thought his Warwick run was really disappointing though. It was nowhere near the levels he had shown last season and I don't even think you can say he might have needed the run. It goes without saying if he shows the form of last season then he will win this, but at long odds on I am happy to take him on. There has to be a bit of a question mark on the ground as well. He has won on good ground in the past, but not for sometime and it might just be that he needs to get his toe in nowadays.
Mr Mercurial has been a really solid Hunter Chaser for a few seasons now and arguably he was as good as ever last season as he landed a hat-trick of wins including a really good one at Cheltenham. His new owner/trainer/jockey paid £36k for him at the sales and it was probably enough money for a horse who is now 11. What concerns me more though is the fact he is a horse who has taken some knowing the past and he hasn't always been the easiest of rides. Having said that his form gives him a leading chance.
Sir Jack Yeats won this race last year and it was already his 3rd Hunter Chase run of the season although their hand was forced as they wanted to qualify him for Cheltenham. I thought he ran respectably enough at Cheltenham and Aintree and his 3 previous runs in Hunter Chases look's decent.
Purcell's Bridge's form doesn't look good enough although he did post a good time when winning on pointing debut last month, but his handicap form prior isn't good enough to win this.
Shantou Flyer might well win this, but I didn't like his Warwick run and he comes up against 2 useful performers here who I would rate higher than all the horses who finished in front of him that day bar the winner. If Mr Mercurial's new jockey can get him to put his best foot forward he has a strong chance and Sir Jack Yeats also has an obvious chance with the best jockey in the race. I think it is worth backing them both to small stakes.
Sir Jack Yeats 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Unibet
Mr Mercurial 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Unibet
As the betting suggests the Leicester race should be between Just Cause and Ascockastar. The latter was a surprise 2nd at Cheltenham to Barel Of Laughs and then in the Stratford Foxhunter when 2nd to Chosen Dream. The problem is those two runs were way above the form he had shown previously. I do think the Stratford form is suspect given the heavily watered ground, but you have to say he ran really well in both and he certainly has the best Hunter Chase form in this race.
Just Cause's Hunter Chase form is a fair way below what Ascokastar has shown. He was well beaten at Catterick last March and he ought to have won at Fontwell but his owner/jockey was probably to blame for him not wining. I'm not sure of the reason why, but Tim isn't riding his horses this season so that is certainly a plus for the horses chances. He ended last season with an easy win at Dingley. This year he has run at Cottenham twice. He was picked up by Now Ben in the first which is good form and every chance he needed that as he won later in the month beating Warwick 2nd Mr Mix by a neck.
The betting has gone for Just Cause, but I don't think there is much between the two of them at all and Asockastar looks the value now. He is likely to make the running and that could be beneficial in a small field. He won first time last season so you would hope that he would be fit enough here even though his main rival has had two starts so might have the advantage in fitness. For now I am prepared to take those 2 2nds at face value and his trainer is aiming him at Cheltenham next month. Like I say I don't think there is a great deal between them so will take Asockastar at the prices.
Asockastar 1pt @ 11/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Over a month of the Hunter Chase season gone and we have only had 4 races which is crazy really. Hopefully the flu has been contained and the weather will play ball for the rest of the season. Having said that of course the flu is still playing apart and we are left with just 4 runners apiece in the two races on Thursday.
I will start at Kelso where Shantou Flyer is bidding to try and get one of his qualifying runs in for Cheltenham. Just to remind you he has to finish 1st or 2nd in two Hunter Chases by a week on Sunday. I am sure they thought he would be qualified by now and they might be regretting the decision not to run at Taunton where he would have likely finished 2nd. I thought his Warwick run was really disappointing though. It was nowhere near the levels he had shown last season and I don't even think you can say he might have needed the run. It goes without saying if he shows the form of last season then he will win this, but at long odds on I am happy to take him on. There has to be a bit of a question mark on the ground as well. He has won on good ground in the past, but not for sometime and it might just be that he needs to get his toe in nowadays.
Mr Mercurial has been a really solid Hunter Chaser for a few seasons now and arguably he was as good as ever last season as he landed a hat-trick of wins including a really good one at Cheltenham. His new owner/trainer/jockey paid £36k for him at the sales and it was probably enough money for a horse who is now 11. What concerns me more though is the fact he is a horse who has taken some knowing the past and he hasn't always been the easiest of rides. Having said that his form gives him a leading chance.
Sir Jack Yeats won this race last year and it was already his 3rd Hunter Chase run of the season although their hand was forced as they wanted to qualify him for Cheltenham. I thought he ran respectably enough at Cheltenham and Aintree and his 3 previous runs in Hunter Chases look's decent.
Purcell's Bridge's form doesn't look good enough although he did post a good time when winning on pointing debut last month, but his handicap form prior isn't good enough to win this.
Shantou Flyer might well win this, but I didn't like his Warwick run and he comes up against 2 useful performers here who I would rate higher than all the horses who finished in front of him that day bar the winner. If Mr Mercurial's new jockey can get him to put his best foot forward he has a strong chance and Sir Jack Yeats also has an obvious chance with the best jockey in the race. I think it is worth backing them both to small stakes.
Sir Jack Yeats 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Unibet
Mr Mercurial 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Unibet
As the betting suggests the Leicester race should be between Just Cause and Ascockastar. The latter was a surprise 2nd at Cheltenham to Barel Of Laughs and then in the Stratford Foxhunter when 2nd to Chosen Dream. The problem is those two runs were way above the form he had shown previously. I do think the Stratford form is suspect given the heavily watered ground, but you have to say he ran really well in both and he certainly has the best Hunter Chase form in this race.
Just Cause's Hunter Chase form is a fair way below what Ascokastar has shown. He was well beaten at Catterick last March and he ought to have won at Fontwell but his owner/jockey was probably to blame for him not wining. I'm not sure of the reason why, but Tim isn't riding his horses this season so that is certainly a plus for the horses chances. He ended last season with an easy win at Dingley. This year he has run at Cottenham twice. He was picked up by Now Ben in the first which is good form and every chance he needed that as he won later in the month beating Warwick 2nd Mr Mix by a neck.
The betting has gone for Just Cause, but I don't think there is much between the two of them at all and Asockastar looks the value now. He is likely to make the running and that could be beneficial in a small field. He won first time last season so you would hope that he would be fit enough here even though his main rival has had two starts so might have the advantage in fitness. For now I am prepared to take those 2 2nds at face value and his trainer is aiming him at Cheltenham next month. Like I say I don't think there is a great deal between them so will take Asockastar at the prices.
Asockastar 1pt @ 11/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power

I am going to start with the Ludlow review and it was great to see Road To Rome continue his great start to the season as well as helping us continue our great start as well. Hopefully I can now find a winner of a race that he isn't in. His jumping wasn't always great again although he never looks like falling, but with Cheltenham in mind I am not sure he can afford to make the mistakes he does round there, but I think he has to go on any shortlist. There was a brief moment when the 2nd looked threatening, but he was probably just idling really and the result was never really in too much doubt. Apparently it will be Leicester next at the end of the month before Cheltenham although I have already said that at least once before so he will probably be out again next week!
Queen Olivia ran her usual solid race and drifted back out to double figures again for anyone who preferred taking a chance e/w on something at a bigger price. The wind op seems to have worked as she pulled well clear of the rest and she was just beaten by a much superior horse. It was good to see Always On The Run run well given I tipped him up for the Hereford race. He couldn't lead today, but it seems in the right race he can find a wining opportunity this season. The only thing about the race that slightly surprised me as Marinero finishing even further behind the winner than he did last time. He emptied very quickly again and there could well be an issue there. O Maonlai was still going OK when taking a horrible fall so hopefully he is fine. Upswing ran a stinker as his profile suggested he might well do and god knows who was backing Connetable into single figures at one stage and he ran every bit as poorly as I suspected he would.
We sadly lost the Scottish Foxhunter on Saturday, but we have the Welsh version to look forward to on Thursday and obviously we have a David Maxwell runner in it. This time it is Ballotin who made a winning debut over here when landing the Bobby Renton at Wetherby in October 2017. That was off a mark of 139 and although the ground is very different here given he is ex French he is used to running in testing conditions. He ran poorly when he was last seen although that was over hurdles. He's only 8 so chances are he hasn't gone backwards all that much and we know that Hobbs' horses are running much better this season. If he won it wouldn't surprise me, but I am going to take him on as I am not sure there is too much scope for him to run that far behind his handicap mark of 141.
Dineur runs for the first time since winning the 2017 Aintree Foxhunters' which was a superb effort. He also finished 2nd in this after over a year off in 2016 when the ground was just as testing. The problem is this time around he is 13 and not run for getting on for 2 years. You also have to think this is a starting place as he builds up to Aintree so I find it hard to see him winning.
Double Ross is a really poor price at the time of writing and I would be amazed if he doesn't start in double figures. He faded pretty tamely at Warwick and hardly looked like a horse who was about to go and win one of these especially a race which is reasonably strong. Kelvingrove also looks plenty short enough on his first start since leaving Jonjo O'Neill's for just over £5k. He won at Taunton in December 2017 off 119, but he will need to better that to win this and the rest of his form around it is poor although to be fair that isn't unusual for a Jonjo horse! Millborough and Tulsa Jack are impossible to fancy although the latter did finish in front of Double Ross at Warwick and yet is 5x the price. Moreece won in the opening day of the last pointing season, but wasn't seen after that. He unseated on Hunter Chase night at Stratford prior to that and his other Hunter Chase run saw him finish a fair 5th in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow. He will surely need this though and that form leaves him with a bit to find.
That leaves me with the 3 horses I am going to back. First of all I can't help but have a small bet on Bally River Boy. Granted he was pulled up at Warwick, but he couldn't do his usual front running tactics that day. There is a chance he might not be able to do it here either, but it certainly looks easier for him to be able to do so and what is key for me is the fact he bolted up at the point-to-point here in December on heavy ground so we know he handles Ffos Las heavy. He might not be quite good enough to win, but at a biggish price he is worth a small cover bet e/w.
Mister Robbo has to be one of the selections. He seems to have improved a lot since coming to the UK despite only having two starts. He bolted up in a Restricted at Howick, but it is his 2nd last time at Clifton which really catches the eye. He pushed Road To Rome closer than any other horse so far this season and even managed to get into the lead at one point in the home straight. Now I am not going to say that he is a 130's horse himself, but he clearly looks to have a fair level of ability based on what I saw from the video of the race. He won his maiden in soft ground in Ireland so hopefully this different ground will be fine and if that form is to be taken at face value he is more than capable of going close in this.
Now the main bet is actually going to be a horse I was not only originally going to take on here, but was also going to take on at Hereford before it got called off. I wasn't that impressed with Vedettariat's form when he first came here in 2017 and his jumping left plenty to be desired especially when he was 2nd at Horseheath. However I was looking at his form again this afternoon and I wondered if his jumping might be better in heavy ground given he enjoyed those conditions when trained by Willie Mullins. I then found some quotes from Mullins when he won a Beginners' Chase in 2015 where he said Ruby Walsh got off and said he wants heavy ground and he jumped better in it. I then found a story on the official point-to-point website about the horse. Gina Andrews comes back from injury and was keen to ride him and then trainer/husband Tom Ellis added this 
 "He had a touch of a leg, which is why he's been off a long time, but everything is in his favour tomorrow. He's won over that trip in Ireland and will love heavy ground – the wetter the better. We made such a mess of him in his first season, and when we ran him on soft he won by half the track."
The yard have been flying and there is little doubt for me that he will be fit and ready to do himself justice. I think 6/1 is a very fair e/w price and we know he is one horse in the race who will love the ground.
Vedettariat 1.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365
Mister Robbo 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
Bally River Boy 0.25pts e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power

3/4 for Road To Rome and 3/4 for me as well as the good start to the season continues.

Thanks to 3 abandonment's there have only been 3 Hunter Chases so far and in the last preview I jokingly put that Road To Rome doesn't run in the race having won the first two. Amazingly he is set to line up again here and there is a very strong chance he not just run in 3 of the first 4 Hunter Chases but win them as well. He was superb over course and distance last month and I thought it was a better win than the Taunton one as his jumping was better and he beat a good horse in Beeves. Marinero was 21L behind in 3rd and as much as he will probably come on for the first run of the season and he does have a 4lbs turnaround in the weights I just don't see how he can reverse the form. The handicapper put Road To Rome up to 139 and very few Hunter Chases earn that sort of mark. The ground is a slight concern, but he has run well enough with a bit of cut before and he has obviously improved a lot since his former rules days anyway so I don't think he necessarily needs good ground.
Upswing ran well enough at Warwick behind Hazel Hill to finish 4th, but I am not sure he achieved a great deal there and he was never that consistent for his former trainer so he wouldn't be certain to back it up. 
Queen Olivia has been the big market mover although the 20/1 was a silly price in the first place. I like her as a horse and it would be good to see her at some stage add to her Fontwell Hunter Chase win in 2017, but I struggle to see how she can land this. That Fontwell race she was given a superb ride and that certainly was a big reason why she won. Last season I thought the 2nd here in April behind Full Trottle was good, but she was always held by Mr Mercurial back here later in the month and then didn't stay at Cheltenham on her final start. She has had a wind op and it might well help her although for me she has a bit to find with the likes of Road To Rome despite the fact she gets over a stone in weight from him. Place at best for me.
I put up Always On The Run for the Hereford race we lost last week, but this looks tougher than that race. He has won on soft ground, but that was over 2m at Kempton and he has avoided it since including being a non-runner. Funnily enough he is in the Beeves colours and he also front runs so Will might just let him go on again as he did with Beeves, but he wouldn't be as strong a stayer. He might be able to hold on for a place and it will be annoying if he does win after putting him up for the Hereford race, but I just can't see how if Road To Rome runs his race that he can beat him.
I was at Cartmel the day Flying Eagle won their in 2017 in what was his last win, but that was a weak Novice Chase and he was beaten in handicaps of marks in the mid 120s after that. He also looks like he needs a shorter trip than this although he does have a very shrewd trainer in Hunter Chases so if he did run well it wouldn't be a total surprise.
Connetable was 3rd in the Pertemps at The Festival last March, but he showed nothing in two runs for his new trainer last year. He was a Non-Runner at Warwick and I didn't fancy him there and his two handicap runs are miles away from what will be needed to win this.
I thought O Maonlai was interesting at Hereford, but this is a different test and I think he will need a lesser race than this although I will be keeping a close eye on how he gets on. The other two have a lot to find.
If Road To Rome is at the same level he has been so far this season I just don't see how he doesn't win this. I saw a picture of him on Twitter that was taken the other day and he looks in really good shape at the moment. I thought he should be odds on so odds against is worth taking. Marinero might be capable of getting closer this time and he has an obvious place chance. Always On The Run should come on for his run behind Hazel Hill and might hold on for a place after being up there with the pace. Queen Olivia certainly has it in her to reward those who got on e/w at the big prices as well.
Road To Rome 3pts @ 11/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power

3/4 for Road To Rome and 3/4 for me as well as the good start to the season continues.