Hunter Chase - 4.25 Fontwell

[Darran]

This is a key race for David Maxwell as he will be hoping he can get Shantou Flyer qualified for the Cheltenham Foxhunters. It is the last chance for him to do so with entries closing on Tuesday and he has to finish 1st or 2nd. I opposed him at Kelso on the back of what I thought was a shocking run at Warwick. At the time I didn't think a lack of a run was to blame, but he was certainly much better at Kelso. It was a strange race though because if you remember he hit 3 figures in running having led as he dropped to 3rd place and looked beat. He then stayed on again and was also helped by the fact Mr Mercurial dogged it in front. Even so beating Mr Mercurial is really solid Hunter Chase form and like I say it was a big improvement on what he showed at Warwick. I would imagine David will use similar tactics tomorrow and make the running with him and just try to out stay the others. We know he handles Cheltenham really well so it is understandable why they want to get him there. He has also ridden the last 3 winners of this race.

Paul Nicholls supplied the last two of those and he has what should be his main opponent Southfield Vic. Now the chances are he will be fit because of who trains him and he has run well fresh in the past. He won a handicap at Newton Abbot off 140 in May 2017 which was only 5 starts ago. The problem is the following 4 runs weren't great although granted they were decent races, but his last start was pretty poor. He has been entered a few times so I guess Nicholls was originally trying to qualify him for Cheltenham, but the weather and flu got in the way. I think he is capable of giving the favourite a test, but I think he will have to be at his very best to beat him.

I can't fancy the two outsiders, but you can give half a chance to Three Faces West. He was useful for Philip Hobbs and rating wise was around the same as Southfield Vic. He fell on his last two chase starts though at Haydock and that has to be a worry as Fontwell is a tougher jumping test in my opinion. Also you have to think there is every chance he will come on for his first run especially against two decent rivals.

I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much but I do think even money is value about Shantou Flyer. He needs to win this for me to be serious Cheltenham contender and he had to put in a serious effort to win at Kelso so he should be capable of winning this. Based on that the other two main rivals will have to be at their best to beat him and you couldn't be certain of that.

Shantou Flyer 2pts @ evens with Bet365

[Darran]

It was one way traffic in the end and the result was never in doubt after Three Faces West decided he had had enough going out on the final circuit. The two of them went pretty hard up until that point and Southfield Vic was already struggling as well. In an ideal world he would have had an easier race and he wasn't going that fast up the straight, but it could be that he was just getting lonely at this stage given he was by himself for so long. He is in single figures for the Foxhunter now and I can see why because his record at Cheltenham is really strong and he has clearly improved from the Warwick run in his next two starts. He has 22L to make up on Hazel Hill based on that Warwick run and he might be up to it. I do think he deserves to be one of the leading contenders although I do think he is at his best on soft ground. One of his Cheltenham wins did come on good ground in 2015, but he clearly likes to get his foot in and if he did get some rain his chance would be increased for me.

Who knows what level Southfield Vic is at now, but it would have to be a very weak contest next time for me to want to back him. God knows what Three Faces West was doing and I thought he might have bled, but he didn't so maybe he had just had enough. 

It is a busy week of Hunter Chases coming up. There are two on Leicester's card on Tuesday including one of the most profitable ones of the season. Wednesday we have two more at Musselburgh and Wincanton and it is the same again on Thursday this time at Ludlow and Taunton. Will be hard to keep up the current strike rate of 9 out of 11 winning races, but hopefully it can be a profitable week ahead.

Edited February 24, 2019 by Darran

[yossa6133]

Southfield Vic ran ok, will have shaken off some cobwebs.

[Darran]

The problem is when you have been that well beaten by a good horse is that it is hard to tell what that horse has run to. Also was he being niggled because he couldn't go the pace or was it because he is a bit lazy now. I've got an open mind especially as he ran like it on his previous start.