Darran

The 11/4 about The Dellercheckout didn't last anymore than 2 minutes and within about 20 it was into 6/4 with Bet365. At the time of writing he is a best price of 11/8 which is certainly more realistic than the 11/4 to start with. He seems to have turned a corner for new connections as the best of his chase form was a win in a 5 runner race off 116 at Taunton a year ago. Connections put the improved run down to the fact he wore blinkers and they didn't work the 2nd time as he pulled up at Chepstow in April. Having cost £260k in March 2017 his new connections paid just £21k last year. Interestingly the headgear isn't needed anymore as he has won 2/2 in points. First up he beat Don Bersy by a length and Don Bersy beat Bishops Road (apparently Cheltenham Foxhunters bound) in November and won on his next start so that form looks solid. He then ran out a easy winner in soft ground at Sheriff Hutton and connections have mentioned possibly going to Cheltenham with him. He is only 7 and the pointing form does seem a step up on his rules form for Nicholls, but obviously we don't know how he is going to go back under rules.
Monbeg Gold has moved from Jonjo to his wife and it is her first ever runner under rules although I think she has had 6 runners in points from what I can tell. He was off from May 17 until October 18 so clearly had an issue and in that time he had a wind op. He needed the first run over hurdles, but back over fences he won in November and then in April last year off 115 and 118. He was raised to 130 after that when he unseated at Uttoxeter way too early to know what he would have done. My guess is they want to be aiming him at either Cheltenham or Aintree and he has run well after a lay off before. The Southwell win got him a Racing Post Rating of 136 and if he repeats that that might well be enough to win.
Dieu Vivant was unfortunate at Ludlow when the falling Alcala hampered him over course and distance last month. He was still travelling well enough at that stage so he might well have given Alcala a race. He should come on for that run as well and although they went no gallop which might mean the form is a bit suspect, there doesn't look like there will be a great deal of pace in this race either. He is far from out of this.
Llancillo Lord won a weak Fakenham hunter chase last year and was then 5th at Kelso and 2nd over 2m1f at Stratford on hunter chase night. I'm not sure he wants this trip although if they do go no pace that will help, but I also don't think he will be good enough anyway.
O Ceallaigh looked on the downgrade in Ireland and was only 6th on his first run over here in a point in December 2018. He did actually make the running that day although he didn't in Ireland. The market will speak volumes about his chances, but on his first start for over 400 days it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.
Sam Cavallaro's season is no doubt based around the 2m race on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and won't be good enough, whilst Asangy has trip and ground issues.
If The Dellercheckout was still 11/4 I would be putting him up, but 11/8 is too short in my view as he faces a couple of decent rivals. Monbeg Gold is certainly interesting, but again his price seems about right. Therefore at this stage Dieu Vivant is the bet. He was backed on course last time so was clearly fancied to go well and given he is only 7 he is open to progression still as well. The pointing form book gave him a rating of 123 for that run and The Dellercheckout's rating is 125. That suggests there isn't much between them and is over priced for me at 6/1 as I would have him around half that price.
Dieu Vivant 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365

The 11/4 about The Dellercheckout didn't last anymore than 2 minutes and within about 20 it was into 6/4 with Bet365. At the time of writing he is a best price of 11/8 which is certainly more realistic than the 11/4 to start with. He seems to have turned a corner for new connections as the best of his chase form was a win in a 5 runner race off 116 at Taunton a year ago. Connections put the improved run down to the fact he wore blinkers and they didn't work the 2nd time as he pulled up at Chepstow in April. Having cost £260k in March 2017 his new connections paid just £21k last year. Interestingly the headgear isn't needed anymore as he has won 2/2 in points. First up he beat Don Bersy by a length and Don Bersy beat Bishops Road (apparently Cheltenham Foxhunters bound) in November and won on his next start so that form looks solid. He then ran out a easy winner in soft ground at Sheriff Hutton and connections have mentioned possibly going to Cheltenham with him. He is only 7 and the pointing form does seem a step up on his rules form for Nicholls, but obviously we don't know how he is going to go back under rules.
Monbeg Gold has moved from Jonjo to his wife and it is her first ever runner under rules although I think she has had 6 runners in points from what I can tell. He was off from May 17 until October 18 so clearly had an issue and in that time he had a wind op. He needed the first run over hurdles, but back over fences he won in November and then in April last year off 115 and 118. He was raised to 130 after that when he unseated at Uttoxeter way too early to know what he would have done. My guess is they want to be aiming him at either Cheltenham or Aintree and he has run well after a lay off before. The Southwell win got him a Racing Post Rating of 136 and if he repeats that that might well be enough to win.
Dieu Vivant was unfortunate at Ludlow when the falling Alcala hampered him over course and distance last month. He was still travelling well enough at that stage so he might well have given Alcala a race. He should come on for that run as well and although they went no gallop which might mean the form is a bit suspect, there doesn't look like there will be a great deal of pace in this race either. He is far from out of this.
Llancillo Lord won a weak Fakenham hunter chase last year and was then 5th at Kelso and 2nd over 2m1f at Stratford on hunter chase night. I'm not sure he wants this trip although if they do go no pace that will help, but I also don't think he will be good enough anyway.
O Ceallaigh looked on the downgrade in Ireland and was only 6th on his first run over here in a point in December 2018. He did actually make the running that day although he didn't in Ireland. The market will speak volumes about his chances, but on his first start for over 400 days it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.
Sam Cavallaro's season is no doubt based around the 2m race on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and won't be good enough, whilst Asangy has trip and ground issues.
If The Dellercheckout was still 11/4 I would be putting him up, but 11/8 is too short in my view as he faces a couple of decent rivals. Monbeg Gold is certainly interesting, but again his price seems about right. Therefore at this stage Dieu Vivant is the bet. He was backed on course last time so was clearly fancied to go well and given he is only 7 he is open to progression still as well. The pointing form book gave him a rating of 123 for that run and The Dellercheckout's rating is 125. That suggests there isn't much between them and is over priced for me at 6/1 as I would have him around half that price.
Dieu Vivant 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365

The Wetherby hunter chase always attracts a strong field even if it doesn't have many runners and the 2020 renewal sees last year's Cheltenham Foxhunter winner Hazel Hill clash with Minella Rocco. I thought Hazel Hill made a perfectly respectable seasonal debut at Sheriff Hutton last month and it reminded me of his seasonal return last time around. It obviously told us nothing new, but it doesn't look like he has lost any of his ability. I just can't see Minella Rocco beating him as he is firmly on the downgrade and had very little to beat in the end at Warwick last time. I do find it interesting that Derek O'Connor is coming over for the ride though as it wasn't something I was expecting, but I can't see it making any difference to the result and I am firmly in the Hazel Hill camp.
The Scottish Foxhunter at Musselburgh also sees an odds on favourite in Southfield Vic. He won 4 on the bounce last year including 2 in 2 days at Newton Abbot and Fontwell. If the ground stays good to soft then it will be fine as although he has won on soft it seems he prefers better ground. The bigger concern is that he ran poorly on his seasonal return last season at Fontwell, but he his trainer says he is ready to run and this doesn't look the strongest race in the world. We know he stays and Natalie Parker gets on well with him.
Mr Mercurial is the only other one close to him in the betting, but I just can't have him over this trip. His ideal trip has always looked around 2m6f and he can get away with 3m as he did at Perth last season, but when going up to 3m2f at Kelso he was found wanting for stamina. He also ran really poorly in his seasonal return at Alnwick in December which is a worry. I would actually be pretty surprised if he won.
Band Of Blood was pretty useful for Dr Newland and won a handicap at Doncaster 2 years ago off 126. He didn't show a great deal after that albeit in some good races, but you get the feeling he is on the downgrade. It is his first run in a year as well so I think he can be opposed.
I can't really understand why Nine Altars is a shorter price than Buck Dancing. Off level weights Buck Dancing beat Nine Altars by nearly 7L at Alnwick back in December and since then he has been a 20L 3rd back at Alnwick and then was beaten into 2nd last weekend at Friars Haugh. He did finish in front of Mr Mercurial at Kelso in May, but that does stand out compared to his other 2 hunter chase runs including when 4th in this race 2 years ago.
Initially I thought Buck Dancing would be a non stayer although I think his poor effort at Taunton was probably in my mind and he didn't really see his race out that well that day. Also his 2nd to Earth Leader over 2m6f at Stratford in May was also in mind. Having looked more closely though I think he has a real chance of seeing this trip out. He certainly didn't seem to be stopping in his two handicap wins over 3m at Southwell and Perth in the summer and he stayed on well to win that race at Alnwick mentioned above. I am prepared to forgive his Taunton run and I think he has a good chance of hitting the frame.
Big Casino is coming a long way for this and his two runs at Larkhill this season don't look too bad. The 2nd to Earth Leader was good on his return and he was likely to be around a 15L 3rd to Virak last month when coming down at the last. He stays well so that isn't an issue and he might be capable of hitting the frame. The one thing that puts me off though is the fact he seems to need good ground and I just wonder if might be too soft for him even at Musselburgh.
I thought Border Breaker looked well handicapped when he went back handicapping last summer after running in points and put him up on all 3 times at Hexham, Worcester and Cartmel. Hexham he ran well over a trip on the short side for him against a very well handicapped horse. The other two times he was poor though and he seems a very moody individual. I also think he needs quicker ground than this.
Onto the bets then. First of all I like the Hazel Hill/Southfield Vic double which at the moment pays 2.34/1 with Bet365 although it is a bit higher with other bookies if BOG doesn't affect you. I am going to put up Buck Dancing to finish 2nd to Southfield Vic and also have a small e/w bet on him as well.
Hazel Hill/Southfield Vic 2pts double @ 2.34/1 with Bet365
Southfield Vic to beat Buck Dancing 1pt f/c
Buck Dancing 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with BetVictor (12/1 with Bet365 with BOG)
 

The Wetherby hunter chase always attracts a strong field even if it doesn't have many runners and the 2020 renewal sees last year's Cheltenham Foxhunter winner Hazel Hill clash with Minella Rocco. I thought Hazel Hill made a perfectly respectable seasonal debut at Sheriff Hutton last month and it reminded me of his seasonal return last time around. It obviously told us nothing new, but it doesn't look like he has lost any of his ability. I just can't see Minella Rocco beating him as he is firmly on the downgrade and had very little to beat in the end at Warwick last time. I do find it interesting that Derek O'Connor is coming over for the ride though as it wasn't something I was expecting, but I can't see it making any difference to the result and I am firmly in the Hazel Hill camp.
The Scottish Foxhunter at Musselburgh also sees an odds on favourite in Southfield Vic. He won 4 on the bounce last year including 2 in 2 days at Newton Abbot and Fontwell. If the ground stays good to soft then it will be fine as although he has won on soft it seems he prefers better ground. The bigger concern is that he ran poorly on his seasonal return last season at Fontwell, but he his trainer says he is ready to run and this doesn't look the strongest race in the world. We know he stays and Natalie Parker gets on well with him.
Mr Mercurial is the only other one close to him in the betting, but I just can't have him over this trip. His ideal trip has always looked around 2m6f and he can get away with 3m as he did at Perth last season, but when going up to 3m2f at Kelso he was found wanting for stamina. He also ran really poorly in his seasonal return at Alnwick in December which is a worry. I would actually be pretty surprised if he won.
Band Of Blood was pretty useful for Dr Newland and won a handicap at Doncaster 2 years ago off 126. He didn't show a great deal after that albeit in some good races, but you get the feeling he is on the downgrade. It is his first run in a year as well so I think he can be opposed.
I can't really understand why Nine Altars is a shorter price than Buck Dancing. Off level weights Buck Dancing beat Nine Altars by nearly 7L at Alnwick back in December and since then he has been a 20L 3rd back at Alnwick and then was beaten into 2nd last weekend at Friars Haugh. He did finish in front of Mr Mercurial at Kelso in May, but that does stand out compared to his other 2 hunter chase runs including when 4th in this race 2 years ago.
Initially I thought Buck Dancing would be a non stayer although I think his poor effort at Taunton was probably in my mind and he didn't really see his race out that well that day. Also his 2nd to Earth Leader over 2m6f at Stratford in May was also in mind. Having looked more closely though I think he has a real chance of seeing this trip out. He certainly didn't seem to be stopping in his two handicap wins over 3m at Southwell and Perth in the summer and he stayed on well to win that race at Alnwick mentioned above. I am prepared to forgive his Taunton run and I think he has a good chance of hitting the frame.
Big Casino is coming a long way for this and his two runs at Larkhill this season don't look too bad. The 2nd to Earth Leader was good on his return and he was likely to be around a 15L 3rd to Virak last month when coming down at the last. He stays well so that isn't an issue and he might be capable of hitting the frame. The one thing that puts me off though is the fact he seems to need good ground and I just wonder if might be too soft for him even at Musselburgh.
I thought Border Breaker looked well handicapped when he went back handicapping last summer after running in points and put him up on all 3 times at Hexham, Worcester and Cartmel. Hexham he ran well over a trip on the short side for him against a very well handicapped horse. The other two times he was poor though and he seems a very moody individual. I also think he needs quicker ground than this.
Onto the bets then. First of all I like the Hazel Hill/Southfield Vic double which at the moment pays 2.34/1 with Bet365 although it is a bit higher with other bookies if BOG doesn't affect you. I am going to put up Buck Dancing to finish 2nd to Southfield Vic and also have a small e/w bet on him as well.
Hazel Hill/Southfield Vic 2pts double @ 2.34/1 with Bet365
Southfield Vic to beat Buck Dancing 1pt f/c
Buck Dancing 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with BetVictor (12/1 with Bet365 with BOG)
 

So we found out that Earth Leader doesn't stay more than 3m. Granted he was keen in the early stages and that didn't help him stay, but he looks like 2m6f is his ideal trip. He clearly handled the ground well enough because until his stamina ran out he travelled really well and jumped superbly. I think he is a top class horse and although Cheltenham talk is no more you would imagine that Aintree will be on the agenda. One slight doubt would be if his stamina might run out late on as although it is over 2m6f on a flat track it can still be a bit of a test.There is a decent hunter chase at Leicester over 2m6f as well in a month's time which would surely make plenty of appeal also.
In the end Virak didn't really have anything to beat with Earth Leader not staying and Mustmeetalady running way below par. It was clearly still a good effort though and although he is a bit below top class at this level he will surely be placed to win more races.
I did mention in the preview that Mustmeetalady isn't always the most reliable and he didn't seem to enjoy things at all today. He is clearly better than that, but you wouldn't necessarily want to take a shortish price about him.
We have a double header on Saturday with races at Musselburgh and Wetherby.  

Jockey is a huge plus especially given he is 7lbs. Carver can't ride him anymore as he's turned pro. Today is a test to see if Earth Leader can go to Cheltenham in my view and if he stays he wins. I think he will stay but it is obviously an unknown as things stand.

After we lost Hereford today Wincanton becomes the 4th race of the season and it does look a 3 horse race. I notice Kelvingrove has had a wind op over the the summer and that will probably help him see out his races better which he didn't seem to be doing last season. He might find a race at some stage this season, but it is hard to see it being this one with the 3 in front of him in the betting looking to have better form than him.
Mustmeetalady is the one we have seen in a hunter chase already this season after his really good 3rd at Taunton. The step up in trip will certainly help him as he was finishing his race off well over 2m7f that day and as I said after the race he looks a likely candidate for the 4m race on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night. He looks a big player here although he does sometimes struggle to convert his chances which is a slight concern.
Rose Loxton is double handed with Virak and Earth Leader. Virak is the one that has been made favourite at the time of writing and he has had a pretty good time of it since going pointing and hunter chasing. He won well at Ascot and Ludlow last season although he showed he isn't at the top level of hunter chasers when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Hazel Hill at Cheltenham in May. He was then 2nd at Stratford more of which I will mention later. He was a winner on his seasonal comeback earlier this month when beating Southfield Theatre by a length. That's useful form although the time wasn't overly quick. Ground and trip won't be an issue for him.
I have not hidden the fact I hold Earth Leader in high regard. He progressed massively last season and I was really impressed with his wins at Fontwell and Stratford. I thought he looked at least 130 horse to me and he comfortably saw off Buck Dancing at Stratford who now has a rating of 115. Granted that one was a behind Mustmeetalady at Taunton so on a line through him he has a bit to find. Also the horse he beat on his seasonal debut was Big Casino and he was going to finish a well beaten 3rd to Virak at Larkhill. So again on a line through him he has work to do, but his winning time was more impressive in comparison to the rest of the card. Speaking of times we can compare what both horses did at Stratford in May given they ran over the same distance and Earth Leader's winning time was 2.5 seconds quicker than the winners time in Virak's race. Given he is now just 7 he should still be improving and I imagine Rose left plenty to work on given he will have some big targets ahead. Now there are two unknowns about him. First of all we have no idea if he will stay and I suspect this is being used as a test to see if he can go to Cheltenham. I think he will at least stay this far round here, but as I as I say it is an unknown. The second point is the ground. He was withdrawn due to soft ground when trained by Nicholls so that is a worry. However I can't believe his trainer would run him if she didn't think he would handle it given she already has another in the race and could have run him somewhere else. Also Fontwell had over watered that night and it might not have been as soft as it will be here, but it was certainly on the softer side. That gives me hope he will handle it. 
Strictly speaking on the figures Earth Leader has a bit to find, but he is the progressive horse in the race with the potential to be a Foxhunters horse. If he ends up not staying then so be it, but I am more than happy to pay to find out as I think he is the best horse in the race and 11/4 is too big in my view. I am going to have a small save on Mustmeetalady as well as although I am worried about his win record, he was a big eye-catcher at Taunton and this test will suit him much more than that.
Earth Leader 1.5pts @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor (5/2 with Bet365 if you want/are able to get BOG
Mustmeetalday 0.5pts @ 11/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor

After we lost Hereford today Wincanton becomes the 4th race of the season and it does look a 3 horse race. I notice Kelvingrove has had a wind op over the the summer and that will probably help him see out his races better which he didn't seem to be doing last season. He might find a race at some stage this season, but it is hard to see it being this one with the 3 in front of him in the betting looking to have better form than him.
Mustmeetalady is the one we have seen in a hunter chase already this season after his really good 3rd at Taunton. The step up in trip will certainly help him as he was finishing his race off well over 2m7f that day and as I said after the race he looks a likely candidate for the 4m race on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night. He looks a big player here although he does sometimes struggle to convert his chances which is a slight concern.
Rose Loxton is double handed with Virak and Earth Leader. Virak is the one that has been made favourite at the time of writing and he has had a pretty good time of it since going pointing and hunter chasing. He won well at Ascot and Ludlow last season although he showed he isn't at the top level of hunter chasers when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Hazel Hill at Cheltenham in May. He was then 2nd at Stratford more of which I will mention later. He was a winner on his seasonal comeback earlier this month when beating Southfield Theatre by a length. That's useful form although the time wasn't overly quick. Ground and trip won't be an issue for him.
I have not hidden the fact I hold Earth Leader in high regard. He progressed massively last season and I was really impressed with his wins at Fontwell and Stratford. I thought he looked at least 130 horse to me and he comfortably saw off Buck Dancing at Stratford who now has a rating of 115. Granted that one was a behind Mustmeetalady at Taunton so on a line through him he has a bit to find. Also the horse he beat on his seasonal debut was Big Casino and he was going to finish a well beaten 3rd to Virak at Larkhill. So again on a line through him he has work to do, but his winning time was more impressive in comparison to the rest of the card. Speaking of times we can compare what both horses did at Stratford in May given they ran over the same distance and Earth Leader's winning time was 2.5 seconds quicker than the winners time in Virak's race. Given he is now just 7 he should still be improving and I imagine Rose left plenty to work on given he will have some big targets ahead. Now there are two unknowns about him. First of all we have no idea if he will stay and I suspect this is being used as a test to see if he can go to Cheltenham. I think he will at least stay this far round here, but as I as I say it is an unknown. The second point is the ground. He was withdrawn due to soft ground when trained by Nicholls so that is a worry. However I can't believe his trainer would run him if she didn't think he would handle it given she already has another in the race and could have run him somewhere else. Also Fontwell had over watered that night and it might not have been as soft as it will be here, but it was certainly on the softer side. That gives me hope he will handle it. 
Strictly speaking on the figures Earth Leader has a bit to find, but he is the progressive horse in the race with the potential to be a Foxhunters horse. If he ends up not staying then so be it, but I am more than happy to pay to find out as I think he is the best horse in the race and 11/4 is too big in my view. I am going to have a small save on Mustmeetalady as well as although I am worried about his win record, he was a big eye-catcher at Taunton and this test will suit him much more than that.
Earth Leader 1.5pts @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor (5/2 with Bet365 if you want/are able to get BOG
Mustmeetalday 0.5pts @ 11/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor

After we lost Hereford today Wincanton becomes the 4th race of the season and it does look a 3 horse race. I notice Kelvingrove has had a wind op over the the summer and that will probably help him see out his races better which he didn't seem to be doing last season. He might find a race at some stage this season, but it is hard to see it being this one with the 3 in front of him in the betting looking to have better form than him.
Mustmeetalady is the one we have seen in a hunter chase already this season after his really good 3rd at Taunton. The step up in trip will certainly help him as he was finishing his race off well over 2m7f that day and as I said after the race he looks a likely candidate for the 4m race on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night. He looks a big player here although he does sometimes struggle to convert his chances which is a slight concern.
Rose Loxton is double handed with Virak and Earth Leader. Virak is the one that has been made favourite at the time of writing and he has had a pretty good time of it since going pointing and hunter chasing. He won well at Ascot and Ludlow last season although he showed he isn't at the top level of hunter chasers when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Hazel Hill at Cheltenham in May. He was then 2nd at Stratford more of which I will mention later. He was a winner on his seasonal comeback earlier this month when beating Southfield Theatre by a length. That's useful form although the time wasn't overly quick. Ground and trip won't be an issue for him.
I have not hidden the fact I hold Earth Leader in high regard. He progressed massively last season and I was really impressed with his wins at Fontwell and Stratford. I thought he looked at least 130 horse to me and he comfortably saw off Buck Dancing at Stratford who now has a rating of 115. Granted that one was a behind Mustmeetalady at Taunton so on a line through him he has a bit to find. Also the horse he beat on his seasonal debut was Big Casino and he was going to finish a well beaten 3rd to Virak at Larkhill. So again on a line through him he has work to do, but his winning time was more impressive in comparison to the rest of the card. Speaking of times we can compare what both horses did at Stratford in May given they ran over the same distance and Earth Leader's winning time was 2.5 seconds quicker than the winners time in Virak's race. Given he is now just 7 he should still be improving and I imagine Rose left plenty to work on given he will have some big targets ahead. Now there are two unknowns about him. First of all we have no idea if he will stay and I suspect this is being used as a test to see if he can go to Cheltenham. I think he will at least stay this far round here, but as I as I say it is an unknown. The second point is the ground. He was withdrawn due to soft ground when trained by Nicholls so that is a worry. However I can't believe his trainer would run him if she didn't think he would handle it given she already has another in the race and could have run him somewhere else. Also Fontwell had over watered that night and it might not have been as soft as it will be here, but it was certainly on the softer side. That gives me hope he will handle it. 
Strictly speaking on the figures Earth Leader has a bit to find, but he is the progressive horse in the race with the potential to be a Foxhunters horse. If he ends up not staying then so be it, but I am more than happy to pay to find out as I think he is the best horse in the race and 11/4 is too big in my view. I am going to have a small save on Mustmeetalady as well as although I am worried about his win record, he was a big eye-catcher at Taunton and this test will suit him much more than that.
Earth Leader 1.5pts @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor (5/2 with Bet365 if you want/are able to get BOG
Mustmeetalday 0.5pts @ 11/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor

After we lost Hereford today Wincanton becomes the 4th race of the season and it does look a 3 horse race. I notice Kelvingrove has had a wind op over the the summer and that will probably help him see out his races better which he didn't seem to be doing last season. He might find a race at some stage this season, but it is hard to see it being this one with the 3 in front of him in the betting looking to have better form than him.
Mustmeetalady is the one we have seen in a hunter chase already this season after his really good 3rd at Taunton. The step up in trip will certainly help him as he was finishing his race off well over 2m7f that day and as I said after the race he looks a likely candidate for the 4m race on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night. He looks a big player here although he does sometimes struggle to convert his chances which is a slight concern.
Rose Loxton is double handed with Virak and Earth Leader. Virak is the one that has been made favourite at the time of writing and he has had a pretty good time of it since going pointing and hunter chasing. He won well at Ascot and Ludlow last season although he showed he isn't at the top level of hunter chasers when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Hazel Hill at Cheltenham in May. He was then 2nd at Stratford more of which I will mention later. He was a winner on his seasonal comeback earlier this month when beating Southfield Theatre by a length. That's useful form although the time wasn't overly quick. Ground and trip won't be an issue for him.
I have not hidden the fact I hold Earth Leader in high regard. He progressed massively last season and I was really impressed with his wins at Fontwell and Stratford. I thought he looked at least 130 horse to me and he comfortably saw off Buck Dancing at Stratford who now has a rating of 115. Granted that one was a behind Mustmeetalady at Taunton so on a line through him he has a bit to find. Also the horse he beat on his seasonal debut was Big Casino and he was going to finish a well beaten 3rd to Virak at Larkhill. So again on a line through him he has work to do, but his winning time was more impressive in comparison to the rest of the card. Speaking of times we can compare what both horses did at Stratford in May given they ran over the same distance and Earth Leader's winning time was 2.5 seconds quicker than the winners time in Virak's race. Given he is now just 7 he should still be improving and I imagine Rose left plenty to work on given he will have some big targets ahead. Now there are two unknowns about him. First of all we have no idea if he will stay and I suspect this is being used as a test to see if he can go to Cheltenham. I think he will at least stay this far round here, but as I as I say it is an unknown. The second point is the ground. He was withdrawn due to soft ground when trained by Nicholls so that is a worry. However I can't believe his trainer would run him if she didn't think he would handle it given she already has another in the race and could have run him somewhere else. Also Fontwell had over watered that night and it might not have been as soft as it will be here, but it was certainly on the softer side. That gives me hope he will handle it. 
Strictly speaking on the figures Earth Leader has a bit to find, but he is the progressive horse in the race with the potential to be a Foxhunters horse. If he ends up not staying then so be it, but I am more than happy to pay to find out as I think he is the best horse in the race and 11/4 is too big in my view. I am going to have a small save on Mustmeetalady as well as although I am worried about his win record, he was a big eye-catcher at Taunton and this test will suit him much more than that.
Earth Leader 1.5pts @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor (5/2 with Bet365 if you want/are able to get BOG
Mustmeetalday 0.5pts @ 11/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor

I have removed all mention of Mighty Stowaway from the above posts now we know he isn't eligible to run in the race just so it makes sense for people who want to catch up with all the posts should they be coming to this late. Also I can sum things up in one new post. It turns out that Mighty Stowaway's win at Punchestown in November 2018 has been deemed to have been in a race that is seen as equivalent to a Class 2 in the UK. Horses that have won a Class 1 or 2 contest in the 15 months prior to 1st January aren't able to run in hunter chases in the UK which means he can't run in those contests over here this season. Given Irish races don't have the same system as we do in the UK it was hard to tell that he wouldn't be allowed to run which is why I thought he was safe and connections clearly thought the same. Ireland don't have rules like that so I guess we will see him at Fairyhouse and or Punchestown later in the season. Also those of you that had backed him will get your money back because he was never eligible to run.
Also today it came to my attention that Stand Up And Fight has been entered in a point in Ireland on Sunday. Given I thought last year's race was a year too soon for him he could be of strong interest this time around and it wouldn't surprise me if he was the leading Irish hope. You can never be certain with horses in this race if they are still fit and healthy until you see them entered up so it is good to see all is fine with him. This point is emphasised by the fact Road To Rome is still high up in the betting despite him highly likely to still be recovering from the injury he suffered in a point last year. I also remember Paint The Clouds was in the betting and it turned out he had been dead for a few months before the news became public. 

Just when you think you have seen it all on a racecourse something else happens to prove that you haven't. I have been watching racing pretty much all my life and never have I seen a jockey have to pull a horse up because he has cramp! Bob And Co had shown his hard pulling tendencies in France and you could see that Maxwell was struggling to keep a hold of him and then when they past the winning post first time around you could tell something was up. He looked almost uncontrollable and you wondered if the saddle had slipped or something, but as it turned out he had to pull him up as he had cramp in his legs and it was safer for him to pull him up. Maxwell said after the race that he needs a strong pace, but that could buzz him up even more. Also given he wants to qualify him for Cheltenham he is likely to have run him in two small field races again so we could easily see a repeat. I guess now he has run once it might have taken the freshness off him and he will be less keen next time, but that couldn't be a given. There is a race at Wincanton a week on Thursday which could be an option as could Wetherby a couple of days later, but there aren't actually that many chances for him to get two runs in although of course his Shantou Flyer did do that last year after finishing 5th in this race. He won at Kelso and Fontwell on his way to finishing 2nd at Cheltenham. He clearly has ability, but even if he qualified for Cheltenham you have to wonder if he would see out 3m2f round there.
Minella Rocco looked beat as they left the back straight and Kashmir Peak went on. It has been suggested that his jockey allowed Kashmir Peak to kick on and she picked up the pieces, but I don't think that was the case. She was niggling the winner along to try and keep up and he couldn't at that stage. In the end he ran out a comfortable winner as Kashmir Peak faded badly after the last, but I don't there was anything special about the ride. The race fell into his lap somewhat and I find the fact he was cut into 12/1 for Cheltenham staggering. He beat a pretty average horse in 2nd and looked like he was going to be 2nd. I can't have him at all for Cheltenham on the back of this as with Bob And Co out of the way it was a race he should have won.
Speaking of Kashmir Peak it is hard to know what he actually achieved here, but he could find a race at the right level as it wasn't a bad effort. Roseyroo never got involved at all.
The next race is at Hereford next Wednesday.

The obvious place to start is with Caid du Berlais who returned with a comfortable success at Buckfastleigh. It was good that there was a bit of depth the form as well as Marcle Ridge came home in 2nd. He won on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night in May and was then beaten by Killaro Boy which I initially thought was disappointing, but given that one was only just beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June it boosted the form. Connections of Marcle Ridge have spoken about aiming him at the Foxhunter so it was good to see Caid du Berlais put him in his place. Caid du Berlais was my ante-post selection for the race last year and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham, but it came less than 2 weeks after he made his seasonal reappearance and he had a rushed preparation. The run was too bad to be true and he showed that in no uncertain terms when turning the big one at Punchestown into a procession. He was winning that race for the 2nd year running and it emphasised he is clearly one of the best hunter chasers around. Two years ago he was 5th in the race and although he didn't quite see out the trip I think he looks a stronger stayer now. One of the good things about him is that he won't mind what the weather does as he handles any ground and as long as his prep goes better than last season I think he is a huge player in the race. Indeed I am again going to put him up as an ante-post bet in the race as I don't see him being a double figure price come the day so at 14/1 I am happy to play.   Irish contender Some Man won a maiden Hunter Chase at Clonmel a couple of weeks ago and I didn't deal with him at the time because I wasn't really thinking him as a possible for Cheltenham, but he is a general 33/1 chance for the race. His trainer was very complementary after the race stating he is the best horse he has ever trained. They picked him up for just £5.5k, which could look a real bargain, from Paul Nicholls. He didn't show a great deal for him, but for his new connections he has won all 3 starts now. His Clonmel win was decent enough although it was a long way from being good enough to win at Cheltenham and it was only over 2m4f. He also still needs to qualify as neither of his point wins were in open company. Clearly though he is very unexposed and he could be open to any amount of improvement.   News last week was that Seeyouatmidnight was coming out of retirement and will run at Musselburgh next weekend and then at Kelso in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. At this stage he wouldn't look an obvious winner, but it will be good to see him back in action.   With Hazel Hill missing a clash with Bob And Co at Warwick on Wednesday we could see him line up at Thorpe Lodge on Sunday where Caryto des Brosses is also entered. There was nothing between the two of them at Cheltenham in May and that really is a mouth watering clash if they both turn up. I have not hidden my love for Caryto des Brosses and I do think he is a possible winning hope at Cheltenham. Also Art Mauresque looks set to go to Chipley Park as he looks to get himself qualified. In Ireland we have their big trial at Naas which looks set to be fascinating as well.   Caid du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred   Catching up with the Irish pointing results via the Racing Post and it seems that Shark could have two runners in the race as Rewritetherules won on Sunday and looks set to be aimed at the race. He caused a big surprise when winning a Down Royal Hunter Chase in May and then won at Tipperary 3 days later. The following month he was beaten off 116 in a handicap at Roscommon. It was a good win on Sunday and he looks progressive albeit I am not sure the field was overly strong. He is only 6 and I just wonder if it would be a year too soon for him, but he is certainly an interesting horse.

Only 4 runners which is a big drop of from the huge field we had for the race last year, but we still have a fascinating contest. I am going to put at the start in case you only look for the tip that for me this is a race to watch rather than have a bet on. 
Bob And Co is the horse Maxwell nominated as his Foxhunter horse on Racing TV a couple of months back so it will be interesting to see how he gets on in his debut in the UK. His highest Racing Post Rating is 138 for his 3rd in a Listed race at Auteuil in September 2018. The British handicapper has given a mark of 150 which seems plenty high enough to me based on what he has done. He doesn't strike as an obvious Foxhunter winner although we will learn more tomorrow. He really needs to be winning this pretty easily though in my view.
Minella Rocco finished 2nd in a Gold Cup 3 years ago, but he hasn't got anywhere near that sort of form since. He pulled up in 4 races on the bounce before finishing 8th at Ascot back in November. In theory this is a class drop although if Bob And Co is a likely Foxhunter winner then it isn't really a drop from that Ascot race last time. He looks firmly on the downgrade and he probably needs the favourite to under perform to win.
Kashmir Peak is a reasonable pointer, but is form isn't anything special especially in the context of this race. He's been off the track for 10 months as well so it looks an especially tough task on his seasonal return.
Roseyroo is a likeable mare who has clearly had her problems having not run since May 2018 and that she has only run 2 other times since April 2015. Those two dates she ran in the mares race at Cheltenham and was beaten a neck in 2015 before unseating 2 years ago when looking as if she was going to be a player. I'd love to see her win a hunter chase this season, but it would be a surprise if it was to be this one.
Bob And Co is the most likely winner, but I can't be backing him at 4/6 given there are question marks over him as there is every single runner in the field. Who knows Minella Rocco might spring back to life, but he has looked firmly on the downgrade. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if Roseyroo was able to finish 2nd, but I certainly don't feel strongly enough to put it up as a bet. So a race to watch with interest going forward, but not one to be risking any of the hard earned.

Only 4 runners which is a big drop of from the huge field we had for the race last year, but we still have a fascinating contest. I am going to put at the start in case you only look for the tip that for me this is a race to watch rather than have a bet on. 
Bob And Co is the horse Maxwell nominated as his Foxhunter horse on Racing TV a couple of months back so it will be interesting to see how he gets on in his debut in the UK. His highest Racing Post Rating is 138 for his 3rd in a Listed race at Auteuil in September 2018. The British handicapper has given a mark of 150 which seems plenty high enough to me based on what he has done. He doesn't strike as an obvious Foxhunter winner although we will learn more tomorrow. He really needs to be winning this pretty easily though in my view.
Minella Rocco finished 2nd in a Gold Cup 3 years ago, but he hasn't got anywhere near that sort of form since. He pulled up in 4 races on the bounce before finishing 8th at Ascot back in November. In theory this is a class drop although if Bob And Co is a likely Foxhunter winner then it isn't really a drop from that Ascot race last time. He looks firmly on the downgrade and he probably needs the favourite to under perform to win.
Kashmir Peak is a reasonable pointer, but is form isn't anything special especially in the context of this race. He's been off the track for 10 months as well so it looks an especially tough task on his seasonal return.
Roseyroo is a likeable mare who has clearly had her problems having not run since May 2018 and that she has only run 2 other times since April 2015. Those two dates she ran in the mares race at Cheltenham and was beaten a neck in 2015 before unseating 2 years ago when looking as if she was going to be a player. I'd love to see her win a hunter chase this season, but it would be a surprise if it was to be this one.
Bob And Co is the most likely winner, but I can't be backing him at 4/6 given there are question marks over him as there is every single runner in the field. Who knows Minella Rocco might spring back to life, but he has looked firmly on the downgrade. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if Roseyroo was able to finish 2nd, but I certainly don't feel strongly enough to put it up as a bet. So a race to watch with interest going forward, but not one to be risking any of the hard earned.

Only 4 runners which is a big drop of from the huge field we had for the race last year, but we still have a fascinating contest. I am going to put at the start in case you only look for the tip that for me this is a race to watch rather than have a bet on. 
Bob And Co is the horse Maxwell nominated as his Foxhunter horse on Racing TV a couple of months back so it will be interesting to see how he gets on in his debut in the UK. His highest Racing Post Rating is 138 for his 3rd in a Listed race at Auteuil in September 2018. The British handicapper has given a mark of 150 which seems plenty high enough to me based on what he has done. He doesn't strike as an obvious Foxhunter winner although we will learn more tomorrow. He really needs to be winning this pretty easily though in my view.
Minella Rocco finished 2nd in a Gold Cup 3 years ago, but he hasn't got anywhere near that sort of form since. He pulled up in 4 races on the bounce before finishing 8th at Ascot back in November. In theory this is a class drop although if Bob And Co is a likely Foxhunter winner then it isn't really a drop from that Ascot race last time. He looks firmly on the downgrade and he probably needs the favourite to under perform to win.
Kashmir Peak is a reasonable pointer, but is form isn't anything special especially in the context of this race. He's been off the track for 10 months as well so it looks an especially tough task on his seasonal return.
Roseyroo is a likeable mare who has clearly had her problems having not run since May 2018 and that she has only run 2 other times since April 2015. Those two dates she ran in the mares race at Cheltenham and was beaten a neck in 2015 before unseating 2 years ago when looking as if she was going to be a player. I'd love to see her win a hunter chase this season, but it would be a surprise if it was to be this one.
Bob And Co is the most likely winner, but I can't be backing him at 4/6 given there are question marks over him as there is every single runner in the field. Who knows Minella Rocco might spring back to life, but he has looked firmly on the downgrade. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if Roseyroo was able to finish 2nd, but I certainly don't feel strongly enough to put it up as a bet. So a race to watch with interest going forward, but not one to be risking any of the hard earned.

The obvious place to start is with Caid du Berlais who returned with a comfortable success at Buckfastleigh. It was good that there was a bit of depth the form as well as Marcle Ridge came home in 2nd. He won on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night in May and was then beaten by Killaro Boy which I initially thought was disappointing, but given that one was only just beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June it boosted the form. Connections of Marcle Ridge have spoken about aiming him at the Foxhunter so it was good to see Caid du Berlais put him in his place. Caid du Berlais was my ante-post selection for the race last year and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham, but it came less than 2 weeks after he made his seasonal reappearance and he had a rushed preparation. The run was too bad to be true and he showed that in no uncertain terms when turning the big one at Punchestown into a procession. He was winning that race for the 2nd year running and it emphasised he is clearly one of the best hunter chasers around. Two years ago he was 5th in the race and although he didn't quite see out the trip I think he looks a stronger stayer now. One of the good things about him is that he won't mind what the weather does as he handles any ground and as long as his prep goes better than last season I think he is a huge player in the race. Indeed I am again going to put him up as an ante-post bet in the race as I don't see him being a double figure price come the day so at 14/1 I am happy to play.   Irish contender Some Man won a maiden Hunter Chase at Clonmel a couple of weeks ago and I didn't deal with him at the time because I wasn't really thinking him as a possible for Cheltenham, but he is a general 33/1 chance for the race. His trainer was very complementary after the race stating he is the best horse he has ever trained. They picked him up for just £5.5k, which could look a real bargain, from Paul Nicholls. He didn't show a great deal for him, but for his new connections he has won all 3 starts now. His Clonmel win was decent enough although it was a long way from being good enough to win at Cheltenham and it was only over 2m4f. He also still needs to qualify as neither of his point wins were in open company. Clearly though he is very unexposed and he could be open to any amount of improvement.   News last week was that Seeyouatmidnight was coming out of retirement and will run at Musselburgh next weekend and then at Kelso in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. At this stage he wouldn't look an obvious winner, but it will be good to see him back in action.   With Hazel Hill missing a clash with Bob And Co at Warwick on Wednesday we could see him line up at Thorpe Lodge on Sunday where Caryto des Brosses is also entered. There was nothing between the two of them at Cheltenham in May and that really is a mouth watering clash if they both turn up. I have not hidden my love for Caryto des Brosses and I do think he is a possible winning hope at Cheltenham. Also Art Mauresque looks set to go to Chipley Park as he looks to get himself qualified. In Ireland we have their big trial at Naas which looks set to be fascinating as well.   Caid du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred   Catching up with the Irish pointing results via the Racing Post and it seems that Shark could have two runners in the race as Rewritetherules won on Sunday and looks set to be aimed at the race. He caused a big surprise when winning a Down Royal Hunter Chase in May and then won at Tipperary 3 days later. The following month he was beaten off 116 in a handicap at Roscommon. It was a good win on Sunday and he looks progressive albeit I am not sure the field was overly strong. He is only 6 and I just wonder if it would be a year too soon for him, but he is certainly an interesting horse.

The obvious place to start is with Caid du Berlais who returned with a comfortable success at Buckfastleigh. It was good that there was a bit of depth the form as well as Marcle Ridge came home in 2nd. He won on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night in May and was then beaten by Killaro Boy which I initially thought was disappointing, but given that one was only just beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June it boosted the form. Connections of Marcle Ridge have spoken about aiming him at the Foxhunter so it was good to see Caid du Berlais put him in his place. Caid du Berlais was my ante-post selection for the race last year and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham, but it came less than 2 weeks after he made his seasonal reappearance and he had a rushed preparation. The run was too bad to be true and he showed that in no uncertain terms when turning the big one at Punchestown into a procession. He was winning that race for the 2nd year running and it emphasised he is clearly one of the best hunter chasers around. Two years ago he was 5th in the race and although he didn't quite see out the trip I think he looks a stronger stayer now. One of the good things about him is that he won't mind what the weather does as he handles any ground and as long as his prep goes better than last season I think he is a huge player in the race. Indeed I am again going to put him up as an ante-post bet in the race as I don't see him being a double figure price come the day so at 14/1 I am happy to play.   Irish contender Some Man won a maiden Hunter Chase at Clonmel a couple of weeks ago and I didn't deal with him at the time because I wasn't really thinking him as a possible for Cheltenham, but he is a general 33/1 chance for the race. His trainer was very complementary after the race stating he is the best horse he has ever trained. They picked him up for just £5.5k, which could look a real bargain, from Paul Nicholls. He didn't show a great deal for him, but for his new connections he has won all 3 starts now. His Clonmel win was decent enough although it was a long way from being good enough to win at Cheltenham and it was only over 2m4f. He also still needs to qualify as neither of his point wins were in open company. Clearly though he is very unexposed and he could be open to any amount of improvement.   News last week was that Seeyouatmidnight was coming out of retirement and will run at Musselburgh next weekend and then at Kelso in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. At this stage he wouldn't look an obvious winner, but it will be good to see him back in action.   With Hazel Hill missing a clash with Bob And Co at Warwick on Wednesday we could see him line up at Thorpe Lodge on Sunday where Caryto des Brosses is also entered. There was nothing between the two of them at Cheltenham in May and that really is a mouth watering clash if they both turn up. I have not hidden my love for Caryto des Brosses and I do think he is a possible winning hope at Cheltenham. Also Art Mauresque looks set to go to Chipley Park as he looks to get himself qualified. In Ireland we have their big trial at Naas which looks set to be fascinating as well.   Caid du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred   Catching up with the Irish pointing results via the Racing Post and it seems that Shark could have two runners in the race as Rewritetherules won on Sunday and looks set to be aimed at the race. He caused a big surprise when winning a Down Royal Hunter Chase in May and then won at Tipperary 3 days later. The following month he was beaten off 116 in a handicap at Roscommon. It was a good win on Sunday and he looks progressive albeit I am not sure the field was overly strong. He is only 6 and I just wonder if it would be a year too soon for him, but he is certainly an interesting horse.

The obvious place to start is with Caid du Berlais who returned with a comfortable success at Buckfastleigh. It was good that there was a bit of depth the form as well as Marcle Ridge came home in 2nd. He won on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night in May and was then beaten by Killaro Boy which I initially thought was disappointing, but given that one was only just beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June it boosted the form. Connections of Marcle Ridge have spoken about aiming him at the Foxhunter so it was good to see Caid du Berlais put him in his place. Caid du Berlais was my ante-post selection for the race last year and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham, but it came less than 2 weeks after he made his seasonal reappearance and he had a rushed preparation. The run was too bad to be true and he showed that in no uncertain terms when turning the big one at Punchestown into a procession. He was winning that race for the 2nd year running and it emphasised he is clearly one of the best hunter chasers around. Two years ago he was 5th in the race and although he didn't quite see out the trip I think he looks a stronger stayer now. One of the good things about him is that he won't mind what the weather does as he handles any ground and as long as his prep goes better than last season I think he is a huge player in the race. Indeed I am again going to put him up as an ante-post bet in the race as I don't see him being a double figure price come the day so at 14/1 I am happy to play.   Irish contender Some Man won a maiden Hunter Chase at Clonmel a couple of weeks ago and I didn't deal with him at the time because I wasn't really thinking him as a possible for Cheltenham, but he is a general 33/1 chance for the race. His trainer was very complementary after the race stating he is the best horse he has ever trained. They picked him up for just £5.5k, which could look a real bargain, from Paul Nicholls. He didn't show a great deal for him, but for his new connections he has won all 3 starts now. His Clonmel win was decent enough although it was a long way from being good enough to win at Cheltenham and it was only over 2m4f. He also still needs to qualify as neither of his point wins were in open company. Clearly though he is very unexposed and he could be open to any amount of improvement.   News last week was that Seeyouatmidnight was coming out of retirement and will run at Musselburgh next weekend and then at Kelso in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. At this stage he wouldn't look an obvious winner, but it will be good to see him back in action.   With Hazel Hill missing a clash with Bob And Co at Warwick on Wednesday we could see him line up at Thorpe Lodge on Sunday where Caryto des Brosses is also entered. There was nothing between the two of them at Cheltenham in May and that really is a mouth watering clash if they both turn up. I have not hidden my love for Caryto des Brosses and I do think he is a possible winning hope at Cheltenham. Also Art Mauresque looks set to go to Chipley Park as he looks to get himself qualified. In Ireland we have their big trial at Naas which looks set to be fascinating as well.   Caid du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred   Catching up with the Irish pointing results via the Racing Post and it seems that Shark could have two runners in the race as Rewritetherules won on Sunday and looks set to be aimed at the race. He caused a big surprise when winning a Down Royal Hunter Chase in May and then won at Tipperary 3 days later. The following month he was beaten off 116 in a handicap at Roscommon. It was a good win on Sunday and he looks progressive albeit I am not sure the field was overly strong. He is only 6 and I just wonder if it would be a year too soon for him, but he is certainly an interesting horse.

Once the 2 non-runners came out I was pretty confident we were going to get something back as I really didn't fancy the two outsiders, but we always get the odd race per season where we get something weird happening and we certainly got that. 
First thing to say is they went no pace at all which is backed up by the fact the winning time was a minute over standard and that certainly helped the winner. If they had gone a quicker pace I struggle to believe he would have been in contention as late into the race as he was as I can't believe he is in the same league as his rivals. He was beaten in a restricted last time so shouldn't really be winning a hunter chase like this even allowing for the luck he got. Chances are I will be more than happy to take him on next time out.
As for the 3 who failed to finish it is hard to say exactly what would have happened if they had of stayed on their feet. My feeling is the favourite would have won and he was certainly looking the winner when he came down at 2 out. The problem now is that he will need to run in another two races to get qualified for Cheltenham which isn't exactly ideal for connections. Dieu Vivant had been pretty weak in the betting during the day, but he came in for money on track and was backed from 12/1 into 7/1. He travelled into the race well and wasn't done with at all when Arcala fell right in front of him. He was obviously very unfortunate, but could find an opening this season. Ballynagour was amazingly fresh considering he is 14. He clearly wanted to go quicker than they were going, but Alex gave him a very good ride up until he came down at 4 out. He was just started to get competitive and I wouldn't rule him out from winning one of these at some point.
The next race is at Warwick on Wednesday and sadly there are only 6 entries although Bob And Co and Hazel Hill have both been entered along with Minella Rocco so it could be a really interesting race despite the small field.

As you know I was lucky enough to land the Exacta courtesy of simply perming all 5 runners and hoping for the best, but what a shocking return it was! I basically got a 3/1 return on my perm, but I mustn't grumble - I had a little nibble on both outsiders in the race.

Once the 2 non-runners came out I was pretty confident we were going to get something back as I really didn't fancy the two outsiders, but we always get the odd race per season where we get something weird happening and we certainly got that. 
First thing to say is they went no pace at all which is backed up by the fact the winning time was a minute over standard and that certainly helped the winner. If they had gone a quicker pace I struggle to believe he would have been in contention as late into the race as he was as I can't believe he is in the same league as his rivals. He was beaten in a restricted last time so shouldn't really be winning a hunter chase like this even allowing for the luck he got. Chances are I will be more than happy to take him on next time out.
As for the 3 who failed to finish it is hard to say exactly what would have happened if they had of stayed on their feet. My feeling is the favourite would have won and he was certainly looking the winner when he came down at 2 out. The problem now is that he will need to run in another two races to get qualified for Cheltenham which isn't exactly ideal for connections. Dieu Vivant had been pretty weak in the betting during the day, but he came in for money on track and was backed from 12/1 into 7/1. He travelled into the race well and wasn't done with at all when Arcala fell right in front of him. He was obviously very unfortunate, but could find an opening this season. Ballynagour was amazingly fresh considering he is 14. He clearly wanted to go quicker than they were going, but Alex gave him a very good ride up until he came down at 4 out. He was just started to get competitive and I wouldn't rule him out from winning one of these at some point.
The next race is at Warwick on Wednesday and sadly there are only 6 entries although Bob And Co and Hazel Hill have both been entered along with Minella Rocco so it could be a really interesting race despite the small field.

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.   Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.   3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.   Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.   7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.   The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.   I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.   Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.   Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.   3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.   Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.   7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.   The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.   I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.   Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.   Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.   3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.   Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.   7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.   The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.   I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.   Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c