Hunter Chase - 3.55 Wincanton

[Darran]

After we lost Hereford today Wincanton becomes the 4th race of the season and it does look a 3 horse race. I notice Kelvingrove has had a wind op over the the summer and that will probably help him see out his races better which he didn't seem to be doing last season. He might find a race at some stage this season, but it is hard to see it being this one with the 3 in front of him in the betting looking to have better form than him.

Mustmeetalady is the one we have seen in a hunter chase already this season after his really good 3rd at Taunton. The step up in trip will certainly help him as he was finishing his race off well over 2m7f that day and as I said after the race he looks a likely candidate for the 4m race on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night. He looks a big player here although he does sometimes struggle to convert his chances which is a slight concern.

Rose Loxton is double handed with Virak and Earth Leader. Virak is the one that has been made favourite at the time of writing and he has had a pretty good time of it since going pointing and hunter chasing. He won well at Ascot and Ludlow last season although he showed he isn't at the top level of hunter chasers when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Hazel Hill at Cheltenham in May. He was then 2nd at Stratford more of which I will mention later. He was a winner on his seasonal comeback earlier this month when beating Southfield Theatre by a length. That's useful form although the time wasn't overly quick. Ground and trip won't be an issue for him.

I have not hidden the fact I hold Earth Leader in high regard. He progressed massively last season and I was really impressed with his wins at Fontwell and Stratford. I thought he looked at least 130 horse to me and he comfortably saw off Buck Dancing at Stratford who now has a rating of 115. Granted that one was a behind Mustmeetalady at Taunton so on a line through him he has a bit to find. Also the horse he beat on his seasonal debut was Big Casino and he was going to finish a well beaten 3rd to Virak at Larkhill. So again on a line through him he has work to do, but his winning time was more impressive in comparison to the rest of the card. Speaking of times we can compare what both horses did at Stratford in May given they ran over the same distance and Earth Leader's winning time was 2.5 seconds quicker than the winners time in Virak's race. Given he is now just 7 he should still be improving and I imagine Rose left plenty to work on given he will have some big targets ahead. Now there are two unknowns about him. First of all we have no idea if he will stay and I suspect this is being used as a test to see if he can go to Cheltenham. I think he will at least stay this far round here, but as I as I say it is an unknown. The second point is the ground. He was withdrawn due to soft ground when trained by Nicholls so that is a worry. However I can't believe his trainer would run him if she didn't think he would handle it given she already has another in the race and could have run him somewhere else. Also Fontwell had over watered that night and it might not have been as soft as it will be here, but it was certainly on the softer side. That gives me hope he will handle it. 

Strictly speaking on the figures Earth Leader has a bit to find, but he is the progressive horse in the race with the potential to be a Foxhunters horse. If he ends up not staying then so be it, but I am more than happy to pay to find out as I think he is the best horse in the race and 11/4 is too big in my view. I am going to have a small save on Mustmeetalady as well as although I am worried about his win record, he was a big eye-catcher at Taunton and this test will suit him much more than that.

Earth Leader 1.5pts @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor (5/2 with Bet365 if you want/are able to get BOG

Mustmeetalday 0.5pts @ 11/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor

[yossa6133]

Leaning towards Virak as he's tough as old boots and gets on well with the jockey. Combination of trip and ground a slight worry for Earth Leader and the jockey may be a negative at well? I don't know him but most likely a step down from the usual guy.

[Darran]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Leaning towards Virak as he's tough as old boots and gets on well with the jockey. Combination of trip and ground a slight worry for Earth Leader and the jockey may be a negative at well? I don't know him but most likely a step down from the usual guy.

Jockey is a huge plus especially given he is 7lbs. Carver can't ride him anymore as he's turned pro. Today is a test to see if Earth Leader can go to Cheltenham in my view and if he stays he wins. I think he will stay but it is obviously an unknown as things stand.

[Darran]

So we found out that Earth Leader doesn't stay more than 3m. Granted he was keen in the early stages and that didn't help him stay, but he looks like 2m6f is his ideal trip. He clearly handled the ground well enough because until his stamina ran out he travelled really well and jumped superbly. I think he is a top class horse and although Cheltenham talk is no more you would imagine that Aintree will be on the agenda. One slight doubt would be if his stamina might run out late on as although it is over 2m6f on a flat track it can still be a bit of a test.There is a decent hunter chase at Leicester over 2m6f as well in a month's time which would surely make plenty of appeal also.

In the end Virak didn't really have anything to beat with Earth Leader not staying and Mustmeetalady running way below par. It was clearly still a good effort though and although he is a bit below top class at this level he will surely be placed to win more races.

I did mention in the preview that Mustmeetalady isn't always the most reliable and he didn't seem to enjoy things at all today. He is clearly better than that, but you wouldn't necessarily want to take a shortish price about him.

We have a double header on Saturday with races at Musselburgh and Wetherby.