Darran

This year sees just two horses from Europe head down for the race that stops a nation although there are plenty who started their careers over here. Due to that I don't think the race is as strong as it has been in recent years, but what we might see is one of the best horses to ever win the race with Incentivise a short price favourite to land the Cup. Here are my thoughts on every runner in race and just to note that Delphi and Future Score need to be cleared by the vet before 7.30am Australian time.   Twilight Payment - It is very hard to win a Melbourne Cup from the front especially when you set a really strong gallop, but Twilight Payment did just that last year. No doubt he will try and do the same thing again and you have to say that he is in good form again as he won the Irish St Leger Trial in August and was then 2nd in the race itself a month later. The problem is he now has 12 more lbs to carry and no horse his age has ever won the Melbourne Cup. Given the depth to this isn't as strong as it usually is though he has a fair chance of hitting the frame again.   Incentivise - Started his career just over a year ago finishing 9th at Ipswich and then had a break until March when he finished 6th and then a well beaten 8th at Toowoomba. I think it's fair to say no one saw him as a future Melbourne Cup winner at that stage. He has since won 9 races on the bounce as he has risen through the grades in Queensland and Melbourne. It is 3 Grade 1's on the bounce as well after impressive wins in the Makybe Diva, the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup. It really was a devastating performance at Caulfield last time and he never looked in a moments danger. I have seen it suggested that he isn't bred to stay the trip and that he is bred to stay it so who knows what to believe on that front. He certainly wasn't stopping over 1m4f at Caulfield and although this is likely to be a strongly run 2m he looks like he might well stay. The fact this isn't a strong Melbourne Cup depth wise will help him as well and I certainly think he would have won the Cox Plate last week. The fact his trainer decided to wait for this suggests he thinks he will stay as well. He is set to start the shortest price favourite since Phar Lap in 1930, but he deserves to be the price he is on form. He was only given a 4lb penalty for winning at Caulfield and I think that was generous. It is hard to see how those who finished behind him at Caulfield can reverse the form and he will ultimately be very hard to beat.   Spanish Mission - The only UK trained runner in the race and the only other horse to be in single figures in the betting. There certainly isn't any question marks about his stamina having won the Yorkshire Cup in May before finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup. After that he pushed Stradivarius close in the Lonsdale Cup and he clearly has the class to run very well in this. He has a great chance of hitting the frame I think, but he will need a strong pace so it turns into more of a staying contest as for me that will be his only chance of beating the favourite.   Verry Elleegant - Last year's Caulfield Cup winner and the horse who has enjoyed some great battles with Addeybb in the last couple of years. She was disappointing when only 4th to Incentivise in the Turnbull, but she bounced back to finish 3rd in the Cox Plate last week. She had to come from a long way back that day and did it round the outside compared to the front two who were on the inside. I think you could easily argue that she was the best horse in the race and that 1m2f at Moonee Valley probably wouldn't see her at her best. She was 7th in this last year, but she was finishing to great effect having been 19th 4f out and 16th 2f out. She doesn't have a great draw in 19, but you would hope that James McDonald would be able to sit closer to the pace this time around. People think she needs soft ground to be at her best, but the track was a Good 3 last year as it is likely to be this year so that doesn't worry me at all. I'm not sure she will reverse form with Incentivise, but she is better than she showed that day and I think she has a great chance of hitting the frame.    Explosive Jack - Won 3 derbies earlier in the year so stamina shouldn't be an issue and he also ran OK in the Turnbull, but he was awful in the Caulfield Cup last time so it is hard to give him much of a chance here.   The Chosen One - Was a very good 4th in this last year after finishing 3rd in the Caulfield Cup, but this year he was only 14th at Caulfield. Damian Lane felt that wasn't his true running though and he does seem to do better on a better surface. He was a good 2nd to Delphi in the Herbert Power the time before and it could be he didn't handle the 7 day back up. The problem I have though is he didn't quite see it out last year so I find it hard to see him improving on that run this time around.   Delphi - I was very impressed with his Herbert Power win, but he was very average in the Caulfield Cup a week later. He had the same run as Incentivise as well so there was no real excuse apart from he didn't handle the 7 day back up. I fancied him at Caulfield, but can't really have him here.   Ocean Billy - Landed the Auckland Cup in March and ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when running on into 9th. He probably isn't good enough to win, but we know he stays the trip and he gets the ground enjoys here which he didn't at Caulfield. An unlikely winner, but if he finished in the top 6 it wouldn't be the biggest surprise.   Selino - Won the Sydney Cup earlier in the year and ran OK in the Bert Cummings when 4th behind Grand Promenade. He wasn't so good in the Caulfield Cup last time though and he's hard to fancy.   Johnny Get Angry - Won the Derby here a year ago, but has basically been hopeless since. Apparently did work well with all the gear he had been running in after being well beaten in the Geelong Cup, but even so its hard to make a case for him.   Knights Order - Impressively won the Brisbane Cup earlier this year and likely to be up with the pace, but he's been pretty rubbish since was easily beaten by Great House on Saturday.   Persan - Was a very good 5th in this on the back of a tough prep so reason to think he might be capable of better this time around now he has been aimed at the race. The problem is he had every chance in the Caulfield Cup last time and although he was 3rd you would be hard pushed to think he could reverse the form with the winner. He does enjoy Flemington though so can see another good performance.   Carif - Would be a very surprising winner although does stay the trip.   Master Of Wine - 3rd in the Bart Cummings stands out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his form and he wouldn't be for me.   Pondus - 2nd in the Curragh Cup on his last start in Ireland before moving to Australia permanently having had a couple of starts last year when still with Joseph O'Brien. Ran a really solid race 1st up in the Bart Cummings when 5th, but I was a bit disappointed with him in the Moonee Valley Cup last time albeit was a messy contest. This race might suit him better though and could hit the frame.   Grand Promenade - Landed the Bart Cummings last time ahead of a few of these which saw him gain entry for this. He has a very good record at this track and does have a similar profile to his stablemate Persan. The question mark though is if he will be good enough as he has never been above G3 company yet and he is usually a front runner which could be tricky from his stall. He does have the right man on top though in Kerrin McEvoy so a bold showing wouldn't surprise although I would be a bit surprised if he was good enough to win.   Miami Bound - Hard to make any case for her.   Port Guillaume - An example of an European who has seemingly gone backwards since moving to Australia. Was lame after the Caulfield Cup so at least had some sort of excuse for the poor effort, but he hasn't done a great deal to think he will suddenly win this.   She's Ideal - Didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last time when 7th as she was probably racing in the worst of the ground. Did have a good win a over 10f 3 starts back in a G3 at Randwick and was 4th in the Sydney Cup when staying on well after missing the start. I can see her running a decent enough race, but I struggle to see her being good enough.   Future Score - Was purchased from the very shrewd Horse Watchers after winning at Pontefract for them back in 2018 to run in this contest. Although he didn't make to this race before this year he was done pretty well over in Australia and he looks like he has been crying out for 2m. The problem is he doesn't look as good as he was and has been no more than average in his starts so far this prep. I'd love to see him run well as I've followed him closely since his move to Australia, but he just hasn't been running well enough to make me want to back him even at a huge price.   Tralee Rose - Has been in good form so far this prep and was a good winner of the Geelong Cup last time after finishing 2nd to Grand Promenade in the Bart Cummings. Her only try over 2m was in the Adelaide Cup and she was 4th at odds on, but there is every chance she had enough for that prep and needed to spelled.  The Geelong Cup wasn't a strong race this year, but she only has 8-0 to carry, has a very good record at Flemington and looks to be peaking at the right time.   Floating Artist - Got up to a mark of 105 in the UK when with Richard Hannon, but I do think he has improved since moving to Australia and won his first 3 races in the country. He probably really ought to be unbeaten as he hasn't been given the best of rides the last twice especially in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time where he just failed to get up having got no sort of run. Usually that race doesn't stack up in this, but in a weaker than usual year he could well run well with no weight at all on his back. There is a slight query about the trip, but if he has improved from his UK form, which I think he has, then that might not be a problem.   Great House - Has been very busy since coming to Australia, but has carried on improving and continues to run well. He was a good 5th in the Caulfield Cup and then was well on top at the line on Saturday in the Hotham, despite the small winning margin. That was not a strong race at all and although the double has been done before and Prince Of Arran was placed after winning the contest in 2018, its never an ideal prep. I think connections only ran on Saturday to make sure they got in this and ideally they would have skipped it. Even so he looks like the trip will be ideal and he has no weight so wouldn't be a shock winner.   Sir Lucan - Northern Hemisphere 3yos have a good recent record in this contest and although he wouldn't appear to be as good as those two winners he doesn't have to carry as much weight as they did. He was awful in the St Leger last time, but the ground was pretty bad that day and every chance he didn't enjoy that. The rest of his form certainly gives him a chance off a weight like this.   Verdict - I have it down to 9 horses who I think are capable of running into the first 4, Twilight Payment, Incentivise, Spanish Mission, Verry Elleegant, Pondus, Tralee Rose, Floating Artist, Great House and Sir Lucan. As for the winner, quite simply if Incentivise sees out the trip then I don't see anything beating him and he has to be the main selection. I'm very surprised that Verry Elleegant seems to have been overlooked by everyone and no one seems to fancy her, but she ran a huge race last year and in the weaker renewal I think she can hit the frame. Her trainer has come out and said it is a myth she needs a wet track and I agree with him. Floating Artist could easily be coming into this looking for a 6th consecutive win and I'm pretty certain he has improved since going to Australia. He has no weight and looks a decent chance. Tralee Rose just misses out as I am going to make Sir Lucan the 4th pick. The record of 3yos from the UK and Ireland has been strong and as I mention in the preview he's not as good as the two winners, but his weight reflects that and connections have been very happy with him since he arrived in Australia.   1st Incentivise @ 2/1 with William Hill and Betfred 2nd Verry Ellegant e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (5 places) or 14/1 with Paddy Power for 6 places 3rd Floating Artist e/w @ 12/1 with Boylesports (6 places) and same price with bookies who are 5 places 4th Sir Lucan e/w @ 20/1 with Betfred (5 places) or 16/1 with Paddy Power for 6 places   NB If placing your bet with Bet365 they use Australian place terms so they are only the first 3. As per usual they do have a UK book to 4 places and it is well hidden. If you go to International on the horse racing page and then click on Tuesday the UK place terms market is there.

Sadly beneficio only beat one home and didn’t show the usual her fight in the finish but the jockey reported she didn’t let herself down on the quick ground so at least there was a reason behind the effort. She is certainly better than she was able to show. Not sure she would have beaten the front two anyway who look very useful especially the winner.

Sadly beneficio only beat one home and didn’t show the usual her fight in the finish but the jockey reported she didn’t let herself down on the quick ground so at least there was a reason behind the effort. She is certainly better than she was able to show. Not sure she would have beaten the front two anyway who look very useful especially the winner.

Sadly beneficio only beat one home and didn’t show the usual her fight in the finish but the jockey reported she didn’t let herself down on the quick ground so at least there was a reason behind the effort. She is certainly better than she was able to show. Not sure she would have beaten the front two anyway who look very useful especially the winner.

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.   Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.   Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.   Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.   Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front.    Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.   Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.   Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.   Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.   Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.   Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front.    Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.   Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.   Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.   Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.   Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.   Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front.    Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.   Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.   Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.   Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.   Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.   Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front.    Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.   Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.   Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.   Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.   Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.   Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front.    Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.   Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

No time for any write ups but I have bets in 4 races at Rosehill and day 1 of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington.
Rosehill R6 - Masked Crusader, Gytrash R7 - I'm Thunderstruck, Ellsberg, Maximal   Flemington R2 - Great House R6 - Forget You

No time for any write ups but I have bets in 4 races at Rosehill and day 1 of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington.
Rosehill R6 - Masked Crusader, Gytrash R7 - I'm Thunderstruck, Ellsberg, Maximal   Flemington R2 - Great House R6 - Forget You

No time for any write ups but I have bets in 4 races at Rosehill and day 1 of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington.
Rosehill R6 - Masked Crusader, Gytrash R7 - I'm Thunderstruck, Ellsberg, Maximal   Flemington R2 - Great House R6 - Forget You

No time for any write ups but I have bets in 4 races at Rosehill and day 1 of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington.
Rosehill R6 - Masked Crusader, Gytrash R7 - I'm Thunderstruck, Ellsberg, Maximal   Flemington R2 - Great House R6 - Forget You

No time for any write ups but I have bets in 4 races at Rosehill and day 1 of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington.
Rosehill R6 - Masked Crusader, Gytrash R7 - I'm Thunderstruck, Ellsberg, Maximal   Flemington R2 - Great House R6 - Forget You

No time for any write ups but I have bets in 4 races at Rosehill and day 1 of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington.
Rosehill R6 - Masked Crusader, Gytrash R7 - I'm Thunderstruck, Ellsberg, Maximal   Flemington R2 - Great House R6 - Forget You

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

Had to survive a protest but State Of Rest lands the Cox Plate for Ireland.

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

Had to survive a protest but State Of Rest lands the Cox Plate for Ireland.

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com
Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.
Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.
Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.
Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.
Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.
Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).
State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.
Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.
Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 
Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.
Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365
State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill