[Fishy's fancies]

Re: Fishy's fancies One more for me on super sunday. Aston Villa (-0.5) cards handicap- 21/20 Bet365- (4/10) WIN

[Fishy's fancies]

Re: Fishy's fancies QPR (-1 corner) to beat Aston Villa- 23/20 William Hill- (5/10) WIN QPR were superb against Wolves and their midfield trio of Barton, Taarabt and Wright-Phillips look to have blended in straight away and give the new boys that experience they need in the top flight. Wright-Phillips and Faurlin will look to bust down the wings and get to the bylines which should get them some corners. Villa without Heskey and Bent which I see as big blows, might be lacking some energy going forward.

[Fishy's fancies]

Re: Fishy's fancies First few for the weekend then, all involving the domestic football. Derby to beat Millwall- 19/10 Bet365- (3/10) WIN Odds too high on Clough's men, despite the absence of Fielding, the morale is the dressing room should be high after winning the derby last week with 10 men. Millwall haven't scored in their last 4 in all competitions, backing the Rams here. Charlton vs Chesterfield- BTTS- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) WIN Both teams very good going forward and although Charlton are favourites to carry on their good early form, I'd fancy Chesterfield to to create some chances and score, likewise Charlton come full time. Preston (-1) to beat Tranmere- 7/4 Bet365- (3/10)LOSS Preston having a fan's day, with near enough a capacity crowd ahead of this local clash. Phil Brown's men are in good form, winning the last 5 in the league, and ran Southampton close in midweek in the cup. Tranmere have some injury worries, and Preston to win this comfortably for me. Sheffield United to beat Wycombe- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (3/10) LOSS Danny Wilson's men unbeaten in 4 away matches this season and have no new concerns in their squad from their comfortable 3-0 win over Colchester last week. Wycombe have struggled big time this season, and a meeting with one of the strongest sides in the league, don't see them getting anything today. Rotherham to beat Southend- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (3/10) LOSS Rotherham very strong at home in the league, with their record of W3 D1 L0 and only one defeat in the league all season. Southend have some key midfielders missing, and struggled against the better sides when playing away from home. Slight loss of -0.80 yesterday with only 2/5 coming through. Derby were comfortable winners, and the BTTS came through as expected. Shame about Preston as that could have made the day but they couldn't score a 3rd goal when down to 10 men. Rotherham were smashed by Southend and Sheffield United also lost. Hope to improve on today's results.

[Fishy's fancies]

Some of the regulars in the tennis threads will know I'm a keen tennis fan and punter, but due to my uni term resuming, and going into my second year, I actually have to do some work this year as it counts, meaning I will have less time to do my write ups in the main threads. That's the main reasoning for this glory hunter's thread, as it won't take up as much of my time, and will hopefully mean I get more time to read what I'm supposed to and really knuckle down this year. As well as the tennis interest, I'm a huge Chelsea fan so on the weekends I will look to the football as well to see if anything takes my fancy. No shame in me admitting that in my early schoolboy betting days, lost a fair bit of money on the football as it was the thrill more than anything being the reason for me placing those bets. But I believe I'm a far more mature sportsfan and punter now, as seen through my contributions in the other sports threads and have made a decent profit this year already. However this thread will just allow me to keep a record of my profit/losses in a clear and easy way, and I'll hope that I can contribute quite regularly and enjoy some profit to pay for some nights out during term time. Let's see how this thread goes then. :ok

[England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September Very rarely do I get involved in the football but am taking a few in the Bolton match. Bolton to beat Norwich- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Bolton -1 to beat Norwich- 21/10 Bet365- (4/10) Kevin Davies First Goalscorer- 9/2 Bet365- (3/10 E/W, 1/3 unlimited goalscorer) Do the write up really quickly. Really like Bolton after seeing the two starting lineups. It's a very strong Bolton outfit with Petrov, Tuncay, Klasnic and Davies starting, backed up with some solid defensive options in Cahill, Knight and Boyata. Think they are being very underrated given the hammering they took to Man Utd and the fact they leaked 3 to Man City but against City they still managed 2 goals themselves which is a pretty decent showing. The Man Utd game you can write off as they are, perhaps with the exception of city, miles ahead of everyone else this season, as much as i hate to admit it being a chelsea fan. They will fancy restoring some wins and confidence within the camp today again a Norwich side who I do see struggling this season. Their defense really doesn't fill me with any confidence for Lambert's team, and ith the craft of Tuncay and Petrov, they could be in for a long afternoon. Bolton just look better in every area to me, more match winners amongst their team and a more solid look at the back so I'll back them to win this with also a smaller stake on the handicap. Also backing their skipper to notch a goal today. Like I said the Norwich defence doesn't look outstanding so I'd fancy Bolton to get a fair few chances today. And as we know Davies is always likely to cause problems, especially to vulnerable defences and pinch a goal. Add to that the threat from set pieces and he could easily have a goal to his name come 4:50.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Was busy yesterday but 4 for me today in these first couple of rounds which have been a shocker for me. Jean-Rene Lisnard vs Florian Mayer- Mayer -7.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) With a few others on this one. Already been mentioned that Lisnard has played some grueling matches to qualify and he isn't the youngest of guys so I can't see him being fresh out of the traps today. When he has played some good players this year, he really hasn't been able to do much, hammered by Tomic and Troicki most notably. Mayer hasn't come into this week with any form but the win over Mannarino should see some confidence restored in the German, and he should be able to record a comfortable win here to book his place in round 3. Rafael Nadal vs Nicolas Mahut- Mahut +8.5 handicap- Evens Coral- (4/10) I'm still expecting Rafa to make at least the semis this year but I don't seem him really getting into his stride until the next round. Once he conquers Mahut, he should be in good enough shape to really start turning it on and winning his matches very comfortably but not sure that'll happen today. He has traditionally had problems with the big servers; Isner at the French Open, Lacko and Karlovic at the start of the year and Dodig only a couple of weeks ago. Not sure why he does struggle this much but fact is he isn't as comfortable against them. Mahut will bomb down his serve on a consistent basis, and come to the net a fair bit, something which given Rafa's form, won't be ideal for the Spaniard as his passing shots weren't outstanding in the first round against Golubev. Mahut did well to come down from 2 sets down and get through his round one match, and he should be competitive and keep it reasonably tight here I'd fancy. He's beaten Rafa incredibly thus far in their only match so he won't be scared, and he can go out and enjoy himself and keep it respectable. Andy Murray vs Robin Haase- Murray -7.5 handcap- Evens Coral- (4/10) Reckon there could be one tight set but I actually think Murray will win this a bit to spare. Haase isn't the best defensively so he will have to go out all attack to stand any chance with Andy, but that will play into Murray's hands. Those sort of battles he loves and can see him frustrating the hell out of Haase and eventually not sure Haase will fancy it too much. He has struggled when playing the top 10 players in the past year or so, Fish has beaten him comfortably in the past 2 grand slams, whilst Soderling easily beat him in Indian Wells, and Djokovic won well at the back end of last season. Murray looked better and better as the match went on against Devvarman, and I expect him to really enjoy today and show why he is tipped for this week. John Isner vs Robby Ginepri- Ginepri +4.5 handicap- 17/10 Coral- (3/10) This could go on for a while and whilst Isner will probably win, he could well do it in a tie break on the fifth. Ginepri although being plagued with injuries has a history with the slam. Made the semis back in 2005, where he took Agassi to 5 in the semis and he will like nothing better to roll back the years against his fellow American. He beat big John in their last match in 2009, and in the other meeting Isner was a narrow winner. Isner isn't the kind of guy who usually demolishes his opponents and a lengthy match with some tight sets, we could see a real good contest between the two and hopefully Ginepri can be competitive to see the handicap through.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Wouldn't bet on anything that I've gone for mate, way to go is against me and you'll be amongst the profit. I've said I reckon it'll be tight, 6-0 6-1 that means.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Thanks for that Czech, still backing her though. What a match the fans have on grandstand with Soderling not playing. 2 qualifiers, one of which is a lucky loser and the other without a proper ranking. Money well spent those fans will think :lol

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Day 3 then and have 5 on my books. Some less known players playing today so will be interesting viewing. Hoping for a more profitable day than the previous couple of days that's for sure. Julien Benneteau vs Nicolas Almagro- Almagro -4.5 game handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Was always going to take the overs in this one until I saw the handicap which I expected to be a couple of games higher in truth. In my eyes it's a masive overreaction towards Benneteau after his good run last week, but aside from that, he hasn't done too much else on the hard courts this season. Lost to some pretty average opponents and before last week, failed to get past the second round in any tournament. Let's not forget he played an incredible 9 matches last week after he had to qualify so although he would have had more court time than Almagro, the Spaniard is certainly going to be the fresher of the two. Almagro has looked decent in the past couple of weeks, only losing to Tsonga and Berdych so he should be accustomed to the hard surface by now. His serve has particularly impressed me in the past couple of months or so and he should have enough to see Benneteau off in my opinion and the handicap is a low one for the Spaniard to cover. Andy Roddick vs Michael Russell- Roddick -7.5 game handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Andy isn't the player he once was but last week saw the American get some comfortable wins under his belt which should do him the world of confidence. Although he hasn't had a great season, his hard court results aren't bad with a final appearence and then making the semis last week. His serve is still a real weapon, especially against a guy like Russell, who is incredibly fit but will struggle to trouble Andy on serve. In recent weeks Russell has beaten the lesser opponents if you like but against the better players, such as Wawrinka and Davydenko, he really struggled to make much of an impact in those matches. Think it just boils down to I don't see Roddick being troubled much on serve, and although he isn't the best returner in the world, he should get quite a few chances on Russell's serve and one really easy set should be enough to cover the handicap. Vasek Pospisil vs Lukas Rosol- Rosol +2.5 game handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) This is a match that I expect to last for quite a while, where I don't see either player gaining enough momentum to run away with it. Pospisil is still very inexperienced in the ATP events, let alone slams as he plays mostly challengers and despite giving Federer a match the other week, this is a big step up for him. The only reason I see for him being favourite in this one is his recent practice on the hard courts whereas Rosol is coming off the back of playing on the clay for a few months so he'll need to adjust to the quicker conditions. However he has some decent scalps to his name on the hard courts this season which shows he can clearly hold his own on the quicker surfaces as well as clay. With his big serve and powerful groundstrokes which saw him beat Melzer in the French Open, he should be able to adjust to the conditions pretty quickly, and hold his own but in case this goes the distance and he falls short, taking the handicap as insurance. And a couple for the women. Venus Williams vs Sabine Lisicki- Over 21.5 games- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Expect this one to be a cracker and very tight throughout. Although Lisicki won over in Dallas last week, in truth she couldn't have asked for a better preparation given the quality of players she had to face. Dropping no more than 3 games in any match tells it's own story of what she came up against but Venus will be a complete step up to what she's been facing. The American eased her way back into the swing of things with a comfortable win in the first round but like her opponent, this will be a step up. Both players are good on serve and will hit their fair share of winners, leading me to think neither is going to isolate the others game, meaning it should be tight. Firmly believe this could be one of the games of the tournament and could very well go into sudden death at the end of the third. A couple of really tight sets could still see the line through though so overs for me. Yanina Wickmayer vs Alla Kudryavtseva- Wickmayer -5.5 game handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Surprised we are getting this price to be honest as I think Wickmayer will get at least one really comfortable set, if not both. Neither girl came into this week in good form but Wickmayer was far more convincing in the first round, easily dispatching Cirstea whilst the Russian only narrowly beat Rodionova in two extremely tight sets. In that one she offered tons of chances on her serve, and if she does that today, Wickmayer is a far better player and will make her pay for some weak serving. Wickmayer only offered 4 break points in her first round match and you'd expect her to improve with every match she plays. She's got some points to defend from last year after making the fourth round so she should be up for this match and I'd fancy her to win with some ease like she's done in their previous 2 meetings on the hard courts, winning 6-2 6-4 and 6-1 6-2 at Flushing Meadows last year.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Bit better from my own perspective yesterday. Young and Pavyluchenkova were comfortable throughout and luckily Mahut came back from a couple of sets down. Was fairly tight in the Verdasco match but no tie break and Jovanovski, well haven't seen the match but looks like I got that one completely wrong. Anyway, tiny profit of +2.46, leaving me on -9.28.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Hugely frustrating day yesterday with Giraldo falling one game short on the handicap and Harrison having plenty of chances against Cilic to take at least one set. Petzschner needed 5 sets to beat Ramos incredibly and despite a tie break in the first set, Dimitrov couldn't cover the overs. However Karlovic and Fish covered their handicaps comfortably. Those results give me -11.74 for day one of the slam, when it could have been so much better. Think that was very much Atko's day with some very good calls indeed, and perhaps a tiny bit of fortune with a couple of the bets, but a winning bet is a good bet ;). Onto today then, and going to be a bit more conservative with the bets, and hopefully claw back the losses of yesterday. 5 in total, and taking my first couple of bets on the women's side of things. Donald Young vs Lukas Lacko- Young -5 game handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Lacko has only made it into the main draw as a lucky loser after Ilhan beat him easily in the final qualifying round and this season, he just hasn't been able to carry on his impressive results from the ATP events of last year. He's been playing alot of challenger events without great success it must be said and of late he has lost to some very average opponents. Young will be sky high on confidence right now after perhaps a season he could have only dreamt of. He made the semis a few weeks back in Washington and the third round of the masters in Indian Wells earlier in the year where he beat Murray. His confidence, put together with some home support should see him past an out of sorts Lacko here and win this with a bit to spare in my opinion. Nicolas Mahut vs Robert Farah- Mahut -3.5 game handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Just feel this line is half a game too short for what is on offer. Neither players have had superb seasons but Mahut has got that extra experience and quality which should be enough for him to win this one. He is better than what his ranking suggests on the quicker courts with his big serve and ability at the net and he has managed to be competitive against Mardy Fish back in Atlanta and beat Berankis before that which is a decent result. Farah seems to have his best results on the clay, and although he has qualified, a couple of the matches have been fairly lengthy 3 setters so he may not be 100% for today. When he's faced an opponent of decent quality this year he has really struggled, as we can see through Tomic, Falla and Kavcic beating him easily. The handicap is low enough that even if Mahut drops a set, he can still cover it, and he will look to pick up some point here after not making the proper draw last year. Jarkko Nieminen vs Fernando Verdasco- Tie Break in Match- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Don't see either of these players running away with the match and it should be fairly tight for the majority. Verdaco should win it in the end, but Nieminen has a decent serve and won't be easy to break with the angles he can get with his lefty serve. Verdasco has been extremely hit and miss in matches this year, and we saw against a really under par Nadal, how Verdasco couldn't close the match off. The Spaniard may suffer from a touch of rustiness at the start of the match and Nieminen should keep it close so we may well see a close set which goes to a tie break. And a couple for the women. Bojana Jovanovski vs Serena Williams- Over 16.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) They always set this line when Jovanovski plays one of the top players and I really don't understand it. I rate her quite highly and I expect to be a top 20 player at the very least in the next 12-18 months. The hard courts is where her game is the most effective as she can hit through most of the women on the tour and surprise them with her power and hit a fair share of winners. At the start of the year she got to the semis in Sydney, beating the likes of Pennetta, Rezai and Kanepi. She then took a set of Zvonareva at the Australian Open, and a few weeks back in Toronto troubled Sharapova in the second set. In Toronto Zheng and Safarova managed to take sets off the American and then Hradecka put in a good show in Cincinnati before Williams pulled out before her match against Stosur, and given her injury woes of the past couple of years I'm doubtful if she'll be at her best straight away this week. The line is just too low for me, and if Jovanovski doesn't win at least 5 games, I'd be surprised. Anna Tatishvilli vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova- Pavlyuchenkova- 5.5 game handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Pav hasn't been at her best in recent weeks but she managed to win a couple in New Haven which should give her a bit of confidence for Flushing Meadows. She didn't go into last year's slam in great form but she eased her way to the fourth round and Im backing her to do something similiar this year. The hard courts are very much her preferred surface and she already has a semi appearence and a tournament win in Monterrey to her name this season. Tatishvilli does well against players of similiar quality but she will have to play extremely well to cope with Pav on a hard court. This is the first time she's qualified for the first round at Flushing Meadows so she'll pick up some points no matter what the result but Pav will want to play well to gain form for the next couple of weeks and I see her winning comfortably here like she did in their previous meeting where the Russian won 6-1 6-2.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011

fishy25' date= what u think about Shtepanek and Montanes today ?

Haven't looked into either match in any detail. Atko has covered both matches so that should be where to look rather than me. I tend to stay away from Kohlschreiber matches thoug, never know what you will get with the German. If I had to call it I'd back Stepanek based on current form and the fact he dominates the head to head but as I say, I generally stay away from Kohlschreiber matches. The Monty-Kukushkin affair is another I really don't know what will happen. Montanes is the better player, but hasn't had much practice on the surface whereas Kukushkin has, albeit at challenger level. Just the perfect match to avoid in my opinion.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Got to love Bet365, putting their prices up straight after I take the similiar bet with another bookmaker at a lower price :wall

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 Don't think I'll take anymore than I have now after being frustrated by Bet365 for their ongoing laziness to put up the handicaps. Taken 6 in total, was going to be more but been outpriced. Let's hope for a good first day in the thread. Philipp Petzschner vs Albert Ramos- Petzschner -7 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (6/10) My biggest bet of R1 here and I can't really add too much to what's already been said by others. The Spaniard hasn't played on the hard courts at all this season and has never made the proper draw of the US or Australian Open. He is very much a clay courter which is where he is at home but on the quicker surfaces, there's nothing to suggest that he should trouble the Petzschner today. The German has had some decent results this year and beaten some good players on the surface, but most of all is comfortable on the hard courts and had some practice on them. Ramos hasn't and I'd be surprised if this is anything other than an easy Petzschner win. Mardy Fish vs Tobias Kamke- Fish -8.5 handicap- 8/11 Coral- (5/10) If Fish carries his form from the couple of previous master events into today and the next couple of weeks, he should be comfortable until the quarters at least. It's usually at this time of the year Mardy seems to peak and really play his best stuff and after making 3 finals and a semi in his last 4 tournaments, his confidence should be sky high and with the crowd behind him, he should be comfortable against Kamke today, who if he falls behind, can sometimes go missing as we saw against Monaco last week and I don't see him coping with an in form Mardy today. Grigor Dimitrov vs Gael Monfils- Over 36.5 games- 4/5 Coral- (5/10) Monfils and straight forward grand slam wins aren't two things which are usually associated with eachother. He is very good to watch but not easy on the nerves if you have a handicap on him as he seems to do everything the hard way. This was always going to be the handicap on Dimitrov or the overs but I've gone for the overs in case Monfils rallies towards the end of the match and Dimitrov given his inexperience goes missing. Whatever happens, I don't see Monfils winning this is 3 sets, and a couple of tight sets should see the overs through. Ryan Harrison vs Marin Cilic- Harrison +4.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Atko actually made me aware of this one so thanks to him for that as I completely bypassed it when I looked at the matches. Like Atko has said, Harrison is a really tricky first round opponent for Cilic and the handicap looks at least a game or so high to me. Harrison plays most of his tennis all year round on the hard courts over in the US so this is the time of year, like Mardy Fish if you like where he really seems to blossom. He has made it to a couple of semis recently in Atlanta and Los Angeles, and we saw earlier on in the year what he's capable of on these courts where he pushed Federer in round 4 in Indian Wells. Harrison beat Ljubicic last year in round 1 in Flushing Meadows, and there are similiarities between Ljubicic and Cilic's game. Marin hasn't done too much on the hard courts this year, failing to get past the fourth round in any tournaments and given the home support, I'll back the young American who can really spring a surprise to run Cilic close here. Ivo Karlovic vs Fernando Gonzalez- Karlovic -4.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Narrowly missed out on the evens price on this one but the price is still high enough to back the big Croat here. You know what you'll get with Karlovic, big serve and not much else and a seemingly guaranteed tie break in every match. However, Gonzalez has only played the one match on the hard courts this season as he still has fitness worries and doesn't play a great deal. That single hard court match was a defeat to Igor Kunitsyn about a month back and he hasn't played since and that would worry me if i were a fan of the Chilian. He won't get many, if any chances to break Karlovic, and given his lack of court time, will struggle to cope with the power of the Croatian. A couple of breaks should see the handicap through, and although it may be fairly tight for a while, I still see Karlovic winning this with a bit so spare come the end of the match. Roger Federer vs Santiago Giraldo- Giraldo +8.5 handicap- 5/4 Coral- (4/10) Was initially going to take the overs in this one, but must admit I've been tempted by the price here more than anything. Atko has already mentioned that Federer in recent weeks hasn't been the Federer of old and looked extremely average by his own high standards. Barring the win against Blake, it's been a while since he blew his opponent off court and won easily like he used to do for fun. Giraldo is no mug on the surface and had some decent runs on the hard courts at the start of the season. He has the power to hit some winners and should keep it fairly tight for the majority, could perhaps even pinch a set. The line looks to high though and I'll back him to give Federer a match today.

[Cricket: Friends Life t20]

Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 Cracking stuff from Kev, as he shows how it's done whereas I really didn't. Loss of somewhere around the -39/40 region in a tournament which has been a nightmare for me. Hopefully the tennis will make up for it in the next couple of weeks. Nothing left to be said apart from :clap:notworthy Kev.

[Tennis 22-28 August]

Re: Tennis 22-28 August

I was all for coming on here and congratulating you on your almost superman-like premonitions ... but I'm not sure I will now. You are a sanctamonious little prick by the sounds of it. However' date=' I look forward to your picks at the US Open. Let's see what you're made of then. I got it wrong yesterday, but I have no regrets, and I'll take it on the chin. I'd like to think I'll find a winner soon enough. What the result proved is perhaps [b']even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while ...

Especially if they are gay, they just have that intuition ;) But yeah, if you're so keen on taking others' picks apart, only way to show that you know far better is to post picks for the US open and prove us all wrong.

[Tennis - The US Open 2011]

Re: Tennis - The US Open 2011 I'll have 3 antepost bets like Atko as well. With regards to the outrights, believe Ladbrokes are offering refunds to any outright bet if Murray wins the slam. Andy Murray to reach the semis- Evens Sportingbet- (5/10) Rafael Nadal to reach the semis- 4/6 Sportingbet- (5/10) Unbelievably the prices of these two were up at 11/8 and 5/6 yesterday but I've missed out on that but the prices are still way too high in my opinion for two guys who I expect to meet eachother in the semis. First off I'm not as brave as Atko to back the Scot on the outright although I really hope he does make the final but I don't see how he won't make at least the semis given how he played in Cincinnati and how he loves the conditions at Flushing Meadows. He played better in every match he played when he won the tournament a couple of weeks back and he should be full on confidence, with no injury scares to hamper him this year. His route to final isn't perhaps the easiest but as Atko says, that may not be such a bad thing and might be what he needs to win this thing this year. I have his potential opponents identical to Atko, and he shouldn't have too many problems until Del Porto perhaps, as I don't see Wawrinka beating him again this year, but watching Del Porto, I'd fancy Murray to win that given his return game and I fully expect Murray to reach the semis this year, at least. Where this price has come from on Nadal I have no idea. He is the defending champion at Flushing Meadows this year and has got to at least the semis in the past 3 years. Granted his form coming into the slam isn't perfect, with losses to Fish and Dodig, but how often do we see Rafa up his game for the big ocassions. At the start of the French Open he wasn't playing his best stuff in the first couple of rounds but started to pick up and eventually made the final there. His draw isn't as bad as Murray's with his route to the semis something like Golubev-Mahut-Ljubicic/Nalbandian-Youzhny/Melzer?-Roddick. Fair to say there's a few matches I can't really call due there due to so many players not having played much and being terribly out of form. That will help Nadal as you need to be confident going in to playing him otherwise you are essentially beaten before a point is played. I don't see that draw too taxing for the Spaniard and I don't see any of those players beating the defending champ so Rafa to meet Murray in the semis for me. Stan Wawrinka to reach the last 16- 11/10 Sportingbet- (4/10) I'm backing Wawrinka to be Murray's opponent in the fourth round which is where I see the Scot gaining his revenge for last year's defeat. He reached the quarters last year, and has made the fourth round in 3 of the past 4 years. His preparation wasn't ideal for Flushing Meadows as he lost to Golubev in Cincinnati which was a poor result given how Golubev has performed this year but at least it will mean Wawrinka is fresh for this week. He performed well in Montreal the week before so that poor showing in Cincinnati doesn't bother me that much. His 3 opponents to beat I have as Gonzalez-Young-Chela which isn't bad at all for the Swiss no.2. Gonzalez hasn't won a match for months as he still has a whole load of injury and fitness concerns, Young has had some decent results this year, making the semis in Washington a few weeks back but I'm doubtful whether he could pull of that kind of form against a top player in a slam. And then potentially Chela in the third round who he leads the H2H 4-2 including a straight sets win last year in the US open. Chela just hasn't done much on the quicker courts this year and has only won 2 matches on the hard courts all year. Stan seems to like the US conditions and he's my pick for Murray's opponent in round 4.

[Cricket: Friends Life t20]

Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 Given the delay in the cricket, have taken a couple of bets on the second semi now I've seen how the pitch is playing. Hampshire to beat Somerset- Evens Ladbrokes- (4/10) Haven't got a whole lot to add to Kev's reasoning but looking at the pitch, it's turning more than I thought it would. Parry and Keedy haven't gone for many and we saw Taylor who is a very good player of spin be in all sorts of trouble against the spinners. Hampshire as we know have three quality spinners in Briggs, Afridi and Tahir who are all fairly different spinners but all equally effective. Kev's mentioned that Pollard, one of Somerset's main men isn't the greatest player of spin so that could again be a huge advantage as Pollard, along with Buttler got them through to finals day. Just purely based on what we've seen so far in the pitch, have to back Hampshire as underdogs with their 3 classy spinners. One or more Stumping in Match- 11/8 Sportingbet- (4/10) Would have liked a better price but given the spinning talent on show, I feel we could see a few chances for the keepers to whip the bails off. Already there have been 2 stumpings in the first semi, and a couple of other chances as well. Keedy and Parry have managed to make the ball turn past the edge and frustrate the Leicestershire bastman which is how Tayor eventually fell after straying down the pitch. We will see Briggs, Tahir, Afridi, Kartik and Suppiah in the second semi who have all had good seasons in the competition and can all take wickets. Granted Afridi doesn't turn it a great deal, but all of the spinners can frusrate the opposition batsman and that could lead to a stumping later on in the day given the vast numbers of attacking batsmen on show.

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Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 Can't believe Razzaq in that over, blocking 5 balls on the trot meaning the maiden bet is a loser already :wall. Frustrating weather though, think the forecast is on/off showers all day which is a shame.

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Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 And now the potential huge value bets. Of course it's tricky given some will only play one match but I've picked at least one player from each county to give a larger chance with the bets and also for added entertainment whilst watching :lol Also I'm not sure who will win their respective semis as they are so tight. Finals Day Leading Run Scorer- 1/4, 1,2,3,4 Steven Croft- 14/1 BlueSquare- (0.5/10 E/W) Neil McKenzie- 16/1 BlueSquare- (0.5/10 E/W) James Taylor- 20/1 BlueSquare- (0.5/10 E/W) First off the Lancashire captain who tomorrow will face his biggest day yet as captain. Although he will be under pressure, that doesn't worry me with Croft as he is one of those guys who seems to thrive under the pressure and grit his teeth and pull out a good performance. He has 351 runs this season in T20, and in the past few matches he has put in some top notch performances. He hit 50 and 107 in his last Championship match, and then 85 in their most recent match against Glamorgan. He comes into finals day in good nick and if Lancashire break this curse of finals day for them, sure Croft will have to hit some runs tomorrow. McKenzie hasn't scored too many runs in his last couple of innings but that shouldn't make a difference tomorrow. He is one of the classiest batsman on show tomorrow and his experience and craft will be crucial for his side if they are to retain the trophy. He has over 400 runs to his name in the tournament this season, and we saw in the quarter final against Durham how key he is in the middle order to provide that stability if a couple of early wickets are lost. He essentially gave them the foundations to win that quarter final, and I expect him to be solid and classy as ever tomorrow and hit some important runs for his side. And last but not least for the leading runscorer is a guy who I firmly believe will be a key batsman for England in the coming years. T20 may not suit his game ideally, but James Taylor has shown this season he can still pound the boundaries in this format and hit a fair amount of runs. He's scored 300 runs this season and although not having a score over 53, tomorrow he will be looking to impress the England selectors as well as help his team to success. He was overlooked in the tests against India in favour of Bopara so the motivation will be there for the youngster to prove why he is such a talent in the domestic game and show why he should be considered more seriously and I'll hope he shows us what he can do tomorrow. Finals Day Leading Wicket Taker- 1/4, 1,2,3 Dimi Mascarenhas- 12/1 BlueSquare- (0.5/10 E/W) Sajid Mahmood- 16/1 BlueSqaure- (0.5/10 E/W) How I'm reading the conditions and wicket tomorrow given the past few matches at Edgbaston, I'm favouring the seamers over the spinners in terms of wickets, although I'd fancy the spinners to keep things tighter like we usually see in T20. First off is Mascarenhas who has 21 wickets to his name this season which is impressive, especially given the main focal point of Hampshire's bowling attack is their 3 spinners, however Dimi has performed consistently well. He'll bowl a couple of overs up front, and then 1 or possibly 2 at the death where there are always chances of a constant flow of wickets. The Somerset side who they are up against in the semis are generally quite good players of spin but what really leads me to Mascarenhas is the variation which is so key when bowling in T20. He isn't the quickest, but his variation of line and length makes him a very difficult bowler to pick and score off consistently. Also Somerset are full of players who will want to pound the boundaries and that won't be easy against a former international and Mascarenhas is one of those guys who won't be phased against the batting quality he will come up against and he could well be the forgotten treasure in the Hampshire bowling attack. Last time Lancashire were at finals day Mahmood missed out on playing and he has spoken about how he really wants to perform well for his side tomorrow. Now simply looking at this pick some would think I'm crazy, given his erratic nature and the fact he only has 10 wickets in the competition this year, however he is the type of player who can turn out a world class performance from nowhere. There's no Junaid Khan so Mahmood's death bowling is going to have to be spot on tomorrow and with that extra pressure, Saj could well thrive on it and have one of those days where we see why he was tipped to do great things as a youngster. Finals Day Leading Six Hitter Steven Croft- 14/1 BlueSquare- (1/10 E/W) James Vince- 16/1 BlueSquare- (1/10 E/W) James Taylor- 25/1 BlueSqaure- (0.5/10 E/W) Of course with this bet there are the obvious choices of Pollard, Trescothik, Afridi and Razzaq but I've opted for 3 guys who aren't fancied too much in this category. I've spoken about Croft already and how he will have to go well tomorrow for his side with the bat and if he does get going, watching him clear the ropes is a joy to watch. He has hit quite a few maximums this year in the tournament, and in his most recent innings in the one dayer against Glamorgan he smashed 5 on his way to his 85 showing how he find those big shots to clear the ropes. If he gets going tomorrow against a fairly weakish Leicestershire bowling attack, he could be in with a shout. Know Kev has opted for Vince's teamate in Afridi but I've gone for Vince in this one who can pack a punch with the wood in his hands. He, like McKenzie is a classy batsman to watch and although he is compared to Michael Vaughan, we've seen quite a bit of tv this season of the kid and he looks extremely free when he plays and he is more than capable to match the big hitters in terms of maximums. He'll lead from the front and this could be the day that really puts him in line for a future England call up. Now if anyone has ever seen Taylor play, you will know that his natural game is a nurdler, looking to score off most balls and picking off the bad ball which explains the high price. However, as Leicestershire got some momentum behind them and pushed to reach the quarter finals, the youngster seemed to play far more freely and in the last 2 group matches, he hit 6 in total, including 3 at Edgbaston where they play tomorrow. If he gets in early, he will look to bat for the majority of the innings, and if he gets in, he will be well set to try and push for those bigger shots. High price for the kid who I rate so highly, but he could be a surprise package in this market.

[Cricket: Friends Life t20]

Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 Right the finals day special bets then. Actually looked into them quite heavily, and taken 10 in total. Of course some are similiar in terms of the market, but all of them I see as potential good value. Away from the outrights, I'm not actually taking any bets in the individual semis, so I'll leave that to the others but I'm just looking forward to enjoying the semis and hope my picks have a good finals day. Murali Kartik Most Economical Somerset Bowler- 5/4 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Only Kartik, Gregory, Pollard and Suppiah count in the bet. Kartik has been one of the most consistent bowlers in the domestic game for quite a while now and him being fit for finals day will be a massive boost for Somerset. He has taken 16 wickets this year in T20, but he usually keeps things tight and is very hard to get away for the majority of time. I'm guessing Somerset will continue to open with Kartik for an over in the powerplay before giving him his other 3 in the mid point of the innings. Facing a spinner is never easy in T20 as we've seen, and especially on such a big ocassion, to have to face an experienced bowler like Kartik won't be easy. His main threat in this little group of players in this bet is likely to be Suppiah, who seems to have had a revelation in the T20 this year after taking the record for the best figures. Despite his good form with the ball, Kartik is still a better bowler in terms of quality and he's seen finals day time and time again with his various counties so he should be the most comfortable tomorrow. There also may be chance we will get some brief showers tomorrow which makes the ball hard to grip, and extremely hard for the spinners to control. If this is the case though, Kartik has that extra quality to control the ball and will still be hard to get away. Gregory and Pollard are both good bowlers, but can still go for a few with that extra pace on the ball. Along with Thomas, Kartik will be one of the main guys for Somerset whilst they are on the field, and given his experience, I'll back him to have the best economy rate for Somerset tomorrow. Gary Keedy Most Economical Lancashire Bowler- 9/4 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Only Keedy, Parry, Khan and Maharoof count in the bet. Well we can exclude Junaid Khan from this little selection as he is on international duty and isn't playing tomorrow so we are left with just 3. This could well be Keedy's last year with his boyhood club as there's talk about him moving on at the end of the season. If that is the case he will want to put in a big effort personally to try and win the competition after falling short in the past with Lancashire. Like Kartik for Somerset, Keedy generally keeps things extremely tight and will bowl his 4 overs in no time and keep the batsman pinned down to around 6 an over or better. He leads the wicket charts for Lancashire this year and if there's one bowler in the Lancashire attack that Leicestershire will try to see off with as little damage as possible it is the wily spinner. Parry is obviously very capable as well, and apparantly on the brink of the England 'B' side but I still rate Keedy above him right now and experience is invaluable on days like this. Maharoof, although having a good first campaign with Lancs, whenever I've seen him bowl he hasn't looked that brilliant and has always been overshadowed by Junaid Khan. Maharoof will bowl up the top of the innings against the likes of Cobb and McDonald who will look to score freely so there's a fair chance the Sri Lankan will go for a few and I'd fancy Keedy's economy rate to be lower than Parry's in the middle overs so I'm siding with the veteran here.

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Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 The prices are back up on Ladbrokes now btw, the maiden bet is at 4/7 atm. I'm doing the same Kev, but putting a few markets and players into an extended shortlist :lol.

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Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 Only other option could be to wait and see if any other bookies offer a better price? I'd have a guess that Ladbrokes will put the same markets up again later today.

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Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 I think they've suspended it for the time being mate. Earlier it was under a little sub category of 'specials' but I can't see it now. I'm guessing they will put it back up later, maybe after revised prices though :\

[Cricket: Friends Life t20]

Re: Cricket: Friends Life t20 The most exciting day in the cricket calandar is upon us and I for one cannot wait. The one saturday of the year that the cricket is on ahead of soccer saturday and I'm going home from uni to 'see the parents', i.e. they have sky and I don't. Onto tomorrow then, and I'm personally standing on -19.47, so I'll hope to end on a respectable figure come the end of finals day. Sure there will be a fair number of bets about, and I'm taking a very early one. Here's to a good finals day for the spectator and punter. No Maiden to be bowled on finals day- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (7/10) Couldn't believe the price when I saw it and I'm sure it won't last for too long so I'm jumping on early. Think it was Kev last year that took this bet on finals day and it came through nicely, and I don't see any reason why it shouldn't again tomorrow. A few relevant stats for this one that I've digged out are that between the 4 sides on show today, they have bowled a total of 8 maidens in the competition this year, which averages out to 1 maiden in every 8.5 matches or so if that average continues to happen, the odds given are way too high. This with the fact that there haven't been any maidens bowled at Edgbaston this year in T20, provokes extra confusion to where these odds have come from. I like this bet alot, and with no Junaid Khan for Lancashire, I see the main threat to this bet out of this picture so I'll back all teams to score off each over tomorrow.