fishy25
-
Posts
1,841 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by fishy25
-
-
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship Just a passing bet I've done but expect it to be void within the next hour or so. Sportingbet have Chisnall (+1.5) handicap despite him being favourite. I've taken it but like I said, it should be voided but no harm in taking it ;)
-
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship
:welcome Why do you say that mate? I personally feel it's a tad low...Think Nicholson game 180s line is bit high first ever time on here -
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship Poor session from my perspective, only called the Thornton/White match right. Really disappointed with Baxter though, just couldn't get going consistently. -8 for the session though, with the Wright quarter bet a loser, leaving me on +0.21 overall. Let's hope for a better session tonight in which it's fair to say, I need a fair few maximums. Steve Beaton vs Magnus Carus- Over 4.5 180s- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Agreed with Kev in that I feel the line is too low. Beaton is extremely consistent with his scoring and has a lovely rhythm to his throw. If he really gets into his stride he could even cover this line by himself within 3 sets by Caris can contribute to the line as well. He should be able to score a couple himself so the 5 maximums in this match we need look pretty decent to take here. Mark Hylton to beat Vincent van der Voort- 11/10 Sportingbet- (4/10) Over 6.5 180s- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) The Dutchman has spoken recently about his head not being in the right place so he'll have mental issues to cope with as well as a very competent player in Mark Hylton who will be looking to repeat his impressive run from last year. He made the last 16 which shows what he can do on the stage in this tournament. He's also made the quarter finals of the Grand Prix and UK open this year so the big events really don't faze him. Van der Voort just couldn't hit a double against Stompe last week really giving us an indication that his head isn't completely right at the minute so I'll back Hylton at odds against to win this one. Also backing both players to combine and score at least 7 180s tonight. Van der Voort may be struggling on his doubles but he is still more than capable of scoring heavily so he should be able to hit a few in this one. Hylton is also a heavy scorer when he gets going and can hit a few maximums in just as many legs when he is playing well. He hit 4 maximums in 9 legs against Mark Walsh last week and there will be at least 13/14 legs tonight minimum I fancy so this line looks doable for two guys who can really pound the lipstick. Paul Nicholson vs Mensur Suljovic- Over 15.5 legs- 8/11 Bluesquare- (5/10) Over 6.5 180s- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Don't see Nicholson having this completely his all way. I was actually at Ally Pally last year when Suljovic beat Wade and he was extremely impressive, not letting the big stage faze him in the slightest. His throwing style is extremely unusual but he can score well and his finishing isn't too shabby either. Nicholson talks a big game but he is yet to back that up on the big stage. Granted he usually faces Taylor who ultimately knocks him out but in order to be where he talks about, you need to be beating the bigger players from time to time. I don't see him losing this one, but Suljovic is more than capable of taking a set in this which should lead to us seeing a minimum of 16 legs in this one. A 4 sets minimum should also bring the 180s line into play. Both can hit maximums consistently when they get going and both players could spur the other on when they hit the 180s. Nicholson hit 4 180s in his final leg defeat to Steve Brown last week which lasted 11 legs. A similar maximum scoring rate should see him hit 5 or 6 perhaps tonight, and with Suljovic bring no stranger to the lipstick, I reckon we have a chance of seeing 7 maximums in this one.
-
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship Tiny profit of +1.76 thanks to the unders safely coming through in the Taylor match, leaving me on +8.21 after the first couple of days. Taking 5 in the afternoon session to start with for today. Peter Wright to beat Jelle Klassen- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) Over 6.5 180s- 8/11 William Hill- (4/10) Must state you can get a slightly better price on Wright if you look around but I don't have accounts with VC or Boyles. Despite that, the price is still good enough for me to back Wright here. We saw last week what a good player Wright is, with him averaging over 100 in both of his matches and he could have easily gone 5-0 against Wes Newton, in a match where he was scoring heavily and checking out superbly. Klaasen as had a really poor year, only making into the last 16 in the floor tournaments 3 times all year, and two of those came in the first few months of the season, showing what a poor season he has had, despite his abundance of quality. Klaasen does have ability and he could well take a set, but in the end I see Wright, in the form he is in, being too consistent for the Dutchman. Also backing the overs on the maximums with these both being heavy scorers once they get going. They are both capable of finding the lipstick on a regular basis as we've seen and although I'm backing Wright to win the match, Klaasen could well pinch a set or two which should give enough time for these two to find their rhythm and knock in a minimum of 7 180s here. Ronnie Baxter (-1.5 sets) to beat Steve Farmer- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Backing Ronnie to be fairly comfortable in this one. Baxter's had a decent season without being exceptional. He's won 2 Players Championship events on the floor, and has 2 semi appearances to show and a final loss to Taylor over in Wigan last month but he'll be a tad disappointed about his form in the TV events where he hasn't made it past the last 32 in any event on the stage. He did play well last week though but he was unlucky in that Barneveld played really well against him. Farmer hasn't really done alot this year since making the semis in the Players Championship earlier this year, failing to make it into the semis of any event. He isn't coming into the tournament with any great form behind him really and Baxter should be able to take advantage of that and I'd fancy him to win this no worse than 3-1. Robert Thornton vs Ian White- Over 17.5 legs- Evens BlueSquare- (3/10) Over 6.5 180s- Evens BlueSquare- (3/10) This could actually be the match of the session and I'm quite looking forward to it. Both should have the thought of facing Lewis in the second round and given how Lewis played, both players must fancy playing him and claiming a big scalp. I don't see Lewis playing that badly again though but it should be a big motivating factor for both of these guys. Thornton had a really good first 6 months of the season, but since then he hasn't gone too well in any tournament and he hasn't made it past the last 16 of a tournament. We saw what Ian White can do at the grand slam where be beat Barneveld but before that, he's been pretty good on the floor as well, where he has beaten the likes of Burnett and Wade. Thornton is he gets going could blow White away but he hasn't been in the greatest form for a while so I see this one having 4 sets minimum, if not going the whole way so I'll back us seeing at least 18 legs in this one. As I've said I expect it to last a little while and that should give both players plenty of time to cover the maximum line. Thornton can hit maximums for fun if he finds his range and if he does he will make this line look a bit silly. White can score heavily as well though so he can contribute to the total and if it goes to 4/5 sets like I expect it to, 7 maximums doesn't look out of range for these two to cover.
-
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship One more for me tonight. Phil Taylor vs Haruki Muramatsu- Under 5.5 180s- 8/13 Bet365- (6/10) This line is a fair bit higher than other bookies have it and don't see it lasting long. Can't see Taylor having too many problems here given what we sawfrom the qualifier earlier. He didn't hit any maximums and averaged around the 85 mark. If he plays like that, he won't get many chances to even get down to a finish against Taylor meaning there won't be too many legs, and Taylor will switch if his darts aren't right as well. Just feel the line is too high so unders for me in the last match of the session.
-
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship Cracking night of darts yesterday, and a decent profit of +6.45 to give me a good start. That with Lewis fighting back to keep the outright going and hitting a few 180s rounded off a good night. Not taking alot tonight, bit unsure over the card but I am taking two. Co Stompe vs Michael Smith- Over 16.5 legs- 4/5 BlueSquare- (5/10) Really didn't expect the line to be this low and to cut a long story short, I don't see either guy not winning a set which should be enough to cover this smallish line in my opinion. Both are good players and should be able to cancel eachother out for the majority in this one and hold their throw comfortably enough. Stompe's not had a great year by any accounts but he improved a touch in the Grand Slam before Lewis produced a magical performance, and beat Van Der Voort last week which should give him some confidence despite his poor finishing against Chisnall. Smith is a promising player, echoed through Gary Anderson sponsoring him and more importantly, a UK open qualifier win to his name this year and even hit a 9 darter in a youth event which shows the quality he can produce. Stompe won 6-3 in their only previous meeting and whoever wins, bit of a coin toss for me, I don't see it being a one sided affair so fancy 4 sets here minimum which should bring this through. Wes Newton vs Kurt van de Rijk- Over 4.5 180s- 8/13 Bet365- (5/10) Regardless of the short price, this line is too low not to take in my opinion. The line itself is lower than virtually every other bookies and I don't see why that is. Even if Wes hammers his opponent, he has every chance of covering the line on his own, even in 9 straight legs. However, I don't see him doing completely that, given his slow starts recently on the stage, so there should be at least 12/13 legs by my reckoning which gives us more than enough time to see a minimal 5 maximums. When Newton gets going, he is very hard to stop and finds the lipstick consistently and at some stage tonight, he will probably win 4/5 straight legs and that should bode well for the line. Van der Rijk has made a semi in a Players Championship event already this year showing he is no mug, so he could well throw in a couple of maximums himself. Either way, long or short match, if Wes gets going, this line should be covered.
-
Re: 2012 LADBROKES WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP. A few for the other matches as well. Could go horribly wrong before it's even begun :lol Richie Burnett (+1.5 sets) to beat Mark Webster- 11/8 William Hill- (3/10) Over 5.5 180s- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) With the crowd here in that Burnett is being underrated here. From the head to head, Burnett has shown what he can do against he fellow Welshman. It's been a good season for Burnett, with him making the semis at the Grand Prix where I thought he was excellent, beating Anderson in the process and some other good results to show including a win over in Holland. Webster of late hasn't been at his absolute best, with alot of missed doubles to show, and given Burnett should be able to keep up with him scoring wise, he should be there to take advantage if Webster sticks to recent habits and misses chances to win the legs. Can't ignore Richie here, he has been around for a long time and in front of the TV cameras he has been impressive, so he should be able to stick with Webster and take a couple of sets, if not the match. As I said I think this may be a pretty close one and it could potentially go all the way. If this is the case it gives us more than enough time to see 6 or more maximums. Both can score well so they will contribute to covering the line, and bar any unexpected whitewashes for either player, fancy there to be at least 6 180's between the pair of them. Adrian Lewis vs Nigel Heydon- Over 6.5 180s- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) Over 15.5 legs- 5/6 Bluesquare- (3/10) Spoken a lot about the defending champ before this, and I feel the earlier rounds are the ones where he is most vulnerable. Whoever says he has had a bad year, needs to seriously have a look at what Lewis has achieved. PL runner up and making the semis at the Matchplay are just the start of it so I really don't understand where those comments have come from. However Heydon is a good solid player, and can certainly hold his own tonight. He actually beat Lewis in their last meeting in October, and in the previous meetings to that, Lewis was only a narrow winner. Heydon has a win over Anderson when he qualified for the Grand Slam, which just highlights what he is capable of. There should a few tight sets here, and I feel Heydon is capable of pinching one of them, which should lead to more than 15 legs. If we do see anywhere near the capacity of 15 legs, this line of the 180s will look extremely short. Lewis could easily cover it on his own if he gets going for a couple of sets, but Heydon can score heavily as well so he should contribute to the total as well. I don't see Lewis winning 3-0, and that should give us enough legs to see the required 7 180s we need here.
-
Re: 2012 LADBROKES WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP. Right after all that, onto tonight's card. Will cover the first match first just in case I don't finish by the time it starts. Took them all earlier so unsure whether any of the prices have changed since them. Wouldn't have fluctuated much in any case. Jamie Caven (1.5 sets) to beat Roland Scholten- 5/4 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Under 5.5 180's- 21/20 BlueSquare- (3/10) Caven dominates the head to head 5-0 here, and I fancy him to record another win here at the expense of no more than a set. Caven has been pretty consistent all year without being spectacular. He has made a couple of semis on the floor though, and a couple of semis to go along with that and he should be too consistent for Scholten despite his awful record on tv in which he only has 4 wins in any of the past 20 tv tournaments. The Dutchman has struggled with injury for a little while now and isn't even a shadow of the player he has been in the past. He's not got much to his name at all this season so I'm doubtful, even with Caven's record, that he will trouble his opponent tonight so I'll back Caven on the handicap. Also like the unders on the maximums here. Every other bookmaker makes the unders odds on, yet bluesquare have it above evens which just shouts out to me. Scholten with his neck is unlikely to get into much of a routine when throwing, and Caven isn't the most consistent players when it comes to the lipstick either. Especially considering he may have a few nerves playing in front of the TV cameras. He couldn't muster more than one 180 against Rand last week, showing his maximum scoring credentials and I don't see us seeing more 5 tonight.
-
Re: 2012 LADBROKES WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP. Final two outrights then :loon Adrian Lewis Most Tournament 180s- 9/4 BlueSquare- (3/10) Raymond Van Barneveld Most Tournament 180s- 12/1 BlueSquare- (1/10) Already spoken loads about both guys and if either of them makes the quarters or even further, they should be right up there in this market. Lewis in the space of 5/6 legs could reach double figures, as he finds the lipstick with absolute ease. He's the defending champ so he will have the motivation to make up for a supposedly 'bad year'. Hard to see Jackpot not being right up there in terms of maximums scored, and the odds look a tad high on Lewis here. I'm with Kev on Barney though as well. If this bet has any chance of coming through, likelihood is, he'll have to beat Taylor and in order to do that, he'll have to score heavily and consistently which he is capable of doing. Once he gets into his stride he is a joy to watch and from last week, it's hard to ignore him in this market, and he should be in the running with Lewis and Anderson you'd feel if he gets going over the next few weeks.
-
Re: 2012 LADBROKES WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP. Now for the quarters. Agree with what Kev has said for a few. Raymond Van Barneveld to win 1st Quarter- 8/1 Bet365- (1/10) Pretty much said everything about Barney above in the outright. Taylor is rightfully the big favourite to make the quarters but if Barney gets going in his first couple of matches, and score like he did last week, the price is too big on him here for me. Mervyn King to win 2nd Quarter- 10/1 Sportingbet- (2/10) Why King is this high escapes me in what is a hugely open quarter. Anderson is the favourite but as we know, he'll miss doubles regularly and in the early few rounds he could well become stuck in the shortish format. King will also have to cope with Whitlock but he is coming back from injury, and to suddenly perform near your best on tv after some time out is a massive ask. King has reached the semis so he has shown he can perform in the tournament, and beating Taylor last week should give him a ton of confidence in what has been a tough year for the King. It's a wide open quarter though, and King is my pick to make it through if he is consistent enough. Wes Newton to win 3rd Quarter- 11/2 Sportingbet- (2/10) Terry Jenkins to win 3rd Quarter- 12/1 William Hill- (2/10) Now although I've taken Lewis for the tournament, this is perhaps a way of covering myself if you like. Lewis could be at his most vulnerable in the first few rounds which leads me to think Newton and Jenkins are in with a chance. Newton made the semis last week before Webster beat him, but he is without doubt one of the most consistent throwers about. He made the quarter finals last year and can beat any player on his day so he's worth a punt in this quarter I feel. Despite being in the bottom half of the quarter with Newton, I can't ignore Jenkins at this price. He looks to have hit some form just at the right time, with recent wins over Wade and Walsh, whilst he should have beaten Taylor last week in the Players Championship. The Bull made the semis here last year and given his recent return to form, the price looks big here so I'll back him along with Wes to trouble the world champ in this quarter. Kevin Painter to win 4th Quarter- 16/1 Bet365- (1/10) Peter Wright to win 4th Quarter- 25/1 Bet365- (1/10) Can't really add much to what has been said about these two so I won't bother, considering I want to do a few more write ups as well. Painter comes into the World Championship after his first tv win, and should have bags of confidence. He has made the quarters in the past where Taylor beat him, but that shows what he can do. Wade and Webster are the favourites in the quarter but neither have looked amazing to me recently so backing Painter to carry his form from last week onto the greatest stage of them all. Wright when he is playing well, plays very well. He will hit maximum after maximum and isn't too shabby when it comes to finishing either as he showed against Newton where in truth he should have won comfortably. Of course he'll have to beat Wade in the second round, but if he plays like he did against Newton in the early shortish format, he's in with a genuine chance, and he is at a price too big for me to pass up.
-
Re: 2012 LADBROKES WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP. Hoping to go to Ally Pally for a couple of sessions when I'm back from uni in a few days, for what looks to be a cracker of a tournament. Taken a number of outrights though, so no time to waste. Will start with the outright outright :lol Adrian Lewis to win PDC World Championship- 17/2 Bet365- (1.5/10) E/W Actually backing a couple of other players to win Lewis' quarter but IF he gets through his quarter, he'll have to be playing well and if he plays anywhere near his best, it will be hard to find anyone, excluding Taylor, that will match Jackpot. He has had a terrific year, and he would have won the grand slam a few weeks back if Taylor wasn't playing how he was. There's no Taylor until the final though for Lewis, and he shouldn't really be severely tested until the third round where he'll probably face Newton or Jenkins. It could well take him a couple of matches to get going, but from then he should go from strength to strength as he looks to retain his title. Potential semi against Painter I have and I'd have him as a huge favourite there and the final would bring an each way return in if Lewis failed to beat Taylor, but there's a chance someone could take care of him in the top half, but if Lewis is playing how he can, heavy scoring and clean finishing, it's hard to see anyone in the bottom half coping with him. Raymond Van Barneveld to win PDC World Championship- 40/1 Bet365- (1/10) E/W It hasn't been Barney's best season ever but he seems to perform consistently at this time of the year. He has won here in the past and played some exceptional darts, and although he hasn't produced that sort of performance for a while now, last week he seemed to showing glimpses of what he can do with the darts in his hand. He was pounding the maximums and scoring heavily, and if he gets some confidence in his opening couple of matches, we could see him go really well in the tournament. Of course the problem if Taylor being in his quarter, but as we saw last week, Taylor wasn't at his best. Jenkins should have beaten him before King eventually did, and the Power was averaging below 100 and was missing darts to finish legs off, so there's certainly no guarantees that Barney will even face Taylor, but if he did and has some confidence, he could well run him close and even take it. If that happened, this price looks ridiculous and even now, it's still too big for me to not back Barney with small stakes, given his history in the tournament.
-
Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals
Yeah they've paid out now, well they have to me anyways. Have they not done the same to you?Did u get it? i emailed and even call them but been send out to settlement dept will deal with it. I think they closed the bets just before the last break point and declared loss. -
Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals Yeah I'm writing them an email now as well. Looked last night and just thought they were being a bit slow with paying out, but this morning I still haven't received the winnings. Ladbrokes can be a bit sloppy with things like this I've found in the past. Remember on T20 finals day in the cricket, they started to give some absurd reasoning why one of their markets should be void when they were clear winners, just to make sure they didn't pay out on some ridiculous prices that they gave which were always too high. Were definitely 5 breaks of serve though so just email them and they'll give you the money.
-
Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals
No breaks in the first set, and only one in the second but always a danger this bet to the bookies when it goes to a third set. Still fortunate to come through though with 3 breaks in a row at the end.Had that poor day with the Murray and Berdych bets but having one in the final game with this break of serve market that really interests me. Rafael Nadal vs Jo Wilfried-Tsonga- Total Breaks of Serve Over 4.5- 5/4 Ladbrokes- (4/10) WIN -
Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals Had that poor day with the Murray and Berdych bets but having one in the final game with this break of serve market that really interests me. Rafael Nadal vs Jo Wilfried-Tsonga- Total Breaks of Serve Over 4.5- 5/4 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Price looks too big for me as I'd have had it at 5/6 probably but above evens I'll play. I don't really know the price has gone down on Tsonga given how Nadal has played thus far this week but it's always hard to rule Nadal out when he needs to win. This is essentially a straight knock out match with the winner making it through to the semis. The courts are slower and naturally you'd have to fancy Nadal massively with Tsonga's big shots not being as effective but on form, but Nadal was poor against Fish and Federer blew him away. But how often have we seen Rafa put in a performance when he needs to so he can't be ruled out here, and one shouldn't expect Tsonga to have it all his own way. Not really fussed about the outcome of the match in this one, as long as we see at least 5 breaks in the match. Nadal in his 2 matches so far has had 7 and 4 breaks of serve in his match, whilst Tsonga has had 5 and 8 breaks, so why the price is above evens is anyone's guess. Tsonga has the better serve and on a quicker court Nadal would struggle to break, but the courts are slower this year and Nadal is more than capable of putting pressure when receiving. Nadal's serve isn't the greatest either, especially taking into consideration how he's played this week, so Tsonga should get chances too, and even if we only see a couple of sets here, there should be chances to get those 5 breaks of serve needed.
-
Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals Can't quite believe Murray played that badly. In all honesty I hope he doesn't make it out of the group stages after that. Even went on in him at 5-5 in that second set. :wall
-
Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals Good shout on Tsonga yesterday Atko. The Frenchman will be a threat this week without question. I'll get involved for the first time this week in the last tournament of the year. Taking 2 in both matches. Andy Murray (-4.5 games) to beat David Ferrer- 17/20 Sportingbet- (5/10) Total Breaks of Serve Under 5.5- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (6/10) Fancy Murray to win with some to spare here to get off to a good start. He'll know this is a dangerous group and although I fully expect him to top it and advance, he will need to just be wary of Berdych and Djokovic who can both beat him. However I don't see Ferrer being much of a threat in this group. He lost all 3 group games last year, and although the court is a touch slower, Atko has already mentioned it's still a bit too fast for Ferrer to be at his best whilst we've seen it suits Andy really well. The Scot will have the crowd behind him and he will want to start well with an easy win. Massive advantage in terms of the H2H for Murray, beating the Spaniard 6-2 6-2 last year and covered the handicap in a fair few of the matches against Ferrer and I fancy him to do the same again today. Also like the number of breaks of serve in this match and I really can't see where we're getting 6 breaks from today. I've said I fancy Murray to win this quite well, and I see him winning in straights, and if his serve is working well, despite Ferrer being good on return, he shouldn't get many chances to break. Murray should be all over Ferrer's serve you imagine as it isn't the best, and if Murray wins well, there shouldn't be anymore than 5 breaks of serve in this one. Tomas Berdych to beat Novak Djokovic- 23/10 Sportingbet- (2/10) Over 22 games- 5/6 Sportingbet- (3/10) Really don't know what sort of condition the Serb is in coming into this one so for Berdych to be this high, he has to be taken to be honest. In recent times Djokovic has never had it easy over Berdych anyways and with the Czech playing some good tennis over in Paris, beating Tipsarevic and Murray in the process, he should come into this one with some confidence. He was a massive underdog in his group last year, where he lost to Nadal and Djokovic, but beat Roddick fairly comfortably and that experience from last year should be good for Berdych as he'll know the courts now. Djokovic as we all know has had the year that dreams are made of in the tennis world but as we saw in Paris, he was far from his best with that shoulder of his playing up, so he might be a touch rusty to begin with and I think Berdych will be delighted he plays him first up as he has a worthy chance here. Still think Murray and Djokovic will go through from this group, as I see Djokovic improving as the week goes on and perhaps beating Murray later on in the week, but if he still is looking to return to fitness, Berdych with his power isn't a great matchup for the Serb and with the odds that high, I'll back the Czech with small stakes. Also taking the overs in this one. We say both matches go to 3 sets yesterday, and traditionally the recent matches between these two guys have been quite tight in parts. Berdych has retired in the last 2 matches this year, but before that, the match in Dubai was into its third set, and in Cincinnati they played out a tight first before Berdych couldn't continue. Djokovic has played a fair few 3 setters recently, and although I'm slightly favouring Berdych here, don't see either of these guys running away with it so backing the overs, which also gives us a push if either guy win 7-5 6-4 as well.
-
Re: Darts: Grand Slam of Darts 2011 Thought I'd nailed one of those correct scores tonight and Anderson could have got to 5 legs, then had the throw if he'd taken out D8 in that final leg so a bit frustrating that they didn't come through as they would have left me in profit. +3.83 for the final, giving me a final tournament of -3.93 which was looking far worse at one point. Some great shouts by Kev throughout this week as well, and good job to anyone who ended up in profit. Can't wait for Ally Pally now which I'll be looking to get down to for a couple of sessions :ok
-
Re: Darts: Grand Slam of Darts 2011 Final is upon us then and this could either go really well, or really, very wrong indeed. Phil Taylor (-5.5 legs) to beat Gary Anderson- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (7/10) Phil Taylor (-6.5 legs) to beat Gary Anderson- 6/5 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Total Match 180s Over 16.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Taylor to win 16-6- 11/1 Ladbrokes- (1/10) Taylor to win 16-7- 9/1 Ladbrokes- (1/10) Taylor to win 16-8- 8/1 Ladbrokes- (1/10) Taylor to win 16-9- 8/1 Ladbrokes- (1/10) Only slightly favouring Taylor here :lol. Hard to really see Anderson getting close to him on legs tonight given the form the Power is in. To beat a Lewis averaging in the 3 figures so comfortably is outstanding in truth. Taylor averaged 107 himself and his finishing was exceptional. That 119 in particular really killed Lewis earlier and in the form he's in, you wouldn't bet against him checking out any sort of finish right now. Anderson I gave the benefit of the doubt to earlier with his finishing, but as he showed, he still isn't reliable to finish the leg off. In truth a better and more ruthless player than Mark Walsh would be playing Taylor in the final here really after Anderson won 10 of the last 11 legs in that match with Walsh missing some double. Taylor really won't do that tonight so backing him on the slightly bigger handicaps as I really don't see Gary getting into double figures tonight. Saying that you'd expect him to hit his usual bunch of 180s. He scored 13 in his match against Walsh and he shouldn't have a problem hitting them again tonight. Taylor will hit his fair share as well, with only 5 against Lewis, but he hit a ton of 140s and also covered a fair few to hit 177s or 174s so he should hit some as well and like Kev, I'd say around the 23/24 mark in terms of legs tonight, which should give plenty of time for these two to cover the maximum line. Also taking the correct scores on Taylor as well as if any of them come through, it's a decent profit. Don't see Anderson checking out well enough to get into double figures, with Taylor always likely to put the pressure on the Scot given his woes with the doubles. See Anderson winning a few, but still fancy Taylor to be comfortable tonight.
-
Re: Darts: Grand Slam of Darts 2011 How Anderson covered that handicap in the end I will never know. Almost taught a harsh lesson that guys who can't hit doubles really shouldn't be trusted with a handicap. The 180s in that one sailed through though, but shame Lewis couldn't win a few more legs that would have surely carried through the overs in that one and also perhaps the handicap but Taylor's finishing was sublime. +3.32 for the semis, not nearly as much as I aimed for, taking the overall to -7.76 with the final to play. On that Anderson 180 front, be surprised if it wasn't voided. Price clearly looks misplaced there.
-
Re: Darts: Grand Slam of Darts 2011 Very much my make or break afternoon in terms of the competition where I'm having 4 for the semis. If all goes well this deficit could be turned on it's head so let's see. Will do them in order of the schedule of play. Adrian Lewis (+4.5 legs) to beat Phil Taylor- Evens Ladbrokes- (2/10) Total Match 180s Over 15.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) From the way both players are playing, this could be something very special to see. Both are averaging in 3 figures or round about, scoring heavily and checking out well. Taking Lewis on the handicap first though as I see him winning 12 legs at the very least in this one. If he plays how he did last night or in the early stages against Part or Stompe, he has a real chance of winning this one. It took him a little while to get going with the scoring yesterday but once he did, he found the lipstick with consummate ease and on a regular basis and if he repeats that, even Taylor hasn't got the ability to match him in terms of scoring. His checkout conversion was at 62% as well and if he finishes like that, he has a real chance here. Not brave enough to take him outright for the win, but fancy him to take at least 12 legs here. The 180s line looks low to me here as well. Backed the unders in this market last night with both players and they came through, albeit in the Taylor match narrowly, but this afternoon have to fancy the overs. There were 9 in Lewis' romp over Webster yesterday, with Lewis hitting 5, and it would have been a ton more if Webster won a few more legs given the way Lewis was playing at the end. He'll know that he will have to score heavily from the start so I'd fancy him to hit some big scores from the first leg. Taylor also scored well against Nicholson, hitting 9 himself, and a bunch of 140s to go with it, and given his averages in his previous 2 matches, he'll contribute to this total without a doubt. Both players had it easy in their quarter final matches, and I fancy there to be at least 27 legs minimum here, and that should be enough time to see the two players cover this line. Gary Anderson (-4.5 legs) to beat Mark Walsh- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (8/10) Total Match 180s Over 14.5- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Took this a little earlier and the price has shortened a touch, but think William Hill are still offering the same price. Must be crazy to be backing Anderson on the handicap with such heavy stakes given he might not be able to hit a double, but this line look okay to me. It's a leg higher in most places so for him to win 16-11 or better looks more than doable to me. He blew the handicap for me against Jenkins yesterday after having a couple of darts to win it by a bigger margin, but to be fair to Terry, he played some good darts towards the end, and finished solidly. Anderson though if he finished even marginally better, he would have been extremely comfortable yesterday. He scored like he usually does, heavily and consistently, and that would be my worry for Walsh today, whether he can fend Anderson off enough on his own throw if Gary gets down to the double in 11 or 12 darts like he will in some legs. I'm unsure he will, and although he did score well against Hankey, he could have easily lost that match right at the death, but regardless of that, Hankey's finishing was terrible. 29% on the doubles is really poor and if he finished better, no doubt he'd be in the semis today instead of Walsh. Risk here is Anderson's finishing of course, but I fancy him to be outscoring Walsh too heavily for that to really matter here and even if he misses 3 darts at a double, I'd fancy him to get at least another few darts to finish the legs off, which at times he wasn't able to get against Jenkins yesterday so will take him confidently on the handicap this afternoon against a guy who he's beaten twice already this year, once really comfortably just last month as well. Again the 180s line is low for me. It's even lower than the Lewis Taylor match which I think is debatable to be honest. Granted we are likely to see more legs in that first semi, but if Anderson gets going this afternoon which I have a suspicion he might, this line is far too low. He scored 10 maximums yesterday, along with 28 140s, which shows the scoring power of the Scot, and Walsh was no slouch either, contributing 7 in his match with Hankey. That's 17 in total from the two players in the semis, and I see no reason why they can't repeat that today, perhaps even more from Anderson if he really gets going, but fancy the overs again in this one.
-
Re: Darts: Grand Slam of Darts 2011 Both unders on the 180s came through, but still no luck on the checkout front. Profit of +2 for the evening session, which put together with the afternoon takes my overall to -11.08. Still hopeful of clawing it back in the semis and final, which look set up to be terrific for the spectators. Couple of good calls by Kev as well, making up for the disappointment of the Lewis handicap yesterday :ok
-
Re: Darts: Grand Slam of Darts 2011 Am getting involved in the end with 3 tonight. Quite like the handicaps on Lewis and Taylor but not tempted enough to take them. Adrian Lewis vs Mark Webster- Under 14.5 180s- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Took the overs in the Anderson match earlier which narrowly came through but feel the line is too high in this one. Lewis is more than capable of covering this line by himself if he plays how he did against Stompe but last night against John Part he only managed 2 in 18 legs which is unusual for the world champion. He scored maximums consistently through the group stage but form last night he wasn't hitting them as often as he'd like. Webster covers his throw alot, heading down to the 19s which suggests he won't hit a ton of maximums. He hit 5 against Phillips in 18 legs which isn't the stat of a man who will pound the lipstick. At the matchplay earlier on in the year, there were 28 legs altogether, which produced only 9 maximums, and in the two meetings in the PL this year, there were 5 180s in both. Slightly fancy Lewis but it could go either way tonight, but I'm sticking with the unders on the maximums. Phil Taylor vs Paul Nicholson- Under 13.5 180s- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Same bet, albeit a maximum lower than the previous but still think it's worth taking. Both have played well this week, with Taylor impressing more and more everytime he plays, underlined by him averaging over 110 against Newton and not giving Wes a chance in hell in that one. He only scored 4 180s yesterday though, and we all know with Phil if things aren't right in the 20s, he'll have no problem in switching for cover. Nicholson himself has scored a fair few maximums this week, but only 3 against Beaton is the longer format in a total of 18 legs isn't a great return and if Taylor gets going like he did last night, Nicholson won't have too much momentum on throw and that could see the Power run away with this, so if there aren't a great deal of legs, the line looks pretty big it must be said. Just don't see 14 maximums in this one come the end, so again the unders for me. Phil Taylor vs Paul Nicholson- Highest Match Checkout Over 135.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Am taking one overs tonight though and it involved the checkout market involving these two guys. Either one of them is capable of taking out a big score with Nicholson already taking out a 144 earlier on in the tournament against Magus Caris. Taylor again is more than content to hit the combinations of a 136 or 141 etc, and against a guy who has spoken out against him in the past, I'm sure he'd love to hit a big one to show him why he is the greatest player ever to have played. Nicholson has hit a 170 against Taylor before, and Taylor has covered this line is a couple of meetings as well, so I'll take the overs here.
-
Re: Darts: Grand Slam of Darts 2011 Handicaps are massively frustrating now, with Anderson missing 2 darts to cover it, only to fall a leg short. +1.53 for the afternoon, not sure if I want to get involved later yet, will have a look in a bit.
2012 PDC World Darts Championship
in Darts Predictions
Posted
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship They will probably just say it was an error, which it obviously is but got odds of 5/4. Anyways I'm with Kev on Munch for the maximum bet. Kevin Munch Most 180s- 11/4 Sportingbet- (2/10) Really can't add too much to what has been said. Ovens scores consistently but hits a lot of tons and 140s, and not a great deal of maximums. Munch was pretty impressive in the preliminary round and he looked good around the lipstick so the price on the German to hit the most 180s looks misplaced so I'll back him to do just that.