fishy25
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Actually taken a few others in the WTA that I forgot to write up. Bojana Jovanovski (-3.5 games) to beat Casey Dellacqua- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) I backed the Serb a couple of weeks ago when these two met and I really see no reason why she won't cover this handicap. I've spoken a lot about her and how I fancy her to break into the top 30 at some point in the foreseeable future and given she seems to play her best stuff down under, this handicap looks on the low side to me. She took a set of Zvonareva 12 months ago which shows her talent, and in both of the meetings between her and Dellacqua, she's won with ease. The Australian will have home support but that shouldn't be enough as she really struggles away from the challenger events so I'll back the Serb to cover the handicap and make it 3 wins in a row. Petra Cetkovska to beat Ayumi Morita- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) The fact that Cetkovska hasn't yet played this season really doesn't put me off here. As Psycho has mentioned, Cetkovska has a good serve and is pretty powerful which doesn't bode well for Morita who does struggle with players such as Cetkovska. The Czech had a really good season last year, and made it to the final in New Haven, beating Radwanska, Bartoli, Li and also Morita comfortably in the process. Morita won't have too much confidence I can't imagine given she has lost both of her matches this season but the problem lies in Cetkovska's power and that's the main reason I fancy her to prevail here. Kimiko Date-Krumm vs Eleni Daniilidou- Tie Break in Match- 11/4 Bet365- (2/10) Now given the last tie break bet I took in the WTA really didn't work out, don't be surprised if this ends 6-1 6-0 :lol However Date-Krumm has a tendency to play some lengthy matches and a lot of tie breaks which makes me feel this price is worth a punt. One of her most memorable matches from last year was her defeat to Venus Williams at Wimbledon in which there was a tie break and if you were to look through the veteran's results from the season, you'll notice she is no stranger to the 7-6 scoreline. Daniilidou has been involved in a tie break in 4 of her 5 matches this season so again she's familiar with them and given these stats, I'll have a little nibble at the chance of a tie break being played here.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Yeah sorry mate, doing these write-ups as soon as I've woken up has taken it's toll. Thank's for pointing that out. But yeah I'm just not convinced by Schiavone in the early rounds given her results. Think the Spaniard should be good to cover the handicap.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Had a look at the prices now and taken a fair few for the women. Haven't had a proper look at the men's side of things so I'll do those later. Don't think I've ever taken this many for the WTA in round one but the card looks pretty decent. Caroline Wozniacki (-6.5 games) to beat Anastasia Rodionova- 4/6 Coral- (4/10) Agree with Psycho on this one but I'm taking the handicap although I do expect the unders to come through as well. I don't see Wozniacki having too many problems in this one as her defensive skills should be the undoing of the Australian here. Rodionova can hit winners, but also be horrible at times and really go for balls which are nowhere near in the slot to be hit. That suits Wozniacki greatly and with her natural game being to return as many balls as possible, that will frustrate Rodionova in the long term and her morale should really drop. If Caroline gets in front here, it's hard to see Rodionova mounting a fightback so have to take the number one to win this comfortably like she did in their previous meeting where she won 6-2 6-0. Laura Pous-Tio (+7.5 games) to beat Francesca Schiavone- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (3/10) This line for me looks huge for the Italian to cover and it's basically suggesting Pous-Tio won't win 5 games in the match which looks strange to me. Granted she hasn't played this season and her best results come on the clay, but saying she can't hold 5 games is a bit of an insult. For one Schiavone doesn't ever seem to do 'easy' in the grand slams, and she was involved in some real epics last season against the likes of Marino, Paszek and Scheepers amongst many others so in my opinion you cannot back her in the early rounds to play her opponent off the court. She may well win easily in 2 sets, but 5 games isn't a lot for the Spaniard to win here. She managed to cover this handicap against the likes of Stosur, Azarenka and Goerges last season and I see no reason why she can't take 5 games off Schiavone. Laura Robson (+5.5 games) to beat Jelena Jankovic- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Have a bit of interest in this match as a Brit and think Robson can put up a decent fight like she has shown she can do in the past. She qualified with ease for the tournament, not dropping a set in her 3 matches and this could be the season where she makes a shoot up the rankings and breaks into the top 80 or so. She'll have to improve her challenger results to do that but at the grand slams she usually raises her game when she plays the better players. She managed to beat Kerber last year at Wimbledon before pushing Sharapova all the way and gave Ivanovic a good game in Tokyo so she clearly has it in her to perform well. Robson also performed well against Jankovic back in 2010 at Wimbledon, losing 6-3 7-6 which should give her some confidence coming into this one. Jankovic certainly isn't the player she used to be and you always feel she is vulnerable with whoever she plays. She can still pull out some good results but she is far more erratic than she used to be so Robson should be able to create some chances for herself. She'll be able to create some angles with her lefty serve so I'll back her on the handicap here. Bethanie Mattek-Sands (+6.5 games) to beat Agnieszka Radwanska- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Actually think this is a decent matchup for the American and she should be able to push Radwanska in parts now she has a couple of wins under her belt. She missed virtually all of the American hard court season last year which was a shame as that's usually where she has her best results but she beat Pironkova at the Hopman Cup and easily beat the Australian youngster Barty over in Hobart so there's signs she has recovered from that shoulder injury that kept her out of the USO series. Radwanska is actually one of my favourite players on the WTA tour but I'm never totally convinced by her in the grand slams. She's never made it past the quarter finals in any of the 4 tournaments and for a player with her quality, you would have to say that is an underachievement given she can beat anyone on her day. Last year is a prime example of this, as she fell victim in the second round at both Wimbledon and the US open in just the second round, whilst at the Aussie Open she almost fell at the first hurdle to Date-Krumm so there's enough to suggest that she is vulnerable in the early stages of the slams. Mattek-Sands is certainly no mug and can trouble the likes of Radwanska, and she is certainly capable of keeping a set close if not pinching it and if she does that, she should cover the handicap. Varvara Lepchenko (+5.5 games) to beat Daniela Hantuchova- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Backing another underdog here on the handicap as the American comes into this match off the back of impressing in qualification. She dropped just 7 games in total in her 3 matches so she clearly has taken to these courts well which is a good sign. Last season she performed well against the likes of Wozniacki and Wickmayer and took a set of Kirilenko in Sydney so it looks as though she is playing well this season. Hantuchova has also started the season really well after making the final in Brisbane but she's another good player who struggled in the slams last season. She was beaten in the first round her 12 months ago, likewise in the US open so whether that will play on her mind a bit I'm not sure. I do expect her to win though as she should have some confidence given her results from the past couple of weeks, but given Lepchenko has won 3 matches on these courts with consummate ease, I fancy her to keep it tight in parts with the Slovak and if she does that, she should cover the handicap.
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Yeah the Harms result was a tad annoying but I guess I can't complain too much as it was a similar happening to that of the Lewis-Wade match, albeit to a lesser extent. With regards to Hankey, I'm not convinced how well he will go over in the PDC. I have no doubts he'll be alright on the floor, but on the stage I really can't envisage him going past the quarter finals at best. The guys in the PDC won't be 'scared' of him like some in the BDO and won't give him any ounce of respect. He starts to slowly and misses to many doubles for me and you get punished for that against the top players. All of those factors on top of the more intense crowd leads me to think he may struggle but I'll be happy to be proved wrong ;) In terms of the final tomorrow, currently I'm standing on +26.51pts with all the outrights settled. I will get involved with tomorrow's match as I have no running bets going, but really hope Kist wins it for Kev and Russ' sake, GL guys. I'll have 4 in total. Tony O'Shea vs Christian Kist- Over 10.5 sets- 4/6 Blue Square- (4/10) Christian Kist Most 180s- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Under 18.5 180s- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) Highest Match Checkout Over 132.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) I'm expecting this final to be better than the PDC one between Hamilton and Lewis to be honest. Both players were involved in epics in the semi finals and perhaps both slightly fortunate to reach the final but that's in the past now. I do fancy this to be a relatively close final though between two guys who have played really good darts this week. Both have scored pretty heavily and checked out okay for the majority so both should be able to hold their throw quite consistently and I don't see either player winning any better than 7-4 in this one. Now the two 180 bets I've taken are for a couple of reasons. Christian Kist has pounded the lipstick all week and although he didn't manage too many today, you can't read too much into that given who he was playing. Hankey was extremely slow when collecting his darts which didn't exactly help Kist's rhythm. O'Shea won't be anywhere near as slow as Hankey and will play his own game rather than the player. We saw against Alan Norris what happens when Kist is allowed to throw quickly and that should be what happens tomorrow. I also fancy Kist given he has actually played a match today where they had to play more than two sets before a break. Tomorrow there won't be a break every two sets and O'Shea has yet to play under those conditions and if he is throwing cold for a spell, he usually needs the break to regroup but he won't get that tomorrow so I'm unsure how many maximums he will hit. Kist should hit a fair few more maximums than he did today given the speed of both players and at odds against, I fancy him to outscore O'Shea in that department. However this 19 180s line looks high to me. I've spoken about the no break after two sets and after a while I expect that to take it's toll. Don't be surprised if both players hit 10 maximums in the first 3/4 sets but after that it should settle down as the match goes on and the pressure and intensity grows. We saw a fair few loose darts from O'Shea today and he wasn't scoring as well as he had hoped so he'll be looking to improve on that front in the final. I'm not saying either player will be tired after their matches today but as the match goes on, when it comes to the 6th/7th sets, I don't see many maximums being hit so I'll take the unders. I do fancy one of these guys to nail a decent checkout though in the biggest match of both players' career. O'Shea has already nailed a 170 finish this week and checked out well, including some crucial finishes in the latter stages against Wesley Harms today. Everyone has been waiting for the pressure to get to Kist but it just doesn't look like happening and his finishing today was probably the best it's been in the tournament. Think he missed the D18 on a 156 and if he gets a finish where he can put two darts in the lipstick he has every chance to take out a big finish, something which has been lacking from his game this week. O'Shea is more than capable of hitting a couple of big checkouts as well given how he has been finishing and with the two players combined, in a good final on the eye, I see at least one big finish tomorrow.
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Yeah fair point, I'm not factoring my argument into the wider picture. My point derives a lot from hindsight as well looking back as it's debatable whether I'd bring it up if he had hit D15. Point taken on board :ok
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 That's a valid point Perry but surely leaving D20 would heap more pressure on the opponent than leaving D15? Granted he would have had only 2 darts to hit the doubles with, but wouldn't any darts player prefer 2 darts at tops rather than 3 at D15 where you're under a ton of pressure if you miss the first dart anyway? My main criticism would be that he didn't expect to come back when you should always think you're opponent is going to miss? You're in a far better position to comment on that than I am given your experience, but that is my thinking.
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Yeah I've calmed down a bit and can be a bit more mature (Can still tell I'm at uni at times) :lol I'll just deal with today's results before I go onto your question mate. How the hell Hankey blew it I really don't know but to be honest in a way I can't wait until he moves to the PDC and gets creamed week in week out. The professionalism of the guy is appalling at best. Aside from the darts he just throws for the sake of it, and the one he just lobbed at the board in the final leg, there was a leg in which he was on 210, and hit a 180 rather than go for a 170 despite hitting bull for fun. He then had a shot due to Kist missing doubles to which he missed D15 and lost the leg. To me, that's almost on a par with just lobbing darts at the board. In the PDC he will get creamed, happy to argue against anyone who thinks otherwise. With regards to Harms, I can't fault him really given how he's performed this week. He could have actually won that match 6-2 if he had hit his doubles with O'Shea there for the taking. You sort of knew once they had that break at 5-5 O'Shea would take it. The breaks really didn't help the Dutchman at any point during the match. He took the set before the break at 0-1 and 1-2 against the throw so his momentum was interrupted. But at 5-5 and the break and new board, you always felt that would help O'Shea more unfortunately to my despair :lol Let's not forget that Kist shout by Russ and Kev though that looks to be the shout of the year so far ;) Really hope he does it for you guys and gives you a terrific return for that superb shout. Anyways with all the rants over and my blood pressure just about calmed down I can think straight. Thanks for the kind words mate, and personally I choose not to lay my picks. I could have laid both Hankey and Harms before the final but I usually trust my instincts and stick with them unless I see reason not to. I thought both Kist and O'Shea would win today, but I felt my two picks weren't without a chance and so it proved so I tend to just let them play out. Not sure about the others but that's my preference :ok
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 :puke X2. Literally.
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 In the practice area, as they were doing the interview with Alan Norris and Kist's girlfriend, you could see Kist sipping a bit of beer in the background :lol
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012
I will post some selections this evening' date=' but where is Atko? :([/quote'] He's stepped back a bit from PL unfortunately as he hasn't got as much time to add his input as he used to. He's still a regular to the forums though and chips in when he has the time. Is a shame he's not as active though. -
Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 And taken one early for the first round. Lukasz Kubot vs Nicolas Almagro- Tie Break in Match- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) Price should be a fair bit lower by my estimations. I remember watching Kubot come back from 2 sets down to beat Almagro at the French last year in a match where Almagro choked really badly. There were 2 tie breaks in that match on the clay and the harder courts should lead to at least 1 tie break here I'd imagine. Kubot has a big serve and will look to serve and volley a lot whilst he won't do a great deal on return so if he serves well it should lead to some tight sets. In 3 of the 4 matches between these two, there has been a tie break in every match whilst in the other there was a 7-5 which shows how tight this could be. Just to highlight my point further with stats from last year, Almagro was involved in a tie break in each of his first 3 matches before Djokovic dispatched of him. Like I said, I'd have this price down more at 1/2 to be honest so I'll get on the 5/6 given here.
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 I hope so too Perry :lol but I'd be very surprised if we weren't watching Kist play O'Shea tomorrow. I was so tempted to back Kist with the handicap but I'm not going to go against my original pick so I'm just going to see how this first semi plays out I think and maybe get involved with the second semi later. GL with that 180s bet Russ.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Any regulars to the grand slam tennis thread will know how I have a tendency to take the following bets. Now I have never ever called one of these right in this market so let's hope 2012 can break that curse. Milos Raonic to reach the last 16- 5/6 Sportingbet- (3/10) The young Canadian really shot to fame at last year's Aussie Open and given the conditions of the court it's easy to see why. His bullet serve and powerful forehand are one of the best in the game, whilst his backhand and consistency has developed and improved as last year went on. He didn't end the season as well as he would have liked but he's already kicked this year off with a tournament win in Chennai where he beat Tipsarevic in the final which should have given him confidence coming into the slam. He made the fourth round last year so he has plenty of points to defend this time around and looking at his draw there's no reason why he can't repeat his performance from 12 months ago. His route to the fourth round looks something like Volandri-Petzschner-Roddick, although his third round opponent could be any one of three guys out of Roddick, Hewitt or Haase. I'd probably favour Roddick out of those 3 but whoever it is, I'd make Raonic favourite. Now he's had the experience of playing on the ATP for a year, he should really fancy his chances of going into the second week of a slam and I fancy him to do just that down under this year. Aleksandr Dolgopolov to reach the last 16- 5/6 Sportingbet- (3/10) Another guy defending a ton of ranking points is the Ukrainian as he made the quarters in 2011 so he'll know he has to have a decent tournament here to maintain his ranking. His draw to me looks a pretty good one until he perhaps faces Federer but I don't see him getting beat before then. His route will most likely be Jones-Hanescu-Tomic as I don't see Verdasco beating the Australian. He could be the first test for Dolgopolov but given the Ukrainian has beaten him in all 3 of their recent matches, I see no reason why he shouldn't be able to make it 4 in a row. He'll be favourite for every match and given the points he is defending, I fancy him to go well this week and make the last 16 at the very least. Janko Tipsarevic to reach the last 16- 5/4 Sportingbet- (2/10) Not sure where we are getting odds against for the Serb here but I'll take it. He had a sensational 2011, winning 2 tournaments and getting to various quarter finals and semis as well during the year. There's really not alot to trouble the Serb until a potential 3rd round match against Gasquet as he'll probably have to beat Tursunov and young Duckworth in rounds 1 and 2 which you'd expect him to do with ease. Gasquet actually hasn't got the easiest of draws considering he will have to beat Seppi and probably Youzhny so there's no guarantees he'll even get to the third round. If he did, I'd have the Serb as favourite though to record his first win over the Frenchman. He had little problems over in Chennai until he couldn't break Raonic in the final but he comes into the tournament in good form which he has carried over from last season. He only made the second round here 12 months ago after Verdasco beat him, so in his mind he should be thinking he can gain quite a few ranking points over the next 2 weeks which should keep him focused and motivated. Looking at his draw for the first few rounds I see no reason why he can't do just that. John Isner to reach the last 16- 2/1 Sportingbet- (2/10) Now I'm not sure how big John will fare over the next week or so but these odds look too high to me and strikes me as a bit of value. His preparation isn't ideal coming into the tournament, having been beaten by Bobby Reynolds last week in Sydney but he does usually up his game for the slams. Despite that loss, 2/1 for the big American to win his first 3 matches just stands out to me. There's nobody he can't and perhaps shouldn't beat IMO. It will look something like Mitchell-Nalbandian-Lopez and the threat there is Nalbandian but Isner is fully capable of beating the Argentinian. Both matches between the two players have been close and since making the semis back in 2006, Nalbandian really hasn't done much in the AO. He has been beaten by Lu and Berankis in the past 2 years so Isner shouldn't be fazed by playing him I don't think and there's always a concern with the fitness of the Argentinian as well so there's no guarantees on that front for him. If he does beat him, Lopez could be waiting for him in the third round who like Isner has lost his only match this season and has never gone past the 3rd round at the AO. If Isner beats Mitchell and Nalbandian, he should have some confidence in his game by then and if his serve is working well, he has every chance to beat the Spaniard. The more I look at it this price is too big to pass by in my opinion and I'll back Isner with a small punt here.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 :welcome CultofTennis. Was thinking about Lu myself considering Mayer's dismal record in grand slams. Probably wait until the handicap lines are about. GL with your bets though :ok
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Guys can we have some reasoning behind everyone's bets? Don't know if it's just me but whenever I come into the forum and see just a bet without any explanation, it just strikes me as completely pointless. If someone wants to follow, why would they just place the bet purely because it's been stated in the thread? Just a couple of lines make a huge difference and you don't need to go on for hours upon end like I do. If you don't want to explain your bets, you should just have your own thread in the Glory Hunters Section. If not, feel free to write them but give a little reasoning behind the bet. Anyways that's my rant over, here's to a profitable tournament :ok
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Much better night for me personally in terms of the match bets and Hankey won his quarter taking my overall to +29.51pts with Harms and Hankey in the semi finals. However I'm not confident with either to be honest as O'Shea and particularly Kist look a few levels above both IMO. Unlucky Kev and Russ with Atkins. His finishing went missing tonight but in truth he could have easily won given the way Hankey was playing. The outright the both of you have with Kist looks a great shout though. The forum has 3 semi finalists though which is pleasing. Wouldn't it be lovely if we saw a Kist-Harms final ;)
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012
That loss to Baghdatis doesn't really put me off as he is a tricky opponent to play at the best of times and always seems to bring his game for the better players. I was tempted by Murray but the fact he'll have to play Djokovic in the semis puts me off a bit. As I've said though, he usually needs that kick up his arse to perform well in the slams and his draw may well just do that. Personally staying clear of that top half though.Fishy, done Del Potro as an outsider for the Aust. open myself, was very impressed with him in the Davis Cup final and he looked to be back to his best. Although he lost to both Ferrer & Nadal he could have easily won both matches on another day and I immediately backed him at 25-1. The draw was fortunate for him avoiding bigs guns such as Novak, Murray, Tsonga etc and agree with you that I think if he gets Rafa he will beat him. His loss to Baghdatis in Sydney surprised me, i must admit I never saw it, but would put it down to rustiness with it being only his 2nd match this year and Baghdatis had already played 5 hard matches. Was thinking of backing Murray outright as he finished last season well before his injury at the O2, already has a title under his belt and out of the big 4 I would say he is most in form. However I don't like the look of his draw and this has given me reservations???? Decisions Decisions??? Still think i'll back him with Bodog @ 6-1! -
Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Thanks to Harms landing a semi final place, he lands a 20/1 quarter bet for me and with last night's results, leaves me on +9.41. Really struggled to land anything substantial or consistent in the match bets though, hopefully that will change tonight. I'm effectively on Hankey to beat Atkins at 9/2 so hopefully the Count performs on Friday the 13th. Taking a few others as well. Alan Norris vs Christian Kist- Over 7.5 sets- 10/11 Blue Square- (3/10) Over 12.5 180s- 5/6 Blue Square- (3/10) Christian Kist Most 180s- 11/10 Sportingbet- (4/10) Ultimately in the end I expect Kist to have a little too much for Alan Norris and make it through to the semis but I expect this to be perhaps the closest out of all of the quarter finals played. Kist has been the most impressive player throughout the tournament, averaging in the high 90s in both of his matches and his finishing has been relatively solid. There were signs though against Geert de Vos that when he is under a bit of pressure, he will give some chances out and I expect Norris to step in like he did against Dean Winstanley. He has the scoring ability to match Kist you feel and if anything he will be marginally more consistent with the scores, but the Dutchman has the ability to raise his game and take a set out in no time at all. Norris isn't the kind of guy to give up on anything though and for those reasons I see this match being won by no worse than 5-3 by either player. In a lengthy encounter that I expect to see here, both players can cover this line as they have been pretty good on the 180s front this week. Norris has hit 13 in total whilst Kist has 11 so I'd expect that trend to continue and the 13 maximums needed looks pretty good for both players to cover. I will back Kist as well at odds against to hit more 180s though as I feel he will need to just step his game up at some point to see Norris off. He hit 2 more 180s than Norris in the previous round, despite playing one set less and once he is on a roll, he finds the lipstick with ease and I expect him to carry on his recent heavy scoring and pound the lipstick tonight. Ted Hankey vs Martin Atkins- Under 31.5 legs- 4/5 Blue Square- (4/10) Under 12.5 180s- Evens Blue Square- (4/10) Hopefully Hankey wins this and I think he will provided he doesn't act like a complete plonker on stage but hopefully after beating Waites he won't. I'm not saying Atkins won't win a couple of sets with these bets but the reason I prefer the unders on the legs rather than the sets is the constant shifts in momentum. The thing with both of these guys is that once they are a couple of legs behind in a set, they aren't the best fighters on the BDO ranks and they are more than likely to just give that set up. For that reason, there should be a fair few 3-0 sets to both players by my estimations that that only helps the legs bet. We'll see both players throw as many hot darts as well as cold in this match so it's more than conceivable that we could see 3-0 0-3 over the course of two sets and the pendulum swinging in both directions. For that reason, even if there are 8 sets, the match could still go under 31 legs and I'll hope it does just that. Also fancy there to be no more than 12 180s in this match. Hankey started like a house on fire against Scott Waites with his scoring but a little disappointingly, he only hit 6 in the end come the final darts whilst Atkins hit just 3 in his win over van de Wiel. Both of these guys can really pepper the lipstick when they get going, but as I've mentioned, I expect both players to fire hot and cold at times during the match. When throwing coldly, we could well see a couple of sets that don't have any 180s and given the odds are at evens, it's lured me in to have a punt at the unders here.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 I'm going to kick off with a couple of outrights for the men. Rafael Nadal to win Australian Open- 7/1 Coral- (2/10) E/W After seeing the draw for the top 4, I've fallen slightly in love with the Spaniard's draw. There's no Murray or Djokovic or Tsonga even in the bottom half of the draw, whilst Federer and Del Porto aren't in Nadal's quarter either so where this price has come from I'm not sure. I'm guessing it's ultimately down to the form that Rafa has shown towards the back end of last season and at the start of 2010 but I don't go along with that. Granted he was comprehensively beaten by Ferrer, but in truth I don't really pay much attention to that tournament as it's the first of the year. Now although Monfils beat him in Doha, I felt there were signs that Nadal was starting to discover some form. His forehand wasn't as effective as it can be, but his backhand impressed me and it looked a lot more assured I felt. Now if he can get some wins under his belt and gain some confidence, without the likes of Djokovic and Murray to worry about, we could see him go well I feel down under. As I've said, his potential route to the semis looks pretty appealing. I have it down as something like Qualifier/Haas/Ljubicic/Isner/Berdych. Whether he will even have to play Haas or Isner I'm not sure as both players' haven't been great so far in their early matches, whilst I'm not even convinced by Ljubicic or Berdych at the minute and from the head to head, Nadal shouldn't be worried about either guy if he has to play them. Now if he gets to the semi finals like I expect him to, it will either be Federer or Del Porto you think, I personally favour the later there but I'll come to him in a sec. I don't know what kind of shape Federer is in ahead of the Aussie Open and with him having that back problem, how much that will hold him back I'm not sure so feel there's a risk there with Roger. Now Del Porto could be the first test Nadal faces if the two meet in the semis. The Argentinian has had Nadal in trouble both at Wimbledon and in the Davis Cup last year so that certainly won't be easy but I'd still fancy Nadal to win again there. Then the final, many fancy it to be Djokovic and that's hard to argue with given how the Serb has played over the last 12 months or so but Murray's draw may well suit the Brit. He will have to beat some tricky opponents to reach the semis, not least Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but the thing with Murray is he will usually play his best tennis when playing the top players so his draw may well bring the best out of him. You'd still have to back Djokovic though and no doubt the Serb would be favourite but Nadal will want revenge for last year, as he lost all 6 matches against Djokovic, including 2 on clay as well as the final at Wimbledon and at the US open. Thing with Nadal and grand slams is you just can never write him off and a lot of people are doing that this year which I feel is a dangerous thing to do. We've seen him raise his game when it really matters and no question he will want to prove that he still right up there with Djokovic. His draw doesn't loo particularly taxing and that should give him confidence, so I'm happy to take a punt on the Spaniard winning his first slam since the French last year. Juan Martin Del Porto to win Australian Open- 20/1 Coral- (1/10) E/W My other outright is going to be in the hands of the Argentinian who I feel is due a really good grand slam run. He failed to make it past the third round of any of the slams last year but I feel after having a year on the tour back under his belt, he is in a better position this time around. He was actually pretty unlucky with his draws last year, getting Baghdatis early on in here 12 months ago which is never easy early on, whilst he was beaten by Simon at the US open but that was an extremely tight match. The thing I liked though were the signs and promise that Del Porto showed that made me think that a really good slam is just around the corner for him. He gave real problems to Nadal and Djokovic at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and with his draw this year, he shouldn't be fearful of anyone until perhaps the quarters if not semis. His potential draw looks something like Mannarino/Kavcic/Mayer/Fish/Federer/Nadal. Now I wouldn't be worried about any of his potential first or second round opponents, although Mannarino may be competitive but he doesn't have any weapons to trouble Del Porto. Mayer is never easy to play but whether Del Porto will actually have to is dubious. He was struggling with a groin injury so he may not even get to the third round but I wouldn't worry too much with the German never one to really perform in the slams and Del Porto should have far too much there. Now Mardy Fish in the quarters could be the first test for our man here but I'm not the biggest fan of the American away from his native courts. He usually shows he best form later on in the season over in America, and he hasn't made it past the third round of the Aussie Open since 2007 so I'd favour Del Porto once again there. Now Federer in the quarters will be where most expect him to fall but I'm not convinced. I think out of the top 4, Federer is the one who is at most risk of falling before the semis. Over in Doha he withdrew due to injury before facing Tsonga, and even against Seppi he just didn't look right as the match went on so this back problem may be more of an issue than he first showed and Del Porto could well expose that if he faces the Swiss. Fed will definitely have to play either Tomic or Dolgopolov you feel as well which won't be easy so it will be interesting to see how he goes against either of those guys. Like I say though, I think the bottom half semi draw will feature Nadal and Del Porto. That will be a potential laying opportunity but if this does happen, I won't be doing that as I see it more of a 55/45 sway in favour of Rafa so either guy could win. Del Porto has troubled Rafa big time last year and he may be due a win over the Spaniard. Either way though, if the two guys meet in the semis, then we'll be guaranteed a final spot and as we know anything if possible in the final so I'm happy to back Del Porto to fire hot over the next couple of weeks at these odds which looks high to me.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 For the WTA lovers, here's the draw for the them as well :ok Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) Anastasia Rodionova AUS Ashleigh Barty AUS Anna Tatishvili GEO Pauline Parmentier FRA Alla Kudryavtseva RUS Alize Cornet FRA Monica Niculescu ROU (31) Lucie Safarova CZE (24) Christina McHale USA Qualifier Marina Erakovic NZL Qualifier Petra Martic CRO Qualifier Jelena Jankovic SRB (13) Kim Clijsters BEL (11) Qualifier Stephanie Foretz Gacon FRA Elena Baltacha GBR Arantxa Rus NED Lesia Tsurenko UKR Qualifier Daniela Hantuchova SVK (20) Anabel Medina Garrigues ESP (26) Eva Birnerova CZE Patricia Mayr-Achleitner AUT Olga Govortsova BLR Sofia Arvidsson SWE Olivia Rogowska AUS Ksenia Pervak KAZ Na Li CHN (5) Victoria Azarenka BLR (3) Heather Watson GBR Casey Dellacqua AUS Bojana Jovanovski SRB Anne Keothavong GBR Mona Barthel GER Ayumi Morita JPN Petra Cetkovska CZE (32) Flavia Pennetta ITA (19) Qualifier Alberta Brianti ITA Irina Falconi USA Iveta Benesova CZE Mathilde Johansson FRA Aravane Rezai FRA Shuai Peng CHN (16) Francesca Schiavone ITA (10) Laura Pous-Tio ESP Anastasiya Yakimova BLR Romina Oprandi ITA Kimiko Date-Krumm JPN Eleni Daniilidou GRE Polona Hercog SLO Julia Goerges GER (22) Yanina Wickmayer BEL (28) Galina Voskoboeva KAZ Tsvetana Pironkova BUL Sania Mirza IND Qualifier Simona Halep ROU Bethanie Mattek-Sands USA Agnieszka Radwanska POL (8) Vera Zvonareva RUS (7) Alexandra Dulgheru ROU Evgeniya Rodina RUS Lucie Hradecka CZE Ekaterina Makarova RUS Tamarine Tanasugarn THA Johanna Larsson SWE Kaia Kanepi EST (25) Dominika Cibulkova SVK (17) Magdalena Rybarikova SVK Rebecca Marino CAN Greta Arn *** Iryna Bremond FRA Barbora Zahlavova Strycova CZE Tamira Paszek AUT Serena Williams USA (12) Sabine Lisicki GER (14) Qualifier Shahar Peer ISR Isabella Holland AUS Sloane Stephens USA Silvia Soler-Espinosa ESP Chanelle Scheepers RSA Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS (18) Angelique Kerber GER (30) Bojana Bobusic AUS Stephanie Dubois CAN Elena Vesnina RUS Mandy Minella LUX Qualifier Gisela Dulko ARG Maria Sharapova RUS (4) Samantha Stosur AUS (6) Sorana Cirstea ROU Qualifier Urszula Radwanska POL Qualifier Sara Errani ITA Qualifier Nadia Petrova RUS (29) Roberta Vinci ITA (23) Alexandra Cadantu ROU Madison Keys USA Jie Zheng CHN Jelena Dokic AUS Anna Chakvetadze RUS Virginie Razzano FRA Marion Bartoli FRA (9) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova RUS (15) Klara Zakopalova CZE Kateryna Bondarenko UKR Vania King USA Kristina Barrois GER Michaella Krajicek NED Lourdes Dominguez Lino ESP Ana Ivanovic SRB (21) Maria Kirilenko RUS (27) Jarmila Gajdosova AUS Shuai Zhang CHN Aleksandra Wozniak CAN Irina-Camelia Begu ROU Carla Suarez Navarro ESP Vera Dushevina RUS Petra Kvitova CZE (2)
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May as well get this thread open for the first slam of the year. For the first time in a while we have a potential semi of Nadal-Federer whilst Murray has a really tough quarter with Troicki, Monfils, Simon and Tsonga all in that 2nd quarter with Djokovic likely to await the winner in the semis. Will post the draw up now and then bets away :ok Novak Djokovic SRB (1) Paolo Lorenzi ITA Santiago Giraldo COL Qualifier Tatsuma Ito JPN Potito Starace ITA Nicolas Mahut FRA Radek Stepanek CZE (29) Milos Raonic CAN (23) Filippo Volandri ITA Lukas Rosol CZE Philipp Petzschner GER Cedrik-Marcel Stebe GER Lleyton Hewitt AUS Robin Haase NED Andy Roddick USA (15) Janko Tipsarevic SRB (9) Dmitry Tursunov RUS Qualifier James Duckworth AUS Mikhail Youzhny RUS Qualifier Andreas Seppi ITA Richard Gasquet FRA (17) Juan Ignacio Chela ARG (27) Michael Russell USA Igor Kunitsyn RUS Pablo Andujar ESP Matthias Bachinger GER Ryan Sweeting USA Rui Machado POR David Ferrer ESP (5) Andy Murray GBR (4) Ryan Harrison USA Xavier Malisse BEL Edouard Roger-Vasselin FRA Michael Llodra FRA Ernests Gulbis LAT Daniel Gimeno-Traver ESP Alex Bogomolov Jr. RUS (32) Viktor Troicki SRB (19) Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP Guillermo Garcia-Lopez ESP Mikhail Kukushkin KAZ Thomaz Bellucci BRA Dudi Sela ISR Marinko Matosevic AUS Gael Monfils FRA (14) Gilles Simon FRA (12) Qualifier Julien Benneteau FRA Karol Beck SVK Joao Souza BRA Matthew Ebden AUS Stephane Robert FRA Kei Nishikori JPN (24) Marcel Granollers ESP (26) Jesse Levine USA Frederico Gil POR Ivan Dodig CRO Qualifier Ricardo Mello BRA Denis Istomin UZB Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (6) Mardy Fish USA (8) Gilles Muller LUX Alejandro Falla COL Fabio Fognini ITA Albert Montanes ESP Pere Riba ESP Philipp Kohlschreiber GER Juan Monaco ARG (25) Florian Mayer GER (20) Yen-Hsun Lu TPE Qualifier Steve Darcis BEL Qualifier Blaz Kavcic SLO Adrian Mannarino FRA Juan Martin Del Potro ARG (11) Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR (13) Greg Jones AUS Tobias Kamke GER Victor Hanescu ROU Kenny De Schepper FRA Sam Querrey USA Bernard Tomic AUS Fernando Verdasco ESP (22) Jurgen Melzer AUT (31) Ivo Karlovic CRO Carlos Berlocq ARG Qualifier Eric Prodon FRA Andreas Beck GER Qualifier Roger Federer SUI (3) Tomas Berdych CZE (7) Albert Ramos ESP Olivier Rochus BEL Qualifier Sergiy Stakhovsky UKR Qualifier Qualifier Kevin Anderson RSA (30) Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (21) Benoit Paire FRA Marcos Baghdatis CYP Benjamin Becker GER Jeremy Chardy FRA Grigor Dimitrov BUL Lukasz Kubot POL Nicolas Almagro ESP (10) John Isner USA (16) Benjamin Mitchell AUS Jarkko Nieminen FIN David Nalbandian ARG Flavio Cipolla ITA Nikolay Davydenko RUS Leonardo Mayer ARG Feliciano Lopez ESP (18) Ivan Ljubicic CRO (28) Qualifier Qualifier Donald Young USA Tommy Haas GER Qualifier Qualifier Rafael Nadal ESP (2)
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Forgot to congratulate Kev for his full house last night, great shouts mate :clap Onto the first two quarter finals then and I agree with virtually everything that has been said by Russ and Kev. I'm effectively on Harms to win at a very juicy 20/1 in a match he's favourite for so hopefully he can win. I am taking 4 match bets though, 2 in each. Wesley Harms to beat Paul Jennings- 4/5 Sportingbet- (5/10) Over 9.5 180s- Evens Ladbrokes- (4/10) Although I have the outright for Harms, I was expecting a far lower price so I'll back him additionally at this price. Kev has noted the 5/6 price available at Coral but their site is down and I can't be bothered to faff about so I'll take the 4/5, which is marginally lower. I can't really add to much to what's been said about these two players and the main reason I really fancy the Dutchman is because of the doubles. Jennings in both of his matches has been prone to missing a fair few doubles whilst Harms has been pretty solid in both of his matches. Harms averaged just under 91 against Robbie Green and that average would have been nearer the 96/97 mark but his final set wasn't the greatest but it was enough which is the crucial thing. He managed to outscore one of the heaviest scorers in the BDO which was impressive for me and although Jennings will match his scoring for chunks of the match, when it comes down to the doubles, I'd always fancy Harms to be more clinical. I do think we'll see double figures for the maximums though. Both players have scored 6 180s so far, and 4 each in their second round matches. Harms was consistently finding the lipstick with ease against Robbie Green and I expect him to repeat that against Jennings whilst the Brit actually scores really well and attacks the red bit, but is let down by his doubles. I think Harms will win this but I think that will be the result of Jennings missing doubles in parts, but both can score well and over a possible 9 sets, I fancy us to see at least 10 180s here. Martin Adams (Most 180s) vs Tony O'Shea- 11/8 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Highest Checkout Over 130.5- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) I was so close to backing O'Shea to win this one and if he checks out like he has done I think he will but i'm sticking to just these 2. I'm very much with Russ on Wolfie to hit more maximums here and with his main priority being to keeping straight, he should rack up quite a few against O'Shea here. He hit 5 against Gary Stone in just 4 sets which isn't a bad return for any player, and given O'Shea managed just 2 in 5 sets, at these odds I have to back Adams. The checkout bet let me down in both of these guys' second round matches but I'm still backing it again. Both players covered this checkout line in their first round matches and given I expect this match to be a real thrilled, there should be some decent finishes on show. I don't see how we won't see at least 7 sets here, and I expect a fair few of those sets to be really tight and will need something special to break throw perhaps. O'Shea will know perfectly well that the only way he is going to win this one is by checking out well like he has been doing whilst Adams will want to put O'Shea in his place. Just feel the line is still too low as a 136 or a 141 for either guy doesn't look too taxing so I'll back the overs.
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Re: Darts: BDO World Championship 2012 Not quite a full house for me tonight Perry given I will win the award for worst shout of the tournament with that 180s bet in the Kist-De Vos match. Think it was lost in the second set so I'll take the trophy for the worst bet of the tournament ;) Aside from that, everything else came through though with a slight dampener in the last match with Winstanley blowing his lead to kill the outright I had on him. Heading into the quarter finals though, my overall stands at -9.09pts. However I still have outrights going for Hankey and Harms for both the quarter and outright at decent prices so hopefully I can overturn that loss starting tomorrow. Wouldn't it be lovely for the thread if it was a Harms-Kist final :loon
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Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan
:welcome Good info for the bet, hope it comes through :okHi guys , I've really been checking up this forum for a while now ,and I have to say ,great community ,and great tipsters.I've decided to contribute here as well with a few tennis tips ,hopefully succesfull ones . So here it goes. First game that caches my attention is a doubles one ,in Auckland between the austrian doubles Marach/Peya vs. spaniards Verdasco/G.G.L.The austrian players ranked 17th and 18th in the world are the first seeded pair in New Zealand and have defeated in the first round another spanish pair ,Ferrer/Montanes ,in a fashionable manner 6-2 ,6-4, breaking serve 4 times and haveing been broken once in 9 service games.In fact it was the only break point they faced.Verdasco/G.G.L. dispatched in a easy manner the south-american pair Bellucci/Giraldo 6-0,6-3 but they're no doubles specialist as you well know.In fact the spanish pair will be playing each other in the singles draw earliear ,and although doubles games are not as solicitating as the ones in the singles , I don't think either of the spaniards wishes to extend their run in the doubles draw and face more fatigue ,espescially with the AO around the corner. On the other hand I'm positive that the austrians will like to get some games under their belts ,having played only one game previos to their victory here,in Brisbane where they lost to Paul Hanley/Jamie Murray.So I'm going for Marach/Peya to win here ,at 1,83 with WilliamHill with 8/10 stake. Good luck ,and I hope I haven't made any errors with my post .If I have feel free to correct me ,as I am new in the process of learning how things work with posts here.
Any reasoning for this bet mate?Simona Halep to beat Yanina Wickmayer 2:1 - 7.00 Bet365- (3/10) :cow vamos nos Boobs :cow
Tennis: Australian Open 2012
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Final 2 for me. Not really much that stands out to me with the men to be honest. Tomas Berdych vs Albert Ramos- Under 27.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Don't see Berdych having too many problems here. He started the season well with 4 wins out of 4 in the Hopman Cup and although he lost to Tomic last week, Ramos really hasn't got any weapons in his game like Tomic to trouble Berdych. The Spaniard spends most of his time on the clay where he plays those longer slower point, something Berdych won't allow. The Czech should just dictate this match from point one, and it's hard to see how Ramos will stay close to him. He was hammered 6-2 6-1 by Tsonga in Doha which shows how he hasn't got the game to stay with the top guys and with this line covering a 6-3 6-3 6-3, I don't see Berdych winning any worse than that. Mardy Fish vs Gilles Muller- Over 38.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) If both guys win at least a set here, this line should be covered I'd imagine as I expect most of the sets to be pretty tight. Fish has the better all round game but if Muller serves well, he's extremely hard to break as Murray and Nadal have found out in the past 12 months or so. Interestingly, carrying on from last season, the last 5 of Muller's matches have gone to 3 sets which shows how his games go on for a bit. Fish hasn't started the reason particularly well and has had some real battles at the Aussie Open down the years so Muller should be able to hold his own for the majority. I'm not ruling out a Muller win here, but as I fancy a few of the sets to be close and a potential couple of tie breaks to be played, think I'll stick with the overs in this one.