fishy25
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Tried to look for a bit of value in the women's final as I'm not totally sure what way it will go. If Sharapova plays how she did against Kvitova she'll lose in straights but she has the experience of a grand slam final which could be crucial. If I had to back anyone it would be Azarenka but not confident enough in the outright. Am taking a couple of bets in the final though. Maria Sharapova Under 2.5 aces- Evens Ladbrokes- (3/10) Maria Sharapova (-4.5 km/h) fastest serve to beat Victoria Azarenka- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Can't add much to what IAG has said about Sharapova and her serve as he's mentioned all the relevant stats. She hasn't been hitting them for fun exactly and has only managed to hit a maximum of 3 in any of her matches. Against Kvitova it was the Russian's serve that let Kvitova back into the match and almost lost it for Maria so I'm not sure how much confidence she'll have behind it tomorrow. Like IAG has said, the slow courts don't help either girl in the ace department and Azarenka returns well even if Maria finds some decent first serves. I do think the Russian is overpriced with this serve speed handicap though. Early on in the tournament, she wasn't serving particularly quickly and Azarenka was actually firing her serve in quicker than Maria but Sharapova's speed of serve has picked up. Against Makarova and Kvitova, she hit a 173km/h serve and before that, she was hitting serves of 176 and 174km/h and it she hits those kind of speeds, she should cover the handicap. Azarenka's quickest serve over the past couple of weeks has been a 178km/h serve but since the fourth round, she hasn't mustered a serve of over 170km/h so whilst her serve speed has declined a touch, Sharapova's has increased so hopefully that trend continues in the final. Sharapova I still expect to throw in tons of DFs, but I'd fancy her to hit a couple of pretty quick serves somewhere in the match whereas I think Azarenka will be a little more solid and play the percentages a bit more. Certainly wouldn't be having this handicap above evens IMO so I'll have Sharapova with small stakes on the handicap. Actually having my first doubles bet of the tournament as well. L Paes/R Stepanek to beat B Bryan/M Bryan- 2/1 Bluesquare- (3/10) Think Paes and Stepanek look extremely underrated going into the final here as the two brothers really haven't looked all that impressive in the tournament. They haven't hammered any of the pairs that they have played and a 6-0 set lost to Fleming and Hutchins really is pretty shocking to be honest. They've also been taken to deciding sets in their last two matches against Fyrstenberg/Matkowski and Lindstedt/Tecau and had to work really hard to win those matches and from those results, I'm not overly convinced about their game at the minute. Paes/Stepanek have lost just the one set so far en route to the final, that coming in the semis against Nestor/Mirnyi who are an extremely good doubles pairing. That win should have given them a real boost ahead of this final, and Paes is looking to complete his collection with the Aussie Open and with the experience of both Paes and Stepanek, I feel they have a real chance here. They narrowly lost against the Bryans a couple of weeks back in a couple of tight tie breaks and with the American brothers seemingly struggling to find top form this week, I'll back the experienced duo of Paes and Stepanek to take the title here.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Gutted with a capital G that I missed the final 2 sets of the match earlier. Managed to watch the first 3 but then had to rush off to uni. Kept checking my phone every 2 seconds to see the score :lol From what I saw, God knows how Murray didn't win. Djokovic looked like he could well retire when I was watching it, really looked like he could collapse at any moment. If someone could shed some light into the final 2 sets that would be great as I would have fancied Murray massively after going 2-1 up. Watched the highlights and looks as though Djokovic found a second wind but to be honest, I'd rather Nadal was facing the Serb than Murray. The tournament looked to have been made for Murray with his draw and Djokovic being well below par and I'm pretty confident Nadal will beat Djokovic now after seeing how the Serb played. A couple of really good finals though in store. With regards to the bets I was extremely lucky. Mentioned in my post that I'd accidentally placed the wrong bet and took the 'overs' instead of the 'unders' on the Djokovic double faults. Well I tried to ring last night and cancel the bet, only to be told that their customer service was down and they couldn't do it until the morning if I rung then. Obviously being the good student I am, I wasn't up till around 9/10ish when the match had started. I did however send an email last night telling them what had happened, but seeing as it was a winner, they let me have the winnings which was extremely fortunate. They did try and make up for it by settling the total breaks of serve bet as a loser which it obviously wasn't so I've been onto them about that and it's been settled as a winner now. Very very lucky to be perfectly honest, as I didn't envisage either guy throwing in anywhere near the amount of DFs that they did. I'm not going to include those winnings from the Djokovic DFs mistake into my P/L as it's a bit stupid to do so. With it being the lengthy match it was though, I secured some profit from it and now stand on +26.17 for the tournament with Nadal into the final. Will deal with the women's final in another post later when I've had a proper look at it.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Livescore Thread Not sure Djokovic will finish the match here if Murray takes this third set. Looks physically and mentally spent.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Hoping with the early start I should be able to watch a fair chunk if not all of this match before my lectures tomorrow. Depending on the quality I may have to go in a little late :lol I'm taking 4 in the match though, mostly involving these 'special' markets Ladbrokes make available for the latter stages of grand slams. Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray- Over 37.5 games- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Total Double Faults Under 8.5- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Novak Djokovic Under 3.5 Double Faults- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Over 8.5 Breaks of Serve- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Murray does look a bit overpriced to me in this one but haven't enough confidence in the Scot to back him in any way, shape or form. I do however expect at least 4 sets minimum in which we should see at least 38 games. In my opinion you can't put too much emphasis on that final here 12 months ago as Murray is playing quite a bit better than he did then as in all honesty, he didn't have to play brilliantly to reach the final last year. I have been relatively impressed with Murray though but this will be his first test of any magnitude. He couldn't have actually wished for a better draw to be honest, as he's avoided Monfils and Tsonga who were the only two guys that could have given Murray a match in his quarter. To have the draws he's had is well a walk in the park in truth and whether that is a benefit for the Scot I'm not sure. I think he could have perhaps done with being pushed a little further as Djokovic is better than all the guys Murray has faced put together really so he'll need to adapt his game and stick with the Serb from the first game, something he failed to do 12 months ago. There were signs against Ferrer and Hewitt to be honest that Djokovic isn't quite as invincible as he has been. Whether he is struggling from breathing problems I'm not sure but from the way he finished against Ferrer, it doesn't look to be a massive hindrance for the Serb. If Ferrer however had a better serve, he could have well taken a set off Djokovic and I think Murray has every chance to tomorrow if his serve improves like I expect it to do. As long as we see 4 decent sets minimum like I expect we will, this line should be covered. Now these double fault lines look way out of place to me. Even if this match lasted around 5 hours, I still wouldn't expect us to see 9 double faults in truth. Murray has only served 12 DFs in his 5 matches with Djokovic even less than that so the averages would suggest this line is too high. The threat to this line some would say perhaps is Murray as his first serve was missing against Nishikori. I'd imagine he has practiced a lot on his serve though over the past day or so and I don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as it was in the quarters. Another reason why we shouldn't see a lot of DFs is because both guys won't want to hand their opponent any free points on return so I would expect both guys to be pretty cautious with their second serve and not go for too much power on it. Now being the stupid idiot I am, I actually made the wrong bet with the Djokovic DFs and backed the overs by mistake so I'm going to ring them once I've finished this. As I'm changing it, don't be surprised if Djokovic serves about 8 DFs now ;) In all honesty though I don't envisage him serving 4 doubles in the match. He's usually pretty reliable with his second serve and the most doubles he has served so far is 3 in a match. Now you may argue that this match will be far more difficult and grueling for the Serb than his games so far but that shouldn't make too much difference in truth. In actual fact, as I've mentioned he'll be more cautious with his second serve in the tight moments against Murray, whereas in his previous matches, he's been so far ahead it really didn't matter if he went for it a bit more. He won't against Murray and regardless of his breathing problems or the outcome of this match, I don't fancy Djokovic to be throwing in too many DFs tomorrow. Lastly I'll back the market I really tend to like in the breaks of serve. Although I expect Murray to serve a lot better than he did, he's up against a far better returner and it needs no pointing out that Djokovic will create chances. Murray is always vulnerable to go missing for a service game once in a while and get broken by anyone really, let alone the best player in the world so Djokovic should break a fair bit. To be honest, the Serb has had his serve broken a wee bit over the past couple of weeks as well, moreso than he usually does anyway. Hewitt managed to do it 4 times and Ferrer did it twice, and you'd expect Murray to match Hewitt's performance on return at the very least. He'll have a lot more power and muscle than Ferrer had in the rallies and Murray being the great returner he is, should be able to create some chances as the match goes on. He managed to break Djokovic a few times last year even when he wasn't playing that well and this time round he should fancy himself a bit more with Lendl in his corner. There were 9 breaks in the Fed-Nadal match earlier with both guys missing quite a few break points. Both Djokovic and Murray should convert more than the two guys today and even if we only see 4 sets, it gives this line a good chance of coming through.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Quality match there between Rafa and Federer but Nadal deserved the win. Pleased I got up to watch it now on my day off with some of those shots in the 3rd and 4th sets phenomenal. Sharapova beat Kvitova as well and slightly unfortunate that she didn't cover the handicap with the nice price attached to it. However, really good day/night for me, with +8.08 coming out of it, leaving me on +25.07 for the tournament with Rafa into the final as well :ok
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Livescore Thread I like the fact that each sport has its own section. So tennis/darts/cricket etc rather than just a general other sports section. Then the PL football having a different page for each match I think is useful. But tend to agree with you on the 'Free Bets' and Bookmakers specials on the right hand side. Would be better if you had the option to hide it I reckon.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Livescore Thread I'm still not sure about the site. Think it's just that it's new and takes some getting used to.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Livescore Thread :lol was worrying a bit there when it went to 7-5. Yeah Federer does have a bit of a resigned expression on his face. Not sure if he thinks in his own mind that he can come back here. More to do with facing Nadal than anything else.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Livescore Thread Against any other player, you wouldn't see Federer break only to get broken back straight away on numerous occasions. Rafa definitely does something to Federer when they play eachother. Partly on the court and partly in the head.
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Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Livescore Thread What a game that was by Nadal to break. Super match this.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 +2.72 for me last night with Murray winning comfortably whilst the Ferrer handicap was voided. Thought he would have covered it though when the third set started as he only needed a couple of games but wasn't to be. Takes my overall to +16.99 for the tournament. Good call from Dylan again last night :ok Onto the semi finals now then and all 4 matches look potential crackers. I'm still on Nadal outright so hopefully he can carry on his success against Federer and the match between Clijsters and Azarenka I simply can't call. Reasons to take both girls, as well as the unders and overs so staying well clear of that match. Am interested in the other women's semi though. Dealing with the Nadal-Fed match first. Rafael Nadal (+3.5 games) to beat Roger Federer- 5/6 Coral- (4/10) This has the potential to go all the way IMO and feel the price on Nadal is slightly too high. I'm already hoping he pulls through and makes the final but I am going to take a piece of the Spaniard on the handicap as it's a game or so higher than most bookies have it. Federer is rightly the favourite but personally I can't be having him around the 1.65 mark to beat a guy who has really owned him for a fair while now. He's hardly been tested so far in the past couple of weeks and he easily beat Del Potro which I was surprised about as I thought he may be caused some problems. It wasn't to be though and apart from that one set in which Karlovic had a set point in, he's always been comfortable at every stage in his matches. Nadal though should be right up for this and really take the game to Federer. He wasn't spectacular by any means against Berdych but to be honest, even if he went a couple of sets down which he could have done, I still would have fancied him to come back and pull through given his competitive nature. In sets 3 and 4 he was on top of Berdych for the majority and came through comfortably and with the courts playing slow, you really can't rule him out here. I don't care what talk there was about injuries with Nadal, they really haven't affected him in the slightest and although he hasn't found his top game yet, a semi final of a slam against his biggest rival may just force him to raise his game a couple of levels. We have to remember that last year, Nadal probably would have won 3 of the grand slams but for Djokovic so it's a huge myth when people talk about the Spaniard not being as good as he was. Federer on the other hand isn't quite at the level he was but is still the 3rd best player in the world but from the previous matches between these two, he never seems to do it against Nadal. Rafa has won 11 of the last 14 matches between the two which tells its own story really and I always feel whenever I watch Federer play Nadal, it's the Spaniard's to lose rather than Federer's to win. You can completely disregard that match at the o2 last year as Nadal was injured but that could easily spur Nadal on a touch more. I don't expect either guy to win 3-0 really, but as you may have guessed, think Nadal will eventually prevail. I've got the outright so just playing a touch safer with the handicap as even if Federer does win, very rarely has he covered this handicap in the past and given I expect this to be a close run thing, I'll take the handicap offered on Nadal. And the women's match. Think it's fair to say I fancy Sharapova and there's a trend in my bets :lol Maria Sharapova to beat Petra Kvitova- 5/4 Coral- (3/10) Maria Sharapova (-3.5 games) to beat Petra Kvitova- 12/5 Ladbrokes- (2/10) Maria Sharapova to Break Serve First- Evens Ladbrokes- (3/10) I personally can't call the other semi final between Clijsters and Azarenka but whoever wins out of those two, I expect them to face Sharapova in the final. In this one I would have had the prices at around 5/6 for both of them and probably still taken Sharapova to win so anything above evens is a bonus in my eyes. The Russian could have easily been in for a tough time against Makarova, fresh off the back of wins over Zvonareva and Williams but she won that one fairly easily and all week she has played some really good tennis. The only time she went off the boil a bit was when she was 3-0 up against Lisicki in the first set but from the second set onwards, she raised her game again and saw the German off. Her serve though has been particularly impressive in the tournament and isn't throwing in too many double faults which she is heavily prone to and when she serves well, she is extremely hard to break. That bodes well as she should be able to get a look in on Kvitova's serve and use her power to create chances and put the Czech under a fair bit of pressure. Kvitova still has a tendency of going missing and losing her focus a bit and although she is capable of hitting winner after spectacular winner, she can suddenly destruct and play some horrid stuff. In truth she should be beating Errani far more convincingly than she did, as the Italian really has no weapons to trouble the Czech but she made a ton of unforced errors which doesn't exactly fill me with confidence about her chances in this one. Sharapova's been the far more consistent player of the two this week and with her serve and groundstrokes working well, I think she'll win this one and make up for that Wimbledon final defeat last year so I'll back the Russian and have a small punt at her winning better a little more comfortably than most think. I am backing her also to break serve first as she has been the better starter out of the two over the past couple of weeks. Her serve has looked good and as I've mentioned, she is keeping the double faults down to a minimum and her second serve has been effective. Kvitova usually takes a little bit of time to get going and Sharapova has the power to really put her under some pressure when returning. I see no real reason why the bookies favour Kvitova to break Maria's serve first given how both girls have started their matches in the tournament thus far so I'll hope Maria gets an early look on the Czech's serve.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Mixed bag from me last night with Del Potro getting hammered killing the outright I had on him and Nadal just failing to cover the handicap. Overall now I'm sitting on +14.27 for the tournament with Nadal in the semis. Was tempted to back both of the underdogs in the women's matches tonight with the handicaps but I'm not entirely convinced. I think they both will cover them but then again Sharapova and Kvitova have the potential to hammer them as well. Am taking some interest in the men's quarters though. David Ferrer (+8 games) to beat Novak Djokovic- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) Ferrer has consistently improved with every match he has played in the tournament and since he struggled against Sweeting, he's seen off Chela and Gasquet in straight sets and given he hasn't lost a match technically "this season", it shows what good form the Spaniard is in. Djokovic is still playing some good stuff but for the first time against Hewitt, we saw how he still can have his moments where his game drops if his opponent keeps going and doesn't roll over. The likes of Lorenzi, Giraldo and Mahut didn't really try and fight at all but Hewitt did and in David Ferrer, you have perhaps one of the best fighters in the game. He'll be in Djokovic's face all the time and will really fight for every point and return as many balls as he can. The slower courts also favour the Spaniard as even when Djokovic was winning every trophy he set eyes on, Ferrer still took a set off him and ran the Serb close when they met on clay in Madrid so it shows Ferrer has the game to trouble him in the slower conditions. The Spaniard's game is consistent and is a real fighter which just says to me that this line looks a touch high. He could well take a set of Djokovic as Hewitt did but even if he doesn't, as long as he keeps this close like he should do in my eyes, he should cover the handicap here. Andy Murray vs Kei Nishikori- Under 30.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) Quite what I'm doing backing the unders in a Murray match as far on as the quarter finals is a disaster waiting to happen really but in truth this is a horrible matchup fro Nishikori. He doesn't possess any real weapons to hurt Murray in anyway and particularly on serve, Murray should be able to create chances in most service games on return. Tsonga made a ton of unforced errors the other day but that is one thing Murray won't do and he should be in control for the majority of the rallies. The fact that Nishikori has played 3 successive 5 setters now as well as doubles should play into Murray's hands and he should take advantage of any fatigue creeping into Nishikori's game. Providing Murray doesn't lose his concentration, this should be a doddle for the Scot. The handicap is usually a better choice if you're looking to back Murray but he really shouldn't be dropping a set here and he knows he'll want to stay fresh for when he faces Djokovic in the semis. Murray beat Nishikori 6-3 6-0 at the back end of last season and providing he is focused, he really shouldn't be letting Nishikori in to take a set off him here.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Really frustrating last night and eventually ended with a small loss but god knows how. Djokovic seemed to be cruising for the best part of 2 and a half sets and Sharapova had a point to cover the handicap. Add to that Kukushkin retiring in the third set when Murray was cruising just highlighted what a frustrating day of tennis it was. I'll update the P/L tomorrow and I'm not going to do a writeup for my bets tonight as the PL site is going to be down for a few hours I think so just going to get the bets in here for everyone to see. Juan Martin Del Potro vs Roger Federer- Over 37.5 games- 4/5 Coral- (4/10) Both playing well at the minute and Del Potro has the game to stay close to Federer and don't expect too many breaks in this one. Hopefully the Argentinian comes through it as well which he has a chance of doing. Rafael Nadal (-5.5 games) to beat Thomas Berdych- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) Head to head speaks volumes in this one. Nadal has gone from strength to strength and looks as though he isn't being hampered at all by injury. If he stays solid, he should win with plenty to spare. Victoria Azarenka vs Agnieszka Radwanska- Over 20.5 games- 5/6 Coral- (4/10) Line looks too low to me. Only a couple of the matches in the past between these two haven't covered this line and both coming into this one off a couple of easy wins so confidence should be high for both. Caroline Wozniacki vs Kim Clijsters- Under 22.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) Previous matches between the pair don't support this bet but Clijsters should either win in 2 or lose in 2 I'd imagine depending on the extent of her injury. She'll have to be aggressive and keep the rallies short and don't see this going to a third set.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Stranger things have happened. None spring to mind but sure there must be some ;)
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012
If this comes in I'll never return to the forums again :lol Really don't see it mate. Djokovic is, IMO a couple of levels above Nadal and Federer let alone anyone outside the top 4. Hewitt looked knackered at the end of that Raonic match and you could see that in a couple of his shots whilst he was serving the match out. Raonic's groundstokes are nothing compared to Djokovic's and hard to see Hewitt taking a set, let alone the match. GL with both bets though :okLleyton Hewitt to beat Novak Djokovic - 29.00 Betfair As was the case when I backed Lopez last night, small stakes will be used and I don't expect that this bet will win. However, I have been impressed with Hewitt so far in this tournament. It's hard to know how the match against Roddick would have turned out had he not been injured, but I'm not so sure Hewitt would definitely have lost if Roddick had been fit. Roddick has been on a downward slope for a while now, and that could have been a great leveller for Hewitt. I also think Hewitt's win against Raonic has been downplayed somewhat. Raonic is one of the top young players in the world and did well at this tournament last year, and Hewitt showed great fight and nous to beat him. He was able to break Raonic and that isn't an easy thing to do. There is every chance that fatigue will play a part in this match, and Hewitt did have to work very hard against Raonic, but I'm hoping that the adrenaline of the occasion will help to cancel that out. Hewitt will know that he probably won't get to play too many more matches like this, as he has suffered in recent years with injury. I think this kind of match is very important to Hewitt, so I don't take too much notice about his form on the regular tour. I think he will be very motivated for this match and the support of the crowd will certainly help him. I'm hoping he can stay close to Djokovic early on, and if he can who knows what might happen after that. Djokovic is obviously a terrific player and the chances are this best goes down, so fingers crossed for a shock result. -
Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Would be wrong not to get involved with the women tonight as well especially with Sharapova and Lisicki playing ;) Maria Sharapova (-4.5 games) to beat Sabine Lisicki- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Would have backed Sharapova even with a 5 game handicap to be honest as she's looked IMO, the most impressive women so far ahead of Azarenka, Clijsters and Williams. She has hammered Dulko, Hampton and Kerber and she looks to be playing somewhere near her best once again and when she is like that, she's a joy to watch (for tennis reasons as well) Lisicki hasn't been anywhere near as impressive and Kuznetsova should have beaten her really but for a choke. A 3 set win over Voegele and beating an out of form Peer isn't spectacular in the slightest and at the minute Sharapova is playing a few levels above the German. Sharapova beat her in straight sets twice last year including at Wimbledon where Lisicki was playing really well. As IAG has said, Sharapova is playing better than she did in London whilst Lisicki has declined a touch and I'd fancy the Russian to win this well. Serena Williams (-6.5 games) to beat Ekaterina Makarova- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Makarova has had a couple of good wins over Kanepi and Zvonareva but both players weren't at their best and Makarova stepped in. To be honest she was struggling against Zvonareva in the first set before coming back and if she starts like she did in that one, she really isn't mounting a comeback against Serena. The American has been ruthless so far without actually playing that well believe it or not. She's still quite a way from her best in my opinion and she will need to up her game to beat the likes of Sharapova and Azarenka. The way she has been playing should take care of the Russian though I believe. Li hammered Makarova back in Sydney and although she beat Kanepi and Zvonareva in straight sets, two victories over top players can wear you out mentally and Williams should pounce on that. The Russian has actually performed well against the top players in the WTA but playing Williams in a grand slam is on a whole new level, even if she isn't playing at her best. Their last meeting ended 6-3 6-2 to the American and a similar score today would cover the handicap. Sara Errani to beat Jie Zheng- 9/4 Bet365- (3/10) Took this price this morning and it's shortened a tad to evens now but even that price I feel is too big for the Italian. You can still get (4.5) games handicaps on her at decent prices if you want but I haven't backed many dogs outright yet so I'll back Errani to win. It's understandable to have Zheng favourite but her price looks way too short to me. Yes she hasn't lost a match this season and yes she hasn't had much trouble in beating Keys, Vinci and Bartoli but with these prices, it's like she should be winning comfortably. I really don't agree with that assessment. I backed Errani to beat Cirstea and she did so after dropping the first set before Cirstea was hampered a touch through injury but it has to be said that the Romanian was playing extremely well in that first set. She was hitting winners on both lines but Errani stuck to her guns and defended well throughout and should have perhaps taken the tie break in truth. Now people may say that the injury was the only reason Errani won but that's bollocks to be honest. I still would have fancied her to win that one as Cirstea wouldn't have kept that performance up for another set or two. Although she hasn't won as many matches as Zheng this season, she has only been beaten by Kerber and Kuznetsova, both of whom have started the season well so there's no shame in those defeats. She's already beaten Wickmayer and Petrova comfortably this season though so she should be confident coming into this one and feel it's a genuine chance of making her first quarter final. Zheng is playing far better than she was early on last season and is in good form but when these two women met before, Zheng had come off wins against Rezai and Dementieva and still Errani crushed her 6-1 6-2 when she was actually a bigger dog than she is today. That result proves she can turn the odds on their heads and beat Zheng and that's what I think she will do again today.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Some really really crappy calls from me last night, emphasized through Goerges being as much use as an inflatable dartboard. She was shocking. Thankfully Nadal, Federer and Azarenka's matches went the way I thought they would, giving me +0.49 for the day and +19.42 for the tournament. Still have Nadal and Del Potro outrights going as well with both guys looking pretty good so hopefully they can make up one of the 2 semi finals. Some good calls by Dylan last night :ok Like the card quite a bit more tonight and taking a few. That line you got IAG on Sharapova looks criminal to be honest, would be on that like a rash if I had an account with StanJames. Novak Djokovic (-9.5 games) to beat Lleyton Hewitt- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (6/10) Traditionally Hewitt has been able to keep it close with the Serb but Djokovic's game is at a much higher level now than it was in the previous meetings between the two. He's looked unstoppable this week and despite Hewitt beating a couple of good players in Roddick and Raonic last week, this is a massive step up for the home boy. To be perfectly honest, if Roddick wasn't struggling with injury, there's a good chance Hewitt would have been gone and Raonic didn't impress me too much last week either but Djokovic right now, is playing somewhere near to perfection. Losing just 10 games in 9 sets in a slam is nothing short of sublime and it's hard to see Hewitt troubling him despite having the crowd firmly behind him. He looked pretty exhausted towards the end of that Raonic match and given he doesn't play a great deal throughout the season, I'm not so sure how well he'll hold up when it comes to the second and third sets. Djokovic will be as fresh as ever though and although Hewitt could keep it close in the first set, I'd fancy Djokovic to physically and mentally wear the Aussie out and take a couple of sets by a couple of breaks or so which should cover the handicap here. Andy Murray (-9.5 games) to beat Mikhail Kukushkin- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) Really liked what I saw of Murray against Llodra both in the match and then in the interview after where he even managed to smile and have a couple of jokes which I think is something the Scot should do more. He did play extremely well though during the match and never looked like he wasn't going to win with ease and should be fresh and ready to play Kukushkin here. He shouldn't be suffering from fatigue in the slightest which is always a good thing for the Scot as we've seen in the past how clumsy his game is when he isn't completely fresh. Kukushkin however is coming off the back of 2 grueling 5 setters against Troicki and Monfils and I don't care who you are, those matches will take their toll. Playing one 5 setter you can get away with, but 2 in a row is not the preparation you want coming into a match against one of the best returners in the game and Kukushkin I think will suffer quite a bit. Upsetting Troicki and Monfils in the way he did are fine efforts but this is on a whole new level when you're 100%, let alone below that. He did take a set of Murray in Brisbane in Murray's first match of the season but this is a completely different situation. The Scot looked to be really enjoying his tennis against Llodra and I think now the crowd has warmed to him a bit more, it may well benefit him and his game and think he'll dispatch of Kukushkin with relative ease here. David Ferrer (-3.5 games) to beat Richard Gasquet- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Know a lot of people who fancy the Frenchman here but I'm with Ferrer and I think the Spaniard will be too consistent for Gasquet here. The head to head speaks volumes here, with Ferrer winning 5 of the 6 matches between the two, all in straight sets which can't be ignored here in my opinion. Gasquet has got better as the tournament has gone on and easily beat Tipsarevic but the Serb wasn't anywhere near his best in that one and I'm not still convinced with Gasquet's consistency as he is still prone to throw in a couple of games where he just doesn't look interested. Ferrer however is the complete opposite and fights for every point which is where the problem lies for the Frenchman. He started slowly against Chela but once he found his feet, he comfortably saw him off and I fancy him to play even better in this one. Playing Ferrer is a bit like Murray, in that he will tire you out all round and that is not something Gasquet is entirely comfortable with. The head to head really slows that fact and I'd expect Ferrer to carry on his dominance over the Frenchman and make the quarters of another Aussie Open. Kei Nishikori (+6.5 games) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- 4/6 Bet365- (4/10) Not sure the reason for this pretty hefty handicap other than Tsonga's result against Gil but from watching that match, Tsonga's performance was nothing to write home about. He won well but in truth he didn't have to do that much as you always felt if Tsonga stuck about long enough in the rallies, the unforced error would come from Gil and more often than not it did. He also missed a couple of smashes which caused him to get broken a couple of times so the scoreline does flatter Tsonga a touch, especially as he offered a fair few break points to Gil in the third set but he couldn't take them. Nishikori however is a few classes above that of Gil on the hard courts and has actually beaten Tsonga in both of their previous meetings, including a few weeks back. He's extremely fit so I wouldn't worry too much about his lengthy matches with Ebden or Benneteau as he played doubles yesterday so I'd think he would have withdrawn if he had any problems with fatigue. Nishikori worked hard in the off season and given the quality of players he has beaten this year, it looks to have payed off. I certainly don't think Tsonga will hammer him in this one and he could well make a real game of it Nishikori so I'll back the man from Japan to go well in this one.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Final 3 for me then. Tomas Berdych (-6 games) to beat Nicolas Almagro- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) Siding with Berdych here as he's got better everytime I've watched a bit of him this week. He was rusty and well poor in his first match against Ramos, but he dominated Rochus and eventually came through comfortably against Kevin Anderson. Once Berdych gets some momentum behind him in a slam, it's usually left to the big 4 to take him out and I expect Nadal to do that in the quarters. I'd fancy him to have too much for Almagro on the hard courts though and despite the Spaniard coming through against Wawrinka comfortably enough, he is always capable of letting his head drop and throw in a shocker of a performance. If Berdych gets going early on, I don't see Almagro staying close to him for the duration of the match and even if he drops a set, I'd fancy Berdych to win at least one well and that should cover the handicap. Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Juan Martin Del POTRO (Atko ;))- Tie Break in Match- 6/5 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Price has slipped a bit since I took this a little early. Think it's somewhere around the evens mark now. Anyways must say I'm a little surprised people are backing Del Potro to win this one comfortably. I do think he will win and set up a quarter final match against Federer but there's no reason to suggest the German won't be competitive here. If I'd have to take a player on the handicap it would be Kohlschreiber but I'm instead backing a tie break in this match. In 3 of the past 4 meeting between these 2 guys, there has been a tie break, including both matches from last season. Del Potro is understandably the favourite but Kohlschreiber has been in really good form over the past couple of weeks and took a set of Nadal in Doha. Del Potro looks to be getting better after he wasn't great against Mannarino or Kavcic but he beat Lu easily which suggests the Argentinian is finally finding his feet in the tournament. However Kohlschreiber has played some good stuff over the past couple of weeks and should be able to stay close with Del Potro in my eyes. The German has already played a tie break in each of his 2 completed matches this week and I'm backing these two to play out another one in this match. Final one for the women. Julia Goerges vs Agnieszka Radwanska- Over 18.5 games- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) This line just looks low to me. The scoreline in Radwanska's last match really flattered her as Voskoboeva missed a whole load of chances to break and get herself back into the match before letting her head drop a touch which allowed Radwanska to sail through in the end. The Pole really hasn't looked anything special when I've seen her this week though. Against Mattek-Sands she could have easily been beaten and as I've said, Voskoboeva missed chances. The times when Radwanska has struggled have been when her opponent takes balls on and that is what Goerges will do. The German has the game to hit winners on both sides which should cause her opponent some problems. She hasn't really started the season well by any means, by she can be a dangerous opponent to play for any of the best players on the WTA. Goerges covered this overs line against the likes of Sharapova, Williams and Ivanovic last year and if she sticks to her normal game and is solid enough, I see no reason why we won't see at least 19 games in this one.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 With all of the last 16 outrights settled, I'll be looking to claw back the losses from them in the matches tonight. Taken 6 in total. Feliciano Lopez vs Rafeal Nadal- Under 31.5 games- 5/6 Sportingbet- (5/10) To be truly blunt about this one, Rafa owns Lopez really. He has won 8 out of the 10 matches between the 2 and has never dropped a set in any of his wins over his fellow compatriot. I don't think he will again today and I really liked the way Rafa played against Lacko, who really didn't play badly at all. Nadal defended well though and put most of the bad balls away whilst his serving was extremely good. Lopez has been involved in some tight matches this week, echoed by that marathon match against Isner in which the Spaniard came through in 5. As we know the American isn't the greatest returner in the world and relies on his serve pretty much to get him through matches. Nadal is completely different though and will be able to return far more balls on Lopez's serve than big John managed. What really stood out to me was amount of double faults Lopez had in that match against Isner and if he doesn't cut them out, he'll really struggle from the off against Rafa. Definitely prefer the unders to the handicap here as Lopez's serve should see him hold a fair bit but I see Nadal being able to break at least once in each set. This line even allows for a tie break but I'd expect Nadal to be pretty comfortable throughout and cover the unders here for a third match in a row for me. Roger Federer (-7.5 games) to beat Bernard Tomic- Evens Coral- (4/10) Wasn't expecting this line, nor this price so happy to back Federer here. Tomic did well to beat Dolgopolov the other day but I wasn't actually that impressed with the way he played. He needed a couple of tie breaks to get past the Ukrainian but it was more Dolgopolov playing badly in them more than Tomic playing well. When Dolgopolov upped his level, Tomic really struggled but the Aussie was fortunate that he couldn't sustain it for any longer than 3/4 games. Federer however will and was always comfortable against Karlovic in truth and with have been happy that the match didn't go to 4/5 sets as a lengthy match against the Croatian in the heat is not something you want to be doing in a slam. Tomic has had to play two 5 matches already this week, as well as a lengthy 4 setter as well so there could well be some fatigue that comes into play in his game today, especially if Federer gets going. As I've mentioned though, the youngster did struggle against Dolgopolov in parts where the Ukrainian was playing well and I'd expect him to be found wanting against Federer. I would have personally had the line a game higher at just under evens so more than happy to take the (7.5) line at an attractive price. I'll just do the writeup about the early women's match and then follow the rest up in another post as they start later on. Victoria Azarenka (-6.5 games) to beat Iveta Benesova- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) I would expect Azarenka to have a close match somewhere along the line if she is to make the semis or final even but I don't see that match coming today. She's been in ruthless form so far this week, just dropping 8 games in her 3 matches and beat an in form Mona Barthel comfortably the other day. Her all round game has been excellent and on this form, she'll be extremely hard to beat which in my eyes spells bad news to Benesova. The Czech has improved significantly from her first round match in which she struggled to get past Johansson but from then, she has comprehensively beaten Peng and Bratchikova in straight sets but this is a few steps up from that. Azarenka's confidence must be sky high at the minute, as she is unbeaten so far this season and only dropped 2 sets. Despite her gangster rap entrance on court which wouldn't look out of place in a Bluewater shopping centre, her actual tennis has been sublime and it's hard to see her struggling against Benesova, who has done well to make it this far but like 12 months ago, I fancy her to be pretty easily beaten in round 4. Azarenka has won all 3 meetings and covered the handicap in every match and given where her tennis is at right now, I'll back her to carry that tradition on.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Great shout on Hewitt Czech :ok Dylan I actually really wanted Makarova to win that second set 6-1 as I'd seen your post so worked out well. Were both a little lucky but a wins a win ;) Regret not backing Makarova to beat Zvonareva now, at least on the handicap as I had an incline Vera would struggle. As for these bloody outrights, honestly think if I had backed Djokovic to reach the last 16, Mahut would have beaten him in 5. Think I curse any player I back with those outrights so obviously Hewitt was going to bounce back and win in 4. The rest of the bets made up for it though with mainly Murray, Djokovic, Ferrer and Nishikori winning.. Ivanovic should have covered the handicap but wasn't consistent at all in that second set. Anyways with the Tipsarevic and Raonic outrights settled, it was +4.94 for last night, taking the overall to +18.93 for the tournament. Tricky looking 4th round card though IMO.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Now I can do the rest in one post. Heads all over the place at the minute :lol Kei Nishikori to beat Julien Benneteau- 10/11 Coral- (5/10) Yeah agree with what's been said about this match and feel this is the end of the road for Benny. He's played quite a bit of tennis over the past couple of weeks and we saw with Nieminen that all of those matches can catch up with you. Benneteau made the final last week in Sydney and is coming off the back of a grueling 5 setter against Simon. You'd have to say though that it was more Simon losing the match than Benneteau winning it and the 2 sets he lost, 1-6 3-6 suggest that whilst he only narrowly took the opening couple of sets. Really liked what I saw of Nishikori against Ebden though. To come back from 2 sets down against an Aussie down under at a slam is a fine effort and the way in which he did it was really impressive. He's already beaten Roddick and Tsonga this season whilst he hammered Robert in the opening round which shows how well he is playing early doors this year. He should be much the fresher of the two guys and if this goes into a fourth or fifth set, I'd fancy Nishikori a whole lot more than the odds suggest. Final couple for the women as well then. Vera Zvonareva vs Ekaterina Makarova- Over 19.5 games- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) This line looks too low to me given the way the Russian has been playing. The scoreline from her match against Hradecka really doesn't tell the whole story as she should have lost that second set comfortably but she managed to recover. She just hasn't looked anywhere near her best this season so it's hard to see her playing Makarova off the court here, especially given the fact she'll be sky high on confidence after beating Kanepi. To be perfectly honest I wouldn't back against the left handed Russian making it two upsets in a row here, but even a couple of tight sets would bring this line in and that's the least I expect from these two. Ana Ivanovic (-5.5 games) to beat Vania King- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Been wanting to back Ivanovic in her previous two matches but have been priced out even though she has sailed through comfortably and think she should do the same against King. Ivanovic really loves it over in Melbourne, and plays some really good stuff down under traditionally. She's looked very impressive so far in her two matches and I'd expect her to be a good winner again in the third round. Vania King did well to get past Pavlyuchenkova but the Russian has been pretty rotten at the start of the season so that was no big surprise. Ivanovic will be a huge step up for the American though as she'll be far more confident in her game and with the matchup. The Serb has covered this handicap in 2 out of the 3 meetings the two girls have played, including a win here in 2007 in which she won 6-2 6-0 and she should be able to win this with plenty to spare as well if her performances so far are anything to go by.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Frederico Gil (+9.5 games) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) Forgot to include this in the last post. Tsonga could well cream Gil but from what I've seen from the Frenchman, Gil should be able to keep this pretty tight. Tsonga's played quite defensive in truth, not usually what we see from him and certainly not what he does when he is playing at his best. Mello kept close to Tsonga for the majority and Istomin took a set off him in the first round so clear to see that the brute hasn't been quite at his best. Gil has picked up a couple of good wins over Dodig and Granollers and he has been competitive in both matches he's played against Tsonga, losing 6-3 6-4 in both and any repeat of those performances should see him cover the large looking handicap today.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Still for the life of me can't get one of those over bets right. Been so off the mark for all of those in the tournament so far it's laughable really. Thankfully Federer brought the main bet home but those last 16 bets are starting to frustrate me. Both Isner and Dolgopolov losing in the final set of their matches is not what I had hoped from them. With those 2 outrights settled, I'm currently sitting on +13.99 after a slight profit yesterday. Onto tonight then and not going to do massive writeups as I'm knackered after traveling back to uni today so will make them brief. Hopefully I can finally get one over on Sportingbet with regards to these last 16 bets, as I'm on Tipsarevic to beat Gasquet at 5/4 and Raonic to beat Hewitt at 5/6 in which I'm quietly confident about both. A few others appeal to me as well though. Andy Murray (-7.5 games) to beat Michael Llodra- 4/6 Coral- (7/10) It's never the wisest thing to be backing Murray on the handicap with such a big stake but feel he should be all over the Frenchman in this one. There's been quite a bit of talk from both players about the match, with Llodra fancying his chances and hoping his serve and volley tactics will get him past Murray. I'm not so sure however. The Scot saw off Roger-Vasselin pretty easily in truth and had few problems on return against the Frenchman who hasn't got the worst serve in the world. Llodra however was almost guilty of throwing away a 2 sets lead against Bogomolov and was a break down on a number of occasions in that final set. He was getting broken regularly from the 3rd set onwards really, and given how he isn't the most fitness friendly guy on the tour, there's no guarantees that he'll be as fresh as he could possibly be. Murray should be looking to exploit that, and whether serve and volley will work against one of the best returners in the game, is questionable. Llodra could well keep the first set tight and perhaps pinch it, but in the end I'd expect Murray to get his eye in and cope with the serve and volley and motor in a set or two. He'll be extremely dominant in the rallies and I think he'll be far too good for Llodra in the end in truth. Juan Ignacio Chela vs David Ferrer- Under 31.5 games- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Would be surprised if Chela really troubled Ferrer in this one. The Argentinian was a break down against Andujar in the previous round I think in all 3 sets at one point or another. He definitely was in at least 2 of them before Andujar just couldn't build on it, whereas a better player probably would have beaten him in 3. Ferrer himself didn't have the greatest game at all against Sweeting but I'm putting that down to the Spaniard just having one of those off days. I don't expect him to be anywhere near as bad today though and Chela really doesn't have anything at his disposal to dominate Ferrer. Sweeting had the big serve but Chela certainly doesn't have that, and Ferrer will dictate virtually all of the rallies. On clay it could be a closer thing, but on the hard courts, I don't expect Ferrer to drop a set in all honesty. Novak Djokovic (-10.5 games) to beat Nicolas Mahut- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) A game lower on the handicap and I'd be all over this but I'm just remaining a touch cautious with this line. I fully expect it to come through but never the biggest fan of taking handicaps above the (9.5) line in truth. However if Mahut plays how he did against Ito, he'll struggle to win more than 5 games in the match I'd say. The one thing he needs to play well, is his serve and so far in the tournament it just hasn't really been there and that's the only thing that will get him out of trouble against Djokovic. Not much point in talking about the Serb really as we all know how he's been playing which is superb and he should have way too much for Mahut in every department here. Gael Monfils (-6.5 games) to beat Mikhail Kukushkin- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) I do actually think Monfils will win well today can you believe. I certainly can't believe I'm saying that. Barring that first set against Bellucci, he was in complete control and actually played some nice stuff and it's not often you see Monfils only dropping 1 set in his first 2 matches of a slam, despite his quality. Kukushkin has had 2 fine wins so far, easily beating Garcia-Lopez and then taking Troicki out in 5 but feel this is the end of the road for him here. Monfils has always been in control in his matches this week and looks pretty good to me, and his antics haven't been too bad which is only a positive thing for the Frenchman so happy to back him here. I'll just do one of the women's matches because it starts soon and then I'll do the rest in a separate post. Sara Errani to beat Sorana Cirstea- 5/6 Coral- (3/10) Little surprised to not see the Italian as the favourite in this one. She's easily beaten Savinykh and Nadia Petrova, losing just 7 games in the tournament and her only 2 losses this year have been to Kuznetsova and Kerber, both of whom have started the season with a bang. Cirstea is being overrated in my opinion because of that win over Stosur but the Australian has never really done it in her home tournament and only won 1 match this season before the slam started so it's not that much of a huge upset in my books. The more notable thing with regards to Cirstea I feel is that she dropped the first set to Radwanska in the second round 1-6 which really doesn't look good to me. Bear in mind that's Urszula, not Agy and although the Pole isn't a terrible player, she is far from being a world beater who would cream any of the top players 6-1 in a set. Errani has won the last 2 meetings between these two women and given how impressive she has looked so far this week, I'd make her a bigger favourite to make it 3 in a row.
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 All of you are to blame. If you would have just let say me and IAG take that bet, maybe they wouldn't have voided it. Shame on you guys :lol Yeah obvious error but I thought they may have left it given what happened in the darts. Oh well, can't complain in the slightest.
Tennis: Australian Open 2012
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Full house for me despite Sharapova getting hammered. Didn't bother getting up early to watch it but looking at the highlights, seems that Azarenka was comfortable from the mid point of the first set onwards. Sharapova just about covered the serve speed handicap and only managed the 1 ace so brings a win for IAG as well. Paes/Stepanek played really well though and fully deserved their win. +12.30 for me today then, bringing my overall to +38.47 with just the men's final left.