harry_rag

It might be worth linking back to your post explaining how the ratings work @Fader maybe edit it into the OP.

Good luck. My concern about the ratings is that they’re based on such a small number of games but I’ll be interested to see how you get on. My other thought is the price v ratings angle. A 20 point margin would be one thing at, say, 1/2, but maybe another at 2/1. Now if you could convert the ratings into fair prices that would be great! As a quick and easy proxy, maybe you could multiply the points advantage by the team’s odds to give a rough and ready value measure. 1.5 x 20 woulds score 30 whereas 3 x 20 score 60. That could give you the potential best bets each week reflecting the ELO ratings and the available odds.

And so back to "proper" footy with my betting bank not sorry to see the end of the International break! Friday eases us back in with a few games hither and thither. Plymouth v Watford in the Championship is the main game on these shores and Spain, Germany and France also get back underway. 7 Premier League games on Saturday let us know it's really business as usual with a decidedly mortal looking Man City facing Spurs in the game of the day. Pretty much every League you could imagine is in action so it's very much a "feast" weekend rather than a "famine" one this week. The remaining Premier League games are on Sunday and Monday before we're back in the thick of the UEFA club competitions in midweek. Let's see if we can find a few winners between us.

“Most Weather” doesn’t have quite the same ring!

Week 12 already! Still slightly in front for the season if hardly smashing it, let's see what this week holds. Thoughts and bets below please.

Some more decent games this week for anyone so inclined!

No joy but small profit on the week so could be worse! Bring on week 12.

It's been a brutal weekend on the International footy front so you'll have to excuse an AT that at least pulled my nuts out of the fire in terms of the NFL betting! I noticed I had a "money back if loses" offer that I could use on the late game so went with Chase and Dobbins both to score a TD and Burrow >1.5 TD passes at 5.2. As it was I was looking at a loss with just Walker, Johnson and Downs scoring. I only just noticed the latter had scored so that feels like a bonus win as well! For the final game of the weekend I've gone with Lamb at 3.35 on the exchange. A bet for me at 9/4 with PP, I concur with the majority of the market that he should be under 2/1 rather than over. Had a BB freebie to use so gone with Houston win, Mixon and Collins TD and Stroud >1.5 TD passes at 5/1.

Well, if you take the cash out angle first we've already definitely decided that no-one should ever take a cash out offer from a bookie! I'd say that the wisdom still holds as a general rule. Mostly you should let the bet run as the cash out will be poor value and, if you must close out, you'd probably be better doing so on the exchange. If the original bet was good value, let it run. You'll make more money in the long run. So I'd probably only consider closing out if I thought the current price was significantly shorter than it should be. I've pondered the win v e/w thing over the years. Sometimes the place price and terms seems to offer real value but it's a pain that you can't bet place only on those terms without taking the less appealing win bet as well (either because you don't think the selection will go all the way or because you can get much better win odds on the exchange). My gut feel is that more often than not the e/w bet would return more if the selection placed than closing out a win only bet at that point. Might be worth tracking a real life example by capturing the opening prices and comparing the returns from backing the placed selection(s) e/w to laying off a win bet at that point.

And from the remaining games: at Chicago 12/5 Doubs at Miami 13/5 Mostert at LAC 5/2 Johnston and 7/2 Edwards

Been back round those games on current prices before I look at the remaining ones. A few have shortened or drifted slightly since I backed them but all still a bet at current prices. Added 16/5 Allen at NY Jets. Would add 5/2 Jennings at SF if I could get the price but not quite a bet at the best I can get.

McCann for Forest Green looks huge at 11/2 with 365 if you can get on. Scored in 6 of his 17 starts this season. Not sure I'd want to go any bigger than the next best 10/3, if that.

Nicolaescu 11/4 for Moldova another one that appeals. Easily the most likely scorer according to the market (twice as high a goals expectation as next lost likely). Again 22/1 the brace looks worth a couple of quid but 125/1 the 'trick is too short. Covered the anytime and brace doubles on him and Krstovic so a bumper payout if they both manage to find the net twice! Not often I get the chance to bother with such frippery as it's rare for me to have decent looking bets with the same firm at the same time but might as well buy a ticket when the opportunity presents itself.

Johnson not an 11/2 shot for me for Wales v Turkey. Can't get on with Paddy Poor but 6.6 matched on the exchange.

Krstovic an eye-catcher at 4/1 for Montenegro v Iceland. A point better than fair for me. Been profitable at club level this season, let's see if he can translate that to the International stage. Will chuck a couple of quid at the brace at 33/1. Might've put the hat trick up in the "100 Club" thread but computer says no to 250/1. Be gutted if it lands but got to stick to where the value is perceived to be!