harry_rag

I think someone mentioned his finishing was poor in the game where he let me down for the double with Saka and you made that comment. I wasn’t disputing your view at all, it’s just amusing (and pleasing for me) that he’s scored more than once in both games since. For me he’s a player who can be all or nothing, profitable to follow or costly. At the moment I’d rather see him flagged up as a system pick than either of Piroe or Calvert-Lewin who seem to be lost causes. As my curiosity’s piqued now I might take a closer look at his stats to see how they hold up.

Methinks someone doth read the forum, given the recent criticism of his ability to finish!

Seeing if Jesus's festive mood continues at 3.35 and will see if Mateta can make him cross at 5.3. Wirtz in Germany, Bozenik in Portugal. Time for tea!

Looks like you were eliminated due to 4 no shows last season, didn't ask to rejoin and didn't post last week when the offer was made to anyone who still wanted to join, I assume you're too late now for this season but I'm sure @avongirl will confirm next time she checks in.

One clear bet for me tonight, 11/4 Hopkins for Kansas. Freiermuth interesting in the other game if you can get the 16/5 with Betway. He's drifted overnight to be reasonable value but his spread price has dropped slightly as well so he should be off my radar really. Will see if I can get on via the exchange.

Wow, 1-1 after 2 minutes! Too short for system picks but went for gut bets on Sesko 4/1 and Openda 3/1 (bit more on exchange). Former in so the 22/1 double is in play.

I echo the above sentiments, Season's greetings to all.

10 point double: Villa 3.3 Brentford 2.3

There's a 5:00 game in Turkey and I think En Nesyri is just about a bet at 13/8. In terms of all the trimmings I've bunged him in an 11/1 BB with Tadic and both teams getting 20+ booking points.

Luton v Derby is the Friday night Championship game and there’s Motherwell v Kilmarnock in the SPL along with a few games lower down the ladder. There’s a league game in each of the Spanish, German and Italian top flights including the potentially high scoring encounter between Bayern and RB Leipzig. France, meanwhile, presses pause for Cup fixtures. We have 5 Premier League games on Saturday with Man City taking their woeful form to Villa in the early live game and Palace facing Arsenal again in the later one. The remaining 5 games are on Sunday with Spurs v Liverpool being the final act. Plenty of games to go at for anyone not involved in festivities or shopping. Let us know here if you pull any metaphorical crackers.

Flag a game that fits the bill and I’ll run it through the spreadsheet.

Chris Ramos 12/5 PP for Cadiz looks a decent bet to me, not bad at 21/10 365. Unfortunately I can't get close enough to 2/1 so no bet for me.

21/10 Sutton the closest to being a bet for me tonight, though would want 9/4 minimum (available price falls between "fair" odds and "back" odds). Will stick a small request up on the exchange, As Hills go 2/1 about him and have a BB boost I've gone Chargers win, Sutton TD and Nix interception at 10.37 for an interest.

Here's some random takes which hopefully make sense and add some value to the discussion! For me, the fair odds for this bet are at least 22.5, perhaps slightly higher. I've done the maths based on the exchange back price of 18.5 for 1-0 being fair (with 19.5 to lay it could end up at 19) and an 82% chance of the bookings line being covered (using a tried and trusted Kev P formula and taking the buy price of 50 as a guide for the bookings; the sell price of 46 is probably closer to the true value). To be fair to SBK, they're best price about all of the correct scores for 2 goals or less. Their correct score odds dutch to 2.79 for the unders versus their actual price of 2.86 and an exchange price of 2.98. If you were going to follow @Torque's idea of the most likely score, this would be a 2-1 game rather than a 1-0 game. 2-1 Spurs at 11 is their most likely win scoreline with 1-1 draw fav overall at 9.2. To support that notion (the shorter prices being closest to fair), if you add 25% to the SBK score odds and compare it to what you can get on the exchange, 1-1 comes out top at 1.2 x the exchange price while 2-1 is 1.18. 1-0 is just under 1.17. (As that ignores the cards bet it doesn't mean you're getting value but it at least means you're closer to fair odds.) My conclusion remains that this approach is getting you close to fair odds rather than clear value and that the long term expectation is around break even but we're going to need an awful lot of bets to prove me right or wrong! I agree with Torque that you'd probably improve your chances by backing the score that's favourite (either the shortest win score or maybe even the 1-1 where relevant). Whether there's a better "blind" angle to be had I don't know. My preferred approach is to build a BB around a leg that you believe to be a value bet in its own right which in my case means goalscorers where I flatter myself I have at least a marginal edge! Unfortunately SBK look to be a bit cautious when it comes to pricing that market.

Thanks @MCLARKE. For the avoidance of doubt, that's with SBK? (I think the odds may have moved slightly) And 21.6 is the decimal odds you're getting including the boost (not 21.6/1 which would be 22.6 as decimal odds) I was just interested in the odds offered for the chosen correct score and the cards line if backed as singles. Currently that's 17 and 1.13 so a straight multiplication plus boost would turn that into 23.76. Just going to stick some numbers in the spreadsheet and will report back after a brew and a biccie!