Denman
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Posts posted by Denman
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Re: Fulham v Stoke City > Saturday October 5th Fulham @ 2.72/2.74 on Betfair now. Looks even better value to me.
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Re: Fulham v Stoke City > Saturday October 5th I'd honestly still rate Fulham has being the better team of the two teams here. Stoke have looked decent and hard-working under Hughes but they lack any sort of creativity spark going forward. Fulham have disappointed so far this season but Berbatov is still a class act and Bent a reliable goal-scorer. Fulham look too big available at 2.45 for this game. I was expecting them to be around 5/4 to be honest so I see good value here.
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Please bring on Suarez at half-time Señor Tabárez.
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013 To be honest the Nigeria v Tahiti game looks a massive swerve to me. Nigeria without all their best attackers and have struggled for goals in their World Cup qualifying group and nobody knows how Tahiti are going to play (one would presume ultra defensive with everyone back behind the ball).
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Re: Where there's life there's hope It's good to see you back in action. That was a stroke of luck in the cricket, still can't quite believe Kieran Pollard lopped one up in the air like that knowing the situation with the threat of rain looming large and the knowledge they were ahead of D/L if they hadn't lost another wicket. A lot of people were writing off South Africa pre-tournament and I admit they weren't my fancy either but they've got through to the last four, given the fairly equal quality of all the teams involved it is a difficult one to call. I actually backed Italy (6/1) and Netherlands (8/1) pre-tournament for the European U21 championship. Out of the two I actually do favour Italy slightly although I expect a close game between the two today. Spain are the obvious favourites although I think they are beatable and perhaps still slightly over-rated hence why I opposed them at the start of the tournament.
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Re: Confederations Cup 2013 People always seem to get very excited at opposing teams of dubious quality in any sort of market. In a sense the involvement of Tahiti in this tournament is one of the main reasons behind my following bet. Top Goalscorer - Luis Suarez @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) May be a bold statement but for me Suarez us the best player at this tournament above all the stars that Spain, Brazil and Italy possess. Uruguay are a difficult team to gauge they've impressed at World Cups and won the latest Copa America tournament yet their recent form in World Cup qualifying as seen them come under scrutiny. Looking at the groups, Group B is clearly the easiest one with it looking like a straight shoot-out between Uruguay and Nigeria to see who progresses from that group alongside Spain. Now onto Tahiti which people seem to love to discuss. They are very much an unknown and the only real yardstick upon which they can be measured is against New Zealand, whom they played twice last year and lost twice. Looking at their world rankings at the comparable European teams it seems that they are slightly better than Luxembourg but not as good as Moldova although these ratings are very vague and not to be fully trusted it does give some idea to how much quality this team may possess. The conclusion I suppose is that they are not very good and nothing but a group of amateur footballers that all but one ply the trade in Tahiti (can't really blame them for it). As a result you could expect them to ship a fair few goals in this tournament. For me Suarez is therefore the obvious choice for a top goalscorer bet, Nigeria have brought a weakened squad to this tournament leaving out a lot of the stars of their African Cup Of Nations wins therefore Uruguay for me have a really good chance of making the semi-finals at least. Given Suarez's determination and the fact he works just as hard against a Oldham or a Tahiti as he would against a Barcelona or a Spain I'd be very surprised if he doesn't at least score a couple of goals in this tournament. You may say Spain have the opportunity to reveal in the goals against Tahiti as well but it's difficult to pick out who their number one goalscorer since they do have the tendency to share the goals about and have been known for rotating their lone striker or even play with six midfielders like they did at Euro 2012. Overall there's too many positives not to take this bet for me. Added in is the fact that Suarez will be fresh and raring to go for this tournament having been banned for his club side Liverpool for that infamous bite. He is Uruguay's star man and he should play every minute of every game and I think there's an outstanding chance of him scoring at least a couple of goals which should be enough to give you profitable return if you take this bet E/W. To win this bet overall the game against Tahiti will be crucial, it is the sort of game you could easily see Suarez running riot and getting a hat-trick.
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Re: One bet to £20,000 challenge Good luck for tomorrow, can't imagine what it would feel like having so much riding on one game, at most I've had a couple of hundred pounds on a few games and my nerves were shot to pieces afterwards. I shall be cheering for Benfica.
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Re: One bet to £20,000 challenge Technically speaking if you think the price should be around evens the pair (I tend to agree with you here, they looked two well-matched sides to me maybe Chelsea deserve slight favoritism) then laying off your bet in the long-run would be the wrong thing to do because it is better to have a 50% chance of winning £20k than it is to have a certain £8k in your pocket. Although it could be argued that this sort of opportunity doesn't come around every day and therefore you should guarantee yourself the nice profit. It may also be important to remember that you only actually started with the £50. Whilst if you let it run and it loses it will probably feel like you've lost £20k but in fact you've only ever lost the opportunity to win £20k albeit a better opportunity than the one you had at the beginning of the bet. The question really is if somebody came up to you in the street and said I'll toss this coin and if you chose the correct side I'll give you £20k straight up but if your wrong you get nothing alternative I can give just you £8k here and now and not bother with the coin. I just hope the decision isn't taken out of your hands, I'm sure there must some way to guarantee yourself the profit by borrowing some money. Perhaps get somebody you trust to take out a loan or a credit card if you don't want to do it in your own name. Whatever your final decision is please be sure you are comfortable with it, that is for sure the most important thing.
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Re: One bet to £20,000 challenge Yes I've come to wish you good luck for tonight as well. Benfica are still priced up as slight favourites to qualify tonight despite the first leg deficit. Fingers crossed for you. :hope
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Re: Chelsea v Swansea City > Sun 28th April Swansea are a good team, 10/1 is a good price for them against Chelsea, a team they have played against three times this season and who struggled against them on all three occasions.
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k 44.) 17:30 Punchestown - BACK Sprinter Sacre @ 1.14 Liability: £15.16, Potential Profit: £2.17
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k In hindsight I think the loser here was a rather poor bet. If Sunderland were to win it was very likely be by the 1-0 scoreline. Everton have been struggling for goals recently and Sunderland look a little resurgent under new management. Perhaps I got a little slack in that selections this week. I've actually dropped below half my previous bank high so stakes shall be reduced to 20% now. 42.) Sunderland v Everton - LAY 1-0 @ 11.5 -£24.36 43.) QPR v Stoke - BACK Over 0.5 goals @ 1.11 +£2.56 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £75.89 P/L: -£24.11
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k 42.) Sunderland v Everton - LAY 1-0 @ 11.5 Liability: £24.36, Potential Profit: £2.21 43.) QPR v Stoke - BACK Over 0.5 goals @ 1.11 Liability: £24.41, Potential Profit: £2.56
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k Oh dear that wasn't suppose to happen. Chelsea won 3-0 away at Fulham but to be fair it could have been worse because Wigan had good chances to win against Man City but they squander them. Now I'm operating at a loss for the first time in this GH. Maybe a silly time to start thinking about banking profit but I think it's an important thing to think about. Should I get back upto £150 that shall be my first banking point where I bank 5% of the total bank at the stage and I shall continue to do that every time I reach a new £50 interval (£200, £250, £300, £350, ect.). I do like the idea of this because if I manage to make this work I'll be slowly withdrawing money from the bank but at the same time maintaining the majority of the funds for the challenge. After all the end aim is to make some money and the profit is never really profit until you've banked it and spent it. Results 39.) Barnsley v Derby - LAY 0-0 @ 12 +£2.68 40.) Man City v Wigan - LAY Wigan @ 13 +£2.51 41.) Fulham v Chelsea - BACK Fulham (+2.5) @ 1.14 -£31.65 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £97.69 P/L: -£2.31
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Re: West Ham v Manchester United > Wed 17th April Think the draw offers some value in this game. West Ham are a solid enough mid-table team and Man United are so far clear in the league hat there's no great need for them to go all-out for the win in this one. Both teams would probably consider a draw a decent result and if the scores are level towards the end of the game you could see both team happily play out the game for a point apiece. 3/1 for the draw looks good to me.
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k 40.) Man City v Wigan - LAY Wigan @ 13 Liability: £31.68, Potential Profit: £2.51 41.) Fulham v Chelsea - BACK Fulham (+2.5) @ 1.14 Liability: £31.65, Potential Profit: £4.43
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k Barnsley will have this marked as a game they really have to win if they want to survive relegation. Derby have a poor away record but more often than not they manage to find a goal or two. 39.) Barnsley v Derby - LAY 0-0 @ 12 Liability: £31.02, Potential Profit: £2.68
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k
Yeah' date=' don't beat yourself up about that red card - it really wasn't a game for rash challenges and loads of cards. Solid selection IMO.[/quote'] I'm glad you came to same conclusion as me. I've all but forget about it already there really is no point in dwelling on losers. Only one of my bets that looked in any danger out of my weekend bets was the Everton/QPR one but thankfully the home side decided to see out the game rather than put QPR further to the sword after going 2-0 up. Everton also hit the post in the game as well so it could have easily been 3-0, although I thought that would have been a little harsh on QPR. Results 36.) Everton v QPR - LAY 3-0 @ 12.5 +£2.34 37.) Millwall v Wigan - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.15 +£4.05 38.) Stoke v Man United - LAY Over 4.5 goals @ 7.8 +£4.19 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £124.55 P/L: +£24.55 -
Re: It's a long way to a £100k 38.) Stoke v Man United - LAY Over 4.5 goals @ 7.8 Liability: £29.99, Potential Profit: £4.19
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Re: The masters valve inplay Nice price on Cabrera, should get a good run for your money there.
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k 36.) Everton v QPR - LAY 3-0 @ 12.5 Liability: £28.29, Potential Profit: £2.34 37.) Millwall v Wigan - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.15 Liability: £28.37, Potential Profit: £4.05
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Re: Newcastle United v Sunderland > Sun 14th April Newcastle currently available at 1.95 is a cracking bet in my opinion. They are the superior side in every department for me. I know there's the derby effect and new manager syndrome to take into account but still I Sunderland are very poor and always struggle to score goals.
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Re: It's a long way to a £100k
Unlucky mate' date=' it's funny how these things go sometimes.[/quote'] It is indeed. A week's good work wiped out with one silly foul. Can't complain though it was definitely a red card with Vertonghen being the last man. Always seems more damning when it happens so late in the game though. Always worth reminding yourself of "lucky" winners in situations like this. The game turned into quite a frantic affair, although a red card didn't really look in danger at any point up until the actual sending off. Perhaps I did get a little over-confident and shouldn't have gone for a bet at such long odds in comparison to my previous bets, although in some ways I'd much rather lose trying to gain a bigger amount than say if I'd have gone for a 1.05 shot and have it beat. That being said I still think it was a sound bet despite it being a loser. The bank high point would have been surpassed if I'd won with that bet as well, but it was not to be. I'm still in profit overall and I'm be back with more bets soon. Results 34.) Rubin Kazan v Chelsea - LAY 0-0 @ 10.5 +£3.69 35.) FC Basel v Tottenham - BACK Sending Off? No @ 1.33 -£37.82 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £113.57 P/L: +£13.57 -
Re: It's a long way to a £100k Bit of a peculiar one here maybe. But having looked through disciplinary records, a red card looks rather unlikely here. Basel have had only one red card all season and knowing the Spurs side I don't think they have any really aggressive players in their side. The lack of Bale & Lennon in the Spurs side surely makes a red card less likely as well since they are usual prime targets for getting fouled and getting opposition players in trouble. Slightly bigger odds than I usually go for here and there's always room for things to go wrong with bets like this, a stupid refereeing decision or one player losing his temper for example. Interestingly enough a rather big chunk as already matched @ 1.22 on this market. First game seemed to be played in good spirit also with just the three yellow cards. 35.) FC Basel v Tottenham - BACK Sending Off? No @ 1.33 Liability: £37.82, Potential Profit: £11.72
Crystal Palace v Arsenal > Saturday October 26th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Crystal Palace v Arsenal > Saturday October 26th The odds on this game look correct to me. Crystal Palace looked a sorry state during the second half against Fulham and now having lost Holloway it is difficult to see where the inspiration is going to come from to put in a level of performance capable of beating a team like Arsenal. Instead of match odds I think it is best to look elsewhere, I particularly like the look of the anytime goalscorer market in this match. Ozil and Ramsey both in good form and are available at 2/1 (Bet365) to score anytime. In addition I've noticed Palace have conceded penalties in three games this season and they all came against the 'top sides' in Liverpool, Man United & Tottenham. Arteta is Arsenal's penalty taker and is 5/1 (Skybet) to score anytime which seems good value to me as I think there's a good chance of a penalty in this game with the likelihood of Arsenal having a lot of the ball.