FleetFanatic
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from Xtc12 in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
Right again, winner scoring 99.
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FleetFanatic reacted to BillyHills in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
Rubbish these trends
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from Johnrobertson in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
So to clarify I am going to take on these 9 against the field:
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
CHASE THE SPUD 92
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
BLAKLION 83 (60day adj 92)
REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 83 (60day adj 92)
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 83 (60day adj 92)
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 83 (60day adj 92)
Happy to see what offers are about between now & the off.
I see bet365 have offered me half stakes back on bets before midday.
That might be enough unless there's anything better?
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from Johnrobertson in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
UPDATED LIST:
removed non-runners, and double checked where runners had dropped points.
Found one error, Chase the Spud now scores as a qualifier.
Teach me to rush the calculations.
Will check again before saturday, but the 90+ are my shortlist.
MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 67
BLAKLION 83
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 81
VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 49
TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 74
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 65
GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 72
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 74
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 58
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) AGE
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 83
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 83
CHASE THE SPUD 92
WARRIORS TALE 74
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 74
GAS LINE BOY (IRE) AGE
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 83
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 74
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 76
SAINT ARE (FR) AGE
BEEVES (IRE) 81
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) AGE
I JUST KNOW (IRE) 81
VIRGILIO (FR) 74
BAIE DES ILES (FR) AGE
MAGGIO (FR) AGE
PENDRA (IRE) 81
BUYWISE (IRE) 65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) AGE
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) AGE
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 81
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) AGE
I will be backing these 6:
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
CHASE THE SPUD 92
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
Hopefully there will be a 'back & get your stake back as a free bet' offer come saturday morning.
If so, I will add another 4.
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from WiggoBets in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
UPDATED LIST:
removed non-runners, and double checked where runners had dropped points.
Found one error, Chase the Spud now scores as a qualifier.
Teach me to rush the calculations.
Will check again before saturday, but the 90+ are my shortlist.
MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 67
BLAKLION 83
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 81
VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 49
TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 74
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 65
GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 72
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 74
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 58
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) AGE
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 83
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 83
CHASE THE SPUD 92
WARRIORS TALE 74
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 74
GAS LINE BOY (IRE) AGE
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 83
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 74
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 76
SAINT ARE (FR) AGE
BEEVES (IRE) 81
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) AGE
I JUST KNOW (IRE) 81
VIRGILIO (FR) 74
BAIE DES ILES (FR) AGE
MAGGIO (FR) AGE
PENDRA (IRE) 81
BUYWISE (IRE) 65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) AGE
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) AGE
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 81
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) AGE
I will be backing these 6:
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
CHASE THE SPUD 92
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
Hopefully there will be a 'back & get your stake back as a free bet' offer come saturday morning.
If so, I will add another 4.
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
UPDATED LIST:
removed non-runners, and double checked where runners had dropped points.
Found one error, Chase the Spud now scores as a qualifier.
Teach me to rush the calculations.
Will check again before saturday, but the 90+ are my shortlist.
MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 67
BLAKLION 83
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 81
VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 49
TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 74
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 65
GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 72
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 74
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 58
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) AGE
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 83
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 83
CHASE THE SPUD 92
WARRIORS TALE 74
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 74
GAS LINE BOY (IRE) AGE
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 83
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 74
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 76
SAINT ARE (FR) AGE
BEEVES (IRE) 81
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) AGE
I JUST KNOW (IRE) 81
VIRGILIO (FR) 74
BAIE DES ILES (FR) AGE
MAGGIO (FR) AGE
PENDRA (IRE) 81
BUYWISE (IRE) 65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) AGE
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) AGE
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 81
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) AGE
I will be backing these 6:
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
CHASE THE SPUD 92
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
Hopefully there will be a 'back & get your stake back as a free bet' offer come saturday morning.
If so, I will add another 4.
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
First 40 plus next 7 in the weights.
In comparing RPR to OR, the OR used for the race weights is used,
not what the weight is already due to change to.
MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 67
BLAKLION 83
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 81
VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 49
TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 74
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 65
GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 72
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 74
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 58
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) AGE
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 83
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 83
CHASE THE SPUD 83
WARRIORS TALE 74
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 74
GAS LINE BOY (IRE) AGE
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 83
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 74
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 76
SAINT ARE (FR) AGE
BEEVES (IRE) 81
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) AGE
I JUST KNOW (IRE) 81
VIRGILIO (FR) 74
BAIE DES ILES (FR) AGE
MAGGIO (FR) AGE
PENDRA (IRE) 81
BUYWISE (IRE) 65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) AGE
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) AGE
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 81
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) AGE
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 56
DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE)83
THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE) 76
As it stands, either I've done something wrong or this isn't as strong as last year?
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
Anyway I am going to start work on this this weekend.
Will only be going though those aged 8-11 as if you fail that criteria you can only score 88.
Done the first 10 already!
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from WiggoBets in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
First 40 plus next 7 in the weights.
In comparing RPR to OR, the OR used for the race weights is used,
not what the weight is already due to change to.
MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 67
BLAKLION 83
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 90
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 81
VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 49
TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 74
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 65
GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 72
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 74
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 90
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 58
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) AGE
VICENTE (FR) 92
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 99
REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 83
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 83
CHASE THE SPUD 83
WARRIORS TALE 74
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 74
GAS LINE BOY (IRE) AGE
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 83
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 74
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 76
SAINT ARE (FR) AGE
BEEVES (IRE) 81
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) AGE
I JUST KNOW (IRE) 81
VIRGILIO (FR) 74
BAIE DES ILES (FR) AGE
MAGGIO (FR) AGE
PENDRA (IRE) 81
BUYWISE (IRE) 65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) AGE
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) AGE
MILANSBAR (IRE) 99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 81
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) AGE
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 56
DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE)83
THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE) 76
As it stands, either I've done something wrong or this isn't as strong as last year?
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from corky in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
A chap elsewhere came up with this method last year which I followed:
I haven't had chance to do anything with it yet this year.
Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99.
If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1
If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2
The theory was that the trends & scoring are based only on the few years since the major changes to the race were made & was based on winners & close finishers (within 10 lengths of the winner) in those years. Taking only those scoring 90 points or more, it got 6 of the first 7 home at the first attempt last year!
Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11
Last year's ratings:
The Last Samuri: 90 pts
More Of That: 72 pts
Shantou Flyer: 52 pts
Perfect Candidate: 74 pts
Saphir Du Rheu: 74 pts
Roi De Francs: 65 pts
Wounded Warrior: 81 pts
Wonderful Charm: 72 pts
Tenor Nivernais: 83 pts
BLAKLION: 99 pts
Drop Out Joe: 83 pts
Le Mercurey: 61 pts
The Young Master: 81 pts
CAUSE OF CAUSES: 99 pts
Regal Encore: 74 pts
VIEUX LION ROUGE: 99 pts
Definitly Red: 92 pts
Ucello Conti: 74 pts
Double Shuffle: 79 pts
Houblon Des Obeaux: 67 pts
Pleasant Company: 81 pts
One For Arthur: 92 pts
Ballynagour: 58 pts
O'Faolains Boy: 74 pts
Highland Lodge: 92 pts
Bishops Road: 85 pts
Lord Windermere: 90 pts
Saint Are: 83 pts
Vincente: 83 pts
JUST A PAR: 99 pts
Measureofmydreams: 90 pts
Raz De Maree: 79 pts
Stellar Notion: 56 pts
Rogue Angel: 76 pts
Cocktails At Dawn: 56 pts
Thunder And Roses: 92 pts
Gas Line Boy: 92 pts
Goodtoknow: 79 pts
La Vaticane: 72 pts
Doctor Harper: 72 pts
And the years that were used for the data were back scored:
2016 1. RULE THE WORLD: 90 pts
2. The Last Samuri: 99 pts
2015
1. MANY CLOUDS: 90 pts
2. Saint Are: 76 pts
3. Monbeg Dude: 99 pts
2014
1. PINEAU DE RE: 90 pts
2. Balthazar King: 90 pts
3. Double Seven: 90 pts
2013
1. AURORAS ENCORE: 83 pts
2. Cappa Bleu: 92 pts
3. Teaforthree: 99 pts
If anybody wants to crack on before I find the time feel free as things are quite hectic at the moment.
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FleetFanatic reacted to BillyHills in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
Obviously more than one horse will meet the trends, we are not totally stupid, its just a way of narrowing down the field for some.
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
A chap elsewhere came up with this method last year which I followed:
I haven't had chance to do anything with it yet this year.
Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99.
If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1
If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2
The theory was that the trends & scoring are based only on the few years since the major changes to the race were made & was based on winners & close finishers (within 10 lengths of the winner) in those years. Taking only those scoring 90 points or more, it got 6 of the first 7 home at the first attempt last year!
Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11
Last year's ratings:
The Last Samuri: 90 pts
More Of That: 72 pts
Shantou Flyer: 52 pts
Perfect Candidate: 74 pts
Saphir Du Rheu: 74 pts
Roi De Francs: 65 pts
Wounded Warrior: 81 pts
Wonderful Charm: 72 pts
Tenor Nivernais: 83 pts
BLAKLION: 99 pts
Drop Out Joe: 83 pts
Le Mercurey: 61 pts
The Young Master: 81 pts
CAUSE OF CAUSES: 99 pts
Regal Encore: 74 pts
VIEUX LION ROUGE: 99 pts
Definitly Red: 92 pts
Ucello Conti: 74 pts
Double Shuffle: 79 pts
Houblon Des Obeaux: 67 pts
Pleasant Company: 81 pts
One For Arthur: 92 pts
Ballynagour: 58 pts
O'Faolains Boy: 74 pts
Highland Lodge: 92 pts
Bishops Road: 85 pts
Lord Windermere: 90 pts
Saint Are: 83 pts
Vincente: 83 pts
JUST A PAR: 99 pts
Measureofmydreams: 90 pts
Raz De Maree: 79 pts
Stellar Notion: 56 pts
Rogue Angel: 76 pts
Cocktails At Dawn: 56 pts
Thunder And Roses: 92 pts
Gas Line Boy: 92 pts
Goodtoknow: 79 pts
La Vaticane: 72 pts
Doctor Harper: 72 pts
And the years that were used for the data were back scored:
2016 1. RULE THE WORLD: 90 pts
2. The Last Samuri: 99 pts
2015
1. MANY CLOUDS: 90 pts
2. Saint Are: 76 pts
3. Monbeg Dude: 99 pts
2014
1. PINEAU DE RE: 90 pts
2. Balthazar King: 90 pts
3. Double Seven: 90 pts
2013
1. AURORAS ENCORE: 83 pts
2. Cappa Bleu: 92 pts
3. Teaforthree: 99 pts
If anybody wants to crack on before I find the time feel free as things are quite hectic at the moment.
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FleetFanatic got a reaction from BillyHills in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
A chap elsewhere came up with this method last year which I followed:
I haven't had chance to do anything with it yet this year.
Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99.
If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1
If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2
The theory was that the trends & scoring are based only on the few years since the major changes to the race were made & was based on winners & close finishers (within 10 lengths of the winner) in those years. Taking only those scoring 90 points or more, it got 6 of the first 7 home at the first attempt last year!
Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11
Last year's ratings:
The Last Samuri: 90 pts
More Of That: 72 pts
Shantou Flyer: 52 pts
Perfect Candidate: 74 pts
Saphir Du Rheu: 74 pts
Roi De Francs: 65 pts
Wounded Warrior: 81 pts
Wonderful Charm: 72 pts
Tenor Nivernais: 83 pts
BLAKLION: 99 pts
Drop Out Joe: 83 pts
Le Mercurey: 61 pts
The Young Master: 81 pts
CAUSE OF CAUSES: 99 pts
Regal Encore: 74 pts
VIEUX LION ROUGE: 99 pts
Definitly Red: 92 pts
Ucello Conti: 74 pts
Double Shuffle: 79 pts
Houblon Des Obeaux: 67 pts
Pleasant Company: 81 pts
One For Arthur: 92 pts
Ballynagour: 58 pts
O'Faolains Boy: 74 pts
Highland Lodge: 92 pts
Bishops Road: 85 pts
Lord Windermere: 90 pts
Saint Are: 83 pts
Vincente: 83 pts
JUST A PAR: 99 pts
Measureofmydreams: 90 pts
Raz De Maree: 79 pts
Stellar Notion: 56 pts
Rogue Angel: 76 pts
Cocktails At Dawn: 56 pts
Thunder And Roses: 92 pts
Gas Line Boy: 92 pts
Goodtoknow: 79 pts
La Vaticane: 72 pts
Doctor Harper: 72 pts
And the years that were used for the data were back scored:
2016 1. RULE THE WORLD: 90 pts
2. The Last Samuri: 99 pts
2015
1. MANY CLOUDS: 90 pts
2. Saint Are: 76 pts
3. Monbeg Dude: 99 pts
2014
1. PINEAU DE RE: 90 pts
2. Balthazar King: 90 pts
3. Double Seven: 90 pts
2013
1. AURORAS ENCORE: 83 pts
2. Cappa Bleu: 92 pts
3. Teaforthree: 99 pts
If anybody wants to crack on before I find the time feel free as things are quite hectic at the moment.