jonjo

Money continued on O'toole from the early 5.1 in to a Bfsp of 2.78 and WON nicely. 

On the 2nd January Daryll Jacob won on two for Irish raiders from the Crawford yard, can he repeat the feat at Newcastle? Has O'toole in the 1.23 fairly well backed at the moment but nothing special 5.1 into 3.95 and also he has Artiste Dainay in the 2.33 steady around the 3.3 mark. His favourites have a record of 2 from 5 over the years at Newcastle but he is one of those trainers where if you backed his every favourite you would be in profit, with him showing a 44% strike rate with favourites when coming across the water.
 
? One winner, one loser.

On the 2nd January Daryll Jacob won on two for Irish raiders from the Crawford yard, can he repeat the feat at Newcastle? Has O'toole in the 1.23 fairly well backed at the moment but nothing special 5.1 into 3.95 and also he has Artiste Dainay in the 2.33 steady around the 3.3 mark. His favourites have a record of 2 from 5 over the years at Newcastle but he is one of those trainers where if you backed his every favourite you would be in profit, with him showing a 44% strike rate with favourites when coming across the water.
 
? One winner, one loser.

LAY BET: 1.45 Ling Cresta De Vega 2.04 @ 2.48 = +2 v Liab of 3.02.  The horse has to overcome a layoff of 442 days and was gelded over a year ago. It doesn't look to have a glittering career thus far.   Fine Balance trained by George Boughey looks to be the form choice and Momaer and Pysanka trained by Mark Loughnane don't look out of it either.  Hats off to Ralph Beckett if he can pull it off
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Very good run by the favourite but Momaer leads all the way and wins.  Looks like Billy Loughnane's 7lb claim sealed the deal.  + 2 win makes my MTD -3.09

On the 2nd January Daryll Jacob won on two for Irish raiders from the Crawford yard, can he repeat the feat at Newcastle? Has O'toole in the 1.23 fairly well backed at the moment but nothing special 5.1 into 3.95 and also he has Artiste Dainay in the 2.33 steady around the 3.3 mark. His favourites have a record of 2 from 5 over the years at Newcastle but he is one of those trainers where if you backed his every favourite you would be in profit, with him showing a 44% strike rate with favourites when coming across the water.
 
? One winner, one loser.

On the 2nd January Daryll Jacob won on two for Irish raiders from the Crawford yard, can he repeat the feat at Newcastle? Has O'toole in the 1.23 fairly well backed at the moment but nothing special 5.1 into 3.95 and also he has Artiste Dainay in the 2.33 steady around the 3.3 mark. His favourites have a record of 2 from 5 over the years at Newcastle but he is one of those trainers where if you backed his every favourite you would be in profit, with him showing a 44% strike rate with favourites when coming across the water.
 
? One winner, one loser.

God luck with Sir Ivan. I like the profiler myself, it justs shows how we can read situations differently, from my persepective I've got that every winner so far (and we only have 7 runnings of the race to go at, makes it even harder) has ran at a distance of 4m 1f or more at some stage of their career  which left five to go at, numbers 1, 2, 3,15,16, cant really find anything more definitive than that, mine is from a 'watching brief only' so hope that Sir Ivan romps in for you. 

God luck with Sir Ivan. I like the profiler myself, it justs shows how we can read situations differently, from my persepective I've got that every winner so far (and we only have 7 runnings of the race to go at, makes it even harder) has ran at a distance of 4m 1f or more at some stage of their career  which left five to go at, numbers 1, 2, 3,15,16, cant really find anything more definitive than that, mine is from a 'watching brief only' so hope that Sir Ivan romps in for you. 

God luck with Sir Ivan. I like the profiler myself, it justs shows how we can read situations differently, from my persepective I've got that every winner so far (and we only have 7 runnings of the race to go at, makes it even harder) has ran at a distance of 4m 1f or more at some stage of their career  which left five to go at, numbers 1, 2, 3,15,16, cant really find anything more definitive than that, mine is from a 'watching brief only' so hope that Sir Ivan romps in for you. 

Yes, the best price now is 4/1, but you may get better on the exchanges in due course or do expect me to post before I put my own bet on? A few minutes earlier and I could have had 15/2

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.
 
As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.
Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.
 
As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.
Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

Yes, the best price now is 4/1, but you may get better on the exchanges in due course or do expect me to post before I put my own bet on? A few minutes earlier and I could have had 15/2

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.
 
As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.
Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

Yes, the best price now is 4/1, but you may get better on the exchanges in due course or do expect me to post before I put my own bet on? A few minutes earlier and I could have had 15/2

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.
 
As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.
Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

Yes, the best price now is 4/1, but you may get better on the exchanges in due course or do expect me to post before I put my own bet on? A few minutes earlier and I could have had 15/2

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.
 
As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.
Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.
 
As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.
Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

A nice Gay ke;away double for the day, s econd one a very nice price. Quiet on here today? All studying for tomorrow or justput off by the bad racing?

In the 6.30 the horse that gave Charlie Johsnton his first outright winner on Wednesday, Asdaa, is out again and still looks well in on old form despite a 4lb penalty taking his mark to 71, having won off as high as 86 in the past he should go very well tomorrow night over the same course and distance. Best prices available at the moment are all around the evens mark.
 
As always lay off prices in runnng will be placed.
Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow. 

Poor racing today and nothing in particular stands out.
At Southwell a couple of Gay Kellaway horses that could be in with a shout:
5.45 its hard to see Aesthetic turning the tables on Haaland over this two furlong longer distance, Haaland despatched todays reopposing rival quite easily and it could take more than a 6lb pull in the weights to change that. As I'm typing though the Haggas horse is quite strong in the market but its early doors so its Haaland for me currently around the 2.9 mark on the exchanges and drifting slightly due to the money for Aesthetic and Gilded Moon............................................................................................................................well that was nice and easy, huge money for this one close to the off, the early 2.9 was nice to get, WON ?
6.15 Comedian Leader is also a bit of a drifter, easy to back at 10.5 but could be a win and place bet, the filly was noted running on last time out over this distance at Lingfield and may be ready to strike, Saffie Osbourne is riding in Meydan today so Luke Morris takes over............................................................................Won, good ride from Luke Morris and returned at a Bfsp of 9.08??
 
Good luck today everyone whatever you may be backing/laying.
 
A couple of Stable Switchers of interest today:
Active Duty (FR) 2.30 Ludlow 10/3..........3rd 1.89 for the place Tylos (FR) 6.45 Southwell 11/4.........nutted on the line, placed at 2.49

2.45 Km LAY Golden Speech 2.04 at 1.65 = 2 v 1.33 liability
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The TV presenter said that the First sight was wearing the first silks of Godolphin and I don't know if this meant anything or whether Jamie Spencer was significant but it did seem to me that Golden speech was hard to win with which is why I went with it.  There were a couple of odds on chances that won in the early races but they didn't really have much competition.  I would love to have very strong reasons (as suggested by @Bang on)to lay my selections and have at least two main players in the race against them but I think that I am being a bit too optimistic.  The favourites always seem to have lots going for them.  I will just have to work on what seems to be significant to lay them.  2 pts win.  My MTD is now -5.09.   I will try to be more careful with the selections though

Ludlow. 
Single. 
3.30. The Wrekin       5/1      nr.       2.15. Kemp.  Carzola      5/1    3rd
Double. 
1.30. Egbert.    11/4        1st 
2.30. Admiralty House.    9/4     2nd 
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

If you layed every horse that went off at a ISP of 11/10 or less then you would make a profit 9 years out of 10, the problem is that your ROI on Betfair will only be 1.05% and your losing runs will be many and up to 17, losing sequences can be as high as 1 in 24, you will need a huge bank and lots of patience and discipline, last year the profit would have been 38 points and the year before 49 points - not a lot from almost 3,000 seections. If you are more selective it can produce a better ROI but...............................