jonjo

Southwell. 
Double. 
2.20. Mogok Valley         4/1            unpl
3.50. This One's For Fred      4/1     unpl
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

LAY BETS
12.30 Kelso Clovis Boy.  This poor horse has been gelded, had a wind op, and is being tongue-tied for its first run on a race course.  In many ways, I hope it wins and rewards connections but it looks worth opposing 2.04 at 2.66 = 2 v (3.39)
2.50 Sou Win Win Power 2.04 at 1.69 = 2 v (1.41).  It may have been in front at the 7-furlong pole LTO but it hasn't won at 7 furlongs so I don't think it is a shoo-in.  There are two other horses in the field that won LTO as well.
3 non runners overnight in the 2.50 at Sou.  Have cashed out this bet for 0.19 or 0.20 profit. 
Haha, Lucinda Russell forgot to add "wings" to Clovis Boy.  Terrible race, they all ran at a crawl for most of it.
At least I can't lose any money today as I cashed out on the 2.50
Luckily I cashed out with Win Win Power but would only have lost 0.69 pts had I not.  Profit 2.19 makes my MTD -4.33

Two winner for the Stable Switchers and a couple placed too. Both well backed and returned at 4.5 and 9.04.

12.27 Blood Destiny made an impressive start for the Willie Mullins machine, won quite easily in a race where the 2nd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won. I've taken 2.1 about this one..................................................................................................................WON nice and easy ?
12.55 Makinyourmindup is short at 1.84 but looks a good prospect for the Nicholls yard, made all the last twice and with the runner up franking the form winning next time up can go in again tomorrow................................................oh dear, last hurdle blunder cost him the race, still, surprisingly went off odds against and traded to 1.17 in running.
2.32 Iroko has had just four runs under rules and open to any amount of improvement. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win here in November, a race where he was always in command and asserted near the finish for a convincing win. A few in that race reoppose tomorrow on better terms so it wont be easy, Raffertys Return blundered the last that day and was eased, has won since so will be a danger and I'm having a saver each way on Captin Zebo who is 11lb better off for an 11 length beating in that race. Iroko is around 3.2 and CZ is around 12.5 but as yet there is little liquidity for him.....................WON nicely and 3.2 was nice to get for Iroko?
 
 
In runing lay off prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.  

Master Sully 13/2 in to 16/5 and wins ata Bfsp of 4.5, was 12 early doors.

The fayre from the ITV today is seven live races from Kempton and Warwick with the two feature races coming in two open looking handicaps in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton and the Classic Handicap Chase from Warwick. Two good betting heats with extra places on offer from our bookmaker friends. The ground is likely to ride testing at both courses and here’s my thoughts on the seven races.   Kempton 1.30 Only seven go to post for this three miles class 2 handicap chase with all having a chance of sorts. Top weight Enrilo was travelling well at the time when crashing out in the race won by Frodon at Wincanton ten weeks ago and if on song must go well for Messr’s Nicholls and Cobden although the ten week absence is a bit of a worry having taken such a pearler of a fall. Evan Williams’ Annsam was last seen when 6th in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy to us old boys!) and having been dropped a couple of pounds is another with a shout. Chris Honour is an under rated trainer based in the West Country and saddles Tile Tapper here who had one of today’s rivals Smarty Wild just behind over course and distance 18 days ago when runner up to Remastered. That was arguably a stronger race than this and he’s the play here for me. Kitty’s Light has fallen to a winning mark and shouldn’t be totally dismissed now that his trainer Christian Williams has found some winning form. Bottom weight Tile Tapper will do for me on ground that should suit with Bryan Carver taking the reigns.   TILE TAPPER 2 points win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Warwick 1.50 Only four got to post for this three mile grade 2 Novices’ Chase. Gordon Elliott is represented by The Goffer, a winner at Thurles in November who chased home the Willie Mullins trained Ha D’or a month later. Elliott is over here with three runners at this meeting and the trio have to be respected. Paul Nicholls saddles the favourite in Complete Unknown who looked one to follow when winning on his chase debut at Ffos Las in handicap company in December and Nicholls has won this race for the last two years. With Harry Cobden at Kempton Lorcan Williams comes in for this plum ride. Outsider Gentleman at Arms has it too do here despite his trainer Stuart Edmunds being in such good form. Dan Skelton’s seven year old mare (the only mare in the race) Galia Des Liteaux flopped when nicely backed at Kempton on Boxing Day in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase having clouted the second and if able to over look that effort can be a player here. Local handler Skelton is going through a rather quiet spell at the moment by his high standards with just the one winner in the his last 26 runners but I’ll take him to small stakes to defeat the favourite.   GALIA DES LITEAUX 1 point win @ 5/2 William Hill     Kempton 2.05 Pic D’Orhy is likely to be a warm order here for the 2m 4 1/2F grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase named after his old stable mate trained by Paul Nicholls. He may well win this but I don’t think he’s any value at the prices with the ground so soft and also carrying a 6lb penalty for his recent victory at Huntington, the Peterborough Chase. Official ratings don’t even have him top rated here with Paint The Dream holding that accolade. A very easy winner at Newbury in November he should be thereabouts today with his owners son Conor Brace riding. We also have a pair of smart re-appearing chasers in Angels Breath who’s now with Sam Thomas having left Nicky Henderson and being off for 1,121 days and Tom George’s Clondaw Castle who’s coming here on the back of a break of 420 days. It’s hard to fancy either after such a long lay off and are easily dismissed. Coole Cody beat the hard pulling Saint Calvados in a match at Ascot eight weeks ago and is now 2lb worse off for 10L. David Maxwell owns and rides the latter and was badly shown up on him in that race and it would be no surprise if that’s the case again here despite the horse wearing a first time hood. I want to be against Pic D’Orhy here although he may have to win by default! I’ll go with Paint The Dream and team Fergal O’Brien.   PAINT THE DREAM 1 points win @ 5/2 bet365   Warwick 2.25 A decent renewal of the Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle, a grade two event run over 2m 5F. Stuart Edmunds’ Mexico has a bit to find with Ginny’s Destiny and is easy to dismiss but a fair chance can be given to each of the remaining six. Tom Lacey’s Ginnys Destiny is the highest rated of these and having won over course and distance back in November has to be a serious player here under Stan Sheppard. Gary Moore saddles his promising seven year old Givega who’s unbeaten having won a point to point and novice hurdles at Lingfield and Fontwell. This is a step up for him but he could be anything. Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning did us a favour when winning at Kempton on Boxing Day in a handicap and will love the heavy ground. He should be thereabouts. Knowsley Road is chasing a hat trick of wins following victories at Chepstow at the back end of last year and Paul Nicholls’ six year old who has the assistance of Lorcan Williams is another with claims. A tough race to call but I’ll stick with Grey Dawning who is reportedly highly rated by the Skeltons.   GREY DAWNING 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   Kempton 2.40 A bumper maximum field of twenty hurdlers line up for the latest renewal of the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle run over 2m 5F of the Sunbury track. The two least exposed horses head the market in Paul Nicholls’ novice Outlaw Peter who’s making his handicap debut under Harry Cobden having won at Exeter last time by just under twenty lengths and Irish raider Green Glory trained by Charlie Byrnes who impressed when winning on his handicap debut at Leopardstown over Christmas but does have to race here off of a 16lb higher handicap mark. Last year’s winner Cobblers Dream is back to defend his title off of a 10lb higher mark having finished runner up in two novice handicap chases this season. Harry Fry’s Dubrovnik Harry is another who’s been chasing this season having finished third at Exeter in November. He’s lightly raced doesn’t look that badly treated on ground that will suit. Nicky Henderson has a good record in this race and saddles a brace of runners in Pentland Hills who’s also been chasing this season and Rathmacknee (presumably the pick of stable number one Nico De Boinville). Ben Pauling saddles Quinta Do Mar who’s Fontwell win in November has been boosted since by the dual win of the runner up Irish Saint since. He was third and 4L down when falling at the last in this race last year off of the same mark and could run well at big odds. A real minefield of a race but I’ll stick with the Charlie Byrnes runner Green Glory who has to be respected coming over from Ireland.   GREEN GLORY 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Warwick 3.00 A good turnout for the feature race of the day at Warwick with fourteen going to post for the Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase run over 3m 5F. At the head of the market is a rare Willie Mullins runner away from the big festivals in Mr Incredible. He is a bit quirky (has the Timeform squiggle) and has yet to race beyond three miles. Brian Hayes is over to ride him but if he wasn’t trained by Mr Mullins would be at least double his current odds. I’ll be taking him on. Top weight Threeunderthrufive trained by champion trainer Paul Nicholls who will be watching the race from his holiday destination in the Caribean, was last seen when unseating at the first in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in November and he like Mr Incredible has yet to race beyond three miles in a race which will surely be all about stamina on desperate ground. Sam Thomas’s Iwilldoit hasn’t been seen since winning the Welsh Grand National 383 days ago and although stamina is his game may just need this. Alan King’s Notachance won this event two years ago off of a handicap mark 9lb lower today. Under Tom Cannon he should be thereabouts with no question marks over stamina and ground. He was however behind my fancy on his latest start at Bangor in November when 11 1/4L away from Richard Hobson’s Lord Du Mesnil who went without his customary headgear that day and ran a blinder to get to within 4 3/4L of Le Milos who went to on top win the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. He adores soft ground, stays well and is 3lb below his latest winning mark. An out and out stayer he looks a good each way bet to my eyes with a saver on Notachance.   LORD DU MESNIL 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 NOTACHANCE 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Warwick 3.35 The final race of the day from Ed Chamberlin and the gang is a nine runner 3M 1F class 2 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, a qualifier for the final at Cheltenham in March. Two classy Irish stayers head the weights here in Gordon Elliott’s Sire Du Berlais and CIaran Murphy’s Ronald Pump. The former ran a 8 1/2L 4th in this last year and one would imagine it will be the same scenario again with his canny trainer hoping to get the English handicapper to drop him a pound or two with the final in mind. He’s not shown much in three starts in Ireland this season anyway. It’s been awhile since Ronald Pump visited the winners enclosure (November 2019 and 19 runs) and he too is overlooked. Nicky Henderson saddles a brace in On The Blind Side and The Bomber Liston. The most interesting of the pair is the latter who ran 4th to Grey Dawning at Kempton on Boxing Day and will appreciate stepping up an additional half a mile here. The problem with him is that he is running here from 5lb out of the handicap. Charlie Longsdon’s Glimpse Of Gala is a consistent mare who looked good when beating Coquelicot at Kempton over Christmas under 7lb conditional jockey Bradley Roberts. He’s in the saddle once more and should be thereabouts. The Skelton’s Ashton Lad bolted up last time in the Becher where he was always travelling like the winner and came home 2 1/4L ahead of his field. He reverts to hurdles now and appeals as the most likely winner here off of a 3lb lower handicap mark than last time.   ASHTOWN LAD 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365   All odds accurate at the time of writing.    

No, I suspect that nothing out there can provide you with that information, the only way forward on that one would be long form form study and your own notes. But, what you can do on horse racebase is select the individual horses name and then check its weight carrying performances under different weights and on different types of going and distances etc. 

No, I suspect that nothing out there can provide you with that information, the only way forward on that one would be long form form study and your own notes. But, what you can do on horse racebase is select the individual horses name and then check its weight carrying performances under different weights and on different types of going and distances etc. 

Quite a few Stable Switchers running today:
Regally Blonde 12.20 Kempton 9/4 High Court Judge (USA) 6.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Lethal Industry (IRE) 12.12 Wetherby 6/1 Sherpa Trail (USA) 2.20 Lingfield 11/2 Master Sully 2.55 Lingfield 13/2 Closeness 5.30 Chelmsford City 16/1 Non Mollare (IRE) 5.30 Chelmsford City 12/1
 
 

Quite a few Stable Switchers running today:
Regally Blonde 12.20 Kempton 9/4 High Court Judge (USA) 6.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Lethal Industry (IRE) 12.12 Wetherby 6/1 Sherpa Trail (USA) 2.20 Lingfield 11/2 Master Sully 2.55 Lingfield 13/2 Closeness 5.30 Chelmsford City 16/1 Non Mollare (IRE) 5.30 Chelmsford City 12/1
 
 

Good luck today with Whizz Kid, very nice price should it oblige for you, fingers crossed. I tried having a go and put my own profiler up this morning on horseracebase and ended up with Scarface, Hermes Boy and Mark of Gold, with the last named has a claimer on it ? Not expecting much as you seem to be more of an expert at it than me, despite being with horseracebase for 9 years I rarely use the profiler but have started messing about with it and see where it takes me. Good luck.

Quite a few Stable Switchers running today:
Regally Blonde 12.20 Kempton 9/4 High Court Judge (USA) 6.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Lethal Industry (IRE) 12.12 Wetherby 6/1 Sherpa Trail (USA) 2.20 Lingfield 11/2 Master Sully 2.55 Lingfield 13/2 Closeness 5.30 Chelmsford City 16/1 Non Mollare (IRE) 5.30 Chelmsford City 12/1
 
 

Quite a few Stable Switchers running today:
Regally Blonde 12.20 Kempton 9/4 High Court Judge (USA) 6.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Lethal Industry (IRE) 12.12 Wetherby 6/1 Sherpa Trail (USA) 2.20 Lingfield 11/2 Master Sully 2.55 Lingfield 13/2 Closeness 5.30 Chelmsford City 16/1 Non Mollare (IRE) 5.30 Chelmsford City 12/1
 
 

Good luck today with Whizz Kid, very nice price should it oblige for you, fingers crossed. I tried having a go and put my own profiler up this morning on horseracebase and ended up with Scarface, Hermes Boy and Mark of Gold, with the last named has a claimer on it ? Not expecting much as you seem to be more of an expert at it than me, despite being with horseracebase for 9 years I rarely use the profiler but have started messing about with it and see where it takes me. Good luck.

Quinta do mar     2 40  Kem       £25 ew  18/1       { extra places }    1/20th of a pt staked
Cool Cody            2 05  Kem      1/20th   of a pt win    20/1
Volcano                3 00 War        1/20th of a pt win      25/1
Mexico                 2 25 War         1/20th of a pt  win     16/1
Rebellious Gale   1 37 Faiy/         1/20th of a pt win      10/1
 
 
P/L    + 159.10 pt

Good to see you back on here

Good luck today with Whizz Kid, very nice price should it oblige for you, fingers crossed. I tried having a go and put my own profiler up this morning on horseracebase and ended up with Scarface, Hermes Boy and Mark of Gold, with the last named has a claimer on it ? Not expecting much as you seem to be more of an expert at it than me, despite being with horseracebase for 9 years I rarely use the profiler but have started messing about with it and see where it takes me. Good luck.

This Saturday’s big handicap is the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton. This event is named after the top-class racehorse Lanzarote who twice won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton as well as the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in 1974.
William Henry won this in 2018 before going on to win at the same distance at the following year’s Cheltenham festival at 28/1. Ibis Du Rheu was 3rd in this before winning at that year’s festival at 14/1.
The race is run over 2 miles and 5 furlongs. 20 go to post and off time is 2.40.
Many bookmakers offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
CLAIM AN ALLOWANCE
I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.
1.       I don’t normally favour inexperienced jockeys but the statistics never lie! Jockeys with claims of 3, 5 or 7lbs have won 6 times from 36 attempts. This compares to the experienced jockeys who have 3 wins from 92 attempts.
2.       It is best to sidestep those horses with obvious from. Horses that have had more than 1 win in their last 6 runs have produced 3 wins from 62 runs, those with just 1 win in their last 6 runs have produced 5 wins from 46 efforts.
3.       Horses should ideally have a reasonable rest. Those that last ran less than 24 days ago have won just once from 40 attempts, those that last ran between 24 and 61 days ago have 8 wins from 75 attempts.
Only 1 horse matches these criteria and that is WHIZZ KID. The 7-year-old-gelding is ridden by 7lb claimer Luke Scott and is currently available at 28/1 with several bookmakers who pay 6 places.
Further statistics that may prove relevant.
Those horses at the head of the betting have a poor record with no forecast favourites winning and only 1 2nd favourite winning from 21 attempts.

12.27 Blood Destiny made an impressive start for the Willie Mullins machine, won quite easily in a race where the 2nd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won. I've taken 2.1 about this one..................................................................................................................WON nice and easy ?
12.55 Makinyourmindup is short at 1.84 but looks a good prospect for the Nicholls yard, made all the last twice and with the runner up franking the form winning next time up can go in again tomorrow................................................oh dear, last hurdle blunder cost him the race, still, surprisingly went off odds against and traded to 1.17 in running.
2.32 Iroko has had just four runs under rules and open to any amount of improvement. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win here in November, a race where he was always in command and asserted near the finish for a convincing win. A few in that race reoppose tomorrow on better terms so it wont be easy, Raffertys Return blundered the last that day and was eased, has won since so will be a danger and I'm having a saver each way on Captin Zebo who is 11lb better off for an 11 length beating in that race. Iroko is around 3.2 and CZ is around 12.5 but as yet there is little liquidity for him.....................WON nicely and 3.2 was nice to get for Iroko?
 
 
In runing lay off prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.  

12.27 Blood Destiny made an impressive start for the Willie Mullins machine, won quite easily in a race where the 2nd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won. I've taken 2.1 about this one..................................................................................................................WON nice and easy ?
12.55 Makinyourmindup is short at 1.84 but looks a good prospect for the Nicholls yard, made all the last twice and with the runner up franking the form winning next time up can go in again tomorrow................................................oh dear, last hurdle blunder cost him the race, still, surprisingly went off odds against and traded to 1.17 in running.
2.32 Iroko has had just four runs under rules and open to any amount of improvement. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win here in November, a race where he was always in command and asserted near the finish for a convincing win. A few in that race reoppose tomorrow on better terms so it wont be easy, Raffertys Return blundered the last that day and was eased, has won since so will be a danger and I'm having a saver each way on Captin Zebo who is 11lb better off for an 11 length beating in that race. Iroko is around 3.2 and CZ is around 12.5 but as yet there is little liquidity for him.....................WON nicely and 3.2 was nice to get for Iroko?
 
 
In runing lay off prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.  

12.27 Blood Destiny made an impressive start for the Willie Mullins machine, won quite easily in a race where the 2nd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won. I've taken 2.1 about this one..................................................................................................................WON nice and easy ?
12.55 Makinyourmindup is short at 1.84 but looks a good prospect for the Nicholls yard, made all the last twice and with the runner up franking the form winning next time up can go in again tomorrow................................................oh dear, last hurdle blunder cost him the race, still, surprisingly went off odds against and traded to 1.17 in running.
2.32 Iroko has had just four runs under rules and open to any amount of improvement. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win here in November, a race where he was always in command and asserted near the finish for a convincing win. A few in that race reoppose tomorrow on better terms so it wont be easy, Raffertys Return blundered the last that day and was eased, has won since so will be a danger and I'm having a saver each way on Captin Zebo who is 11lb better off for an 11 length beating in that race. Iroko is around 3.2 and CZ is around 12.5 but as yet there is little liquidity for him.....................WON nicely and 3.2 was nice to get for Iroko?
 
 
In runing lay off prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.  

12.27 Blood Destiny made an impressive start for the Willie Mullins machine, won quite easily in a race where the 2nd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won. I've taken 2.1 about this one..................................................................................................................WON nice and easy ?
12.55 Makinyourmindup is short at 1.84 but looks a good prospect for the Nicholls yard, made all the last twice and with the runner up franking the form winning next time up can go in again tomorrow................................................oh dear, last hurdle blunder cost him the race, still, surprisingly went off odds against and traded to 1.17 in running.
2.32 Iroko has had just four runs under rules and open to any amount of improvement. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win here in November, a race where he was always in command and asserted near the finish for a convincing win. A few in that race reoppose tomorrow on better terms so it wont be easy, Raffertys Return blundered the last that day and was eased, has won since so will be a danger and I'm having a saver each way on Captin Zebo who is 11lb better off for an 11 length beating in that race. Iroko is around 3.2 and CZ is around 12.5 but as yet there is little liquidity for him.....................WON nicely and 3.2 was nice to get for Iroko?
 
 
In runing lay off prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.  

12.27 Blood Destiny made an impressive start for the Willie Mullins machine, won quite easily in a race where the 2nd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won. I've taken 2.1 about this one..................................................................................................................WON nice and easy ?
12.55 Makinyourmindup is short at 1.84 but looks a good prospect for the Nicholls yard, made all the last twice and with the runner up franking the form winning next time up can go in again tomorrow................................................oh dear, last hurdle blunder cost him the race, still, surprisingly went off odds against and traded to 1.17 in running.
2.32 Iroko has had just four runs under rules and open to any amount of improvement. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win here in November, a race where he was always in command and asserted near the finish for a convincing win. A few in that race reoppose tomorrow on better terms so it wont be easy, Raffertys Return blundered the last that day and was eased, has won since so will be a danger and I'm having a saver each way on Captin Zebo who is 11lb better off for an 11 length beating in that race. Iroko is around 3.2 and CZ is around 12.5 but as yet there is little liquidity for him.....................WON nicely and 3.2 was nice to get for Iroko?
 
 
In runing lay off prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.  

12.27 Blood Destiny made an impressive start for the Willie Mullins machine, won quite easily in a race where the 2nd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won. I've taken 2.1 about this one..................................................................................................................WON nice and easy ?
12.55 Makinyourmindup is short at 1.84 but looks a good prospect for the Nicholls yard, made all the last twice and with the runner up franking the form winning next time up can go in again tomorrow................................................oh dear, last hurdle blunder cost him the race, still, surprisingly went off odds against and traded to 1.17 in running.
2.32 Iroko has had just four runs under rules and open to any amount of improvement. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win here in November, a race where he was always in command and asserted near the finish for a convincing win. A few in that race reoppose tomorrow on better terms so it wont be easy, Raffertys Return blundered the last that day and was eased, has won since so will be a danger and I'm having a saver each way on Captin Zebo who is 11lb better off for an 11 length beating in that race. Iroko is around 3.2 and CZ is around 12.5 but as yet there is little liquidity for him.....................WON nicely and 3.2 was nice to get for Iroko?
 
 
In runing lay off prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.