PL_Crewman
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Posts posted by PL_Crewman
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Re: Crewman Lays Folkestone 4:10 Lucky Nellerie 10pts lay to win @ 5.00 Unplaced [+4.95] Starting Bank: 100 Current Bank: 109.90
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Re: Best Bet of the Day~Weds 27th Feb Kempton 6:20 Alucica Trainer D Shaw has been winless from the last 43 runs going into today but having booked jockey Patrick Hills looks good to end that streak. Hills has become one of the best night jockey this year thanks to his performance there last week. 6 runs for 3 wins, 1 second, and 1 third at Wolverhampton's night meets Feb 21-23. He has two night runs here for 1 second and third. win
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Re: PL_Crewman | Sports-Punter Specialist Kempton 6:20 Alucica Trainer D Shaw has been winless from the last 43 runs going into today but having booked jockey Patrick Hills looks good to end that streak. Hills has become one of the best night jockey this year thanks to his performance there last week. 6 runs for 3 wins, 1 second, and 1 third at Wolverhampton's night meets Feb 21-23. He has two night runs here for 1 second and third. 5pts ew @ 5-1 Boylesports BOG Kempton 7:50 Elegant Step Could have a good night if able to travel just like last time. She raced (Feb13) after being off for 114 days. At the end she was in 9th of 12 but it was a good effort. The race was for 7f at Lingfield (Class 5 Maiden Stakes) and she led until 2 out then no more to give in the final furlong. It was also her all weather debut and I think today being a shorter trip may suit her for a career best effort. 2pts ew @ 25-1 Bet365 BOG Kempton 8:20 Ponte Vecchio Returning to Maiden company today. Last time out was in a Handicap at Wolverhampton but was beaten a long way. The two before that was at this course (1m2f) for a 4th and 3rd (beaten 2.25 lengths) in a Classified Stakes race. He was the favorite one those the runs here so being here again at this level might just be the key to have him win. 10pts win @ 7-4 Boylesports BOG Kempton 9:20 Sailor King Has experience at this course and also a winner from this Class (4). Jockey Jim Crowley is on board and the two has 2 wins, 1 second and third from 9 runs. 5 of Sailor King's 11 7f runs has resulted in 2 wins and 3 thirds. A good each way threat and should be very good if able to run the same way as his last 7f event (Jan26) - defeated Super Frank at Lingfield by 1.50 lengths that day. 5pts ew @ 6-1 Bet365 BOG
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Re: USHR by PL_Crewman Venue Race# Selection # Aqueduct 2 Pensiveness 5 Failed as a favorite last time but that being his first run for current trainer since being claimed may be an excuse. Trainer has a good record with runners on their 2nd run since being claimed - 27% (65% in the money) from the last 71 runs. Trainer and jockey combo has a 20% strike rate from 34 runs the past 60 days. Sharp 3f workout (Feb24) - 0:35s from the gate. He is also taken down from a 50K Maiden Claimer into a 35K today. 10pts win Aqueduct 3 Wild Debutante 6 Has won both starts this year - by 5 lengths (Jan03) and 3.50 lengths (Jan30) at this course and sitance. They were also the only runs for her current trainer since being claimed last November. Taken up to a 75K event (previous high is last time at 50K) but his best Dirt Speed and Highest at this distance is fastest among today's starters. Trainer and jockey has a 67% strike rate (92% in the money) from 12 runs the past 60 days. 50pts win Aqueduct 4 On Request 2 First time starter who worked a 6f trip at 1:15s. Has been readied by an underrated first-out trainer. -By Dave Litfin 27% strike rate trainer from 768 sprint runs here the past 3 years. 5pts win 5pts place
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Re: Crewman Lays Folkestone 4:10 Lucky Nellerie Has some good rivals to worry about. Trainer Jonjo O'Neill teams up with Richard Johnson with John P McManus' Keepatem - first time blinkers might help revive his form. In very good form A Coleman is on the topweight - Coleman finished 2nd in the Red Square on a 66-1 shot. Tainer and jockey combo's of Scudamore/Scudamore and Tizzard/Tizzard also brings in good challengers with Countess Trifaldi and Ironside. N A Twiston-Davies/P J Brennan's The Gangerman is also getting some market support. 10pts lay to win @ 5.00
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Re: PL_Crewman | Sports-Punter Specialist Folkestone 2:10 Lupanar Good second-placed effort on hurdle last time out (Feb09) and this further trip is a big help. Trainer and jockey combo has 3 wins and 1 second from their last 7. Two of the last four combo runs had been in a Maiden Hurdle - 2nd of 9 (13-8F) and 1st of 11 (6-5). Lupanar gets to go with the same weight as last time (10-7) and it should him as he is the lowest weighed runner here. Racing Post Forecast is 8-11 so there must be plenty of improving expected from this one. 10pts win @ 8-11 Stan James BOG Southwell 2:20 Urban Tiger Finished 2nd of 11 last time out (Feb10) and just could not catch Fabulous Jet that day - also his chase debut. It was his first run since last May so I believ his condition is very good for today. The third-placed runner was 10 lengths behind on his last run. Should be capable of an improvement on second run since layoff. Trainer Carl Llewellyn has one win and second from his last three chasers. 10pts win @ 7-2 VC Bet Southwell 2:50 Beggars Cap Should need alot of mistakes to not win this if able to conitnue his current progress. Started the year with a 3rd of 6, beaten by 1.25 lengths and then won by a head in a Class 3 Novice Chase at Carlisle. The win was not easy so I really his chances today after showing he can do well under pressure. He is the only only runner this field of 4 that has an entry for the Cheltenham Festival. 10pts win @ 4-11 Stan James BOG Southwell 3:20 Otaire The two who finished ahead of her last time already had Handicap experiences and I think lessons from that is useful here. She's been getting better and should be able to improve once again. Jockey Robert Thornton returns after a two race absent with here and it'll help her alot. Thornton's last six hurdle runs for trainer A King finished 2-1-3-2-2-1. 10pts win @ 4-9 Bet365 BOG Wolverhampton 2:30 Wiltshire Middle draw helps chances - all 11 winners this month from the 5f216y trip had been at stall 4 to 7. Plenty of of his best efforts have come from a 6f trip - 2 wins, 1 second, and 2 thirds from 8 career runs. He won his latest (6f) at Kempton by a 1.50 length margin just 7 days ago. The two wins of trainer P T Midgley this year had jockey Micky Fenton on board - 2 from 6. Wiltshire's 65 rating of Topspeed was just short of his career best 67 on the all weather so he may have more to show today. 10pts win @ 7-2 totesport Wolverhampton 4:00 Jalons Bridewell He's raced four times this year but just unable to last the trip - 4-2-2-3, beaten 3.25, 0.50, sh d. 0.50 - all 6f trips. He is taken into a 5f race today and he will be hard to catch if still has the same attitude from previous runs this year. Drawn #3 should be useful if allowed to try an make all the runnig. The jockey who's been on the last two is again back today - last two had been for 2nd (beaten sh d.) and 3rd (beaten 1/2 length) - led most in both runnings. 10pts win @ 7-4 Bet365 BOG Wolverhampton 4:30 Dreams Jewel Three length winner last time, Southwell 1m2f. Trainer C Roberts does not have many all weather runners but Dreams Jewel may still be one to catch a winner from that stable. Roberts has only 3 wins from 43 all weather runs the past 5 seasons but all 3 was raced from at least 1m5f - Dreams Jewel (1m6f) and Llamadas (1m5f & 2m). Those 3 have come from just 16 runs from at least 1m1f - it is unknown to me what the total number of placed runs are from those 16. 10pts win @ 7-2 Ladbrokes Wolverhampton 4:30 Opera Writer Beaten 20 lengths at this course and distance last time but that being a Class 4 Handicap may just have been too much to do. His previous two was for a 2nd (Class 6) and 1st (Class 5) - both Handicaps at C&D. Forgive the last run and it makes him a serious contender to win this one. Trainer R Hollinshead is having a good year here - 5 wins from 28 - and Opera Writer is the only runner for today. Jockey T P Queally has 6 wins from 25 runs here with 4yo+ runners this year. 10pts win @ 7-2 Betterbet Wolverhampton 5:00 Little Wing Has not lost a race since paired up with jockey T P Queally - two wins from two this year, both at Southwell's 7f trip. Queally has 5 of trainer J A Osborne's 6 wins with a 3yo. Owner Mountgrange Stud has a very good record with 3yo's on the all weather the past 5 seasons - 14 wins from 66 - 9 wins from 36 at trips of 7f-1m. Little Wing won his last race by 8 lengths so connections must know what he needs to win - total of 11.50 lengths winning margin this year. 10pts win @ 1-1 Boylesports
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Re: USHR by PL_Crewman Venue Race# Selection # Philadelphia 8 Crimson Pirate 4 Unplaced - this was bad, the winner shares trainer with Crimson Pirate..but not coupled. W: 2pts [-2.00] P: 4pts [-4.00] S: 4pts [-4.00] Tampa Bay 8 Ruly 1A :clap 1st W: 3pts [+5.40] P: 2pts [+3.00] Tampa Bay 8 Thedamewantstowin 2 Unplaced W: 1pt [-1.00] P: 2pts [-2.00] S: 2pts [-2.00] -11.60 for today, should have staked more on Ruly and less on Thedamewantstowin..and just some bad choosing when not going with the other Klesaris runner at Philly. Bank: 78.40 (-21.60)
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Re: Best Bet of the Day~Tuesday 26th Feb
my best bet of the day would be ballyvaden 250 leicester. 0.5 points ew. big price and the way the race ould be run could suit very well. has the ability to win' date=' so we need to see a run to best. nce price.[/quote'] :clap Rainbow -
Re: USHR by PL_Crewman Venue Race# Selection # Tampa Bay 8 Ruly 1A Owned by Darley Stable making their career debut. Trainer Thomas Albertrani has two wins, one second, and one third from the last seven runners for Darley Stable. Albertrani has also won his last two runs here. High % jockey (Centendo D E) who has 9 wins, 10 seconds, and 4 thirds from 32 runs the past 7 days. W: 3pts P: 2pts Tampa Bay 8 Thedamewantstowin 2 May be some value with this one who is making her 2nd career start. Poor effort last time out but booking of jocky Montalvo C will surely help alot. Montalvao has won 2 of the last 7 for the trainer - total of 5 made it in the money. Trainer has a 23% strike rate with runners on their 2nd career run - 71 runs. 12-1 ML W: 1pt P: 2pts S: 2pts
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Re: PL_Crewman | Sports-Punter Specialist Lingfield 2:30 Aggelstone Rock 2pts ew @ 40-1 Bet365 BOG Unplaced: 5 of 10 [-4.00] held up mid-division, ridden 2f out, no impression over 1f out Lingfield 3:00 Martha 10pts win @ 7-2 Sportingbet Unplaced: 6 of 8 [-10.00] started slowly, behind, ridden over 2f out, soon outpaced Lingfield 3:30 Lethal 5pts ew @ 13-2 Stan James BOG Unplaced: 5 of 7 [-10.00] steadied start, settled towards rear, ridden over 2f out, no impression and never near leaders Lingfield 3:30 Benllech 10pts win @ 2-1 Stan James BOG Withdrawn Lingfield 3:30 Buxton 5pts ew @ 5-1 Stan James BOG 1st of 7 [+21.00] deduction of 30p in the pound held up 4th, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead well inside final furlong, ridden out, held on Lingfield 4:00 Joy And Pain 10pts win @ 3-1 Bet365 BOG 1st of 10 [+33.30] 10-3 SP Unofficial Results.. Through | 02 26 08 Total Runs | 306 Wins | 40 | 13.07% Places | 101 | 33.01% Profit | -414.13 Stakes | 2548.00 Average Back Price | 13.11 Lay Price | n/a Finish | 4.63 | Win & EW DNF | 9 | 2.94% Strike Rate | 22.88% Yield | -16.25%
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Re: Crewman Lays Catterick 3:10 Primus Inter Pares 5pts lay to win @ 8.20 Abandoned Leicester 2:50 Ouragan De Prairie 5pts lay to win @ 8.80 DNH: Unseated Rider [+4.95] mid-division, headway 7th, in touch when unseated rider 9th
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Re: USHR by PL_Crewman Venue Race# Selection # Philadelphia 8 Crimson Pirate 4 Third career start with the biggest concern being his 4 month vacation - won last race by 3.75 lengths (25K Maiden), 23Sep07. Trainer and jockey teamed up for a for two Allowance race at this course yesterday - they got a 3rd (race 8) and a winner by 4 lengths in race 9. Their combo record the past 60 days has 20 runs for a 20% strike rate (65% in the money). The winner yesterday raced for 6f while the other had 6 1/2 - Crimson Pirate gets 6 1/2 so most of the stakes will go for the Place and Show. W: 2pts P: 4pts S: 4pts
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Re: Crewman Lays Catterick 3:10 Primus Inter Pares No topweigth has even won this event - 7 races since 1998. Might find it tough with having to go up against runners from trainer Ferdy Murphy (Media Man) and M W Easterby (Cheer Us On). Murphy won this last year and Easterby won two of the last five (2000 and 2001). There are two jockey's today who won this from the past five runnings - Tony Dobbin in 2000 and Richard McGrath in 2001. 5pts lay to win @ 8.20 Leicester 2:50 Ouragan De Prairie Been unable to last at this trip or further - beaten 39 lengths in 3m110y race at Newbury - May '07 beaten 39 lengths in 2m6f110y race at Exeter - Nov '07 beaten 25 lengths in 2m5f110y race at Huntingdon - Dec '07 Plenty of other runners who may be able to get pass him at when all is done. 5pts lay to win @ 8.80
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Re: Best Bet of the Day~Tuesday 26th Feb Lingfield 4:00 Joy And Pain Has two wins from the last three runs - 3 from last 5. Last three wins have come at this course and distance - 5 of 6 all weather wins are from the C&D (from 14 C&D runs). Should do well once again. Trainer and jockey are both in good form. Trainer M J Attwater has one win and two seconds from the last four runners. Jockey Ian Morgan won his last two runs going into today. 10pts win @ 3-1 Bet365 BOG
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Re: PL_Crewman | Sports-Punter Specialist Lingfield 2:30 Aggelstone Rock Only 6th of 10 (beaten 5.75 lengths) here last time but it was a decent run for the first career run at this course. He tried pretty hard and that day but just could not last the whole 7f trip. This second time at the C&D should be a bit easier and the price looks good to take a chance. Today will be his first race since last October but trainer W G M Turner currently has a good record this year - 27 runs for 3-8-2 (W-2-3). 2pts ew @ 40-1 Bet365 BOG Lingfield 3:00 Martha Only two scheduled runs for Seb Sanders today and I like his chances with Martha today. Sanders currently has 4 wins from 15 runs with a 3yo this year - 2 others finished second and 1 third. Martha has two career starts (both this year) and her latest suggest a return to this trip is suitable. She never troubled the leaders to snatch third-place and still looked full of running. The winner was 2.50 lengths ahead of second-place but he was the only 4yo in the field so Martha's 2 lengths defeat from the 2nd horse (8-11F) still looks good. 10pts win @ 7-2 Sportingbet Lingfield 3:30 Lethal Should be able to make all the running if able to run like last time - led until over 2f out, ridden 2f out, weakened inside final furlong (7f here). He has 8-13 to carry and that is down from 9-2 last time. Penultimate run had 8-12 and he was beaten by just 1.75 lengths that day. Jockey Paul Hanagan is again on board like last time so I think he's familiar to what Lethal needs to do for a winning run today. 5pts ew @ 13-2 Stan James BOG Lingfield 3:30 Benllech Enjoying his latest stint at this course and distance - 1-1-1-2-1 since last December. There really is not alot of difference today from his latest runnings and I think he will do well. Once again drawn on the inside and his previous two was from draw 2 just like today. Jockey is still the same and will be be for the seventh straigth race after this. 10pts win @ 2-1 Stan James BOG Lingfield 3:30 Buxton Had a form of 4-4-3-8 at the C&D until winning there last time out (Feb04) by a time 0.52s faster than the Racing Post Standard. Taken up one Class but I think he can give Benllech a good challenge if able to recproduce his latest effort. Buxton's win was timed at 1m 10.68s and the best time from any of Benllech's win was 1m 10.71s on December 30, 2007 and just 1m 12.24s last time out - Feb14. 5pts ew @ 5-1 Stan James BOG Lingfield 4:00 Joy And Pain Has two wins from the last three runs - 3 from last 5. Last three wins have come at this course and distance - 5 of 6 all weather wins are from the C&D (from 14 C&D runs). Should do well once again. Trainer and jockey are both in good form. Trainer M J Attwater has one win and two seconds from the last four runners. Jockey Ian Morgan won his last two runs going into today. 10pts win @ 3-1 Bet365 BOG
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Going to try and keep track of some Lay selections. I'll start with a bank of 100pts tomorrow and see how this lasts. :hope
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Re: USHR by PL_Crewman Grandeza Unplaced -10.00 Jockey changed to Bravo J - it was supposed to be Trujillo E. :\
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Re: Plumpton 25/02
:clap:clap2.50 Pentasilea Ran well on hurdle debut after a lay off running on the flat and can go one better here today . She receives weight from most of the field this afternoon and along with her capable jockey's 7lb claim, she must have a good chance off her feather weight. 9/2 4.50 Georges Boy Pulled up on Saturday when sent off Jf at 13/2 over 3m2f at Chepstow. Must have some abilty to go off Jf with some decent runners in that race and the fact that connections are putting it back so quick, they must think it will run a big race. 4/1 -
Re: USHR by PL_Crewman Venue Race# Selection # Gulfstream 3 Grandeza 9 First run new stable. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a 22% strike rate (52% in the money) for new runners on their first run - from last 120 runs. Trainer and jockey has a 36% strike rate (50% in the money) from 14 runs the past 60 days. Not been raced since 06Dec07 but trainer has a 20% strike rate with runners being away from 46-90 days - from last 285 runs. Should be good enough to get in the money so I suggest a majority of the bet for the place and show - small stake for the win. Win: 1pts Place: 4pts Show: 5pts
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Going to post all my US Horse Racing selections here.. Starting Bank 100pts - thread closes if all is lost :ok
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Re: PL_Crewman | Sports-Punter Specialist Hereford 2:30 Freddy's Star 3pts ew @ 14-1 Stan James BOG Unplaced: 6 of 16 [-6.00] mid-division, headway approaching 3 out, soon ridden, weakened after 2 out Hereford 2:30 Heartsanddiamonds 2pts ew @ 66-1 Stan James BOG Unplaced: 6 of 16 [-2.00] 100-1 SP mid-division until weakened after 3 out Hereford 4:30 Willing Weasel 3pts ew @ 18-1 Blue Square Unplaced: 4 of 15 [-6.00] held up behind, headway after 10th, close-up, ridden 2 out, soon one pace Plumpton 2:20 Coast Of Malabar 2pts ew @ 66-1 Bet365 BOG DNF: Unseated Rider [-4.00] mid-division, mistake and unseated rider 4th Plumpton 2:50 Pentasilea 5pts ew @ 11-2 Stan James BOG 1st of 12 [+33.00] tracked leaders, ridden to lead approaching 2 out, ran on well Plumpton 2:50 Huguenot 5pts ew @ 13-2 Sportingbet Unplaced: 7 of 12 [-10.00] led, ridden, headed approaching 2 out, weakening when mistake last Plumpton 2:50 Knight Of Light 3pts ew @ 18-1 Blue Square DNF: Pulled-Up [-6.00] mid-division, awkward jumps 1st and 2nd, pulled up, dismounted soon after 2nd Plumpton 3:20 Single Player 2pts ew @ 25-1 William Hill DNF: Pulled-Up held up mid-division, mistake 5th and 6th, driven, behind from 8th, pulled up after 9th Plumpton 3:50 Cutting Crew 10pts win @ 6-4 Bet365 BOG 3rd of 11 [-10.00] led and soon clear, ridden and mistake when headed 2 out, one pace Plumpton 3:50 With Speed 2pts ew @ 20-1 Bet365 BOG Unplaced: 9 of 11 [-4.00] held up, ridden after 5th, weakened 3 out Plumpton 5:20 Spud 10pts win @ 7-2 Totesport Unplaced: 5 of 10 [-10.00] Wolverhampton 4:10 Jal Music 10pts win @ 9-4 Boylesports BOG 2nd of 8 [-10.00] led, ridden well over 1f out, headed well inside final furlong, kept on Wolverhampton 4:10 Super Al 3pts ew @ 12-1 Bet365 BOG Unplaced: 8 of 8 [-6.00] dwelt,held up towards rear, ridden over 2f out, never dangerous Wolverhampton 4:40 Schelm 10tps win @ 4-1 Betfred Unplaced: 3 of 7 [-10.00] slowly into stride, held up in rear, keen, headway over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong Unofficial Results.. Through | 02 25 08 Total Runs | 301 Wins | 38 | 12.62% Places | 99 | 32.89% Profit | -444.43 Stakes | 2504.00 Average Back Price | 13.12 Lay Price | n/a Finish | 4.65 | Win & EW DNF | 9 | 2.99% Strike Rate | 22.59% Yield | -17.75%
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Kempton 27/2
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted