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Grex

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    Grex's SAM System - 124 bets -1% yield

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by Grex
    English !!

    A good start for the 1-X-2 selections - 52% ROI. A marginal profit for the "correct score" system - only one winner out of eight. I suppose this is to be expected with odds of 5.5 to 8.5. It will be a roller-coaster ride - but let's see how it goes.

    Summary of results in the table below, plus a selection for Sunday. Unfortunately, SAM's predictions for Monday's game are not published yet, so I will post again on Monday morning.

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    Grex's SAM System - 124 bets -1% yield

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by Grex

    I have been around on this Forum for a long time – and have published various systems with varying degrees of success :\

    Previously, I have usually tried to develop my own statistical system for predicting the results of matches. However, this system is different in that it “piggy-backs” on the predictions of SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) – developed by Ian McHale, a professor at the University of Liverpool. The predictions apply only to the English Premier League. As SAM’s predictions are published on the BBC website, I hope that I am not infringing any copyright rules by using them.

    Basically, my system takes SAM’s predictions for 1-X-2 and compares the projected probability with published odds on Bet365 in order to calculate odds “value”. Then, by applying cut-off limits to the “value” and to the odds themselves, the system selects games on which to bet 1-X-2.

    SAM also predicts the most likely score-lines, and I have included these in the system as a test.

    I have followed the system for a very limited number of games in the EPL this season – there are gaps in the coverage, when I failed to get access to SAM’s predictions. The performance is good, but obviously with limited data.

    The table below shows the results to date, and the selections for Saturday’s games. I stress that this is still very much in the testing phase, and I recommend that nobody risks their hard cash until the system demonstrates profit (if any) over a longer period.

    I will update the table after Saturday’s games, and include selections for the games to be played on Sunday and Monday (SAM’s predictions are not yet available).

    Wish me luck :hope

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