Tulenos
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Posts posted by Tulenos
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Re: Under 2.5 using betfair It is often said that going under or selling the number of goals leads to profit. Averages are averages and as odds said, without counting the probability of each outcome, you may be done in a couple of matches. The very same would apply to indiscriminate backing of overs. I guess the one who claim to make a living on it are exactly the ones backing ANYTHING @ some price and laying it minutes later as soon as the price drops by 0.05, 0.1 or the like. Generally said, although there is not anything like the universal truth, you should follow another of Harvey's thoughts -- sure the goals will dry out a little bit as the season progresses, especially during the winter when they are generally at a premium. The thing why under is nice priced is that an average punters can't or doesn't want to see a match without goals.
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Re: Next Euro Qualifiers + Prices Query? Potential Tip too Just wanted to add the last time I saw "free money" in this section was for Spain away and Italy away -- in Wales. The thing that worries me is called overmotivation (Italians simply have to win) which never adds anything. Also doubt Finland will do their best to win with almost nothing to play for but pride and a chance to help other minnies to eliminate a hated giant. After all, the books would never offer such a gift, especially not on Italy at home. Also agree with Kojic re the odds for Macedonia as they made a result in England, the English squad is a kinda mystery, they are at home and the odds are like for Malta or so. definitely value if nothing else. Asian handicap is another option, better one it seems. I'm considering Eire, Venezuela, Argentina and Holland (double 1.28 x 1.20 - 1.54 for two bankers ain't bad)
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Re: Horse racing system The strike rate of odds-on favs is actually very high itself, the trick is to avoid the ones that get beaten. Another question is how much you would risk on a heavily odds-on shot.
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Re: 0-0 HT A bit too harsh and based on one game, it looks (I mean especially re goals). In fact, the Brazil game has been the only one so far which even didn't look like a goalfest. Two matches went over and how the France v Col game finished under is beyond me. Brazilians are shades of their former selves, that's right, but if you watched the game you have to admit it was extremely difficult to break the defence which was formed in two zone rows and very well organised. The thing is the Brazilians probably didn't expect it. But then, Cameroon did their best to do the scoring all by themselves (even in injury time) and were a bit unlucky.
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Re: France 1 Columbia 0 MC Roller -- Colombia have just made it six matches in a row with one big fat zero in the column of scored goals. To be fair, was it not for the dubious penalty, the match would almost sure produce a 0-0 result. Not even sure France got a shot on goal in the second. Colombia were positive, that right, but only in the second half. The price I expect in their next match will probably be on the skinny side, we'll see. As long as they get at least a goal, they'll win.
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Re: toulon tournatment Thursday matches -- well, don't know why I didn't back Burkina Faso as I liked them in the first match so much and they were available at about 3/1 only to romp home with a 4-0 scoreline today. How Colombia and Italy (1-1 today) can be co-leaders of their group is just beyond me -- two poorish and very difficult to watch sides and both have 1 (undeserved) win and one draw under their belts. BTW, another draw @ HT makes it 4 draws out of 6 HT so far (available @ Betfair).
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Re: toulon tournatment and under 21s Betfair offers all kinds of bets from HT result to FT result, incl. cor. score HTFT and Next goal. The amounts are ridiculous though as well as the odds on offer.
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Re: toulon tournatment and under 21s Thanks for the info -- so it's three out of four first halves with 0-0 scoreline or draw if there is a bookie accepting bets on HT result.
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As of now, the only info re the Toulon tourny is to be got by watching the games as such as even eurosport.com don't bother to put up any info on their site. Alas, most of them are ridiculous stuff. Yest Burk Faso v Colombia 0-2 (0-0 HT) after BF were a much better team with at least one clear-cut chance Italy v Mexico 3-2 (1-2 HT) after Mex were much better for 2/3 of the match. If there was an outright market, I'd sure lay Italy. Today: Port v Eng 3-0 (if anyone know HT result, I'd be grateful if you post it here). Didn't watch. Argies v Japan 1-0 (0-0 HT) But the Argentinians were pretty awful and the whole thing was probably the worst match so far -- a midfield battle with Japan more willing to play but lacking the skill and the Argies sitting back and struggling in creating anything. In fact, Arg made some good money for me in the past, I mean their youth teams, but I'll give a miss to this one unless they get much better soon. All info / opinions invited here.
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Re: Malta v Cyprus : Pick of the Round? Just checked -- the only close game Malta have played so far in their group was away to Cyprus (2-1 Cyprus with a very late winner). Although Malta haven't won at home, Cyprus haven't won away. The best odds you can get on the web are about 1.65. Another thing is Cyprus are also without a chance of qualifying so this makes the game more like a friendly of two islanders. Doubt I'll have a go myself, but good luck to all anyway.
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Re: Malta v Cyprus : Pick of the Round? Worth checking H2Hs if available (haven't done it myself). Unlike San Marino, Malta like to bother at times. for instance they are a bogey team for Czechs who usually struggle to get a result although fancied to cruise it. Comparing results from matches with France is not enough to make it a pick of the round, imo. All in all, cyprus are pretty poor themselves.
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Re: Big Hitting on the in running betting??? Asked who the people willing to back @ nonsense odds are some way back and now I can see there is at least one. It's a sure fire way to hell. Was going to mention the best know examples but they have already been mentioned. Plus -- not only draws, there are also wins of the opposite side and not that rare (ManU v AV, L'pool was not that far @ Basel). Just after one big (but how much can you earn for a veeeery big stake???) successful bet don't think you've found the way. I personally got burnt some time ago in tennis after 6-1. 3-0 scoreline with the bet going tits up in a matter of minutes -- and learnt my lesson.;)
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Re: China-Brazil : Bet of the Season? David--you may well be pretty disappointed as this is a typical match which will draw very little attention or none at all. It's too early and it's well-hidden now they removed live events from their front page. Notoriously, these matches are low-turnover overall and as soon as the match starts, most of the bets disappear until some weird prices are offerered after a sibgle goal is scored. Maybe I'm wrong, but this is my experience with low-profile matches.
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is that impossible-to-get-rid-of banner of Casino-on-the-net doing here. Don't get me wrong, nothing against advrtising as such, but this is a bit too much... Cheers.
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Re: 400 members Hooray. I'd say it's getting a must to be on this site given the valueable tips posted here. :)
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Re: A "Spam" forum Just what's been said - this kind of forum is definitely the one spammers would avoid and the rest would be free just to discuss how bad etc. spamming is. Not sure if this is the best way to fight spamming...
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Re: Swedes & Swiss Well, I'm not sure if these bargains are offered too often. IMHO, the bookmakes simply copy the native ones and add something... On the other hand, those minor leagues in the north, especially the Norwegian one, tend to be full of bankers - of course in case you choose carefully.
Under 2.5 using betfair
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Under 2.5 using betfair It will definitely even out in time, Odds, no doubt. I daresay if you drop notorious over-makers like ManUtd you may get slighly above evens by backing unders. Anyway, why not choose the likes of Bolton (Prem) and follow them for some time. They, together with WBA two seasons ago seem to be the most reliable under-makers and have made me a bit of cash. There are more teams like them. Re fancy prices - you are probably talking about live events as most usual games are offered at slightly better (or even worse) prices than best bookies'. Definitely true about fancied outcomes, even unders.