ken678
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Posts posted by ken678
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ September 2009 Sponsored by Stan James 3:10 Newton Abbot - Keogh's Bar - Currently about 5s with Ladbrokes and others this 5YO Irish visitor is an interesting runner. Piloted by McCoy attracts interest initially and if you look at the races it has run in (not always with absolute distincion it must be said) the yard obvioulsy think something of it. I am of an age that still sees 5YOs as young for chasing but the fashion in that, as in so much else, has changed oer the years so given the "collateral" infornmation - jockey - travel - race entries - the thing must be in with a shout. PS : Can I join the ne a day comp? Does this "qualify" me for entry or must I do something more ? Cheers, Ken
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Hallstatt (IRE) - Newton Abbot 2:10 - 6/1 ew Bet 365 Good class flat performer for the Johnston yard and did enough on its first run over hurdles to suggest it has a future at this game. Probably needed that run after a lay-off so optimistic this is one of those "free bets" that pop up from time to time -sporting chance of a win but very disappointed if the place bit doesn't cover the cost of the bet if it doesn't.
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Re: Hamilton 24th Aug First Swallow ew 14/1 BetFred This is another time I am sure I am missing something. Obviously a bit doggy but has the form to win this and is dran to perfection on muddy ground which it appears to favour. Can't understand why its not 5/2 - though, as ever, I no doubt will come 5.30!!
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Re: York Ebor Meeting Day 3- Thursday York: 1:45 - Alrasm - 14/1 ew - Coral The Jarvis clan are well represented here and I hope I am going with the right member. The selection has as good credentials as any here (though as always in a race like this you can make a case for many) but I am tilited in its favour by the fact that it appears to be attracting some worthwhile support in the market
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Re: York Ebor Meeting Day Two - Weds 3:25York: Nanton50/1 BetFred The ususal puzzle for this great old race. Many obviously with chances but I think this has as good a chance as most and Fred I think is being generous at 50/1. Tipped this before when it just (well 2 1/2 lengths)got beaten into second in a decent race at Haydock - with a Stoue favourite behind. Think the Stoute runner will be a big factor here too - even with its lumpy top weight - but 50/1 on the selection sets the eyes twinkling
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Carlisle: 3:15 Ducal Regancy Duke 100/1 5f ploughing up the hill at Carlisle will take some getting today and I would NOT be backing ANY 5f specilaists in any races there today. The fav here has an obvious chance but I am attracted to the fact that this (pretty poor it must be said) horse has been running over much further. By no means a confident pick but in all the circs 100/1 in a claimer in the mud at Carlise looks over generous to me
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5:40 Stratford - Oxus - Betfair 249/1 Back when Job was a lad (and pre the odd divorce!) I had a horse with Bill Clay. He is a wily old bird and since he was, I guess a good 10/15 years older than me then, I supppose he still is - I thought the old boy had retired (or died) but I see he has has had the very occasional runner, including something which seemed to have run quite well the other day. Oxus is no world beater but has run respectably and, for competition purposes, will certainly take the Betfair 250 (silly price) - tho in real life I will have a groat each way where about 50s seems the top offer. Certainly will mark this forward - a seller at Uttoxeter later maybe after it gets its handicap mark?
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Re: Beverley 13th Aug Beverley: 5:00 Grethel 16/1ew Paddy Power Has a feeling in my water for a while that the beleagured Berry yard will land a touch some time soon - and this far it has been pretty expensive water! This thing though gives the impression that it could be better than it seems - is perfectly drawn and has, at the very least, as good a rider as any in the race. It is also being nibbled ay (somebookies are lower price currently than Betfair) so this rings all my bells - probably means bread and water for the rest of the month!
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Re: Redcar 9/8/09 Redcar: 2:40 Antipodean 26 Bet 365 At least as good as any in here and being nibbled at - ew value at the price
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Re: Leicester 9th Aug Feeling Stylish - Leicester: 2:50 -28/1 Betfair Leicester seller in th e mud - Tinkler horse that has been running over all sorts of distances - top(ish) jockey on board, bits of form as good as anything else in a ropey field......ahh manna from heaven.
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Re: Newton Abbot - 2nd August Oops -- sorry
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Newton Abbot: 3:00 Black Mogul VC Bet 8/1 Another day, another poor seller and probably another poor selection! Has snippets of form that put it in with a chance here and I always take note these days when old Reg sends out a runner a long way from home. Looking at this field I bet there are two or three groups of connections in a ferment of excitement, anticipating their touch, and (not to be spoken aloud) two or three others who will not be totally suprised when they finish out the back. Aah the fun of sellers!
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Newton Abbot: 3:00 - Planetarium 12/1 ew Blue Square Won and second over 1m2f at NEWMARKET (in a £15,000 race)as a two year old when with Mark Johnston so on that form could pick this lot up and carry them over the line. Presumably did a leg or something to account for stable change and subsequent abysmal hurdle runs and would have thought that 2m 1f was a bit short over timber given its flat form BUT .... so much better than the rest if you have a bet in this race it has to be this one....maybe a race best left but if it regains 25% of previous ability - and its only 4 - will hack up.
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Re: Glorious Goodwood Day 4 Goodwood 16:35 - King's Approach (IRE)- 50/1 SportingBet Last run too bad to be true - well drawn - extra distance will help. Again no certainty but 50/1 looks way over ths top - and can't discount anything of Hannon's at the moment.
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Tarvini - 3.40 Bangor - Betfair 80 By no meams a certainty but grossly overpriced I think - don't beleve the JP/JJ'O team have a horse in the yard bad enough to justify80/1 in a scrubby novice hurdle at Bangor
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Re: Epsom 30th July (eve) Epsom 19:00 - Gold Diamond (USA)-4.33 Blue Sq Ran in a much better race than this at Newmarket last time and though it hasn't shown a huge amount in its two runs they were bith much better class and with support coming for it can see a quick Johnston double a few hundred miles apart.
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Musselburgh 18:45 - Bahraj (USA) 2.66 Betdaq The experts say he will come on for his initial run and won't have to improve much to win this. Provided the Johnton yard isn't suffering from the effects of celebrating all their recent good winners should be another nailed on
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Re: Epsom 30th July (eve) Epsom 18:25 King Supreme (IRE) 2.25 Sky Pretty ordinary race for the course and the Hannon runner looks good enough - price is a bit skinny - buy that maybe reflects the confidence!!?
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Re: Glorious Goodwood Day 2 Goodwood 16:00 - Sabotage (UAE) Corals 12/1 The stable is on fire and this ran a cracker last time. Obviously an open race but I am suprised - and a bit but not terminally - put off by the price. Thought it would be in single figures. Will "in real life" mix up all the Johnston runners in f/c and tricast bets - can see him having a field day here - hope I have picked the right one.
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Re: Glorious Goodwood Day 2 Goodwood 14:10 Relative Strength- 20/1 Stan James Tricky race but the horse is weighted to run close at least. The stable is in great form and as I am nowhere near a tv and will not have to put up with the trainer's appalling sister if it wins I will cross the fingers. It is a decent, though declining price - ently optimistic!
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Re: Perth 28th July Perth 21:15 - 6/1 BetFred - Don't Think Twice Hope I've picked the right one but I can't believe that the mighty Hourigan stale isnt going to pick up some pocket money over here. They have a viable option in the earlier chase but this is the one attracting some money - never a bad sign if by no means always decisive of course. Hope we should at least cover the cost with teh place money
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Re: Worcester 28th July Worcester 20:50 Princely Hero (IRE) 8/1 Centrebet If this was a flat race there would probably be distance betting on how far this wins by - but it isnt so there isnt!! If it can jump one hurdle in three though - which granted we don't know yet - it looks a snip at the price (always the most expensive!).. This is a pretty poor race - I like sellers & this is virtually one - so take a chance on jumping & fitness. Wouldn't rule out the JJ runner at this desperate level - will have a groat reversed for the forecast
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Re: Perth 28th July Perth 20:45 Nudge And Nurdle 7/1 Coral This is a hot little race for the money and all bar 1 in my book have a sensible chance of some sort. The Twiston-Davies yaard enjoy their summers North of the Border though and rarely take anything absolutely hopeless. To be honest I would have rated this 5th best of the 7 but at 8/1 it is being supported and because of the T-D record I will follow the smart(?) money
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Re: Worcester 28th July Worcester: 8:20 - Two Miles West - 7.5 VC Bet Think this is another "free" bet - there are 2 or 3 seriously with a chance so I will be disappointed if we don't at least cover ourselves on teh place money. First time blinkers and McCoy on board suggest that the horse is not in for a peaceful evening - lets hope the blinds and the best together work the oracle
Haydock 5th Sept 2009
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 3:30 Haydock - Al Qasi (IRE) - General 40/1 ew I am praying for more rain - if it comes the high numbers have a huge advantage at Haydock and I would put any of the highest 4 or 5 drawn in a hat and really expect the winner to come from there. Of those though only two have won on soft or softer the selection and Dandy Nicholls runner. I am swung in favour of AL QASI (but only just) by the facts that it looks really to be a 7f horse these days (and this trip will take some getting for some of these) and probably just clinched by the eyecatching jockey booking.