ken678
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Posts posted by ken678
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Re: Ayr 31st October Ayr 4:25 - Seaquel – 25/1 (ew) SportingBet Yard in good form – and the horse has bits of form entitling it o go well here. They certainly don’t mind travelling in search of a winner – it ran last at Brighton – nearly as far from Ayr, racecourse wise, as you can get. Eyecatching jockey beooking too - hopeful
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Re: Newmarket 30th Oct Coin from Heaven – Newmarket 1.50 – 25/1 Bet365 The stable is in great form and any runner demand respect at the moment. That having been said the bare bones of the form doesn’t look up to this however it met trouble in running when winnings its modest maiden at Redcar a few days ago. Would be a major surprise I suppose but a place at least looks a reasonable possibility
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Re: Uttoxeter 30th Oct Cobbler's Queen (IRE) -3.25 Uttoxeter – 8/1 BetFred From a yard always demanding respect – Henry Daly, with a first class jock on board – Tinkler , a featherweight to carry and with the form in the book the selection looks a sound pick. The only slight cause for concern is the quite large gaps between runs – suggesting there may be soundness problems. Finishing sound I think we have every chance.
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Re: Uttoxeter 30th Oct James Pollard -2.50 Uttoxeter – 25/1 SportingBet This is a poor contest and the pick has some acceptable flat form in this company. Intersting that the bookies are all over the place with the price – suggesting it has been backed in some quarters – andthis is a yard that has been known to have the occasional touch in sellers. Optimistic
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Re: Wolverhampton 29th Oct (AW) (Late Afternoon Card) Rising Prospect - 7.00 Wolverhampton – 7/2 SportingBet (ew) Any horse thought by as competent as yard as the Moore’s to be group class a handful of runs ago that now finds itself in a Class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton with Cumani must be in with every chance. The horse won a £17,000 nursery at Ayr last back-end and probably needed its last run here where it was backed and eased when beaten. Every chance
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Re: Wolverhampton 29th Oct (AW) (Late Afternoon Card) Casablanca Minx (IRE)- 8.00 Wolverhampton – 11/1 SportingBet (ew) Another horse moved by the owners from Gay Kellaway to Juckes – the new trainer having a very quiet time at the moment. Horses sometimes perk up briefly for a move and certainly the horse will find the relaxed atmosphere around a small rustic Worcestershire yard a good deal different from the hustle & bustle of what is now quite a big Newmarket stable. Well drawn and with a useful deduction for the services of a capable claimer, the horse must have chances.
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Re: Wolverhampton 29th Oct (AW) (Late Afternoon Card) Fringe Success - 6.30 Wolverhampton – 7/1 Bet365 (ew) Still can’t get used to Sir M slumming it at Wolverhampton on a miserable Thursday evening. (Not that I am saying he will be there himself). And this is an interesting horse itself – owned by more blue bloods – the Ballymacoll Stud and bred in the purple – but bred to get 3 miles in the mud at Towcester, or more likely for the Ascot Gold Cup. I mentioned before jokingly that I thought Sir M had had a beer with Sir Mark about these longer distance horses and you do wonder whether this is just running for next year’s handicap rating. Despite all that I prefer to lose a groat by backing it than to say to myself at 6.40 how could you miss a Stoute winner at Wolves on a Thursday night!
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Re: Lingfield 29th Oct (AW) Lingfield 14:10 - Baila Me (GER)- Take SP ew Officially top rated and from the Godolphin yard which is on fire at the moment. They must have seen something they liked to buy it out of a French yard after it won what was a pretty modest affair on the face of it. It has run reasonably in the two runs for the new yard and now ought to be capable, fitness wise, of running up to its best - lets hope that the Godolphin view that that is good enough is confirmed.
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Re: Lingfield 29th Oct (AW) Lingfield Park: 2:40 - Russian Empress (IRE) - Bet365 (ew) 25/1 On the book this appears outgunned - and indeed maybe it will be - but I don't believe many yards incur all the costs of running (especially all the way from Ireland) and "waste" a run (there are only so many to be had from a horse in a season)if they think the cause absolutely hopeless. The more so when they are picking up the tab themselves - as they do here owning the horse. It obviously will lack nothing in the steerage department so 4/1 for the place looks attractive
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Re: Stratford 29th Oct Stratford-On-Avon 4:20 - Star of Angels - LAY Betfair £748 available at 12.00 Haven't seen why but there are loads of withdrawals today at Stratford - dodgy ground probably? With or without that (though it would help) the price of Star of Angels looks silly. The Gifford runner went well firsttime out over hurdles and had a good career on the flat and though it has not shown over much in NH bumpers the Twiston-Davies runner could be anything. 1/5 is a ludirous price about a horse that has regularly disappoined - albeit at a better level than this
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Re: Kempton 28th Oct (AW) (eve) Kempton Park: 6:50 -LAY - Wake Up Call - Betfair 2.18 Not a great race but the selection is a false price I think. Never bullish of horses coming down in trip - it works sometimes but not often - and there is credible opposition in the field notably the Chappel-Hyam runner but also the Spearing runner
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Re: Kempton 28th Oct (AW) (eve) Kempton 19:20 - Marine Spirit - 4.5 Paddy Power Godolphin have been in fine form and though this is one of the lesser lights a drop in the weights, first-time headgear and Frankie in the saddle make it an attractive proposition
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Re: Haydock 28th Oct Haydock 4.00 - Jaunty Times - SP Henry Daly is one of those trainers who rarely run a horse with no chance and whilst it is not known to be a great punting yard the fact that the horse is being supported is encouraging - suggesting it is match fit after a longish lay-off. If it is fully wound up it has the form and class, to win this
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Re: Haydock 28th Oct Royal Rationale - Haydock Park: 3:25 - 5.5 BetFred This looks like a poor field to me for the prizemoney on offer and the selection, abeit giving lumps of weight away, has the class to win it. It ran in the Caeserwitch last time out and although it finished in the pack it had been quite well supported so the yard obviously think it is tuned up. Sadly, on the basis of recent personal form, I feel quite confident!:)
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Re: Musselburgh 28th Oct Musselburgh 13:30 - Charity Fair - 50/1 Stan James (ew) All the controversy of 18 +/- months ago of horses being stopped and/or laid on Betfair has probably affected no-one more than Alan Berry. Whatever the rights and wrongs of that his yard seems to have been decimated both as to numbers and even more as to quality. The selection is indeed a poor looking animal on the book but it has consitently "dwelt" at the start and has shown a glimpse of form when there was a bit of cut in the ground - which it gets today. It cannot exactly be a confident prediction but at 50/1 in a 6 horse race - of for the most part similarly poor looking animals - it is a decent pick
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Re: Musselburgh 28th Oct Vertigo On Course - Musselburgh: 1:00 - 5/1 (ew) SportingBet The horse has the form in the book to win this and has 5lbs taken off its back for the services of Mrs Fahey. For all the incredible glut of winners the Fahey yard has produced lately I suspect that the services of Mrs Fahey might be withdrawn at home if Richard does not provide the Mrs with a winner here. It is a charming, if nudging vulgar, surmise that his thoughts go from leg up to leg over at about 12.55.
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Re: Yarmouth 27th Oct Rose of Coma (IRE) - Yarmouth 12:40 - EW at SP The horse has won here twice when with Gay Kellaway and for Chris Catlin. Having just moved to deepest Worcestershire it has a bit more of a hike today after its first run for the new yard here the other day (a reasonable run into 4th place a week ago). Appears to be a game and consistent sort (having won or more usually been placed, in nearly half of her 26 races) and the yard could certainly use a winner for what I believe is (certainly was) its biggest owner - the more so after having the horse transferred to it from Gay K. The booking of Catlin looks encouraging (claimer first time for yard last time).
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Re: Leicester 26th Oct 2:00 Leicester - Jewelled – ew at SP (about 12/1 currently on Betfair) The selection has run well (in lower grade races) on a number of occasions this season and might have found a winning chance here. The connections seen to be unsure of the horse’s trip (it has run over 8 and 10 furlongs thus far) so maybe the very stiff finish over 7f may be the answer. It will have every assistance from the saddle and the yard is due a change of luck having had nine placed runners this month but no winners. Looks decent value (ew) at anything like the current Betfair price of around 12/1
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Re: Leicester 26th Oct 2:00 Leicester - Jewelled – ew at SP (about 12/1 currently on Betfair) The selection has run well (in lower grade races) on a number of occasions this season and might have found a winning chance here. The connections seen to be unsure of the horse’s trip (it has run over 8 and 10 furlongs thus far) so maybe the very stiff finish over 7f may be the answer. It will have every assistance from the saddle and the yard is due a change of luck having had nine placed runners this month but no winners. Looks decent value (ew) at anything like the current Betfair price of around 12/1
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Re: Kempton 24th Oct (AW) (eve) 9:10 Kempton - Raimond Ridge 10/1 Ladbrokes Interesting that Chris Catlin gets the ride this time in place of Catherine Gannon who had the leg up last time. The horse has had a long old season - wining here as far back as February – and this is its 19th run since!! He certainly earns his corn. The last run though suggests he is still OK and “putting it in†and on that basis has at least as good a chance as anything else in here, so will be very disappointed if we don’t at least make the frame.
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Re: Kempton 24th Oct (AW) (eve) 8.40 Kempton - Leverage 13/2 BetInternet (ew), 6/1 Paddy Power I am great layer of long odds-on shots that appear to be priced far too short – and such was Leverage last time out – it went off at 4/5 here last time. It was duly beaten – by about 10l when 9th of 11 finishers. That run was obviously too bad to be true – though the horse has shown sins of temperament – and at the indicated 13/2 SP now looks over-priced to me on the form previously in the book. Would be quite worried about the top and bottom of the card but think we should get a good run for our money.
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Re: Doncaster - Sat 24th Oct - Racing Post Trophy Day Doncaster 2:20 – Fullandby - 25/1 (ew) Stan James Well drawn (it co-incidentally won the Portland Handicap from this box in 2007) and over a distance and on going which suits it best, the horse has every chance in s typically tight sprint handicap. It has had quite a long and tough season but seems to run best at this time of year and though I confess I don’t know anything about the jockey he has ridden winners for Jarvis, Vaughan, Evans, Eddery and Fahey, amongst others, in the last month so he obviously is not an unskilled garnish – and in as tight a handicap as this his 5lbs claim could be important – even decisive.
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Re: Wolverhampton 23rd Oct (AW) (eve) Wolverhampton 8:40 – Illuminative - Lay Betfair 1.47 - £426 available at 17.42 On the face of it it is hard to see what is going to beat Illuminative here – almost as difficult as it was at Kempton a fortnight ago. Notwithstanding that it managed to get beat and the same might well happen here. As I say it is , on the face of it a pretty poor race, but there is a newcomer from Hollinshead and both the the Bethell and Jarvis entrants might come on for their last runs so the ability to lay at 1.46 on Betfair looks a chance worth taking
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Re: Wolverhampton 23rd Oct (AW) (eve) Wolverhampton 8:10 - Epic - 6.5 (ew) SkyBet Another (very) late foal so fully entitled to continue improving for some time yet. On official ratings fully in the mix as it is so the indicated price at around 8/1 looks a tempting ew prospect. Any Johnston runner on the all weather on a Friday night warrants inspection so we will take our chance – though the draw is a negative and I would think it would like much further in due course. Not that I am sure the horse knows – or indeed that it makes the remotest difference to anything – but I think his mum came from just down the road so maybe the home town yam yam accent will galvanise him!
Kempton 3rd Nov (AW)
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Kempton 3rd Nov (AW) Fullandby - Kempton 4:20 - 8/1 (ew) Bet365 Ran a cracker to finish a heavily backed 4th in a big Doncaster handicap last time. Not brilliantly drawn here but in my view has a little in hand on its last run and surprised its price is as much as 8/1. Well remember though saying the same on a couple of recent occasions – only to find out why later! (However I also said that about Beethoven at 80/1 so will live off that for a bit). Etherington must be getting on a bit now, like the writer, and doesn’t come South very often these days so I will take that as a tip too.